* This review is mixed as most of it was written a day or so before the race, at which point the race structure was known. As a handicap contest I am concerned far more with pre-race structural depth and the ease with which the race shape could be predicted, rather than reviewing individual performances.
Pre-Race Depth Model:
Elite
Finian's Rainbow
Wishfull Thinking
Potentially Elite
Rajdhani Express
Structural Gap 154-145
Conquisto, Hidden Cyclone, Vino Griego, Battle Group,
Woolcombe Folly, Tap Night, Kumbeshwar. Omissions at 153, 147, 146, 145.
High Class & Potentially High Class (P)
Champion Court
Carrickboy
Ballynagour (P)
Astracad
John's Spirit (P)
Colour Squadron (P)
Handicap Class
Easter Meteor
Nadiya De La Vega
Gift of Dgab
Attaglance
A general feature of the build-up to this race was the oft-expressed view that this was 'wide open'. This suggests that upwards of half a dozen horses had roughly an equal chance of winning 'on their day' with still further possibilities of winning arising from 'interesting outsiders'. Such a position is in-keeping with a common theme in pre-race prediction/analysis in general, namely the 'philosophy of doubt', which stems in the main from trying to find the winner by assessing the chances of individual horses in isolation, rather than assessing what exactly the race represents and why. This 'wide open' impression was quite strong, fanned by racing and social media. Closer inspection revealed a different picture of the race. One reason is that it is extremely rare to see, for example, a four or five horse war to the line after the last fence in a top class handicap chase (hurdle events are slightly different); two or three is the norm. The other reason lies in the relationship between the horses themselves, in the structure of the race, its depth. This becomes clear by taking the decisive step of moving away from talking about individual horses and instead focusing on their position within a structure - the race - relative to each other, which forces a specific order and pressure upon them.
PPGC13: Breakdown
The declaration of 2012 Champion Chase and Melling Chase winner Finian's Rainbow gave the race greater depth but overall that depth could still be categorized as 'Compressed'. Wishfull Thinking, inferior to his old rival during that season, had been tailed off in the Old Roan on his reappearance and was beaten 32L from a giddy marker of 164 in this race in 2011. If we acknowledge the record of top-weights since the victory of Cyfor Malta in 2002 to be (2003-13) 504FPP65PP(P), to use this simple denominator, we can see just how unlikely a weight-carrying performance was. Nonetheless the presence of a genuine elite runner with favourable conditions, albeit one out of form and/or with physical problems for nearly all of last season, offered greater clarity surrounding the task of those below him.
In the crucial area of 'potentially elite' came only Rajdhani Express. Champion Court was often described as 'high class' by previewers of the race, which is correct at a handicap level, but there was a feeling that he was being placed in a more elite bracket owing to his King George run (mainly) and Ryanair attempt. He was convincingly beaten in both those open company runs however and at the age of eight and working best in handicap company that is where he was positioned for analysis.
The
Structural Gap observable from an early stage defined the race. The withdrawal of Third Intention actually widened the gap to the range detailed above in the depth model. The horses that featured in this band may well go on to have strong chances in other big races of a different kind or at a different time but here they came together as a group of most unlikely winners. The horse from this band that most people centred on was AP McCoy's mount Tap Night. He had form with the likes of Captain Conan and Rajdhani Express but this was fully factored into a mark of 149 and, more interestingly analytically, aspects of his physicality were unappealing for this race (his jockey later made it explicit that he would have preferred to have ridden at least two others rather than Tap Night, which said it all).
What was notable therefore was the number of horses that could potentially (P) have raced from a higher official rating but which were situated relatively low down the weights scale. This was illustrated, for example, by Colour Squadron having a 15lbs turnaround with Rajdhani Express from their meeting at the Festival. From last year's renewal, Nadiya De La Vega (third) had a 13lbs pull with Walkon (2nd). Any number of factors shape those concessions: physical maturity, the alleviation of physical problems over the summer, different ground conditions and so on but taken together those and other weight lines could be classed as 'Gravity', effectively clawing and tugging at those higher up, dragging them into competition with those lower down (John's Spirit would have had a 15lbs pull with Katenko had that rival been declared; in turn Astracad had a 10lbs pull with John's Spirit from their runs first time out). Both potential Pipe runners, Ballynagour and Salut Flo, were potentially well-handicapped. So in effect, from a vertical list of 20 runners it could be estimated that the structure of the race (i.e. not looking for a winner individualistically) yielded this contest:
vs
vs
The three exposed horses were Astracad, Easter Meteor and Nadiya De La Vega. The other three had the (P), although John's Spirit had already shown his hand with a 10lbs ratings rise for winning first time out.
