Raceday Thoughts
* Assumed ground is g/s
Last year saw a stroll in the sunshine for the elite class Simonsig;
this year sees a similar four-horse war to that of 2011 which provided
one of the most thrilling finishes of recent times as First Lieutenant,
Rock On Ruby, So Young and Oscars Well hurtled almost in unison towards
the last hurdle. For First Lieutenant we have Rule The World, a classy
smooth travelling staying chaser in the making with the same
connections; for Rock On Ruby we have The New One, a classy looking
hurdler with speed, style and form in a key trial with a leading
contender in the Albert Bartlett; for So Young we have the likewise
Willie Mullins trained Pont Alexandre, although his profile is
different; and For Oscars Well we have the similarly devastating soft
ground performer Taquin Du Seuil but trained here instead of Ireland.
This truly fascinating and potentially high class mix has a further added dimension in the shape of Puffin Billy.
Winner of the 2012 Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle before he ran at Exeter
he was unbeaten in two bumper and two hurdles starts on good to soft,
soft and heavy ground. He had won his four races prior to Exeter by a
total of 36 lengths (17, 9 / 5, 5) and been visually impressive in each
of them. Said by his trainer to be quite highly strung Puffin Billy has
relished the soft ground he has encountered over hurdles winning both
his contests on the bridle. His run style is stamped by a keen, high
class cruising speed not all that dissimilar to that of The New One. At
Ascot he jumped his final two hurdles really well; prior to that less
so, a mish mash of getting in too close, not being on the right stride
and hitting the top bar. Mental preparedness could be quite important
for this horse and it was extremely unfortunate that he ran as if
punch-drunk at Exeter on his latest start, displaying none of the class
and running power that had stamped his previous displays. Said to be
lame afterwards he may have been carrying an infection or other ailment
which presents a far from satisfactory build-up to one of the hottest
races of the entire season. Puffin Billy is a hugely talented horse and
will be a very interesting high class runner next season but as the 2011
renewal so vividly illustrated potential and flashy characteristics are
simply not enough to carry out a win in this contest and, with the
extended trip also likely to ask new and demanding questions once racing
behind the bridle, he is deferred for the time being. His four main
rivals have all enjoyed, so far as we know, a strong physical and mental
build-up to this race.
Some heady stares may be directed at Taquin Du Seuil following
the running of the Supreme Novices Hurdle on the Tuesday as the
performance of My Tent Or Yours - probably the most exciting novice
hurdler of the season so far - shadows part of Taquin's profile. They
met in November at Ascot over 16f (good to soft) with Taquin giving 5lbs
to his now illustrious rival to be beaten around 2L, making My Tent Or
Yours complete his race fully. Jonjo O'Neill's horse didn't hurdle with
exacting fluency that day but over a trip short of his best against a
potentially top class rival it was a run of note and he has duly hacked
up in the G2 Sandown trial for this race (20f, Heavy) and the G1 Challow
Hurdle later in the same month (21f, Heavy). Physically Taquin Du Seuil
has a pronounced soft ground action and quite a wiry narrow frame.
Classy horses can adapt to better ground but his profile does raise a
few concerns. The Neptune is an elite event requiring speed and stamina
to last out 21f with a stiff finish. It tends to strongly favour NH bred
types given that over the last decade or so only two flat breds have
grasped the prize and they had strong form on the flat (Listed class at
least). A glance at Taquin Du Seuil's history reveals a flat pedigree
lacking in the ability to make an impact in that code. He started the
season early, in October, and as with Jezki in the Supreme Novices
Hurdle there is a feeling that winning prizes in the first half of the
season had more import than preparing slowly for the Festival. He has
been given a break since winning the Challow emphatically but here too
the omens swirl above him with Challow winners struggling to complete
the 'double' via the Neptune despite many still finding the podium at
HQ. In a weaker contest he would have almost certainly retained the
appeal he has visually provided this season but with the strength in
depth on offer in this race his rivals are circling.
Not least among which is the hugely exciting Pont Alexandre.
Given the form and displays of Taquin Du Seuil we should perhaps work
hard to quantify that: So Young and Boston Bob were also bracketed in
that category, going off at short prices and were beaten. In short we
may want to ascertain if this a horse for the all-out demands of the
here and now, or a future prospect of the highest order. He has raced
over hurdles twice, winning the G1 Navan Novice Hurdle over 20f by 13L
on heavy ground on debut and winning the G2 Synergy Security Solutions
Novice Hurdle by 11L also on heavy ground and in atrocious weather. It
is clear that Pont Alexandre is thought to be one of his trainer's best
novices. Running in a G1 on debut illustrates this clearly enough as
does registering a combined win margin of 24L in his two starts but what
characteristics in particular has he displayed to date. Pont Alexandre
handles heavy ground and on both starts he has raced from the front and
made all. On his debut he jumped noticeably right over his hurdles and
this aspect of his jumping reappeared on his next start. This would be a
slight worry in a fast-run race on better ground around Cheltenham but
the conditions there will be markedly different (ground, field-size,
pace) so it is not certain whether he will repeat the same tendency. On
the whole his jumping is good and clever although when asked to race by
his jockey, most notably at the last hurdle on his recent start, he was
very novicey indeed. Given the softness of the ground it may be
significant that Pont Alexandre has been ridden to make all. Many time
novices are given cover, experience of racing amongst horses and so on
but here none of that has been on the mind of connections which may indicate
two things: he is so highly regarded it is not considered necessary and a
clear sight of hurdles and staying out of the way of inferior horses
was more important; and also 20f may be the minimum of his requirements.
Pont Alexandre is therefore quite difficult to assess. He has jumped
right, relished heavy ground and is a future staying chaser - he has the
size and build of one already and his trainer has said clearly enough
that the horse is exciting for his potential over a number of years. Yet
he has run all over G1 and G2 races in Ireland with the minimum of
fuss. Interestingly though we know far more about him than we did about
Fiveforthree from the same stable, who debuted as late as February 13
over 2m on soft ground before winning the Neptune on his second start.
Fiveforthree had a fine turn of foot, however. Mikael D'Haguenet was
given four runs prior to his win in this race; for Pont Alexandre
therefore much will depend not only on his own level of residual class
at this stage but the readiness of his rivals to exploit any gaps in his
hurdling best. Two candidates stand out but it threatens to be
extremely close whichever way the race is run.
Just as respect is afforded to a high class Mullins runner in this race
so it must also be afforded to one trained by Mouse Morris. Rule The World
seeks to avenge the defeat of his half-brother Venalmar at the hands of
the aforementioned Fiveforthree in yet another thrilling climb up the
hill in this race. Winner of the 2013 Slaney Novices Hurdle by 16L on
soft to heavy ground, he has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles this
season on soft and heavy ground. His sole defeat to date came over 3m on
his second start. Perhaps the most impressive aspects of Rule The
World's performances this season have been the even and professional
distribution of his energy and his hurdling. It could be said that his
hurdling is among the most impressive of any of the novices so far,
appearing to respect his obstacles he clears them fluently and on a
correct stride. The only time this deserted him slightly was when
narrowly defeated over 3m on his second start, where three out and two
out he perhaps didn't adjust himself quickly enough. In his races Rule
The World settles very well; he is not keen and doesn't pull which is a
very interesting aspect of his overall profile: he moves through his
races evenly and comfortably and over 20f he has outclassed his rivals
with the minimum of effort. Venalmar had the same kind of campaign (one
typical of the trainer in general): four runs capped off with a win in
the Slaney Novices Hurdle then kept fresh until March. Venalmar's Slaney
win had more substance but even if Champagne Fever hadn't have run
poorly Rule The World gave the impression he would have won in smart
fashion and his overall profile coupled with a strong, powerful build
looks set to give him a big chance of going one better than his
half-brother with the prospect of better ground likely to play to his
strengths. Venalmar, First Lieutenant, Rule The World: a stellar cast of
talent that his trainer has guided to this race in recent times and it
is that characteristic skill that suggests Rule The World is here to do
it now just as much as next season. Stalking him will be a hurdler
potentially out of the top novice drawer, however.
In a race of very fine margins it may just be raw speed as a hurdler that edges THE NEW ONE
to the line first. He won the Warwick trial for this race and was
runner-up in the HQ version on heavy ground in late January, grabbed
late to be beaten a head by At Fishers Cross. Prior to this narrow
reversal he had won all three of his hurdles starts (6L 6th in the
Champion Bumper) on soft and good to soft ground. Two of his four starts
have come away from Cheltenham resulting in facile successes of 26L and
16L. Of far more interest are both the simple fact that he has been to
Cheltenham twice to race over the Neptune trip; and then the qualities
he displayed in those races. Both the esteem in which he is held by
connections and his gradual curve of progression add to his overall
profile. The New One's first race at the track was on good to soft
ground on his second start. In contrast to his later visit, this run
(beating Village Vic nearly 3L) foregrounded a measure of grit and
stamina, staying on strongly to assert up the hill with both horses
pulling 20L clear of the third. Village Vic did not go on to compliment
the form at all in two subsequent runs but his latest 6th in the Betfair
Hurdle was a solid effort. The New One's second race at the track was
on heavy ground. The race was quite clearly defined for a trial with the
third, Coneygree, and the winner, At Fishers Cross both openly
considered Albert Bartlett types after the race, probably before.
Despite being closely grouped on the long run to the last flight The New
One was able to 'quicken' around 3 to 4L ahead of his rivals but the
move was either too early or too tiring in the ground and his lead was
eroded just before the line.
The New One has demonstrated an ability to travel strongly through his
races although it should be mentioned that his hurdling is sometimes far
from fluent. Whether he actually quickened or not coming down the hill
last time out is quite an interesting question. He may have just been
running at a higher tempo than his staying rivals who were about to dig
into their stamina reserves. What may have happened was a pace
differential - The New One still moving strongly at one (fast) pace
running downhill at the moment his staying rivals were switching off the
bridle to race behind it. If The New One had truly quickened away then
he probably would have opened up a winning gap although on better ground
he may actually change gears which would perhaps be decisive . The New
One's run style could be akin to those horses capable of a long
sustained run at a very high tempo rather than a cruise-and-quicken
style. For the Neptune, staying right to the line after having the speed
to be put into the race turning the bend is a crucial component and so
far The New One has demonstrated this. Better ground may prove quite
important to The New One. This is not because he cannot cope with soft
ground - he clearly can - but because his sustained run to the line once
down the hill will be much more assured on goodish ground than, as seen
in his run at Cheltenham on heavy, if the ground was tiring making
sustaining his gallop to the line more gruelling and punishing. A
fascinating runner and a leading contender he can become the top avenger
and put right his trial loss on the biggest stage of all.
