World Cup 2014 - SPAIN - Preliminary

(Subject to updates and revisions)

Spain 

2008 European Championships: WINNERS

2010 World Cup: WINNERS

2012 European Championships: WINNERS

During Spain's progress to the Euro 2012 Final - Observation;

Analysis - Spain's majestic brilliance floors their critics; hype and skewed perspectives widespread.

A decent summation and one which made Spain's Olympic results (no goals and no win in three matches) extraordinary. Interesting nonetheless is the reaction of 'senior' players Jordi Alba and Juan Mata who were clearly hurt by their team's inability to succeed and went on to have outstanding seasons for their clubs, Barcelona and Chelsea respectively. (Juan Mata would score or assist 49 goals from 64 Chelsea appearances in their 2012-13 season, further underlining the significance of his substitute role in the Spanish squad to date.)

Germany 0 - 1 Spain

Euro 2008

Holland 0 - 1 Spain

World Cup Final 2010

Spain 4 - 0 Italy

Euro 2012

1-0: Fabregas to Silva

2-0: Xavi to Alba

3-0: Xavi to Torres

4-0: Torres to Mata

Spain (v Italy 4-0) (stated ages are for Brazil in 2014; 30+ only)
01 Casillas (2014)
03 Pique (2014)
15 Ramos (2014
17 Arbeloa (2014) 31
18 Alba (2014)
06 Iniesta (2014) 30
08 Xavi (2014) 34
10 Fabregas (2014)
14 Alonso (2014) 32
16 Busquets (2014)
21 Silva (2014)

Substitutes

12 Valdes - Barcelona
23 Reina - Napoli
02 Albiol - Real Madrid
04 Martinez - Bayern Munich
05 Juanfran - Athletico Madrid
20 Cazorla - Arsenal
22 Navas - Manchester City
07 Pedrito - Barcelona
09 Torres - Chelsea
11 Negredo - Manchester City
13 Mata - Chelsea
19 Llorente - Juventus

11 - Del Bosque could if he wished field the exact same team in Brazil. Continuity.

Additional players for Brazil 2014
Cristian Tello - Barcelona (Winger/attacker)

Nacho Monreal - Arsenal (Fullback)
Cesar Azpilicueta - Chelsea (Fullback)

Isco - Malaga (Midfield)

Alvaro Dominguez - Borussia Monchengladbach (Central defender)

Alvaro Morata - Real Madrid (Striker)

GENERAL
The physicality and mentality of the Spanish National team has been phenomenal; there is no sign of this wavering. Much has been made of Spain's extraordinary commitment to ball retention and the art of passing but those very principles are dependent on the physical and mental attributes to achieve them to the devastating extent they did against Italy in their latest performance in a major tournament. As I pointed to elsewhere Spain's destruction of Ireland en route to that final was simply breathtaking and of a kind unparalleled in recent times; that they went on to do the same to a much heralded Italian team in the Final was no surprise. That performance justifiably burst the dam of praise and superlatives and given the trickery of the human mind it is worth recalling those accolades as a means of ascertaining just how far ahead of their European rivals Spain actually are, having also outplayed Holland in South Africa at the previous World Cup. 

The basic Opta Stats from Euro 2012 tell a simple story of dominance in every aspect. Spain's approach is often crudely reduced to two competing tendencies, as if the brilliance of their forward play is 'actually' subsumed by their insatiable apetite to keep the ball out of their own net: even Arsene Wenger became a little riled by it. As many have correctly pointed out, the Spanish players know exactly what they are doing and why they are doing it and their belief in that philosophy has produced the kind of performances that mean no opponent has scored a goal against them at any time in the knockout phases of the last three major tournaments, a fact that loses none of its incredibility with repetition (Zinedine Zidane was the last player to do so, in 2006). The mental desire and hunger that such a process underscores is of a kind that no other nation will produce in a very long time. And really the term process is the key to understanding Spain's mental and physical hunger in their quest for total superiority at all times. La Roja have invested everything into the concept of flow and process since before their tidal wave of domination began in 2008: a vision was implemented and trained for religiously not just to win a tournament or improve the competitiveness of their football clubs. As Cesc Febregas pinpointed: "People who think we are boring don't understand the game". Another more comparative way of looking at that vision is to point out that the current World Cup 2014 favourites and hosts Brazil have been defined by their manager Luis Felipe Scolari as lacking in the very philosophical precision that has put Spain out of reach of their opponents for so long: "What is missing is a full definition of how to play" he said recently. In that sense, they are only six or seven years behind Spain. 

