Jezki is trained by the same stable that produced 13/2 shot Steps
To Freedom for the same festival race off the back of a four-month
break from racing. Jezki is 2 from 3 in bumpers and 4 from 4 over
hurdles, including two wins at G1 level in Ireland, the Royal Bond and
the Future Novices Hurdle. In the Royal Bond he beat the Festival Bumper
winner Champagne Fever in a close finish, asserting late on but was
perhaps most impressive visually when beating Waaheb last time out by
6L, travelling well and surging clear after the last to score
decisively.
The win over Champagne Fever is significant because Jezki finished 12L
8th to that rival in the Festival Bumper at Cheltenham in March but over
hurdles was clearly able to turn that form around. He has therefore
clearly improved for the switch to jumping hurdles. In terms of form
this is quite strong form but it is worth noting that the horse that
finished 1.5L second to Champagne Fever in the Festival Bumper, New
Year's Eve, was dispatched easily by 7L by The Henderson trained River
Maigue although it was NYE's debut over hurdles.
The form of his win last time out also appears solid with the well
regarded Waaheb running well in second and the third having recorded a
victory over the exciting Ned Buntline. Jezki clearly handles soft
ground well and has raced exclusively this season on this surface, 4
times over hurdles and once first time out for his flat race warm up. He
raced on goodish ground for his 2 bumper wins but was well beaten on
good ground in the Festival Bumper. In that race Champagne Fever set a
strong gallop and maintained it. Jezki travelled ok and moved from
around 12th to around 6th but got taken off the bridle before the bend
and could never make significant progress after before fading from the
2nd rank into 8th.
It seems to me that the stable were not sure about the ability of their
horse. They got him ready very early for this season (October 10) and
with the horse responding well to racing they have 'made hay' as it were
winning four on the bounce. As mentioned earlier however, it has to be a
major concern that the stable were even thinking of resting the horse
completely until March after the performance of Steps To Freedom (14th
SP 13/2) in last year's Supreme Novices. Equally, the Supreme is most
often a race that requires a recent run to confirm well-being but more
so it is a race where a lot of the time the winner is kept either under
wraps for the season or on a constant low-boil even if winning, with 2-4
season runs the norm. Jezki has had 4 runs already all on soft ground
and we are still to see the New Year. A fifth run has been mentioned
also and at this stage it would make sense to wait and see how Jezki
performs in his next race before considering him a major player for the
Supreme, as if he fails to make the track before March he will make
almost no appeal at all. His potential rivals are all biding their time
and keeping their hands much closer to their chests.
Dodging Bullets
Fourth in the 2012 Triumph Hurdle and third in the 2012 Christmas Hurdle
(heavy). He has won 2 of his 6 starts over hurdles but neither of those
came in his first season over hurdles where he was beaten three times.
He has since won twice on good to soft ground. He is a flat bred that
lost his first seven flat starts, winning his final two.
Dodging Bullets carries an unusual profile in that he ran in the Triumph
Hurdle in his first novice season, which ended without a victory. He
now tries this race. Whilst Dodging Bullets has clear ability what is
less clear is how curved his progression is, if at all. Still, he has
proven himself over track, trip and likely ground when winning the G2
Sharp Novices Hurdle in November (although caution is required as the
last six winners of that race finished 090040 - Steps To Freedom the
last representative finishing 14th in 2012).
On his final flat start Dodging Bullets gave Hisaabaat 7lbs and beat him
half a length by outstaying him over 10f. Over hurdles seven months
later Hisaabaat (2nd) beat Dodging Bullets (4th) 4L off levels in the
Triumph, outstaying him. Hisaabaat most likely lacks the residual class
of Dodging Bullets and in this respect we can accord the latter a
tangible amount of progression - he came out bouncing to win two and
finish third in a recognised Champion Hurdle trial (whereas Hisaabaat
went backwards). In the latter of his two wins (the first was a
formality) he beat River Maigue 1.5L again "staying on gamely" and
giving that rival 7lbs. That was, however, River Maigue's debut over
hurdles and that rival has since showed handsome progression on his next
start.
Nonetheless, Dodging Bullets does present something of a riddle. He has
beaten the (at time of writing) Supreme second favourite giving him
7lbs; he has finished 4th in a Triumph hurdle; he has finished third in a
G1 Christmas Hurdle on unsuitable ground; he is officially rated 156;
he is housed in one of the powerhouse stables and is their number one
contender for the race. Why, then, is he not favourite nor even close to
it?
It is perhaps fair to assess Dodging Bullets so far as a horse that has
had numerous chances to showcase elite level novice ability but having
failed to do so he becomes to look anchored and a touch exposed in a
race where form in the book matters little, sometimes not at all. The
answer to the riddle may be that Dodging Bullets is extremely game,
honest and durable - he tries like mad - with the ability to finish in
the first five. He lacks a turn of foot but can use his mental strength
to stay on with effect in his races and he will likely require a strong
pace throughout (not always guaranteed) to show his best. He will need
to run once more in preparation for the race.
My Tent Or Yours
Runner-up to The New One in the 2012 G2 Aintree Bumper. He has won 2 of
his 3 starts over hurdles on good to soft and soft ground. In three
bumper and three hurdles starts he is yet to finish outside the top two
places.
My Tent Or Yours' first run over hurdles was notable in that he beat the
future (and easy) G1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin Du Seuil by nearly 2L
in receipt of 5lbs. On his next start he was beaten by stablemate
Chatterbox on heavy ground that his jockey reported he failed to handle.
His third race was so deeply impressive that he was propelled to the
front of the betting for the prestigious Betfair Hurdle, a path trodden
by the similarly owned horses Get Me Out Of Here (Won Betfair, second in
Supreme) and Darlan (Fell Betfair, second in Supreme). He is as yet not
a certain starter.
What stamps My Tent Or Yours as potentially one of the most exciting
novice hurdlers of the season is the sheer power with which he moves
through his races, in part reminiscent of Sprinter Sacre over both
hurdles and fences. As that reference indicates, however, this could
also be a key weakness when assessing his chance in a Supreme Novices
Hurdle (Sprinter Sacre finished third in a high class renewal). By not
using his energy reserves efficiently he may 'tank' (jockey's
descriptions of his keenness) to the front but be unable to sustain a
run to the line at the required speed. Against that, he does not throw
his head around or 'refuse' to settle which is the biggest concern in a
talented horse (much like Sanctuaire over hurdles). The power displayed
in his races suggests possible progression to G1 elite level races in
open company in the future but the question is can he run an even enough
race to ensure his movement through the gears bears fruit in a Supreme.
In this respect his next race is possibly crucial. Running in a fiercely
competitive large field handicap hurdle as a novice can have both
positive and negative consequences: In the Betfair Darlan fell in 2012
which appeared to slightly affect his Supreme run/ride in which he was
second; Get Me Out Of Here won his Betfair and that success may have
helped him mentally and physically run a top notch race to be just
touched off in the Supreme. It is worth recalling very recently that
extremely quiet, unambitious preparations have arrowed the bullseye: i)
having fallen on debut and been beaten in the Challow, Al Ferof took in
two very weak races for facile wins before taking down the Supreme; and
ii) Cinders And Ashes' last two runs were in uncompetitive three runner
affairs on heavy ground before he notched festival glory.
