Analysis of Cheltenham Arkle and Queen Mother Champion Chase 2013 markets....
Probably a few more pictures of top-class furry beasts...
Thursday 28 June 2012
Sunday 24 June 2012
Technical Supremacy: Spain Continue to Stun Europe
Spain's relentless supremacy was not the only thing to emerge from the 2010 World Cup. A fairly widespread emotional attachment towards Germany grew from their dynamic displays against inferior rivals: that attachment has persisted into the Euro Championships from the outset and, correspondingly, one can witness a growth in annoyance towards, and disassociation from, La Furia Roja. This has been starkly apparent in England but reports suggest some 'frustration' from within the Iberian peninsula too: Spain are stunning everyone but in different ways.
In short, what I found fascinating was this: At the start of play (in the main) Spain were 3/1, and Germany were 3/1. Whilst widespread acclaim heralded Spain as 'the team to beat', a plethora of betting sites and analysis promoted Germany as the likeliest winners. Interestingly, after Germany eventually overcame a poor Greek side in their quarter final, Die Mannschaft contracted to around 15/8 with Spain - yet to face a distinctly unimpressive French side - drifting to 11/4. What is bizarre is that Spain beat Germany very easily in the World Cup. Has anything really changed? If not, what was it, precisely, that allowed backers of Spain to receive an inflated price of reward for so long?
The rationale for siding with Germany over Spain was wafer-thin. It was, in my opinion, nothing more than a hopeful collection of thoughts based around Germany's style of play in the World Cup (expansive, attacking) and the belief (or, again, hope) that Spain just wouldn't be as good without Puyol and Villa. To clarify, there is absolutely nothing wrong with siding with Germany for this tournament: they are a superb World Class team with a highly advanced pattern of play. Indeed, their continued growth since the World Cup concluded stopped me from wading in heavily on the Spanish in the outright market, #respect, evidenced by preferring a Spain/Germany Finalists bet.
Closer inspection, however, reveals a case of hype and expectation built over what actually played out at the World Cup. With near enough the exact same team as now, Germany lost 1-0 to Serbia in the Group stages, but still qualified top. They then thrashed an average England team before dismantling an Argentine side in disarray: as was well-noted at the time, Argentina were playing something akin to basketball, but without any real way of keeping the ball for themselves. It is, without doubt, still extremely impressive to construct and execute 8 goals in 2 games in the knock-out phases of a World Cup. The Germans were quickly heralded as the team of the tournament and as posing a massive threat to Spain in the semi-final. Similar to now, indeed. Up to the very top echelon their progress stuttered as, dominated, they were restricted to 4 attempts on target (and just one off-target) and out-possessed 61%-39%. The structure of the game had changed; the demands were now very different. They created 2 fine chances but couldn't take them; Spain should have had three before Puyol - at fault for one of Germany's best openings - powered in his header.
What is key is that despite nothing really changing, the early acclaim for the Germans in Euro 2012 grew apace once again. This is odd. A 1-0 defeat of Portugal was a fair start; they then hung on to their 2-1 lead against The Dutch having been 2-0 ahead and coasting; and were level with Denmark for the majority of their match before notching a winner late on. Both those latter opponents failed to qualify. It took nearly 40 minutes to break the Greek deadlock., where again they succumbed defensively to a 1-1 position. None of the above matches up with the general perception of Germany as the likeliest winners, in odds or opinion preference. All the more intriguing is that Spain - Euro and World champions - have been criticised at every turn bar beating Ireland 4-0 in stunning fashion. Spain top near enough every key Opta stat in the tournament but, as someone tweeted me, "Spain aren't impressive so you'd have to fancy the Germans". It's a mindset I don't understand. It's more than likely a very simple case of a general preference for plenty of goals, excitement, open attacking (creating excitement at both ends), quick counters and so on whereas Spain's brilliance lies in their collective ethic, technical and tactical excellence and hunger to pass, control and win competitions.
Something that received no attention was Xavi setting his pass record against Ireland. It was a record that was highlighted but met largely without response. It is a fantastic thing to want to pass that much, and then to be able to, technically and physically for Xavi himself but also among teammates capable of reciprocating his mindset. In England, four or five "meaningless" short passes are often seen as a waste of time when the ball could be being sent forward or wide, and ten or eleven such passes is usually a case of showboating or boring. For Spain's players, it's simply their job. Retaining possession is an exceptionally hard thing to do, Spain would rather have the ball and yet when they do give up possession they are often hunting fast and in packs to win it back: physically exceptional. On the odd occasion when Spain broke on the counter against France they still didn't look to hurtle forward: this in essence is perhaps why some football fans are frustrated with them as a team. They broke, passed but then checked back. It allows several things to happen: the defense to recover their positions and re-organize without the threat of a direct pass; the midfield to track back and recover their zone; and the Spanish players themselves to establish their positions ready for the next phase like any other. Therefore there is usually no fast, unpredictable, 'exciting' breakaway element to Spain's play, the very kind of breakaway play that enthralled the world when Germany combined and applied those very elements to such effect against tactically inferior and disorganised teams.
