If the ground is Goodish on the day, this promises to be the most open renewal of the race in recent times. On soft or heavy, as was the case in 2012, the parameters narrow considerably.
The first thing to note is that the first and second favourites - as priced up at the time of writing - are highly unlikely to be participating. Neither Sprinter Sacre nor Simonsig are stayers at this stage of their careers and even if stretched into being assessed as potential stayers neither are suitable for a lung-bursting stamina test at elite level mid-way through their respective campaigns for Cheltenham over shorter trips. For the elite and unique test of a King George, their stable has the 2010 and 2012 winner Long Run.
Gold Cup winner, dual King George winner, dual Betfair Chase runner-up and twice third in Gold Cups following his finest hour in 2011, Long Run is the epitome of elite class mental strength and physical robustness which as the attritional races mount up compensates for a slight lack, at times, of raw athleticism. He will be bidding for his own place in a history book lately adorned with images of Kauto Star; Long Run's triple King George attempt sets the bar extremely high, in keeping with his rivalry with the horse that has denied him the hattrick already.
In seasons with a lesser pool of talent Long Run would be more prominent in analytical terms. Remarkably, even after the extraordinarily talented and reining Gold Cup Champion Bobs Worth (track direction), the still hugely promising Silviniaco Conti (track direction and trainer preference/alternatives) and the proven Grade One performer and Gold Cup runner-up Sir Des Champs (trainer preference/home-based campaign) have been omitted from calculations, Long Run (ground permitting) will still be facing strong challenges from at least two and probably three classy contenders, each with strong characteristics and each with a weakness to strengthen. The 2012 renewal was a vivid reminder of the brutal, physically gut-wrenching test the King George demands:
The officially heavy ground accentuated some of the elite characteristics of the race to the point of exhaustion, with the unerring pressure exerted on each horse's physicality laid bare coming down the home straight. As with any elite contest residual class differentials separate opponents to a greater or lesser extent. Those that faded from the contest were just as likely to have done so on good ground with the exception of Cue Card. That said he would still have been compromised by his start to the race, where he disagreed with the first two fences, subsequently moving into contention only to find the tank on empty. His high levels of residual class are not in doubt, nor his mentality. He recovered from his exhaustive effort at Kempton to win the Betfair Chase at Ascot by six lengths and, confirming his talent to all, the Ryanair Chase impressively by nine lengths; he still found it within him to chase home his nemesis at Aintree, as in the Arkle Chase keeping him in his sights meritoriously without being able to bend the laws of physics and pass him.
As has become obvious, in an era without Sprinter Sacre Cue Card would be contesting races at the traditionally more prestigious distance of two miles. So highly do the Tizzards (rightly) rate their horse that another clash with Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother Champion Chase was seriously considered before siding with giving their horse the best possible chance of another Festival win. After the race Colin Tizzard said:
Ground conditions are often overplayed in discussions of National Hunt racing at elite level, certainly where the very good horses are concerned. Good and Soft ground come alike to such animals but where a horse's physicality meets distance and an extreme of going we see the kind of race Cue Card ran at Kempton (barring the initial errors). Cue Card is an enthusiastic horse, keen to try his best at the start and finish of his races. He sailed around Cheltenham in the Ryanair Chase but in the process of outclassing his rivals his jockey revealed how he was able to continually get breathers into his horse without compromising the consistency of his gallop, filling Cue Card up on the undulations and surging on to leave his rivals toiling. In a King George that won't be possible. Cue Card may well stay even a searching gallop at around 21f but this three miles at Kempton has no breathing time, no uphill climbs where the pace can slow, nor downhill sections to fill-up whilst freewheeling. The King George ground continually claws at the legs, offering no assistance to elite contestants that cannot afford to slacken their efforts at any stage. If they are not travelling they are lacking class; if they are too keen or going too quickly they are not staying. The (almost) guaranteed presence of Long Run in the field acts as a metronome: he ensures an elite level, breather-less gallop few can sustain over three miles around Kempton - only the legendary Kauto Star has bested him there in the last three years. On good ground tangling with Long Run will drain all surface class from the legs laying bare identifiable levels of residual class, which Cue Card has in abundance. If the ground doesn't deteriorate, Cue Card will get his chance to freewheel, which he loves, and his class will see him deep into the race as others fall away.