What will perhaps matter most with My Tent Or Yours is the extent of his
mental progression and preparation and whether or not his next run
benefits this or not, as well as handling the occasion of the day and
race itself. To that extent his next appearance will be interesting to
monitor for what has been widely reported as the stable's choice of best
novice hurdler in their yard.
River Maigue
Has won one of two starts over hurdles, on heavy ground. He was second
to Dodging Bullets (gave 7lbs) after pulling/being keen and staying on
in second having been outpaced by the winner at a key stage on debut
over hurdles. His win came at Kempton beating the younger New Year's Eve
(debut) easily by 7L.
River Maigue is currently enjoying a typical Supreme Novices preparation
from his connections. He travels well and although he is often keen
early on he has displayed the ability to finish off his races quite
strongly. It appears that he ranks quite highly in the pecking order of
novice hurdlers within his powerful stable. He was perhaps caught out by
a much more streetwise and professional racehorse on his debut and
despite having to race off level weights when they next meet it is
possible he can finish in front of that rival if his progression matches
his potential at this early stage of his career. He is likely to have
one more run as part of completing his quiet preparations for the
Supreme and if this run sees further progress there is every reason to
think he will be a leading player in March. His trainer has stated that
he copes well with a lot of work at home indicating mental as well as
physical strength.
Melodic Rendezvous
Winner of the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle (heavy) he has won 2 of his 3 starts
over hurdles, both on heavy ground, with the same deep underfoot
conditions for his 7L second to Champagne Fever at Punchestown. He was
beaten on his hurdles debut at Exeter by the cruising Mr Mole (good to
soft).
That Melodic Rendezvous has yet to race beyond 17f is perhaps surprising
given the pre-season feelings of connections that two and a half miles
would be the horse's optimum at this stage. This was perhaps reinforced
at Exeter where he was beaten by a slicker, quicker rival. At Exeter he
was prominent along the home stretch just behind the leader and in front
of Mr Mole but the latter cruised past him causing Melodic Rendezvous
to switch around his rear as he couldn't go with him. Stamina and no
lack of determination seemed to be dragging him along and although a
jink and a bump from Mr Mole didn't help his momentum over the last he
wasn't going forward in a hurry.
Tactically at Cheltenham on his second start they were in no rush to be
prominent as he was held up the whole way before smoothly making ground
to be ahead of a tightly bunched cluster of horses over the last where
he stayed on powerfully up the hill, chased home by Royal Boy who he
would then crush in the Tolworth. One thing worth noting was over some
hurdles he went up, over and kind of clamped his front end down, making
it a slower process than ideal getting away front the hurdle.
The Tolworth hurdle is usually the preserve of more staying types with
the notable exception in this context of Noland in 2006 (won the
Supreme). More prominent than at Cheltenham, he took a little while to
close up on the leader after that one injected a final kick to the last
flight. He grabbed the ground to move alongside and fractionally ahead
for a while before forging on late to score decisively.
We can see that Melodic Rendezvous is progressing with racing. His
attitude is admirable and he has given his all to the line in each of
his three races this season, suggesting mental strength. At times on
deep ground he has given the impression at times in these races of
travelling sweetly but on the whole it is worth noting that he has as
yet been unable to really outspeed a rival at any point. It is unwise,
perhaps, to reach to a conclusion about his likely ability to display
pace on better ground at this stage. It can be recalled recently how a
more staying type in Al Ferof benefitted from a pace war in a Supreme
Novices Hurdle. Another run may tell us more.
Un Atout
Unbeaten in one bumper and both starts over hurdles, all three races
have been on heavy ground. There was an eleven month gap between his
sole bumper win (January 2012) and his hurdles debut (December 2012).
Described pre-season as a "lovely big horse" by his trainer Un Atout
presents at this stage the ultimate under-the-radar profile. Raced only
twice, only on heavy ground and in weak contests he has outclassed his
rivals at times on looks alone: he does indeed have a size about him and
it is perhaps here where we can caution the 'could-be-anything' tag.
Raw, immature, a future staying chaser; he also raps the top of his
hurdles quite often. Granted, his paper profile tilts towards that which
so often underlines the winner of this contest but it is perhaps worth
displaying the patience of his connections to date when assessing his
chance of a toe-to-toe, helter skelter Supreme on better ground at a
stride quicker than so far. His next run, needless to say, will be most
informative.
Puffin Billy
Winner of the 2012 Kennel gate Novices Hurdle he is unbeaten in two
bumper and two hurdles starts on good to soft, soft and heavy ground. He
has won his four races by a total of 36 lengths (17, 9 / 5, 5) and been
visually impressive in each of them.
Said by his trainer to be quite highly strung Puffin Billy has relished
the soft ground he has encountered over hurdles winning both his
contests on the bridle. In some ways he has a similar run style to My
Tent Or Yours (keen, high class cruising speed) and a similar paper
profile to Un Atout (unbeaten in weak contests).
On his latest start Puffin Billy jumped his final two hurdles really
well; prior to that less so, a mish mash of getting in to close, not
being on the right stride and hitting the top bar. As with one or two of
his market rivals, mental preparedness could be quite important for
this horse: his keenness may be affecting his hurdling rhythm and whilst
a faster pace on better ground should help him in this respect it would
be interesting to see more from him in this respect on his next start.
Progressing well and with an impressive engine, he is a very interesting
contender if acquitting himself to run an even race to the line.
Wednesday 23 January 2013
Monday 7 January 2013
2013 Gold Cup - Preliminary Thoughts
First Lieutenant
2012 RSA Chase runner-up. He has won 2 of his 11 starts over fences. This is his second season over fences. He has not won any of his last 8 chases - the last 4 of his novice campaign and all 4 of his runs this season. First Lieutenant won the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle. He has won (career) on good, soft and heavy ground. His best run over fences was when runner-up in the RSA (beaten 2.5L). He has never won a G1 or G2 chase.
First Lieutenant has run with great consistency over fences without winning for a long time or showing a level of progression in his races commensurate with a potentially top class staying chaser. On all known evidence First Lieutenant had his ideal conditions in the RSA (3m & good ground) and was beaten fairly by Bobs Worth by 2.5L. In the Hennessy Gold Cup this season First Lieutenant had race fitness/practice under his belt and was in receipt of 1lb yet was beaten over 8L by the same rival. That form has a very solid feel to it as both he and the 2nd place horse, Tidal Bay, finished in almost the exact same proximity to each other in the Lexus Chase as they did at Newbury. Although it can be said that at Newbury First Lieutenant was in receipt of 7lbs and therefore may have improved to get closer to Tidal Bay off level weights in the Lexus this line of thinking is off-set by the likelihood of First Lieutenant failing to stay the extended trip at Newbury and benefitting from a return to 3m and equally that the 3m trip would have inconvenienced Tidal Bay more given that he had won over 30f on soft ground last season and was only able to prevail in Ireland in the final strides of the race.
