Gold Cup 2014: Towards Raceday

Energy and persistence conquer all things 

- Benjamin Franklin

Providing, of course, they have the requisite levels of residual class. The "surprise" of Synchronised made opaque the danger of a rigid mind - he had won the Grade One Lexus Chase easily after all. It would still be fair to say, however, that he took advantage of a division which in that year was sorely lacking in structural depth. That structure opened the door but his energy, persistence and class kicked it down. Other renewals were arguably more straightforward with the high class horses proving their high classness. This has been something with which First Lieutenant has struggled, winning only one of his twelve races since a fine second to Bobs Worth in the RSA Chase two years ago. His achievements in defeat over fences since winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle are notable: the RSA second with two Grade One seconds spaced out either side; second in a Hennessy Gold Cup, second in a Lexus Chase, second in a Ryanair Chase (beaten 9L by Cue Card); third in a Punchestown Gold Cup and second again in the Lexus Chase (beaten again by Bobs Worth). His solitary win in this time frame was very good but at the end of the season, when all the main hands had been played. He will need key rivals to blunder their chance away but a place is not out of the question given his admirable consistency at the Festival (122). He is, however, more than likely a probable runner in the Ryanair Chase.

Last Instalment has returned to the fray seemingly with his primary weapons in tact: residual class and jumping alacrity fired him to a Grade One Irish Hennessy win over a veteran Tidal Bay at Leopardstown. Twenty-three months prior to his comeback run at Thurles he had returned with sore legs after winning the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Chase on good ground in a manner confirming him as Ireland's premier novice chaser - Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant would fight out the RSA Chase he missed. His trainer revealed that he had "jarred both tendons" in a front leg; a year later the other leg would flare up with heat in the near-fore tendon, so fears of a good ground Gold Cup are well founded. 

His return has been impressive, albeit with some apparent overstatement in a division shorn of competition for the two big UK players. The second and third from last season's race will not appear: time and battle scars have overtaken Long Run and tendon damage this time claimed Sir Des Champs; whilst last season's novices have not proved to be of the calibre of their immediate predecessors. Last Instalment's return at Thurles (20f, Soft) was promising in so much as he ran a race that indicated he would progress from it with much of his old ability in tact. He was prominent the whole way and capable of fully tangling with the useful Texas Jack and Baily Green before being bested by those fitter, sharper rivals close home. 

In the Irish Hennessy he had progressed physically and dominated his mid-tier rivals. The intention had not been to lead but he had clearly thrived from his return race and flew the second fence to take a clear advantage, was untidy at the next, then jumped with panache for the rest of the way, if slightly right at times. The most significant aspect of this race, other than the usual metronome performance of his old Topaz Novice Chase rival First Lieutenant, was that Tidal Bay tried to race him down the far side after the tenth of seventeen fences. This was unusual because Tidal Bay is usually given a more waiting, patient ride so that he can be switched off mentally and come through horses late on, as he did to such dramatic effect when winning the Lexus Chase last season. In actual fact this still happened: Tidal Bay raced Last Instalment in a close second but soon realised that either the effort or the ability was not forthcoming and he began to steadily drop back through the field, to the point where he was joint-last and then last of the seven runners on the run to the final turn. He was a long way off the pace but still managed to pick off every horse bar the winner on the run to the line. His efforts are noted because he ensured that Last Instalment had to race proper for key phases of the second circuit. The difference in residual class levels was evident from the fact that the field were being ridden and asked to transfer energy behind the bridle approaching the final bend whereas Last Instalment simply increased the intensity of his gallop and drew away from them quite easily, shaken up to maintain his advantage and only hit with the whip close home most likely because of the nervous excitement of the jockey in victory. 

Easy Does It: Last Instalment won the Irish Hennessy comfortably but must now prove he has a level of physical rigour well beyond that shown in his novice seasons

This would not fall under the "hard race" umbrella - such a term can misleading in any case because it fails to acknowledge the fact that part of an elite horse's makeup is the toughness of mentality to race at the highest level where competition and racing is often "hard". However, the physical impact of such races can have a cumulative effect which - as well as race availability and scheduling - is why the very best horses in their division will only race around four times in a season: Last Instalment will be attempting his third race in just eight weeks and that race is the most demanding of them all. It is therefore a peculiar state of affairs that in the modern era the physiology, physicality and performance analysis of such demands is simply a matter of personal opinion without any semblance of creditable scientific data and knowledge being available. What we can say about Last Instalment is that he began his hurdles career in February 2011. He won on debut then had a seven week break. He then ran three times over the space of a calendar month and was pulled up on the third and final run of that sequence. In his novice chase season his runs were more sensibly spaced out, progressing through four runs in five months before developing tendon problems. In open company the concern is now a third race in eight weeks allied to the fact that the third race this time is the most physically demanding Graded race in the national hunt calendar. The "form" says he has beaten a thirteen year old veteran given an unusually forcing ride during a key phase of the second circuit and a horse that is continually beaten in elite company chases, but it will be his physicality that holds the key to his chance.

Nor do the concerns regarding race exertion and physicality preclude the possibility of victory. Last Instalment winning the Gold Cup would in theory provide as much insight into race performance analytics as would defeat. His two races in under a month may be a positive: building the muscular energy potential of a horse capable of being the best in the race, allowing him to run to a level that a one or three race programme may not have provided for. The salient point is not trying to predict an outcome we cannot know in advance but that the amount of agreeable, rigorous and available information to help guide that prediction is negligible. Last Instalment's quest for excellence also faces a problem beyond his own scope: the presence of two outstanding staying chasers, the Gold Cup winner and King George VI Chase winner. As the structural depth model provided pre-season and here at the end of December detailed, the two most foreboding obstacles to Gold Cup success have cemented their place in the upper echelons of the elite. 

With so much known about their quality, it can be left to others to favour either SILVINIACO CONTI or BOBS WORTH. Bobs Worth is simply fantastic. Diminutive in size but with an extraordinary ability to both keep touch with elite gallop pace and then transfer relatively huge amounts of energy behind the bridle to the point where he almost starts his own race within a race, surging in sustained fashion towards the finishing line from two or three furlongs out (depending on in-race shape). A triple Cheltenham Festival winner gunning for an unprecedented fourth consecutive success, he won the Lexus Chase impressively off a moderate gallop with his trademark energy distribution curve. One day he may wear wing-mirrors, to see the trail of destruction and desolation he leaves in his wake. But for his Haydock "experiment" he would be unbeaten in two years, although admittedly he has not raced much. 

Over and Out: Having jumped with excellent fluency in the main, Silviniaco Conti (pink) fails to lift his knees and, prior to this image, can be seen moving his lower legs through the fence at halfway; Long Run's mistake was similar; Bobs Worth had moved upsides Silviniaco Conti earlier in the race but had been outjumped, which conversely now gave him the time to swerve the fall and win decisively

Silviniaco Conti cannot boast the Festival record of his main rival but in winning the King George VI Chase impressively he added top notch staying power to his more tactically inspired, front-running Betfair Chase (2012) Grade One portfolio. A year younger than Bobs Worth, he just keeps getting better and has built towards Cheltenham this season with more substance over style than last year, where moving well and racing within his comfort zone he brushed through the top of three out and came down. Having not raced since the King George he will need to control his energy on the first circuit; in that respect the natural exuberance shown by Last Instalment at Leopardstown may see the Irish horse lead the field on the first circuit, although his connections would no doubt prefer another horse to perform that duty. It will be interesting to see the degree of tactically planning in Silviniaco Conti's run - going for home too early simply creates a target for his main rival to aim at. What his connections may have in mind is more of a controlling race akin to his Betfair Chase victory, storing as much energy as possible for deep into the race to resist the inevitable, destructive surge of the reigning champion. Closely matched in terms of ability, it is likely to be jumping and energy distribution efficiency that decides the contest.

