Champion Hurdle 2014: Towards Raceday

* Personal preference is highlighted by the descending order of reference (pacemakers excepted).
* Annie Power will be assessed when the intention is clear to run in this race.

Five horses in a line going over the last hurdle (six if adding in Annie Power). That is the image that a general survey of reflections on this race expects. Theoretically and on the surface any one of the front five in the betting could win; Champion Hurdles punish minor errors as much as they promote on-the-day performances, but in a season with (still at this stage) significant depth, there can appear to be a valid variety of potential winners.

However, in any Elite National Hunt race there are invariably only two or sometimes three viable winners once the last obstacle is approached and/or cleared. The theoretical term for this overall process, applied uniquely in analytical terms to National Hunt racing, is entropy. Even if five or more horses were to approach the last obstacle in a line it is almost certain that two or more of them would be physically compromised, unable to continue their efforts to the level required. A good example from Champion Hurdle history is the 2005 edition. The three-horse war to the line is well known but there were two others that had nothing left to give after the last. A highly competitive race with three elite horses bound to each other in the run to the line; but three is still quite unusual. The demands of an elite Festival race replete with the peak physical preparation and ability of its contestants forces different rates of entropy upon them, because the physicality of most runners is in some way not ideally suited to what is required for the race winner. That the three runners from the 2005 renewal were so equally matched is what made the finish so peculiar, as well as exciting.

Of the five leading contenders this season, on all available evidence, two of them may just lack the residual class of the other three. This does not mean that they cannot run on the day into the top triumvirate, both of them have the potential, with more time, to improve their performances.

None more so than Our Conor who created a stir when winning the Triumph Hurdle by fifteen lengths. The performance was labelled afterwards in broadly historic terms, as if stardom beckoned, but what in fact occurred was a high class horse beating an ordinary cluster of horses, and some of those were not physically mature enough to cope with the race conditions either. Moving into open company is always a completely different test, even if the transition is made smoothly. A large number of "classy" novices actually lack residual class because what they display in their winning season is often momentum-dependent: this means that in the flow of a season whilst racing, training and racing again they develop a level of ability that reinforces itself; their talent and physical abilities are harnessed and developed, and they become powerful and finally tuned athletes, with performances to match. The end of the season strips that away. They stop; they de-train; but horses that lack that innate level of residual class then struggle to pick up where they left off, they are not in the same vein or mentality of training and racing and, allied to that, the opposition they are now asked to face off against is a notch higher, sometimes more than that. Their physicality is changed under the pressure of more demanding competition. The truly high class novices, physical problems not withstanding, resume their curves of progression. In finishing around 6L third to Hurricane Fly in the Ryanair Hurdle on his first hurdles start for nine and a half months, Our Conor can in one sense be said to have transferred his ability into open company. In another sense though there appears to be an element of momentum-dependence about him: he was inexplicably asked to run in a flat race for his reappearance run, and to do so very early on, in October. This suggests that the horse - still only a 4yo at that point - had encountered some physical problems and that they needed him to race in some way to confirm he could begin his hurdles campaign. Given that he was made to wait until the end of the year to do so reveals that all was not one hundred percent with him and his run in behind Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown (16f, Soft) confirmed there had been problems with his physicality.

Breathless: Our Conor (right) folds into third under the glare of the dual Champion but what do we really know about his On/Behind bridle ratio?

In positive terms he moved up well to take a proper hand in the contest quite deep into the race; but it was notable how his bridle ratio was stretched out completely by that effort and he finished off his race like a very tired horse. In the Irish Champion Hurdle physical improvement was certainly evident. He moved with greater strength and power and went deeper into the race, heading Hurricane Fly with a better jump only for the reigning champion to resolutely put him to the sword on the run to the line. Again though, Our Conor wilted visibly. The physical difference between juvenile and open company emerged quite clearly. In the Triumph the "spectacular" aspect of his win was that it was done via the "on" part of his bridle ratio with little else required. But what his two runs in Ireland have shown is that there is a question mark regarding the "behind" aspect. His distribution of energy is not at this stage as even as it needs to be. He went from cruising ominously through the race and to just after the last, to sharply behind the bridle without much effect. His transfer of energy in this sense was so limited that Hurricane Fly was pulling away quite rapidly the faster the winning line came to them, such was the extent of Our Conor's energy dilution.

Our Conor is clearly a top class prospect. The tricky question analytically is whether or not his uneven On/Behind bridle ratio is a symptom of physical immaturity in a young horse or an innate, technical aspect of his physicality. If it is the latter he will be undone in the Champion Hurdle for sure; if it is the former will a further six weeks of recovery, training and strengthening be enough for him to sustain a battle from behind the bridle for much longer than he has been able to so far.

