The Festival Graded race results will be written up in due course, after a little break. Have to decide how to frame the write-ups best with regards to the future & next season.
The highlight was the Wednesday with the Neptune 1-2 and the RSA 1-3 and a 100/1 double.
There were two heart-breaking falls and some near misses in terms of decision-making. Strategy was good overall and possible improvements already apparent. The two falls were (from memory) 4 out and 3 out in their respective races and represented potential earnings (via otherwise accurate multi's) of £5.5k and £7k had they stood up and won - part of the never ending 'what ifs' of racing. Some fault with that scenario has also been identified.
Excluding the wonderful Quevega and Sprinter Sacre:
Graded race form figures based on main fancy/winning: 21F110102BF
Graded race form figures based on best result: 21211013B3
Via BST there were Handicap winners at 25/1 (Rajdhani Express) and 16/1 (Salubrious). A lot of the other handicaps looked difficult as usual and held little interest.
##
Luis Suarez was a 16/1 shot at the start of the season (blogged sometime pre-season) when seen in the main as a) a Liverpool player (negatively) and b) a suspect finisher. He is now 8/15. He is three ahead of Robin Van Persie at the time of writing (22-19) who, although in a mini-slump, will no doubt be fed a whole host of chances in a bid to overhaul the Liverpool player. Fingers are crossed that Luis continues to do what he has done so far!
Friday 15 March 2013
Tuesday 5 March 2013
The 2013 Arkle Chase
On any ground, SIMONSIG is a future superstar and faces nothing within a stone of his level in this race.
Selection: SIMONSIG.
Selection: SIMONSIG.
Sunday 3 March 2013
2013 Triumph Hurdle - Raceday Thoughts
* Assumed ground is g/s
{dealing with the three leading contenders only}
Firstly Our Conor:
Unbeaten in three. Seemingly transformed by a switch to hurdles. Prior to the new year he won easily at 8/13 and then less easily in a G3 at 8/11. The runner-up in that contest has subsequently won a G2 in workmanlike fashion.
His claims essentially rest on the form and visual impression of one run, which is not unusual for a Triumph contender. The G1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle is Ireland's best trial for a festival race they almost never win - just one winner this century (trained by Willie Mullins). Our Conor brushed aside two well-regarded Willie Mullins trained rivals to record an emphatic win in stylish fashion, travelling well round the bend into the straight to coast alongside his main rival (Diakali) and bound away from him over the last to break the line a comfortable 5L clear.
This propelled him to the head of the Triumph market with the "most impressive" tag-line and the suggestion that a repeat of that performance would see him win at the festival. But would it? Delving a little deeper he becomes a little less appealing.
Form: He is the best of the Irish without doubt but that is rarely enough as highlighted above. The winner of the trial race he won has finished 2868079022 suggesting if they're good enough they'll win but that they almost never are. A lot was made before the race of the Mullins duo but Diakali had beaten nothing by wide margins in heavy ground at odds on and it is very difficult to know what level he is genuinely at. Blood Cotil ran a lifeless race turning in having previously beaten Stockton Wing about the same distance as had the winner. Corresponding to the visual impression left by Our Conor is also the knowledge that he has had a 'proper race' in soft ground just four weeks before the festival and recovery has to be taken on trust.
Ground: Having raced almost exclusively on soft and heavy ground in his career a change of ground may not bring about a lot of improvement as an isolated variable. The trainer's keenness to express a preference for good ground is likely to do with the turn of foot he has shown to settle his races which would be seen to best advantage on better ground and avoid the prospect of a staying war. This raises the question of whether a strong travelling, speedy type is really the right kind of runner for a Triumph on the stiffer new course where previous winners have generally been strong stayers.
Profile: Generally a rating above 80 if raced on the flat is desirable and Our Conor is fine on that score with 84. However, the Triumph is a staying test for a 4yo and most winners have therefore raced over 12f during their flat career. Winning form is irrelevant as it is the impression that they have the stamina to require middle distances that suits their transferral to a Triumph test (Zarkandar 12-15f; Zaynar 11-14f; Celestial Halo 10-15f…). Our Conor did not get beyond 9f (after a 19L defeat over 10f on debut) and his defeats over 8f and 9f on deep ground did not have the imprint of stamina on them.
So a pass, unless they crawl early which is unlikely.
Rolling Star does have the middle distance flat profile with form at 11-13f. Like the stable's previous winner Soldatino (won Adonis only start), Rolling Star has won a hurdles race over 18f in France. The form of his only run is more solid and interlocked with Irish Saint whom he beat very snugly with speed and stamina winning the Adonis. Henderson won the race in '09 & '10 and the (joint)owner Michael Buckley generally buys well. If they are satisfied with just the one run it is probably a hint worth noting.