Queen Mother Champion Chase 2014 - Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by the descending order of reference

Though nature be ever so generous, yet can she not make a hero alone. Fortune must contribute her part too; and till both concur, the work cannot be perfected

- François de La Rochefoucauld

Prior to this season nature and fortune had worked to create equine perfection; then fortune departed. Sprinter Sacre won all ten of his contests over fences by a cumulative 128 lengths all in breathtaking fashion or near enough. His absence from the race gives normal elite horses their chance to win this contest.

Although he has beaten the race favourite earlier in the season, Kid Cassidy has yet to join the elite ranks owing to the fact that he has yet to replicate that level of run - he was tailed off in the Grade One Dial-A-Bet Chase won by Benefficient on his next start. His defeat of Sire De Grugy in receipt of ten pounds was still a notable effort from a horse that had finished second in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at last season's Festival (17f, Soft). His overall profile suggests that his win had a lot to do with the conditions and aspects of his opponent's performance, which are covered below. He obviously has the talent to run well for a long way.

It is perhaps indicative of the power of the stable in which the super-elite Sprinter Sacre is housed that, with Simonsig also sitting out the season, there is an available understudy with the class of Captain Conan. He is a big, strapping horse with a lot of size and power for a two-miler, not unlike Arvika Ligeonniere. He enjoyed a prolonged, successful novice chase season where from five starts his only defeat came over the 20f distance of the Jewson Novices Chase, moving like the best horse in the race for a long way until a lack of stamina after the last left him defeated. Prior to that he had beaten Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham, beaten Hinterland at Sandown and perhaps fortuitously caught Third Intention over 21f on heavy ground again at Sandown - the race that gave rise to concerns about being able to sustain his class over extended distances. He showed no signs of distress after Cheltenham to win easily on good ground over 20f at Aintree, although the opposition was moderate. Four Graded novice race victories, three of them Grade Ones, left him primed for his transition into open company.

As is so often the case with horses of large physical size, the stress of racing does not always marry well with nature's plan of maturation and growth. Problems often arise and this season Captain Conan has raced only once when seven lengths behind Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek Chase (16f, Good), again running well for a long way. His trainer recently stated clearly that there had been problems with "low potassium levels" but whether this was as a result of treatment for other issues is unclear. In terms of winning a Queen Mother Champion Chase having not raced for over three months, his physicality is obviously compromised. It has to be taken on trust that the physical problems have been resolved, that the stress of racing will not lead to a recurrence and affect his race performance and, of course, that he is conditioned enough in elite terms to do much more than "go deep" in a race of this nature. Captain Conan possesses the requisite elite characteristics for this contest but time may prove that he will benefit from another summer of physical development before realising the levels of residual class that loiter in his profile. His two main rivals, for example, have accumulated nine chase starts between them this season, an indication of their own physical robustness and health so far.

Sire De Grugy has been a revelation, winning four of his five chase starts this term. He has not escaped physical problems either, suffering a broken pelvis in the winter of his novice chase season, a hairline fracture specifically. His connections ran out of time in their bid to prepare him fully for the Grade One Maghull Novices Chase but he showed the benefit of being back racing and working by winning easily at Stratford and then claiming the Grade Two Celebration Chase on good ground at the end of the season, all three of those runs coming in the same month, April, revealing a measure of mental and physical tenacity.

Top class horses handle almost any ground and Sire De Grugy's last two races show his desire this season to master all conditions, winning the Grade One Clarence House Chase effortlessly at Ascot on heavy ground and, prior to that, winning the Desert Orchid Chase (Sprinter Sacre pulled up) on soft ground at Kempton. "Effortlessly" is probably the wrong adjective. Sire De Grugy is not from the mould of fluid, strong travelling, glide-jumpers that often predominate in this division. For sure he has aspects of those features in his armoury but overall he gives the impression of having to work to show his excellence. He often sits off the pace in his races and his jumping - as will be pointed to below - is not always the most accurate. He obviously travels well but not for prolonged periods and his race transitions are less fluid than might be expected. In short he can appear to expend a lot of energy through his races, which makes the way in which he finishes them so strongly quite remarkable.

The one time he was caught out - the sole defeat in his last seven races - appears to have given rise to a peculiar but widespread statement that "he doesn't like Cheltenham". Given that this Shloer Chase race aside he had only raced at the track once before going down by only 2L to now-fellow Champion Chase contender Captain Conan on his second start over fences, that statement rests entirely on one performance, which is analytically odd. Not least because, although defeated, his run at Cheltenham (16f, Good) was actually impressive. For whatever reason that day Sire De Grugy did not appear able to gain traction on the surface at some of his fences and the runners were notably kicking the top off the turf. He gave the appearance of slipping as he propelled himself forward towards some of his fences, causing him to not take off from exactly where he wanted to and meaning that he felt the need to reach out his front legs for extra forward momentum. There may have been a light shower on the day; it could have been something more random but he was not at his most comfortable, which is where the impression of "not liking" the course may have arisen from.

Grip It: Only Sire De Grugy appeared to struggle with the surface at Cheltenham, nearly slipping over and unshipping his jockey after the fourth fence

Reaching: The front legs are thrust out early, indicative of reaching out to generate more distance, like a long-jumper. Reaching can require the use of more energy than usual

Almost: For a horse that it is suggested "does not like" the racecourse Sire De Grugy is leading and clear just 150 yards from the finish

With all that he was giving away ten pounds to the talented Kid Cassidy. It was a tremendous effort for an early season affair and he has not looked back since. Sire De Grugy was authoritative at Sandown in the Tingle Creek Chase (16f, Good) but again what was impressive was that despite dropping energy and momentum with poor jumps across all three railway fences - he barged through the second of them - he was still able to command relatively large amounts of energy deep into the race, powering away up the hill to win by four lengths. The extent to which he is able to summon significant amounts of energy from both the "On" and "Behind" aspects of his bridle ratio makes him a formidable opponent over two miles this season and whilst it would be no surprise to see him win this contest decisively he will need to concentrate his jumping mind because errors of momentum are likely to be punished here more than they have before.

ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE's chance may actually have been better had Sprinter Sacre turned up for the race. As with Captain Conan, Arvika Ligeonniere is a big, strapping two mile chaser with a powerful, ground devouring gallop potential. He would have benefitted the most from Sprinter Sacre's energy sapping pace, whilst Sprinter Sacre himself would have been at his most vulnerable in this race, effectively a first chase start of the season had he turned up.

When classy horses have a large frame to use a lot of their earlier career form has to be placed in the context of a physicality that is far from complete, more so than horses of lesser size. With an immature frame the task of running fast over two miles or further in soft or deep ground can have a taxing effect on the body. This is most likely what has transpired with Arvika Ligeonniere but seemingly by coincidence his third start on each of the last two seasons has been left- rather than right-handed and it is on his third start where he is most likely to be feeling the effects of his previous races. In his novice chase season his third race came in the space of seven weeks and he fell in the Irish Arkle Novices Chase won by Benefficient, something that is probably closely linked with his no-show in the Arkle at Cheltenham on his next start. None of that had any lasting effect, however, as he won the Grade One Ryanair Chase at Punchestown comprehensively that April.

Stepping into open company he was assigned his first two races on decent ground over 20f, winning the Clonmel Oil Chase comfortably despite a couple of slight mistakes and then winning the Grade One John Durkan Chase easily following the departure of Sir Des Champs early on. This time his third race came in the space of six weeks and again it can be argued that it was his most demanding race physically. His connections may have been aware of this as for some reason he was held up in rear for the early stages of the race; his jockey reported afterwards that this did not benefit a horse that is a strong galloping type. As such, his horse was asked to use his energy in a different way, to make ground from rear and then race proper, rather than using his energy more evenly in a way that hitherto had complimented his natural rhythm of prominent, powerful galloping momentum. He did everything right but could not match the winner and it was again Benefficient who profited (Hidden Cyclone second). Significant analytically is that after the last fence Arvika Ligeonniere could do nothing to affect the other two horses but that was precisely because he had been held up in rear through the early and mid stages of the race and from there also he could do nothing to affect the bridle ratios of those in front of him. Unable to impose any of his own qualities on the contest he was effectively a hostage in the race regardless of whether he was physically sharp enough to win.