Selections: THE NEW ONE e/w & Rule The World e/w.
Thursday 28 February 2013
Tuesday 26 February 2013
2013 RSA Chase - Raceday Thoughts
*Assumed ground is g/s
** Assessment of Lyreen Legend has been delayed until confirmed for the race: he is held by Back In Focus, himself not a certain starter.
A wide open renewal featuring a clutch of talented horses that offer an eclectic mix of ages, preparations and abilities. Yet to the diversity of their profiles corresponds the near uniformity of what they offer at heart: strong, progressive staying metal. The exception to this may well be the favourite, Dynaste, who also has the option of the Jewson Novices Chase. As a grey with eye-catching speed and a supporting role behind Big Buck's, Dynaste is obviously compared to Grand Crus. The latter was the better hurdler and whilst Dynaste may do better over fences whether that will be seen as early as now, in an RSA Chase, is debatable. The demands of the race force horses to race from a considerable way out which makes racing behind the bridle a necessity: once the smoother running is done it is then all about heart, desire, pain and force of will over a brutal staying distance for a novice. This does not describe the racecourse evidence for Dynaste. He "quickened" away from Fingal Bay and an early-season Unioniste impressively over 21f in November and was still on the bridle when left in the lead four out at Newbury over 20f, allowing the resolute stayer Court In Motion (received 7lbs) to within 5L of him as a courtesy. The choice to go for the Feltham was an interesting one given that in so doing they were in part committing to the same route and preparation for the Festival as that chosen for Grand Crus. For Dynaste, the Feltham ground was heavy with two fences omitted and from a moderate gallop he injected pace nothing in the race could handle four out and settled the contest in seconds, eventually coasting home 9L clear of Hadrian's Approach. None of which will really matter when, faced with opponents primed for their big day also, they start to race and gallop and stay and won't go away: at that point somewhere after coming down the hill Dynaste will breathe and have no more to give whilst others will still be rolling and asking themselves to find even more for pressure. He would stand a much better chance in the Jewson but as a cautionary note overall it can be noted that David Pipe has saddled only one winner from 59 attempts in non-handicaps at the Festival.
Despite being a mere five years of age the French-bred Unioniste offers the prospect of more resolute staying power. He had already had eight racecourse starts prior to winning on debut as a 4yo at Aintree and then bumped into Dynaste in a small field on good to soft ground. The first ever 4yo winner of the prestigious December Gold Cup Handicap he beat the honest Walkon by 11L (21f, Heavy) to leave no room at all for underestimations of his ability and running power (by the strong stamina influence Dom Alco). Perhaps due to the presence of strong stayer Rocky Creek in the same stable that horse went to the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot (and won) and Unioniste was sent to Newbury for a five runner affair predominantly against the Feltham runner-up Hadrian's Approach over three miles on soft ground. He won all-out after Hadrian's Approach pecked two out costing him momentum just as he was beginning to really start rolling into his stride. Unioniste for his part kept galloping to the line for another excellent victory but it did suggest that, at this stage in his career, another half a furlong in a better race involving more of a war may not suit him ideally. He also has the option of the Jewson Novices Chase which, given his impressive win in December, may make more sense but his trainer seems intent on this race where his runners of late have failed to make any impression. Unioniste is clearly talented but without the weight concession enjoyed by Star De Mohaison he has a formidable task before him.
Boston Bob has hit the Festival podium already in defeat to the smart (ill-fated) Brindisi Breeze. In positive terms, the Albert Bartlett of 2011 was won by the 2012 RSA Chase winner despite the form of the race being poor. The race can be used as a stepping point for future staying chasers and Boston Bob is very much in the mould of a big strong staying type over fences. In that sense a 2L defeat on the quickest ground he had encountered all season by some way is a good run. However in terms of assessing the residual class of the run it is worth noting that the third, 25/1 shot Grand Vision, stayed with Boston Bob for much of the run-in to be only a length behind him in third. Grand Vision hasn't run since although the 4th, Lovecen (6L further back) has without distinction. During the race Boston Bob was unable to make any significant headway until deep into the race (he was still fifth last at halfway) where his class/ability took him past inferior horses despite him having to be niggled, cajoled and ridden some way out and the effects of making up this amount of ground took their toll as he had no more to give on the run-in. Chasing was always going to be much more favourable for this particular horse but unfortunately it appears that Boston Bob has been subject to training problems and he did not make the track until December 16 - quite late for an RSA candidate. His debut run was satisfactory as he encountered bottomless ground but again made stealthy late headway to be ridden and driven out in a tiring way to score by half a length from You Might Know Me, a horse subsequently beaten 22L on his next start (reported lame). Given that Boston Bob was found to be sore after the race it is possible that You Might Know Me was also feeling the effects in that race of his second placing just fifteen days earlier. Most of the expectation surrounding Boston Bob last season and this stems from gallops conducted by his trainer with the horse in company with Hurricane Fly and Quevega where Boston Bob was very comfortable. This gave connections evidence to suggest a high level of residual class but problems have arisen in guiding the horse to the heights they think capable. He reappeared for his second chase start in the premier Irish RSA Chase trial the G1 Moriarty (21f, Soft/Heavy) which he won in a blanket finish. Up in class his lack of physical strength from a troubled season revealed itself as he dropped behind the leading trio turning in only to dig deep and rally to claw back the field and get up on the line. Some of that "gallop" class is undoubtedly present - to win a competitive Grade One chase on his second start shows that clearly enough - yet connections of two of his rivals would more than likely feel that a re-match over an extended three miles would be in their favour and those two rivals are indeed scheduled to re-oppose (Lyreen Legend [4th] and Lord Windermere [3rd]). Boston Bob has raced just six times over obstacles at the age of eight: whilst his mind is willing it is open to doubt as to whether his body will cope.
There are, however, two candidates with proven stamina, heart, the requisite class and preparation allied to an iron will.
Lord Windermere won three of his six starts over hurdles last season and managed a 4th placing in the G1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle. He has been steadily improving through the season over fences and, despite only recording one win to date in a beginners chase he has yet to be beaten by anything more than 3L including a half length second to Texas Jack in a G2 and his half a length third to Boston Bob and Texas Jack in the Moriarty. Lord Windermere jumped well on his chase debut over two miles. There was a brisk pace on and the main group began racing from some way out. He sat fourth until moving through to take up the lead on the approach to the last where he started to look green or was perhaps idling and he reached for the last, costing him momentum, and Dylan Ross - a more exclusive 2m horse - accelerated beyond him on the run-in, LW sticking to his task well for second, the pair 9L clear. His next assignment was over 20f on heavy ground but this time against Michael D'Haguenet, with the pair pulling 34L clear of Madam Bovary. In the race itself MDH led the six runners with two departing in rear after halfway. MDH can still be assessed as a very useful small-field soft ground chaser: LW was able to stay close to MDH throughout the race although MDH's residual class was decisive in this contest. LW was ridden to close in on MDH round the final bend where his jumping remained precise and despite being unable to get to the winner he again ran through the line strongly. Lord Windermere's chase win came in a 12-runner 19f Beginner's Chase, beating Marasonnien by 2L. He again had no problem with the racing pace being prominent throughout but there was a lot to like about the performance. Jumping well until losing momentum at the third last he moved through to round the bend with a tight clutch of other rivals and got into a dangerous looking barging match between two opponents. He didn't appear bothered by this at all and when extricated by his jockey galloped on powerfully to clear the last and stay on well to the line, again giving the impression of idling with ears pricked.
With experience and the desired win on his record connections then sent him to contest a G2 at Leopardstown in a race that had a very solid overall look to the contest, with the form reproduced in the G1 Moriarty next time - the most important Irish trial for the RSA. Here the winner was the smooth travelling Texas Jack, who had previously failed to stay the 3m in a strong renewal of the G1 Topaz Novices Chase won by Back In Focus. Rounding the final bend here, Lord Windermere was the only horse being asked to race behind the bridle but as all four main players were asked to race - Texas Jack (1st), Marito (3rd), Mount Benbulben (4th) - it was Lord Windermere who stayed the strongest despite being 2L down after the last to press the winner on the line. In the Dr. P.J. Moriarty Lord Windermere and Texas Jack almost identically reproduced their previous runs, with Lyreen Legend (form with Boston Bob over hurdles) ensuring a solid gallop deep into the race and Boston Bob prevailing by a nose on the line. For Lord Windermere, it was notable how he was raced much more prominently from the start until a serious blunder nearly uprooting the third fence and almost losing his jockey. As hinted at before, however, the mistake didn't appear to be a bother to him and he continued to jump effectively and move well to the head of affairs (appeared to travel to the last fence better in this race than any previously) where again he battled with Texas Jack, a horse perhaps more suited to the here and now conditions of this trip and race. This was a fine RSA trial all told and runners from this race are to be respected if pitching up for the RSA. First port of call when assessing Lord Windermere overall therefore is Weapon's Amnesty who won only one of his five chase starts - and that in a very weak race at Newcastle - prior to a devastating RSA performance. Weapons Amnesty was second in a G1 Knight Frank and second in the Moriarty, and Lord Windermere has a similar profile: despite being unraced as yet at 3m (Weapons Amnesty had done so twice) he runs as if a combination of better ground, bigger field and stronger pace will see him to best advantage (whereas Texas jack may prove best at intermediate trips). Lord Windermere has collected 97 furlongs of race conditioning through the season and this in part is no doubt due to a hugely positive attitude he displays in his racing. A fascinating contender who looks equipped to lie up with the pace and give everything he has until the winning post is behind him. With a battle likely, he is high on the list.
Described as "a bit immature but an improver" by his jockey the racecourse evidence to date backs up this impression of HADRIAN'S APPROACH. Overall his jumping is good but the strength of mind to see out his task has cost him in two of his chases: challenging four out when coming down in a contest won by the unbeaten Harry Topper and a slight mistake on landing two out at Newbury when starting to unwind that checked his momentum failing by a short head to reel in the useful Unioniste at Newbury (bumped late also). In between those still commendable efforts he stuck to his task well to be 9L second to Dynaste at Kempton. Hadrian's Approach clearly tries very hard. His experience this season will help him with his obstacles but once over them his heart and his will is not in question and he possesses an engine to run hard to the line, evidenced notably by his win at Ascot despite his best attempts to hinder that outcome. His trainer has a fine recent record in this race and has wasted no time in preparing his horse for what appears to have been his clearly defined target with three consecutive starts at 3m in strong company. From the Feltham he has 9L to make up on Dynaste but probably no novice in training (bar Simonsig) could have coped with the pace injected into the race by that rival especially on heavy ground and the key to his chances of reversing that distance lies in the grueling, resolute stamina test of an RSA following three months where his rival has been inactive but where he has gained further race fitness and experience. For a slightly immature horse there is always a question mark about the ability to handle the heat of a G1 contest on an undulating track around which he has yet to be tested. This would be the biggest concern when assessing Hadrian's Approach, but both his form and progressive chase record indicate he is high on the list of contenders for this race, with a clear round perhaps highest of all.