In contrast to Rolling Star's stealthy build-up, FAR WEST has taken the season by the scruff of the neck and won't let go, winning four times on soft and heavy ground. He raced once in France finishing third in a valuable 15f 3yo hurdle. Perhaps unusually for a Triumph contender he has already done everything you would want in a leading contender and some things you perhaps wouldn't, but regardless has won every time, impressively.
On debut Handazan's reputation saw that one go off evens favourite but he was dismantled by 12L in straightforward fashion. On his second start, as with his first, Far West was prominent and alternated the lead. Vasco Du Ronceray was keen early (as he would be later in the Adonis) but travelled well and Far West was first of the bridle as the duo pulled clear. Here Far West showed he can race strongly behind the bridle as he never lost momentum and urged on he galloped away strongly up the hill to win by 7L. It is no doubt the case that VDR enjoyed the conditions of the Adonis (Good ground, flat track) much more than here (Soft ground, stiff finish) and that physically he would have been much more prepared then than here, in November, against a street-wise rival. Yet also that should not detract from the qualities Far West displayed, nor the fact that both horse were running in a recognised early season Triumph Hurdle trial.
Of some interest is that the next recognised trial for the race came at the showcase Cheltenham Open meeting in December, where only three runners turned up, only two of them with a chance and they had already met. This time Far West's dominance over Handazan increased to 19L but whereas the form is irrelevant the style of it was not. Whether feeling the effects of his season, his race four weeks ago or the much deeper ground, Far West seemed to be a bit 'stuck' in the mud as he galloped behind Handazan for most of the way. He din't look comfortable at any rate and going towards the top of the hill he was being niggled and shaken up a bit. However after free-wheeling down the hill and racing he snapped back on the bridle to move effortlessly clear without letting up. From his race against VDR and here, it suggests that Far West relishes the racing part of racing and moves best when asked to increase his speed and application.
His prep run came in a four runner affair at Ascot receiving 9lbs from River Maigue. Given the above characteristics and the fact that this race stopped to a walk at one point after the leader veered off course, a win of any kind would be deemed unlikely despite the weight advantage. It was interesting therefore to see Far West resume the gallop in front moving fluently (soft ground) and after turning into the straight begin to sprint all the way to the line with River Maigue unable to get within a couple of lengths of him. It was another indication that he relishes being asked to 'race proper' and that he doesn't lack for 'speed' despite his evident ability to race behind the bridle with stamina. The one to beat.
Selection: FAR WEST e/w.
{dealing with the three leading contenders only}
Firstly Our Conor:
Unbeaten in three. Seemingly transformed by a switch to hurdles. Prior to the new year he won easily at 8/13 and then less easily in a G3 at 8/11. The runner-up in that contest has subsequently won a G2 in workmanlike fashion.
His claims essentially rest on the form and visual impression of one run, which is not unusual for a Triumph contender. The G1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle is Ireland's best trial for a festival race they almost never win - just one winner this century (trained by Willie Mullins). Our Conor brushed aside two well-regarded Willie Mullins trained rivals to record an emphatic win in stylish fashion, travelling well round the bend into the straight to coast alongside his main rival (Diakali) and bound away from him over the last to break the line a comfortable 5L clear.
This propelled him to the head of the Triumph market with the "most impressive" tag-line and the suggestion that a repeat of that performance would see him win at the festival. But would it? Delving a little deeper he becomes a little less appealing.
Form: He is the best of the Irish without doubt but that is rarely enough as highlighted above. The winner of the trial race he won has finished 2868079022 suggesting if they're good enough they'll win but that they almost never are. A lot was made before the race of the Mullins duo but Diakali had beaten nothing by wide margins in heavy ground at odds on and it is very difficult to know what level he is genuinely at. Blood Cotil ran a lifeless race turning in having previously beaten Stockton Wing about the same distance as had the winner. Corresponding to the visual impression left by Our Conor is also the knowledge that he has had a 'proper race' in soft ground just four weeks before the festival and recovery has to be taken on trust.
Ground: Having raced almost exclusively on soft and heavy ground in his career a change of ground may not bring about a lot of improvement as an isolated variable. The trainer's keenness to express a preference for good ground is likely to do with the turn of foot he has shown to settle his races which would be seen to best advantage on better ground and avoid the prospect of a staying war. This raises the question of whether a strong travelling, speedy type is really the right kind of runner for a Triumph on the stiffer new course where previous winners have generally been strong stayers.
Profile: Generally a rating above 80 if raced on the flat is desirable and Our Conor is fine on that score with 84. However, the Triumph is a staying test for a 4yo and most winners have therefore raced over 12f during their flat career. Winning form is irrelevant as it is the impression that they have the stamina to require middle distances that suits their transferral to a Triumph test (Zarkandar 12-15f; Zaynar 11-14f; Celestial Halo 10-15f…). Our Conor did not get beyond 9f (after a 19L defeat over 10f on debut) and his defeats over 8f and 9f on deep ground did not have the imprint of stamina on them.