One of two we know won't be fading away is the dual winner himself. On any ground he is clearly tough to beat at this track. One could have said 'get past' but Captain Chris, the 2011 Arkle Chase winner, came from another field to hunt him down and edge beyond him, only to wilt at his own shadow nearing the line. Long Run, having strode clear with everything seemingly out on their feet on the deep ground, perhaps gathered some strength from the time he idled as he waited for something to race with, surging bravely late on. Heroic scenes in deep winter on battlefield ground: if the same setting repeats, so might the result. Yet if the winter sun shines on drying ground, the strongest components of his physicality become open to more concrete challenges. On better ground horses with sufficient class will stay in the contest for much longer, even horses with insufficient residual class may be able to 'hang' with him for further, not unlike Champion Court did last December, ensuring still further no let up in the gallop and in so doing placing further emphasis on stamina and elite class levels. Long Run's Kempton specificity shapes his season. As per last season his debut in the Betfair Chase is one of 'consideration' for his main objective at Kempton and it is hard to envisage him gaining revenge on the more athletic Silviniaco Conti in a small field at Haydock. Following his Boxing Day exertions he either heads straight to Cheltenham where his chance is much more compromised or prepares for Cheltenham so, as at Haydock, not running at full tilt. This underlines the importance of Kempton on Boxing Day for this horse and his connections. A fearsome rival on any ground, what cannot be known is when the cumulative effect of his astonishing mental consistency will begin to ebb away at his talent. Perhaps the cheekpieces in the Gold Cup were a sign of that process, but it would be dangerous to assume so.
The other contender who should relish the stamina-sapping nature of the contest is Al Ferof. Not altogether without interest is the re-stated belief of Al Ferof's owner, John Hales, that his horse is and always has been Gold Cup bound. This is not a belief with an ephemeral character. John Hales alluded to it during Al Ferof's Supreme Novice season, which he won, one of the hottest renewals in recent memory. The rivals he vanquished that day would come back to resolutely affirm their superiority over Al Ferof at a distance of two miles where again it was made clear by connections that Al Ferof was not a two miler; high levels of residual class were aiding his cause that season. Moving into open company last season it emerged that the horse had been slow to hand, only given the green light to participate in the prestigious Paddy Power Gold Cup around a fortnight before the event, perhaps less. As with nearly all (potentially) top class horses ground seems to come alike to Al Ferof, he has won on all gradations of National Hunt going at least, and the way he moved through his race in the Cheltenham handicap left a lasting impression. The contest itself was weak and the ground heavy (officially Soft), but carrying 11-8 Al Ferof positively tanked through the race jumping accurately in the main to settle the race after the last fence. In reaffirming the potential that had been ruthlessly exposed over inadequate trips, Al Ferof established his profile as potentially one of the best young staying chasers in the country. The powerful mix of his trainer, jockey and - in this case - owner no doubt aided the propulsion of the horse to the theoretical haunches of Long Run; with momentum came second favouritism. Unfortunately a season-ending tendon tear put him in illustrious company of the wrong kind, on the injured list next to the legendary Big Buck's (who at the same time incurred the same kind of injury).
Al Ferof may therefore contest the King George without the aid of a preparatory run. This niggles at the mindset of traditionalist views of 'what a horse needs' but such views were simply smiled at by Bobs Worth as he took apart his Gold Cup field on less than ideal ground having not run since December 1, winning the Hennessy Gold Cup first time out having had the spring and summer off following his RSA Chase victory in March. This merely underlined what had already become a growing tendency amongst the most powerful stables, that fewer runs and more home conditioning and monitoring was proving a most agreeable method. Regardless of racecourse conditioning, Al Ferof will provide a formidable opponent: the Dom Alco French-bred gelding is bred for a staying test but he has already displayed the ability to race in high level two mile company over fences, when third in the Grade One Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot during his novice season. Providing he comes back into training without any niggling physical issues, his current price stands out as alarming and appealing in equal measure.