Selections: HADRIAN'S APPROACH e/w & Lord Windermere e/w.
** Assessment of Lyreen Legend has been delayed until confirmed for the race: he is held by Back In Focus, himself not a certain starter.
A wide open renewal featuring a clutch of talented horses that offer an eclectic mix of ages, preparations and abilities. Yet to the diversity of their profiles corresponds the near uniformity of what they offer at heart: strong, progressive staying metal. The exception to this may well be the favourite, Dynaste, who also has the option of the Jewson Novices Chase. As a grey with eye-catching speed and a supporting role behind Big Buck's, Dynaste is obviously compared to Grand Crus. The latter was the better hurdler and whilst Dynaste may do better over fences whether that will be seen as early as now, in an RSA Chase, is debatable. The demands of the race force horses to race from a considerable way out which makes racing behind the bridle a necessity: once the smoother running is done it is then all about heart, desire, pain and force of will over a brutal staying distance for a novice. This does not describe the racecourse evidence for Dynaste. He "quickened" away from Fingal Bay and an early-season Unioniste impressively over 21f in November and was still on the bridle when left in the lead four out at Newbury over 20f, allowing the resolute stayer Court In Motion (received 7lbs) to within 5L of him as a courtesy. The choice to go for the Feltham was an interesting one given that in so doing they were in part committing to the same route and preparation for the Festival as that chosen for Grand Crus. For Dynaste, the Feltham ground was heavy with two fences omitted and from a moderate gallop he injected pace nothing in the race could handle four out and settled the contest in seconds, eventually coasting home 9L clear of Hadrian's Approach. None of which will really matter when, faced with opponents primed for their big day also, they start to race and gallop and stay and won't go away: at that point somewhere after coming down the hill Dynaste will breathe and have no more to give whilst others will still be rolling and asking themselves to find even more for pressure. He would stand a much better chance in the Jewson but as a cautionary note overall it can be noted that David Pipe has saddled only one winner from 59 attempts in non-handicaps at the Festival.
Despite being a mere five years of age the French-bred Unioniste offers the prospect of more resolute staying power. He had already had eight racecourse starts prior to winning on debut as a 4yo at Aintree and then bumped into Dynaste in a small field on good to soft ground. The first ever 4yo winner of the prestigious December Gold Cup Handicap he beat the honest Walkon by 11L (21f, Heavy) to leave no room at all for underestimations of his ability and running power (by the strong stamina influence Dom Alco). Perhaps due to the presence of strong stayer Rocky Creek in the same stable that horse went to the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot (and won) and Unioniste was sent to Newbury for a five runner affair predominantly against the Feltham runner-up Hadrian's Approach over three miles on soft ground. He won all-out after Hadrian's Approach pecked two out costing him momentum just as he was beginning to really start rolling into his stride. Unioniste for his part kept galloping to the line for another excellent victory but it did suggest that, at this stage in his career, another half a furlong in a better race involving more of a war may not suit him ideally. He also has the option of the Jewson Novices Chase which, given his impressive win in December, may make more sense but his trainer seems intent on this race where his runners of late have failed to make any impression. Unioniste is clearly talented but without the weight concession enjoyed by Star De Mohaison he has a formidable task before him.
Boston Bob has hit the Festival podium already in defeat to the smart (ill-fated) Brindisi Breeze. In positive terms, the Albert Bartlett of 2011 was won by the 2012 RSA Chase winner despite the form of the race being poor. The race can be used as a stepping point for future staying chasers and Boston Bob is very much in the mould of a big strong staying type over fences. In that sense a 2L defeat on the quickest ground he had encountered all season by some way is a good run. However in terms of assessing the residual class of the run it is worth noting that the third, 25/1 shot Grand Vision, stayed with Boston Bob for much of the run-in to be only a length behind him in third. Grand Vision hasn't run since although the 4th, Lovecen (6L further back) has without distinction. During the race Boston Bob was unable to make any significant headway until deep into the race (he was still fifth last at halfway) where his class/ability took him past inferior horses despite him having to be niggled, cajoled and ridden some way out and the effects of making up this amount of ground took their toll as he had no more to give on the run-in. Chasing was always going to be much more favourable for this particular horse but unfortunately it appears that Boston Bob has been subject to training problems and he did not make the track until December 16 - quite late for an RSA candidate. His debut run was satisfactory as he encountered bottomless ground but again made stealthy late headway to be ridden and driven out in a tiring way to score by half a length from You Might Know Me, a horse subsequently beaten 22L on his next start (reported lame). Given that Boston Bob was found to be sore after the race it is possible that You Might Know Me was also feeling the effects in that race of his second placing just fifteen days earlier. Most of the expectation surrounding Boston Bob last season and this stems from gallops conducted by his trainer with the horse in company with Hurricane Fly and Quevega where Boston Bob was very comfortable. This gave connections evidence to suggest a high level of residual class but problems have arisen in guiding the horse to the heights they think capable. He reappeared for his second chase start in the premier Irish RSA Chase trial the G1 Moriarty (21f, Soft/Heavy) which he won in a blanket finish. Up in class his lack of physical strength from a troubled season revealed itself as he dropped behind the leading trio turning in only to dig deep and rally to claw back the field and get up on the line. Some of that "gallop" class is undoubtedly present - to win a competitive Grade One chase on his second start shows that clearly enough - yet connections of two of his rivals would more than likely feel that a re-match over an extended three miles would be in their favour and those two rivals are indeed scheduled to re-oppose (Lyreen Legend [4th] and Lord Windermere [3rd]). Boston Bob has raced just six times over obstacles at the age of eight: whilst his mind is willing it is open to doubt as to whether his body will cope.
There are, however, two candidates with proven stamina, heart, the requisite class and preparation allied to an iron will.
Lord Windermere won three of his six starts over hurdles last season and managed a 4th placing in the G1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle. He has been steadily improving through the season over fences and, despite only recording one win to date in a beginners chase he has yet to be beaten by anything more than 3L including a half length second to Texas Jack in a G2 and his half a length third to Boston Bob and Texas Jack in the Moriarty. Lord Windermere jumped well on his chase debut over two miles. There was a brisk pace on and the main group began racing from some way out. He sat fourth until moving through to take up the lead on the approach to the last where he started to look green or was perhaps idling and he reached for the last, costing him momentum, and Dylan Ross - a more exclusive 2m horse - accelerated beyond him on the run-in, LW sticking to his task well for second, the pair 9L clear. His next assignment was over 20f on heavy ground but this time against Michael D'Haguenet, with the pair pulling 34L clear of Madam Bovary. In the race itself MDH led the six runners with two departing in rear after halfway. MDH can still be assessed as a very useful small-field soft ground chaser: LW was able to stay close to MDH throughout the race although MDH's residual class was decisive in this contest. LW was ridden to close in on MDH round the final bend where his jumping remained precise and despite being unable to get to the winner he again ran through the line strongly. Lord Windermere's chase win came in a 12-runner 19f Beginner's Chase, beating Marasonnien by 2L. He again had no problem with the racing pace being prominent throughout but there was a lot to like about the performance. Jumping well until losing momentum at the third last he moved through to round the bend with a tight clutch of other rivals and got into a dangerous looking barging match between two opponents. He didn't appear bothered by this at all and when extricated by his jockey galloped on powerfully to clear the last and stay on well to the line, again giving the impression of idling with ears pricked.
With experience and the desired win on his record connections then sent him to contest a G2 at Leopardstown in a race that had a very solid overall look to the contest, with the form reproduced in the G1 Moriarty next time - the most important Irish trial for the RSA. Here the winner was the smooth travelling Texas Jack, who had previously failed to stay the 3m in a strong renewal of the G1 Topaz Novices Chase won by Back In Focus. Rounding the final bend here, Lord Windermere was the only horse being asked to race behind the bridle but as all four main players were asked to race - Texas Jack (1st), Marito (3rd), Mount Benbulben (4th) - it was Lord Windermere who stayed the strongest despite being 2L down after the last to press the winner on the line. In the Dr. P.J. Moriarty Lord Windermere and Texas Jack almost identically reproduced their previous runs, with Lyreen Legend (form with Boston Bob over hurdles) ensuring a solid gallop deep into the race and Boston Bob prevailing by a nose on the line. For Lord Windermere, it was notable how he was raced much more prominently from the start until a serious blunder nearly uprooting the third fence and almost losing his jockey. As hinted at before, however, the mistake didn't appear to be a bother to him and he continued to jump effectively and move well to the head of affairs (appeared to travel to the last fence better in this race than any previously) where again he battled with Texas Jack, a horse perhaps more suited to the here and now conditions of this trip and race. This was a fine RSA trial all told and runners from this race are to be respected if pitching up for the RSA. First port of call when assessing Lord Windermere overall therefore is Weapon's Amnesty who won only one of his five chase starts - and that in a very weak race at Newcastle - prior to a devastating RSA performance. Weapons Amnesty was second in a G1 Knight Frank and second in the Moriarty, and Lord Windermere has a similar profile: despite being unraced as yet at 3m (Weapons Amnesty had done so twice) he runs as if a combination of better ground, bigger field and stronger pace will see him to best advantage (whereas Texas jack may prove best at intermediate trips). Lord Windermere has collected 97 furlongs of race conditioning through the season and this in part is no doubt due to a hugely positive attitude he displays in his racing. A fascinating contender who looks equipped to lie up with the pace and give everything he has until the winning post is behind him. With a battle likely, he is high on the list.
