2. Structural Depth and the 2013/14 National Hunt Season. Part Two.

(Brackets) indicate an alternate option more likely.

Arkle Trophy Chase

Potentially Elite

Champagne Fever

Grandouet

[----------------------]

The Rest

The Arkle is a peculiar race and therefore, despite being a novice contest, it features in the #Strategic7 group of races. The core reasons for this need not detain us here but a general point of significance about the race is the recent decline in credible contenders (2008-13 number of runners: 14, 17, 12, 10, 6, 7). The emergence of Sprinter Sacre - the apotheosis of strut - has compensated for this in no uncertain terms but nonetheless the structural observation holds: Sprinter Sacre himself faced one excellent rival over 2m in the shape of Cue Card with Al Ferof seen as more of a 3m type from an early stage. The lack of depth was underscored last season when Simonsig won without facing a single credible Arkle-class contender. Whilst that was indeed unusual, most likely an anomaly, this season could quite possibly have replicated the same situation had Grandouet (at the time of writing) not been confirmed for the novice chase route. 

Strategically, however, the Arkle this season presents us with two potentially elite class runners with a wide gap to some 'solid' horses down in the lower cluster. As was pointed out in the main overview of the structural depth model in Part One, there is continual flux and movement to a greater or lesser extent. Whilst no problems are anticipated in the techniques of Champagne Fever and Grandouet over fences it is not inconceivable that one or both could pick up or develop a problem of some kind. Were only one to make the race, there is always a chance of an upset should there be some kind of underlying, undetected physical issue with the superior horse, as the example of Simonsig's win partly hinted at. A horse currently in the lower cluster but with the right Arkle-type credentials could make profound progress through their season to add to the list of challengers, but given the high standard already set by the two at the top it is unlikely; their hand would be known by now. This is therefore an example of a division stretching vertically despite a lack of numbers; compression of talent levels is unlikely. Champagne Fever won a strong-looking renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, having won the Champion Bumper the year before, and his robust, high-class qualities are there for all to see, although he will no doubt desire a stiffer test in time, like so many Arkle runners do (official hurdles rating 157). Grandouet is not one of those, and having twice missed his chance at Festival glory (injury and a fall) in the Champion Hurdle his abundant promise, and speed, will now cast its stare at fences (official hurdles rating 166). 

[Those wishing to adhere to the "value myth" have the task of deciding several meta-physical, philosophical things that here are entirely unimportant or not recognised as such. Is Champagne Fever "value" at 7/1? Is Grandouet "value" at 10/1? Which is the "best value"? And so on. They are abstractions, questions that relate barely at all to the very real underlying "worth" of each horse in a structural model that incorporates either of them winning, with virtually no preference, and the exponential effect of such an outcome on other events.]

Price aside (both will self-regulate the other and with no hiccups both will probably start at around 9/4-11/4 based on previous runnings), the task is to monitor any horses making unexpectedly strong progression through the season. By the end of the year any such progression will have become obvious. 

≈

Champion Hurdle

Elite

Hurricane Fly

(Grandouet)

Elite with Exposed Limitations

Rock On Ruby

-------------------------------------------

Potentially Elite (lower cluster)

The New One

My Tent Or Yours

Jezki

Our Conor

With Grandouet switching to chasing, the elite layer in this division starts to look threadbare. It is held in tact by the ageing yet irrepressible, history-making Hurricane Fly but his elite support is almost non-existent: the exposed pairing of Zarkandar and Countrywide Flame will be missing due to a much needed change in trip and injury respectively, whilst Rock On Ruby delivered an indifferent season following his triumph in 2012. This division is therefore compressed, with the elite looking set for a battle royale in trying to fend off the rise of the novice stars, who are strongly represented as a group.

The reason that even Festival winning novices are not posited in elite company straight away is simply due to the need for confirmation. Placing them below the porous barrier underlines the fact that usually they have work to do to rise into elite, open company. Some manage it extremely easily, some not at all. An example would be Cinders and Ashes. He won the Supreme Novices Hurdle in 2012, beating Darlan. With his ambitious trainer keen to stress how his horse had won the Supreme "without having a race," much was expected of Cinders and Ashes, the Festival winning novice. In a new season in open company, his form figures read 25P, beaten out of sight on each occasion (physical problems are further reasons for caution). This despite the horse he beat in the Supreme, Darlan, progressing to show extraordinary elite potential before sadly losing his life. 

As ever the ex-novices can be assessed as they filter into the races with elite opponents but it is striking that each of them have in some way already shown the required level of residual class: they were not 'hidden away' from competition in the build up to the Festival as some novices are and as such in our spatial image from Part One we can begin to imagine them rising through a largely unprotected, porous barrier. Colliding head on with the elite seems inevitable. 