Offering further variety to a potentially eclectic mix of physical styles in this race is Dynaste. Of the leading contenders likely to run Dynaste is perhaps the least physically suited to the demands of a King George. He is also the least proven in general terms. Yet despite his Festival defeat in the Jewson Novices Chase there is still something of a dramatic edge about him. In part this is to do with the profile (and colour) symmetry he shares with his stablemate Grand Crus whose potential plateaued into a well beaten and muddy third in this race last year, a run flanked before and after by two lamentable efforts. A fairly constant shadow of unknown physical problems traced over Grand Crus. Generally unknown, that is, as often hazy references in the media by his trainer suggested, as one would hope, that David Pipe knew of his horse's physical imperfections. Both this situation with Grand Crus's physicality and a form of compliment to Dynaste were referenced by Pipe when in February this year he said that the latter was "a more straightforward horse". With Grand Crus, Pipe had often mentioned a slightly puzzling preference to run with cut in the ground, a common way of inferring that a horse's legs require care and attention and indicative of managing ongoing issues. Grand Crus' jockey, Tom Scudamore, alluded to what was expected when the horse was out of the physio room: "Grand Crus is like a tonne of dynamite. You know, like Wild Coyote [sic], sat on top of it," he said, referring to the manically fast cartoon character. Analytically, however, this is the description of a top class 5f sprinter, not an elite staying chaser. So it proved. Elite staying chasers use their energy and power evenly, not in dramatic bursts coming off the bridle. The Coyote comments came before the Paddy Power Gold Cup, in what seemed a sensible step to run the horse over a shorter distance than the gruelling RSA Chase in which he 'flopped'. The failure at Cheltenham, the ongoing physical inconsistency and the perception from within that the horse had push-button 'dynamite' acceleration combined to alarming effect as, despite being a very short priced favourite, they started their horse from last position, effectively expecting him to progress and 'sprint' past an entire field of runners on soft, deep ground. Which, of course, he could not. Wile. E. Coyote would have, though.
Analytically, Grand Crus' problematic profile and physicality became visually obvious after that race (no doubt before for many). He had, nonetheless, won one of the best Feltham Novices Chases in recent memory and the horse eventually responded to claim a distant but honourable third placing in the King George. What, then, of Dynaste. Firstly, a more even profile. Not as talented a hurdler as Grand Crus he was given a much more considerate season in open company in "the Big Buck's races" and immediately given the spring and summer off after the Festival. Secondly, a more sensible novice chase programme. Dynaste travels strongly on the bridle in his races but was often assigned a prominent enough position tracking the leaders (started first six in the Jewson). He dismantled his Feltham field on heavy ground which led to favouritism for the RSA Chase. Incorrectly, as with Grand Crus, his trainer again failed to utilise a prep race for his novice chaser. Correctly, he swerved the RSA Chase and opted for the shorter, less demanding Jewson Novices Chase where lack of preparation and, perhaps, lack of stable 'form' saw Dynaste fill second place behind the tough and robust Benefficient. It was notable that Dynaste took the lead fully three fences out and battled admirably when pressed approaching the last. Physically sound and able to be taken to Aintree, Dynaste resumed his dynamic pathway easily storming six lengths clear in the Mildmay, ending the season on a high note. Dynaste will be a strong contender for the Paddy Power Gold Cup but it would be erroneous to denote his chance in that race with a "see Grand Crus" tag. Their physicality and progression pathways are significantly different and Dynaste's level of residual class as a chaser is likely to be higher. Still, for this race, the running style is still a major concern, as Dynaste would likely need a very high level of residual class to be able to inflict sufficient pain on his rivals whilst still on the bridle. As noted, he battled quite hard for a fair way in the Jewson and it appears he has a much more even distribution of running power than the current general perception of him may allow for. His run style means goodish ground may be essential for his win chance.
Purely analytically, from a National Hunt racing perspective, perception of Dynaste (and comparisons with Grand Crus) was most interesting. For this race specifically Al Ferof, confirmation of strong physicality pending, appeals most as the likeliest winner. He is already rated highly enough by the official handicapper to be a winner-in-waiting of a Ryanair Chase but looks set fair to fulfil his potential as a staying chaser. Cue Card, the current Ryanair Chase Champion, may find this idiosyncratic test stretching his lungs even on good ground, but elite class horses are often capable of such stretches. Dynaste has the potential to snap at their heels. All these quality contenders vying to dethrone a dual winner of the race underlines, together with those who are unlikely to contest the event, the sheer depth of elite level talent National Hunt racing is currently capable of showcasing. A warming winter awaits.
