* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference
Success depends upon previous preparation, and without such preparation there is sure to be failure
- Confucius
For nearly half a century trainers of RSA Chase candidates have assured themselves and those interested that a "prep run" is not required. For nearly half a century they have been wrong. The last 49 winners of this race had run in the same calendar year. In some renewals all the main players will have had a prep run, with no "fresh" candidates, which only serves to emphasize the overall point. Rigid minds. In another twenty two years or so the length of this statistical anomaly will have matched the age at which Confucius passed away. Those betting on the race who suggest they are "not bothered" by this equine sponsored educational message are deceiving themselves but it is possible that within the riddle is a deeper meaning. For sure, preparation is important, but in open company absence did not stop Bobs Worth from winning the hardest physical test of all - the Gold Cup - having not run since December 1. It is not so much that potential RSA Chase horses need a prep run, although there are clear physiological reasons why they do. It is more to do with the fact that horses that are asked not to prepare on a racecourse are either a) not actually top class novice prospects and/or b) carrying physical problems that need managing rather than exacerbating but which are then fundamentally exposed by the demands of an RSA Chase. In some way such horses are being "looked after", whilst the real/better contenders are allowed by their connections to get out and prove it. Experience of running and defeat for RSA contenders is often crucial to their development.
The honourable First Lieutenant is an interesting recent example, given that he was "fresh" for his RSA Chase in which he was beaten by Bobs Worth (who was, simply, the better horse) but over hurdles had been prepared in exactly the same way by his trainer to win a competitive renewal of the Neptune Novices Hurdle. Chasing is far more demanding, of course, and when he was runner-up in the RSA Chase he may have been fortunate that Last Instalment, who had beaten him convincingly by 6L earlier that season in the Topaz Novices Chase, and Invictus, who had beaten Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti in the Reynoldstown at Ascot, both missed the race through injury. One day, one year, sure, the winner of the RSA Chase will buck the increasingly iron-clad trend. Of the five prominent opponents in place this season, only one is arriving fresh (Morning Assembly).
Smad Place ran for the third time this season in February and as a seven year old he may only now be maturing into his physical capacity. It could be that he is a slightly fragile type, also. The reasoning for this stems from his ten months off the track following his Triumph Hurdle season. Following his comeback in January 2012 his trainer revealed that:
He's had some problems and we never had him right last year [2011]. He spent most of the winter on antibiotics, and although he did well in the summer, he went and threw a splint and we couldn't get him ready.
He subsequently recorded a respectable third to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle, but was again presumably experiencing problems at the start of the 2012-13 season (beaten 39L in his two starts) and only came right in the Spring, with solid third placings to Solwhit at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. It is therefore likely that he summered well and was strong enough to begin a novice chase campaign but this time misfortune constrained him: he unseated with the race at his mercy on his chase debut and after winning comfortably on his next start his stable had to be closed down due to problems affecting many runners. He reappeared in February at a near-waterlogged Newbury to beat Sam Winner by 2L but whilst this was again meritorious he did not stamp the authority of a top novice prospect on his rival and goes to Cheltenham without experience at Graded chase level.
Right Place What Time? Smad Place has run his best races in the second half of the season to date
That said for whatever reason Smad Place does seem to come to himself in the second half of the season. As well as overall class the question mark for the athletic grey is his energy distribution, which at the top level over hurdles was extremely even. This means he could gallop towards the front of an elite race without ever really threatening to land a blow in the contest. His latest win at Newbury was of a similar kind but at Cheltenham his opponents will have more residual class than Sam Winner - his Irish counterparts have been trading blows at Graded Chase level for most of the season.
One of whom is Carlingford Lough, who in March will be having his fourteenth chase start in just eighteen months. His main recent target was last summer's Galway Plate, which he won as a heavily backed favourite in the process ending a run of eight consecutive defeats. Perhaps the win gave him wings because following a short break over October and November he grew into a leading Grade One novice chaser. Firstly pushing Don Cossack all the way in the Drinmore Novices Chase; secondly beating Morning Assembly in the Topaz Novices Chase; and most recently being well in contention jumping the last fence in the Dr P. J. Moriarty Novices Chase against Ballycasey and, again, Don Cossack but being caught slightly short of room on the inner causing a peck on landing and a jockey exit. That he has prospered over the winter months without a summer break reveals a high level of mental toughness that cannot be ignored, especially in a race where focusing the mind is key.