Analytically what is important is the level of distortion that can occur when making predictions relating to tournament outcomes. Football can be a volatile sport with shocks, surprises and unknowable drama but nonetheless all that does not happen without some kind of order: a team's development through a tournament or disintegration from it almost always has a certain kind of structure defined by the relationship between the usual core aspects: player quality, manager quality, tactical proficiency and balance, team togetherness, team hunger, individual brilliance, team physicality, depth of squad and so on. 

In preliminary terms a generally skewed perspective is still strongly evident if looking at the odds of reward from the bookmaking industry as an example. Spain are generally third favourites, despite being one of the most gifted sides ever. They are only marginally positioned as being ahead of Germany despite the evidence of the 2012 European Championships demonstrating that the gap between them is actually quite large. The clear inference is that Spain are unlikely to be as effective in 2014 as they were in 2010 regardless of the evidence either side of South Africa. 

Seven current players (Puyol not included) played in the 3-1 defeat to France in the 2006 World Cup. That seven to eight year period reveals the full extent of the philosophical and scientific training programme implemented by the Real Federación Española de Fútbol - there is a team of individuals but no single individual defines the team. The waves of players Spain produced (and continue to produce) were of a particular kind, of course, but whatever their natural ability they were channeled and directed into an unwavering and uncompromising style of play born from a realisation that "they weren't physical and tough enough to outmuscle opponents, so instead wanted to concentrate on monopolising the ball." The full ethos and impact of tiki-taka can be digested in detail elsewhere: here we are concerned with its continued efficacy at the World Cup Finals in Brazil 2014. Team assessments can be based on the structural components outlined higher up, in short they comprise:

1. Team Selection: consistency and depth
2. Philosophical and Managerial: tactical strengths and weaknesses
3. Playing Evidence: improvements and alterations in performance since South Africa (2010)

The first and third components are largely self-evident and have been addressed already; this leaves us with the key area of how Spain play, how they are misunderstood in betting terms and how a correct understanding may identify potential problem areas.

Tiki-Taka; Positional Concentration, Fatigue and Error; 

Tournament Structure and Managerial Stability.

Leaving aside the erroneous title of the video, this goal in particular captures the almost tortuous mental pressure that is exerted on teams by Spain. In terms of technique and physicality there is nothing that is impressive about either the phase of play overall or the strike at goal. Given that  this phase of play occurs in the first ten minutes of the match their opponents are clearly not fatigued in any way but the desire to pass, move and retain possession exhausts their opponents within the possession phase itself, resulting in a strike at goal from close range which is successful. For 25 passes Spain work the ball across the pitch, slightly forward and slightly back until an isolated but determined press on Jordi Alba leads to Spain retreating all the way back to their goalkeeper who recycles the ball as the 26th pass. In that first wave the Scottish players are tactically precise and mentally alert: they press, drop-off and follow the movement of their opponents without allowing space behind their back-line. They press zones once the ball is moved toward it retaining all key positions behind the ball in adjacent areas of the pitch and they follow runners early in their movement, often preventing a more penetrating pass. By around the 35th pass Spain are still only on the halfway line but what has gone before now starts to exert an extraordinary mental pressure on their opponents who, having not touched the ball for around a minute and a half, begin to lose their mental alertness and discipline. 

Passes 36 and 37 (roughly) are unremarkable but they lead directly to the goal because the Scotland players are mentally fatigued from the preceding passage of play in its entirety. The continual repositioning  and running without the ball owing to the hypnotic and constant movement of the ball by Spain induces tactical defensive errors which then allow the space for Spain to penetrate with sudden speed and intensity. The simple exchange between Xavi and Silva causes three of the Scottish players to crumple around one another. As they are now fatigued all three players allow Silva to make off untracked despite in the first instance all three being close enough to him to reach out and touch him. Earlier within the same phase a player would have run with Silva, checking him. The additional space then allows Xavi to play a longer, deeper pass to the wing which turns Jordi Alba's marker - the player who had initially pressed Alba successfully has now had his body position turned to face his own goal by Xavi's pass. As such he is no longer in the right position nor mentally alert enough to respond to the extended underlapping run made by Alba, which allows the cross to find Silva who long ago left the three opposing players that switched off to find space and score. Part of Alba's run is made by the fact that his marker also has in his mind that the ball will be recycled infield yet again, much like it was five or six times previously within the same move (when Scotland's positioning and alertness was much sharper). When he realises Spain have gone for the kill it is too late. Had his starting position been better he would have faced Alba's run and blocked it but he was ball-watching the exchange between Xavi and Silva, in effect meaning four opposing players switched off mentally during a simple passing sequence. Spain retained possession until deciding they could score. A similar scenario is showcased below, this time Fabregas denotes the decisive zone with Silva again the beneficiary:

