Wednesday 10 October 2012

What to do, with Grand Crus


It's perhaps not surprising that a firm plan hasn't been mapped out for Grand Crus. Worth remembering that he ran well against Big Buck's but was eyeballed and beaten easily looking of smaller stature and resolution. Subsequently at Aintree he was demolished before being sent (presumably pot-hunting) to France. He was exhausted and well beaten.

He got the rave reviews as most good horses do FTO over fences but his next three runs have all left question marks. Having been closely attended by Sonofvic he then appeared to run with the choke out in the Feltham. His destructive move was mid-race where Bobs Worth and Silvi Conti couldn't cope with the exuberant pace he injected, very much like those that attempted to give chase to Nacarat when that horse had ideal conditions. Despite that, he was being held together approaching the line looking very much (to me) a tired horse. Silvi Conti, himself far from accomplished, got back to him and the form of that race could well be just as it is: a 2.25L beating of the Nicholls horse who was brushed aside in the Reynoldstown. That race would have left few question marks had it not been for the flurry of superlatives that followed, tilting stable and media to talk of a Gold Cup assault. Beaten 18L in the RSA, the talk was misplaced. He can be forgiven that run as he "wasn't right" and scoped dirty afterwards but the Feltham and an excuse have propelled him towards the head of the PPGC & King George markets.

As noted at the time, talk of the Gold Cup was perhaps the most disturbing aspect of his season: having gone pot-hunting when exhausted at the end of his big hurdles season, they appeared wont to extract another payday that was out of kilter with both the horse's physical characteristics and his stage of development. It suggests that, due to size, his sometimes choke-out style, or whatever, his durability is in question.

That will be tested once and for all this season as, stepping into open company, he has nothing but the biggest races as alternatives.

A curious duality has, it seems, already emerged. Supposedly, the PPGC distance of 2m5f is "ideal" for a horse with question marks about his stamina - a drop in trip, running at the speed in which he ran the Feltham, make him a huge player. Yet he is equally prominent for the King George, a lung-bursting 3m which in open company places stern emphasis on stamina due to the constant breather-less nature of the race/track. He stayed 3m over hurdles but fences exact a bigger physical exertion; he lasted it out in the Feltham as a novice but only just and had he not been off colour in the RSA it is still open to question how much if any superiority he would have enjoyed against out and out grinders up the hill. So which is it?

A horse surrounded by continual decisions and "either/or's" - they are still not sure what they have, or how good what they do have is, or how good he will be in three to six months time, or whether he has the constitution to come back and repeat the process. The jury is very much out for me too, for either race and the future. Horses who try to eyeball Big Buck's then get beaten in the ultra-grind of an RSA are most likely not going to 'make it'.