First Lieutenant has run over a full array of distances and on a range of ground and his consistency shows that he often runs an honest race but falls short of being top class over fences. Bobs Worth outstayed him in the RSA last season and even more comprehensively over the extended trip at Newbury and it is hard to see any reason why he should get any closer to Bobs Worth at Cheltenham, particularly as that rival is much less exposed and more open to improvement at a track on which he excels. It is worth including in calculations the possibility that the 8L gap between them when they last met will be extended under Gold Cup conditions.
Silviniaco Conti
Winner of the 2012 Betfair Chase (beating Long Run by 2.5L) he also won the Charlie Hall Chase by 11L. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over fences on good, good to soft and soft ground and is unbeaten in his last 3 starts. He is the winner of a G1 Chase - his best run to date was his most recent - and was runner-up so Grand Crus in the Feltham Novices Chase in 2011, staying on powerfully to close the winner down on the run to the line. It is worth noting that following his debut in this country he has never run in a double-figure field.
Silviniaco Conti's best run last season came in the Feltham novices chase at Kempton (although his 13L beating of Champion Court at AIntree was a smart run also). At Kempton, he was outpaced mid-race by Grand Crus' injection of pace but he stayed on stoutly to close down his tiring rival to a 2L deficit. Grand Crus finished 3rd (beaten 14L) in the King George this season following a breathing operation. Silviniaco's novice season was most likely one of preparation and growth and he duly missed the festival after a flat run (4th) in the Reynoldstown before his impressive win at Aintree. He clearly summered well and was produced early to dismantle the Charlie Hall field before an impressive display in the Betfair Chase, beating Long Run who then went on to win the King George for a second time. Long Run was clearly not asked to race to win at all costs but that should not deflect attention away from the the athleticism and superiority of Ruby Walsh's mount on the day.
He has not raced since November 24th and it is possible that he will go to the Gold Cup without another run, although this is not confirmed at the time of writing. It is important to wait and see if he reappears prior to Cheltenham as another run would help us to learn more about him. His form and the style of his last three wins entitles him to a place at the top table in the staying chase division and the extent of his improvement curve is impossible to gauge going into the race, making him one of the least exposed and potentially most exciting challengers on any ground.
Sir Des Champs
Winner of the 2012 Jewson Novices Chase he has won 5 of his 7 starts over fences on good, soft and heavy ground. He has yet to win so far this season (2 starts). He has also won at the festival over hurdles in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle on only his second start on these shores. Until this season he was unbeaten. As with some other contenders his best run at the time of writing was his last one but he did not win or place, he was a very close fourth in the Lexus Chase over 3m on soft ground.
Sir Des Champs' Jewson win was much more about style and the impression he left than substance. It is important for his overall profile that he has bettered that run this season. In the Jewson his two main market rivals both disappointed and the quality of the race overall was lacking with every horse crossing the line at notable intervals. Still, he cruised round in a fluent, powerful rhythm and could be called the winner some way out. He then outclassed inferior rivals at Punchestown.
This season no emphasis has been placed by connections on remaining unbeaten. Indeed, if we are to take the post-Jewson comments of his trainer at face value then quite the opposite has been planned: "There's only one race for him next year and that's the big race on the Friday" with comparisons of quality made to the outstanding Florida Pearl. His season to date has backed up this view, contesting the top races without appearing to have been prepared for a full tilt at them. No match for a race fit Flemenstar in the John Durkan (20f) on heavy ground (beaten 5L) he got closer to that rival when 4th in the Lexus (3m), making sustained late headway after some less than athletic jumping on soft ground. Given both his festival wins were on good ground there is every reason to suspect that Sir Des Champs will improve when presented with the conditions of his target race following a more exacting preparation in the build-up. A huge threat to all if so. He will most likely race once more where he needs to affirm his seasonal progress in some way.
Bobs Worth
The 2012 RSA Chase winner. He has won 3 of his 5 starts over fences (having won 4 from 4 over hurdles) on good and good to soft ground. He has yet to race on going officially described as soft or worse. In his novice season he ran in the top RSA trial races where a breathing problem was eventually identified, emerging from corrective measures to win the RSA Chase by 2.5L from First Lieutenant. His best run was winning the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup where he beat Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. He has run once this season at the time of writing.
Bobs Worth is not particularly big - he would be overshadowed in physical terms by horses such as Sir Des Champs and Long Run. However he dwarfs many others with a combination of top class ability and a huge desire to win. A measure of his progression since a breathing problem was diagnosed is that he beat First Lieutenant by 2.5L in the RSA but by an increasing 8L in the Hennessy, where he beat the future Lexus winner Tidal Bay (gave 6lbs) by a comfortable looking 3.5L, picking up the pace progressively on the final circuit and surging to pole position without looking to relent.
Bobs Worth is unbeaten at Cheltenham and unbeaten in double-figure fields over obstacles which is quite remarkable and this part of his overall profile coupled with his successful battles with potential rivals in March highlights him as an outstanding candidate for the race. Although recent history suggests it is unlikely to be soft on the Friday it is something to bare in mind given that he has yet to compete on such a surface; it does appear that sounder underfoot conditions complement both his tactical pace and his capability to run to the limits of his stamina at the top level. It is not easy to see why any of the horses he has beaten already should be able to run closer to or beyond him in March. It will therefore be fascinating to see how Bobs Worth copes with the winners of the Betfair Chase and King George. A very worthy favourite at this stage.
Long Run
[Having spent a lot of time analysing him (successfully!) for the King George he needs evaluating in relation to HQ, but in short soft ground becomes important to him for a Gold Cup bid]
2012 RSA Chase runner-up. He has won 2 of his 11 starts over fences. This is his second season over fences. He has not won any of his last 8 chases - the last 4 of his novice campaign and all 4 of his runs this season. First Lieutenant won the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle. He has won (career) on good, soft and heavy ground. His best run over fences was when runner-up in the RSA (beaten 2.5L). He has never won a G1 or G2 chase.
First Lieutenant has run with great consistency over fences without winning for a long time or showing a level of progression in his races commensurate with a potentially top class staying chaser. On all known evidence First Lieutenant had his ideal conditions in the RSA (3m & good ground) and was beaten fairly by Bobs Worth by 2.5L. In the Hennessy Gold Cup this season First Lieutenant had race fitness/practice under his belt and was in receipt of 1lb yet was beaten over 8L by the same rival. That form has a very solid feel to it as both he and the 2nd place horse, Tidal Bay, finished in almost the exact same proximity to each other in the Lexus Chase as they did at Newbury. Although it can be said that at Newbury First Lieutenant was in receipt of 7lbs and therefore may have improved to get closer to Tidal Bay off level weights in the Lexus this line of thinking is off-set by the likelihood of First Lieutenant failing to stay the extended trip at Newbury and benefitting from a return to 3m and equally that the 3m trip would have inconvenienced Tidal Bay more given that he had won over 30f on soft ground last season and was only able to prevail in Ireland in the final strides of the race.