So a pass, unless they crawl early which is unlikely.
Rolling Star does have the middle distance flat profile with form at 11-13f. Like the stable's previous winner Soldatino (won Adonis only start), Rolling Star has won a hurdles race over 18f in France. The form of his only run is more solid and interlocked with Irish Saint whom he beat very snugly with speed and stamina winning the Adonis. Henderson won the race in '09 & '10 and the (joint)owner Michael Buckley generally buys well. If they are satisfied with just the one run it is probably a hint worth noting.
In contrast to Rolling Star's stealthy build-up, FAR WEST has taken the season by the scruff of the neck and won't let go, winning four times on soft and heavy ground. He raced once in France finishing third in a valuable 15f 3yo hurdle. Perhaps unusually for a Triumph contender he has already done everything you would want in a leading contender and some things you perhaps wouldn't, but regardless has won every time, impressively.
On debut Handazan's reputation saw that one go off evens favourite but he was dismantled by 12L in straightforward fashion. On his second start, as with his first, Far West was prominent and alternated the lead. Vasco Du Ronceray was keen early (as he would be later in the Adonis) but travelled well and Far West was first of the bridle as the duo pulled clear. Here Far West showed he can race strongly behind the bridle as he never lost momentum and urged on he galloped away strongly up the hill to win by 7L. It is no doubt the case that VDR enjoyed the conditions of the Adonis (Good ground, flat track) much more than here (Soft ground, stiff finish) and that physically he would have been much more prepared then than here, in November, against a street-wise rival. Yet also that should not detract from the qualities Far West displayed, nor the fact that both horse were running in a recognised early season Triumph Hurdle trial.
Of some interest is that the next recognised trial for the race came at the showcase Cheltenham Open meeting in December, where only three runners turned up, only two of them with a chance and they had already met. This time Far West's dominance over Handazan increased to 19L but whereas the form is irrelevant the style of it was not. Whether feeling the effects of his season, his race four weeks ago or the much deeper ground, Far West seemed to be a bit 'stuck' in the mud as he galloped behind Handazan for most of the way. He din't look comfortable at any rate and going towards the top of the hill he was being niggled and shaken up a bit. However after free-wheeling down the hill and racing he snapped back on the bridle to move effortlessly clear without letting up. From his race against VDR and here, it suggests that Far West relishes the racing part of racing and moves best when asked to increase his speed and application.
His prep run came in a four runner affair at Ascot receiving 9lbs from River Maigue. Given the above characteristics and the fact that this race stopped to a walk at one point after the leader veered off course, a win of any kind would be deemed unlikely despite the weight advantage. It was interesting therefore to see Far West resume the gallop in front moving fluently (soft ground) and after turning into the straight begin to sprint all the way to the line with River Maigue unable to get within a couple of lengths of him. It was another indication that he relishes being asked to 'race proper' and that he doesn't lack for 'speed' despite his evident ability to race behind the bridle with stamina. The one to beat.
Selection: FAR WEST e/w.
2013 Supreme Novices Hurdle - Raceday Thoughts
* Assumed ground is g/s.
The Opener. The Supreme Novices Hurdle is perhaps the hardest race to resist, signalling as it does the prelude to the feast. Yet for many the draw towards what is apparently the most obvious leads to famine: favourites occupy the position of 'best novice' based on nearly a full season's workings yet the reality that form and ratings are often almost completely irrelevant in this race can be hard to digest.
Understanding that irrelevance is not particularly difficult but it doesn't make for particularly appetising discussion and so the usual protocol is still observed. The best, most impressive looking horse with the best form has the best chance yet we need only look back to the past two renewals to understand the workings of the riddle. Pertinent parts only: Al Ferof fell on his hurdles debut and was then beaten 10L in the Challow Hurdle. Turning the new year all discussion at that stage would conclude how inconceivable and unlikely a challenger he was let alone the winner. A facile low-class win in January and repeated in February, however, gave him his profile but even then there was no form and striking visuals to feed on. It was all much more under the radar as attention was focused primarily on the trio of scintillating talent that he would eventually defeat. The clues to Al Ferof came late, therefore, with his trainer later confirming that he "only had him right" very late on. Cinders and Ashes was also beaten on debut but won everything else easily. Doing it on heavy ground (in the build-up) in uncompetitive small-runner affairs sent him in under the radar - what was there to discuss after all? It is trickery and slight of hand, it is often concealment and home assessments: the Supreme is about being just that on the day, but not before, creating the riddle that what goes before is mostly irrelevant in conventional terms. Just as hugely talented novices with few starts - some with extremely high-class ability for future seasons - encourage that overall perception so they can also prove that races are always flexible and never set in any one pattern. Interestingly, leaving our historically questionable favourite aside, three of the next front four in the betting have already revealed their talent, concealing very little at all.