The evidence so far suggests that Carlingford Lough is a thorough stayer - he was an 8/1 favourite for the Irish Grand National (2013, pulled up) - and had stayed on well to win the Galway Plate on soft ground. His On/Behind bridle ratio stresses the "behind" aspect and because he seems to start most of his races in rear his mentality is important: he must be willing to commit himself to the contest then match and surpass what those in front of him are demanding. His best run so far came in the Topaz Novices Chase over 3m where he was able to race powerfully for a sustained period behind the bridle to get the better of Morning Assembly. Either side of that race he was perhaps just caught out for pace/gallop class when run down by Don Cossack (20f, G/Y) and in the Moriarty when trying to challenge Ballycasey's dominance. Against Don Cossack he looked to have his rival in trouble but it was likely that the shorter distance and better ground did not stretch his rival's energy reserves enough and, perhaps, the race exposed a class differential. It looked that way visually at least. It has to be considered by way of balance that that particular race was Carlingford Lough's first after his mini-break following the summer, whereas Don Cossack had run just two weeks prior.
Carlingford Lough is a strong stayer with a toughened mentality and is unlikely to be affected in any way by being tightened for room at the last fence at Leopardstown. His biggest obstacle looks set to be conceding ground via race position to horses who in all probability have more residual class than him: his continuous race profile, the assault on prestigious handicap chases, and the fact that he is already an eight year old may just signify that connections were always fully aware of his limitations on some level. He will have Synchronised as his shadow through the race and remains a potent threat.
I Will Find You: Carlingford Lough (left) has Graded chase talent, power behind the bridle and an all-action mentality
And so enters the "fresh" horse, the one charged with turning over the hands of Confucius without touching him. That Morning Assembly has the raw ability to win based on this season's evidence is not in doubt: he has run easily with his main rivals in Ireland bar Ballycasey. But he has done so only in the first half of the season and the reason why has been stated specifically by his trainer:
Fresh Fear: Morning Assembly will make RSA Chase history if overcoming racecourse absence to win
Barring one fall over hurdles Morning Assembly has finished first or second on every start under Rules. He has shown himself adaptable to small and large field sizes and to varying degrees of ground conditions. He was classy enough to win a Grade One novice hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last season. Having won his tussle with Don Cossack he then faced off with the steely, progressive and experienced Carlingford Lough in the Topaz Novices Chase over three miles. In that race he travelled prominently and comfortably in terrible weather but as his trainer has noted he was a little "careful" with some of his jumping, which led to some of his galloping pace advantage being shorn off. What was interesting analytically about the race was the different stages at which both transferred their energy behind the bridle. Carlingford Lough had done so out of necessity much earlier - he had to make ground from rear and his On/Behind bridle ratio strongly favours the latter aspect in this company, so getting rolling early was important. Morning Assembly's optimal bridal ratio is more central, by contrast. He was able to travel more easily through the race but that meant that he had less time to respond behind the bridle. He had begun the transfer of energy process after the final bend but had to be held together at the final fence and therefore only got racing proper after landing, whereas his main rival had been rolling behind the bridle with increasing power from some way out and mastered him late but with authority on the run to the line. With no more experience, no more miles in the legs, Morning Assembly will have to prove he can cope with more rivals pressing and harrying him through the race and then deal with other, classier horses racing proper over a longer distance than was the case in the Topaz. It is a tall order indeed.
Ballycasey made his way to the Festival last year but he was withdrawn from the Albert Bartlett Novices Chase on the morning of the race owing, officially, to abnormal blood analysis. With an infrequent racecourse appearance pattern, Ballycasey brings a sense of fragility to a tough race. Yet that he is potentially the classiest horse in the race is perhaps not in doubt and, analytically, he possesses the requisite characteristics to win the event. He was initially unextended over hurdles, winning easily twice in the manner of a potentially elite racehorse before being withdrawn from Cheltenham and running next at Punchestown, where he ran as if not at his best but was nonetheless beaten 7L into third by a horse he may meet here, Morning Assembly.