First Lieutenant has run over a full array of distances and on a range of ground and his consistency shows that he often runs an honest race but falls short of being top class over fences. Bobs Worth outstayed him in the RSA last season and even more comprehensively over the extended trip at Newbury and it is hard to see any reason why he should get any closer to Bobs Worth at Cheltenham, particularly as that rival is much less exposed and more open to improvement at a track on which he excels. It is worth including in calculations the possibility that the 8L gap between them when they last met will be extended under Gold Cup conditions.
Silviniaco Conti
Winner of the 2012 Betfair Chase (beating Long Run by 2.5L) he also won the Charlie Hall Chase by 11L. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over fences on good, good to soft and soft ground and is unbeaten in his last 3 starts. He is the winner of a G1 Chase - his best run to date was his most recent - and was runner-up so Grand Crus in the Feltham Novices Chase in 2011, staying on powerfully to close the winner down on the run to the line. It is worth noting that following his debut in this country he has never run in a double-figure field.
Silviniaco Conti's best run last season came in the Feltham novices chase at Kempton (although his 13L beating of Champion Court at AIntree was a smart run also). At Kempton, he was outpaced mid-race by Grand Crus' injection of pace but he stayed on stoutly to close down his tiring rival to a 2L deficit. Grand Crus finished 3rd (beaten 14L) in the King George this season following a breathing operation. Silviniaco's novice season was most likely one of preparation and growth and he duly missed the festival after a flat run (4th) in the Reynoldstown before his impressive win at Aintree. He clearly summered well and was produced early to dismantle the Charlie Hall field before an impressive display in the Betfair Chase, beating Long Run who then went on to win the King George for a second time. Long Run was clearly not asked to race to win at all costs but that should not deflect attention away from the the athleticism and superiority of Ruby Walsh's mount on the day.
He has not raced since November 24th and it is possible that he will go to the Gold Cup without another run, although this is not confirmed at the time of writing. It is important to wait and see if he reappears prior to Cheltenham as another run would help us to learn more about him. His form and the style of his last three wins entitles him to a place at the top table in the staying chase division and the extent of his improvement curve is impossible to gauge going into the race, making him one of the least exposed and potentially most exciting challengers on any ground.
Sir Des Champs
Winner of the 2012 Jewson Novices Chase he has won 5 of his 7 starts over fences on good, soft and heavy ground. He has yet to win so far this season (2 starts). He has also won at the festival over hurdles in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle on only his second start on these shores. Until this season he was unbeaten. As with some other contenders his best run at the time of writing was his last one but he did not win or place, he was a very close fourth in the Lexus Chase over 3m on soft ground.
Sir Des Champs' Jewson win was much more about style and the impression he left than substance. It is important for his overall profile that he has bettered that run this season. In the Jewson his two main market rivals both disappointed and the quality of the race overall was lacking with every horse crossing the line at notable intervals. Still, he cruised round in a fluent, powerful rhythm and could be called the winner some way out. He then outclassed inferior rivals at Punchestown.
This season no emphasis has been placed by connections on remaining unbeaten. Indeed, if we are to take the post-Jewson comments of his trainer at face value then quite the opposite has been planned: "There's only one race for him next year and that's the big race on the Friday" with comparisons of quality made to the outstanding Florida Pearl. His season to date has backed up this view, contesting the top races without appearing to have been prepared for a full tilt at them. No match for a race fit Flemenstar in the John Durkan (20f) on heavy ground (beaten 5L) he got closer to that rival when 4th in the Lexus (3m), making sustained late headway after some less than athletic jumping on soft ground. Given both his festival wins were on good ground there is every reason to suspect that Sir Des Champs will improve when presented with the conditions of his target race following a more exacting preparation in the build-up. A huge threat to all if so. He will most likely race once more where he needs to affirm his seasonal progress in some way.
Bobs Worth
The 2012 RSA Chase winner. He has won 3 of his 5 starts over fences (having won 4 from 4 over hurdles) on good and good to soft ground. He has yet to race on going officially described as soft or worse. In his novice season he ran in the top RSA trial races where a breathing problem was eventually identified, emerging from corrective measures to win the RSA Chase by 2.5L from First Lieutenant. His best run was winning the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup where he beat Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. He has run once this season at the time of writing.
Bobs Worth is not particularly big - he would be overshadowed in physical terms by horses such as Sir Des Champs and Long Run. However he dwarfs many others with a combination of top class ability and a huge desire to win. A measure of his progression since a breathing problem was diagnosed is that he beat First Lieutenant by 2.5L in the RSA but by an increasing 8L in the Hennessy, where he beat the future Lexus winner Tidal Bay (gave 6lbs) by a comfortable looking 3.5L, picking up the pace progressively on the final circuit and surging to pole position without looking to relent.
Bobs Worth is unbeaten at Cheltenham and unbeaten in double-figure fields over obstacles which is quite remarkable and this part of his overall profile coupled with his successful battles with potential rivals in March highlights him as an outstanding candidate for the race. Although recent history suggests it is unlikely to be soft on the Friday it is something to bare in mind given that he has yet to compete on such a surface; it does appear that sounder underfoot conditions complement both his tactical pace and his capability to run to the limits of his stamina at the top level. It is not easy to see why any of the horses he has beaten already should be able to run closer to or beyond him in March. It will therefore be fascinating to see how Bobs Worth copes with the winners of the Betfair Chase and King George. A very worthy favourite at this stage.
Long Run
[Having spent a lot of time analysing him (successfully!) for the King George he needs evaluating in relation to HQ, but in short soft ground becomes important to him for a Gold Cup bid]
Wednesday 2 January 2013
2013 Champion Hurdle - Preliminary Thoughts
Hurricane Fly
The 2011 Champion Hurdler. Has won 15 of 18 races over hurdles on all ground. This will be his 6th year as a hurdler although some of those seasons have been greatly reduced by injuries/niggles. His finest hour and his best ever run came in the 2011 renewal on good ground where, having travelled well throughout, he beat Peddlers Cross after a thrilling battle over the last with the very talented Oscar Whisky unable to land any kind of blow 6L back in 3rd.
Unfortunately the injuries/niggles returned the following season and he was limited to just one outing prior to the defence of his crown and that was on January 29 on heavy ground, beating Oscars Well 6.5L. Lack of training and conditioning told in March when he was unable to get close to the two prominent racers: he came off the bridle earlier than anticipated but stuck on for pressure to take 3rd. It was mentioned after the race (variously) that he (and Binocular) were held too far back by their jockeys suggesting 'poor rides' but there is no evidence for this and his 'flat' performance can be attributed to his physical problems through the season and in the lead-up to the race.