Jezki is trained by the same stable that produced 13/2 shot Steps To Freedom for the same festival race off the back of a four month break. Jezki is 2 from 3 in bumpers and 4 from 4 over hurdles, including two wins at G1 level in Ireland, the Royal Bond and the Future Novices Hurdle. In the Royal Bond he beat the Festival Bumper winner Champagne Fever in a close finish, asserting late on but was perhaps most impressive visually when beating Waaheb last time out by 6L, travelling well and surging clear after the last to score decisively. The win over Champagne Fever is significant because Jezki finished 12L 8th to that rival in the Festival Bumper at Cheltenham in March but over hurdles was clearly able to turn that form around. He has therefore clearly improved for the switch to jumping hurdles. Jezki clearly handles soft ground well and has raced exclusively this season on that surface, four times over hurdles and once first time out for his flat race warm up. He raced on goodish ground for his two bumper wins but was well beaten on good ground in the Festival Bumper. In that race Champagne Fever set a strong gallop and maintained it. Jezki travelled ok and moved from around 12th to around 6th but got taken off the bridle before the bend and could never make significant progress after before fading from the 2nd rank into 8th. It seems that the stable were not sure about the ability of their horse. They got him ready very early for this season (October 10) and with the horse responding well to racing they have 'made hay' as it were winning four on the bounce. As mentioned earlier however, it has to be a major concern that the stable were even thinking of resting the horse completely until March after the performance of Steps To Freedom (14th SP 13/2) in last year's Supreme Novices. That that plan was then confirmed has to be a huge concern once again.
Another to not take in what has most often proved to be an essential preparation race is Dodging Bullets. He was fourth in the 2012 Triumph Hurdle and third in the 2012 Christmas Hurdle this season 16f, Heavy). He has won 2 of his 6 starts over hurdles but neither of those came in his first season over hurdles where he was beaten three times. He has since won twice on good to soft ground. He is a flat bred that lost his first seven flat starts, winning his final two. Dodging Bullets carries an unusual profile in that he ran in the Triumph Hurdle in his first novice season, which ended without a victory. He now tries this race. Whilst Dodging Bullets has clear ability what is less clear is how curved his progression is, if at all. Still, he has proven himself over track, trip and likely ground when winning the G2 Sharp Novices Hurdle in November (although caution is required as the last six winners of that race finished 090040 - Steps To Freedom the last representative finishing 14th in 2012). On his final flat start Dodging Bullets gave Hisaabaat 7lbs and beat him half a length by outstaying him over 10f. Over hurdles seven months later Hisaabaat (2nd) beat Dodging Bullets (4th) 4L off levels in the Triumph, outstaying him. Hisaabaat most likely lacks the residual class of Dodging Bullets and in this respect we can accord the latter a tangible amount of progression - he came out bouncing to win two and finish third in a recognised Champion Hurdle trial (whereas Hisaabaat regressed). In the latter of his two wins (the first was a formality) he beat River Maigue 1.5L again "staying on gamely" and giving that rival 7lbs. That was, however, River Maigue's debut over hurdles and that rival has since showed likeable progression on his next two starts. Nonetheless, Dodging Bullets does present something of a riddle. He has beaten one of his main rivals giving him 7lbs; he has finished 4th in a Triumph hurdle; he has finished third in a G1 Christmas Hurdle on unsuitable ground; he is officially rated 156; he is housed in one of the powerhouse stables and is their number one contender for the race. Why, then, is he not favourite nor even close to it? It is perhaps fair to assess Dodging Bullets so far as a horse that has had numerous chances to showcase elite level novice ability but having failed to do so he becomes to look anchored and a touch exposed in a race where form in the book matters little, sometimes not at all. The answer to the riddle may be that Dodging Bullets is extremely game, honest and durable - he tries like mad - with the ability to finish in the first five. He lacks a turn of foot but can use his mental strength to stay on with effect in his races and he will likely require a strong pace throughout (not always guaranteed) to show his best. Although connections are probably happy with the physical readiness of their horse it is again concerning that he has not been sighted in readiness for another very tough assignment, particularly with a trainer who is unafraid to race his horses.