Defensive positional concentration, fatigue and error is not something that is often mentioned when talking of Spain's opponents but it is often the most decisive effect of Spain's style. The other is more obvious: physical pressure. In the latter parts of games, particularly those in which the scoreline is still even or close to it, Spain's retention of possession forces tiring opponents to retreat deeper. As opponents without the ball for the majority of the match the mental and physical willingness to press higher up the pitch can fade away in a lot of teams: it is easier in theory to sit deeper and press shorter distances to advancing players or passes, with a deep line also ensuring no space in behind for penetrating passes (Italy in particular paid a heavy price for being too open/fatigued in their Final encounter). This is the problem that Spain encounter most often therefore. Their control and dominance of the ball often entails prolonged spells where openings do not necessarily emerge and desirable shots on goal are not possible owing to resolute defensive work from their opponents and/or incomplete passing sequences by Spain themselves. However, in pinning their opponents deeper when in possession in later stages of matches Spain are effectively nullifying the attacking threat of their opponents: even if opponents win the ball back they are a) often more fatigued than normal due to less ball possession and more chasing and repositioning work; b) further from Spain's goal due to retreating deeper towards their own leaving it much more difficult to c) counter-attack quickly from such a deep position, not least because under normal circumstances Spain's own defensive pressure on the ball is extremely quick and effective. This is one reason why teams have found it incredibly difficult to score against Spain in key matches where Spain's intensity is high, because opponents cannot easily retrieve the ball nor facilitate periods of transitional play against them. The idea of using speed against Spain once they have lost possession is fine in theory but it leads to longer, often inaccurate passes which when unsuccessful simply returns the ball to Spain allowing them to begin their sustained possession build-up once again. 

Tournament structure compounds the effects of both mental and physical fatigue. As the number of games increase so does the likelihood of increased tiredness on a general level. By contrast at the start of a tournament levels of physical sharpness and mental alertness are high, as is the attention on any tactical plans instilled in the players in an attempt to make the best possible start. What in 2010 and 2012 appeared to be 'sluggish' starts by Spain were actually fairly normal representations of their ability. Against Switzerland in their World Cup opener they lost 1-0 having had 67% possession and 22 attempts on goal to their opponents 6, forcing 12 corners to the Swiss's 3. Against Italy at the Euros they drew 1-1 with Spain enjoying two thirds of the possession and 14 attempts on goal to Italy's 9, with Spain forcing five more corners than the team they would later crush in the final. In reality, at the start of tournaments, Spain's approach has an air of vulnerability: they are not yet fully tuned but their opponents are straining to match their every move and have the physical and mental freshness to attempt to do so. Spain still dominated their opening matches but their opponents were capable of causing them sufficient problems to score a goal, in the case of Switzerland decisively so. 

As the tournament wears on however that freshness is eroded. Whilst that simple law of nature does not automatically translate into goals for Spain it does begin to tilt the balance of matches more heavily in their favour: as players and team structures become just a fraction jaded, Spain's retention of possession and their ability to rest with the ball during matches allows them to hone their precision and intensity whilst inflicting further fatigue on their opponents. Nonetheless matches such as the 0-0 with Portugal in the Semi-Final of the latest European Championships attest to the danger inherent in not scoring more freely: as discussed lower down Spain are in fact susceptible to a late moment of genius or error and to the volatile possibilities that shadow penalty shoot-outs. Three consecutive tournament victories suggests that as yet that susceptibility is not decisive.

Having previously stated that he would end his reign as manager of La Roja after Brazil, Vincente Del Bosque has more recently clouded the issue by suggesting discussions on his future could wait until after his team's defence of their World Cup title. The issue will no doubt be resolved more fully either way prior to the tournament commencing in Brazil. Before then Del Bosque will oversee Spain's Confederations Cup campaign in Brazil, ensuring continued managerial stability to the side.

Beating Spain

There is no particular secret or model to out-pointing one of the best footballing sides in history but in 2010 Switzerland most likely came closest to outlining it in a basic way. In that opening match the Swiss continually banked Spain inland, cutting off the widest, deeper zones and then committing to running hard along horizontal lines with defensive central zoning allied to a direct and central counter attack. None of that is original and it happens quite a lot in games featuring Spain. The goal scored by the Swiss was fairly erratic in conception and finish but they also hit the post from a similarly penetrative counter through the central zones, giving Spain little time to regroup. As pointed to above regarding opening matches, Switzerland were physically and mentally at their most alert, their most dynamic. When that physicality, alertness and dynamism fades then the residual class of a team is often laid bare: Switzerland failed to qualify or score a goal from their next two games, losing 1-0 to Chile and drawing 0-0 with Honduras.