This season Hurricane Fly began his campaign by winning in November and followed that with a win in the Istabraq Festival Hurdle over the Christmas period. Whilst both wins were routine against inferior opposition they confirm for the time being that the horse is somewhere close to the required physical condition as he progresses through to March. It will be important for this horse in particular to run again prior to the festival. Should he make the festival his chance will not be all that clear. He has nearly six lengths to find from last season's running with the winner Rock On Ruby and he will not have faced the likes of Darlan or Grandouet before. Zarkandar is also likely to have improved after the problems he also had in the lead up to the race where he was only 1L behind Hurricane Fly in fifth. These horses are also much younger than a nine year old Hurricane Fly.
At his best Hurricane Fly is clearly a standout performer capable of winning a Champion Hurdle as he did two years ago. His preparation needs to be A1 to ensure that he at peak physical condition but given that he handles any ground, has performed superbly at the track and has a top class jockey then should he do so he will have a very good chance. It is worth noting, however, that the last horse to regain the Champion Hurdle (win, defeat, win) was Comedy of Errors in 1975 (1973). Also, given the physical problems that have formed part of Hurricane Fly's racing profile over the seasons, we can include that the last 9yo's+ to claim the Champion Hurdle since Sea Pigeon (aged 11) in 1981 were Royal Gait (9) in 1992 and Rooster Booster (9) in 2003. Against fiercely young and talented rivals it is fair to say a tough task awaits the Irish superstar.
Cinders And Ashes
The 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle winner. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over hurdles on good, soft and heavy ground. Four of his last five runs have been on heavy ground, the other was his Supreme win on good ground. This will be his second season as a hurdler. His best run by some way was at the festival. At the time of writing his two runs this season on heavy ground have been generally categorised as disappointing.
Cinders And Ashes had a four race build-up to the Supreme Novices. So far he has had two runs. A feature of his runs on heavy ground last season was his hurdling technique which at times was very good. This may have been helped by the slow pace of these races and the inferior quality of his opposition. In the Supreme he wasn't as fluent as perhaps was expected but he ran out a ready winner having travelled well through the contest to beat Darlan by over 2L - form that now appears very solid indeed despite the third and fifth performing poorly this season (the fourth has not made the track as yet).
Connections have often stated that their horse would prefer better ground so it is quite interesting to note that he has only been afforded such conditions twice in his short career and one of those was on his hurdling debut. Admittedly, this season has not provided an opportunity to run on goodish ground and as such he has been asked to run on deep ground. In novice company against inferior horses this proved no problem but in open company he has been soundly beaten on both occasions. However given both his form and repeated statements from connections suggest good ground is important we should be wary of assessing Cinders And Ashes on early season heavy ground performances. Obviously any ground with the word soft in the going would diminish his chances in March but equally on good ground he would line up as the least exposed horse in the race but with a strong piece of form in the book (Darlan may have received a slightly 'considerate' ride given the nature of his fall at Newbury but still had every chance to win).
Cinders And Ashes' run style is perhaps most similar to Grandouet's (stalking acceleration) which allows us to gauge how much improvement the Supreme Novices winner has to make to be challenging for a win or place in the Champion Hurdle.
Darlan
Runner-up in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle, Darlan is otherwise unbeaten in all completed starts winning 5 of his 7 hurdles races mainly on good ground and once on heavy. This is his second season as a hurdler. Arguably one of his best runs came at Newbury on good to soft ground in the Betfair Trophy Handicap Hurdle where he was travelling powerfully when taking a crashing fall 3 from home. Had he stayed on his feet we can suggest he would have gone very close to winning and some exact form with Zarkandar who won that particular race. To the horse's credit, Darlan showed great mental strength to not be affected by his juddering fall to finish second at the festival and then go on to record an impressive win at Aintree, beating the useful Captain Conan (stablemate) by 3.5L.
This season Darlan was due to run in the Racing Post Hurdle but was withdrawn due to the heavy ground. His profile up to this season had all been on good or good to soft ground so there was a clear concern from his trainer about racing out of deep ground. However with the wet conditions failing to relent Darlan was sent to the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on his debut where the ground was again heavy. He won easily beating Raya Star (OR155) by 4.5L. The race was notable for its lack of any early pace, perhaps due to the testing conditions. It resulted in an uneven gallop and a sprint for home rounding the final bend. Nonetheless, Darlan easily accounted also for the Triumph Hurdle and Fighting Fifth winner Countryside Flame, the 150-rated Dodging Bullets and the Supreme Novices winner and Fighting Fifth runner-up Cinders & Ashes. It is possible to suggest that had the ground been good he would have won by further but we cannot say this for sure; either way it was an authoritative display.
Despite quickening up best it would be wrong to class Darlan as a speedster in the Grandouet mould. Despite travelling powerfully in handicap company prior to his fall, Darlan was less eye-catching on that front in both his Supreme run and his Aintree win. He has the potential to maintain his position at elite level pace but has displayed over hurdles the lung-power to produce sustained pace towards the end of his races. This is probably best explained by connections viewing him as a potential Arkle horse for the season but deciding to retain his hurdling pathway for the time being. It is important in terms of understanding the horse's physique and current growth pattern that prior to the start of this season his trainer was adamant that "he looks every inch a chaser in the making". With the same stable having the red-hot favourite for the Arkle (at the time of writing) it was perhaps an easier decision than normal to keep Darlan over hurdles for this season but we can take from the extent of this stable's deliberations that they view their horse as potentially top class. He will need at least one more run prior to the festival to ensure physical preparedness for March, where a stiff 2m on good or good to soft ground at festival pace will be ideal.
Rock On Ruby
The reigning Champion Hurdler. Has completed all 9 starts over hurdles never finishing out of the first 3 and winning 3 times on good or good to soft ground. This will be his third season as a hurdler. His finest hour came in this race last year where he was prominent early, moved forward to join battle with Overturn before rounding the bound really powerfully to bound away from his opponents, defeating the resilient Overturn by nearly 4L with Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Zarkandar further adrift.
His win in March demonstrated his main attributes admirably: powerfully strong G1 running pace and a mental toughness to go with it, and good ground. On his preferred ground Rock on Ruby can already be said to be something of a Cheltenham specialist, a phrase which can sometimes hinder rather than reveal the true qualities of a horse. Taking away his reappearance run this season on heavy ground (3rd), his Cheltenham record reads: 1221 which also features his 2nd place finish in the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle won by the now classy chaser First Lieutenant. He had also finished 2nd to a certain Bobs Worth at the track.
The other key run to focus on was his narrow defeat in the Christmas Hurdle of 2011 to Binocular. Given his identifiable liking for the physical demands of Cheltenham his run at Kempton (which was to be his last prior to winning in March) perhaps looks better than it may have done at the time as both horses were hard ridden some way out and enjoined in a titanic struggle with the older horse just prevailing. Still, Overturn was 8L away in third giving the form of the race a solid look.