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Queen Mother Champion Chase

Super-Elite

Sprinter Sacre

Elite

(Cue Card)

-------------------------------------------

Potentially Elite (lower cluster)

(Simonsig)

As the brackets indicate, Sprinter Sacre is not to be taken on lightly. Were he to miss the race it is almost certain that both Cue Card and Simonsig (amongst others) would be re-routed to this more prestigious distance. With a degree of certainty it can be said that in any 'normal' Arkle-to-Champion-Chase period Cue Card would have been a standout winner, gently underlining the enormity of Sprinter Sacre's presence in this division. The presence of a member of the super-elite seals off the race, diverting (potentially) elite horses to the Ryanair Chase.

≈

Ryanair Chase

Elite

Cue Card

Elite with Exposed Limitations

Flemenstar
(First Lieutenant)

-----------------------------------------

Potentially Elite (lower cluster)

Simonsig

Dynaste

High class (lower cluster)

Captain Conan

Others

The Ryanair Chase was an excellent addition to the Cheltenham Festival. The contest rarely affects the two mile division owing to Arkle contenders often requiring size, scope and stamina: if they're good enough they'll run on the Tuesday. The Gold Cup is a different matter. Many horses cannot live with an elite class gallop for the punishing distance of a Gold Cup but in being able to sustain or chase that gallop for anything up to three miles they are liable to hurt themselves or sustain a mental fatigue from which recovery is not guaranteed. Some horses capable of rising to Gold Cup level in time are spared the daunting task of having to run in the race before they are ready to do so, or at least, before their connections are happy to consent to such a physical and mental examination of a horse in their care. Imperial Commander's Paddy Power-Ryanair-Gold Cup ascent is an example of the route of progression the Ryanair Chase affords. In betting terms as well as analytically, the Ryanair is rich in information; Imperial Commander also illustrates the golden rule of the race: every winner so far ran in the King George that same season. This so far specific structural regularity may or may not continue in years to come but the overall class indicator to which it points is unmistakeable. 

Despite the range of possible contenders of all types, this division has a barrier that is quite rigid. That was not the case in, for example, 2012 but the decision to target Cue Card at this race last year and this has had a profound effect on the depth of the elite group. Having run in this race last year First Lieutenant may step up into Gold Cup territory this season, further cementing the depth of the elite pool in that division. That affords two extremely promising elite contenders the opportunity to step into Cue Card's realm. Dynaste also has the Gold Cup as a possible target. He is due to start in the extended Betfair Chase before tackling the King George but with the competition in those races being particularly fierce and, with his physicality perhaps more tailored for a Ryanair Chase anyway, he could well develop into a key rival for Cue Card. Simonsig's individuality can be discussed at some length elsewhere; but his presence in this race appears most likely for any number of reasons and he too may take in the King George en route. 

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World Hurdle

Super-Elite

Big Buck's *(returning)

Elite

Solwhit

Zarkandar

------------------------------------------

Potentially Elite (lower cluster)

At Fisher's Cross

Super-elite with a twist. The greatest staying hurdler of all time suffered a minor tendon injury and was given any amount of time required to return to the racecourse. The asterisk indicates a doubt not about his ability to perform to his normal stratospheric level, but about the possibility that the same or any other niggle causes further absence. With two elite level rivals in the wings, the elite pool shines a foreboding beam on any potential up-and-comer. Nonetheless, a barrier that would normally have been rigid is now loosened ever so slightly: only with the progression of time can we assess to what extent that helps the one really viable aspirant from the lower cluster.

In a coincidence of timing, as Big Buck's was off the track recuperating, a horse that appears to possess very similar characteristics burst through the junior ranks of the division. At Fisher's Cross has the swagger, a similar hurdling technique, a string of "1"s, a similar thirst for any ground conditions, the form in the book and the look, the physicality, of a top class horse in waiting. What he lacks in comparison to the Legend, is a furry noseband. With the Champion-In-Absentia Solwhit likely to return and the highly experienced Zarkandar primed to step into the division this race takes on a fascinating complexion with a deep elite pool. Appearances from all the Fab Four in March would be most welcome.