The first thing to note is that the first and second favourites - as priced up at the time of writing - are highly unlikely to be participating. Neither Sprinter Sacre nor Simonsig are stayers at this stage of their careers and even if stretched into being assessed as potential stayers neither are suitable for a lung-bursting stamina test at elite level mid-way through their respective campaigns for Cheltenham over shorter trips. For the elite and unique test of a King George, their stable has the 2010 and 2012 winner Long Run.
Gold Cup winner, dual King George winner, dual Betfair Chase runner-up and twice third in Gold Cups following his finest hour in 2011, Long Run is the epitome of elite class mental strength and physical robustness which as the attritional races mount up compensates for a slight lack, at times, of raw athleticism. He will be bidding for his own place in a history book lately adorned with images of Kauto Star; Long Run's triple King George attempt sets the bar extremely high, in keeping with his rivalry with the horse that has denied him the hattrick already.
In seasons with a lesser pool of talent Long Run would be more prominent in analytical terms. Remarkably, even after the extraordinarily talented and reining Gold Cup Champion Bobs Worth (track direction), the still hugely promising Silviniaco Conti (track direction and trainer preference/alternatives) and the proven Grade One performer and Gold Cup runner-up Sir Des Champs (trainer preference/home-based campaign) have been omitted from calculations, Long Run (ground permitting) will still be facing strong challenges from at least two and probably three classy contenders, each with strong characteristics and each with a weakness to strengthen. The 2012 renewal was a vivid reminder of the brutal, physically gut-wrenching test the King George demands:
The officially heavy ground accentuated some of the elite characteristics of the race to the point of exhaustion, with the unerring pressure exerted on each horse's physicality laid bare coming down the home straight. As with any elite contest residual class differentials separate opponents to a greater or lesser extent. Those that faded from the contest were just as likely to have done so on good ground with the exception of Cue Card. That said he would still have been compromised by his start to the race, where he disagreed with the first two fences, subsequently moving into contention only to find the tank on empty. His high levels of residual class are not in doubt, nor his mentality. He recovered from his exhaustive effort at Kempton to win the Betfair Chase at Ascot by six lengths and, confirming his talent to all, the Ryanair Chase impressively by nine lengths; he still found it within him to chase home his nemesis at Aintree, as in the Arkle Chase keeping him in his sights meritoriously without being able to bend the laws of physics and pass him.
As has become obvious, in an era without Sprinter Sacre Cue Card would be contesting races at the traditionally more prestigious distance of two miles. So highly do the Tizzards (rightly) rate their horse that another clash with Sprinter Sacre in the Queen Mother Champion Chase was seriously considered before siding with giving their horse the best possible chance of another Festival win. After the race Colin Tizzard said:
There has always been a question whether he wants two or three miles. Two and a half looked perfect today, but I'm sure if it was good ground, we'd have another go at the King George next season.
Ground conditions are often overplayed in discussions of National Hunt racing at elite level, certainly where the very good horses are concerned. Good and Soft ground come alike to such animals but where a horse's physicality meets distance and an extreme of going we see the kind of race Cue Card ran at Kempton (barring the initial errors). Cue Card is an enthusiastic horse, keen to try his best at the start and finish of his races. He sailed around Cheltenham in the Ryanair Chase but in the process of outclassing his rivals his jockey revealed how he was able to continually get breathers into his horse without compromising the consistency of his gallop, filling Cue Card up on the undulations and surging on to leave his rivals toiling. In a King George that won't be possible. Cue Card may well stay even a searching gallop at around 21f but this three miles at Kempton has no breathing time, no uphill climbs where the pace can slow, nor downhill sections to fill-up whilst freewheeling. The King George ground continually claws at the legs, offering no assistance to elite contestants that cannot afford to slacken their efforts at any stage. If they are not travelling they are lacking class; if they are too keen or going too quickly they are not staying. The (almost) guaranteed presence of Long Run in the field acts as a metronome: he ensures an elite level, breather-less gallop few can sustain over three miles around Kempton - only the legendary Kauto Star has bested him there in the last three years. On good ground tangling with Long Run will drain all surface class from the legs laying bare identifiable levels of residual class, which Cue Card has in abundance. If the ground doesn't deteriorate, Cue Card will get his chance to freewheel, which he loves, and his class will see him deep into the race as others fall away.
