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2014 Cheltenham Festival: Main Preference Results

* The specific race performance analytics from each day of the Festival will emerge over the coming weeks

Luck is the residue of design
- Branch Rickey

Results from the performance of main preference in Grade One races on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday:

123 - 1FP - 115

Best results from performances of main two preferences across the same days:

122 - 141 - 113

The Triumph Hurdle and Albert Bartlett were not put through the analytical mill although in the case of the latter I would, erroneously, still have favoured the "leading players", both of whom fell.

Friday

4F4

Friday was the day of least concern, of the least amount of time spent on assessments, and of the most unquestioned acceptance of what would perform well prior to raceday. It was therefore a deserving day of surprises to end three largely successful days in analytical terms. The effort spent accumulating the initial nine Grade One write-ups led to fatigue of the Friday mind - in terms of typing time - avoiding the Triumph (always a personal preference), merely citing some initial thoughts from December for the Albert Bartlett, and a simplistic prod at the front two in the Gold Cup, however strange the finale to that event looked, having seemed expectantly straightforward going over the last fence.

Of the nine Grade One races over the first three days of the Festival, four proved correct outright and were made available on February 24 (Supreme), February 19 (Neptune), February 20 (JLT) and February 28 (Ryanair). Another was made available on March 3 (Champion Chase) as a detailed secondary preference.

Five from nine is acceptable. In a race where a shock is a real shock, the Arkle Chase denied a sixth and the Champion Hurdle possibly a seventh, where The New One was irreparably stopped in his tracks. The RSA Chase and the World Hurdle were, this year, the ones that got away and the only real disappointments of the first three days.

The emerging Race Performance Analytics (RPA's) that follow will highlight some exceptionally strong assessments and at the same time lay bare the inevitable gaps in a mental approach that can be ruthlessly exposed by Festival reality. In fact, based on an initial survey of the performances, the task of being more ruthless - in a balanced way of course - was one that was underplayed. In the meantime, Aintree awaits.

Upcoming...

Festival 2014 Elite Performance Analysis and Festival Approach Reviews

Will be undertaken in the main after Aintree and Punchestown, when more information can be gleaned from follow-up performances.

And Finally...

The Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - little has changed in this division since the Preliminary Thoughts for the race were formed. The front duo, King's Palace and Briar Hill, look clear best. 

The Triumph Hurdle is not a race to have come under focus on these pages. Again, Le Rocher and Calipto (with Activial undecided as yet) appear justifiably prominent; the UK runners may have the edge over their Irish rivals but it is a race best left to others to analyse. This completes available analysis of the twelve Grade One contests.

And Finally, Good Luck All. These pages are concerned with why Grade One horses may win and lose at the Festival. As such there is no advice, no suggestions, no tips, no mention of odds/prices or betting in general. Those aspects of the sport are insignificant to the task of analysing (potentially) top class racehorses and the specific racing reasons why they perform in the way that they do. The rest is down to them to run their races and come back safely.

World Hurdle 2014 - Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference

Endurance is not just the ability to bear a hard thing, but to turn it into glory
- William Barclay

More Of That may have talked over his participation problems with Wonderful Charm, who was thrown into the heat of a World Hurdle on his second start in this country following a four and a half month absence. This race will be More Of That's fifth career start following a three month absence. He will hopefully benefit in some way from the occasion and the experience of running with some hardened elite horses. 

Rule The World confirmed the abundant promise of his novice hurdle season when chasing home The New One in the Neptune Novices Hurdle at last year's Festival (21f, GS). He presents a couple of contrasts: 1) He is in the raw, powerful staying chaser mould but despite his talent a strong, deep run over hurdles in this race would suggest too strong an affinity for the smaller obstacles; a positive but more non-threatening display would infer even more improvement to come when faced with fences (relating to a combination of physicality, technique and career progression curve); and 2) His "form" has not really suggested a readiness to win this event but his trainer is renowned for skilled preparation of his horses for this Festival and the under-the-radar nature of his runs may suggest this has been a major target.

In raw terms he has been well beaten in both his Grade One attempts this season. He won a moderate contest on his reappearance and that he was made to work for his win is perhaps not surprising given it was his first run since sustaining a fractured pelvis during his last race of the previous season at Punchestown. He was then a distant fourth in the Grade One Hatton's Grace Hurdle over 20f on goodish ground at Fairyhouse, perhaps feeling the effects of his debut. Nonetheless he was now participating once more in regular training, racing and recovery and his next start in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle perhaps hinted at the way in which he was being brought along through the winter. A Grade One four-runner contest over three miles on soft ground, the gallop and class of opponent was moderate. Rule The World travelled notably easily deep into the race, as far as coming off the final bend and into the straight. He was not properly shaken up and asked to race until the run to the final flight, which he jumped with a clear advantage. Although Rule The World maintained the pace of his gallop after the last flight, he was readily mown down by Zaidpour and, interestingly, as soon as Zaidpour was past him his jockey immediately relinquished the contest and eased his mount, creating the visual impression of Zaidpour going away from him strongly and easily. What has to be considered therefore is not the "form" of the contest but what Rule The World did with his available energy in a race he looked set to win impressively, or at least just win. In a distance of around two hundred yards Rule The World went from travelling in his comfort zone to having to transfer his energy behind the bridle, which is normal. Over the next two hundred yards he went from holding an advantage of over a length to being caught and passed without much response. It appears to be the case therefore that over hurdles he may be lack the kind of energy distribution to be effective at a high level - just the kind of positive required for his staying chase career. His residual class carries him through his races over hurdles, as was evidenced by his performance in the Neptune where he had no answer to the pace injection of The New One. But over hurdles he is not gaining the kind of energy advantage that his size, power and class would accumulate over fences. As a result his opponents are able to stay with him more easily and over hurdles all he can do is transfer his energy behind the bridle but with only a moderate effect that prolongs the intensity of his previous gallop without increasing his racing power. He obviously stays three miles well enough, but the shape of his energy distribution curve is not at its strongest at the end of his races over this distance, where it will need to be in a World Hurdle. If this is correct, however, he will potentially make a very good staying chaser, further physical progress permitting.

Fences Rule: Rule The World's energy distribution system will likely be at its optimal racing ratio when he tackles fences; hurdles proffer him little advantage

Whereas Zarkandar has already had a busy career at the highest level over hurdles, proving at Aintree last season why he had long needed middle distances at Grade One level. Over two miles in open company he lacked the ability to perform tactical pace change-ups which left him stranded during the phases where he transferred his energy behind the bridle. With the pressure on that racing aspect released over a longer distance, he stormed to an impressive victory over the then-novice The New One over 20f at Aintree on good ground. All the race performance indicators as well as a proven Grade One success suggested that an increase in distance would be forthcoming this season but for whatever reason - one has never really been provided - Zarkandar was again reduced to two miles for the International Hurdle at Cheltenham (17f, Good) where he was comprehensively outraced by the now more physically mature The New One, and for the Kingwell Hurdle (16f, Heavy) where he was mastered late by Melodic Rendezvous. 

Either side of those runs he had raced twice against Annie Power over middle distances. First time out he gave the mare 11lbs and a hard race over 20f at Ascot on good to soft ground. They were both making their seasonal debuts and both were all out jumping the last, having duelled from some way out. The war continued for some time after the last until Annie Power outlasted her rival to score decisively by the time the finishing line approached, but even that does not tell the whole story. In light of the weight differential, Zarkandar ran a screamer. He injected his own pace to proceedings on the run to the fourth last and this simple pace change-up caught Annie Power off guard: she went through the top of four out, was untidy at three out, and left her back legs in the second last. Only when she had adapted to the pace finally did she produce a clean jump at the last. This race could be a more reliable guide to March than when the mud was flying in winter but regardless Zarkandar confirmed himself as the leading 20f Grade One horse from last season.