Powerglide: Arvika Ligeonniere may now have realised the full armoury of his physical potential

He resumed his upward curve with an emphatic display in the Tied Cottage Chase, travelling powerfully close to the leader and effortlessly extending away. Reflecting on his only defeat of the season his jockey and later his trainer too relayed how things would be done differently at Cheltenham, confirming in their own minds at least that he was not used to best effect when beaten. This in all likelihood means that Arvika Ligeonniere will be making the running or tracking the leader closely and pressing his physical and class advantage early in the race, applying pressure to those in behind. If that is the case he will have the perfect jockey to effect a front-running, tactically adept race in which he can finally deliver on the promise of his considerable athletic prowess.

RSA Chase 2014: Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference

Success depends upon previous preparation, and without such preparation there is sure to be failure

- Confucius 

For nearly half a century trainers of RSA Chase candidates have assured themselves and those interested that a "prep run" is not required. For nearly half a century they have been wrong. The last 49 winners of this race had run in the same calendar year. In some renewals all the main players will have had a prep run, with no "fresh" candidates, which only serves to emphasize the overall point. Rigid minds. In another twenty two years or so the length of this statistical anomaly will have matched the age at which Confucius passed away. Those betting on the race who suggest they are "not bothered" by this equine sponsored educational message are deceiving themselves but it is possible that within the riddle is a deeper meaning. For sure, preparation is important, but in open company absence did not stop Bobs Worth from winning the hardest physical test of all - the Gold Cup - having not run since December 1. It is not so much that potential RSA Chase horses need a prep run, although there are clear physiological reasons why they do. It is more to do with the fact that horses that are asked not to prepare on a racecourse are either a) not actually top class novice prospects and/or b) carrying physical problems that need managing rather than exacerbating but which are then fundamentally exposed by the demands of an RSA Chase. In some way such horses are being "looked after", whilst the real/better contenders are allowed by their connections to get out and prove it. Experience of running and defeat for RSA contenders is often crucial to their development.

The honourable First Lieutenant is an interesting recent example, given that he was "fresh" for his RSA Chase in which he was beaten by Bobs Worth (who was, simply, the better horse) but over hurdles had been prepared in exactly the same way by his trainer to win a competitive renewal of the Neptune Novices Hurdle. Chasing is far more demanding, of course, and when he was runner-up in the RSA Chase he may have been fortunate that Last Instalment, who had beaten him convincingly by 6L earlier that season in the Topaz Novices Chase, and Invictus, who had beaten Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti in the Reynoldstown at Ascot, both missed the race through injury. One day, one year, sure, the winner of the RSA Chase will buck the increasingly iron-clad trend. Of the five prominent opponents in place this season, only one is arriving fresh (Morning Assembly). 

Smad Place ran for the third time this season in February and as a seven year old he may only now be maturing into his physical capacity. It could be that he is a slightly fragile type, also. The reasoning for this stems from his ten months off the track following his Triumph Hurdle season. Following his comeback in January 2012 his trainer revealed that: 

He's had some problems and we never had him right last year [2011]. He spent most of the winter on antibiotics, and although he did well in the summer, he went and threw a splint and we couldn't get him ready.

He subsequently recorded a respectable third to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle, but was again presumably experiencing problems at the start of the 2012-13 season (beaten 39L in his two starts) and only came right in the Spring, with solid third placings to Solwhit at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. It is therefore likely that he summered well and was strong enough to begin a novice chase campaign but this time misfortune constrained him: he unseated with the race at his mercy on his chase debut and after winning comfortably on his next start his stable had to be closed down due to problems affecting many runners. He reappeared in February at a near-waterlogged Newbury to beat Sam Winner by 2L but whilst this was again meritorious he did not stamp the authority of a top novice prospect on his rival and goes to Cheltenham without experience at Graded chase level. 

Right Place What Time? Smad Place has run his best races in the second half of the season to date

That said for whatever reason Smad Place does seem to come to himself in the second half of the season. As well as overall class the question mark for the athletic grey is his energy distribution, which at the top level over hurdles was extremely even. This means he could gallop towards the front of an elite race without ever really threatening to land a blow in the contest. His latest win at Newbury was of a similar kind but at Cheltenham his opponents will have more residual class than Sam Winner - his Irish counterparts have been trading blows at Graded Chase level for most of the season.

One of whom is Carlingford Lough, who in March will be having his fourteenth chase start in just eighteen months. His main recent target was last summer's Galway Plate, which he won as a heavily backed favourite in the process ending a run of eight consecutive defeats. Perhaps the win gave him wings because following a short break over October and November he grew into a leading Grade One novice chaser. Firstly pushing Don Cossack all the way in the Drinmore Novices Chase; secondly beating Morning Assembly in the Topaz Novices Chase; and most recently being well in contention jumping the last fence in the Dr P. J. Moriarty Novices Chase against Ballycasey and, again, Don Cossack but being caught slightly short of room on the inner causing a peck on landing and a jockey exit. That he has prospered over the winter months without a summer break reveals a high level of mental toughness that cannot be ignored, especially in a race where focusing the mind is key. 

The evidence so far suggests that Carlingford Lough is a thorough stayer - he was an 8/1 favourite for the Irish Grand National (2013, pulled up) - and had stayed on well to win the Galway Plate on soft ground. His On/Behind bridle ratio stresses the "behind" aspect and because he seems to start most of his races in rear his mentality is important: he must be willing to commit himself to the contest then match and surpass what those in front of him are demanding. His best run so far came in the Topaz Novices Chase over 3m where he was able to race powerfully for a sustained period behind the bridle to get the better of Morning Assembly. Either side of that race he was perhaps just caught out for pace/gallop class when run down by Don Cossack (20f, G/Y) and in the Moriarty when trying to challenge Ballycasey's dominance. Against Don Cossack he looked to have his rival in trouble but it was likely that the shorter distance and better ground did not stretch his rival's energy reserves enough and, perhaps, the race exposed a class differential. It looked that way visually at least. It has to be considered by way of balance that that particular race was Carlingford Lough's first after his mini-break following the summer, whereas Don Cossack had run just two weeks prior. 

Carlingford Lough is a strong stayer with a toughened mentality and is unlikely to be affected in any way by being tightened for room at the last fence at Leopardstown. His biggest obstacle looks set to be conceding ground via race position to horses who in all probability have more residual class than him: his continuous race profile, the assault on prestigious handicap chases, and the fact that he is already an eight year old may just signify that connections were always fully aware of his limitations on some level. He will have Synchronised as his shadow through the race and remains a potent threat.

I Will Find You: Carlingford Lough (left) has Graded chase talent, power behind the bridle and an all-action mentality

And so enters the "fresh" horse, the one charged with turning over the hands of Confucius without touching him. That Morning Assembly has the raw ability to win based on this season's evidence is not in doubt: he has run easily with his main rivals in Ireland bar Ballycasey. But he has done so only in the first half of the season and the reason why has been stated specifically by his trainer:

It was always the plan to go straight from Christmas to Cheltenham as we don't want to over-race him. His real strong point is stamina and the RSA Chase has been the aim all along, but he's really a horse for next year. 

This is the crux of the matter. Next year he will be forced to race in open company, against hardened elite class horses and horses out of the very top drawer - the kind of experience that his trainer says he lacks now, in his novice season. If he is thought good enough for open company Graded races in the future, the aim for a top staying prospect is either to master the Cheltenham Festival or avoid it, as Paul Nicholls chose to do with Silviniaco Conti, for example. Instead, with a committed hesitation and whatever the reasons be they to do with quality or physicality, a mixed message is sent to the horse on raceday: give your all, even though we have not prepared you to do so and this, more than anything else, seals the fate of the "fresh" RSA Chase horse.

