This race has little historicity. It is therefore one that requires a great deal of caution. As a race for novices with an intermediate distance, in some cases it can be difficult to assess the physicality, mentality and stage of progression of the runners. Nonetheless, as a Grade One event at the Festival we are looking for a potentially elite horse with an even distribution of energy, a purposeful preparation and a touch of residual class. In no particular order at this stage:
Oscar Whisky's physicality has already been discussed here, in relation to the physical characteristics needed for a World Hurdle. It is similar in some ways to that of Cue Card, but not the same. As a hurdler, he was high class. His Cheltenham Festival record is admirable, but there are no wins because none of his four attempts were over his specialist distance of 20f, the trip at which he won two Aintree Hurdles. Fourth in a Supreme Novices Hurdle, third in a Champion Hurdle, fifth in a World Hurdle, then pulled up in a World Hurdle. Never a three-mile stayer, his chasing mission has begun two seasons too late but his target race is over the correct distance for his physical attributes.
They are: a high level elite class gallop and an On/Behind bridle ratio that spikes to maximum effect in the middle, but with a gun to his head asking for either raw speed/acceleration or stamina/grind the returns diminish significantly at the top level. His mentality has always been excellent. This is quite a heady mix when sent into a novice sphere against horses with more workmanlike profiles. He has run all three times over fences at Cheltenham, something his trainer has long been reluctant to do with his best novice chasers. Sprinter Sacre and Finian's Rainbow did not visit Cheltenham over fences until their Arkle Chase runs; Grandouet has been set a similar path. Then again with Oscar Whisky his trainer had very little to learn about him, having raced for four seasons over hurdles at all distances and on all ground. His chase runs have revealed little, other than his prospective opponents for this race have had little trouble getting competitive with him. From the front or with a lead, Oscar Whisky races in the same way with his mentality ensuring a fullness of effort. He was beaten by Taquin Du Seuil, then he beat Taquin Du Seuil on a desperate weather day with five fences omitted, and in between he mastered Wonderful Charm by half a length making all. In each case, significantly, Oscar Whisky was allowed or was able to distribute his energy evenly and efficiently, and as a result his performances were in the optimal range. One of the difficult things about Oscar Whisky over fences is understanding what he actually needs, but it is questionable as to whether a big field and goodish ground at a strong Festival pace is ideal. It could just be that his ideal conditions are those that very nearly seen him record a hattrick from this first three attempts, namely small fields with only one main rival to battle and fend off/get past.
But for that half length defeat to Oscar Whisky in December, Wonderful Charm would have racked up a four-timer. He is a potentially talented horse, although the reasons why, having not raced since October, he was sent into a World Hurdle field aged only five are best left to his trainer. He obviously summered well, starting his season in October (last year's winner started in September) and then going on to win the Rising Stars Novices Chase at Wincanton (won previously for the same stable by Silviniaco Conti) and the Grade Two Berkshire Novices Chase at Newbury. He then ran Oscar Whisky close at Cheltenham, so that there is the requisite ability of sorts present is not in doubt.
Ability is not enough. Having completed his four races in the first half of the season, his trainer has stated that he will not run again before the Festival, a gap of three months. Noble Prince (2011) ran in the Grade One Irish Arkle on January 23; Sir Des Champs (2012) ran in a Grade Two at Leopardstown on January 28; and like Noble Prince, Benefficient (2013) ran in the Irish Arkle on January 26. All were Irish-trained, and all had displayed a preference for stamina at some stage in terms of either race distance or run style. Wonderful Charm, too, has run between 20f-22f on each start this season. Highly rated by his stable, he may be a staying chaser in the making but at the moment he perhaps resembles in his run style what Oscar Whisky may have looked like if sent chasing a couple of season ago. Wonderful Charm's On/Behind bridle ratio is very much towards the former. He had a breathing operation after Ruby Walsh reported he didn't feel right in the World Hurdle and this season his performances have been characterised by keenness, travelling notably well on the bridle, and prior to meeting Oscar Whisky outclassing inferior rivals.