One horse that has been running consistently, showcasing his wellbeing and ability in the process, is Melodic Rendezvous. Winner of the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle (17f, Heavy) he has won 2 of his 3 starts over hurdles, both on heavy ground, with the same deep underfoot conditions evident for his 7L second to Champagne Fever at Punchestown last season. He was beaten on his hurdles debut at Exeter by the cruising Mr Mole (good to soft). That Melodic Rendezvous has yet to race beyond 17f is perhaps surprising given the pre-season feelings of connections that two and a half miles would be the horse's optimum at this stage. This was perhaps reinforced at Exeter where he was beaten by a slicker, quicker rival. At Exeter he was prominent along the home stretch just behind the leader and in front of Mr Mole but the latter cruised past him causing Melodic Rendezvous to switch around his rear as he couldn't go with him. Stamina and no lack of determination seemed to be dragging him along and although a jink and a bump from Mr Mole didn't help his momentum over the last he wasn't going forward in a hurry. Tactically at Cheltenham on his second start they were in no rush to be prominent as he was held up the whole way before smoothly making ground to be ahead of a tightly bunched cluster of horses over the last where he stayed on powerfully up the hill, chased home by Royal Boy who he would then crush in the Tolworth. One thing worth noting was over some hurdles he went up, over and kind of clamped his front end down, making it a slower process than ideal getting away front the hurdle. The Tolworth hurdle is usually the preserve of more staying types with the notable exception in this context being Noland in 2006 (won the Supreme). More prominent than at Cheltenham, he took a little while to close up on the leader after that one injected a final kick to the last flight. He grabbed the ground to move alongside and fractionally ahead for a while before forging on late to score decisively. We can see that Melodic Rendezvous is progressing with racing. He has his final preparation race at Exeter again on deep ground but it was little more than racecourse sharpness as his rival (Puffin Billy) had a physical problem. His attitude is admirable and he has given his all to the line in each of his four races this season, suggesting mental strength. At times on deep ground he has given the impression at times in these races of travelling sweetly but on the whole it is worth noting that he has as yet been unable to really outspeed a rival at any point. It is unwise, perhaps, to reach to a conclusion about his likely ability to display pace on better ground and it can be recalled only recently how a more staying type in Al Ferof benefitted from a pace war in a Supreme; he likely lacks the residual class of that horse, however.
Un Atout certainly has that concealed profile. Unbeaten in one bumper and both starts over hurdles, all three races of his contests have been on heavy ground. There was an eleven month gap between his sole bumper win (January 2012) and his hurdles debut (December 2012). Described pre-season as a "lovely big horse" by his trainer Un Atout presents us with the ultimate under-the-radar profile. Raced only twice, only on heavy ground and in weak contests he has outclassed his rivals at times on looks alone: he does indeed have a size about him and it is perhaps here where we can caution the 'could-be-anything' tag. Raw, immature, a future staying chaser; he also raps the top of his hurdles quite often. Granted, his paper profile tilts towards that which so often underlines the winner of this contest but it is perhaps worth displaying the patience of his connections to date when assessing his chance of a toe-to-toe, helter skelter Supreme on better ground at a stride quicker than so far. Nonetheless he has run this calendar year, he has been winning effortlessly, he is from the leading Irish stable and he remains prominent in the market despite multiple entries. A real Supreme profile.
As has River Maigue. He has won one of his three starts over hurdles, on heavy ground. He was second to Dodging Bullets (gave 7lbs) after pulling/being keen and staying on in second having been outpaced by the winner at a key stage on debut over hurdles. His win came at Kempton beating the younger New Year's Eve (debut) easily by 7L. He then went up against a big player in the Triumph Hurdle, Far West, in a messy, unsatisfactory four runner affair where he was outsprinted trying to give 9lbs and a start to his talented rival. He travels well in his races and although he is often keen early on he has displayed the ability to finish off his races quite strongly. It appears that he ranks quite highly in the pecking order of novice hurdlers within his powerful stable. He was perhaps caught out by a much more streetwise and professional racehorse on his first and third runs and despite having to race off level weights when meeting Dodging Bullets again it is possible he can finish in front of that rival if his progression matches his potential at this early stage of his career. His trainer has stated that he copes well with a lot of work at home indicating mental as well as physical strength and with a low-key build-up to the race he looks set fair to unleash his true potential on the day that matters most. What may hinder his win chance is the presence in the race of a potential superstar.