Jezki, too, has the severe physical demands of the Champion Hurdle to answer. The three races he has lost over hurdles have come in the three most significant races. In the Supreme Novices Hurdle he travelled well behind Champagne Fever and My Tent Or Yours but could not get past either, a mistake at the last hurdle sealing his fate; in the Ryanair Hurdle he suffered interference but only because he was not travelling with enough purpose to extricate himself with tactical pace, but he galloped on well once in the clear, without making any indent in the gap to the winner, who had originally glided past him quite effortlessly by contrast; and it was a similar story in the Irish Champion Hurdle where he was the first to switch behind the bridle and race proper but again could not do so with anywhere near enough power to overhaul the three horses in front of him at any point. Jezki doesn't pull through keenness and his energy distribution is quite even, perhaps too even. In the face of a strongish gallop (Supreme) he was comfortable but unable to get racing effectively behind the bridle (even before the last hurdle); in the face of a more tactical gallop he couldn't muster the elite pace change-up that is required in such cases, something Hurricane Fly has long mastered. Jezki, for example, does not have the in-running comment "quickened" in his profile as yet.

The optimal range of his energy distribution is likely to be very central, not unlike that of Oscar Whisky. Jezki can probably track any elite pace, but over two miles it drains his bridle energy to an extent that leaves him unable to impact the last stages of a race at that distance. All of this must of course bear in mind that he is only six years of age and may still be developing physically and more physical strength would help him cope with the full demands of an elite two mile race. Nonetheless that race would most likely still need to be run at a strong pace, something that is often erroneously taken for granted even in Festival races. As pointed to below, were Un De Sceaux to take his place in the field that would narrow the tactical range of the race and potentially favour those who are best chasing a strong but legitimate gallop. Jezki can acquit himself well in those circumstances, which did not materialise in the Irish Champion Hurdle either. The problem is that the strength of the race at Cheltenham may overpower him at this stage and he looks to have a similar physical imprint to Zarkandar. The Aintree Hurdle may see Jezki at his most effective and threatening.

Hunter: Jezki's lack of tactical pace change-ups was evident in the Supreme Novices, Ryanair Hurdle (below) and Irish Champion Hurdle

It is not difficult to understand why Hurricane Fly has not quite hit the heights of the UK's "public imagination and admiration" whilst clearly being an extraordinary and historic two mile hurdler. Prior to this season his wins in Ireland were largely facile. He won a thrilling Champion Hurdle in 2011 but was soundly beaten the following year following continual, niggling physical problems. He returned to win again last season in historic but not stylish fashion and therein lies the rub, for a Champion Hurdle is associated with an element of raw speed and excitement, and that was lacking in his performance. The other obvious reason is that in the UK he would only rank around fourth or fifth on a stellar list of recent thrill-seekers: Kauto Star won five King George Chases; Big Buck's strung together four World Hurdles consecutively and it would in all likelihood have been five but for injury; Bobs Worth achieved his own history, winning three different races and in consecutive seasons at the Cheltenham Festival and now attempts a fourth; and Sprinter Sacre is The Boss Man, the apotheosis of strut. Hurricane Fly has his place, but that place is among and for many just behind those equine stars hence a measure of ambivalence when attempts are made to push him higher than where he naturally rests.

That would change a little were he to win a third Champion Hurdle in four years at the age of ten, an achievement that would rightly shine the starry lights upon him, however he achieved it. The overriding sense, one that requires no explanation, is that this time he has to push past too many rivals, past the hungriest, fastest pack he has faced since 2011. Simple individual entropy will undo him at some point, as it will Big Buck's, as it did Kauto Star. Analytically his task would be made all the harder by the presence of his heart-on-sleeve galloper stablemate Un De Sceaux. The master of tactical pace change-ups, Hurricane Fly was stretched off the bridle at the half way point last year by a strong gallop that was false and unable to be maintained. This time that gallop, when Un De Sceaux falters, will be continued by at least two and possibly three horses with elite class, youth and power on a progressive developmental curve. For those choosing to think (as is their right) that "it was the same last year", the last sentence was not applicable last year; it is a very different race this time around.

Which does not mean the best two mile hurdler of his generation cannot win; it means whatever his limitations are they will be exposed far more ruthlessly than last year and that, analytically, is what tempers enthusiasm. His customary workmanlike seasonal debut locked away, he showed the new Irish youngsters exactly what it means to be potentially elite and full of hope as opposed to simply elite and having to deliver. He travelled comfortably in rear, moved smoothly around the outside and put the race to bed quickly. Leopardstown, where he is eight from eight, and soft ground in a small field: opponents need not apply; it was much the same story in the Irish Champion Hurdle, too, only it unfolded differently. There he ran in second of the four runners, launched his challenge but was eyeballed by Our Conor at the last. Hurricane Fly had to quickstep the hurdle - it wasn't a fluent jump - but incredibly (not unlike The New One at Kempton) as soon as he landed he was able to start motoring instantly, besting his main pursuer and with an iron mentality run hard and true to the line, pulling away impressively at the end.

At Cheltenham, as his trainer and jockey freely admit, his performances have not been as imperious as they would like or expect. Better ground and a festival elite gallop pace stretches out his energy distribution, making the middle part of the race his strongest, which seems counter-intuitive given it was around that point where he has struggled visually in the last two renewals. Yes and no. Last year he was obviously not as smooth or quick in the early part of the race, which led to his jockey having to physically ask him to gather his paces but the response was quite impressive. It is worth bearing in mind that Hurricane Fly was never that far away from the strong travelling ("fast") Grandouet so he was never detached in any way, far from it. He won the race thereafter by gradually closing down the leaders from four out to the final bend where he joined Rock On Ruby for the lead; once away from the final bend he didn't put a lot of distance between himself and his inferiors, most likely because he was just galloping on at one pace with heart and desire and the effort of that was highlighted towards the line, where he and his pursuers all appeared to tire dramatically, an indicator of just how much energy they had all used by the time they arrived at the last hurdle. Yet in 2011 it was different: he cruised through most of that race which was again strongly run (Overturn handed the baton to Peddler's Cross), but he was taking his jockey into the race far more easily, to the extent that Ruby Walsh only really began to ask his horse to start racing proper approaching the last. To the structural depth of the race corresponds the depth of energy reserves needed to prevail in that race: Hurricane Fly's fourth biggest test will demand the deepest reserves of energy yet.