This was true at Wincanton where he clattered through the last two fences, ceding lengths to the leader. He was straightened up, gathered in, and responded by picking up again to surge forward and win. This led to post-race comments that suggested 21f was the minimum trip for him but the amount of energy he expends on the bridle does not suggest this at all, at least not for his novice season and the fact that he has not been asked to compete over three miles by his trainer perhaps affirms this view. He can race, for sure, as he proved against Oscar Whisky but in that race he seemed to display very similar physical attributes to his more illustrious rival. His energy distribution in that race seemed more even, more one-paced, probably because Oscar Whisky had the class to stretch him out of his comfort zone and make him race with different attributes. He responded to a more demanding test well but there has to be a concern that a lack of racing for such a long period of time allied to his natural keenness and a more sustained and fierce festival pace will break any finishing effort his bridle ratio can command at this stage in his career. Unlike Oscar Whisky he will still be maturing physically, as he looks to be slightly narrow-chested. Physical growth, a keenness to race, a bridle ratio suggesting most work is done 'on' it and a planned absence from the track may make his task rather difficult in March, for all that he appears to have a lot of natural ability.
Strength: The older Oscar Whisky (right) has more muscular reserves of strength than Wonderful Charm (left) but they were matched closely in ability terms earlier in the season.
Ability is not enough. Having completed his four races in the first half of the season, his trainer has stated that he will not run again before the Festival, a gap of three months. Noble Prince (2011) ran in the Grade One Irish Arkle on January 23; Sir Des Champs (2012) ran in a Grade Two at Leopardstown on January 28; and like Noble Prince, Benefficient (2013) ran in the Irish Arkle on January 26. All were Irish-trained, and all had displayed a preference for stamina at some stage in terms of either race distance or run style. Wonderful Charm, too, has run between 20f-22f on each start this season. Highly rated by his stable, he may be a staying chaser in the making but at the moment he perhaps resembles in his run style what Oscar Whisky may have looked like if sent chasing a couple of season ago. Wonderful Charm's On/Behind bridle ratio is very much towards the former. He had a breathing operation after Ruby Walsh reported he didn't feel right in the World Hurdle and this season his performances have been characterised by keenness, travelling notably well on the bridle, and prior to meeting Oscar Whisky outclassing inferior rivals.
This was true at Wincanton where he clattered through the last two fences, ceding lengths to the leader. He was straightened up, gathered in, and responded by picking up again to surge forward and win. This led to post-race comments that suggested 21f was the minimum trip for him but the amount of energy he expends on the bridle does not suggest this at all, at least not for his novice season and the fact that he has not been asked to compete over three miles by his trainer perhaps affirms this view. He can race, for sure, as he proved against Oscar Whisky but in that race he seemed to display very similar physical attributes to his more illustrious rival. His energy distribution in that race seemed more even, more one-paced, probably because Oscar Whisky had the class to stretch him out of his comfort zone and make him race with different attributes. He responded to a more demanding test well but there has to be a concern that a lack of racing for such a long period of time allied to his natural keenness and a more sustained and fierce festival pace will break any finishing effort his bridle ratio can command at this stage in his career. Unlike Oscar Whisky he will still be maturing physically, as he looks to be slightly narrow-chested. Physical growth, a keenness to race, a bridle ratio suggesting most work is done 'on' it and a planned absence from the track may make his task rather difficult in March, for all that he appears to have a lot of natural ability.
Strength: The older Oscar Whisky (right) has more muscular reserves of strength than Wonderful Charm (left) but they were matched closely in ability terms earlier in the season.
In his novice hurdle season just gone, Taquin Du Seuil won a Grade Two by six lengths on heavy and then the Grade One Challow hurdle by nine lengths on heavy. From that three week period there seems to have sprung a myth that he "loves" or "needs" some real cut in the ground, which he almost certainly does not. Those Graded races were not very competitive and he was easily the best horse in each race, so when he then ran well for a long way but was ultimately well beaten in a fairly hot Neptune Novices Hurdle (won by The New One) on good to soft Festival ground it served to reinforce the general perception of his required ground conditions from the winter. He also made his chase debut on heavy ground at Ffos Las. Yet analytically the ground is not important for him. He does have a slightly peculiar knee lift but he had little problem out-speeding the "fast" Oscar Whisky on good ground at Cheltenham, where he also showed a tractable mentality to be unaffected by the slow-stop-start gallop early in the race. After the race his trainer revealed the Arkle Chase was still under consideration, owing to the speed he displayed at home and presumably by the way in which he bettered Oscar Whisky. True to their word, his next race was in the Grade One Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown over two miles, again on good ground.