One of two we know won't be fading away is the dual winner himself. On any ground he is clearly tough to beat at this track. One could have said 'get past' but Captain Chris, the 2011 Arkle Chase winner, came from another field to hunt him down and edge beyond him, only to wilt at his own shadow nearing the line. Long Run, having strode clear with everything seemingly out on their feet on the deep ground, perhaps gathered some strength from the time he idled as he waited for something to race with, surging bravely late on. Heroic scenes in deep winter on battlefield ground: if the same setting repeats, so might the result. Yet if the winter sun shines on drying ground, the strongest components of his physicality become open to more concrete challenges. On better ground horses with sufficient class will stay in the contest for much longer, even horses with insufficient residual class may be able to 'hang' with him for further, not unlike Champion Court did last December, ensuring still further no let up in the gallop and in so doing placing further emphasis on stamina and elite class levels. Long Run's Kempton specificity shapes his season. As per last season his debut in the Betfair Chase is one of 'consideration' for his main objective at Kempton and it is hard to envisage him gaining revenge on the more athletic Silviniaco Conti in a small field at Haydock. Following his Boxing Day exertions he either heads straight to Cheltenham where his chance is much more compromised or prepares for Cheltenham so, as at Haydock, not running at full tilt. This underlines the importance of Kempton on Boxing Day for this horse and his connections. A fearsome rival on any ground, what cannot be known is when the cumulative effect of his astonishing mental consistency will begin to ebb away at his talent. Perhaps the cheekpieces in the Gold Cup were a sign of that process, but it would be dangerous to assume so.
The other contender who should relish the stamina-sapping nature of the contest is Al Ferof. Not altogether without interest is the re-stated belief of Al Ferof's owner, John Hales, that his horse is and always has been Gold Cup bound. This is not a belief with an ephemeral character. John Hales alluded to it during Al Ferof's Supreme Novice season, which he won, one of the hottest renewals in recent memory. The rivals he vanquished that day would come back to resolutely affirm their superiority over Al Ferof at a distance of two miles where again it was made clear by connections that Al Ferof was not a two miler; high levels of residual class were aiding his cause that season. Moving into open company last season it emerged that the horse had been slow to hand, only given the green light to participate in the prestigious Paddy Power Gold Cup around a fortnight before the event, perhaps less. As with nearly all (potentially) top class horses ground seems to come alike to Al Ferof, he has won on all gradations of National Hunt going at least, and the way he moved through his race in the Cheltenham handicap left a lasting impression. The contest itself was weak and the ground heavy (officially Soft), but carrying 11-8 Al Ferof positively tanked through the race jumping accurately in the main to settle the race after the last fence. In reaffirming the potential that had been ruthlessly exposed over inadequate trips, Al Ferof established his profile as potentially one of the best young staying chasers in the country. The powerful mix of his trainer, jockey and - in this case - owner no doubt aided the propulsion of the horse to the theoretical haunches of Long Run; with momentum came second favouritism. Unfortunately a season-ending tendon tear put him in illustrious company of the wrong kind, on the injured list next to the legendary Big Buck's (who at the same time incurred the same kind of injury).
Al Ferof may therefore contest the King George without the aid of a preparatory run. This niggles at the mindset of traditionalist views of 'what a horse needs' but such views were simply smiled at by Bobs Worth as he took apart his Gold Cup field on less than ideal ground having not run since December 1, winning the Hennessy Gold Cup first time out having had the spring and summer off following his RSA Chase victory in March. This merely underlined what had already become a growing tendency amongst the most powerful stables, that fewer runs and more home conditioning and monitoring was proving a most agreeable method. Regardless of racecourse conditioning, Al Ferof will provide a formidable opponent: the Dom Alco French-bred gelding is bred for a staying test but he has already displayed the ability to race in high level two mile company over fences, when third in the Grade One Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot during his novice season. Providing he comes back into training without any niggling physical issues, his current price stands out as alarming and appealing in equal measure.