Responding: Having already used up more energy than expected, Hurricane Fly begins the descent

Switch: Unlike 2011 Hurricane Fly is switching fully behind the bridle around the bend, finding around 2L for pressure

Maintenance: Because he has been racing behind the bridle for some time, the gap has not altered; galloping at one pace off the final bend was enough to win the race, the hard work had already been done

The decision to keep My Tent Or Yours over hurdles may have had many strands of thought. The same owner lost the hugely promising Darlan to a fatal fall last season and his enigmatic former Champion Hurdler Binocular was retired. Under different ownership, the stable had tried unsuccessfully for two seasons to allow Grandouet to showcase his talent, missing the race then falling in it. This constellation of factors probably led to My Tent Or Yours deserving of his chance and Grandouet being switched to a campaign over fences. This is mentioned because to date My Tent Or Yours travels with a power and a thunder that is reminiscent of Sprinter Sacre: it is not a simple keenness but a sheer force of will to run through the race with a level of power that corresponds to a high level of innate talent. It is incredible to watch but not at all efficient. Having disposed of handicappers in the Betfair Hurdle - again tanking through the race - he met is elite level match in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, in large part because he was hacking for a full mile and a half at a faster pace than his jockey wanted to allow. He challenged at the last, stayed and battled, but the far more energy efficient Champagne Fever justifiably kept him at bay, confirming himself a high class dual festival winning horse in his own right.

Generation X: Three closely matched future elite horses but with very different forms of energy distribution. The analytics of physicality decided the race

His Aintree win ended his novice season as emphatically as he would begin anew in open company in the Fighting Fifth. In both cases he was far better than his opponents, so the "tanking" and energy shedding were unimportant. It nearly caught him out yet again in the Christmas Hurdle, however, when although not as dramatically as in the Supreme Novices he was still insistent on speaking to his jockey continually. The key point with this aspect of his physicality is that over fences the natural forward propulsion in his movement will be boosted or favoured going over fence after fence: he will actually save energy and lengths compared to most of his rivals because for him it will be easy but others will have to expend extra energy to deal with the obstacle at pace. Sprinter Sacre doesn't do much racing at the end of his races because (long) before then he has snapped the bridle ratio of his rivals. Over hurdles the whole motion of jumping is far less pronounced so My Tent Or Yours' energy is not being put to use as he tanks because he is gaining little compared to his opponents and they are using their energy better in the latter part of the race. His class alone can beat most, but not all. Not least because his hurdling is not always fluent; he is probably preoccupied with the conversation with his jockey and sometimes the hurdles appear as an inconvenience as opposed to a part of his job. Again, fences remove that problem; big things in the way focus the mind.

My Tent Or Yours' On/Behind bridle ratio over hurdles is therefore quite fixed at elite level. As is obvious by now it heavily favours the former without being at the expense of the latter, as Kempton proved. He has battled hard and true when switching behind the bridle in both the Supreme Novices and the Christmas Hurdle but as those two results show the effects of his earlier stage racing style can swing the result either way depending on any number of unforeseen race variables.

The Christmas Hurdle was an exceptionally strong race. As they approached the final turn, The New One put so much pace into the race that by by the time they turned into the straight proper not only was everything bar My Tent Or Yours beaten there and then, but The New One himself had to switch behind the bridle and race from a long way out. He had gone around the bend without any noticeable effort, it was a devastating injection of galloping class, one that was matched by My Tent Or Yours who, finally settled not long ago, was sent into stalking mode, held together for as long as possible. Away from the second last hurdle The New One was asked for it all, the behind the bridle power that saw him run away with the Neptune Novices hurdle; and My Tent Or Yours was told to race proper in pursuit. He did so with relish. Two top class racehorses had pulled some thirty lengths away from their field and were head down, behind the bridle, pouring it on against each other. My Tent Or Yours clawed back the length of his rival and they took off over the last at the same time. Remarkably, despite crashing his front legs through the hurdle and landing askew, The New One picked up again immediately at racing pace alongside his rival, but the slightest loss of momentum and My Tent Or Yours' slicker jump ceded the advantage to the latter, who fought past his rival, both of them all out. All of this on soft to heavy tiring ground. It was an epic war.

Eyes front: A long, sustained and pulsating duel that will be replayed in March

The analytics were covered by the jockeys after the race. In My Tent Or Yours' case McCoy spoke about not being able to fire his horse at his hurdles, a combination of a tactical early gallop making his horse keen (as usual, in fairness), having a job to hold him together at his hurdles as it was (“I couldn’t let him fly at one because he was doing enough as it was and if he had I wouldn't have held him."), and the testing ground. McCoy continues to play down his horse's merits, as he had done similarly after Newcastle, but his horse is shouting over him and he will again in the Kingwell Hurdle.