This was a no-nonsense fact-finding mission that ended in an 8L defeat and a confirmation that the Jewson is indeed the right race. He got the strong gallop that he most likely thrives upon but this race was notable for its unusual depth: Hinterland and Grandouet were two high class, fast, specialised two milers meeting each other for the second time. Taquin Du Seuil jumped the first two fences well, and was enjoying the early pace too much, pulling his way past Grandouet in third place before settling. The big test came after the first bend as the field started motoring down the back and towards the railway fences. He did well but finally he was bested by the ninth fence, pecking on landing and losing momentum. This brought closer the time he needed to race proper and rounding the final bend he had switched behind the bridle but it was noticeable how well he responded, closing to within three lengths of Hinterland and Grandouet as those two went for everything and scooted clear. Taquin Du Seuil stayed on well to the line, running a fine Jewson trial under the cover of a strong Arkle one.
The Cheltenham re-match with Oscar Whisky, this time on soft ground, produced a similar outcome to their first battle, this time Oscar Whisky narrowly prevailing. But here it was back to a ponderous pace and a race with little intent until it got to the final stages, and it was noticeable how Taquin Du Seuil was ambling at some of his fences, in contradistinction to the helter skelter of Sandown. If we are to assess his optimal conditions then they are those which he has yet to face: 20f, goodish ground, strong gallop from start to finish - much what he can expect to face in March. He has has shown he can handle a variety of challenges and that he himself has more improvement to come, with 16f pace and 20f stamina, allied to tactical speed at the longer distance. A nice blend of physicality. Normal progression permitting, he looks a ready-made Jewson horse.
Across the water, nearly all the talk has fallen on Felix Yonger and Champagne Fever. Discussion of the latter will feature in relation to the Arkle Chase as that is where his level of residual class would be best served. Not unlike his more talented stablemate, Felix Yonger has been subject to any amount of analytical distortion, with many media platforms suggesting he should run in the Arkle Chase, and, furthermore, that he should be the favourite for that contest. The details do not confirm this view, but they should also not take anything away from his own capabilities, which are clearly identifiable. (He is eight years of age, for those adhering to the Steps model of profiling.)
The reason behind the distortion is an old and recurring one: "form". It is one of the most overused and poorly chosen words when discussing elite novice contests. Felix Yonger beat Defy Logic, then beat Trofolium; Defy Logic beat Champagne Fever and Trifolium was second; it follows, mutatis mutandis, that Felix Yonger should and Champagne Fever should not therefore run in the Arkle and given that Champagne Fever was favourite and still is favourite for the race that Felix Yonger should be favourite for the Arkle and Champagne Fever should run in the Jewson. What is his trainer, Willie Mullins, playing at?
That Felix Yonger may run in the Arkle is a possible scenario, of course, but it is unlikely and Felix Yonger's appeal in an Arkle would be limited. What can be seen quite clearly are the different targets of different horses in Ireland. Defy Logic is an Irish winter ground horse. He has talent but it is not of a kind that would see him fair well in a Cheltenham Arkle Chase. His trainer has made specific reference to "the softer the better" for his horse and that his win in the race contested by Champagne Fever was a main target - "delighted to win a Grade One with him" - as no doubt will be the Irish Arkle. In many ways he is reminiscent of the Noel Meade trained Realt Dubh, who had a similarly targeted campaign with an Irish Arkle victory. That horse actually ran with great credit in The Arkle, finishing around 9L third to Captain Chris and Finian's Rainbow. He won again in Punchestown but didn't win another race, his lack of residual class laid bare in open company. Against Felix Yonger, Defy Logic was encountering the quickest ground in his career to date, attempting to make all at a fast pace as usual, only to be picked up late in the contest. What is obvious when watching that race is how Defy Logic was beaten quite early, headed two out from where he was ridden and rousted and visibly tired into a mistake at the last fence. That was not the case against Champagne Fever; they were very different runs owing to different physical stages of his season. Against Felix Yonger he was being geared towards his first Winter target and ran accordingly.
Trifolium's breathing problems have been well documented and this was another opponent that went off fast from the front and was unable to sustain his effort, weakening sharply as a tired horse jumping the last fence. When Champagne Fever made a mistake two from home in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown, Defy Logic was then presented the race with Trifolium, who had been well behind until staying on when his race was over, finishing second. A "perfect form storm" was duly created, but its worth as a reliable analytical tool is low.