Fresh Fear: Morning Assembly will make RSA Chase history if overcoming racecourse absence to win

Barring one fall over hurdles Morning Assembly has finished first or second on every start under Rules. He has shown himself adaptable to small and large field sizes and to varying degrees of ground conditions. He was classy enough to win a Grade One novice hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last season. Having won his tussle with Don Cossack he then faced off with the steely, progressive and experienced Carlingford Lough in the Topaz Novices Chase over three miles. In that race he travelled prominently and comfortably in terrible weather but as his trainer has noted he was a little "careful" with some of his jumping, which led to some of his galloping pace advantage being shorn off. What was interesting analytically about the race was the different stages at which both transferred their energy behind the bridle. Carlingford Lough had done so out of necessity much earlier - he had to make ground from rear and his On/Behind bridle ratio strongly favours the latter aspect in this company, so getting rolling early was important. Morning Assembly's optimal bridal ratio is more central, by contrast. He was able to travel more easily through the race but that meant that he had less time to respond behind the bridle. He had begun the transfer of energy process after the final bend but had to be held together at the final fence and therefore only got racing proper after landing, whereas his main rival had been rolling behind the bridle with increasing power from some way out and mastered him late but with authority on the run to the line. With no more experience, no more miles in the legs, Morning Assembly will have to prove he can cope with more rivals pressing and harrying him through the race and then deal with other, classier horses racing proper over a longer distance than was the case in the Topaz. It is a tall order indeed.

Ballycasey made his way to the Festival last year but he was withdrawn from the Albert Bartlett Novices Chase on the morning of the race owing, officially, to abnormal blood analysis. With an infrequent racecourse appearance pattern, Ballycasey brings a sense of fragility to a tough race. Yet that he is potentially the classiest horse in the race is perhaps not in doubt and, analytically, he possesses the requisite characteristics to win the event. He was initially unextended over hurdles, winning easily twice in the manner of a potentially elite racehorse before being withdrawn from Cheltenham and running next at Punchestown, where he ran as if not at his best but was nonetheless beaten 7L into third by a horse he may meet here, Morning Assembly.

Despite always being thought of as a stayer, his trainer had no concerns about starting his novice chase season in a moderate race over 17f on good ground. Ballycasey didn't turn a hair in winning but then suffered a setback of some kind over the winter and did not reappear next until the three-runner Grade One Dr. P. J. Moriarty Chase - almost a rite of passage for future Irish RSA Chase winners. The trial race is a stepping stone and winning is by no means imperative but Ballycasey did win, making all and staying on well from the front to confirm the promise of his prior runs. The somewhat limited evidence suggests that his curve of energy distribution is quite even but that it is underpinned by a certain amount of residual class. He can probably jump and progress through any intensity of race transitions to a certain point but there has to be a concern regarding the amount of energy and intensity he will be able to transfer behind the bridle towards the end of a three mile Festival race. Class dispensed in the form of "On" bridle work within a comfort zone only carries a racehorse so far. This is not to suggest that Ballycasey cannot race effectively once forced to switch behind the bridle - he did so in the Moriarty - but lack of racecourse evidence makes it possible only to estimate the extent to which he can successfully knit together each successive race transition once faced with peak fitness competition, better ground and harder, longer running. The demands on his energy distribution curve will potentially skew the evidence generated under less demanding circumstances so far (the Moriarty was a classy race but its effects were generated by only three runners).

Class Power: Ballycasey's physique does not lend itself to intense training and racecourse frequency

His physicality must also be noted. He is not in the "bruising" or "strapping" chaser mould. He offers elegance and refinement in a way that suggests his training problems correspond to a physical constitution of silk rather than toughened leather. There is no doubting his mentality when he is sound but time and again the RSA Chase knowingly gathers in the excuses for connections to use after defeat is announced. There is a proviso amongst this. Firstly that the runners from the UK actually lack the class suggested in their runs to date (only the Reynoldstown Chase can now change that); and secondly that Ballycasey himself improves and matures for having something of a proper race over fences. The blood and thunder RSA Chase does not always materialise. It is always physically demanding but some are brutal affairs; however only recently Bobs Worth's defeat of First Lieutenant was a little more serene. In that kind of race, Ballycasey's high levels of residual class would be strongly favoured.

As is now apparent, a win for any of the four main Irish challengers would not be a surprise. But they will be separated in the race by specific racing reasons be they predictable, explicable or not. This is the attempt being made here. Small setbacks that will be revealed after the race will largely be unknown before it; there can be a difference between progression and thriving leading into the race. In many ways given that Ballycasey outpointed DON COSSACK quite readily at Leopardstown, it may seem counter-intuitive to expect the defeated horse there to prevail in the bigger event. Nor would Ballycasey confirming the form be in the least bit surprising. But as with Lord Windermere last season, the racecourse evidence strongly suggests that winning the RSA Chase is within the compass of the Gigginstown runner. 

In the Grade Two Florida Pearl Novice Chase (22f, Y) Don Cossack was jumping out of his jockey's hands, Cooper having to hold onto him on landing several times to prevent him from doing too much, often moving forward when galloping also but then restrained slightly, in so doing using up precious energy through the race which was ultimately why he was outstayed at the end of it, allied to the fact that it was in the early season stage of training. The horse that used his energy more efficiently on the day, Morning Assembly, will reoppose in March but the circumstances of their subsequent development and training programmes are very different. That November race is likely to have told his trainer most of what he wanted to know about his horse. Just two weeks later, again relishing dry ground, Don Cossack took down the Drinmore Novices Chase beating Carlingford Lough, who would then go on to beat Morning Assembly in the Topaz at the end of the month. Here, the Drinmore, early December, the efforts of his race just two weeks prior meant that Don Cossack was unable to run as effectively as before. He travelled okay but had to start switching behind the bridle notably early compared to his previous run. He then seemed to lack some strength and conditioning as Carlingford Lough, himself racing behind the bridle, pulled away a bit. What was impressive in this respect was the way in which Don Cossack responded to being organized behind the bridle and, eventually finding his breathing rhythm, finally stayed on powerfully to mow down his determined rival. He found a way to win. 

Power-packed: Don Cossack (right) did most of his racing in impressive fashion before jumping slightly left at the last fence in the Florida Pearl Novices Chase. He was still able to fight back alongside Morning Assembly, but was outstayed by a more energy efficient rival on the day

His prep run (21f Soft/Heavy) in the Moriarty signified his continued seasonal progress. It would have been surprising had he been able to move easily with the fluent class of Ballycasey on this ground at this distance but nonetheless he was far from compromised. His transfer of energy phase was notably smooth, shaken up with the reins to keep close contact with the leader approaching the final bend the switch behind the bridle began but there was no loss of momentum. Slightly behind him, Carlingford Lough was being given encouragement from the whip but Don Cossack was not: he was transferring his energy behind the bridle and after jumping the last was then asked for maximum effort and responded well. He was unable to match the class of Ballycasey over this distance, on this ground, on this day but he did not let him get away from him by too much, suggesting an examination over further and on drier ground (or ground less deep) would match the range of his energy distribution curve far more. 

Over hurdles Don Cossack ran with some illustrious names: Defy Logic, Sizing Gold, Pont Alexandre, The Tullow Tank, Mozoltov, Annie Power. And although unsuccessful in that sphere in Graded company, he was expected to emerge a tougher, more resolute and more effective staying novice chaser. He clearly summered well as evidenced by starting his campaign as early as October and he has progressed through each stage of the season, absorbing four races into his legs and responding to each physical challenge and race recovery period. He has always had great scope, a physical size and composition that would require staying distances and whilst clearly handling heavy ground he has proved his preference for drier surfaces on which he travels and jumps with alacrity. In 2011 his trainer went very close in this race with a horse that travelled supremely well throughout but who just failed to handle the final uphill demands of the contest behind the bridle. Don Cossack's On/Behind bridle ratio is more even, more atoned to the demands of this race and as was the case last year he may tell us that defeat in the Moriarty is an ideal way to prepare for the big day.