Concealed very well until the Betfair Hurdle MY TENT OR YOURS produced a quite staggering performance in open handicap company to shatter the radars and he will now put the ultimate form profile to the test, more so than his similarly-owned predecessors. Runner-up to The New One in the 2012 G2 Aintree Bumper, he has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles on good to soft and soft ground. In three bumper and four hurdles starts he is yet to finish outside the top two places. My Tent Or Yours' first run over hurdles was notable in that he beat the future (and easy) G1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin Du Seuil by nearly 2L in receipt of 5lbs. On his next start he was beaten by stablemate Chatterbox on heavy ground that his jockey reported he failed to handle. His third race was so deeply impressive that he was propelled to the front of the betting for the prestigious Betfair Hurdle, a path trodden by the similarly owned horses Get Me Out Of Here (Won Betfair, Second in Supreme) and Darlan (Fell Betfair, Second in Supreme). What stamps My Tent Or Yours as potentially one of the most exciting novice hurdlers of the season is the sheer power with which he moves through his races, in part reminiscent of Sprinter Sacre, particularly over fences. As that reference indicates, however, this could also be a key weakness when assessing his chance in a Supreme Novices Hurdle (Sprinter Sacre finished third in a high class renewal). By not using his energy reserves efficiently he may 'tank' (jockey's descriptions of his keenness) to the front but be unable to sustain a run to the line at the required speed. Against that, he does not throw his head around or 'refuse' to settle which is the biggest concern in a talented horse (much like Sanctuaire over hurdles). The power displayed in his races suggests possible progression to G1 elite level races in open company in the future but the question is can he run an even enough race to ensure his movement through the gears bears fruit in a Supreme. What his run in the Betfair Hurdle revealed was nothing other than that which would have been seen for the first time on the day itself. As a run prior to the Supreme it demonstrated a number of things: i) a level of ability (OR 162) that would give him place claims in the Champion Hurdle; ii) a much different profile to other short-priced Supreme Novices favourites; iii) a running style even in top handicap company of tremendous power which distinguishes him from the lighter framed, flashier types that are more susceptible to the demands of a festival race; and iv) that whatever his level now he can handle a big-field and should improve on his Betfair run given a faster pace and better ground. My Tent Or Yours would have been around second favourite for the Champion Hurdle and could well be occupy that position for next years renewal of that race. No other horse in this race comes close to suggesting such potential.
Selections: MY TENT OR YOURS (win) & River Maigue e/w.
The Opener. The Supreme Novices Hurdle is perhaps the hardest race to resist, signalling as it does the prelude to the feast. Yet for many the draw towards what is apparently the most obvious leads to famine: favourites occupy the position of 'best novice' based on nearly a full season's workings yet the reality that form and ratings are often almost completely irrelevant in this race can be hard to digest.
Understanding that irrelevance is not particularly difficult but it doesn't make for particularly appetising discussion and so the usual protocol is still observed. The best, most impressive looking horse with the best form has the best chance yet we need only look back to the past two renewals to understand the workings of the riddle. Pertinent parts only: Al Ferof fell on his hurdles debut and was then beaten 10L in the Challow Hurdle. Turning the new year all discussion at that stage would conclude how inconceivable and unlikely a challenger he was let alone the winner. A facile low-class win in January and repeated in February, however, gave him his profile but even then there was no form and striking visuals to feed on. It was all much more under the radar as attention was focused primarily on the trio of scintillating talent that he would eventually defeat. The clues to Al Ferof came late, therefore, with his trainer later confirming that he "only had him right" very late on. Cinders and Ashes was also beaten on debut but won everything else easily. Doing it on heavy ground (in the build-up) in uncompetitive small-runner affairs sent him in under the radar - what was there to discuss after all? It is trickery and slight of hand, it is often concealment and home assessments: the Supreme is about being just that on the day, but not before, creating the riddle that what goes before is mostly irrelevant in conventional terms. Just as hugely talented novices with few starts - some with extremely high-class ability for future seasons - encourage that overall perception so they can also prove that races are always flexible and never set in any one pattern. Interestingly, leaving our historically questionable favourite aside, three of the next front four in the betting have already revealed their talent, concealing very little at all.
Jezki is trained by the same stable that produced 13/2 shot Steps To Freedom for the same festival race off the back of a four month break. Jezki is 2 from 3 in bumpers and 4 from 4 over hurdles, including two wins at G1 level in Ireland, the Royal Bond and the Future Novices Hurdle. In the Royal Bond he beat the Festival Bumper winner Champagne Fever in a close finish, asserting late on but was perhaps most impressive visually when beating Waaheb last time out by 6L, travelling well and surging clear after the last to score decisively. The win over Champagne Fever is significant because Jezki finished 12L 8th to that rival in the Festival Bumper at Cheltenham in March but over hurdles was clearly able to turn that form around. He has therefore clearly improved for the switch to jumping hurdles. Jezki clearly handles soft ground well and has raced exclusively this season on that surface, four times over hurdles and once first time out for his flat race warm up. He raced on goodish ground for his two bumper wins but was well beaten on good ground in the Festival Bumper. In that race Champagne Fever set a strong gallop and maintained it. Jezki travelled ok and moved from around 12th to around 6th but got taken off the bridle before the bend and could never make significant progress after before fading from the 2nd rank into 8th. It seems that the stable were not sure about the ability of their horse. They got him ready very early for this season (October 10) and with the horse responding well to racing they have 'made hay' as it were winning four on the bounce. As mentioned earlier however, it has to be a major concern that the stable were even thinking of resting the horse completely until March after the performance of Steps To Freedom (14th SP 13/2) in last year's Supreme Novices. That that plan was then confirmed has to be a huge concern once again.