Ulysses S. Grant once said: "In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten then he who continues the attack wins". This is the acid test of mentality for THE NEW ONE. At Kempton on deep ground with talented but by comparison moderate opposition bar his main rival, the gallop had been understandably limited which is why his jockey asked The New One to put the pedal down after jumping three out, which is some distance. "Nothing we did suited him. It was just very annoying. I wanted to get My Tent Or Yours under pressure early enough, but I couldn't get him at it" was the view of jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, commenting on a plan devised with his trainer-father, whilst complementing the winner at the same time. On reflection they may question the merit of creating a target so early for a horse that has the physicality to track any gallop of any intensity, but the fear of being a victim of superior acceleration was uppermost in their minds. What was felt in the aftermath is that a stronger gallop from the start would have stretched out the "on" aspect of My Tent Or Yours' bridle ratio sooner leaving his "behind" capacity more diluted, something akin to that which unfolded in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, but the conditions at Kempton made that ploy difficult. At Cheltenham the gallop will be more fierce, more sustained and the belief is that while both he and My Tent Or Yours will be able to cope with that level of elite pace gallop, The New One will possibly have more reserves of energy once they switch behind the bridle, more akin to the finish of the Neptune Novices Hurdle. (Although the gallop in that race was moderate it was over much further and The New One's energy distribution was strongest at the end of the race.)

Having dispatched a lacklustre Rock On Ruby first time out, The International Hurdle at Cheltenham was a revealing race. The New One renewed rivalry with his Aintree Hurdle conqueror from last season, stalked him as that horse led the field into the home straight, passed him effortlessly as that horse was being asked a question from behind him, then possibly idled after jumping the last allowing Zarkandar back upsides, before pulling away with hands and heels when asked, to win easily by six lengths. The New One does run through the top of some of his hurdles in his races, including the last here (as at Kempton, too), but the revealing thing is how little difference it makes to his energy distribution. The Kempton example was extraordinary; here at Cheltenham he idled because he had no company and the race had been quite easy for him. The final action would have unfolded in a more natural way had Zarkandar not been hindered, but as it was that rival lost momentum and had to be gathered up again for a final charge that was short lived once The New One was asked to run away from him. It's possible too that The New One's jump at the last hurdle coincided with his natural process of switching behind the bridle a little - a notable energy shift that is present in most of his races - so the brief appearance of idling may have been nothing other than a transfer of energy phase, a shift in his On/Behind bridle ratio. What is clear is that he has a toughened, elite level mentality. He pointed to that aspect of his character in his Bumper days, finishing sixth to Champagne Fever and then, undaunted by that experience, going on to Aintree and mastering none other than My Tent Or Yours in a close finish. He who continues the attack wins.

In a race where the most effective distribution of energy will be crucial, purely in analytical terms, The New One has the most efficient and even curve. This brings to the fore the question of what kind of elite pace gallop will feature in the race, which cannot be known until much nearer the time. The presence of Un De Sceaux would greatly favour The New One and My Tent Or Yours; his absence would not hinder them necessarily but would offer Hurricane Fly more assistance. A lack of appropriate racing language, not to mention imagination, shines through the words "could be anything". Quite clearly he is anything but anything. A six year old but with only four starts under rules and none of them even remotely competitive events. He is an out-and-out front running galloper that his jockey describes as "wearing his heart on his sleeve" - a reference that usually refers to strong mental qualities that cover a slight lack of class or talent and his trainer was a little more open: "We will have to consider whether pitching him into the Champion Hurdle at this stage of his career would be the wisest thing to do".  What Un De Sceaux would offer is the kind of gallop that would help the pace-stamina and tanking-gallop qualities of The New One and My Tent Or Yours respectively. He would stretch out most of the field's bridle ratios, including Hurricane Fly's, whose class would enable a sustained response mid-race but he would not be able to claw back the kind of duel the younger pair served up at Kempton. Un De Sceaux himself would be a spent force rounding the final bend, if not before, as once approached having raced so fully, there would be no transition to be made behind the bridle at that level, no energy left to transfer. 

Without him, as trainer and jockey hinted would be the case, the emphasis swings back on to THE NEW ONE's jockey to get the tactical fractions right from wherever he is positioned in the race. On that front Sam Twiston-Davies has experienced a number of different scenarios already: The narrow defeat to At Fisher's Cross where he quickened too soon in heavy ground over 21f; the Neptune Novices Hurdle where he gathered his horse together rounding the bend to unleash a long and sustained phase of power behind the bridle; and the two very different tactical races most recently. He could not have more information to work with; his horse has the physical, mental and tactical characteristics to win under almost any conditions. Cheltenham gives him the stage to prove it.

Neptune Novices Hurdle: Preliminary Thoughts

A race that continues to provide for runners with very high potential. Even when just taking the recent past into account: Mikael d'Haguenet rattled off a six-timer in his winning season; Peddlers Cross went down by a length to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle; First Lieutenant came second in the RSA Chase and second in the Ryanair Chase; Simonsig won the Arkle Chase; and The New One is among the favourites for the Champion Hurdle having won the International Hurdle. This is a tough roll-call to get in line for. 