Rising in class, Italy decided on a similar idea by deploying a 3-5-2 formation in their opening match of Euro 2012. It is fair to say that the individual speed of Spain's wide wing play may not be the biggest concern of opposing teams but having the intent to prevent them from entering those spaces easily has in the past proved crucial. Opposing teams do no want to see players such as Andres Iniesta, David Silva, Pedro and Juan Mata in those zones as when they are it can be difficult to stop them creating goalscoring chances, so the desire to bank them inland is important. The Final showed the difference in residual class between these teams so again it can be seen how fresher, sharper minds and bodies are able to create more problems for Spain early on in tournaments (most notably after La Roja finally banished their tournament ghost, where their own hunger to do so saw them win all three group games at Euro 2008, hammering Russia in the first of them but also conceding one goal in every game). With their formation and understanding of it Italy were able to compress Spain between the lines and press them higher, dominating the wider zones and crowding the central zones with pressure. They were helped on this occasion by Spain's lack of desire to run hard and fast into deeper zones in the first half, something which they altered in the second period. Iniesta perhaps should have scored and Fabregas did. 

The problem analytically regards the later stages of tournaments. As Spain haven't conceded a goal in those phases in three tournaments spanning four years the threats probably lie outside of Europe. In 2010 Spain played against a number of South American teams but none of them were particularly strong: Honduras, Chile and Paraguay. However La Roja have yet to be tested by an array of world class forwards operating in a tactically efficient team that is capable of retaining possession for sustained periods. Cristiano Ronaldo has been effectively nullified in previous meetings with Portugal and a struggling Uruguay were swept aside in a February friendly featuring Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani. Argentina on the other hand increasingly have the potential for a highly effective defensive midfield barrier (Mascherano & Gago/Banega) together with a fluid, elite level attacking threat that can combine effectively during established patterns of play; whilst in Lionel Messi they also have the potential for individual flashes of brilliance in front of goal (assuming he is supported by a realistic tactical structure, not forthcoming under Maradona). Pastore, Lavezzi, Di Maria, Higuain, Aguero, Tevez: players that offer attacking depth and rotation. Argentina have suffered just the one surprise defeat in qualifying (away at Venezuela) and were recently held to a draw away at Bolivia: as a team they are not near Spain's level - defensively they are nowhere near as strong - but there won't be a better team at the World Cup than La Roja; to conquer them will require elite class firepower and the tactical, mental and physical ability to unleash it and in that respect Argentina offer the clearest threat to Spain, more detail on which will come on Argentina's page.

2013 Neptune Novices Hurdle: Review

A moderate renewal won emphatically by The New One, beating Rule The World 4L (21f G/S).

The story of the race analytically was The Hurdler versus The Two Chasers. When the result favours the hurdler in a hurdles race such a story can seem a touch glib but one need only go back to the battle between First Lieutenant and Rock On Ruby to find a scenario where the chaser came out of the contest as the victor. What was different here, however, was the disproportionate 'hype' hoisted onto the broad staying shoulders of Pont Alexandre in the months leading up to the race and, corresponding to that disproportionality, the quiet and effortless confidence loitering behind The New One. Crucially, and in many ways regardless of all that, The New One had positive racecourse evidence behind him.

Rule The World occupied the middle ground somewhat. He had oozed elite class potential in following a well known path towards the festival, one navigated by Venalmar (second) and First Lieutenant (won) from the same stable. His only defeat came by incurring a run at three miles against a talented horse, which hinted at his staying chase pedigree. His hurdling technique was nicely proficient through the season however (apart from the second hurdle here) and in the Neptune he cut a relaxed, untroubled figure, amenable to running in a range of positions through the race: prominent at the start; back to sixth after the slight mistake; asleep in seventh later on; easy forward movement into midfield; and headway to press the lead running downhill towards the bend. In each case he was unflustered and his distribution of energy smooth. What he could do little about was the less than frenetic pace and the presence of a top class rival: he lost some momentum as he switched behind the bridle rounding the bend but from there he displayed the running power to endorse his classy movement through the race. He had no answer to the winner's surge but confirmed himself a top class prospect. He was unfortunately injured during his next race.