Neptune Novices Hurdle: Preliminary Thoughts

A race that continues to provide for runners with very high potential. Even when just taking the recent past into account: Mikael d'Haguenet rattled off a six-timer in his winning season; Peddlers Cross went down by a length to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle; First Lieutenant came second in the RSA Chase and second in the Ryanair Chase; Simonsig won the Arkle Chase; and The New One is among the favourites for the Champion Hurdle having won the International Hurdle. This is a tough roll-call to get in line for. 

Chief among those in waiting is Faugheen. Reference to Pont Alexandre (favourite but well beaten in this race last year for the same stable) is worth dismissing unless it focuses for comparative purposes on their respective physicality, which is the significant aspect. Pont Alexandre had the build of, and ran akin to that of, a strapping three mile chaser. He powered his frame through deep ground against inferior rivals but he did not do it quickly and the accompanying disparity between racecourse evidence, Festival race suitability and general expectation bordered on the enormous. Faugheen is much better situated. He is quite a narrow horse. His chest and shoulders do not offer a great deal of staying power at this stage; he is built to race quickly when required, but the engine does not necessarily cut out over longer trips. Although he is something of an unknown quantity - because he has simply outclassed all his rivals to date - that is not an excuse to opine that he "could be anything" when quite clearly that is not the case (nor is it ever). We also know more about him on the racecourse than was the case with Pont Alexandre, for example. Faugheen won a 24f Point race (as did Simonsig) before dismantling Josses Hill, who looks very promising himself this season. Including his Point victory, the following in-race comments appear: "qckn clr", "quickened clear", "travelled easily...not extended", "eased into lead next...easily" and from his latest and least impressive performance, "easily". That was over three miles in heavy ground but by again outclassing inferior rivals it was a performance that strongly evidenced why three miles under Festival conditions is not something that would be particularly suitable. His On/Behind bridle ratio is very much tilted in favour of the former.

Speed: Faugheen has a smoothness of movement for specific reasons but hurdling could be more fluent

Only recently, Simonsig and The New One's "jumping" was sometimes brought up as a negative, yet both won this race comfortably, Simonsig going on to win an Arkle Chase despite carrying an infection and The New One going on to win an International Hurdle this season. Hurdling techniques are rarely perfect; they combine with or result from the physicality of the horse and the conditions in which they race on any given day. Faugheen on occasion jumps from the shoulder, so he will run to a hurdle and push his shoulders over first leaving the legs a bit stiff and straight as they go over, rather than those components working together in a more fluid movement. Such aspects of micro-analysis rarely present a problem to elite horses so if Faugheen is a top class novice in waiting his hurdling will not affect his Neptune performance in any significant way. As of yet though we have not seen him switch behind the bridle, and that aspect of his physicality is still largely unknown.

Which is not the case with the identifiably more robust The Tullow Tank. He is unbeaten this season with two Grade One victories to show for his efforts, winning the latest of those by 8L at Leopardstown. In that race he was obviously well on top at the end of the race but the same was also true for his win in the Royal Bond, despite the much narrower winning margin. In terms of physicality what can be seen on the racecourse has also been clearly stated by his trainer: "He was impressive the last day in that the further he went the better he was...He can race on and off the bridle so [jockey] Danny (Mullins) did well because he's not the easiest ride", whilst bearing in mind that stamina in terms of distance has yet to be asked of the horse, having raced exclusively over two miles thus far (he will race over 18f in the Deloitte Hurdle). 

Shoulder Press: The Tullow Tank has size and power on the front end

That physicality is underpinned by the presence of strapping, powerful shoulders. He is a horse of notable size and as such is a much different proposition to Faugheen. He most likely lacks the potential residual class of that horse but a defining aspect of physicality in general is how the underlying engine is used and to that end The Tullow Tank's work in the second half of his races is an admirable strength. In the Royal Bond (Dec 1, goodish ground) he raced prominently in third or fourth; a signpost towards his On/Behind bridle ratio came approaching and rounding the final turn as his reins were being shaken to get closer and once round the bend he began to switch behind the bridle - some way out for a two mile hurdle race. There was no loss of ground and once energised he began his task of wearing down the leader without allowing the rival chasing him much of a look in, powering home in sustained fashion to be well on top at the line. 

In the Future Champion Novices Hurdle (Dec 27, soft) the class of race, the minimum distance and the ground likely conspired to make the early part of the race the most demanding he had faced. His jockey later reported that at one point along the back of the course he thought he was going to struggle - the strong wind was affecting his horse too, he said - but The Tullow Tank persevered and found his level subsequently. As previously these were not smooth race transitions but the horse either had the class, the force of will or both to keep rolling and jumping and, faced with the request to race from behind the bridle, decided not to stop answering until the jockey told him to, demolishing the field by eight lengths. The Deloitte Hurdle will reveal more about him and his suitability for a goodish ground top class race over further at the Festival. It is interesting analytically to compare him with Faugheen though: where does the convergence of styles and energy usage favour two talented horses; one whose work is largely within his own comfort zone owing, in all likelihood, to sheer class of engine against one who will be strongest in the latter part of his race, but can it be said he will be in close enough contention to strike without having expended too much energy beforehand?

Thus as with most novice races at the Festival openness of mind can provide for different possible scenarios. One of those involves The Liquidator. David Pipe has one of the outstanding novices of the season in King's Palace: allowed to run from the outset at distances he would excel at, that horse has done almost everything in smooth phases through his races. With The Liquidator his runs over two miles suggest an alteration to the distance is required. His fourth to Briar Hill in the Cheltenham Bumper suggested many possible things but he didn't travel through the race under the cover of a two miler, lacking tactical gallop pace at crucial points but staying on resolutely. Of course, we aren't to know his level of maturity or stage of physicality at that point and his stroll around Carlisle revealed little.

His next start was interesting, at Cheltenham on good ground in a Supreme Novices titled trial race (17f), but the performance and subsequent intimations from his stable revealed that Festival race to be unlikely. As a race it was a non-event with none of his three opponents proving capable or interested in racing him. It emerged after that they had wanted "to take the sting out of Sea Lord's finish" but that horse was struggling from a long way out, perhaps with a physical problem. The Liquidator therefore set off in front and at a good pace, slightly keen early on but well enough settled with proficient jumping. Interestingly, he was going so (unnecessarily) fast having run downhill to two out that although jumping the hurdle well enough he almost pecked significantly on landing, but did well to maintain his balance and pick up his gallop. Nonetheless, this was not a performance that allowed for an even distribution of energy; nor was it a run of a "speedy" two miler in a stalking-the-pace mode. Approaching and around the final bend his jockey began shaking his reins repeatedly with a slap to the neck each time: asking for more, almost like a test. On straightening to aim at the hill he was given a crack of the whip - all this despite being well clear with the race won - and with the horse appearing to tire from his earlier running, was ridden strongly out towards the line.

Afterwards his trainer admitted that it was "not the ideal way to ride him today" referring to his own choice of tactics with his jockey pointing to winning the Punchestown Champion Bumper as an indication of stamina requirements. Overall, this run was a clear exercise in learning more about the horse's On/Behind bridle ratio and his energy distribution capabilities. When the stamina sapping Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was switched to the sharper, speedier Kempton Park track David Pipe was much less keen to run in the race.

Lean and Keen: The Liquidator's 'barrel' or girth appears slight towards the back end or flank hind

The Liquidator is quite a lean horse with no obvious physical signs as yet of strong staying power. This is most likely why he is being kept to the minimum trip for now (his Dam was a low level staying type) whilst they learn more about his specific in-race capabilities. Competing in a 'proper' race will reveal more about those capabilities for everyone.