Rock On Ruby's reappearance this season was in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, race that also saw the reappearance of Grandouet. Both horses were conceding race fitness and 4lbs to Zarkandar who had previously won the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Despite fading late on to be beaten 8L Rock On Ruby can be said to have run with much credit. He travelled with his customary power on this track and was still moving far better than Zarkandar 2 out as that rival came off the bridle. From there race fitness appeared to tell as Zarkandar surged on once again and Rock On Ruby was pushed out once his race was run. After the race it was notable that both Ruby Walsh and Barry Gerraghty made specific reference to Rock On Ruby's appearance in the paddock in so much as they both agreed that he did not look 'match-fit' and would improve physically for the run. There was evidence to support this view during the race as despite racing together for much of the way Walsh only appeared to be concerned with Grandouet behind him, twice looking through his legs to judge where that rival was.
Rock On Ruby will require another run to hone his physical preparedness for March (he raced twice last season before March). On good or good to soft ground he will prove to be a very difficult opponent to pass and must have a sound chance of repeating his win in March. However at this stage he looks set to face an improved Zarkandar, a Hurricane Fly in better physical shape than last year's race and for the first time Grandouet who won the International Hurdle last season beating Overturn comfortably and who was in front of Rock On Ruby by 6L in this year's renewal on his reappearance on unsuitable ground also.
Zarkandar
The 2011 Triumph Hurdle winner has now won 6 of his 8 races over hurdles on good, good to soft and heavy ground. This is his third season over hurdles. His finest hour was his festival win but he has made considerable progress already this season, the most in fact of any of this season's contenders not least because he has seen the track twice already winning the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and the International Hurdle at Cheltenham (beating Grandouet by 2L).
Zarkandar's other notable success came in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, winning with an OR of 151 and defying a ten month absence. It should be noted that this is the same race in which Darlan OR146 was moving ominously well before crashing out 3 from home. Zarkandar's success showcased his ability to run well fresh (as at Wincanton) regardless of any reported problems during his time off (his trainer suggested he coughed at some point after the race). Viewed as a cluster of valuable races that he has won there can be no doubting the impressive, talented and resilient characteristics on display. The Betfair Hurdle win prompted a Champion Hurdle attempt in which he was tactically outpaced before staying on gallantly to finish fifth.
This season Zarkandar will likely be coming into the race on the back of three runs as opposed to last year's one so improvement with racing has to be factored in to his overall profile. Having finished fifth the season before and having already won two of the key 2m hurdle races before the turn of the year then Zarkandar has a clear chance of improving on his placing this coming March. There is however a gathering amount of evidence to suggest that over two miles in elite G1 company good ground may hinder his win chance considerably.
The Betfair Hurdle was run at a slow pace early, pointed to markedly on the RUK commentary. Zarkandar was unable to track the quickening mid-race pace comfortably, being niggled and ridden at that point. Darlan himself also had to be nudged to make progress but his advance through the field was much easier on the eye than Zarkandar's who in the final outcome had to be shaken up and ridden continuously to get to the lead at which point there was no other winner and he won comfortably.
In the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton he gave Supreme Novices fifth Prospect Wells 17lbs and won narrowly. He travelled notably well throughout the contest in which he and Prospect Wells were head to head for much of the way, Prospect Wells shaken up and ridden, Zarkandar much more comfortable. The concession of such weight is perhaps worthy of caution, however: Prospect Wells was then beaten 16L in tenth place in a 2m handicap off 146 before being stepped markedly up in trip to 25f on heavy ground where he was beaten 57L. We can therefore question what Zarkandar achieved by travelling all over this rival 2f out at Wincanton over 2m, but winning after being ridden by only a quarter of a length.
In the International Hurdle Zarkandar received albs from his two main rivals and met them with the Wincanton win under his belt as opposed to his two rivals arriving for their first race of the season. All would have been inconvenienced in some way by the deep ground. Zarkandar was asked to make the race a stamina test and he led from the start. However Rock On Ruby travelled much the better as Zarkandar came off the bridle two out having to be ridden to maintain his position before his enviable stamina qualities and attitude came to the fore to seal the race after the last. This run indicated a similarity to something that had happened already in the Champion Hurdle: Zarkandar was unable to go with the pace at elite level over 2m on goodish ground. He has in short been at his very best at the end of his races, suggesting he will be suited by further in time at the top level.
On good or natural good to soft ground a high degree of caution is advisable until we learn more about Zarkandar's ability to travel into a race under such conditions in March. The evidence of his runs to date highlight a determined and mentally strong horse who is much more likely to have his strengths revealed if the Champion Hurdle were to be run on genuinely soft ground, under which conditions his chance could be marked up appreciably.
Grandouet
The 2011 International Hurdle winner and runner-up in that event in 2012. This is his third season over hurdles. He has won 5 of his 11 starts over hurdles since arriving from France on good and good to soft ground. It is worth noting that Grandouet has yet to win in a double-figure field, although the only significant race in this respect was the Triumph Hurdle run on the New Course two years ago, where he finished 3rd to Zarkandar.
Grandouet is another horse from the Henderson stable to have close ties with Zarkandar, having fallen when travelling well at Aintree and chasing that rival home in this season's running of the International Hurdle. There is an element of supposition regarding Grandouet's overall profile due in part to him being forced to miss both the Kingwell Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle last season. However his beating of Overturn by 4L (in receipt of 4lbs) in the 2011 International Hurdle - his best run to date - indicates that in last season's Champion Hurdle he would have finished in the front three all things being equal.
On all known evidence Grandouet has a number of strong qualities. One of these relates to the manner of his victories: he is yet to win by less than 4L meaning he has completely outclassed his rivals in those races. Four of those are to be expected but, again, it is his dismissal of the eventual 2012 Champion Hurdle runner-up on his final outing of last season that prompts talk of him being a potential Champion Hurdle winner based on the form of last season's renewal.
Grandouet also possesses a highly distinctive run style which accounts for his wide margin successes against inferior opposition - on good or good to soft ground he is exceptionally fast. As well as the bare form of his win over Overturn it may be worthwhile factoring into calculations the ease with which Grandouet travelled through the race. Approaching the last hurdle Barry Geraghty had effectively run out of opponents to cover his mount up behind in the process of showing exceptional tactical pace. The key aspect of this is that the Champion Hurdle is run on the 'easier' Old Course which favours those horses with tactical acceleration and pace able to advance into gaps and steer around rivals for best positions.
Grandouet requires another run to prove his physical soundness in the lead-up to the festival. His electric speed and potentially elite level tactical pace may prove decisive on good or good to soft ground but soft or heavy ground would require a strong revision of his qualities under such conditions, where more stamina-laden horses would benefit.
The 2011 Champion Hurdler. Has won 15 of 18 races over hurdles on all ground. This will be his 6th year as a hurdler although some of those seasons have been greatly reduced by injuries/niggles. His finest hour and his best ever run came in the 2011 renewal on good ground where, having travelled well throughout, he beat Peddlers Cross after a thrilling battle over the last with the very talented Oscar Whisky unable to land any kind of blow 6L back in 3rd.