Full flight: The race that most closely corresponded to what will unfold in March saw Zarkandar (left) press Annie Power into all out action until the very last moments, on highly unfavourable terms

Their second meeting was more clear cut: with a moderate gallop in a three-runner contest on soft ground over 20.5f at Cheltenham with Annie Power in receipt of 7lbs, the mare moved much the better through the race and cartwheeled away at the last, seeming to relish the always softening ground and extra distance she had hinted at at Ascot. However, it has to be taken into consideration the way in which Zarkandar was anchored in rear (unlike at Ascot), purposefully setting off adrift of the other two runners indicative of a run where winning was not a primary concern, although he tried to do so on the run to the last. Zarkandar will enjoy the better ground and the stronger galloping pace of a Festival contest but it is difficult to suggest he will stay resolutely enough to reverse the placings with a horse who has bested him twice and will once again have a healthy weight concession in her favour.

Annie Power has so far provided relatively little analytical material. She has come to the UK three times, to the credit of her connections, but in so doing she has faced the same rival twice - the first of which was highly revealing as indicated above - and the third contest was little more than an exercise canter dropped to two miles prior to a three mile Festival race. It would have been indicative of a stronger preparation method had she contested the Cleeve Hurdle but the evidence suggests she is being "nursed" to the Festival and it is likely to be her mentality that is being protected the most. At Cheltenham in the rain her physicality was a weapon: she powered through the sodden turf and surface water as if it was the most natural of things, although her jump at the last suggested either tiredness or lack of concentration. Notable in this race overall was the fact that she never really had to switch behind the bridle. She essentially beat Zarkandar by using energy from within her comfort zone not altogether unlike the style in which Oscar Whisky would saunter around the track over middle distances only to be found wanting when a completely different type of energy distribution and racing power was required. 

Soaked: Annie Power (right) will have to combine the sheer physical power of her gallop with the desire she showed behind the bridle at Ascot to be effective in the World Hurdle

It may transpire that it was out of respect for the shorter distance leanings of the owner that Annie Power was not asked to race over three miles at any stage this season, for there were certainly opportunities aplenty to do so in small fields of moderate quality, and also on record is the vision of her very much as a chaser with the Arkle in mind for next season. She is clearly a horse of immense potential; but all too frequently horses for whom there are high hopes have not necessarily demonstrated on a racecourse the qualities big races demand and, specifically, there can be a tendency to project upon the horse a performance for which s/he is not designed ideally for. As favourite for the race and in the company of a four time World Hurdle winner it may be expected that she has fully demonstrated her qualities for this event, but she has not. There is nothing wrong with projecting a hugely improved performance on the big stage - she clearly has talent, power and desire - but she does not have unlimited stores of energy and there are justifiable concerns about her mental ability to settle and harness her On/Behind bridle ratio to maximum effect. Such concerns would diminish sharply should Big Buck's not line up.

In that scenario the whole complexion of the race would change, as it did last year when Solwhit won the race following an opening gallop that resembled a crawl. But with Big Buck's in the race the runners know they will at the very least be asked to race to a point somewhere near the limit of their energy reserves behind the bridle. In short, the more energy that runners in this race consume during the "On" aspect of their bridle ratio through the race, so the less energy they will have to transfer behind the bridle and sustain a lung-bursting run to the front of the field - essentially what has been seen in each of Big Buck's victories here. For sure, those opponents were being outclassed but at the same time they stood little chance precisely because of that On/Behind conflict in the way they delivered their energy through the race transitions. This race demands something quite specific that most horses just are not designed for, whereas at other times on other racecourses they can cope perfectly adequately. But in the Cleeve Hurdle At Fisher's Cross finally served notice of everything he had promised to deliver from the emphatic culmination of his novice season. He accumulated six consecutive wins each with progressive authority in particular following his victory over The New One on heavy ground over 20.5f at Cheltenham. At the Festival he won in the style of, well, Big Buck's and earned what is effectively glowing Grade One praise in this division: "stayed on strongly to draw clear final 100yds". His win at Aintree on better ground cemented the visual impression of a horse running very much in the mould of a classy but throughly tough staying hurdler: he simply outclassed them. 

Along the way, soft ground cushioned the blows to a physicality that had to be managed and nursed through the season. Rarely are physical problems detailed so openly, especially when they appear to be in multiple form, but that he was suffering some kind of physical pain was made immediately apparent on his first two starts in open company leaving his trainer to reveal their full extent:

As such, as his jockey observed recently, At Fisher's Cross' performance in the Cleeve Hurdle was "his" opening gambit for the season - the first time where he had control of his race transitions, though he nonetheless had six miles of race conditioning in his system to help his "debut" effort. He began in last place, indicative of both the problems that had gone before and the desire for him to grow into the race in his own time. He spotted Big Buck's, who he would eventually catch, around five to seven lengths for most of the race. He jumped the second and third hurdles a little big but from then on he was mainly very good. As Big Buck's pressed the pace on the second circuit, McCoy moved his horse forward more, part of a move that in conjunction with Boston Bob created the "Wave Of Five" image stalking race leader Big Buck's on the descent. His gallop pace and transfer of energy phase was unproblematic but McCoy did ease his efforts approaching the last, losing a little momentum as a trade to help ensure there was no mistake and once over the hurdle he picked up again to surge at the line, just failing. 

Clawback: This snapshot after the last hurdle shows the ground At Fisher's Cross made up on the run to the finishing line, a move that would have required a significant amount of available energy on deep turf

At Fisher's Cross' big positive is the way he moves into his races with progressive strength. He has the class to be close enough to the pace and/or make ground on the leaders and the type of energy distribution that is synonymous with hardened stayers, transferring a significant amount behind the bridle without losing momentum or ground, and finding the will and desire to put it to use as the race deepens. His energy distribution mirrors the stages through which it is demanded by the race, which is not the case for most runners. It is possible he will be finishing his race with the most power of all the runners; as such, providing his physicality holds out, he may be best placed to take advantage of any faltering steps ahead of him.

All of which depends entirely on whether BIG BUCK'S can sustain his effort for slightly longer than in the Cleeve Hurdle, where he ran a top class race. As is their right, a great many observers will suggest the Big Buck's of old would have won the race. But what a peculiar arrangement of the mentality to wand away 420 days of absence, miles of walking, swathes of uphill gallops and a nerveless attempt to break everything in the race just as he did every time in the Good Old Days. That he was still in front a hundred yards from the line after three miles on the front end in bottomless ground was remarkable and a reminder that but for wear and tear on a tendon he would still be far in advance of anything that stepped into the division.

Big Buck's does not have unlimited energy, nor did his rivals here, and the shape of the Cleeve Hurdle was designed by two high class horses effectively on comeback missions, and a horse of lesser ability outstripping his own physical peak after a breathing operation. Before the analytics of the Cleeve Hurdle become apparent it can be said that, with the outcome unknown, Big Buck's may "bounce"; he may regress from his comeback; he may simply be running to a much lower level than before; and that whatever he is capable of now does not include the concession of 7lbs to Annie Power. All this is possible and a potential reality, which is why the evidence from the Cleeve Hurdle suggesting he is still as good as ever takes on even more significance for understanding the outcome of the race, whatever that may be.

The snapshots will highlight the following: that the Cleeve Hurdle was a battle of physicality, available energy and its efficiency of distribution, not one of residual class. Big Buck's is first time out after 420 days; At Fisher's Cross is physically sound enough to race proper for the first time in the season, but has some miles of conditioning in the legs; Knockara Beau has hardened race conditioning having run over 26f, 28f and 26f, the last of which followed a breathing operation and brought him forward from his already strong runs in the season.