Described as "a bit immature but an improver" by his jockey the racecourse evidence to date backs up this impression of HADRIAN'S APPROACH. Overall his jumping is good but the strength of mind to see out his task has cost him in two of his chases: challenging four out when coming down in a contest won by the unbeaten Harry Topper and a slight mistake on landing two out at Newbury when starting to unwind that checked his momentum failing by a short head to reel in the useful Unioniste at Newbury (bumped late also). In between those still commendable efforts he stuck to his task well to be 9L second to Dynaste at Kempton. Hadrian's Approach clearly tries very hard. His experience this season will help him with his obstacles but once over them his heart and his will is not in question and he possesses an engine to run hard to the line, evidenced notably by his win at Ascot despite his best attempts to hinder that outcome. His trainer has a fine recent record in this race and has wasted no time in preparing his horse for what appears to have been his clearly defined target with three consecutive starts at 3m in strong company. From the Feltham he has 9L to make up on Dynaste but probably no novice in training (bar Simonsig) could have coped with the pace injected into the race by that rival especially on heavy ground and the key to his chances of reversing that distance lies in the grueling, resolute stamina test of an RSA following three months where his rival has been inactive but where he has gained further race fitness and experience. For a slightly immature horse there is always a question mark about the ability to handle the heat of a G1 contest on an undulating track around which he has yet to be tested. This would be the biggest concern when assessing Hadrian's Approach, but both his form and progressive chase record indicate he is high on the list of contenders for this race, with a clear round perhaps highest of all.
Selections: HADRIAN'S APPROACH e/w & Lord Windermere e/w.
Wednesday 20 February 2013
2013 Champion Hurdle - Race Day Thoughts
Initial Thoughts - Race Day
* Assumed ground is g/s.
A race shorn of a potential star attraction. Darlan's physical progression over the summer ignited his high levels of residual class at Kempton and he was in the process of confirming rough estimates of stardom when coming down at Doncaster. In theory his second in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle should now be helping to confirm the prospects of Cinders And Ashes who beat him twelve months ago but the progression in one has not been replicated in the other. It is true that Cinders And Ashes would prefer to bounce off a solid surface but even so he has looked laboured and slightly forlorn during both his 12L defeats this season. He is capable of better and if the ground did dry out sufficiently to put a twinkle in his eye he would regain some place claims; he did win the Supreme quite easily last March.
Binocular probably did have the world at his feet very early in his career but the world just kept rolling away slightly making it hard work to keep it under control. From potential superstar to frustration to enigma he is simply just a very good Grade One two mile hurdler and his Cheltenham record reflects this: second in a Supreme, third in a Champion Hurdle, winner of the 2010 Champion Hurdle, fourth in a Champion Hurdle. His G1 winning talents surfaced as recently as the Christmas Hurdle in 2011 where he battled hard in a ding dong affair with Rock On Ruby only for the defeated horse to progress emphatically beyond his elder where it mattered most three months later. Binocular's opening gambit this season saw him do battle with Thousand Stars behind Hurricane Fly in Ireland and he will no doubt be primed for what could be his last festival appearance. At the age of nine, however, the legs are unlikely to carry him any further into the race than they did last season.
With younger, stronger legs and a seemingly resolute mental strength, Zarkandar heads many a shortlist for the big prize. It is easy to see why with seven wins from nine starts over hurdles on a variety of going. His two defeats have both come in Grade One company. Most will put that down to the reports that last season he was not physically prepared for a campaign at the highest level. A Triumph Hurdle winner and still only a 5yo, he didn't reappear until February where he won the Betfair Hurdle so there is probably some substance to those reports - he apparently had a "tiny fracture" in his hind leg at one stage. He was physically sound enough to win the most competitive handicap of the season and to continue his work with a fifth in the Champion Hurdle and a Fall at Aintree. As with Hurricane Fly that season he was probably able to run and give his all but his overall strength and physical readiness may have been shy of ideal. With a much better summer of growth, Zarkandar came out of the blocks early and has won all three races this season. This would indicate a steeply progressive and/or impressive profile but the performances haven't quite set the pulse racing. Although giving away lumps of weight he travelled all over Prospect Wells (regressive this season) but only beat him a neck. He showed tenacity, running power and stamina in the International on deep ground but despite winning by 2L it was Grandouet, after a year off, that came out of the race the better horse. In the Kingwell he outclassed Khyber Kim but back in third Balder Succes was roughly the same distance away again as he had been three months earlier. The question really is how will Zarkandar make up the 7L he was beaten by Rock On Ruby last March. He possesses high class running power, has a superb wins to runs ratio/mentality and is strong at the end of his races but all that is matched by Rock On Ruby who has that 7L verdict over him. On heavy ground in December Rock On Ruby got Zarkandar off the bridle as they matched strides together and both rival jockeys (Geraghty and Walsh) commented how big and relatively unfit Rock On Ruby looked for his debut. The deep concern remains with Zarkandar that on the quicker 2m course and on better ground he will be found wanting for galloping speed and tactical pace: lest we forget Rock On Ruby burned away from a horse of Overturn's running power rounding the bend last year when it was happening all too quick for Zarkandar. Deep ground and a strong pace war would appear to be necessary for Zarkandar's win/place prospects and neither look likely.
The trainer of Hurricane Fly was never really happy with his charge last season either. Although describing his win prior to the Festival as perhaps his best ever it later emerged that Hurricane Fly did not come back in good condition from his job as non-stop winning machine of the 2010/11 season. For his trainer, the Irish star struggled to retain his strength during training, was never really happy with his work and could not progress him to a racing condition until January that year so perhaps it was a trainer's relief rather than the horse's run that Willie Mullins was referring to. As with Zarkandar he no doubt ran his race in Ireland despite not being one hundred percent but the rigours of the previous season had taken their toll and he was unable to progress through the season, finishing two places and one length in front of Zarkandar but two places and five and half lengths behind the winner before winning unimpressively in Punchestown. Prior to his win in 2011 Hurricane Fly had beaten the same horse, Solwhit, on all four of his prior starts and his win, although thrilling, came against a stayer who has subsequently regressed and two other stayers who ran in the World Hurdle the following year. At the age of nine Hurricane Fly is not improving so to become the first horse since Comedy Of Errors in 1975 to regain his crown something has to have changed. It is true to say that this season he appears to be at championship level in terms of race fitness, training and preparation but he still runs as he ever did and more so than before it may be that soft ground is crucial to his chances. Hurricane Fly always runs with much the same style: a steadily progressive running pace that is maintained deep into the race at a level that most other horses cannot match. With advancing years and the scars of previous campaigns that supremely high class galloping speed is unlikely to be enough against anything in the race with 2m elite level pace, something he did not face in 2011. Soft ground would significantly improve his chances because he has always sluiced through deep ground effortlessly whereas many two milers struggle on that surface and the raw pace of any younger, speedier rivals would be blunted. The question then arises of which horses in the field possess that raw two mile speed and class that would allow them to gallop comfortably at that level and pressure him to weaken off or behind the bridle. There are two candidates.
Not least of which is the current Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby. From last year's race alone it was evident just how superior Rock On Ruby was at every stage of the race. He ran comfortably with the early pace being set by Overturn and Celestial Halo, travelled powerfully to maintain his advantage over his market rivals, quickened better than anything off the bend and stayed on strongly to break the line for an emphatic win. With the fifth, fourth and third re-opposing he only needs to reproduce that performance to have a huge chance of retaining his crown. His record at 2m on good or good to soft ground is exceptional and he is a proven Cheltenham specialist. Even over 21f in his novice season he recorded some high class efforts, notably when second to Bobs Worth and when so narrowly denied in the Neptune by First Lieutenant. Prior to winning the Champion Hurdle last season he raced twice, winning a handicap impressively giving away lumps of weight and fighting a searing battle with Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle losing out only narrowly before being given a break and running at the Festival fresh. This season he has been earmarked for a two-run campaign but with emphasis on March only: his trainer knows what he can do so the task is to get him to the track in peak physical condition. His first run was delayed due to the deluge of rain and flooded tracks but they could not wait forever and he reappeared on heavy ground against two heavyweight rivals. Zarkandar had displayed his well-being already and Grandouet had won the race the previous year. Rock On Ruby moved well through the race and straightening off the hill he was travelling better than his race-fit rival. They enjoined each other in battle (shades of going toe to toe with Binocular last season) before Zarkandar asserted over the last as Rock On Ruby blew up, leaving Grandouet (himself absent for a year) to press the winner up the hill. A pleasing reappearance was then cemented in unfortunate circumstances at Doncaster on his second start. In that race Countrywide Flame - bouncing back from a below par effort in the Christmas Hurdle having won the Fighting Fifth comfortably - set off in front of his three rivals. Rock On Ruby tracked him closely enough, joined him three out and started to out-gallop his rival on the run to the last under the urgings of his jockey but was given a crack of the whip also. He jumped the last in front and stayed on to keep Countrywide Flame 3L adrift. Darlan's shuddering fall betrayed the fact that he was cantering in behind approaching the last and would certainly have eye-balled Rock On Ruby but it is open to question how much further ahead of the Champion Hurdler he would have moved. It was another pleasing run from Rock On Ruby despite the sad end to that day. It suggests that the reigning Champion Hurdler will be at or extremely close to his peak on the day and it will therefore take a fast two mile performance to beat him.
The horse most capable of producing explosive speed approaching the last hurdle is the horse that may have galloped with Darlan at home. Having missed the race last year through injury, GRANDOUET becomes the star attraction. What gave the impression of a potential star performance came, in part, in the International Hurdle of 2011 on good to soft ground where he cantered all over the eventual Champion Hurdle second before putting the race to bed decisively after the last. If nothing else, it proved that he "gets up the hill" really well. His run in this season's International Hurdle may have been an even better performance. In 2011 he was in the form of his life (despite falling two out when running all over Celestial Halo) and so his performance was part of a naturally progressive build-up. In contrast, his 2012 run came after over a year off the racecourse, on tiring, heavy ground, conceding 4lbs to a race-fit and primed rival in Zarkandar and with a Champion Hurdler in the field albeit Rock On Ruby was having a gentle opener. What caught the attention most was not the relatively stylish (given the circumstances) way he moved into contention - he is usually visually stunning to watch - but the way in which, as Zarkandar piled on the stamina up the hill, Grandouet actually left Rock On Ruby behind and started to make ground on the climb to the winning line to emerge from the race as the best horse at the weights. On better ground and on a different course to the International that is around half a furlong shorter, favouring speed, on known form, visual impression and potential he is all but guaranteed to be running all over the field approaching the last, after which his training and preparation will be tested to the full. Grandouet's tactical pace is unique to this race: he is the ultimate stalker and nearly every in-running comment from his races says "tracked leader(s)"; it is different to being held up and coming with a sustained but longer gallop so some of his rivals will be all out to track him and the leaders will be looking around for him deep into the race. Grandouet has the potential to ignite his residual class in the biggest race of all. Now is his time.
Selections: GRANDOUET e/w & Rock On Ruby e/w.
* Assumed ground is g/s.