Despite always being thought of as a stayer, his trainer had no concerns about starting his novice chase season in a moderate race over 17f on good ground. Ballycasey didn't turn a hair in winning but then suffered a setback of some kind over the winter and did not reappear next until the three-runner Grade One Dr. P. J. Moriarty Chase - almost a rite of passage for future Irish RSA Chase winners. The trial race is a stepping stone and winning is by no means imperative but Ballycasey did win, making all and staying on well from the front to confirm the promise of his prior runs. The somewhat limited evidence suggests that his curve of energy distribution is quite even but that it is underpinned by a certain amount of residual class. He can probably jump and progress through any intensity of race transitions to a certain point but there has to be a concern regarding the amount of energy and intensity he will be able to transfer behind the bridle towards the end of a three mile Festival race. Class dispensed in the form of "On" bridle work within a comfort zone only carries a racehorse so far. This is not to suggest that Ballycasey cannot race effectively once forced to switch behind the bridle - he did so in the Moriarty - but lack of racecourse evidence makes it possible only to estimate the extent to which he can successfully knit together each successive race transition once faced with peak fitness competition, better ground and harder, longer running. The demands on his energy distribution curve will potentially skew the evidence generated under less demanding circumstances so far (the Moriarty was a classy race but its effects were generated by only three runners).
Class Power: Ballycasey's physique does not lend itself to intense training and racecourse frequency
His physicality must also be noted. He is not in the "bruising" or "strapping" chaser mould. He offers elegance and refinement in a way that suggests his training problems correspond to a physical constitution of silk rather than toughened leather. There is no doubting his mentality when he is sound but time and again the RSA Chase knowingly gathers in the excuses for connections to use after defeat is announced. There is a proviso amongst this. Firstly that the runners from the UK actually lack the class suggested in their runs to date (only the Reynoldstown Chase can now change that); and secondly that Ballycasey himself improves and matures for having something of a proper race over fences. The blood and thunder RSA Chase does not always materialise. It is always physically demanding but some are brutal affairs; however only recently Bobs Worth's defeat of First Lieutenant was a little more serene. In that kind of race, Ballycasey's high levels of residual class would be strongly favoured.
As is now apparent, a win for any of the four main Irish challengers would not be a surprise. But they will be separated in the race by specific racing reasons be they predictable, explicable or not. This is the attempt being made here. Small setbacks that will be revealed after the race will largely be unknown before it; there can be a difference between progression and thriving leading into the race. In many ways given that Ballycasey outpointed DON COSSACK quite readily at Leopardstown, it may seem counter-intuitive to expect the defeated horse there to prevail in the bigger event. Nor would Ballycasey confirming the form be in the least bit surprising. But as with Lord Windermere last season, the racecourse evidence strongly suggests that winning the RSA Chase is within the compass of the Gigginstown runner.
In the Grade Two Florida Pearl Novice Chase (22f, Y) Don Cossack was jumping out of his jockey's hands, Cooper having to hold onto him on landing several times to prevent him from doing too much, often moving forward when galloping also but then restrained slightly, in so doing using up precious energy through the race which was ultimately why he was outstayed at the end of it, allied to the fact that it was in the early season stage of training. The horse that used his energy more efficiently on the day, Morning Assembly, will reoppose in March but the circumstances of their subsequent development and training programmes are very different. That November race is likely to have told his trainer most of what he wanted to know about his horse. Just two weeks later, again relishing dry ground, Don Cossack took down the Drinmore Novices Chase beating Carlingford Lough, who would then go on to beat Morning Assembly in the Topaz at the end of the month. Here, the Drinmore, early December, the efforts of his race just two weeks prior meant that Don Cossack was unable to run as effectively as before. He travelled okay but had to start switching behind the bridle notably early compared to his previous run. He then seemed to lack some strength and conditioning as Carlingford Lough, himself racing behind the bridle, pulled away a bit. What was impressive in this respect was the way in which Don Cossack responded to being organized behind the bridle and, eventually finding his breathing rhythm, finally stayed on powerfully to mow down his determined rival. He found a way to win.