Known but undisclosed physical issues at home; evidence of physical issues on the racecourse from the previous season that are taken on trust to have been resolved; the privately held thoughts of connections; widely reported comments by connections; 'social-only' runners; 'momentum-dependent' runners; the extent to which levels of elite residual class remain potent; the extent to which they have been hidden; and so on: none of these are calculable with any real degree of certainty. Yet the structure of the race - a phrase and use of language that is almost never heard across racing and social media - revealed more than enough. This does not mean that the winner was extremely easy to find (my own best outcome was the horse placing second) but understanding what was actually occurring competitively between the horses in the field made the race much easier to decipher than was being generally conveyed.
Unfold
In reading this sometime after the event, it should be clear that the most significant aspect of the race was the presence of a structural gap. They don't occur all the time - that would be odd - but when they do they signify something quite fundamental. The Paddy Power Gold Cup is a top class handicap. Its history is well known. It brings together, year in year out, a band of 'exposed' and somewhat limited entrants and, with them, a number of horses that have a certain degree of residual class and/or the potential to run to a level that has been hidden (intentionally or otherwise) from the handicapper. The horses with the latter profiles are often housed at powerful stables and targeted and trained for a long period at the race. Sometimes the best of them, the winner, ascends into elite competition.
Looking back at the horses said to have denoted a structural gap, Hidden Cyclone (third) ran the best race by some way and emerges with credit. He offered an uneven profile and 152 gave him no wiggle room so there was a lot to like about this effort. Of the others, they finished 8th, 9th, 10th, P, F. The thing to remember is the absence of runners, too, from what would normally be competitive ratings: nothing with a rating of 145, 146 or 147 took part.
Discounting Finian's Rainbow and the three from lower down whose form had become 'exposed', we are left with Rajdhani Express vs Ballynagour / Johns Spirit / Colour Squadron. Ratio: LHM simply means the winner is most likely situated lower; if not there then higher; a winner from the middle would have been surprising. We know now that this contest yielded 5th vs P / Winner / Second. Whatever the betting decisions made from this point, it can be seen that the 'actual' race before us was anything but 'wide open'; it was far more opaque, more visible than that. Nor does anyone need to 'understand' the race to pick the winner: John's Spirit ran in competitive races as a novice, ran at the Festival, won impressively first time out and had a 9lbs pull with Rajdhani Express from March. He was a popular pick for a long time and a deserving winner. Naturally I favoured the other three: Rajdhani had possible improvement to come should the 'lower three' not come up to scratch; Ballynagour was unexposed and physically imposing but had problems with bleeding so fresh seemed sensible; and Colour Squadron was similar to John's Spirit but had yet to show his hand. John's Spirit for his part would be coming from last place, which can be off-putting, but not when storming home in first place. The winner was placed in a multiple instead, which subsequently lost.
The individual reports are not as interesting as working in the knowledge that understanding the race is open and accessible despite what is generally portrayed across racing's prominent outlets and discussion centres. Most of these runners had little chance. The Philosophy of Doubt urges caution when dismissing individual runners, it is sometimes seen as a bit disrespectful, or a bit foolhardy. Yet it is this perspective that leads to a wide range of runners being given 'a chance' and put forward as a winner when in reality that chance is slim to none. Of course, this structural focus is underpinned by analysis of the suitability and limitations of each runner, most of whom were picked apart one way or another. Races have a structure, a certain kind of order, which is just as accessible as basic details such as trainer form, jockey colours and so on. Analytically these pages are concerned more with elite level contests and Graded novice events, but it was interesting to show how a top class handicap unfolded in a way that could be predicted and predicted in a way that is rarely seen or given expression elsewhere. The outcome is always unknown. It sounds strange to say it is irrelevant, but largely it is. The only decisions made are those taken before a race. That is when the greatest wealth of information is known and when mistakes can be avoided. The race will always be run once and there is no repeatability factored into the outcome. What is often found, however, is that the race is analysed or understood via the outcome, by what happened in the race, as if all that went before was somehow meaningless beforehand. This leads to a kind of tautological reasoning where understanding is gained from knowing the winner after the event and working backwards for information, rather than looking for structure and meaningful patterns beforehand. This is essentially why there is so much talk of individual horses, as if they were competing for a prize in isolation, instead of against other horses. It is also why so many 'random' ante-post bets get flushed away.
The Hennessy Gold Cup looks to be taking a more conventional shape and Newbury's big race will be reviewed next, as the elite action fires up culminating in one of the most accessible races of the season, the King George VI Chase.