Offering further variety to a potentially eclectic mix of physical styles in this race is Dynaste. Of the leading contenders likely to run Dynaste is perhaps the least physically suited to the demands of a King George. He is also the least proven in general terms. Yet despite his Festival defeat in the Jewson Novices Chase there is still something of a dramatic edge about him. In part this is to do with the profile (and colour) symmetry he shares with his stablemate Grand Crus whose potential plateaued into a well beaten and muddy third in this race last year, a run flanked before and after by two lamentable efforts. A fairly constant shadow of unknown physical problems traced over Grand Crus. Generally unknown, that is, as often hazy references in the media by his trainer suggested, as one would hope, that David Pipe knew of his horse's physical imperfections. Both this situation with Grand Crus's physicality and a form of compliment to Dynaste were referenced by Pipe when in February this year he said that the latter was "a more straightforward horse". With Grand Crus, Pipe had often mentioned a slightly puzzling preference to run with cut in the ground, a common way of inferring that a horse's legs require care and attention and indicative of managing ongoing issues. Grand Crus' jockey, Tom Scudamore, alluded to what was expected when the horse was out of the physio room: "Grand Crus is like a tonne of dynamite. You know, like Wild Coyote [sic], sat on top of it," he said, referring to the manically fast cartoon character. Analytically, however, this is the description of a top class 5f sprinter, not an elite staying chaser. So it proved. Elite staying chasers use their energy and power evenly, not in dramatic bursts coming off the bridle. The Coyote comments came before the Paddy Power Gold Cup, in what seemed a sensible step to run the horse over a shorter distance than the gruelling RSA Chase in which he 'flopped'. The failure at Cheltenham, the ongoing physical inconsistency and the perception from within that the horse had push-button 'dynamite' acceleration combined to alarming effect as, despite being a very short priced favourite, they started their horse from last position, effectively expecting him to progress and 'sprint' past an entire field of runners on soft, deep ground. Which, of course, he could not. Wile. E. Coyote would have, though.
Analytically, Grand Crus' problematic profile and physicality became visually obvious after that race (no doubt before for many). He had, nonetheless, won one of the best Feltham Novices Chases in recent memory and the horse eventually responded to claim a distant but honourable third placing in the King George. What, then, of Dynaste. Firstly, a more even profile. Not as talented a hurdler as Grand Crus he was given a much more considerate season in open company in "the Big Buck's races" and immediately given the spring and summer off after the Festival. Secondly, a more sensible novice chase programme. Dynaste travels strongly on the bridle in his races but was often assigned a prominent enough position tracking the leaders (started first six in the Jewson). He dismantled his Feltham field on heavy ground which led to favouritism for the RSA Chase. Incorrectly, as with Grand Crus, his trainer again failed to utilise a prep race for his novice chaser. Correctly, he swerved the RSA Chase and opted for the shorter, less demanding Jewson Novices Chase where lack of preparation and, perhaps, lack of stable 'form' saw Dynaste fill second place behind the tough and robust Benefficient. It was notable that Dynaste took the lead fully three fences out and battled admirably when pressed approaching the last. Physically sound and able to be taken to Aintree, Dynaste resumed his dynamic pathway easily storming six lengths clear in the Mildmay, ending the season on a high note. Dynaste will be a strong contender for the Paddy Power Gold Cup but it would be erroneous to denote his chance in that race with a "see Grand Crus" tag. Their physicality and progression pathways are significantly different and Dynaste's level of residual class as a chaser is likely to be higher. Still, for this race, the running style is still a major concern, as Dynaste would likely need a very high level of residual class to be able to inflict sufficient pain on his rivals whilst still on the bridle. As noted, he battled quite hard for a fair way in the Jewson and it appears he has a much more even distribution of running power than the current general perception of him may allow for. His run style means goodish ground may be essential for his win chance.
Purely analytically, from a National Hunt racing perspective, perception of Dynaste (and comparisons with Grand Crus) was most interesting. For this race specifically Al Ferof, confirmation of strong physicality pending, appeals most as the likeliest winner. He is already rated highly enough by the official handicapper to be a winner-in-waiting of a Ryanair Chase but looks set fair to fulfil his potential as a staying chaser. Cue Card, the current Ryanair Chase Champion, may find this idiosyncratic test stretching his lungs even on good ground, but elite class horses are often capable of such stretches. Dynaste has the potential to snap at their heels. All these quality contenders vying to dethrone a dual winner of the race underlines, together with those who are unlikely to contest the event, the sheer depth of elite level talent National Hunt racing is currently capable of showcasing. A warming winter awaits.