Unfortunately the injuries/niggles returned the following season and he was limited to just one outing prior to the defence of his crown and that was on January 29 on heavy ground, beating Oscars Well 6.5L. Lack of training and conditioning told in March when he was unable to get close to the two prominent racers: he came off the bridle earlier than anticipated but stuck on for pressure to take 3rd. It was mentioned after the race (variously) that he (and Binocular) were held too far back by their jockeys suggesting 'poor rides' but there is no evidence for this and his 'flat' performance can be attributed to his physical problems through the season and in the lead-up to the race.
This season Hurricane Fly began his campaign by winning in November and followed that with a win in the Istabraq Festival Hurdle over the Christmas period. Whilst both wins were routine against inferior opposition they confirm for the time being that the horse is somewhere close to the required physical condition as he progresses through to March. It will be important for this horse in particular to run again prior to the festival. Should he make the festival his chance will not be all that clear. He has nearly six lengths to find from last season's running with the winner Rock On Ruby and he will not have faced the likes of Darlan or Grandouet before. Zarkandar is also likely to have improved after the problems he also had in the lead up to the race where he was only 1L behind Hurricane Fly in fifth. These horses are also much younger than a nine year old Hurricane Fly.
At his best Hurricane Fly is clearly a standout performer capable of winning a Champion Hurdle as he did two years ago. His preparation needs to be A1 to ensure that he at peak physical condition but given that he handles any ground, has performed superbly at the track and has a top class jockey then should he do so he will have a very good chance. It is worth noting, however, that the last horse to regain the Champion Hurdle (win, defeat, win) was Comedy of Errors in 1975 (1973). Also, given the physical problems that have formed part of Hurricane Fly's racing profile over the seasons, we can include that the last 9yo's+ to claim the Champion Hurdle since Sea Pigeon (aged 11) in 1981 were Royal Gait (9) in 1992 and Rooster Booster (9) in 2003. Against fiercely young and talented rivals it is fair to say a tough task awaits the Irish superstar.
Cinders And Ashes
The 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle winner. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over hurdles on good, soft and heavy ground. Four of his last five runs have been on heavy ground, the other was his Supreme win on good ground. This will be his second season as a hurdler. His best run by some way was at the festival. At the time of writing his two runs this season on heavy ground have been generally categorised as disappointing.
Cinders And Ashes had a four race build-up to the Supreme Novices. So far he has had two runs. A feature of his runs on heavy ground last season was his hurdling technique which at times was very good. This may have been helped by the slow pace of these races and the inferior quality of his opposition. In the Supreme he wasn't as fluent as perhaps was expected but he ran out a ready winner having travelled well through the contest to beat Darlan by over 2L - form that now appears very solid indeed despite the third and fifth performing poorly this season (the fourth has not made the track as yet).
Connections have often stated that their horse would prefer better ground so it is quite interesting to note that he has only been afforded such conditions twice in his short career and one of those was on his hurdling debut. Admittedly, this season has not provided an opportunity to run on goodish ground and as such he has been asked to run on deep ground. In novice company against inferior horses this proved no problem but in open company he has been soundly beaten on both occasions. However given both his form and repeated statements from connections suggest good ground is important we should be wary of assessing Cinders And Ashes on early season heavy ground performances. Obviously any ground with the word soft in the going would diminish his chances in March but equally on good ground he would line up as the least exposed horse in the race but with a strong piece of form in the book (Darlan may have received a slightly 'considerate' ride given the nature of his fall at Newbury but still had every chance to win).
Cinders And Ashes' run style is perhaps most similar to Grandouet's (stalking acceleration) which allows us to gauge how much improvement the Supreme Novices winner has to make to be challenging for a win or place in the Champion Hurdle.
Darlan
Runner-up in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle, Darlan is otherwise unbeaten in all completed starts winning 5 of his 7 hurdles races mainly on good ground and once on heavy. This is his second season as a hurdler. Arguably one of his best runs came at Newbury on good to soft ground in the Betfair Trophy Handicap Hurdle where he was travelling powerfully when taking a crashing fall 3 from home. Had he stayed on his feet we can suggest he would have gone very close to winning and some exact form with Zarkandar who won that particular race. To the horse's credit, Darlan showed great mental strength to not be affected by his juddering fall to finish second at the festival and then go on to record an impressive win at Aintree, beating the useful Captain Conan (stablemate) by 3.5L.
This season Darlan was due to run in the Racing Post Hurdle but was withdrawn due to the heavy ground. His profile up to this season had all been on good or good to soft ground so there was a clear concern from his trainer about racing out of deep ground. However with the wet conditions failing to relent Darlan was sent to the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on his debut where the ground was again heavy. He won easily beating Raya Star (OR155) by 4.5L. The race was notable for its lack of any early pace, perhaps due to the testing conditions. It resulted in an uneven gallop and a sprint for home rounding the final bend. Nonetheless, Darlan easily accounted also for the Triumph Hurdle and Fighting Fifth winner Countryside Flame, the 150-rated Dodging Bullets and the Supreme Novices winner and Fighting Fifth runner-up Cinders & Ashes. It is possible to suggest that had the ground been good he would have won by further but we cannot say this for sure; either way it was an authoritative display.
Despite quickening up best it would be wrong to class Darlan as a speedster in the Grandouet mould. Despite travelling powerfully in handicap company prior to his fall, Darlan was less eye-catching on that front in both his Supreme run and his Aintree win. He has the potential to maintain his position at elite level pace but has displayed over hurdles the lung-power to produce sustained pace towards the end of his races. This is probably best explained by connections viewing him as a potential Arkle horse for the season but deciding to retain his hurdling pathway for the time being. It is important in terms of understanding the horse's physique and current growth pattern that prior to the start of this season his trainer was adamant that "he looks every inch a chaser in the making". With the same stable having the red-hot favourite for the Arkle (at the time of writing) it was perhaps an easier decision than normal to keep Darlan over hurdles for this season but we can take from the extent of this stable's deliberations that they view their horse as potentially top class. He will need at least one more run prior to the festival to ensure physical preparedness for March, where a stiff 2m on good or good to soft ground at festival pace will be ideal.
Rock On Ruby
The reigning Champion Hurdler. Has completed all 9 starts over hurdles never finishing out of the first 3 and winning 3 times on good or good to soft ground. This will be his third season as a hurdler. His finest hour came in this race last year where he was prominent early, moved forward to join battle with Overturn before rounding the bound really powerfully to bound away from his opponents, defeating the resilient Overturn by nearly 4L with Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Zarkandar further adrift.
His win in March demonstrated his main attributes admirably: powerfully strong G1 running pace and a mental toughness to go with it, and good ground. On his preferred ground Rock on Ruby can already be said to be something of a Cheltenham specialist, a phrase which can sometimes hinder rather than reveal the true qualities of a horse. Taking away his reappearance run this season on heavy ground (3rd), his Cheltenham record reads: 1221 which also features his 2nd place finish in the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle won by the now classy chaser First Lieutenant. He had also finished 2nd to a certain Bobs Worth at the track.