Pont Alexandre was beaten nearly nine lengths by the winner, staying on at one pace from some way out; his race was run after the bend. He shared the pace-lead with Ubak for most of an uncomplicated race. It was noticeable that his jockey was asking him to gallop a little throughout the downhill phase, rather than the horse taking his jockey through the descent: over the second last he had gathered his own momentum and was already set to race which saw him move into a clear lead around the bend. It was not a decisive move though; his core energy was speent and he could only keep galloping stoutly with what he had left, fading into third place. His move into the lead showed a certain amount of quality that with more experience and physical maturation may well yield a certain level of reward. Analytically the interesting aspect is again the source of the 'hype' he generated, the lack of dissection of that information and the widespread lack of discussion of his physicality. His price, truly irrelevant, nonetheless served to confirm the illusion. Third place did seem most likely as endorsed here, a trade-off between his promise and the higher appeal and suitability of his main rivals.

The Chosen One. As with Boston Bob from the same stable it is often 'enough' for the most powerful Irish stable to wax lyrical about one (unproven) horse in particular for 'the market' - that abstract creation - to distort itself in ever more complicated ways. Perhaps more simply it can be said that 'popular opinion' exceeds all that is indicated by reality. The physicality of Pont Alexandre suggested the future so when his trainer stated quite clearly that he was a horse for the future the logical conclusion was, all things considered, that three miles and fences would be his optimum: here we had hurdles, 21f and goodish ground, not to mention two horses in opposition of a calibre that he had not been asked to meet hitherto. For the future, not the white hot intensity of the here and now. More crucially than any comments and words, his races had backed up that impression in any case: a long loping stride that showed class but not speed, galloping evenly through heavy ground. As it transpired, there was an elite class novice hurdler stalking him and his more proficient Irish rival.

Unlike his opponents, The New One brought everything to the big occasion. Unwavering trainer belief (for the here and now, not just the future), residual class, bumper form, top level seasonal form, hurdling acceleration, track form, preparation, suitable physicality. This race was part of his training for the Champion Hurdle; afterwards he went down narrowly to Zarkandar in the G1 Aintree Hurdle. Another notable Aintree run had come much earlier, when beating the potentially elite level My Tent Or Yours in the Bumper to advertise his own level of residual class. Over hurdles he began in October winning twice, proving physical well-being following the summer. His debut was over 19f but every race after that was at 21f and he would run at Cheltenham twice prior to his big assignment. As such stamina was assured, as was affinity for the track; what caught the eye was the way he travelled generally and in particular his performance in his trial against one of the best three mile novice hurdlers of recent times, At Fisher's Cross. It was clear just how much potential he had before the race:

"The New One has demonstrated an ability to travel strongly through his races although it should be mentioned that his hurdling is sometimes far from fluent. Whether he actually quickened or not coming down the hill last time out is quite an interesting question. He may have just been running at a higher tempo than his staying rivals who were about to dig into their stamina reserves. What may have happened was a pace differential - The New One still moving strongly at one (fast) pace running downhill at the moment his staying rivals were switching off the bridle to race behind it. If The New One had truly quickened away then he probably would have opened up a winning gap although on better ground he may actually change gears which would perhaps be decisive . The New One's run style could be akin to those horses capable of a long sustained run at a very high tempo rather than a cruise-and-quicken style. For the Neptune, staying right to the line after having the speed to be put into the race turning the bend is a crucial component and so far The New One has demonstrated this. Better ground may prove quite important to The New One. This is not because he cannot cope with soft ground - he clearly can - but because his sustained run to the line once down the hill will be much more assured on goodish ground than, as seen in his run at Cheltenham on heavy, if the ground was tiring making sustaining his gallop to the line more gruelling and punishing. A fascinating runner and a leading contender he can become the top avenger and put right his trial loss on the biggest stage of all."

Analytically, if it had not already become apparent, the fascinating aspect of The New One's win is the similarity he shares with Hurricane Fly regarding his running style and characteristics. It will therefore be interesting to discover next season if The New One has already or develops more acceleration than the historic Irish horse. Either way his suitability for both Cheltenham and a Champion Hurdle are assured. Comparatively, for example, My Tent Or Yours (who will surely have a breathing operation over the summer) travels with unnatural power through his races at the moment, affecting his stamina and finishing effort (as seen in the Supreme Novices Hurdle). In any case The New One's more natural and more even energy distribution is a big positive for his chances in the Champion Hurdle #NH14 #Strategic7.

The New One winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle 2013

2013 Ryanair Chase: Review

A moderate renewal won impressively by Cue Card, beating First Lieutenant by 9L (21f G/S).

Approaching the day of the race this contest offered a seemingly straightforward analytical task. As always there was a measure of confusion and uncertainty regarding a number of running plans but most importantly there was no such ambiguity regarding the eventual winner who appeared tailor-made for the race this season. Cue Card had hinted at having a very high level of residual class and with everything in his favour he duly displayed it. 