Chief among those in waiting is Faugheen. Reference to Pont Alexandre (favourite but well beaten in this race last year for the same stable) is worth dismissing unless it focuses for comparative purposes on their respective physicality, which is the significant aspect. Pont Alexandre had the build of, and ran akin to that of, a strapping three mile chaser. He powered his frame through deep ground against inferior rivals but he did not do it quickly and the accompanying disparity between racecourse evidence, Festival race suitability and general expectation bordered on the enormous. Faugheen is much better situated. He is quite a narrow horse. His chest and shoulders do not offer a great deal of staying power at this stage; he is built to race quickly when required, but the engine does not necessarily cut out over longer trips. Although he is something of an unknown quantity - because he has simply outclassed all his rivals to date - that is not an excuse to opine that he "could be anything" when quite clearly that is not the case (nor is it ever). We also know more about him on the racecourse than was the case with Pont Alexandre, for example. Faugheen won a 24f Point race (as did Simonsig) before dismantling Josses Hill, who looks very promising himself this season. Including his Point victory, the following in-race comments appear: "qckn clr", "quickened clear", "travelled easily...not extended", "eased into lead next...easily" and from his latest and least impressive performance, "easily". That was over three miles in heavy ground but by again outclassing inferior rivals it was a performance that strongly evidenced why three miles under Festival conditions is not something that would be particularly suitable. His On/Behind bridle ratio is very much tilted in favour of the former.

Speed: Faugheen has a smoothness of movement for specific reasons but hurdling could be more fluent

Only recently, Simonsig and The New One's "jumping" was sometimes brought up as a negative, yet both won this race comfortably, Simonsig going on to win an Arkle Chase despite carrying an infection and The New One going on to win an International Hurdle this season. Hurdling techniques are rarely perfect; they combine with or result from the physicality of the horse and the conditions in which they race on any given day. Faugheen on occasion jumps from the shoulder, so he will run to a hurdle and push his shoulders over first leaving the legs a bit stiff and straight as they go over, rather than those components working together in a more fluid movement. Such aspects of micro-analysis rarely present a problem to elite horses so if Faugheen is a top class novice in waiting his hurdling will not affect his Neptune performance in any significant way. As of yet though we have not seen him switch behind the bridle, and that aspect of his physicality is still largely unknown.

Which is not the case with the identifiably more robust The Tullow Tank. He is unbeaten this season with two Grade One victories to show for his efforts, winning the latest of those by 8L at Leopardstown. In that race he was obviously well on top at the end of the race but the same was also true for his win in the Royal Bond, despite the much narrower winning margin. In terms of physicality what can be seen on the racecourse has also been clearly stated by his trainer: "He was impressive the last day in that the further he went the better he was...He can race on and off the bridle so [jockey] Danny (Mullins) did well because he's not the easiest ride", whilst bearing in mind that stamina in terms of distance has yet to be asked of the horse, having raced exclusively over two miles thus far (he will race over 18f in the Deloitte Hurdle). 

Shoulder Press: The Tullow Tank has size and power on the front end

That physicality is underpinned by the presence of strapping, powerful shoulders. He is a horse of notable size and as such is a much different proposition to Faugheen. He most likely lacks the potential residual class of that horse but a defining aspect of physicality in general is how the underlying engine is used and to that end The Tullow Tank's work in the second half of his races is an admirable strength. In the Royal Bond (Dec 1, goodish ground) he raced prominently in third or fourth; a signpost towards his On/Behind bridle ratio came approaching and rounding the final turn as his reins were being shaken to get closer and once round the bend he began to switch behind the bridle - some way out for a two mile hurdle race. There was no loss of ground and once energised he began his task of wearing down the leader without allowing the rival chasing him much of a look in, powering home in sustained fashion to be well on top at the line. 

In the Future Champion Novices Hurdle (Dec 27, soft) the class of race, the minimum distance and the ground likely conspired to make the early part of the race the most demanding he had faced. His jockey later reported that at one point along the back of the course he thought he was going to struggle - the strong wind was affecting his horse too, he said - but The Tullow Tank persevered and found his level subsequently. As previously these were not smooth race transitions but the horse either had the class, the force of will or both to keep rolling and jumping and, faced with the request to race from behind the bridle, decided not to stop answering until the jockey told him to, demolishing the field by eight lengths. The Deloitte Hurdle will reveal more about him and his suitability for a goodish ground top class race over further at the Festival. It is interesting analytically to compare him with Faugheen though: where does the convergence of styles and energy usage favour two talented horses; one whose work is largely within his own comfort zone owing, in all likelihood, to sheer class of engine against one who will be strongest in the latter part of his race, but can it be said he will be in close enough contention to strike without having expended too much energy beforehand?

Thus as with most novice races at the Festival openness of mind can provide for different possible scenarios. One of those involves The Liquidator. David Pipe has one of the outstanding novices of the season in King's Palace: allowed to run from the outset at distances he would excel at, that horse has done almost everything in smooth phases through his races. With The Liquidator his runs over two miles suggest an alteration to the distance is required. His fourth to Briar Hill in the Cheltenham Bumper suggested many possible things but he didn't travel through the race under the cover of a two miler, lacking tactical gallop pace at crucial points but staying on resolutely. Of course, we aren't to know his level of maturity or stage of physicality at that point and his stroll around Carlisle revealed little.