1. Knockara Beau leads, Big Buck's is prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back;
2. Quartz De Thaix is just behind Knockara Beau until forcing the pace himself at the fifth hurdle, Big Buck's remains prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back;
3. After a circuit and at the 7th of 12 hurdles Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau and Big Buck's are close together, the back three runners are closer to them, At Fisher's Cross is at the back. The front duo have alternated the pace on the first circuit ensuring a solid gallop and now take a breather, hence the field closes up. Same at the eighth hurdle;
4. After the ninth hurdle Big Buck's makes his move to press the pace and goes beyond Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau has now dropped away to third;
5. At the tenth hurdle Big Buck's leads Quartz De Thaix and Boston Bob has moved into the third place, a move that will cost him later on, Knockara Beau has dropped back to last place, behind At Fisher's Cross;
6. On the descent Big Buck's freewheels with a clear advantage probably trying to "fill up" as he is stalked by the "Wave Of Five" in a line behind him;
7. Turning for home, Knockara Beau makes instant inroads up the inner to be in second place as the "Wave Of Five" break the line behind Big Buck's; At Fisher's Cross is fourth;
8. At the last hurdle Big Buck's is leading, Knockara Beau is second and At Fisher's Cross is third.

The extent to which Big Buck's tracks, maintains and then forces the pace is made clear, whereas Knockara Beau is effectively "feeling it" mid-race but following the breathing operation is able to muster a "second wind" and races towards the front again, his mid-race break effectively conserving his energy. At Fisher's Cross runs an even race, delivered into the contest late by McCoy and continually finding reserves of energy for pressure. They both pass Big Buck's once his efforts deplete him close home. That Knockara Beau won tells us this was not a race decided by residual class levels, by how good the horses are on this day; if that were so, Knockara Beau should run in the World Hurdle and go very close, when everything we know says that is not the case.

1. Knockara Beau leads, Big Buck's is prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back

2. Quartz De Thaix is just behind Knockara Beau until forcing the pace himself at the fifth hurdle, Big Buck's remains prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back

3. After a circuit and at the 7th of 12 hurdles Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau and Big Buck's are close together, the back three runners are closer to them, At Fisher's Cross is at the back. The front duo have alternated the pace on the first circuit and now take a breather, hence the field closes up. Same order at the eighth hurdle

 4. After the ninth hurdle Big Buck's makes his move to press the pace and goes beyond Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau has now dropped away to third

5. At the tenth hurdle Big Buck's leads Quartz De Thaix and Boston Bob has moved into the third place, a move that will cost him later on, Knockara Beau has dropped back to last place, behind At Fisher's Cross

6. On the descent Big Buck's freewheels with a clear advantage probably trying to "fill up" as he is stalked by the "Wave Of Five"

7. Turning for home, Knockara Beau makes instant inroads up the inner to be in second place as the "Wave Of Five" break the line behind Big Buck's; At Fisher's Cross is fourth

8. At the last hurdle Big Buck's is leading, Knockara Beau is second and At Fisher's Cross is third

On better ground with more physical strength and conditioning, Big Buck's will again run the same kind of race as in the Cleeve Hurdle. In theory he should not stop this time, as he did not stop in his four previous battles. It is as if, analytically, the three big players are on string and each thread is pulled, released and aligned more closely in accordance with changes in energy distribution and physical robustness of each horse. Annie Power will have her comfort zone running stressed more and for longer than ever before, prior to having to race proper behind the bridle; At Fisher's Cross will have to feel no pain and jump accordingly before delivering his strong energy reserves behind the bridle off the home bend; and Big Buck's will need to be half asleep as ever through the first circuit and not press the button too early if he is to sustain what had been prior to injury an unbeatable injection of pace and class.

It is hard to know for sure how closely those strings will intertwine.

Gold Cup 2014: Towards Raceday

Energy and persistence conquer all things 

- Benjamin Franklin

Providing, of course, they have the requisite levels of residual class. The "surprise" of Synchronised made opaque the danger of a rigid mind - he had won the Grade One Lexus Chase easily after all. It would still be fair to say, however, that he took advantage of a division which in that year was sorely lacking in structural depth. That structure opened the door but his energy, persistence and class kicked it down. Other renewals were arguably more straightforward with the high class horses proving their high classness. This has been something with which First Lieutenant has struggled, winning only one of his twelve races since a fine second to Bobs Worth in the RSA Chase two years ago. His achievements in defeat over fences since winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle are notable: the RSA second with two Grade One seconds spaced out either side; second in a Hennessy Gold Cup, second in a Lexus Chase, second in a Ryanair Chase (beaten 9L by Cue Card); third in a Punchestown Gold Cup and second again in the Lexus Chase (beaten again by Bobs Worth). His solitary win in this time frame was very good but at the end of the season, when all the main hands had been played. He will need key rivals to blunder their chance away but a place is not out of the question given his admirable consistency at the Festival (122). He is, however, more than likely a probable runner in the Ryanair Chase.

Last Instalment has returned to the fray seemingly with his primary weapons in tact: residual class and jumping alacrity fired him to a Grade One Irish Hennessy win over a veteran Tidal Bay at Leopardstown. Twenty-three months prior to his comeback run at Thurles he had returned with sore legs after winning the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Chase on good ground in a manner confirming him as Ireland's premier novice chaser - Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant would fight out the RSA Chase he missed. His trainer revealed that he had "jarred both tendons" in a front leg; a year later the other leg would flare up with heat in the near-fore tendon, so fears of a good ground Gold Cup are well founded. 

His return has been impressive, albeit with some apparent overstatement in a division shorn of competition for the two big UK players. The second and third from last season's race will not appear: time and battle scars have overtaken Long Run and tendon damage this time claimed Sir Des Champs; whilst last season's novices have not proved to be of the calibre of their immediate predecessors. Last Instalment's return at Thurles (20f, Soft) was promising in so much as he ran a race that indicated he would progress from it with much of his old ability in tact. He was prominent the whole way and capable of fully tangling with the useful Texas Jack and Baily Green before being bested by those fitter, sharper rivals close home. 

In the Irish Hennessy he had progressed physically and dominated his mid-tier rivals. The intention had not been to lead but he had clearly thrived from his return race and flew the second fence to take a clear advantage, was untidy at the next, then jumped with panache for the rest of the way, if slightly right at times. The most significant aspect of this race, other than the usual metronome performance of his old Topaz Novice Chase rival First Lieutenant, was that Tidal Bay tried to race him down the far side after the tenth of seventeen fences. This was unusual because Tidal Bay is usually given a more waiting, patient ride so that he can be switched off mentally and come through horses late on, as he did to such dramatic effect when winning the Lexus Chase last season. In actual fact this still happened: Tidal Bay raced Last Instalment in a close second but soon realised that either the effort or the ability was not forthcoming and he began to steadily drop back through the field, to the point where he was joint-last and then last of the seven runners on the run to the final turn. He was a long way off the pace but still managed to pick off every horse bar the winner on the run to the line. His efforts are noted because he ensured that Last Instalment had to race proper for key phases of the second circuit. The difference in residual class levels was evident from the fact that the field were being ridden and asked to transfer energy behind the bridle approaching the final bend whereas Last Instalment simply increased the intensity of his gallop and drew away from them quite easily, shaken up to maintain his advantage and only hit with the whip close home most likely because of the nervous excitement of the jockey in victory. 

Easy Does It: Last Instalment won the Irish Hennessy comfortably but must now prove he has a level of physical rigour well beyond that shown in his novice seasons

This would not fall under the "hard race" umbrella - such a term can misleading in any case because it fails to acknowledge the fact that part of an elite horse's makeup is the toughness of mentality to race at the highest level where competition and racing is often "hard". However, the physical impact of such races can have a cumulative effect which - as well as race availability and scheduling - is why the very best horses in their division will only race around four times in a season: Last Instalment will be attempting his third race in just eight weeks and that race is the most demanding of them all. It is therefore a peculiar state of affairs that in the modern era the physiology, physicality and performance analysis of such demands is simply a matter of personal opinion without any semblance of creditable scientific data and knowledge being available. What we can say about Last Instalment is that he began his hurdles career in February 2011. He won on debut then had a seven week break. He then ran three times over the space of a calendar month and was pulled up on the third and final run of that sequence. In his novice chase season his runs were more sensibly spaced out, progressing through four runs in five months before developing tendon problems. In open company the concern is now a third race in eight weeks allied to the fact that the third race this time is the most physically demanding Graded race in the national hunt calendar. The "form" says he has beaten a thirteen year old veteran given an unusually forcing ride during a key phase of the second circuit and a horse that is continually beaten in elite company chases, but it will be his physicality that holds the key to his chance.