The Ryanair Chase is a fine contest, especially since elevated to Grade One status in 2008. A common, somewhat flimsy view, is often rolled out: that the Ryanair Chase detracts from the Queen Mother Champion Chase and Gold Cup Chase. Such a view is replete with flowing romanticism and yearning. Analytically the Ryanair Chase offers a perfect chance to decipher the best horse to not be contesting the two other races: Our Vic (2nd in King George & 2nd in this race) 4/1; Albertas Run (previously an RSA Chase winner & 2nd in King George) 14/1; Albertas Run (additional) 6/1; Riverside Theatre (2nd in King George & dual Ascot Chase winner) 7/2; Cue Card (2nd to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle Chase) 7/2. Hard to find theoretically? Perhaps Albertas Run's first victory but not the others. The first three could have been forced to run in a Gold Cup where they would have been comprehensively outstayed and Cue Card could have again been beaten by the superstar Sprinter Sacre: instead they came to this race with the perfect attributes to run out Grade One winners in their own right. 

For the purposes of analysis the race is rarely as strong as discussions through the season would indicate. This race was no exception: last year's winner Riverside Theatre had been struggling with his physicality all season, managing only one run when well beaten in the King George; Albertas Run had not managed a run at all and was duly pulled up; Menorah was pulled up after never looking happy and Ghizao lacked residual class. That left Champion Court, For Non Stop and First Lieutenant as main opponents. For Non Stop had run well first time out after which he lost his form.

Champion Court wold return the following month to edge out Menorah in an end of season Grade Two and that is more the level of a horse lacking in residual class. Champion Court is a big animal and at elite level he finds it very hard to cope with faster, more athletic rivals. He is a strong galloper who often tries very hard and these qualities saw him force the King George pace in attritional ground until tiring three form home. It is likely that the physical exertion of this effort stayed with him for some time although he may have been vulnerable in any case in a three runner affair at Kempton next time out. His willingness to try hard and battle were to the fore when he returned to the track in April but in an elite contest he will always struggle to marry basic running power with a sufficiently classy finishing effort. A step back up in trip would play to his galloping strengths more, particularly if targeted at races below the top level.

First Lieutenant was one of the most talked about horses of the season which in a sense was strange owing to the fact that when lining up for this race he had lost eight consecutive races and failed to land a blow in defeat here, his ninth. He got his Grade One win over fences when snapping that losing streak at Aintree, although it cannot go unnoticed that he edged out Menorah just like the more limited Champion Court would and Silviniaco Conti made a significant error but was in any case being given a considerate ride (widest of all) to ensure his confidence was in tact after his fall in the Gold Cup. In fact First Lieutenant has a similar running style to Champion Court but he has a different physique and more residual class than that animal. They both lack the ability to change their running pace effectively. First Lieutenant's class comes via a high level and sustained gallop that rises in intensity only briefly. As he showed when running again with great credit against the Gold Cup second and third at Punchestown, he is able to gallop at elite level over two and a half miles or further but he lacks alternate tools. Once he has run to the front or to the end of his sustainable gallop he finds it difficult to either break through the pain barrier or to engage reserve sources of energy when behind the bridle. Part of it is level of class, part of it is physical structure. His trainer was keen to run him in the Gold Cup but that berth was taken by Sir Des Champs. Over 21f First Lieutenant ran his race but simply had no answer to the quality of the winner. He remains, of course, a talented staying chaser and he has already garnered an enduring popularity but he is destined to forever be involved in tight finishes whenever he is close enough to affect the outcome of a race.

Cue Card never gave his opponents a chance and outclassed them. Rounding the final bend he had three rivals gunning him down but he had yet to be asked a serious question and quickly settled the contest, pulling further away up the hill. Earlier on he had put in the odd moderate jump but what is noticeable about Cue Card is how nothing really fazes him; he just keeps trying his best. And he does that throughout his races: he tries just as hard at the end of his races as he does in the early stages, which explains why he often wins well with his lowest winning distance is a comfortable 3.5L-4L. His residual class is very high (as suggested by his Arkle Chase run): in this race he was at the front throughout, continually pressed by Champion Court, but that pressing was well within Cue Card's comfort zone. His jockey reported after the race how he was able to continually change the pace to his liking, getting numerous breathers into his mount which no doubt helped him finish his race so strongly. Setting off on the second circuit was an example of this, he was able to move Cue Card forward easily into a clear lead to again stretch the pace, before reducing it later on.