A race shorn of a potential star attraction. Darlan's physical progression over the summer ignited his high levels of residual class at Kempton and he was in the process of confirming rough estimates of stardom when coming down at Doncaster. In theory his second in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle should now be helping to confirm the prospects of Cinders And Ashes who beat him twelve months ago but the progression in one has not been replicated in the other. It is true that Cinders And Ashes would prefer to bounce off a solid surface but even so he has looked laboured and slightly forlorn during both his 12L defeats this season. He is capable of better and if the ground did dry out sufficiently to put a twinkle in his eye he would regain some place claims; he did win the Supreme quite easily last March.
Binocular probably did have the world at his feet very early in his career but the world just kept rolling away slightly making it hard work to keep it under control. From potential superstar to frustration to enigma he is simply just a very good Grade One two mile hurdler and his Cheltenham record reflects this: second in a Supreme, third in a Champion Hurdle, winner of the 2010 Champion Hurdle, fourth in a Champion Hurdle. His G1 winning talents surfaced as recently as the Christmas Hurdle in 2011 where he battled hard in a ding dong affair with Rock On Ruby only for the defeated horse to progress emphatically beyond his elder where it mattered most three months later. Binocular's opening gambit this season saw him do battle with Thousand Stars behind Hurricane Fly in Ireland and he will no doubt be primed for what could be his last festival appearance. At the age of nine, however, the legs are unlikely to carry him any further into the race than they did last season.
With younger, stronger legs and a seemingly resolute mental strength, Zarkandar heads many a shortlist for the big prize. It is easy to see why with seven wins from nine starts over hurdles on a variety of going. His two defeats have both come in Grade One company. Most will put that down to the reports that last season he was not physically prepared for a campaign at the highest level. A Triumph Hurdle winner and still only a 5yo, he didn't reappear until February where he won the Betfair Hurdle so there is probably some substance to those reports - he apparently had a "tiny fracture" in his hind leg at one stage. He was physically sound enough to win the most competitive handicap of the season and to continue his work with a fifth in the Champion Hurdle and a Fall at Aintree. As with Hurricane Fly that season he was probably able to run and give his all but his overall strength and physical readiness may have been shy of ideal. With a much better summer of growth, Zarkandar came out of the blocks early and has won all three races this season. This would indicate a steeply progressive and/or impressive profile but the performances haven't quite set the pulse racing. Although giving away lumps of weight he travelled all over Prospect Wells (regressive this season) but only beat him a neck. He showed tenacity, running power and stamina in the International on deep ground but despite winning by 2L it was Grandouet, after a year off, that came out of the race the better horse. In the Kingwell he outclassed Khyber Kim but back in third Balder Succes was roughly the same distance away again as he had been three months earlier. The question really is how will Zarkandar make up the 7L he was beaten by Rock On Ruby last March. He possesses high class running power, has a superb wins to runs ratio/mentality and is strong at the end of his races but all that is matched by Rock On Ruby who has that 7L verdict over him. On heavy ground in December Rock On Ruby got Zarkandar off the bridle as they matched strides together and both rival jockeys (Geraghty and Walsh) commented how big and relatively unfit Rock On Ruby looked for his debut. The deep concern remains with Zarkandar that on the quicker 2m course and on better ground he will be found wanting for galloping speed and tactical pace: lest we forget Rock On Ruby burned away from a horse of Overturn's running power rounding the bend last year when it was happening all too quick for Zarkandar. Deep ground and a strong pace war would appear to be necessary for Zarkandar's win/place prospects and neither look likely.
The trainer of Hurricane Fly was never really happy with his charge last season either. Although describing his win prior to the Festival as perhaps his best ever it later emerged that Hurricane Fly did not come back in good condition from his job as non-stop winning machine of the 2010/11 season. For his trainer, the Irish star struggled to retain his strength during training, was never really happy with his work and could not progress him to a racing condition until January that year so perhaps it was a trainer's relief rather than the horse's run that Willie Mullins was referring to. As with Zarkandar he no doubt ran his race in Ireland despite not being one hundred percent but the rigours of the previous season had taken their toll and he was unable to progress through the season, finishing two places and one length in front of Zarkandar but two places and five and half lengths behind the winner before winning unimpressively in Punchestown. Prior to his win in 2011 Hurricane Fly had beaten the same horse, Solwhit, on all four of his prior starts and his win, although thrilling, came against a stayer who has subsequently regressed and two other stayers who ran in the World Hurdle the following year. At the age of nine Hurricane Fly is not improving so to become the first horse since Comedy Of Errors in 1975 to regain his crown something has to have changed. It is true to say that this season he appears to be at championship level in terms of race fitness, training and preparation but he still runs as he ever did and more so than before it may be that soft ground is crucial to his chances. Hurricane Fly always runs with much the same style: a steadily progressive running pace that is maintained deep into the race at a level that most other horses cannot match. With advancing years and the scars of previous campaigns that supremely high class galloping speed is unlikely to be enough against anything in the race with 2m elite level pace, something he did not face in 2011. Soft ground would significantly improve his chances because he has always sluiced through deep ground effortlessly whereas many two milers struggle on that surface and the raw pace of any younger, speedier rivals would be blunted. The question then arises of which horses in the field possess that raw two mile speed and class that would allow them to gallop comfortably at that level and pressure him to weaken off or behind the bridle. There are two candidates.
Not least of which is the current Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby. From last year's race alone it was evident just how superior Rock On Ruby was at every stage of the race. He ran comfortably with the early pace being set by Overturn and Celestial Halo, travelled powerfully to maintain his advantage over his market rivals, quickened better than anything off the bend and stayed on strongly to break the line for an emphatic win. With the fifth, fourth and third re-opposing he only needs to reproduce that performance to have a huge chance of retaining his crown. His record at 2m on good or good to soft ground is exceptional and he is a proven Cheltenham specialist. Even over 21f in his novice season he recorded some high class efforts, notably when second to Bobs Worth and when so narrowly denied in the Neptune by First Lieutenant. Prior to winning the Champion Hurdle last season he raced twice, winning a handicap impressively giving away lumps of weight and fighting a searing battle with Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle losing out only narrowly before being given a break and running at the Festival fresh. This season he has been earmarked for a two-run campaign but with emphasis on March only: his trainer knows what he can do so the task is to get him to the track in peak physical condition. His first run was delayed due to the deluge of rain and flooded tracks but they could not wait forever and he reappeared on heavy ground against two heavyweight rivals. Zarkandar had displayed his well-being already and Grandouet had won the race the previous year. Rock On Ruby moved well through the race and straightening off the hill he was travelling better than his race-fit rival. They enjoined each other in battle (shades of going toe to toe with Binocular last season) before Zarkandar asserted over the last as Rock On Ruby blew up, leaving Grandouet (himself absent for a year) to press the winner up the hill. A pleasing reappearance was then cemented in unfortunate circumstances at Doncaster on his second start. In that race Countrywide Flame - bouncing back from a below par effort in the Christmas Hurdle having won the Fighting Fifth comfortably - set off in front of his three rivals. Rock On Ruby tracked him closely enough, joined him three out and started to out-gallop his rival on the run to the last under the urgings of his jockey but was given a crack of the whip also. He jumped the last in front and stayed on to keep Countrywide Flame 3L adrift. Darlan's shuddering fall betrayed the fact that he was cantering in behind approaching the last and would certainly have eye-balled Rock On Ruby but it is open to question how much further ahead of the Champion Hurdler he would have moved. It was another pleasing run from Rock On Ruby despite the sad end to that day. It suggests that the reigning Champion Hurdler will be at or extremely close to his peak on the day and it will therefore take a fast two mile performance to beat him.
The horse most capable of producing explosive speed approaching the last hurdle is the horse that may have galloped with Darlan at home. Having missed the race last year through injury, GRANDOUET becomes the star attraction. What gave the impression of a potential star performance came, in part, in the International Hurdle of 2011 on good to soft ground where he cantered all over the eventual Champion Hurdle second before putting the race to bed decisively after the last. If nothing else, it proved that he "gets up the hill" really well. His run in this season's International Hurdle may have been an even better performance. In 2011 he was in the form of his life (despite falling two out when running all over Celestial Halo) and so his performance was part of a naturally progressive build-up. In contrast, his 2012 run came after over a year off the racecourse, on tiring, heavy ground, conceding 4lbs to a race-fit and primed rival in Zarkandar and with a Champion Hurdler in the field albeit Rock On Ruby was having a gentle opener. What caught the attention most was not the relatively stylish (given the circumstances) way he moved into contention - he is usually visually stunning to watch - but the way in which, as Zarkandar piled on the stamina up the hill, Grandouet actually left Rock On Ruby behind and started to make ground on the climb to the winning line to emerge from the race as the best horse at the weights. On better ground and on a different course to the International that is around half a furlong shorter, favouring speed, on known form, visual impression and potential he is all but guaranteed to be running all over the field approaching the last, after which his training and preparation will be tested to the full. Grandouet's tactical pace is unique to this race: he is the ultimate stalker and nearly every in-running comment from his races says "tracked leader(s)"; it is different to being held up and coming with a sustained but longer gallop so some of his rivals will be all out to track him and the leaders will be looking around for him deep into the race. Grandouet has the potential to ignite his residual class in the biggest race of all. Now is his time.
Selections: GRANDOUET e/w & Rock On Ruby e/w.
Monday 11 February 2013
2013 Gold Cup: Raceday Thoughts
Initial Thoughts - Race Day
* Assumed ground in advance is g/s
**Assumed race for First Lieutenant is the Ryanair Chase. If running here he would not be considered as capable of winning/placing in the race (for reasons highlighted).
The 2013 Gold Cup is a strong, open renewal with four horses vying for podium positions at the top of the market. Between them those horses have won (in no particular order) an RSA Chase, a Hennessy Gold Cup, two King Georges, a Gold Cup, a Jewson Novices Chase, an Irish Hennessy, a Betfair Chase and two Aon/Denman Chases.
Another measure of this strength in depth is that a dual King George winner and former winner of this race is only fourth favourite. The remarkable career of Long Run, still only eight years of age, stares down yet another tough assignment. He has a quite extraordinary mental strength - never out of the first three in 24 career starts is staggering - allied to a one-pace elite level G1 running power that only Kauto Star could better around Kempton. The King George is Long Run: no breathers, no let-up, no hiding place but a searing examination of will and ability which he has passed even in defeat. At Cheltenham (form: 3313) his Gold Cup win stands out: brilliant on the day it has to be worked into calculations for balance that Kauto Star and Denman were perhaps not at their very peak that day leaving a fair assessment to suggest that he is much better suited to Kempton than Cheltenham. The latter places more demand on a tactical ability to change through the gears along undulations without losing running rhythm. When the contest is weak enough, and some Gold Cups are, none of that matters. The ill-fated Synchronised struggled manfully through much of the race last year but his sheer force of will and his ability would not be denied. The question then becomes can Long Run overcome three talented rivals on a course that may not maximise his powers and regain his crown?