The other key run to focus on was his narrow defeat in the Christmas Hurdle of 2011 to Binocular. Given his identifiable liking for the physical demands of Cheltenham his run at Kempton (which was to be his last prior to winning in March) perhaps looks better than it may have done at the time as both horses were hard ridden some way out and enjoined in a titanic struggle with the older horse just prevailing. Still, Overturn was 8L away in third giving the form of the race a solid look.
Rock On Ruby's reappearance this season was in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, race that also saw the reappearance of Grandouet. Both horses were conceding race fitness and 4lbs to Zarkandar who had previously won the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Despite fading late on to be beaten 8L Rock On Ruby can be said to have run with much credit. He travelled with his customary power on this track and was still moving far better than Zarkandar 2 out as that rival came off the bridle. From there race fitness appeared to tell as Zarkandar surged on once again and Rock On Ruby was pushed out once his race was run. After the race it was notable that both Ruby Walsh and Barry Gerraghty made specific reference to Rock On Ruby's appearance in the paddock in so much as they both agreed that he did not look 'match-fit' and would improve physically for the run. There was evidence to support this view during the race as despite racing together for much of the way Walsh only appeared to be concerned with Grandouet behind him, twice looking through his legs to judge where that rival was.
Rock On Ruby will require another run to hone his physical preparedness for March (he raced twice last season before March). On good or good to soft ground he will prove to be a very difficult opponent to pass and must have a sound chance of repeating his win in March. However at this stage he looks set to face an improved Zarkandar, a Hurricane Fly in better physical shape than last year's race and for the first time Grandouet who won the International Hurdle last season beating Overturn comfortably and who was in front of Rock On Ruby by 6L in this year's renewal on his reappearance on unsuitable ground also.
Zarkandar
The 2011 Triumph Hurdle winner has now won 6 of his 8 races over hurdles on good, good to soft and heavy ground. This is his third season over hurdles. His finest hour was his festival win but he has made considerable progress already this season, the most in fact of any of this season's contenders not least because he has seen the track twice already winning the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and the International Hurdle at Cheltenham (beating Grandouet by 2L).
Zarkandar's other notable success came in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, winning with an OR of 151 and defying a ten month absence. It should be noted that this is the same race in which Darlan OR146 was moving ominously well before crashing out 3 from home. Zarkandar's success showcased his ability to run well fresh (as at Wincanton) regardless of any reported problems during his time off (his trainer suggested he coughed at some point after the race). Viewed as a cluster of valuable races that he has won there can be no doubting the impressive, talented and resilient characteristics on display. The Betfair Hurdle win prompted a Champion Hurdle attempt in which he was tactically outpaced before staying on gallantly to finish fifth.
This season Zarkandar will likely be coming into the race on the back of three runs as opposed to last year's one so improvement with racing has to be factored in to his overall profile. Having finished fifth the season before and having already won two of the key 2m hurdle races before the turn of the year then Zarkandar has a clear chance of improving on his placing this coming March. There is however a gathering amount of evidence to suggest that over two miles in elite G1 company good ground may hinder his win chance considerably.
The Betfair Hurdle was run at a slow pace early, pointed to markedly on the RUK commentary. Zarkandar was unable to track the quickening mid-race pace comfortably, being niggled and ridden at that point. Darlan himself also had to be nudged to make progress but his advance through the field was much easier on the eye than Zarkandar's who in the final outcome had to be shaken up and ridden continuously to get to the lead at which point there was no other winner and he won comfortably.
In the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton he gave Supreme Novices fifth Prospect Wells 17lbs and won narrowly. He travelled notably well throughout the contest in which he and Prospect Wells were head to head for much of the way, Prospect Wells shaken up and ridden, Zarkandar much more comfortable. The concession of such weight is perhaps worthy of caution, however: Prospect Wells was then beaten 16L in tenth place in a 2m handicap off 146 before being stepped markedly up in trip to 25f on heavy ground where he was beaten 57L. We can therefore question what Zarkandar achieved by travelling all over this rival 2f out at Wincanton over 2m, but winning after being ridden by only a quarter of a length.
In the International Hurdle Zarkandar received albs from his two main rivals and met them with the Wincanton win under his belt as opposed to his two rivals arriving for their first race of the season. All would have been inconvenienced in some way by the deep ground. Zarkandar was asked to make the race a stamina test and he led from the start. However Rock On Ruby travelled much the better as Zarkandar came off the bridle two out having to be ridden to maintain his position before his enviable stamina qualities and attitude came to the fore to seal the race after the last. This run indicated a similarity to something that had happened already in the Champion Hurdle: Zarkandar was unable to go with the pace at elite level over 2m on goodish ground. He has in short been at his very best at the end of his races, suggesting he will be suited by further in time at the top level.
On good or natural good to soft ground a high degree of caution is advisable until we learn more about Zarkandar's ability to travel into a race under such conditions in March. The evidence of his runs to date highlight a determined and mentally strong horse who is much more likely to have his strengths revealed if the Champion Hurdle were to be run on genuinely soft ground, under which conditions his chance could be marked up appreciably.
Grandouet
The 2011 International Hurdle winner and runner-up in that event in 2012. This is his third season over hurdles. He has won 5 of his 11 starts over hurdles since arriving from France on good and good to soft ground. It is worth noting that Grandouet has yet to win in a double-figure field, although the only significant race in this respect was the Triumph Hurdle run on the New Course two years ago, where he finished 3rd to Zarkandar.
Grandouet is another horse from the Henderson stable to have close ties with Zarkandar, having fallen when travelling well at Aintree and chasing that rival home in this season's running of the International Hurdle. There is an element of supposition regarding Grandouet's overall profile due in part to him being forced to miss both the Kingwell Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle last season. However his beating of Overturn by 4L (in receipt of 4lbs) in the 2011 International Hurdle - his best run to date - indicates that in last season's Champion Hurdle he would have finished in the front three all things being equal.
On all known evidence Grandouet has a number of strong qualities. One of these relates to the manner of his victories: he is yet to win by less than 4L meaning he has completely outclassed his rivals in those races. Four of those are to be expected but, again, it is his dismissal of the eventual 2012 Champion Hurdle runner-up on his final outing of last season that prompts talk of him being a potential Champion Hurdle winner based on the form of last season's renewal.
Grandouet also possesses a highly distinctive run style which accounts for his wide margin successes against inferior opposition - on good or good to soft ground he is exceptionally fast. As well as the bare form of his win over Overturn it may be worthwhile factoring into calculations the ease with which Grandouet travelled through the race. Approaching the last hurdle Barry Geraghty had effectively run out of opponents to cover his mount up behind in the process of showing exceptional tactical pace. The key aspect of this is that the Champion Hurdle is run on the 'easier' Old Course which favours those horses with tactical acceleration and pace able to advance into gaps and steer around rivals for best positions.
Grandouet requires another run to prove his physical soundness in the lead-up to the festival. His electric speed and potentially elite level tactical pace may prove decisive on good or good to soft ground but soft or heavy ground would require a strong revision of his qualities under such conditions, where more stamina-laden horses would benefit.
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