His next start was interesting, at Cheltenham on good ground in a Supreme Novices titled trial race (17f), but the performance and subsequent intimations from his stable revealed that Festival race to be unlikely. As a race it was a non-event with none of his three opponents proving capable or interested in racing him. It emerged after that they had wanted "to take the sting out of Sea Lord's finish" but that horse was struggling from a long way out, perhaps with a physical problem. The Liquidator therefore set off in front and at a good pace, slightly keen early on but well enough settled with proficient jumping. Interestingly, he was going so (unnecessarily) fast having run downhill to two out that although jumping the hurdle well enough he almost pecked significantly on landing, but did well to maintain his balance and pick up his gallop. Nonetheless, this was not a performance that allowed for an even distribution of energy; nor was it a run of a "speedy" two miler in a stalking-the-pace mode. Approaching and around the final bend his jockey began shaking his reins repeatedly with a slap to the neck each time: asking for more, almost like a test. On straightening to aim at the hill he was given a crack of the whip - all this despite being well clear with the race won - and with the horse appearing to tire from his earlier running, was ridden strongly out towards the line.

Afterwards his trainer admitted that it was "not the ideal way to ride him today" referring to his own choice of tactics with his jockey pointing to winning the Punchestown Champion Bumper as an indication of stamina requirements. Overall, this run was a clear exercise in learning more about the horse's On/Behind bridle ratio and his energy distribution capabilities. When the stamina sapping Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was switched to the sharper, speedier Kempton Park track David Pipe was much less keen to run in the race.

Lean and Keen: The Liquidator's 'barrel' or girth appears slight towards the back end or flank hind

The Liquidator is quite a lean horse with no obvious physical signs as yet of strong staying power. This is most likely why he is being kept to the minimum trip for now (his Dam was a low level staying type) whilst they learn more about his specific in-race capabilities. Competing in a 'proper' race will reveal more about those capabilities for everyone.

January 11: Update following the Tolworth Hurdle: The Liquidator was extremely disappointing, beaten a long way out. As at Cheltenham he seemed to naturally tire a long way out but this time the competition was much stronger and glided past him easily. His energy distribution is a major concern and could be symptomatic of a physical/breathing problem. His lean back-end is also a concern and better ground over a longer trip is likely to be forthcoming. Front-running does not seem to suit him well at all.

January 20:
Royal Boy offers a fairly natural potential conundrum, because it can sometimes be difficult to assess that potential through the mist of powerful connections. Certainly his regular jockey had a similar struggle, as he opted to choose the year younger Josses Hill in the rescheduled Tolworth Hurdle. All of which is compounded by the fact that Royal Boy was not among the original entries for the race, until a reluctance to send him over two and a half miles in deep ground at Warwick led him to Kempton.

Another reason was that he is "not a slow horse" by which his trainer most likely means he has a certain amount of residual class. That is borne out to an extent by his impressive first run (narrowly defeated) over hurdles against Melodic Rendezvous, before finishing third to that horse in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle where an injury curtailed his season. He reappeared from absence over 21f on good ground at Kempton in a novice chase - so soft ground was not essential - where again he moved as if feeling a physical problem. Given that he was then dropped back to hurdles it is likely to have been muscle problems, but no official reason was given after the race, in which he was beaten 44L.

He remained at middle distances four weeks later for a facile win in a moderate maiden hurdle (his first win under Rules) at Ascot over 22f on soft ground. He was impressive in travelling easily on the bridle until shaken up towards the last to stride away. Markedly up in class - back to the Grade One he tried to win last season - and the energy distribution was similar. Prominent the whole way and moving strongly into the lead rounding the final bend he moved smoothly behind the bridle to begin a war with his stablemate, the pair pulling eleven lengths clear of the remaining runners. What was notable was that for a horse better suited to middle distances, Royal Boy was not stretched out by either the ground or the pace of this two mile contest and he showed tenacity to battle back from being marginally nosed out to master his rival before the line.

In terms of physicality there are some similarities with Finian's Rainbow for the same owner and trainer. Royal Boy won his 3m Point, Finian's Rainbow was unfortunate to fall when leading at the last in his. Both had one hurdles start before going up to Grade One company, Finian's Rainbow went to the Challow Hurdle instead (1L third), and was then prepped by winning a moderate race in February before tackling the Neptune Novices Hurdle, which is now the plan for Royal Boy. The difference comes in that Royal Boy will have had an extra season under Rules to mature physically before running in his Cheltenham target race. This could be significant as Finian's Rainbow perhaps lacked physical maturity and strength in both his Neptune and Arkle attempts, before winning a Champion Chase at the age of nine. So a key aspect of assessing Royal Boy's Neptune potential relies on knowledge of the extent to which he has matured and strengthened in his own right but also comparatively to Finian's Rainbow would be interesting too.

As potentially the chief danger to Faugheen, Royal Boy's smooth race transitions and even energy distribution underpins an On/Behind bridle ratio that is seemingly well-suited to his Festival target. It is interesting to compare those aspects of his physicality with the much different ones of The Tullow Tank.