Corresponding to the possible surprise at the place in the market of a former champion is that the horse leading the market is one that will have had only one run in the past twelve months: a most unusual profile for a Gold Cup favourite. Bobs Worth and The Festival are synonymous. He is one of two horses attempting a Festival hattrick in the race. Not as powerfully built as Long run, Bobs Worth has a similar iron will finishing in the first three in all 11 career starts. He is, however, more suited to the demands of Cheltenham and is unbeaten at the track. Although a resolute stayer he possesses tactical pace to such an extent that he beat the future Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby en route to his win over hurdles at the 2011 Festival. Part of this ability is innate class of course but another part is his gradually progressive run style: through his races he attempts to pick up the pace of the leaders from wherever he is positioned and then continually surge and grind in repeated waves, making him an extremely strong and tough rival at the end of his races. This was the calling card of his Hennessy win where he beat Tidal Bay (gave 6lbs) and First Lieutenant (much further than he did in the RSA) carrying 11-6. On the bare narrative his only run this season appears to give Bobs Worth the best chance in the Gold Cup: Tidal Bay would win the G1 Lexus Chase in Ireland on his next start beating none other than First Lieutenant, suggesting Bobs Worth holds more than enough aces for a title challenge in G1 company. Problems with this narrative abound, however. The most glaring problem is that both Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant are both unlikely to even contest the Gold Cup: Tidal Bay is set to run over hurdles before a Grand National bid with First Lieutenant dropping down in trip to contest the Ryanair Chase. With Bobs Worth's only run in open company being a handicap win he has to be judged accordingly. Tidal Bay was giving him 6lbs in the Hennessy at the age of 12 and the third was a palpable non-stayer at Newbury and a horse he had already beaten in the RSA. The Lexus Chase itself doesn't offer much in the way of scaffolding support for the overall form lines either: The third and second, Flemenstar and First Lieutenant, engaged each other in a contest of who can dramatically shorten their stride the quickest on the run to the line giving Tidal Bay his winning chance and allowing Sir Des Champs to close rapidly (relatively) in 4th for a blanket finish. Tidal Bay's effort was as admirable as it was exhilarating but he beat a horse in First Lieutenant who was suffering his eighth straight defeat and is below top class and a now-clear non-stayer in Flemenstar, with Sir Des Champs not at his best and improving to land the Irish Hennessy on his next start. What Bobs Worth has achieved in open company from just one run is therefore open to serious question and for a horse that (his jockey confirms) gives absolutely everything he has in his races it is a concern that his physical preparation has left him short of the conditioning one would like to see for a such a gruelling race at elite level. His mind will be driving him on relentlessly but his body may not cope with a four and a half month race absence. Bobs Worth is high class, resolute and brilliant at Cheltenham but he faces off against rivals with superior form and physical conditioning and as such they appeal more as more likely winners.
High on that list is Sir Des Champs. Unbeaten over hurdles, unbeaten in his novice season over fences and a dual Festival winner in the process he entered the season with an aura of expectancy that was out of kilter with the intentions of his trainer and connections, who from the very outset made it clear that a progressive campaign towards his 'one big day' in March would be his signature. This has indeed transpired although the substance of his campaign is still very much worthy of consideration. A physically strong looking and now powerfully built horse, Sir Des Champs began in lacklustre fashion befitting a 'starting point' seasonal debut. Flemenstar ran out a ready winner with his customary effusiveness but Sir Des Champs wasn't disgraced despite not threatening from some way out. More was expected on his next start in the Lexus Chase and improvement was forthcoming but it was stunted by some uncharacteristically poor jumping. Jumping the last with Tidal Bay his rival finished the better to overhaul the two leaders but Sir Des Champs himself finished with effect to claim fourth, beaten under a length. For the Lexus to make sense as a Gold Cup trial and as part of a progressive campaign Sir Des Champs had to continue his development on his next start in the Irish Hennessy. After all, Tidal Bay would be diverted away from the Gold Cup, as would the second who was well beaten in the Hennessy at Newbury, and the third was a clear non-stayer. At Leopardstown in February he claimed his G1 win in open company, jumping with far more alacrity and staying on with great resolution to reverse placings with Flemenstar who again failed to stay the 3m and never threatened after the last fence but who again looked well within his comfort zone when there was petrol in the tank. Part of the pre-season expectations for Sir Des Champs emerged from his unbeaten novice season culminating in an impressive looking win in the G2 Jewson Novices Chase. He moved through that race like much the best horse and despite getting in a little close to the last two fences asserted his superiority readily up the run in. Strictly speaking however that race fell apart somewhat with the likes of Peddler's Cross (not physically sound and out of form) and Cristal Bonus (not physically sound) his main rivals in the market and the likes of For Non Stop, Michael Flips and Solix a league below. It was left to Champion Court to put up any kind of challenge and despite a brave effort from the front he was outclassed: his subsequent form this season has not been noteworthy. The clearly defined training schedule for Sir Des Champs, backed up by his progressive performances on the track, indicate further improvement to come. As a dual Festival winner on good ground and hailing from a top class stable he is set to turn up for the race as an improving seasonal G1 winner with peak physical conditioning. However for all those positives it can also be said that the extent of his progression in open company resides in reversing form narrowly with a blatant non-stayer and as such he is yet to set the pulse racing with any one performance. High class and a leading player his win chance may only be compromised by the presence of a superstar in the race, or simply a horse with more innate class.
The only horse that aspires to that category is SILVINIACO CONTI. He stands somewhat alone as an island speck in a large, deep sea of Cheltenham specialists and this is perhaps the reason as to why he is the longest price of the three up-and-comers to the Blue Ribband. Yet his sole visit to the track saw him run a screamer. He had already thrashed Captain Chris by 10L in the G2 Persian War and Karabak by 7L in the G2 Ascot Hurdle: at Cheltenham he faced off with Menorah and Cue Card in the G2 International Hurdle, giving both horses 4lbs over 2m1f he finished just half a length behind Cue Card with the pair 4L behind a peak-form Menorah. Now he returns over fences and a trip of 3m2.5f. His novice season was mixed before he got to Aintree: a storming run to take a close 2nd in the Feltham behind Grand Crus with Bobs Worth back in third he then maybe felt those exertions as he watched on (from 10L back) as Bobs Worth closed down Invictus at Ascot. That winter period pointed to his heightened potential within the Nicholls stable and his general level at the top end of novice chasers, something he had already hinted at with a blistering performance in the Rising Stars Chase at Wincanton. Still unfurnished, the decision was made to bypass the Festival - a sign of unusual patience from his trainer - which was handsomely rewarded at Aintree when beating Champion Court 13L in the Mildmay Novices Chase over 3m. Champion Court had just been beaten by Sir Des Champs at the Festival and does not stay 3m but Silviniaco Conti ran all over his field creating a high class visual impression to sign off the season. Since coming back from the summer off he has done nothing but resume a steep upward curve. On debut he outclassed his Charlie Hall rivals to win by 11L before showing excellent mental and physical strength to beat Long Run on deep ground in the Betfair Chase, jumping superbly, with the Gold Cup runner-up The Giant Bolster 7L back in third. That run no doubt confirmed him as a serious Gold Cup prospect, comfortably beating the second and third from March's race. As such, he was given the winter off and returned in the Denman chase in physical condition reportedly akin to a seasonal debut: again on soft ground he travelled powerfully, jumped superbly and stayed on stoutly to beat The Giant Bolster again by 7L this time giving him 4lbs. With further physical improvement and natural maturity following recovery from his preparation, Silviniaco Conti will line up in March with a thick stack of credentials: he has the best G1 form this season; he has beaten the Gold Cup second twice, easily; he has beaten the former Gold Cup winner and dual King George winner; he handles any ground; he is by Dom Alco and bred to stay well; his jumping is in the main flawless (natural, economical, accurate); he possesses the best tactical speed in the race; he is the only horse to leave a striking visual impression and record wide margin wins in Graded company. He is also the horse most likely to tread the standard, high class Gold Cup route next season: Betfair Chase, King George (maybe), Denman Chase, Gold Cup. Potentially, he is the superstar in the field: the island speck in the vast sea may just be the most threatening.
Selections: SILVINIACO CONTI e/w & Sir Des Champs e/w.
* Assumed ground in advance is g/s
**Assumed race for First Lieutenant is the Ryanair Chase. If running here he would not be considered as capable of winning/placing in the race (for reasons highlighted).
The 2013 Gold Cup is a strong, open renewal with four horses vying for podium positions at the top of the market. Between them those horses have won (in no particular order) an RSA Chase, a Hennessy Gold Cup, two King Georges, a Gold Cup, a Jewson Novices Chase, an Irish Hennessy, a Betfair Chase and two Aon/Denman Chases.
Another measure of this strength in depth is that a dual King George winner and former winner of this race is only fourth favourite. The remarkable career of Long Run, still only eight years of age, stares down yet another tough assignment. He has a quite extraordinary mental strength - never out of the first three in 24 career starts is staggering - allied to a one-pace elite level G1 running power that only Kauto Star could better around Kempton. The King George is Long Run: no breathers, no let-up, no hiding place but a searing examination of will and ability which he has passed even in defeat. At Cheltenham (form: 3313) his Gold Cup win stands out: brilliant on the day it has to be worked into calculations for balance that Kauto Star and Denman were perhaps not at their very peak that day leaving a fair assessment to suggest that he is much better suited to Kempton than Cheltenham. The latter places more demand on a tactical ability to change through the gears along undulations without losing running rhythm. When the contest is weak enough, and some Gold Cups are, none of that matters. The ill-fated Synchronised struggled manfully through much of the race last year but his sheer force of will and his ability would not be denied. The question then becomes can Long Run overcome three talented rivals on a course that may not maximise his powers and regain his crown?