January 11: Update following the Tolworth Hurdle: The Liquidator was extremely disappointing, beaten a long way out. As at Cheltenham he seemed to naturally tire a long way out but this time the competition was much stronger and glided past him easily. His energy distribution is a major concern and could be symptomatic of a physical/breathing problem. His lean back-end is also a concern and better ground over a longer trip is likely to be forthcoming. Front-running does not seem to suit him well at all.

January 20:
Royal Boy offers a fairly natural potential conundrum, because it can sometimes be difficult to assess that potential through the mist of powerful connections. Certainly his regular jockey had a similar struggle, as he opted to choose the year younger Josses Hill in the rescheduled Tolworth Hurdle. All of which is compounded by the fact that Royal Boy was not among the original entries for the race, until a reluctance to send him over two and a half miles in deep ground at Warwick led him to Kempton.

Another reason was that he is "not a slow horse" by which his trainer most likely means he has a certain amount of residual class. That is borne out to an extent by his impressive first run (narrowly defeated) over hurdles against Melodic Rendezvous, before finishing third to that horse in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle where an injury curtailed his season. He reappeared from absence over 21f on good ground at Kempton in a novice chase - so soft ground was not essential - where again he moved as if feeling a physical problem. Given that he was then dropped back to hurdles it is likely to have been muscle problems, but no official reason was given after the race, in which he was beaten 44L.

He remained at middle distances four weeks later for a facile win in a moderate maiden hurdle (his first win under Rules) at Ascot over 22f on soft ground. He was impressive in travelling easily on the bridle until shaken up towards the last to stride away. Markedly up in class - back to the Grade One he tried to win last season - and the energy distribution was similar. Prominent the whole way and moving strongly into the lead rounding the final bend he moved smoothly behind the bridle to begin a war with his stablemate, the pair pulling eleven lengths clear of the remaining runners. What was notable was that for a horse better suited to middle distances, Royal Boy was not stretched out by either the ground or the pace of this two mile contest and he showed tenacity to battle back from being marginally nosed out to master his rival before the line.

In terms of physicality there are some similarities with Finian's Rainbow for the same owner and trainer. Royal Boy won his 3m Point, Finian's Rainbow was unfortunate to fall when leading at the last in his. Both had one hurdles start before going up to Grade One company, Finian's Rainbow went to the Challow Hurdle instead (1L third), and was then prepped by winning a moderate race in February before tackling the Neptune Novices Hurdle, which is now the plan for Royal Boy. The difference comes in that Royal Boy will have had an extra season under Rules to mature physically before running in his Cheltenham target race. This could be significant as Finian's Rainbow perhaps lacked physical maturity and strength in both his Neptune and Arkle attempts, before winning a Champion Chase at the age of nine. So a key aspect of assessing Royal Boy's Neptune potential relies on knowledge of the extent to which he has matured and strengthened in his own right but also comparatively to Finian's Rainbow would be interesting too.

As potentially the chief danger to Faugheen, Royal Boy's smooth race transitions and even energy distribution underpins an On/Behind bridle ratio that is seemingly well-suited to his Festival target. It is interesting to compare those aspects of his physicality with the much different ones of The Tullow Tank.

Touchdown: Josses Hill hits the turf first but Royal Boy is still strong behind the bridle

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle: Preliminary Thoughts

A race that was given Grade One status in 2008. The novice version of the staying hurdle division is open to all, as despite Nicky Henderson landing a 1-2 in the race in 2011 Messrs Nicholls and Mullins have yet to claim the race for their stables. With the quality of runner they possess as a group they can strike at any time, but the amount of general attention afforded their runners does nothing to help the performances they produce. Paul Nicholls went close in 2008 (3rd) and 2009 (2nd); Berties Dream and all the big-priced placed horses claimed the podium in 2010; both the main hopes of Nicholls and Mullins were pulled up in 2011; Boston Bob (2nd) had no answers to Brindisi Breeze in 2012; and 2013 went the way of Rebecca Curtis, expectedly so for many. Until anything clearer emerges, this year could be a case of Messrs Henderson and Mullins trying to prevent the trophy from arriving at the Pipe Barn.

Briar Hill's dam was an unraced sister to Boston Bob and, in the same ownership, Briar Hill displays strikingly similar physical characteristics and the concomitant praise of that horse. Where Briar Hill differs from Boston Bob, at this stage, is that he has not been galloped with Hurricane Fly and Quevega. Workmanlike at home, the lack of "hype" saw him ransack the Cheltenham Bumper at 25/1 where as ever "the price" had no physical impact on the horse's performance. Briar Hill's physicality is quite simple to gauge on the basis of his racetrack runs, so any distortion of that physicality is likely to come from inaccurate analysis, "expectation", comments attributed to his trainer and/or comments attributed to his jockey. The following is a selection from wins at Cheltenham, Wexford, Navan and Naas:

Quotes can be used in any number of ways to suit a variety of purposes; here we are only interested in the way in which connections perceive their horse in relation to what can be observed on the track. The word that is misplaced is "speed". None of his hurdle runs display speed. What they may be referring to is the ability to gallop at an elite pace, so that if he can move comfortably with good horses attempting to gallop strongly beyond him then this would indicate tactical pace or, misused, the term "speed". At both Navan and Naas Briar Hill can be clearly seen to switch behind the bridle in extremely small field, moderate gallop races. A horse with "speed" would not need to do this and on better ground this would only be accentuated. At Navan when making all against Azorian his jumping went technically awry as a result most likely of lack of experience: he appeared unsure how to coordinate his effort to race effectively with the timing required to jump. Once he had got rolling more fully, he cleared the last hurdle easily and bounded clear. At Naas he was in second the whole way and chasing a rival with a narrower, more compact physique who was quite quick across his obstacles. There were no problems for Briar Hill; his power behind the bridle was showcased because it took a while to master the horse in front but in the fashion of a good stayer once he had done so that power grew stronger and more effective and he was clear at the line. 

Briar Hill himself is a strong, muscular horse. He has good size but not a worryingly large frame. So far he has displayed a number of important aspects. He looks for the time being to be of a sound constitution, having run well and recovered well from three runs already; his mentality is strong so that despite the impression of "only doing enough" he has the even energy distribution required of a stayer and applies himself well at the end of his races; and he has confirmed the initial signs of residual class displayed in his Cheltenham Bumper win. It has to be held in mind that we are unaware of his training programme and that the curve of his physical progression is being shaped towards March, where he will have to "race" from the outset in a big field at Festival pace on better ground, a constellation of factors he will probably relish. 

Driven: Briar Hill has strong galloping power when switching behind the bridle

He does not have the "speed" for a Neptune Novices Hurdle, but that assumes that there are runners with a certain profile and with enough class in that race to make that observation a problem and is likely one of the many reasons why his actual race target is yet to be defined. Many trainers with live festival candidates face similar decision-making processes. From Briar Hill's race performances over hurdles to date a novice in the vicinity of The New One's calibre would cause him no end of problems but this is a new year and a different renewal. His chances in the Albert Bartlett will depend on the extent to which his more obvious hurdling limitations - he is likely to become a better chaser than hurdler - can be exposed by his opponents. In that respect one obvious candidate leaps into contention.

King's Palace. His only defeat when completing the course (he fell two out in a soft ground Ayr bumper almost a year ago) came against an opponent he may well face again in this race, the one year older Captain Cutter just outstayed him in a heavy ground Ascot bumper. Captain Cutter won the Grade One Challow Hurdle at the end of December although he has yet to race at three miles (which is fine). King's Palace on the other hand has been driving the miles into his legs with three wins this season over 23f, 26f and 24f, all on good ground, the latter being one of the sponsored trials for this event.