Interestingly, the racecourse evidence tells a different story. Not least because just as Felix Yonger was becoming the latest Arkle fashion accessory, he got beat, at Limerick, by his more limited stablemate The Paparrazi Kid. That was over 19f. But instead of asking why he got beaten and what could be learned of his physicality in defeat, rather than victory, the "didn't stay" line was put through the run by those keen to get four steps ahead of his trainer. On the contrary, what can be seen from his Limerick defeat confirms the overall impression of his two victories that he would prefer more of a stamina test on good ground. Ruby Walsh reported how he was close to being taken off his feet by Trifolium. If that is so, then Champagne Fever (and Defy Logic) would have had Felix Yonger in a great deal of trouble had he tried to chase them in their Grade One race, and with no prisoners taken in an Arkle, Hinterland and Grandouet have already shown the trouble a 20f horse can get into against them. At Limerick Felix Yonger was able to move more within his comfort zone and in so doing was happy to 'flick' across the surface with his right front leg, suggesting good ground would be more than welcome (his best run over hurdles was his 7L second to Simonsig in the Neptune Novices Hurdle at the Festival on good ground). Having moved through the race okay, if a little wide, his best moments came when racing behind the bridle as a couple of moderate jumps left him with a number of lengths to find on the eventual winner, which he set about hunting down with relish, unsuccessfully, suggesting that there is more to come over slightly further distances. The overriding impression is that Felix Yonger is an eight year old coming into a competitive novice chase arena after a year off the track. He has probably surprised his handlers a little with his exuberance as much as with his early season ability, but Limerick perhaps hinted at a plateau and the task ahead is to condition him for a Jewson Novices Chase that will test his ability to both hang onto a fast pace and see the race out at the other end.
In terms of raw ability there may not be too much between these key four runners, suggesting even more reason to pay attention to specific aspects of their physicality and mentality in the coming weeks.
Trifolium's breathing problems have been well documented and this was another opponent that went off fast from the front and was unable to sustain his effort, weakening sharply as a tired horse jumping the last fence. When Champagne Fever made a mistake two from home in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown, Defy Logic was then presented the race with Trifolium, who had been well behind until staying on when his race was over, finishing second. A "perfect form storm" was duly created, but its worth as a reliable analytical tool is low.
Interestingly, the racecourse evidence tells a different story. Not least because just as Felix Yonger was becoming the latest Arkle fashion accessory, he got beat, at Limerick, by his more limited stablemate The Paparrazi Kid. That was over 19f. But instead of asking why he got beaten and what could be learned of his physicality in defeat, rather than victory, the "didn't stay" line was put through the run by those keen to get four steps ahead of his trainer. On the contrary, what can be seen from his Limerick defeat confirms the overall impression of his two victories that he would prefer more of a stamina test on good ground. Ruby Walsh reported how he was close to being taken off his feet by Trifolium. If that is so, then Champagne Fever (and Defy Logic) would have had Felix Yonger in a great deal of trouble had he tried to chase them in their Grade One race, and with no prisoners taken in an Arkle, Hinterland and Grandouet have already shown the trouble a 20f horse can get into against them. At Limerick Felix Yonger was able to move more within his comfort zone and in so doing was happy to 'flick' across the surface with his right front leg, suggesting good ground would be more than welcome (his best run over hurdles was his 7L second to Simonsig in the Neptune Novices Hurdle at the Festival on good ground). Having moved through the race okay, if a little wide, his best moments came when racing behind the bridle as a couple of moderate jumps left him with a number of lengths to find on the eventual winner, which he set about hunting down with relish, unsuccessfully, suggesting that there is more to come over slightly further distances. The overriding impression is that Felix Yonger is an eight year old coming into a competitive novice chase arena after a year off the track. He has probably surprised his handlers a little with his exuberance as much as with his early season ability, but Limerick perhaps hinted at a plateau and the task ahead is to condition him for a Jewson Novices Chase that will test his ability to both hang onto a fast pace and see the race out at the other end.
In terms of raw ability there may not be too much between these key four runners, suggesting even more reason to pay attention to specific aspects of their physicality and mentality in the coming weeks.
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