Corresponding to the possible surprise at the place in the market of a former champion is that the horse leading the market is one that will have had only one run in the past twelve months: a most unusual profile for a Gold Cup favourite. Bobs Worth and The Festival are synonymous. He is one of two horses attempting a Festival hattrick in the race. Not as powerfully built as Long run, Bobs Worth has a similar iron will finishing in the first three in all 11 career starts. He is, however, more suited to the demands of Cheltenham and is unbeaten at the track. Although a resolute stayer he possesses tactical pace to such an extent that he beat the future Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby en route to his win over hurdles at the 2011 Festival. Part of this ability is innate class of course but another part is his gradually progressive run style: through his races he attempts to pick up the pace of the leaders from wherever he is positioned and then continually surge and grind in repeated waves, making him an extremely strong and tough rival at the end of his races. This was the calling card of his Hennessy win where he beat Tidal Bay (gave 6lbs) and First Lieutenant (much further than he did in the RSA) carrying 11-6. On the bare narrative his only run this season appears to give Bobs Worth the best chance in the Gold Cup: Tidal Bay would win the G1 Lexus Chase in Ireland on his next start beating none other than First Lieutenant, suggesting Bobs Worth holds more than enough aces for a title challenge in G1 company. Problems with this narrative abound, however. The most glaring problem is that both Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant are both unlikely to even contest the Gold Cup: Tidal Bay is set to run over hurdles before a Grand National bid with First Lieutenant dropping down in trip to contest the Ryanair Chase. With Bobs Worth's only run in open company being a handicap win he has to be judged accordingly. Tidal Bay was giving him 6lbs in the Hennessy at the age of 12 and the third was a palpable non-stayer at Newbury and a horse he had already beaten in the RSA. The Lexus Chase itself doesn't offer much in the way of scaffolding support for the overall form lines either: The third and second, Flemenstar and First Lieutenant, engaged each other in a contest of who can dramatically shorten their stride the quickest on the run to the line giving Tidal Bay his winning chance and allowing Sir Des Champs to close rapidly (relatively) in 4th for a blanket finish. Tidal Bay's effort was as admirable as it was exhilarating but he beat a horse in First Lieutenant who was suffering his eighth straight defeat and is below top class and a now-clear non-stayer in Flemenstar, with Sir Des Champs not at his best and improving to land the Irish Hennessy on his next start. What Bobs Worth has achieved in open company from just one run is therefore open to serious question and for a horse that (his jockey confirms) gives absolutely everything he has in his races it is a concern that his physical preparation has left him short of the conditioning one would like to see for a such a gruelling race at elite level. His mind will be driving him on relentlessly but his body may not cope with a four and a half month race absence. Bobs Worth is high class, resolute and brilliant at Cheltenham but he faces off against rivals with superior form and physical conditioning and as such they appeal more as more likely winners.
High on that list is Sir Des Champs. Unbeaten over hurdles, unbeaten in his novice season over fences and a dual Festival winner in the process he entered the season with an aura of expectancy that was out of kilter with the intentions of his trainer and connections, who from the very outset made it clear that a progressive campaign towards his 'one big day' in March would be his signature. This has indeed transpired although the substance of his campaign is still very much worthy of consideration. A physically strong looking and now powerfully built horse, Sir Des Champs began in lacklustre fashion befitting a 'starting point' seasonal debut. Flemenstar ran out a ready winner with his customary effusiveness but Sir Des Champs wasn't disgraced despite not threatening from some way out. More was expected on his next start in the Lexus Chase and improvement was forthcoming but it was stunted by some uncharacteristically poor jumping. Jumping the last with Tidal Bay his rival finished the better to overhaul the two leaders but Sir Des Champs himself finished with effect to claim fourth, beaten under a length. For the Lexus to make sense as a Gold Cup trial and as part of a progressive campaign Sir Des Champs had to continue his development on his next start in the Irish Hennessy. After all, Tidal Bay would be diverted away from the Gold Cup, as would the second who was well beaten in the Hennessy at Newbury, and the third was a clear non-stayer. At Leopardstown in February he claimed his G1 win in open company, jumping with far more alacrity and staying on with great resolution to reverse placings with Flemenstar who again failed to stay the 3m and never threatened after the last fence but who again looked well within his comfort zone when there was petrol in the tank. Part of the pre-season expectations for Sir Des Champs emerged from his unbeaten novice season culminating in an impressive looking win in the G2 Jewson Novices Chase. He moved through that race like much the best horse and despite getting in a little close to the last two fences asserted his superiority readily up the run in. Strictly speaking however that race fell apart somewhat with the likes of Peddler's Cross (not physically sound and out of form) and Cristal Bonus (not physically sound) his main rivals in the market and the likes of For Non Stop, Michael Flips and Solix a league below. It was left to Champion Court to put up any kind of challenge and despite a brave effort from the front he was outclassed: his subsequent form this season has not been noteworthy. The clearly defined training schedule for Sir Des Champs, backed up by his progressive performances on the track, indicate further improvement to come. As a dual Festival winner on good ground and hailing from a top class stable he is set to turn up for the race as an improving seasonal G1 winner with peak physical conditioning. However for all those positives it can also be said that the extent of his progression in open company resides in reversing form narrowly with a blatant non-stayer and as such he is yet to set the pulse racing with any one performance. High class and a leading player his win chance may only be compromised by the presence of a superstar in the race, or simply a horse with more innate class.
The only horse that aspires to that category is SILVINIACO CONTI. He stands somewhat alone as an island speck in a large, deep sea of Cheltenham specialists and this is perhaps the reason as to why he is the longest price of the three up-and-comers to the Blue Ribband. Yet his sole visit to the track saw him run a screamer. He had already thrashed Captain Chris by 10L in the G2 Persian War and Karabak by 7L in the G2 Ascot Hurdle: at Cheltenham he faced off with Menorah and Cue Card in the G2 International Hurdle, giving both horses 4lbs over 2m1f he finished just half a length behind Cue Card with the pair 4L behind a peak-form Menorah. Now he returns over fences and a trip of 3m2.5f. His novice season was mixed before he got to Aintree: a storming run to take a close 2nd in the Feltham behind Grand Crus with Bobs Worth back in third he then maybe felt those exertions as he watched on (from 10L back) as Bobs Worth closed down Invictus at Ascot. That winter period pointed to his heightened potential within the Nicholls stable and his general level at the top end of novice chasers, something he had already hinted at with a blistering performance in the Rising Stars Chase at Wincanton. Still unfurnished, the decision was made to bypass the Festival - a sign of unusual patience from his trainer - which was handsomely rewarded at Aintree when beating Champion Court 13L in the Mildmay Novices Chase over 3m. Champion Court had just been beaten by Sir Des Champs at the Festival and does not stay 3m but Silviniaco Conti ran all over his field creating a high class visual impression to sign off the season. Since coming back from the summer off he has done nothing but resume a steep upward curve. On debut he outclassed his Charlie Hall rivals to win by 11L before showing excellent mental and physical strength to beat Long Run on deep ground in the Betfair Chase, jumping superbly, with the Gold Cup runner-up The Giant Bolster 7L back in third. That run no doubt confirmed him as a serious Gold Cup prospect, comfortably beating the second and third from March's race. As such, he was given the winter off and returned in the Denman chase in physical condition reportedly akin to a seasonal debut: again on soft ground he travelled powerfully, jumped superbly and stayed on stoutly to beat The Giant Bolster again by 7L this time giving him 4lbs. With further physical improvement and natural maturity following recovery from his preparation, Silviniaco Conti will line up in March with a thick stack of credentials: he has the best G1 form this season; he has beaten the Gold Cup second twice, easily; he has beaten the former Gold Cup winner and dual King George winner; he handles any ground; he is by Dom Alco and bred to stay well; his jumping is in the main flawless (natural, economical, accurate); he possesses the best tactical speed in the race; he is the only horse to leave a striking visual impression and record wide margin wins in Graded company. He is also the horse most likely to tread the standard, high class Gold Cup route next season: Betfair Chase, King George (maybe), Denman Chase, Gold Cup. Potentially, he is the superstar in the field: the island speck in the vast sea may just be the most threatening.
Selections: SILVINIACO CONTI e/w & Sir Des Champs e/w.
Tuesday 5 February 2013
Neptune Novices Hurdle 2013 - Preliminary Thoughts
The New One
Winner of the Warwick trial for this race and runner-up in the HQ version on heavy ground in late January, grabbed late to be beaten a head by At Fishers Cross. Prior to this narrow reversal he had won all three of his hurdles starts (6L 6th in the Champion Bumper) on soft and good to soft ground.
Two of his four starts have come away from Cheltenham resulting in facile successes of 26L and 16L. Of far more interest are both the simple fact that he has been to Cheltenham twice to race over the Neptune trip; and then the qualities he displayed in those races. Both the esteem in which he is held by connections and his gradual curve of progression add to his overall profile.
The New One's first race at the track was on good to soft ground on his second start. In contrast to his later visit, this run (beating Village Vic nearly 3L) foregrounded a measure of grit and stamina, staying on strongly to assert up the hill with both horses pulling 20L clear of the third. Village Vic has not gone on to compliment the form at all in two subsequent runs (latest 6th of 8 in the Tolworth Hurdle).
The New One's second race at the track was on heavy ground. The race was quite clearly defined for a trial with the third, Coneygree, and the winner, At Fishers Cross both openly considered Albert Bartlett types after the race, probably before. Despite being closely grouped on the long run to the last flight The New One was able to 'quicken' around 3 to 4L ahead of his rivals but the move was either too early or too tiring in the ground and his lead was eroded just before the line.
The New One has demonstrated an ability to travel strongly through his races although it should be mentioned that his hurdling is sometimes far from fluent. Whether he actually quickened or not coming down the hill last time out is quite an interesting question. He may have just been running at a higher tempo than his staying rivals who were about to dig into their stamina reserves. What probably happened was a pace differential - The New One still moving strongly at one pace running downhill at the moment his staying rivals were switching off the bridle to race behind it, with the winner duly kicking in. If The New One had truly quickened away then he probably would have opened up a winning gap. The New One's run style may therefore share similarities with Oscar Whiskey and, perhaps, last year's winner of this race Simonsig: horses capable of a long sustained run at a very high tempo rather than a cruise-and-quicken style of say a Grandouet or - where more evidence might be needed - Puffin Billy. For the Neptune, staying right to the line after having the speed to be put into the race turning the bend is a crucial component and so far The New One has demonstrated this.
Better ground may prove quite important to The New One. This is not because he cannot cope with soft ground - he clearly can - but because his long sustained run to the line will be much more assured on goodish ground than, as seen in his run at Cheltenham on heavy, if the ground was tiring making sustaining his gallop to the line more gruelling and punishing. A fascinating runner and a leading contender.
Pont Alexandre
Has raced over hurdles twice, winning the G1 Navan Novice Hurdle over 20f by 13L on heavy ground on debut and winning the G2 Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle by 11L also on heavy ground and in atrocious weather.