Power-packed: Don Cossack (right) did most of his racing in impressive fashion before jumping slightly left at the last fence in the Florida Pearl Novices Chase. He was still able to fight back alongside Morning Assembly, but was outstayed by a more energy efficient rival on the day
His prep run (21f Soft/Heavy) in the Moriarty signified his continued seasonal progress. It would have been surprising had he been able to move easily with the fluent class of Ballycasey on this ground at this distance but nonetheless he was far from compromised. His transfer of energy phase was notably smooth, shaken up with the reins to keep close contact with the leader approaching the final bend the switch behind the bridle began but there was no loss of momentum. Slightly behind him, Carlingford Lough was being given encouragement from the whip but Don Cossack was not: he was transferring his energy behind the bridle and after jumping the last was then asked for maximum effort and responded well. He was unable to match the class of Ballycasey over this distance, on this ground, on this day but he did not let him get away from him by too much, suggesting an examination over further and on drier ground (or ground less deep) would match the range of his energy distribution curve far more.
Over hurdles Don Cossack ran with some illustrious names: Defy Logic, Sizing Gold, Pont Alexandre, The Tullow Tank, Mozoltov, Annie Power. And although unsuccessful in that sphere in Graded company, he was expected to emerge a tougher, more resolute and more effective staying novice chaser. He clearly summered well as evidenced by starting his campaign as early as October and he has progressed through each stage of the season, absorbing four races into his legs and responding to each physical challenge and race recovery period. He has always had great scope, a physical size and composition that would require staying distances and whilst clearly handling heavy ground he has proved his preference for drier surfaces on which he travels and jumps with alacrity. In 2011 his trainer went very close in this race with a horse that travelled supremely well throughout but who just failed to handle the final uphill demands of the contest behind the bridle. Don Cossack's On/Behind bridle ratio is more even, more atoned to the demands of this race and as was the case last year he may tell us that defeat in the Moriarty is an ideal way to prepare for the big day.
The evidence so far suggests that Carlingford Lough is a thorough stayer - he was an 8/1 favourite for the Irish Grand National (2013, pulled up) - and had stayed on well to win the Galway Plate on soft ground. His On/Behind bridle ratio stresses the "behind" aspect and because he seems to start most of his races in rear his mentality is important: he must be willing to commit himself to the contest then match and surpass what those in front of him are demanding. His best run so far came in the Topaz Novices Chase over 3m where he was able to race powerfully for a sustained period behind the bridle to get the better of Morning Assembly. Either side of that race he was perhaps just caught out for pace/gallop class when run down by Don Cossack (20f, G/Y) and in the Moriarty when trying to challenge Ballycasey's dominance. Against Don Cossack he looked to have his rival in trouble but it was likely that the shorter distance and better ground did not stretch his rival's energy reserves enough and, perhaps, the race exposed a class differential. It looked that way visually at least. It has to be considered by way of balance that that particular race was Carlingford Lough's first after his mini-break following the summer, whereas Don Cossack had run just two weeks prior.
Carlingford Lough is a strong stayer with a toughened mentality and is unlikely to be affected in any way by being tightened for room at the last fence at Leopardstown. His biggest obstacle looks set to be conceding ground via race position to horses who in all probability have more residual class than him: his continuous race profile, the assault on prestigious handicap chases, and the fact that he is already an eight year old may just signify that connections were always fully aware of his limitations on some level. He will have Synchronised as his shadow through the race and remains a potent threat.
I Will Find You: Carlingford Lough (left) has Graded chase talent, power behind the bridle and an all-action mentality
And so enters the "fresh" horse, the one charged with turning over the hands of Confucius without touching him. That Morning Assembly has the raw ability to win based on this season's evidence is not in doubt: he has run easily with his main rivals in Ireland bar Ballycasey. But he has done so only in the first half of the season and the reason why has been stated specifically by his trainer:
It was always the plan to go straight from Christmas to Cheltenham as we don't want to over-race him. His real strong point is stamina and the RSA Chase has been the aim all along, but he's really a horse for next year.This is the crux of the matter. Next year he will be forced to race in open company, against hardened elite class horses and horses out of the very top drawer - the kind of experience that his trainer says he lacks now, in his novice season. If he is thought good enough for open company Graded races in the future, the aim for a top staying prospect is either to master the Cheltenham Festival or avoid it, as Paul Nicholls chose to do with Silviniaco Conti, for example. Instead, with a committed hesitation and whatever the reasons be they to do with quality or physicality, a mixed message is sent to the horse on raceday: give your all, even though we have not prepared you to do so and this, more than anything else, seals the fate of the "fresh" RSA Chase horse.