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Gold Cup

Elite
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti

Elite with Exposed Limitations
Sir Des Champs
Long Run
First Lieutenant
--------------------------------------
Potentially Elite (Lower Cluster)
Al Ferof
(Dynaste)
Lord Windermere

As indicated in Part One, Bobs Worth's victory on the back of just one run in open company and that start being his only run in nearly twelve months was incredible. Again, his individuality is not in focus here; it is whether his performances and his potential stretch the vertical axis of the division toward a super-elite formation. If he retains his crown that will indeed be the case. He will again face the winners of all the main trials, some of whom he will already have beaten. Were he to miss the race for any reason, the division would be become far more fluid, the barrier more porous. 

Summary

Individuals in this milieu are variable; the spatial model more definable. Strong allegiance to any one horse is always an exercise replete with fascination and oscillating emotions. Yet once the structure of each division becomes more opaque the "worth" of each name multiplies. All this without any seasonal information as yet. That is the next task. With the season under way each horse has to be understood relative to the task that will be demanded of him: physicality, mentality, exuberance, grind, residual class, elite level gallop, tactical pace and so on, all relative to the unique requirements of each particular race. The answers to these contests will almost always be obvious after the event. By asking the right questions throughout the season, so too can they be beforehand.

1. Structural Depth and the 2013/14 National Hunt Season. Part One.

Central to this article are concepts and language not frequently used elsewhere. They are explained in the opening paragraph and throughout but thought it useful to separate them at the beginning for ease of reference:

Spatial Image
The attempt here is to talk of a hierarchy of talent. In some cases this hierarchy is quite fixed and inflexible; in others it is much more fluid and interchangeable. In terms of talent we can talk of National Hunt horses in the following way:

Super-Elite
Elite
Elite with Exposed Limitations
[------a porous barrier------]
Lower Cluster (trying to rise through the barrier to challenge the Elite group)


Elite
A horse of confirmed/repeatable Graded class that is expected to challenge for Grade One races in open company.

Super-Elite
A horse of rare and extraordinary residual class whose presence effectively 'locks' the division. Current examples include Quevega, Sprinter Sacre and, until a season curtailed by a minor tendon injury, Big Buck's.

Elite with Exposed Limitations
A confirmed Elite horse whose curve of progression and ascent may have plateaued. 'Exposed' is not meant in a negative context but rather as signifying that we know a great deal about the horse and therefore any limits on their ability can be readily identified.

Porous Barrier
The symbolic dividing line between a good class horse and an Elite horse. The barrier in this model is two-way and the degree of porosity is in constant flux. If the elite group of horses is weak, the barrier becomes more porous, allowing greater movement through it. If the elite group is strong/deep, or if there is a super-elite horse in the division, the barrier is much more rigid, less porous, making movement through it much more difficult. In essence this just refers to the likelihood of a classy progressive horse rising through the ranks not just to join the elite, but to challenge for Grade One winner status.

Lower Cluster
The great wash of horses below elite level. Primarily for this model we are interested in novices with potential but even Festival winning novices remain below the barrier as they are yet to compete in open company. High class/progressive handicappers also feature here until being tested in elite company.


ONE of the hallmarks of a new National Hunt season is the opening array of wildly oscillating career paths assigned to horses broadly located in elite and non-elite strata. These predictions come from all sections of interest in racing: professional gamblers, leading media personnel, ratings analysts, recreational gamblers and so on; optimism is infectious. "Non-elite" simply refers to the great wash of equine promise and talent located below an elite level, be they a top novice, a high class handicapper or of a more moderate kind. "Elite" refers principally and in simple terms to open company Grade One winners and to strong, experienced Graded performers: essentially those select few horses found on several occasions battling for major Graded honours prior to and at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. Analytically, the first point to make is simply that all those horses designated as non-elite can be clustered together below a porous barrier above which resides the elite talent pool. Structurally, therefore, this spatial image of the organisation of National Hunt horses involves a distinction between high class horses moving upwards, attempting to break into the elite, and elite horses maintaining their status or struggling to do so, slipping downwards through the porous barrier into the main cluster. The second key point is that the greater the depth of elite talent the more rigid and less porous that barrier becomes, making it much more difficult for progressive non-elite horses to break into the races for major honours. Conversely, when the pool of elite talent is shallow, thinly spread across the distance divisions, so correspondingly the barrier becomes much more flexible, greater in porosity, signifying the greater chances of talent from the cluster rising into an elite position and the more vulnerable elite pool being dragged into a battle with them at a lower overall level in the structure.