Nor do the concerns regarding race exertion and physicality preclude the possibility of victory. Last Instalment winning the Gold Cup would in theory provide as much insight into race performance analytics as would defeat. His two races in under a month may be a positive: building the muscular energy potential of a horse capable of being the best in the race, allowing him to run to a level that a one or three race programme may not have provided for. The salient point is not trying to predict an outcome we cannot know in advance but that the amount of agreeable, rigorous and available information to help guide that prediction is negligible. Last Instalment's quest for excellence also faces a problem beyond his own scope: the presence of two outstanding staying chasers, the Gold Cup winner and King George VI Chase winner. As the structural depth model provided pre-season and here at the end of December detailed, the two most foreboding obstacles to Gold Cup success have cemented their place in the upper echelons of the elite. 

With so much known about their quality, it can be left to others to favour either SILVINIACO CONTI or BOBS WORTH. Bobs Worth is simply fantastic. Diminutive in size but with an extraordinary ability to both keep touch with elite gallop pace and then transfer relatively huge amounts of energy behind the bridle to the point where he almost starts his own race within a race, surging in sustained fashion towards the finishing line from two or three furlongs out (depending on in-race shape). A triple Cheltenham Festival winner gunning for an unprecedented fourth consecutive success, he won the Lexus Chase impressively off a moderate gallop with his trademark energy distribution curve. One day he may wear wing-mirrors, to see the trail of destruction and desolation he leaves in his wake. But for his Haydock "experiment" he would be unbeaten in two years, although admittedly he has not raced much. 

Over and Out: Having jumped with excellent fluency in the main, Silviniaco Conti (pink) fails to lift his knees and, prior to this image, can be seen moving his lower legs through the fence at halfway; Long Run's mistake was similar; Bobs Worth had moved upsides Silviniaco Conti earlier in the race but had been outjumped, which conversely now gave him the time to swerve the fall and win decisively

Silviniaco Conti cannot boast the Festival record of his main rival but in winning the King George VI Chase impressively he added top notch staying power to his more tactically inspired, front-running Betfair Chase (2012) Grade One portfolio. A year younger than Bobs Worth, he just keeps getting better and has built towards Cheltenham this season with more substance over style than last year, where moving well and racing within his comfort zone he brushed through the top of three out and came down. Having not raced since the King George he will need to control his energy on the first circuit; in that respect the natural exuberance shown by Last Instalment at Leopardstown may see the Irish horse lead the field on the first circuit, although his connections would no doubt prefer another horse to perform that duty. It will be interesting to see the degree of tactically planning in Silviniaco Conti's run - going for home too early simply creates a target for his main rival to aim at. What his connections may have in mind is more of a controlling race akin to his Betfair Chase victory, storing as much energy as possible for deep into the race to resist the inevitable, destructive surge of the reigning champion. Closely matched in terms of ability, it is likely to be jumping and energy distribution efficiency that decides the contest.

Queen Mother Champion Chase 2014 - Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by the descending order of reference

Though nature be ever so generous, yet can she not make a hero alone. Fortune must contribute her part too; and till both concur, the work cannot be perfected

- François de La Rochefoucauld

Prior to this season nature and fortune had worked to create equine perfection; then fortune departed. Sprinter Sacre won all ten of his contests over fences by a cumulative 128 lengths all in breathtaking fashion or near enough. His absence from the race gives normal elite horses their chance to win this contest.

Although he has beaten the race favourite earlier in the season, Kid Cassidy has yet to join the elite ranks owing to the fact that he has yet to replicate that level of run - he was tailed off in the Grade One Dial-A-Bet Chase won by Benefficient on his next start. His defeat of Sire De Grugy in receipt of ten pounds was still a notable effort from a horse that had finished second in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at last season's Festival (17f, Soft). His overall profile suggests that his win had a lot to do with the conditions and aspects of his opponent's performance, which are covered below. He obviously has the talent to run well for a long way.

It is perhaps indicative of the power of the stable in which the super-elite Sprinter Sacre is housed that, with Simonsig also sitting out the season, there is an available understudy with the class of Captain Conan. He is a big, strapping horse with a lot of size and power for a two-miler, not unlike Arvika Ligeonniere. He enjoyed a prolonged, successful novice chase season where from five starts his only defeat came over the 20f distance of the Jewson Novices Chase, moving like the best horse in the race for a long way until a lack of stamina after the last left him defeated. Prior to that he had beaten Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham, beaten Hinterland at Sandown and perhaps fortuitously caught Third Intention over 21f on heavy ground again at Sandown - the race that gave rise to concerns about being able to sustain his class over extended distances. He showed no signs of distress after Cheltenham to win easily on good ground over 20f at Aintree, although the opposition was moderate. Four Graded novice race victories, three of them Grade Ones, left him primed for his transition into open company.

As is so often the case with horses of large physical size, the stress of racing does not always marry well with nature's plan of maturation and growth. Problems often arise and this season Captain Conan has raced only once when seven lengths behind Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek Chase (16f, Good), again running well for a long way. His trainer recently stated clearly that there had been problems with "low potassium levels" but whether this was as a result of treatment for other issues is unclear. In terms of winning a Queen Mother Champion Chase having not raced for over three months, his physicality is obviously compromised. It has to be taken on trust that the physical problems have been resolved, that the stress of racing will not lead to a recurrence and affect his race performance and, of course, that he is conditioned enough in elite terms to do much more than "go deep" in a race of this nature. Captain Conan possesses the requisite elite characteristics for this contest but time may prove that he will benefit from another summer of physical development before realising the levels of residual class that loiter in his profile. His two main rivals, for example, have accumulated nine chase starts between them this season, an indication of their own physical robustness and health so far.

Sire De Grugy has been a revelation, winning four of his five chase starts this term. He has not escaped physical problems either, suffering a broken pelvis in the winter of his novice chase season, a hairline fracture specifically. His connections ran out of time in their bid to prepare him fully for the Grade One Maghull Novices Chase but he showed the benefit of being back racing and working by winning easily at Stratford and then claiming the Grade Two Celebration Chase on good ground at the end of the season, all three of those runs coming in the same month, April, revealing a measure of mental and physical tenacity.

Top class horses handle almost any ground and Sire De Grugy's last two races show his desire this season to master all conditions, winning the Grade One Clarence House Chase effortlessly at Ascot on heavy ground and, prior to that, winning the Desert Orchid Chase (Sprinter Sacre pulled up) on soft ground at Kempton. "Effortlessly" is probably the wrong adjective. Sire De Grugy is not from the mould of fluid, strong travelling, glide-jumpers that often predominate in this division. For sure he has aspects of those features in his armoury but overall he gives the impression of having to work to show his excellence. He often sits off the pace in his races and his jumping - as will be pointed to below - is not always the most accurate. He obviously travels well but not for prolonged periods and his race transitions are less fluid than might be expected. In short he can appear to expend a lot of energy through his races, which makes the way in which he finishes them so strongly quite remarkable.