The key race next season will again be the King George but this time connections will know a lot more about their horse or at least they will know what they did already with a greater amount of surety. That he has won a Ryanair Chase from the front bodes well for his prospects and good ground will obviously be important to him at Kempton. It will be a different test: there is, usually, little scope for the type of rhythmical pace change-ups he was allowed in the Ryanair. The King George is defined by a brutal, continual elite pace with no let-ups and with Long Run again likely to contest the race he will have to fence accurately to maintain his free-going rhythm effectively. Those questions are for later but either way it is not difficult to envisage Cue Card returning to the Ryanair to defend his crown.

Cue Card wins the Ryanair Chase easily

On Boston Bob & Physicality

The Sidebet:

This came to pass unexpectedly. I had done quite a bit of work analysing Boston Bob as he was a major contender for the RSA Chase from the start of the season. As a big race novice contender he captured the full spectrum of 'hype', performance and physical problematics. In the race itself he fell at the last when with every chance, then fell again when never threatening at Punchestown. In Twittersphere someone whose views I respect was extremely positive about his chances for next season in a big race of some kind. For my part, I doubted he would even run in England again in part due to physical problems associated with his two falls, given that he was also something of a late starter. Countering that was the view that the falls were incidental and that his form and class would see him win a top handicap or well-contested Graded race after a summer of further maturation. The bar was set at £100: Boston Bob to win any Premier Handicap or any Grade 1 or 2 race in the UK or Ireland in #NH14 (having to run in one once to validate the bet for the season). He says yes, I say no. Given the ever-present possibility of Boston contesting a fairly weak Graded race (particularly in Ireland) then it is possible the money is simply idling on the 'awaiting transfer' list. The money is spicy but not the interesting bit given the sporting nature of the bet which doesn't mean I want to give a lot of it away if I'm wrong, but the contrasting views are fascinating and mine is given below.

On Boston Bob:

A lot is made of 'following hype' in racing but it's rare that many people take the time to trace that hype to source or see fit to make it explicit and build it into any kind of meaningful analysis. Having been beaten at a short price at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival over hurdles (without looking overly classy) it was surprising to see the levels of expectation rise still further for his venture into staying novice chases. There was clearly a reason for this but the oft-cited one of 'built for chasing' and 'will come into his own when jumping a fence' did not explain why his level of residual class should rise appreciably for a change of obstacle. A simplistic Google search later and the reason for the expectation became immediately clear so it was therefore interesting and surprising in equal measure why more had not been made of the reason across various racing networks: the age-old gallop report is not exactly a newfangled information source. It is what it is. In the case of Boston Bob, it defined an abstraction. That abstraction was something totally unrelated to him as a racehorse: his price for winning at the Festival. As a racehorse his reputation was built on a gallop or two and this initially, rather than anything he had done on the track, was the reason for the expectation and 'hype': the horses he had galloped really well with were Hurricane Fly and Quevega, at the beginning of March, prior to his narrow defeat to Brindisi Breeze. Specifically, Mullins had said: "I am very happy with how they went. They all worked well and all they jumped very well, particularly Boston Bob, his jumping was immaculate, he just looks a real natural".

This regard from connections, allied eventually to winning the G1 Moriarty Chase, meant that Boston Bob could never be confidently ruled out of calculations when assessing the RSA Chase: in the end he was evaluated as a third place finisher http://thenhanalysisroom.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/2013-rsa-chase-raceday-thoughts.html but in the end first, second or third were all possible outcomes. Actually for me first place was not possible for reasons underpinning this sidebet.

On Physicality:

Top class horses get beaten for two reasons: they are physically compromised in some way (illness, injury, soundness, poor preparation owing to those) or they meet a horse as good as them or better on the day. Sometimes both occur at the same time. Physicality can be difficult to assess owing to the lack of accessible information pertaining to a particular horse's condition, or put another way what a trainer has not said, or what s/he has said that hasn't been widely reported. What have been the weight fluctuations with the horse; did the horse eat up after its last run; has the training schedule been interrupted; if so why; how serious were those reasons; are any problems continuous and/or being continually 'managed'; and so on. A lot of this type of information has to be second guessed and analysed even when pointed to by a trainer, whose primary interest and responsibility is to their owners and/or themselves. Beginning his novice chase campaign, we can say with some confidence that Boston Bob is likely to have had ongoing physical issues that were being managed from some point subsequent to his last appearance at the Festival. What defines staying novice chasers is in large measure their robustness, their ability to handle a programme of races that ebbs and flows with intensity and pressure on their body. If a horse of this kind is not sighted until well into the season therefore, it is not ready to gain the physical conditioning it requires to develop into an RSA Chase winner. Boston Bob did not reappear until December 16, by which point the eventual winner (Lord Windermere) had run twice and was being prepared for a third start. He was well on his way to attaining the physical depth of preparation that would aid him in such an unforgiving championship event. Boston Bob's return was satisfactory but seemed to illuminate the training problems he had been experiencing, something confirmed in large part by his trainer who reported him to be sore following his debut. This immediately gives rise to the need to further monitor and manage an ongoing problem. Such ongoing issues are not uncommon in racehorses but the significance of a horse's physicality is greatly magnified in the context of an elite level contest where any weakness is exposed by other rivals. It is not enough to be 'classy', therefore.