The porous barrier in this spatial image is the site of the power struggle between top class and rising class talent that so often shapes discussions of the best races in the National Hunt calendar. We can go further. Elite group horses are stamped by the fact that in most cases we know the most about them. So much of that initial optimism and speculation crystallises around the younger horses from the lower cluster synonymous with the phrase 'could be anything' (among others) but it is clear that this is only possible because so little is known about them. There are often clues as to the underlying residual class of a younger horse (often misleading ones, too) but their physicality (stage of physical growth, maturity, robustness and the stages of these developments) is usually unknown by the trainer as is the specific mentality of the horse in question, which is typically an ongoing process in any case. This is essentially why many of the novice events at the Festival are best analysed deep into the season, when information on these crucial aspects is more fully developed and revealing. The elite group, operating in open company, are such a rich source analytically because of the extent to which they have revealed the very characteristics that are so well hidden in most younger horses. The ability to inspect increasingly detailed exposure of the strengths and weaknesses of top class horses makes it possible to assess the structural depth of them as a group across the distance divisions, or within one specific division.

In rare cases parts of the porous barrier become effectively sealed, closed off. This occurs in the presence of a horse belonging to the super-elite, providing there are no physical ailments. Occupants of this stratospheric band are blessed with such extraordinary ability that even elite horses are unable to cope with them. As is self-evident, there is therefore no chance of a progressive high-class horse with lower residual class than an elite horse posing a threat. The open company Grade One event in question at the Festival is therefore closed off. Current examples of the super-elite include Quevega (Mares Hurdle); Big Buck's (World Hurdle, see above); and Sprinter Sacre (Queen Mother Champion Chase).

There is a third sub-strata of the elite group. Adhering to our vertical spatial image, we have the "super-elite" beating the "elite", and the elite sparring with the "elite with exposed limitations". No doubt owing to the latter's position just above the porous barrier separating them from the lower cluster, it is around this tense area of rise and fall that most discussion centres. Not least because whereas for some people the details of the 'exposed limitations' will hinder a horse's chance, for others they will be the conditions which if improved upon can lead to an elite performance and success at the Cheltenham Festival. An example of this would be Sir Des Champs (Zarkandar running over two miles was another). After three Festival visits and a successful transition to chasing in open company he is an elite opponent that many would be willing to feature as their main bet for the Gold Cup in 2014. Others may wish to critique the merits of his Irish form and the relative ease with which Bobs Worth beat him in March - expressed as limitations the more we have gotten to know about him. Some will see further progression, others will see a plateau. As another example, Lord Windermere would be illustrative of a high class horse with elite pretensions who may, in time, be challenging the likes of Sir Des Champs for elite status. But as for Lord Windermere potentially challenging for honours in that division, the depth of the elite group is significant and therefore prohibitive to his chances of doing so: Bobs Worth, Al Ferof (also potentially), Silviniaco Conti, Long Run, Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant form a formidable blocking pattern to any up and comers. To clarify this point, it is not that weight of numbers prevents a progressive high-class horse from making the transition upwards through the barrier into elite company, even challenging for glory. It is the fact that there are so many established horses for our hero to fight through, overcome, progress past, that it makes it highly unlikely that a horse could have the requisite residual class to do so; there is a self-regulating limit on the possible number of elite horses in any one division at any one time. If such a horse did have such talent, it would become obvious very quickly. Remaining finally with the example of Lord Windermere, his RSA Chase win was full of merit and visually quite taking (to mention these most basic points) but it is not obvious from his novice season that a major role in such a tough elite crowd will be forthcoming. This leads us to an analytical signpost that has major implications for understanding the structural depth of the forthcoming season and therefore any betting approach seeking to incorporate the big races at the Cheltenham Festival: namely, the problem of individuality.

Whilst mention has been made of specific horses as a means of illustrating different strata in the National Hunt season's structural model, it is important to stress that detailed discussion of individual horses winning a specific race is irrelevant for an understanding of the structural model itself. When assessing the likely outcome of a specific race some of the biggest analytical mistakes arise from focusing almost exclusively on the merits of an individual horse and his or her opponents as individuals without reference to the place of those merits in the power struggle of the strata involved. One of the best examples of this (given that it is error-strewn) can be found here, on this blog, in the shape of the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup, won emphatically by Bobs Worth. The way in which I sometimes formulated thoughts then was simply unacceptable and this was the race that made me transition to an unswervingly analytical approach (as seen from the 2012 King George onwards). For this example I will need to break into first person prose.