The one time he was caught out - the sole defeat in his last seven races - appears to have given rise to a peculiar but widespread statement that "he doesn't like Cheltenham". Given that this Shloer Chase race aside he had only raced at the track once before going down by only 2L to now-fellow Champion Chase contender Captain Conan on his second start over fences, that statement rests entirely on one performance, which is analytically odd. Not least because, although defeated, his run at Cheltenham (16f, Good) was actually impressive. For whatever reason that day Sire De Grugy did not appear able to gain traction on the surface at some of his fences and the runners were notably kicking the top off the turf. He gave the appearance of slipping as he propelled himself forward towards some of his fences, causing him to not take off from exactly where he wanted to and meaning that he felt the need to reach out his front legs for extra forward momentum. There may have been a light shower on the day; it could have been something more random but he was not at his most comfortable, which is where the impression of "not liking" the course may have arisen from.

Grip It: Only Sire De Grugy appeared to struggle with the surface at Cheltenham, nearly slipping over and unshipping his jockey after the fourth fence

Reaching: The front legs are thrust out early, indicative of reaching out to generate more distance, like a long-jumper. Reaching can require the use of more energy than usual

Almost: For a horse that it is suggested "does not like" the racecourse Sire De Grugy is leading and clear just 150 yards from the finish

With all that he was giving away ten pounds to the talented Kid Cassidy. It was a tremendous effort for an early season affair and he has not looked back since. Sire De Grugy was authoritative at Sandown in the Tingle Creek Chase (16f, Good) but again what was impressive was that despite dropping energy and momentum with poor jumps across all three railway fences - he barged through the second of them - he was still able to command relatively large amounts of energy deep into the race, powering away up the hill to win by four lengths. The extent to which he is able to summon significant amounts of energy from both the "On" and "Behind" aspects of his bridle ratio makes him a formidable opponent over two miles this season and whilst it would be no surprise to see him win this contest decisively he will need to concentrate his jumping mind because errors of momentum are likely to be punished here more than they have before.

ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE's chance may actually have been better had Sprinter Sacre turned up for the race. As with Captain Conan, Arvika Ligeonniere is a big, strapping two mile chaser with a powerful, ground devouring gallop potential. He would have benefitted the most from Sprinter Sacre's energy sapping pace, whilst Sprinter Sacre himself would have been at his most vulnerable in this race, effectively a first chase start of the season had he turned up.

When classy horses have a large frame to use a lot of their earlier career form has to be placed in the context of a physicality that is far from complete, more so than horses of lesser size. With an immature frame the task of running fast over two miles or further in soft or deep ground can have a taxing effect on the body. This is most likely what has transpired with Arvika Ligeonniere but seemingly by coincidence his third start on each of the last two seasons has been left- rather than right-handed and it is on his third start where he is most likely to be feeling the effects of his previous races. In his novice chase season his third race came in the space of seven weeks and he fell in the Irish Arkle Novices Chase won by Benefficient, something that is probably closely linked with his no-show in the Arkle at Cheltenham on his next start. None of that had any lasting effect, however, as he won the Grade One Ryanair Chase at Punchestown comprehensively that April.

Stepping into open company he was assigned his first two races on decent ground over 20f, winning the Clonmel Oil Chase comfortably despite a couple of slight mistakes and then winning the Grade One John Durkan Chase easily following the departure of Sir Des Champs early on. This time his third race came in the space of six weeks and again it can be argued that it was his most demanding race physically. His connections may have been aware of this as for some reason he was held up in rear for the early stages of the race; his jockey reported afterwards that this did not benefit a horse that is a strong galloping type. As such, his horse was asked to use his energy in a different way, to make ground from rear and then race proper, rather than using his energy more evenly in a way that hitherto had complimented his natural rhythm of prominent, powerful galloping momentum. He did everything right but could not match the winner and it was again Benefficient who profited (Hidden Cyclone second). Significant analytically is that after the last fence Arvika Ligeonniere could do nothing to affect the other two horses but that was precisely because he had been held up in rear through the early and mid stages of the race and from there also he could do nothing to affect the bridle ratios of those in front of him. Unable to impose any of his own qualities on the contest he was effectively a hostage in the race regardless of whether he was physically sharp enough to win.

Powerglide: Arvika Ligeonniere may now have realised the full armoury of his physical potential

He resumed his upward curve with an emphatic display in the Tied Cottage Chase, travelling powerfully close to the leader and effortlessly extending away. Reflecting on his only defeat of the season his jockey and later his trainer too relayed how things would be done differently at Cheltenham, confirming in their own minds at least that he was not used to best effect when beaten. This in all likelihood means that Arvika Ligeonniere will be making the running or tracking the leader closely and pressing his physical and class advantage early in the race, applying pressure to those in behind. If that is the case he will have the perfect jockey to effect a front-running, tactically adept race in which he can finally deliver on the promise of his considerable athletic prowess.

Ryanair Chase 2014 - Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference

Winter is a season of recovery and preparation
- Paul Theroux

Which may describe two of the leading contenders for this contest. As does something else, because nothing describes the 2008-2013 Grade One Ryanair Chase more simply than the fact that all bar one of the last six winners (with Albertas Run counted twice) ran in the King George VI Chase in the same season and Riverside Theatre was second in the race in the season before his win. The structural reasoning behind this preparatory golden pathway can be left aside here; but that we are looking for a top class horse to emerge as the winner is - until the evidence presents itself otherwise - not in doubt. 

First Lieutenant ran with great credit in this race last year. He has become a metronome for Grade One races but, Aintree last season apart, he has never really threatened the top ranks often enough. He has been analysed in detail elsewhere and is talented but on any ground over any trip his energy distribution is too even and lacking in power behind the bridle. If others falter he can go close, however.

Benefficient showed he had progressed into open company elite status when backing up his Irish Arkle and Jewson Novices Chase wins from last season with victory in the Grade One Dial-A-Bet Chase (17f, Soft) at Leopardstown. Last season he ran five times prior to beating Dynaste at Cheltenham (20f, GS) whereas this season he has run only twice (bar a seemingly random flat run in September). His trainer admitted to working him too hard prior to his run over three miles at Wetherby, where in the lead-up to the race he had worked Benefficient with the all-or-nothing input of Flemenstar. The strenuous workout apparently hollowed the Beneficial chestnut. Yet the mental and physical resolution that was the hallmark of his Jewson Novices Chase win emerged once again at Leopardstown: recovery and preparation combined to deliver an effort that made his running after the last fence stronger than his rivals. 

The question mark for Benefficient is residual class. With his Charlie Hall Chase excursion finishing with a tailed off effort his only run with intent this season was his win over two miles. The dominance of King George runners in this race shows the extent to which stamina is a pre-requisite under normal conditions - it is possible that this was the reason for starting in the three mile Charlie Hall Chase but the plan went awry. His beating of Dynaste at the Festival is covered in more detail below, but there were few stamina concerns evident given that he was sent into a positive front-running gallop from the off. He stayed there until brushing through the top of three out at which point Dynaste, then alongside him, flew the fence and the differing physical momentum of the two horses at that point separated them by a few lengths as they made their descent (with Captain Conan jumping in between them). Benefficient's two mile pace gallop had been jolted slightly but it was nonetheless impressive how, gathered in and allowed to fill up down the hill, he was able to command a transfer of energy behind the bridle to such an extent that he could surge to the head of the field once more after jumping the last impressively. He was aided in that quest, without doubt, by the fact that Captain Conan was emptying and that Dynaste was feeling the strain of his own pace injection three out, compounded by a preparation for the race that had not been physically straightforward. Dynaste tired notably close home, for example. 

Energy Delivery Systems: Captain Conan (left) tired dramatically into fifth; Dynaste (middle) tired notably close home but held second; Benefficient had experienced a more robust season of the three and his physicality had been hardened as a result

Benefficient is therefore a strong, tactically versatile horse that tries extremely hard on any kind of ground. He can be asked to lead, race prominently or in smaller fields be held off the pace a little. He is capable of using his energy with great efficiency. So for him it depends on the extent to which a Grade One Festival gallop over a furlong further than the Jewson Novices version affects the class of performance delivery against horses that have shown themselves adept at Grade One level over that distance or further. In that sense for a horse that thrived on racing in his novice season it is perhaps a slight concern that he has not stood more racing this season. Whether that inaction compromises his effort remains to be seen.