It is clear that Pont Alexandre is thought to be one of his trainer's best novices. Running in a G1 on debut illustrates this clearly enough as does registering a combined win margin of 24L in his two starts. The question is what characteristics in particular has he displayed to date.
Pont Alexandre handles heavy ground and on both starts he has raced from the front and made all. On his debut he jumped noticeably right over his hurdles and this aspect of his jumping reappeared on his next start. This would be a slight worry in a fast-run race on better ground around Cheltenham but the conditions there will be markedly different (ground, field-size, pace) so it is not certain whether he will repeat the same tendency. On the whole his jumping is good and clever although when asked to race by his jockey, most notably at the last hurdle on his recent start, he was very novicey indeed.
Given the softness of the ground it may be significant that Pont Alexandre has been ridden to make all. Many time novices are given cover, experience of racing amongst horses and so on but here none of that has been on connections mind which may indicate two things: he is so highly regarded it is not considered necessary and a clear sight of hurdles and staying out of the way of inferior horses was more important; and also 20f may be the minimum of his requirements.
Pont Alexandre is quite difficult to assess. He has jumped right, relished heavy ground and is a future staying chaser. Yet he has run all over G1 and G2 races in Ireland with the minimum of fuss. Interestingly though we know far more about him than we did about Fiveforthree from the same stable, who debuted as late as February 13 over 2m on soft ground before winning the Neptune on his second start. Fiveforthree had a fine turn of foot, however. Mikael D'Haguenet was given four runs prior to his win in this race and perhaps one more run from Pont Alexandre would help to assess his true potential. He is clearly a leading contender with the word soft in the going.
Taquin Du Seuil
Winner of the Sandown December trial for this race and the 2013 Challow Hurdle, both on heavy ground. He has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles (all comfortably); on his second start at Ascot he was no match over two miles for the Supreme Novices candidate My Tent Or Yours but ran to the line against that rival over a trip shorter than ideal.
Taquin Du Seuil is a highly talented middle distance novice hurdler. He can be keen in his races and physically he appears to have much more growing to do. A feature of his last two runs has been his high knee action and he clearly handles deep ground very well. In his only defeat to date either the slightly quicker tempo of a two mile race or the better ground (or both) led to some untidy hurdling but he remained prominent throughout and wasn't cast aside easily by a high class opponent.
A (limited) stayer on the flat in France his type of performance at the festival is probably ground dependent: he has cruised through his recent contests so doesn't lack speed on soft ground but equally on better ground he will be put to the test much earlier and may lack the pace to be effective at the end of a race, particularly if held-up as he has been over 20f to try to help him settle. Assessing him accurately is quite tricky but this season may just be a year too early for him on the evidence to hand thus far.
Rule The World
Winner of the 2013 Slaney Novices Hurdle by 16L on soft to heavy ground. He has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles this season on soft and heavy ground. His sole defeat to date came over 3m on his second start.
Perhaps the most impressive aspects of Rule The World's performances this season have been his even and professional distribution of his energy and his hurdling. It could be said that his hurdling is among the most impressive of any of the novices so far, appearing to respect his obstacles he clears them fluently and on a correct stride. The only time this deserted him slightly was when narrowly defeated over 3m on his second start, where three out and two out he perhaps didn't adjust himself quickly enough. In his races Rule The World settles very well; he is not keen and doesn't pull which is a very interesting aspect of his overall profile: he moves through his races evenly and comfortably and over 20f he has outclassed his rivals with the minimum of effort.
Rule The World is a half-brother to 2008 Neptune Novices Hurdle runner-up Venalmar. Venalmar had the same kind of campaign (one typical of the trainer in general): four runs capped off with a win in the Slaney Novices Hurdle then kept fresh until March where he ran into the classy Fiveforthree in a thrilling finish. Venalmar's Slaney win had more substance but even if Champagne Fever hadn't have run poorly Rule The World gave the impression he would have won in smart fashion and his overall profile looks set to give him a big chance of going one better than his half-brother with the prospect of better ground likely to play to his strengths.
Winner of the Warwick trial for this race and runner-up in the HQ version on heavy ground in late January, grabbed late to be beaten a head by At Fishers Cross. Prior to this narrow reversal he had won all three of his hurdles starts (6L 6th in the Champion Bumper) on soft and good to soft ground.
Two of his four starts have come away from Cheltenham resulting in facile successes of 26L and 16L. Of far more interest are both the simple fact that he has been to Cheltenham twice to race over the Neptune trip; and then the qualities he displayed in those races. Both the esteem in which he is held by connections and his gradual curve of progression add to his overall profile.
The New One's first race at the track was on good to soft ground on his second start. In contrast to his later visit, this run (beating Village Vic nearly 3L) foregrounded a measure of grit and stamina, staying on strongly to assert up the hill with both horses pulling 20L clear of the third. Village Vic has not gone on to compliment the form at all in two subsequent runs (latest 6th of 8 in the Tolworth Hurdle).
The New One's second race at the track was on heavy ground. The race was quite clearly defined for a trial with the third, Coneygree, and the winner, At Fishers Cross both openly considered Albert Bartlett types after the race, probably before. Despite being closely grouped on the long run to the last flight The New One was able to 'quicken' around 3 to 4L ahead of his rivals but the move was either too early or too tiring in the ground and his lead was eroded just before the line.
The New One has demonstrated an ability to travel strongly through his races although it should be mentioned that his hurdling is sometimes far from fluent. Whether he actually quickened or not coming down the hill last time out is quite an interesting question. He may have just been running at a higher tempo than his staying rivals who were about to dig into their stamina reserves. What probably happened was a pace differential - The New One still moving strongly at one pace running downhill at the moment his staying rivals were switching off the bridle to race behind it, with the winner duly kicking in. If The New One had truly quickened away then he probably would have opened up a winning gap. The New One's run style may therefore share similarities with Oscar Whiskey and, perhaps, last year's winner of this race Simonsig: horses capable of a long sustained run at a very high tempo rather than a cruise-and-quicken style of say a Grandouet or - where more evidence might be needed - Puffin Billy. For the Neptune, staying right to the line after having the speed to be put into the race turning the bend is a crucial component and so far The New One has demonstrated this.
Better ground may prove quite important to The New One. This is not because he cannot cope with soft ground - he clearly can - but because his long sustained run to the line will be much more assured on goodish ground than, as seen in his run at Cheltenham on heavy, if the ground was tiring making sustaining his gallop to the line more gruelling and punishing. A fascinating runner and a leading contender.
Pont Alexandre
Has raced over hurdles twice, winning the G1 Navan Novice Hurdle over 20f by 13L on heavy ground on debut and winning the G2 Synergy Security Solutions Novice Hurdle by 11L also on heavy ground and in atrocious weather.
It is clear that Pont Alexandre is thought to be one of his trainer's best novices. Running in a G1 on debut illustrates this clearly enough as does registering a combined win margin of 24L in his two starts. The question is what characteristics in particular has he displayed to date.
Pont Alexandre handles heavy ground and on both starts he has raced from the front and made all. On his debut he jumped noticeably right over his hurdles and this aspect of his jumping reappeared on his next start. This would be a slight worry in a fast-run race on better ground around Cheltenham but the conditions there will be markedly different (ground, field-size, pace) so it is not certain whether he will repeat the same tendency. On the whole his jumping is good and clever although when asked to race by his jockey, most notably at the last hurdle on his recent start, he was very novicey indeed.
Given the softness of the ground it may be significant that Pont Alexandre has been ridden to make all. Many time novices are given cover, experience of racing amongst horses and so on but here none of that has been on connections mind which may indicate two things: he is so highly regarded it is not considered necessary and a clear sight of hurdles and staying out of the way of inferior horses was more important; and also 20f may be the minimum of his requirements.
Pont Alexandre is quite difficult to assess. He has jumped right, relished heavy ground and is a future staying chaser. Yet he has run all over G1 and G2 races in Ireland with the minimum of fuss. Interestingly though we know far more about him than we did about Fiveforthree from the same stable, who debuted as late as February 13 over 2m on soft ground before winning the Neptune on his second start. Fiveforthree had a fine turn of foot, however. Mikael D'Haguenet was given four runs prior to his win in this race and perhaps one more run from Pont Alexandre would help to assess his true potential. He is clearly a leading contender with the word soft in the going.
Taquin Du Seuil
Winner of the Sandown December trial for this race and the 2013 Challow Hurdle, both on heavy ground. He has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles (all comfortably); on his second start at Ascot he was no match over two miles for the Supreme Novices candidate My Tent Or Yours but ran to the line against that rival over a trip shorter than ideal.
Taquin Du Seuil is a highly talented middle distance novice hurdler. He can be keen in his races and physically he appears to have much more growing to do. A feature of his last two runs has been his high knee action and he clearly handles deep ground very well. In his only defeat to date either the slightly quicker tempo of a two mile race or the better ground (or both) led to some untidy hurdling but he remained prominent throughout and wasn't cast aside easily by a high class opponent.
A (limited) stayer on the flat in France his type of performance at the festival is probably ground dependent: he has cruised through his recent contests so doesn't lack speed on soft ground but equally on better ground he will be put to the test much earlier and may lack the pace to be effective at the end of a race, particularly if held-up as he has been over 20f to try to help him settle. Assessing him accurately is quite tricky but this season may just be a year too early for him on the evidence to hand thus far.
Rule The World
Winner of the 2013 Slaney Novices Hurdle by 16L on soft to heavy ground. He has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles this season on soft and heavy ground. His sole defeat to date came over 3m on his second start.
Perhaps the most impressive aspects of Rule The World's performances this season have been his even and professional distribution of his energy and his hurdling. It could be said that his hurdling is among the most impressive of any of the novices so far, appearing to respect his obstacles he clears them fluently and on a correct stride. The only time this deserted him slightly was when narrowly defeated over 3m on his second start, where three out and two out he perhaps didn't adjust himself quickly enough. In his races Rule The World settles very well; he is not keen and doesn't pull which is a very interesting aspect of his overall profile: he moves through his races evenly and comfortably and over 20f he has outclassed his rivals with the minimum of effort.
Rule The World is a half-brother to 2008 Neptune Novices Hurdle runner-up Venalmar. Venalmar had the same kind of campaign (one typical of the trainer in general): four runs capped off with a win in the Slaney Novices Hurdle then kept fresh until March where he ran into the classy Fiveforthree in a thrilling finish. Venalmar's Slaney win had more substance but even if Champagne Fever hadn't have run poorly Rule The World gave the impression he would have won in smart fashion and his overall profile looks set to give him a big chance of going one better than his half-brother with the prospect of better ground likely to play to his strengths.
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