King's Palace displays a varied mix of physical attributes. He is taller and more athletic than Briar Hill, for example; not as muscular in the chest but with a strong stamp of a neck. He gallops exuberantly from the front without being keen and avoids using up unnecessary energy. Not unlike Cue Card, for example, he sets his opponents a test and asks them if they have any answers and, bar being a little green and uncharacteristically moderate over the last two hurdles at Fontwell on debut, nothing he has faced subsequently has been able to pull up a chair for that exam. Wide margin wins are often misleading for one reason or another - Our Conor's Triumph Hurdle victory is a prominent example - but in winning twice at Cheltenham by a combined 32L King's Palace performed with a kind of physicality that offers little doubt about his ability to replicate his running power in a Grade One event.

Keep Up: King's Palace's hurdling has been amongst the best of any novice this season

King's Palace's hurdling since his debut win has been outstanding. So far we can say that he rarely breaks stride when jumping despite the high-level gallop he sets himself; his taller, athletic frame seems to help maintain his body position whilst lifting his legs over the hurdle, meaning there is very little loss of momentum at any stage. This technique allied to the level of class he is displaying combine to break his opponents. An interesting aspect of his jumping may link to his bridle ratio, in that what would happen if he made a mistake? Many horses in his division are not travelling as fast or with as much confidence as he does: they may hit or brush through a hurdle but it does not alter their rhythm much as they can quickly pick up their gallop again on the landing side. It may be that a mistake - how serious it would need to be is impossible to say - from King's Palace would hurt the optimal range of his On/Behind bridle ratio. For a horse that races with such power in his own comfort zone, it is questionable how much racing power he would be able to offer when switched behind the bridle. The effectiveness of his weaponry relies on opponents not being able to keep close enough to him in the last quarter of the race, but any mistake(s) would reduce the distance he was in front by and make a challenge from behind the bridle by an opponent a distinct possibility, at which point a clear convergence of available power would favour his pursuer(s). If King's Palace puts in an error-free round he is likely to be extremely difficult to catch in this race, and minor errors are unlikely to alter such a scenario.

Captain Cutter will likely be one of the main pursuers. His win in the Challow Hurdle was impressive perhaps mostly for the fact that he came from last to stay resolutely past the field in heavy ground. However much those conditions clearly suited him well, to do that to opponents in a Grade One contest shows a complimentary mix of racing power. His trainer's assistant summed him up succinctly:

That progression has been energised in a different way to his main rival since beating him in heavy ground on debut in a bumper at Ascot. He has not been asked to run at three miles most likely because only then will he have been trained to deliver his maximum for the season. His races to date show that he grows in strength as his race develops. However, unlike King's Palace, Captain Cutter's hurdling can hinder his rhythm, as it did most notably at Market Rasen over 19f on good to soft ground. He raced more prominently than he would later in the Challow Hurdle, but a mistake at the seventh seemed to set him back a little and his jockey was forced to ensure he outclassed his rivals rather than the horse naturally and easily doing so. Perhaps this was the reason he was allowed to race more in his own time at Newbury on his next start, given that it was a Grade One (albeit in deep ground) and that connections would have been fairly sure he was well up to the required level. As with Briar Hill, the key question for Captain Cutter revolves around whether he has the technical ability to still be in contention should King's Palace deliver the tour de force he is capable of, especially on much better ground than the Challow. Like Briar Hill, the most striking aspect of his physicality is his ability to race powerfully once behind the bridle; but the race may be won by tactical pace rather than force of will.

Let's Roll: Captain Cutter will need to hurdle smoothly for his staying power to become effective

JLT (Jewson) Novices Chase 2014: Preliminary Thoughts

This race has little historicity. It is therefore one that requires a great deal of caution. As a race for novices with an intermediate distance, in some cases it can be difficult to assess the physicality, mentality and stage of progression of the runners. Nonetheless, as a Grade One event at the Festival we are looking for a potentially elite horse with an even distribution of energy, a purposeful preparation and a touch of residual class. In no particular order at this stage:

Oscar Whisky's physicality has already been discussed here, in relation to the physical characteristics needed for a World Hurdle. It is similar in some ways to that of Cue Card, but not the same. As a hurdler, he was high class. His Cheltenham Festival record is admirable, but there are no wins because none of his four attempts were over his specialist distance of 20f, the trip at which he won two Aintree Hurdles. Fourth in a Supreme Novices Hurdle, third in a Champion Hurdle, fifth in a World Hurdle, then pulled up in a World Hurdle. Never a three-mile stayer, his chasing mission has begun two seasons too late but his target race is over the correct distance for his physical attributes. 

They are: a high level elite class gallop and an On/Behind bridle ratio that spikes to maximum effect in the middle, but with a gun to his head asking for either raw speed/acceleration or stamina/grind the returns diminish significantly at the top level. His mentality has always been excellent. This is quite a heady mix when sent into a novice sphere against horses with more workmanlike profiles. He has run all three times over fences at Cheltenham, something his trainer has long been reluctant to do with his best novice chasers. Sprinter Sacre and Finian's Rainbow did not visit Cheltenham over fences until their Arkle Chase runs; Grandouet has been set a similar path. Then again with Oscar Whisky his trainer had very little to learn about him, having raced for four seasons over hurdles at all distances and on all ground. His chase runs have revealed little, other than his prospective opponents for this race have had little trouble getting competitive with him. From the front or with a lead, Oscar Whisky races in the same way with his mentality ensuring a fullness of effort. He was beaten by Taquin Du Seuil, then he beat Taquin Du Seuil on a desperate weather day with five fences omitted, and in between he mastered Wonderful Charm by half a length making all. In each case, significantly, Oscar Whisky was allowed or was able to distribute his energy evenly and efficiently, and as a result his performances were in the optimal range. One of the difficult things about Oscar Whisky over fences is understanding what he actually needs, but it is questionable as to whether a big field and goodish ground at a strong Festival pace is ideal. It could just be that his ideal conditions are those that very nearly seen him record a hattrick from this first three attempts, namely small fields with only one main rival to battle and fend off/get past. 

But for that half length defeat to Oscar Whisky in December, Wonderful Charm would have racked up a four-timer. He is a potentially talented horse, although the reasons why, having not raced since October, he was sent into a World Hurdle field aged only five are best left to his trainer. He obviously summered well, starting his season in October (last year's winner started in September) and then going on to win the Rising Stars Novices Chase at Wincanton (won previously for the same stable by Silviniaco Conti) and the Grade Two Berkshire Novices Chase at Newbury. He then ran Oscar Whisky close at Cheltenham, so that there is the requisite ability of sorts present is not in doubt.

Ability is not enough. Having completed his four races in the first half of the season, his trainer has stated that he will not run again before the Festival, a gap of three months. Noble Prince (2011) ran in the Grade One Irish Arkle on January 23; Sir Des Champs (2012) ran in a Grade Two at Leopardstown on January 28; and like Noble Prince, Benefficient (2013) ran in the Irish Arkle on January 26. All were Irish-trained, and all had displayed a preference for stamina at some stage in terms of either race distance or run style. Wonderful Charm, too, has run between 20f-22f on each start this season. Highly rated by his stable, he may be a staying chaser in the making but at the moment he perhaps resembles in his run style what Oscar Whisky may have looked like if sent chasing a couple of season ago. Wonderful Charm's On/Behind bridle ratio is very much towards the former. He had a breathing operation after Ruby Walsh reported he didn't feel right in the World Hurdle and this season his performances have been characterised by keenness, travelling notably well on the bridle, and prior to meeting Oscar Whisky outclassing inferior rivals.

This was true at Wincanton where he clattered through the last two fences, ceding lengths to the leader. He was straightened up, gathered in, and responded by picking up again to surge forward and win. This led to post-race comments that suggested 21f was the minimum trip for him but the amount of energy he expends on the bridle does not suggest this at all, at least not for his novice season and the fact that he has not been asked to compete over three miles by his trainer perhaps affirms this view. He can race, for sure, as he proved against Oscar Whisky but in that race he seemed to display very similar physical attributes to his more illustrious rival. His energy distribution in that race seemed more even, more one-paced, probably because Oscar Whisky had the class to stretch him out of his comfort zone and make him race with different attributes. He responded to a more demanding test well but there has to be a concern that a lack of racing for such a long period of time allied to his natural keenness and a more sustained and fierce festival pace will break any finishing effort his bridle ratio can command at this stage in his career. Unlike Oscar Whisky he will still be maturing physically, as he looks to be slightly narrow-chested. Physical growth, a keenness to race, a bridle ratio suggesting most work is done 'on' it and a planned absence from the track may make his task rather difficult in March, for all that he appears to have a lot of natural ability.