On first glance Al Ferof's career has stalled. That is obviously true to a point at the time of writing but the interesting question is to what extent has his season been mapped out that way. His ebullient owner had dreamed of Gold Cups after his Supreme Novices Hurdle win in the hottest renewal of recent times. His Paddy Power Handicap Chase win began to align him with the Imperial Commander pathway and - delayed by a tendon injury - that initial point has now been reached. Imperial Commander went from winning the same handicap, to a no-show performance in the King George owing to a physical conformation issue that hindered right-handed participation, to winning the Ryanair Chase on his next start (and later on the Gold Cup itself). Al Ferof's progression was halted just prior to the King George of 2012, but he made the 2013 version to run a fifteen lengths third to Silviniaco Conti (winner) and Cue Card (second), but never really looked comfortable on his second start back from absence on tacky, soft ground.

As highlighted at the start, running in the King George is significant because it is an indicator of the kinds of residual class and stamina levels required to win what is a demanding Grade One Chase at the Festival (Imperial Commander himself was beaten 72L in the race prior to his Ryanair Chase win; Albertas Run by 69L prior to his first win). In that sense and in its own right, Al Ferof's run was pleasing enough especially in light of the fact that the two in front of him were top class animals. What was not so pleasing was the extent to which he appeared to fold into his shell on his next start at Newbury in the Denman Chase (24f, Heavy), beaten twenty-five lengths by the mud-loving Harry Topper having been in close touch to that horse rounding the final turn, albeit still with a long way to go in the race. Analysing the run is a question of physicality, training programmes and trainer intention. On the surface the run was disappointing: he had been expected to win or at least improve upon his Kempton run but he faded in the manner of a horse with a physical or stamina issue. However, it could also have been the case that he was still fatigued from his King George exertions and/or that again the very deep ground was not to his liking on the day; and it is possible that he was sent to the race purely in preparatory terms - the race is one that his trainer has often used for horses he is preparing for the Festival and the instructions may have been to race for as long as possible before easing off with the expectation that he would tire, leaving over four weeks to train the horse into peak physical condition for March. 

Vain Pursuit: But was Al Ferof expected to run any differently in a race so close to his seasonal target

There are many unknowns: the weight of the horse pre- and post-race; the extent to which he had been prepared at home for a race that is not a target race for top horses; what was revealed privately after the race to connections by the jockey and so on. What we do know is that his trainer has long thought the Ryanair Chase as the most suitable target for his horse. His owner and former jockey repeated the Gold Cup mantra prior to Newbury, but Paul Nicholls always had Silviniaco Conti for the King George-Gold Cup route. Given that Al Ferof won a Supreme over two miles and travelled smoothly and easily through a Paddy Power Gold Cup over 20.5f, allied to time off the track and two defeats over three miles, this race offers the grey the chance to exhibit his potential once again where better ground would be a big help. His overall profile remains in-keeping with Ryanair Chase winners: Supreme winner, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, King George third; and he is with a trainer adept at bringing talented horses back to their peak or somewhere near it. It remains a big task but one well within the realms of possibility.

Recovery and preparation will also hold the key to the chances of DYNASTE. From the outset it is worth noting that his trainer has quite a poor record in Graded races at the Festival, something he will be hopeful of improving upon with his talented grey. To do so he will need to have had a smooth pathway to the Festival with his horse following Dynaste's recovery from pulled muscles sustained in the King George VI Chase as a result of which he finished fifth, beaten 47L. Had he just had an off day or problems with the ground the run would have been a positive - the timing of the race some eleven weeks before the Festival is ideal for keeping a horse ticking over through the winter months in preparation for March; but picking up a physical issue is not ideal. That said Dynaste runs well fresh; with this in mind it can be seen how his overall level of physicality will determine the strength of his effort in this race. 

Over hurdles Dynaste tangled three times with Big Buck's for a combined defeat of seventy-two lengths, sufficiently inferior enough to indicate that he would make a better chaser and that three miles would likely be too far for him. He was swiftly transferred to fences thereafter where he won three in a row prior to an interrupted pathway to the Jewson Novices Chase. His wins included a Grade One Feltham Novices Chase over three miles on heavy ground but the description is misleading: two fences were omitted and such was the moderate class level of his opponents that the race was run at a crawl early on and Dynaste won the race easily with a surge of tactical pace jumping four out. 

A similar pattern emerged in the Jewson Novices Chase. He tracked Benefficient in third or four place before moving alongside on the run to three out at which point he was moving so well that he outjumped his rival and held the race advantage going downhill to the final turn. It was a fairly bold move although whether it was determined by the jockey or the horse himself is hard to say. Dynaste had travelled well and injected decisive raw pace into each of his previous three chase runs. The difference here was that he was meeting a top novice with hardened race conditioning and a resilient mentality. Although capable of staying further than 20f (as he would later prove in the Betfair Chase) Dynaste began to physically tire from his own lack of race fitness and conditioning and approaching the last Benefficient had transferred his energy behind the bridle to continue galloping with power, moving past his rivals to win comfortably, his jockey celebrating well before the finishing line. 

Jolt: Benefficient ploughs his legs through the top of the third last fence, halting his momentum briefly; Dynaste flies the obstacle, moving strongly within his comfort zone at the time

Leader: the descent has confirmed the difference in momentum at the third last fence; Captain Conan advances also; gathered together and "filled up" running downhill, Benefficient now has energy to transfer behind the bridle

Left Leg In (image zoom): The difference in energy distribution from the third last to here, the final fence, sees a turnaround in fortunes; Dynaste and even more so Captain Conan are left with diminishing reserves of energy. Benefficient is more powerful behind the bridle

Fatigue: Captain Conan is fading into fifth; Dynaste has almost been caught by horses from a long way off the pace; Benfficient is dominant

The front two produced impressive performances in different ways and it is likely that this race brought Dynaste to a physical peak at Aintree next time out, where again he was visually impressive this time over three miles on good ground. His main opponent (Third Intention) was one he had already outclassed in the Feltham Novices Chase and is a non-stayer to date over three miles (W0 L5). 

Three miles would remain Dynaste's distance assignment for his first season in open company, where he ran the best race of his career at Haydock in a high class renewal of the Grade One Betfair Chase. This race would see the association between Cue Card and the adjective "stayer" grow closer, but the analytics of the race confirm that it was a masterclass in tactical pace control from the front, rather than a performance that relied in any meaningful way on stamina or, more accurately, sustained racing energy and power from behind the bridle. Cue Card was still a highly impressive winner, backing up his win with a creditable second in the King George. This provides the context for assessing Dynaste's effort in chasing Cue Card home at Haydock, where he gradually and continually crept closer and closer to the top class front-runner without in the end being able to land a telling blow from behind the bridle. The future King George winner, Silviniaco Conti, was just behind him although admittedly his trainer was using the contest as a prep race for his staying star. Dynaste's energy distribution was incredibly even but it was too even - the class of opponent and energy-sapping distance stretched out Dynaste's On/Behind bridle ratio into a straight line, whereas before there were spikes of decisive energy bursts. 

Just Too Far: Dynaste (left) splits two horses of the highest class in the Grade One Betfair Chase. If operating with maximum physicality he will be a potent threat in March

Over a shorter distance, on better ground, against slightly less imposing elite horses, Dynaste should prove capable of delivering a high class Grade One performance. As the Jewson Novices Chase showed he will need to be operating at maximum levels of physicality to do so. His trainer has sometimes struggled to prepare his horses in this respect with regard to the Festival and top class races; it is therefore a test for him as much as it is for Dynaste.