Fresh Fear: Morning Assembly will make RSA Chase history if overcoming racecourse absence to win
Barring one fall over hurdles Morning Assembly has finished first or second on every start under Rules. He has shown himself adaptable to small and large field sizes and to varying degrees of ground conditions. He was classy enough to win a Grade One novice hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last season. Having won his tussle with Don Cossack he then faced off with the steely, progressive and experienced Carlingford Lough in the Topaz Novices Chase over three miles. In that race he travelled prominently and comfortably in terrible weather but as his trainer has noted he was a little "careful" with some of his jumping, which led to some of his galloping pace advantage being shorn off. What was interesting analytically about the race was the different stages at which both transferred their energy behind the bridle. Carlingford Lough had done so out of necessity much earlier - he had to make ground from rear and his On/Behind bridle ratio strongly favours the latter aspect in this company, so getting rolling early was important. Morning Assembly's optimal bridal ratio is more central, by contrast. He was able to travel more easily through the race but that meant that he had less time to respond behind the bridle. He had begun the transfer of energy process after the final bend but had to be held together at the final fence and therefore only got racing proper after landing, whereas his main rival had been rolling behind the bridle with increasing power from some way out and mastered him late but with authority on the run to the line. With no more experience, no more miles in the legs, Morning Assembly will have to prove he can cope with more rivals pressing and harrying him through the race and then deal with other, classier horses racing proper over a longer distance than was the case in the Topaz. It is a tall order indeed.
Ballycasey made his way to the Festival last year but he was withdrawn from the Albert Bartlett Novices Chase on the morning of the race owing, officially, to abnormal blood analysis. With an infrequent racecourse appearance pattern, Ballycasey brings a sense of fragility to a tough race. Yet that he is potentially the classiest horse in the race is perhaps not in doubt and, analytically, he possesses the requisite characteristics to win the event. He was initially unextended over hurdles, winning easily twice in the manner of a potentially elite racehorse before being withdrawn from Cheltenham and running next at Punchestown, where he ran as if not at his best but was nonetheless beaten 7L into third by a horse he may meet here, Morning Assembly.
Despite always being thought of as a stayer, his trainer had no concerns about starting his novice chase season in a moderate race over 17f on good ground. Ballycasey didn't turn a hair in winning but then suffered a setback of some kind over the winter and did not reappear next until the three-runner Grade One Dr. P. J. Moriarty Chase - almost a rite of passage for future Irish RSA Chase winners. The trial race is a stepping stone and winning is by no means imperative but Ballycasey did win, making all and staying on well from the front to confirm the promise of his prior runs. The somewhat limited evidence suggests that his curve of energy distribution is quite even but that it is underpinned by a certain amount of residual class. He can probably jump and progress through any intensity of race transitions to a certain point but there has to be a concern regarding the amount of energy and intensity he will be able to transfer behind the bridle towards the end of a three mile Festival race. Class dispensed in the form of "On" bridle work within a comfort zone only carries a racehorse so far. This is not to suggest that Ballycasey cannot race effectively once forced to switch behind the bridle - he did so in the Moriarty - but lack of racecourse evidence makes it possible only to estimate the extent to which he can successfully knit together each successive race transition once faced with peak fitness competition, better ground and harder, longer running. The demands on his energy distribution curve will potentially skew the evidence generated under less demanding circumstances so far (the Moriarty was a classy race but its effects were generated by only three runners).
Class Power: Ballycasey's physique does not lend itself to intense training and racecourse frequency
His physicality must also be noted. He is not in the "bruising" or "strapping" chaser mould. He offers elegance and refinement in a way that suggests his training problems correspond to a physical constitution of silk rather than toughened leather. There is no doubting his mentality when he is sound but time and again the RSA Chase knowingly gathers in the excuses for connections to use after defeat is announced. There is a proviso amongst this. Firstly that the runners from the UK actually lack the class suggested in their runs to date (only the Reynoldstown Chase can now change that); and secondly that Ballycasey himself improves and matures for having something of a proper race over fences. The blood and thunder RSA Chase does not always materialise. It is always physically demanding but some are brutal affairs; however only recently Bobs Worth's defeat of First Lieutenant was a little more serene. In that kind of race, Ballycasey's high levels of residual class would be strongly favoured.