Another to not take in what has most often proved to be an essential preparation race is Dodging Bullets. He was fourth in the 2012 Triumph Hurdle and third in the 2012 Christmas Hurdle this season 16f, Heavy). He has won 2 of his 6 starts over hurdles but neither of those came in his first season over hurdles where he was beaten three times. He has since won twice on good to soft ground. He is a flat bred that lost his first seven flat starts, winning his final two. Dodging Bullets carries an unusual profile in that he ran in the Triumph Hurdle in his first novice season, which ended without a victory. He now tries this race. Whilst Dodging Bullets has clear ability what is less clear is how curved his progression is, if at all. Still, he has proven himself over track, trip and likely ground when winning the G2 Sharp Novices Hurdle in November (although caution is required as the last six winners of that race finished 090040 - Steps To Freedom the last representative finishing 14th in 2012). On his final flat start Dodging Bullets gave Hisaabaat 7lbs and beat him half a length by outstaying him over 10f. Over hurdles seven months later Hisaabaat (2nd) beat Dodging Bullets (4th) 4L off levels in the Triumph, outstaying him. Hisaabaat most likely lacks the residual class of Dodging Bullets and in this respect we can accord the latter a tangible amount of progression - he came out bouncing to win two and finish third in a recognised Champion Hurdle trial (whereas Hisaabaat regressed). In the latter of his two wins (the first was a formality) he beat River Maigue 1.5L again "staying on gamely" and giving that rival 7lbs. That was, however, River Maigue's debut over hurdles and that rival has since showed likeable progression on his next two starts. Nonetheless, Dodging Bullets does present something of a riddle. He has beaten one of his main rivals giving him 7lbs; he has finished 4th in a Triumph hurdle; he has finished third in a G1 Christmas Hurdle on unsuitable ground; he is officially rated 156; he is housed in one of the powerhouse stables and is their number one contender for the race. Why, then, is he not favourite nor even close to it? It is perhaps fair to assess Dodging Bullets so far as a horse that has had numerous chances to showcase elite level novice ability but having failed to do so he becomes to look anchored and a touch exposed in a race where form in the book matters little, sometimes not at all. The answer to the riddle may be that Dodging Bullets is extremely game, honest and durable - he tries like mad - with the ability to finish in the first five. He lacks a turn of foot but can use his mental strength to stay on with effect in his races and he will likely require a strong pace throughout (not always guaranteed) to show his best. Although connections are probably happy with the physical readiness of their horse it is again concerning that he has not been sighted in readiness for another very tough assignment, particularly with a trainer who is unafraid to race his horses.
One horse that has been running consistently, showcasing his wellbeing and ability in the process, is Melodic Rendezvous. Winner of the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle (17f, Heavy) he has won 2 of his 3 starts over hurdles, both on heavy ground, with the same deep underfoot conditions evident for his 7L second to Champagne Fever at Punchestown last season. He was beaten on his hurdles debut at Exeter by the cruising Mr Mole (good to soft). That Melodic Rendezvous has yet to race beyond 17f is perhaps surprising given the pre-season feelings of connections that two and a half miles would be the horse's optimum at this stage. This was perhaps reinforced at Exeter where he was beaten by a slicker, quicker rival. At Exeter he was prominent along the home stretch just behind the leader and in front of Mr Mole but the latter cruised past him causing Melodic Rendezvous to switch around his rear as he couldn't go with him. Stamina and no lack of determination seemed to be dragging him along and although a jink and a bump from Mr Mole didn't help his momentum over the last he wasn't going forward in a hurry. Tactically at Cheltenham on his second start they were in no rush to be prominent as he was held up the whole way before smoothly making ground to be ahead of a tightly bunched cluster of horses over the last where he stayed on powerfully up the hill, chased home by Royal Boy who he would then crush in the Tolworth. One thing worth noting was over some hurdles he went up, over and kind of clamped his front end down, making it a slower process than ideal getting away front the hurdle. The Tolworth hurdle is usually the preserve of more staying types with the notable exception in this context being Noland in 2006 (won the Supreme). More prominent than at Cheltenham, he took a little while to close up on the leader after that one injected a final kick to the last flight. He grabbed the ground to move alongside and fractionally ahead for a while before forging on late to score decisively. We can see that Melodic Rendezvous is progressing with racing. He has his final preparation race at Exeter again on deep ground but it was little more than racecourse sharpness as his rival (Puffin Billy) had a physical problem. His attitude is admirable and he has given his all to the line in each of his four races this season, suggesting mental strength. At times on deep ground he has given the impression at times in these races of travelling sweetly but on the whole it is worth noting that he has as yet been unable to really outspeed a rival at any point. It is unwise, perhaps, to reach to a conclusion about his likely ability to display pace on better ground and it can be recalled only recently how a more staying type in Al Ferof benefitted from a pace war in a Supreme; he likely lacks the residual class of that horse, however.