Supreme Novices Hurdle 2014 - Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference

Everything has been said before, but since nobody listens we have to keep going back and beginning all over again 

- André Gide

Roar.

Quite often during a season some things make plain little sense and the campaign and demands assigned to The Liquidator echo back through the winter months. The Liquidator's fourth to Briar Hill in the Cheltenham Bumper suggested many possible things but he didn't travel through the race under the cover of a two miler, lacking tactical gallop pace at crucial points but staying on resolutely. Of course, we are not to know his level of maturity or stage of physicality at that point and his opening stroll around Carlisle this season revealed little.

His next start was "interesting", at Cheltenham on good ground in a Supreme Novices titled trial race (17f), but the analytics of the performance revealed any number of concerns. As a race it was a non-event with none of his three opponents proving capable or interested in racing him on the day. It emerged after that they had wanted "to take the sting out of Sea Lord's finish" but that horse was struggling from a long way out, perhaps with a physical problem (hasn't raced since). The Liquidator therefore set off in front and at a good pace, slightly keen early on but well enough settled with proficient jumping. Interestingly, he was going so unnecessarily fast having run downhill to two out that although jumping the hurdle well enough he almost pecked significantly on landing, but did well to maintain his balance and pick up his gallop. Nonetheless, this was not a performance that allowed for an even distribution of energy; nor was it the run of a "speedy" two miler in a stalking-the-pace mode. Approaching and around the final bend his jockey began shaking his reins repeatedly with a slap to the neck each time: asking for more, almost like a test. On straightening to aim at the hill he was given a crack of the whip - all this despite being well clear with the race won having already gone unnecessarily quick - and with the horse appearing to tire from his earlier running, was ridden strongly out towards the line.

Afterwards his trainer admitted that it was "not the ideal way to ride him today" referring to his own choice of tactics with his jockey pointing to winning the Punchestown Champion Bumper as an indication of stamina requirements. Overall, this run was a clear exercise in learning more about the horse's On/Behind bridle ratio and his energy distribution capabilities. When the stamina sapping Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was switched to the sharper, speedier Kempton Park track David Pipe was much less keen to run in the race, but still did so.

Lean and Keen: The Liquidator's 'barrel' or girth appears slight towards the back end or flank hind

The Liquidator was disappointing, beaten a long way out. As at Cheltenham he seemed to naturally tire a long way out but this time the competition was much stronger and they glided past him easily. His energy distribution is a major concern and could be symptomatic of a physical/breathing problem. His lean back-end is also a worry and he would do well to be afforded more time to mature and strengthen.

Wicklow Brave did not run over hurdles until the beginning of this year after running five times in under six months in Bumper races. He was given a three month break at the end of last year and presumably the plan was always to allow him to contest a couple of moderate hurdle races before taking in the Festival. He is clearly talented as, his debut aside, but for a narrow reverse in a twenty-three runner Bumper in May he would be unbeaten. He has the ability to travel through moderate races comfortably and his superiority in his races to date has arisen from the strong work he performs during the "on" aspect of his bridle ratio. That said, he was made to work hard for his victory on more than one Bumper occasion and has shown that he can transfer energy behind the bridle in sufficient amounts to maintain his galloping advantage over his pursuers.

On debut he drew away from the field effortlessly from well within his comfort zone, a performance that can be seen on almost any racecourse throughout the season. His most recent start was a better race, contested by two Gigginstown Stud representatives and one of those, Lieutenant Colonel, had chased home Vautour in a thirty-runner maiden hurdle prior to winning himself by fourteen lengths next time. On heavy ground Wicklow Brave showed a willing mentality but one that lacked a little professionalism as in closing the ground on his two main rivals from third place he rattled the top of the second last and then skewed his back end as he bundled through the last, before picking up and drawing away without much effort. An excellent and more detailed review of that performance and his other runs can be found here. The concerns here relate to his energy distribution curve. He would not be the first high-profile two-mile novice hurdler to fight for his head and jump naively at times but seldom do such horses win Supreme Novice Hurdles. The question is whether he sheds unnecessary energy through the race and, if not, whether his ability is then sufficient to take him deep into the race. Overall, the fact that he has not been asked to contest a Graded race during his preparation may hint at some of the mental and professional fragility at this early stage. Wicklow Brave has cruise-and-stalk momentum which will be suited to better ground and there is nothing wrong at all with an under-the-radar, gentle approach to this race but the suspicion remains that he will lack the levels of concentration needed to hurdle efficiently as he copes with a more frantic gallop at a much higher level.

Concentrate: Wicklow Brave bends down the last hurdle at Punchestown. Mistakes happen but the mentality must be mature enough to overcome them during a Festival level gallop

In contrast to Wicklow Brave, Josses Hill was assigned a Grade One contest on only his second start. Before then he had run twice in Bumpers: the first when second and slammed 22L by Faugheen (16f, Y); the second when comfortably winning (16f, G/S). Josses Hill is already a six year old and his frame has acquired the physical stamp of a chaser, so the question is to what extent is that frame being filled by muscular, physical strength and how much is being asked of him by connections this season. Certainly his trainer had no reservations about running him in a 22-runner field at Newbury in soft ground on debut in December. This was a fairly robust physical assignment and the inference seems to be that connections wanted as full an experience as possible, with the enduring feeling that they wanted to mould their horse to the conditions of a big two mile event. Josses Hill went through the race in sixth place, before gradually improving as the leaders stretched the pace three from the finish down the home straight. He got a slap on the neck after jumping three out then he jumped two out too big, which earned him another slap on the neck and a crack of the whip, all the time giving the impression that he just needed that bit more time to organise himself and start rolling more powerfully. Held together by his jockey, that gathering momentum moved him into joint leader going over the last and although given a faint tap of the whip on the run-in it was his ability and power that were finally taking him three lengths clear of his rivals, offering more as the finishing line drew closer. This was quite impressive given the conditions.

His next assignment was to be in a Grade One, with stamina over two miles seemingly preferred. His stablemate, Royal Boy, had been selected to be the 20f horse of the two but with unpleasantly deep conditions at Warwick for his intended race a drop in distance to this race was advanced once it had been rearranged. The two would fight out a sustained, duelling finish not unlike that between My Tent Or Yours and The New One at Kempton. With this performance, Josses Hill confirmed several things: he has galloping power to hold a position in a top race but that position may not be as close as tracking but at best close up; he does not shed any notable energy as he does not pull and is not keen; he has a professional mentality; and his optimal energy distribution range is quite central as he does not have blistering pace but nor has he abundant stamina. As they went over two out Royal Boy and Josses Hill were as one. On the approach to the last McCoy on Royal Boy angled his whip out and gave his mount a couple of cracks whereas Geraghty on Josses Hill was content to hold his horse together, encouraged only by a brief shake of the reins. They both appeared to have plenty of energy left as they cleared the last hurdle comfortably. As indicated by the motion of their jockeys, Royal Boy had been the first to begin the process of transferring his energy behind the bridle and lost only a stride in so doing. Josses Hill touched down over the last hurdle first, just, and marginally nosed in front as his jockey went for the whip: he did not falter or flinch and galloped straight and true, but Royal Boy's power was now behind the bridle to a greater extent and with that he got back to his rival and went beyond him.

Josses Hill is a physically strong, impressive galloper - in many ways he is the kind of Supreme Novices horse not normally associated with his trainer. Depending on how the race unfolds, he may lose his position momentarily to a raw injection of pace but a key tactical pace change-up of that nature is unlikely to affect him greatly and if given the time he will start rolling towards the line with ominous intent. If he can hold his position, or if there is a pace burn-up on the front end, he should be well situated to take full advantage, although his bigger jumps over his hurdles will expend precious energy if they occur. He is talented but a little raw.