As is now apparent, a win for any of the four main Irish challengers would not be a surprise. But they will be separated in the race by specific racing reasons be they predictable, explicable or not. This is the attempt being made here. Small setbacks that will be revealed after the race will largely be unknown before it; there can be a difference between progression and thriving leading into the race. In many ways given that Ballycasey outpointed DON COSSACK quite readily at Leopardstown, it may seem counter-intuitive to expect the defeated horse there to prevail in the bigger event. Nor would Ballycasey confirming the form be in the least bit surprising. But as with Lord Windermere last season, the racecourse evidence strongly suggests that winning the RSA Chase is within the compass of the Gigginstown runner.
In the Grade Two Florida Pearl Novice Chase (22f, Y) Don Cossack was jumping out of his jockey's hands, Cooper having to hold onto him on landing several times to prevent him from doing too much, often moving forward when galloping also but then restrained slightly, in so doing using up precious energy through the race which was ultimately why he was outstayed at the end of it, allied to the fact that it was in the early season stage of training. The horse that used his energy more efficiently on the day, Morning Assembly, will reoppose in March but the circumstances of their subsequent development and training programmes are very different. That November race is likely to have told his trainer most of what he wanted to know about his horse. Just two weeks later, again relishing dry ground, Don Cossack took down the Drinmore Novices Chase beating Carlingford Lough, who would then go on to beat Morning Assembly in the Topaz at the end of the month. Here, the Drinmore, early December, the efforts of his race just two weeks prior meant that Don Cossack was unable to run as effectively as before. He travelled okay but had to start switching behind the bridle notably early compared to his previous run. He then seemed to lack some strength and conditioning as Carlingford Lough, himself racing behind the bridle, pulled away a bit. What was impressive in this respect was the way in which Don Cossack responded to being organized behind the bridle and, eventually finding his breathing rhythm, finally stayed on powerfully to mow down his determined rival. He found a way to win.
Power-packed: Don Cossack (right) did most of his racing in impressive fashion before jumping slightly left at the last fence in the Florida Pearl Novices Chase. He was still able to fight back alongside Morning Assembly, but was outstayed by a more energy efficient rival on the day
His prep run (21f Soft/Heavy) in the Moriarty signified his continued seasonal progress. It would have been surprising had he been able to move easily with the fluent class of Ballycasey on this ground at this distance but nonetheless he was far from compromised. His transfer of energy phase was notably smooth, shaken up with the reins to keep close contact with the leader approaching the final bend the switch behind the bridle began but there was no loss of momentum. Slightly behind him, Carlingford Lough was being given encouragement from the whip but Don Cossack was not: he was transferring his energy behind the bridle and after jumping the last was then asked for maximum effort and responded well. He was unable to match the class of Ballycasey over this distance, on this ground, on this day but he did not let him get away from him by too much, suggesting an examination over further and on drier ground (or ground less deep) would match the range of his energy distribution curve far more.
Over hurdles Don Cossack ran with some illustrious names: Defy Logic, Sizing Gold, Pont Alexandre, The Tullow Tank, Mozoltov, Annie Power. And although unsuccessful in that sphere in Graded company, he was expected to emerge a tougher, more resolute and more effective staying novice chaser. He clearly summered well as evidenced by starting his campaign as early as October and he has progressed through each stage of the season, absorbing four races into his legs and responding to each physical challenge and race recovery period. He has always had great scope, a physical size and composition that would require staying distances and whilst clearly handling heavy ground he has proved his preference for drier surfaces on which he travels and jumps with alacrity. In 2011 his trainer went very close in this race with a horse that travelled supremely well throughout but who just failed to handle the final uphill demands of the contest behind the bridle. Don Cossack's On/Behind bridle ratio is more even, more atoned to the demands of this race and as was the case last year he may tell us that defeat in the Moriarty is an ideal way to prepare for the big day.
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