Roughly speaking, the weekend and early part of the week before the Hennessy was due to be run saw heavy downpours and forecasts of soft ground at Newbury, potentially heavy ground if bad weather continued into the latter part of the week. I began assessing the race on an individual basis (which is fine) but without any context of what strata were represented and to what depth or extent (which is not). For reasons of work I would need to make my assessments and selections by Thursday (another mistake) and from memory I think I made them by the Wednesday (I was clearly rushing a bit). Whilst technically poor, my error-strewn approach to this contest, propelled by a need to reach a decision quite early, nonetheless helps to vividly highlight the overall point (even though the race is a top-end handicap, not an open company Grade One). This is because the race eventually featured what could be termed a 'potentially elite group' of three runners (Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant [the RSA 1-2] and Tidal Bay [had Graded form and won the Whitbread off 154]; and below them a cluster of honest but largely exposed handicap level horses. The question was how porous was the barrier? I never came close to ascertaining the strata representations nor the spatial image of the barrier between them. The race panned out in precisely that way, however, with the three 'potentially elite horses' filling the first three places comfortably ahead of the lower cluster. The barrier had been quite rigid, with low porosity; the higher group were unchallenged. What had I done? In one line: Bobs Worth's participation had been in doubt due to the bad weather; First Lieutenant had developed some 'exposed limitations' through his novice season (and would go ten races in total without a victory); and Tidal Bay was an enigmatic older horse running off 166. Without a structural depth model in my head, I proceeded to look for a lighter weighted cluster horse that would relish a stamina test on bad ground, and found two. The ground then dried out appreciably, thus confirming Bobs Worth's participation. My selections ran quite well (finishing 5th and 7th) but nothing can hide the glaring conceptual misunderstanding of a high-end race that this approach illustrated. In truth I had not even developed the concepts then to which I am referring now but this also goes to highlight just how easy it can be to misjudge what is really happening: to not even think or remind oneself to be aware of the dynamics of elite vs lower level talent, when what we are trying to identify is the best horse (most residual class) in the race is not an acceptable method. What presented itself during this race was a fair illustration of the model being discussed here. What will help to explain it further is applying the spatial image of structural depth to one of the Grade One races of the Cheltenham Festival this season: the Gold Cup.

Any horse can lead us into the spatial image and Al Ferof will suffice. Priced at 20/1 by some firms, and not priced at all by others, in our model Al Ferof resides at the high end of the lower cluster, looking up at the elite. Any challenge for Gold Cup honours depends on both his individual progression (revealing his true level of residual class) and the depth of elite talent he must compete with and surpass. This race, this season, stretches the vertical aspect of the model perhaps more than any other of the Grade Ones in the calendar. Whether Bobs Worth is representative of a super-elite layer is open to debate (owing to only two, albeit imperious, performances in open company) but either way he is by some way the strongest of the elite opponents, stretching upwards towards Festival infamy. He has comprehensively beaten three of his elite rivals in First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs and Long Run. That statement alone immediately firms up and begins to block off the barrier between the elite and the lower cluster when one considers just what those three horses have achieved between them in Graded company. Silviniaco Conti may well have been a fourth vanquished elite opponent, how closely so we cannot gauge until both re-oppose in March. Collectively, this group constitute an elite strata of almost unheralded depth and power. Dynaste's position among them is uncertain: he may sit just above or just below the barrier, depending on one's own view; but that there are scenarios where he features quite prominently in King George calculations underlines still further what stands above him (he may be targeted at the Ryanair Chase as a result). Of anything currently residing below the barrier, therefore, there is little to no room for anything other than outstanding performance and progression from the moment their season begins. Al Ferof is conceptually interesting. He stands in the 'potentially elite' area of the lower cluster owing to a tendon injury sustained a week before the King George, for which he was around 5/1, a race that may have begun to confer elite status upon him. When we consider the earlier sentence - "there is little to no room for anything other than outstanding performance and progression from the moment their season begins" - Al Ferof, physical soundness permitting, has the potential to meet that criteria. Others may or may not; individual choice and assessment is just that. The fact that Al Ferof alone of those from the lower cluster is being aimed quite specifically at a King George assault is likely significant in this regard.

In other divisions or at other distances, the vertical axis will be much more compressed. The elite strata packed tighter; the barrier will have greater porosity; the movement through it from the lower cluster will be more attainable, more significant. And all of this is in constant flux. Injuries, physical problems, weather, the whole concatenation of variables that impact a horse's season are in play, creating stronger tensions around the barrier here, weaker ones there. It is this stretching and compressing of the structural depth that helps to determine what kind of horse will battle for champion status because, with near total certainty, only two or three per division can do so. The application of the structural depth model to specific divisions is the task of Part Two, but simple research reveals that the vast majority of the winners of the King George VI Chase and the open company Grade One's at the Cheltenham Festival were readily identifiable in the close season prior to their wins in those races. Of those that, during the prior close season were not as obvious, nearly all had come into sharper focus by the end of the calendar year. The National Hunt season at elite level has a structural regularity that is very rarely explained or explored. Part Two to follow.