Irving is learning. At Taunton on debut (17f, Good) he was young and wild and free, a sure sign of mental inexperience. Following a long conversation with his jockey he did eventually relent and went through the remaining race transitions smoothly and effortlessly. At Ascot next time (16f, GS) he appeared to have been learning well as in the early stages of the race he was almost sleepy in comparison, despite a chronically slow gallop where he could have been forgiven for being quite upset with it all. As it was he pinged a hurdle near halfway and wanted to take off, quickly accepting his jockey's instructions not to do so and, when the race turned into a brief dash around the final bend, he took the race into his care as soon as two out and extended away.

Irving returned to Ascot (16f, Soft) for the Grade Two Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle. Here the pace was more normal, at least in terms of a six-runner Graded race, and was dictated by Splash of Ginge all the way to two from home albeit with his jockey knowing that he would be swamped by speedier types - his own horse needing a much more proactive end-to-end gallop. Irving settled professionally. This is important to note, from the head-swinging inexperienced appearance at Taunton to a brief show of impatience at Ascot to Ascot again and immediately settling into a racing rhythm. It may be that the really soft ground dulled his desire to expend himself but mentally the penny had dropped. He was fifth of the six runners most of the way and running comfortably when a faller three out and some movement on his outside left him last of the five runners having not lost any ground - three lengths covered first to last and rounding the final bend.

Where Do I Go Now? (Back, middle): Irving's even energy distribution through the race allowed him to execute his race transitions easily at Ascot

As the runners fanned out into the straight, Nick Schofield was content to let his horse take him over the second last still at the rear. As the smooth travelling Prince Siegfried edged in front of Irving and towards the centre, Irving was asked to switch to the outside and immediately begin racing, responding quickly to make up the length deficit and edge in front of his rival approaching the last where he was in front as Prince Siegfried fell. It was an example of a fairly rapid burst of energy from within the comfort zone of his bridle ratio - or that much looser term, speed. Ridden and pushed out he completed his race well.

Although it can be suggested that his first three wins of the season were moderate affairs and he has simply done what has been asked of him, in so doing he appeared to eradicate any analytical doubts that may have come his way. He has a distinctive On/Behind bridle ratio that relies on the former winning him the race which can be contrasted to the pair of Josses Hill and Vautour, who are more evenly paced gallopers. The smaller the field, the better the ground, the more sedate the pace - so then would Irving become an even more menacing force, providing he continued the mental progression witnessed in his first three starts here.

In the Dovecote he gave notice of that further progression. He won with authority and not a moments worry. That said, this race in many ways echoed the previous three: moderate opponents, small fields and running right-handed. Potential concerns emerged too; many would refer to the victory as a "really smooth display" as he approached the winning line, but standing back a little it was fluency that was lacking somewhat. He again settled instantly so it would be a surprise were he to show any keenness at Cheltenham but his early jumps were less than smooth, he was staccato at the first, second and fourth, having glided over the third. Here we can acknowledge the presence of usually insignificant micro-analysis but there is a wider point. Irving shattered the top of the second last hurdle with force and, without a bother, carried on regardless. But this allied to his earlier less-than-fluent jumps creates the image of a horse that is under no pressure and well within his comfort zone at all times but yet cannot quite seem to command his hurdles in his own mind, something that could cost him precious time and rhythm should there be an opponent primed to make him pay for any indiscretions. The scenarios that see him win are simple to imagine, however.

Angled: At the last hurdle, under no pressure, Irving's body is angling downwards, conveying a slight lack of technical command

VAUTOUR offers the potential for a rare Festival agreement: open expectation with racecourse performance. He debuted in a thirty-runner maiden hurdle at Navan in early December and won easily but his next race offered a sterner test, not least because in the interim period between the two races it had become clear that he had earned the "most exciting" tag from his powerful trainer and owner. That kind of hierarchical elevation occurs at all stables of course and at any one time it is only significant when expectation is confirmed by performance and Festival target race suitability. Annie Power, for example, has not confirmed the latter during her season.

In the Grade Two Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle Vautour provided a performance replete with analytical strength yet not uncommonly the general reaction was one of mild disappointment. This is understandable: it is easier (whether fruitfully or not) to invest in or align oneself behind a horse that has won cosily, visually impressively, or by half the track and so on. But as always defeats and races where things are difficult often reveal far more and this was a case in point, Vautour being sent off at one to four, only to be eyeballed on the run-in and have to race with power to claim the win. The race cannot be understood without reference to the individual physicality and stage of training of each horse. The runner-up, Western Boy, had already run three times that season: twice in Bumpers and in a seventeen runner soft ground maiden hurdle, so he had six miles of racing in his legs, allied to the training and conditioning involved therein. As with the same trainer's Morning Assembly, for Western Boy "it is not all about this year" with the trainer noting that "he is a light-framed horse" and "fingers crossed he stays sound", a mood that hints at an underlying fragile physicality. But that he is thought very well of is not in doubt and in the race he tracked Vautour effectively, jumping the last slightly better than his rival and finding a brief surge of energy to get alongside before being outmuscled / outpowered.

Physically, VAUTOUR was described as being "as big as a float" by his trainer. He is considered to be in the chasing mould and he has clear muscular power in the forward aspect of his body. He had raced only once in the season to this point and his stage of training and progression was much different to that of Western Boy. His trainer would be slowly building him up for the Deloitte Novices Hurdle or another prestigious trial race after this contest, whereas Western Boy would be being let down after this event and "minded" to the Festival, should he run well enough, which he certainly did. Vautour had more physical progression, race conditioning and strengthening to come after this race and - although not necessarily related - his energy distribution and race transitions indicated as much. He was keen early and racing too freely, shedding energy. He was also positioned in around third of the six runners on the inside rail. Whilst his size means he is unlikely to be intimidated by a big field, here it meant that his jockey had to try and angle his inexperienced horse off the rail to the outside of the leading horse. His jockey had already turned his horse's head once to prevent him from galloping too closely onto the heels of the front-runner and he managed to angle his horse out on the approach to the final bend. His stage of physical progression, the energy-shedding keenness early on, the moderate gallop - all this meant that off the final bend Vautour had to start transferring energy behind the bridle quite quickly, encouraged to do so by his jockey, and probably explains why he fiddled the last hurdle as he was only just beginning to race with the power he had transferred at that stage. His rival seized his chance but once rolling away from the hurdle again Vautour secured the race quite easily.

Petrol: Vautour's advantage is closed down after the last hurdle but he still had the fuel to pull away comfortably before the line

For his next race Vautour would need to be much fitter (more race conditioned) and race with more control throughout the contest. The Deloitte (18f Soft/Hvy) was an exhibition of those aspects. Conscious of his horse's bridle ratio, Ruby Walsh assumed control of the race at the start and made his own gallop. His horse settled and jumped professionally and accurately bar one that he fiddled slightly, most likely because his jockey had just asked him to inject some pace before slowing again. The race transitions became smooth, energy distribution optimal, and when racing proper after the final bend he was still well within his comfort zone, pinging the last and only having to be pushed out to maintain his clear advantage. It was a very professional Grade One performance. It was of course reminiscent of the ride given to Champagne Fever at Cheltenham last season and the analytical point is the same: energy distribution. Even if Vautour is the best horse in the race his chance would be seriously compromised by shedding energy early on in the way that he did at Punchestown. In that scenario in March it would be more difficult to conserve enough energy for the latter stages and hand a potential advantage to those behind him, who would subsequently be able to close him down more easily with the pace change-up potential of their bridle ratios. Whereas - leading is not essential - if Vautour controls his energy distribution and effects the smoothness of race transitions he did at Leopardstown it puts additional pressure on those horses that are using up the majority of their energy in the "On" aspect of their bridle ratio, because what will be needed to down Vautour in this scenario is strong reserves of energy at the end of the race, the very thing that failed My Tent Or Yours last season, despite his actual effort being the maximum.