Strength: The older Oscar Whisky (right) has more muscular reserves of strength than Wonderful Charm (left) but they were matched closely in ability terms earlier in the season.

In his novice hurdle season just gone, Taquin Du Seuil won a Grade Two by six lengths on heavy and then the Grade One Challow hurdle by nine lengths on heavy. From that three week period there seems to have sprung a myth that he "loves" or "needs" some real cut in the ground, which he almost certainly does not. Those Graded races were not very competitive and he was easily the best horse in each race, so when he then ran well for a long way but was ultimately well beaten in a fairly hot Neptune Novices Hurdle (won by The New One) on good to soft Festival ground it served to reinforce the general perception of his required ground conditions from the winter. He also made his chase debut on heavy ground at Ffos Las. Yet analytically the ground is not important for him. He does have a slightly peculiar knee lift but he had little problem out-speeding the "fast" Oscar Whisky on good ground at Cheltenham, where he also showed a tractable mentality to be unaffected by the slow-stop-start gallop early in the race. After the race his trainer revealed the Arkle Chase was still under consideration, owing to the speed he displayed at home and presumably by the way in which he bettered Oscar Whisky. True to their word, his next race was in the Grade One Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown over two miles, again on good ground. 

This was a no-nonsense fact-finding mission that ended in an 8L defeat and a confirmation that the Jewson is indeed the right race. He got the strong gallop that he most likely thrives upon but this race was notable for its unusual depth: Hinterland and Grandouet were two high class, fast, specialised two milers meeting each other for the second time. Taquin Du Seuil jumped the first two fences well, and was enjoying the early pace too much, pulling his way past Grandouet in third place before settling. The big test came after the first bend as the field started motoring down the back and towards the railway fences. He did well but finally he was bested by the ninth fence, pecking on landing and losing momentum. This brought closer the time he needed to race proper and rounding the final bend he had switched behind the bridle but it was noticeable how well he responded, closing to within three lengths of Hinterland and Grandouet as those two went for everything and scooted clear. Taquin Du Seuil stayed on well to the line, running a fine Jewson trial under the cover of a strong Arkle one. 

The Cheltenham re-match with Oscar Whisky, this time on soft ground, produced a similar outcome to their first battle, this time Oscar Whisky narrowly prevailing. But here it was back to a ponderous pace and a race with little intent until it got to the final stages, and it was noticeable how Taquin Du Seuil was ambling at some of his fences, in contradistinction to the helter skelter of Sandown. If we are to assess his optimal conditions then they are those which he has yet to face: 20f, goodish ground, strong gallop from start to finish - much what he can expect to face in March. He has has shown he can handle a variety of challenges and that he himself has more improvement to come, with 16f pace and 20f stamina, allied to tactical speed at the longer distance. A nice blend of physicality. Normal progression permitting, he looks a ready-made Jewson horse. 

Across the water, nearly all the talk has fallen on Felix Yonger and Champagne Fever. Discussion of the latter will feature in relation to the Arkle Chase as that is where his level of residual class would be best served. Not unlike his more talented stablemate, Felix Yonger has been subject to any amount of analytical distortion, with many media platforms suggesting he should run in the Arkle Chase, and, furthermore, that he should be the favourite for that contest. The details do not confirm this view, but they should also not take anything away from his own capabilities, which are clearly identifiable. (He is eight years of age, for those adhering to the Steps model of profiling.) 

The reason behind the distortion is an old and recurring one: "form". It is one of the most overused and poorly chosen words when discussing elite novice contests. Felix Yonger beat Defy Logic, then beat Trofolium; Defy Logic beat Champagne Fever and Trifolium was second; it follows, mutatis mutandis, that Felix Yonger should and Champagne Fever should not therefore run in the Arkle and given that Champagne Fever was favourite and still is favourite for the race that Felix Yonger should be favourite for the Arkle and Champagne Fever should run in the Jewson. What is his trainer, Willie Mullins, playing at?

That Felix Yonger may run in the Arkle is a possible scenario, of course, but it is unlikely and Felix Yonger's appeal in an Arkle would be limited. What can be seen quite clearly are the different targets of different horses in Ireland. Defy Logic is an Irish winter ground horse. He has talent but it is not of a kind that would see him fair well in a Cheltenham Arkle Chase. His trainer has made specific reference to "the softer the better" for his horse and that his win in the race contested by Champagne Fever was a main target - "delighted to win a Grade One with him" - as no doubt will be the Irish Arkle. In many ways he is reminiscent of the Noel Meade trained Realt Dubh, who had a similarly targeted campaign with an Irish Arkle victory. That horse actually ran with great credit in The Arkle, finishing around 9L third to Captain Chris and Finian's Rainbow. He won again in Punchestown but didn't win another race, his lack of residual class laid bare in open company. Against Felix Yonger, Defy Logic was encountering the quickest ground in his career to date, attempting to make all at a fast pace as usual, only to be picked up late in the contest. What is obvious when watching that race is how Defy Logic was beaten quite early, headed two out from where he was ridden and rousted and visibly tired into a mistake at the last fence. That was not the case against Champagne Fever; they were very different runs owing to different physical stages of his season. Against Felix Yonger he was being geared towards his first Winter target and ran accordingly.

Trifolium's breathing problems have been well documented and this was another opponent that went off fast from the front and was unable to sustain his effort, weakening sharply as a tired horse jumping the last fence. When Champagne Fever made a mistake two from home in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown, Defy Logic was then presented the race with Trifolium, who had been well behind until staying on when his race was over, finishing second. A "perfect form storm" was duly created, but its worth as a reliable analytical tool is low.

Interestingly, the racecourse evidence tells a different story. Not least because just as Felix Yonger was becoming the latest Arkle fashion accessory, he got beat, at Limerick, by his more limited stablemate The Paparrazi Kid. That was over 19f. But instead of asking why he got beaten and what could be learned of his physicality in defeat, rather than victory, the "didn't stay" line was put through the run by those keen to get four steps ahead of his trainer. On the contrary, what can be seen from his Limerick defeat confirms the overall impression of his two victories that he would prefer more of a stamina test on good ground. Ruby Walsh reported how he was close to being taken off his feet by Trifolium. If that is so, then Champagne Fever (and Defy Logic) would have had Felix Yonger in a great deal of trouble had he tried to chase them in their Grade One race, and with no prisoners taken in an Arkle, Hinterland and Grandouet have already shown the trouble a 20f horse can get into against them. At Limerick Felix Yonger was able to move more within his comfort zone and in so doing was happy to 'flick' across the surface with his right front leg, suggesting good ground would be more than welcome (his best run over hurdles was his 7L second to Simonsig in the Neptune Novices Hurdle at the Festival on good ground). Having moved through the race okay, if a little wide, his best moments came when racing behind the bridle as a couple of moderate jumps left him with a number of lengths to find on the eventual winner, which he set about hunting down with relish, unsuccessfully, suggesting that there is more to come over slightly further distances. The overriding impression is that Felix Yonger is an eight year old coming into a competitive novice chase arena after a year off the track. He has probably surprised his handlers a little with his exuberance as much as with his early season ability, but Limerick perhaps hinted at a plateau and the task ahead is to condition him for a Jewson Novices Chase that will test his ability to both hang onto a fast pace and see the race out at the other end.

In terms of raw ability there may not be too much between these key four runners, suggesting even more reason to pay attention to specific aspects of their physicality and mentality in the coming weeks.