Because of his problems, Boston Bob was given time to recover and targeted at the premier RSA Chase trial in Ireland, the Dr. P. J. Moriarty run on Febraury 9. This race would feature the eventual winner. Analytically regarding the RSA Chase, Boston Bob's victory was unsatisfactory. It would have been more comforting to be able to rule him out of contention had he been defeated or found to be lacking in positive staying chase attributes. As it was, he was able to recover from losing his place as the pace went critical to surge back at his rivals and nose ahead of them on the line. He had therefore won both his starts including a Grade One and premier trial race. All in all he clearly had a chance of some kind at the Festival but his physicality was still an issue. In fact, that problem of physicality would show the same tendency in the RSA itself, again losing his place before surging to the front, where he then fell.

The Falls:

The obvious horse to mention in this context is Quel Esprit (same trainer), who also fell twice in consecutive races as a novice in the Moriarty and the RSA (and was brought down at Punchestown). He had won comfortably on his chase debut in November looking set for a productive season (well regarded sort) but then did not reappear for three months until the Moriarty where he fell deep into the race. That three month gap suggested problems with his physicality (without searching for their exact nature retrospectively) and the fall highlighted the struggle to manage them. He fell again in the RSA when the pressure was likely beginning to hurt him three out. Boston Bob may prove to have more residual class than Quel Esprit who did eventually win an Irish Hennessy before fading from view. Like Boston Bob, Quel Esprit was shunned several times by Ruby Walsh who clearly knew of the physical problems the horse was having. The sidebet is not simply a comparative exercise however. It is a general test of discerning the importance of physicality and preparation in horses challenging for elite races. In any case there is another aspect to Boston Bob's physicality: he is already eight years of age. As such, in key contests in open company after the turn of the year he will be a nine year old. His profile begins to take on the look of a horse whose time never quite found him.

Horses recover from falls to win races; they can win races at any age; and they can win when not piloted by the stable's top jockey. Quel Esprit won a poor Irish Hennessy: Boston Bob will likely have to face the likes of First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs and Mount Benbulben in Graded races. He is not in their class. What of that weak Grade 2 contest somewhere? That is fine. The contention is that Boston Bob was being put under a kind of physical pressure his body was not strong enough to handle (so really my contention is that physical problems will always get the better of him). This was shown by him losing his place at crucial tactical points deep into the race. As other horses were starting to switch behind the bridle and grind powerfully Boston Bob was unable to make the same transition easily due to the hold ups in his physical work and strengthening. In the Moriarty he was afforded the chance to win as other horses were themselves in preparation for the RSA or in the case of Texas Jack slightly lacking in residual class. The RSA was a different matter. With only two runs in his legs when contesting the RSA, going deep into that race would have been a highly strenuous experience. He again lost his place (conditioning) which then resulted in the need for a rather dramatic sweeping move around the field to surge into the lead (stressful) meaning he was likely to be tiring rapidly when he fell at the last fence. It was not an even, fluid movement through the race; it was staccato, rise and fall, surge and tire. Analytically that can also be deduced from his next start, where the effort of the RSA was revealed in full. In the RSA he was towards the back of a compact field of runners; at Punchestown he was out the back on the first circuit and detached at the back on the second. No doubt his class and heart - he appears to be a brave horse that tries hard - were behind his slight progress approaching three out but the simple effort to try and get closer whilst still last appeared to tire him and he fell quite heavily. Staying chasers often race prominently with power and rhythm that increases gradually and evenly with intensity: this has not been the stamp of Boston Bob's races owing to his physical problems. Those problems may be resolved over the summer but even if they are he will still be an inexperienced eight year old chaser stepping into a Graded division with a number of high class animals as potential opponents. Were he to contest a top handicap with a biggish weight his physical problems may well resurface.

If, instead, he rises like a Phoenix to win a key race the bet will be lost but the task of producing analysis has already been worth it.