Touchdown: Josses Hill hits the turf first but Royal Boy is still strong behind the bridle

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle: Preliminary Thoughts

A race that was given Grade One status in 2008. The novice version of the staying hurdle division is open to all, as despite Nicky Henderson landing a 1-2 in the race in 2011 Messrs Nicholls and Mullins have yet to claim the race for their stables. With the quality of runner they possess as a group they can strike at any time, but the amount of general attention afforded their runners does nothing to help the performances they produce. Paul Nicholls went close in 2008 (3rd) and 2009 (2nd); Berties Dream and all the big-priced placed horses claimed the podium in 2010; both the main hopes of Nicholls and Mullins were pulled up in 2011; Boston Bob (2nd) had no answers to Brindisi Breeze in 2012; and 2013 went the way of Rebecca Curtis, expectedly so for many. Until anything clearer emerges, this year could be a case of Messrs Henderson and Mullins trying to prevent the trophy from arriving at the Pipe Barn.

Briar Hill's dam was an unraced sister to Boston Bob and, in the same ownership, Briar Hill displays strikingly similar physical characteristics and the concomitant praise of that horse. Where Briar Hill differs from Boston Bob, at this stage, is that he has not been galloped with Hurricane Fly and Quevega. Workmanlike at home, the lack of "hype" saw him ransack the Cheltenham Bumper at 25/1 where as ever "the price" had no physical impact on the horse's performance. Briar Hill's physicality is quite simple to gauge on the basis of his racetrack runs, so any distortion of that physicality is likely to come from inaccurate analysis, "expectation", comments attributed to his trainer and/or comments attributed to his jockey. The following is a selection from wins at Cheltenham, Wexford, Navan and Naas:

Quotes can be used in any number of ways to suit a variety of purposes; here we are only interested in the way in which connections perceive their horse in relation to what can be observed on the track. The word that is misplaced is "speed". None of his hurdle runs display speed. What they may be referring to is the ability to gallop at an elite pace, so that if he can move comfortably with good horses attempting to gallop strongly beyond him then this would indicate tactical pace or, misused, the term "speed". At both Navan and Naas Briar Hill can be clearly seen to switch behind the bridle in extremely small field, moderate gallop races. A horse with "speed" would not need to do this and on better ground this would only be accentuated. At Navan when making all against Azorian his jumping went technically awry as a result most likely of lack of experience: he appeared unsure how to coordinate his effort to race effectively with the timing required to jump. Once he had got rolling more fully, he cleared the last hurdle easily and bounded clear. At Naas he was in second the whole way and chasing a rival with a narrower, more compact physique who was quite quick across his obstacles. There were no problems for Briar Hill; his power behind the bridle was showcased because it took a while to master the horse in front but in the fashion of a good stayer once he had done so that power grew stronger and more effective and he was clear at the line. 

Briar Hill himself is a strong, muscular horse. He has good size but not a worryingly large frame. So far he has displayed a number of important aspects. He looks for the time being to be of a sound constitution, having run well and recovered well from three runs already; his mentality is strong so that despite the impression of "only doing enough" he has the even energy distribution required of a stayer and applies himself well at the end of his races; and he has confirmed the initial signs of residual class displayed in his Cheltenham Bumper win. It has to be held in mind that we are unaware of his training programme and that the curve of his physical progression is being shaped towards March, where he will have to "race" from the outset in a big field at Festival pace on better ground, a constellation of factors he will probably relish. 

Driven: Briar Hill has strong galloping power when switching behind the bridle

He does not have the "speed" for a Neptune Novices Hurdle, but that assumes that there are runners with a certain profile and with enough class in that race to make that observation a problem and is likely one of the many reasons why his actual race target is yet to be defined. Many trainers with live festival candidates face similar decision-making processes. From Briar Hill's race performances over hurdles to date a novice in the vicinity of The New One's calibre would cause him no end of problems but this is a new year and a different renewal. His chances in the Albert Bartlett will depend on the extent to which his more obvious hurdling limitations - he is likely to become a better chaser than hurdler - can be exposed by his opponents. In that respect one obvious candidate leaps into contention.

King's Palace. His only defeat when completing the course (he fell two out in a soft ground Ayr bumper almost a year ago) came against an opponent he may well face again in this race, the one year older Captain Cutter just outstayed him in a heavy ground Ascot bumper. Captain Cutter won the Grade One Challow Hurdle at the end of December although he has yet to race at three miles (which is fine). King's Palace on the other hand has been driving the miles into his legs with three wins this season over 23f, 26f and 24f, all on good ground, the latter being one of the sponsored trials for this event.

King's Palace displays a varied mix of physical attributes. He is taller and more athletic than Briar Hill, for example; not as muscular in the chest but with a strong stamp of a neck. He gallops exuberantly from the front without being keen and avoids using up unnecessary energy. Not unlike Cue Card, for example, he sets his opponents a test and asks them if they have any answers and, bar being a little green and uncharacteristically moderate over the last two hurdles at Fontwell on debut, nothing he has faced subsequently has been able to pull up a chair for that exam. Wide margin wins are often misleading for one reason or another - Our Conor's Triumph Hurdle victory is a prominent example - but in winning twice at Cheltenham by a combined 32L King's Palace performed with a kind of physicality that offers little doubt about his ability to replicate his running power in a Grade One event.