Un Atout certainly has that concealed profile. Unbeaten in one bumper and both starts over hurdles, all three races of his contests have been on heavy ground. There was an eleven month gap between his sole bumper win (January 2012) and his hurdles debut (December 2012). Described pre-season as a "lovely big horse" by his trainer Un Atout presents us with the ultimate under-the-radar profile. Raced only twice, only on heavy ground and in weak contests he has outclassed his rivals at times on looks alone: he does indeed have a size about him and it is perhaps here where we can caution the 'could-be-anything' tag. Raw, immature, a future staying chaser; he also raps the top of his hurdles quite often. Granted, his paper profile tilts towards that which so often underlines the winner of this contest but it is perhaps worth displaying the patience of his connections to date when assessing his chance of a toe-to-toe, helter skelter Supreme on better ground at a stride quicker than so far. Nonetheless he has run this calendar year, he has been winning effortlessly, he is from the leading Irish stable and he remains prominent in the market despite multiple entries. A real Supreme profile.
As has River Maigue. He has won one of his three starts over hurdles, on heavy ground. He was second to Dodging Bullets (gave 7lbs) after pulling/being keen and staying on in second having been outpaced by the winner at a key stage on debut over hurdles. His win came at Kempton beating the younger New Year's Eve (debut) easily by 7L. He then went up against a big player in the Triumph Hurdle, Far West, in a messy, unsatisfactory four runner affair where he was outsprinted trying to give 9lbs and a start to his talented rival. He travels well in his races and although he is often keen early on he has displayed the ability to finish off his races quite strongly. It appears that he ranks quite highly in the pecking order of novice hurdlers within his powerful stable. He was perhaps caught out by a much more streetwise and professional racehorse on his first and third runs and despite having to race off level weights when meeting Dodging Bullets again it is possible he can finish in front of that rival if his progression matches his potential at this early stage of his career. His trainer has stated that he copes well with a lot of work at home indicating mental as well as physical strength and with a low-key build-up to the race he looks set fair to unleash his true potential on the day that matters most. What may hinder his win chance is the presence in the race of a potential superstar.
Concealed very well until the Betfair Hurdle MY TENT OR YOURS produced a quite staggering performance in open handicap company to shatter the radars and he will now put the ultimate form profile to the test, more so than his similarly-owned predecessors. Runner-up to The New One in the 2012 G2 Aintree Bumper, he has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles on good to soft and soft ground. In three bumper and four hurdles starts he is yet to finish outside the top two places. My Tent Or Yours' first run over hurdles was notable in that he beat the future (and easy) G1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin Du Seuil by nearly 2L in receipt of 5lbs. On his next start he was beaten by stablemate Chatterbox on heavy ground that his jockey reported he failed to handle. His third race was so deeply impressive that he was propelled to the front of the betting for the prestigious Betfair Hurdle, a path trodden by the similarly owned horses Get Me Out Of Here (Won Betfair, Second in Supreme) and Darlan (Fell Betfair, Second in Supreme). What stamps My Tent Or Yours as potentially one of the most exciting novice hurdlers of the season is the sheer power with which he moves through his races, in part reminiscent of Sprinter Sacre, particularly over fences. As that reference indicates, however, this could also be a key weakness when assessing his chance in a Supreme Novices Hurdle (Sprinter Sacre finished third in a high class renewal). By not using his energy reserves efficiently he may 'tank' (jockey's descriptions of his keenness) to the front but be unable to sustain a run to the line at the required speed. Against that, he does not throw his head around or 'refuse' to settle which is the biggest concern in a talented horse (much like Sanctuaire over hurdles). The power displayed in his races suggests possible progression to G1 elite level races in open company in the future but the question is can he run an even enough race to ensure his movement through the gears bears fruit in a Supreme. What his run in the Betfair Hurdle revealed was nothing other than that which would have been seen for the first time on the day itself. As a run prior to the Supreme it demonstrated a number of things: i) a level of ability (OR 162) that would give him place claims in the Champion Hurdle; ii) a much different profile to other short-priced Supreme Novices favourites; iii) a running style even in top handicap company of tremendous power which distinguishes him from the lighter framed, flashier types that are more susceptible to the demands of a festival race; and iv) that whatever his level now he can handle a big-field and should improve on his Betfair run given a faster pace and better ground. My Tent Or Yours would have been around second favourite for the Champion Hurdle and could well be occupy that position for next years renewal of that race. No other horse in this race comes close to suggesting such potential.
Selections: MY TENT OR YOURS (win) & River Maigue e/w.
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