I think Spain are fascinating, brilliant and committed in equal measure. It's up to Germany to prove they have progressed considerably since the World Cup; if not 'striker-less' Spain will collect their third major title in four years.
In short, what I found fascinating was this: At the start of play (in the main) Spain were 3/1, and Germany were 3/1. Whilst widespread acclaim heralded Spain as 'the team to beat', a plethora of betting sites and analysis promoted Germany as the likeliest winners. Interestingly, after Germany eventually overcame a poor Greek side in their quarter final, Die Mannschaft contracted to around 15/8 with Spain - yet to face a distinctly unimpressive French side - drifting to 11/4. What is bizarre is that Spain beat Germany very easily in the World Cup. Has anything really changed? If not, what was it, precisely, that allowed backers of Spain to receive an inflated price of reward for so long?
The rationale for siding with Germany over Spain was wafer-thin. It was, in my opinion, nothing more than a hopeful collection of thoughts based around Germany's style of play in the World Cup (expansive, attacking) and the belief (or, again, hope) that Spain just wouldn't be as good without Puyol and Villa. To clarify, there is absolutely nothing wrong with siding with Germany for this tournament: they are a superb World Class team with a highly advanced pattern of play. Indeed, their continued growth since the World Cup concluded stopped me from wading in heavily on the Spanish in the outright market, #respect, evidenced by preferring a Spain/Germany Finalists bet.
Closer inspection, however, reveals a case of hype and expectation built over what actually played out at the World Cup. With near enough the exact same team as now, Germany lost 1-0 to Serbia in the Group stages, but still qualified top. They then thrashed an average England team before dismantling an Argentine side in disarray: as was well-noted at the time, Argentina were playing something akin to basketball, but without any real way of keeping the ball for themselves. It is, without doubt, still extremely impressive to construct and execute 8 goals in 2 games in the knock-out phases of a World Cup. The Germans were quickly heralded as the team of the tournament and as posing a massive threat to Spain in the semi-final. Similar to now, indeed. Up to the very top echelon their progress stuttered as, dominated, they were restricted to 4 attempts on target (and just one off-target) and out-possessed 61%-39%. The structure of the game had changed; the demands were now very different. They created 2 fine chances but couldn't take them; Spain should have had three before Puyol - at fault for one of Germany's best openings - powered in his header.
What is key is that despite nothing really changing, the early acclaim for the Germans in Euro 2012 grew apace once again. This is odd. A 1-0 defeat of Portugal was a fair start; they then hung on to their 2-1 lead against The Dutch having been 2-0 ahead and coasting; and were level with Denmark for the majority of their match before notching a winner late on. Both those latter opponents failed to qualify. It took nearly 40 minutes to break the Greek deadlock., where again they succumbed defensively to a 1-1 position. None of the above matches up with the general perception of Germany as the likeliest winners, in odds or opinion preference. All the more intriguing is that Spain - Euro and World champions - have been criticised at every turn bar beating Ireland 4-0 in stunning fashion. Spain top near enough every key Opta stat in the tournament but, as someone tweeted me, "Spain aren't impressive so you'd have to fancy the Germans". It's a mindset I don't understand. It's more than likely a very simple case of a general preference for plenty of goals, excitement, open attacking (creating excitement at both ends), quick counters and so on whereas Spain's brilliance lies in their collective ethic, technical and tactical excellence and hunger to pass, control and win competitions.
Something that received no attention was Xavi setting his pass record against Ireland. It was a record that was highlighted but met largely without response. It is a fantastic thing to want to pass that much, and then to be able to, technically and physically for Xavi himself but also among teammates capable of reciprocating his mindset. In England, four or five "meaningless" short passes are often seen as a waste of time when the ball could be being sent forward or wide, and ten or eleven such passes is usually a case of showboating or boring. For Spain's players, it's simply their job. Retaining possession is an exceptionally hard thing to do, Spain would rather have the ball and yet when they do give up possession they are often hunting fast and in packs to win it back: physically exceptional. On the odd occasion when Spain broke on the counter against France they still didn't look to hurtle forward: this in essence is perhaps why some football fans are frustrated with them as a team. They broke, passed but then checked back. It allows several things to happen: the defense to recover their positions and re-organize without the threat of a direct pass; the midfield to track back and recover their zone; and the Spanish players themselves to establish their positions ready for the next phase like any other. Therefore there is usually no fast, unpredictable, 'exciting' breakaway element to Spain's play, the very kind of breakaway play that enthralled the world when Germany combined and applied those very elements to such effect against tactically inferior and disorganised teams.
I think Spain are fascinating, brilliant and committed in equal measure. It's up to Germany to prove they have progressed considerably since the World Cup; if not 'striker-less' Spain will collect their third major title in four years.
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