Keep Up: King's Palace's hurdling has been amongst the best of any novice this season

King's Palace's hurdling since his debut win has been outstanding. So far we can say that he rarely breaks stride when jumping despite the high-level gallop he sets himself; his taller, athletic frame seems to help maintain his body position whilst lifting his legs over the hurdle, meaning there is very little loss of momentum at any stage. This technique allied to the level of class he is displaying combine to break his opponents. An interesting aspect of his jumping may link to his bridle ratio, in that what would happen if he made a mistake? Many horses in his division are not travelling as fast or with as much confidence as he does: they may hit or brush through a hurdle but it does not alter their rhythm much as they can quickly pick up their gallop again on the landing side. It may be that a mistake - how serious it would need to be is impossible to say - from King's Palace would hurt the optimal range of his On/Behind bridle ratio. For a horse that races with such power in his own comfort zone, it is questionable how much racing power he would be able to offer when switched behind the bridle. The effectiveness of his weaponry relies on opponents not being able to keep close enough to him in the last quarter of the race, but any mistake(s) would reduce the distance he was in front by and make a challenge from behind the bridle by an opponent a distinct possibility, at which point a clear convergence of available power would favour his pursuer(s). If King's Palace puts in an error-free round he is likely to be extremely difficult to catch in this race, and minor errors are unlikely to alter such a scenario.

Captain Cutter will likely be one of the main pursuers. His win in the Challow Hurdle was impressive perhaps mostly for the fact that he came from last to stay resolutely past the field in heavy ground. However much those conditions clearly suited him well, to do that to opponents in a Grade One contest shows a complimentary mix of racing power. His trainer's assistant summed him up succinctly:

That progression has been energised in a different way to his main rival since beating him in heavy ground on debut in a bumper at Ascot. He has not been asked to run at three miles most likely because only then will he have been trained to deliver his maximum for the season. His races to date show that he grows in strength as his race develops. However, unlike King's Palace, Captain Cutter's hurdling can hinder his rhythm, as it did most notably at Market Rasen over 19f on good to soft ground. He raced more prominently than he would later in the Challow Hurdle, but a mistake at the seventh seemed to set him back a little and his jockey was forced to ensure he outclassed his rivals rather than the horse naturally and easily doing so. Perhaps this was the reason he was allowed to race more in his own time at Newbury on his next start, given that it was a Grade One (albeit in deep ground) and that connections would have been fairly sure he was well up to the required level. As with Briar Hill, the key question for Captain Cutter revolves around whether he has the technical ability to still be in contention should King's Palace deliver the tour de force he is capable of, especially on much better ground than the Challow. Like Briar Hill, the most striking aspect of his physicality is his ability to race powerfully once behind the bridle; but the race may be won by tactical pace rather than force of will.

Let's Roll: Captain Cutter will need to hurdle smoothly for his staying power to become effective

2014 Premiership Prediction Update (halfway)

Pre-Season:

Halfway Point:

This is just for fun. Giving reasons would run to several pages, and answer nothing, nor be particularly useful. Nonetheless, as with racing, there were a number of structural regularities and changes that could be clearly observed prior to the season starting. 

In prediction order:

Manchester City gave everything to win the Premier League for the first time in the modernized competition's era. They then "partied" on the success as one of their main rivals went through a peculiar Indian Summer of strength. In finishing a well-held second and having tumbled unceremoniously out of the Champions League a further £100m or so was requisitioned to a new manager and, just as importantly, a World Cup year season loomed, ensuring maximum player commitment for maximum Brazil attention. Their players once again had no excuse for lack of performance, although some of the away displays have been unnaturally lax. It was obvious they had the best squad of players, so as long as their motivation remains fixed they should win the League. 

Given their extraordinary attacking options and physicality in midfield Chelsea could not be far behind and were it not for some clear issues in the centre forward department they may well have been able to claim the Title (they still could of course). Nonetheless, more so than in previous seasons they seem to be a team of individuals, not as knitted together as they were previously under their idiosyncratic manager. The declining force of John Terry and Frank Lampard is one reason, the lack of a totemic talisman up front is another (save for references to a lack of historical tradition in the Abramovich era). But when a team can spend £30m on a player such as Willian whilst freezing out a player beginning to border on World Class in Juan Mata, then top two is generally guaranteed.

Putting Manchester United in third place was a force of will. It was in many ways a compliment to a squad that had been in decline for at least two seasons, one that had been left unattended by a manger in pursuit of a personal ending. Their previous manager had to retire with a Premier League Title and for that reason he bought one of the best Premier League strikers (when fit) and left the rest of the team to splinter away. Alex Ferguson's and Manchester United's Indian Summer combined as Manchester City eased off the pedal, but what was left for David Moyes bordered on a shambles which he himself did not help in a truly bizarre pre-season transfer market for the club. All previous forms of "influence" and "intimidation" (everyone can put their own versions in there) would clearly slip away and opposing teams now had no excuse but to attack their more illustrious rivals with a belief that they were a fading light. Whether this squad deserves to be in the top five is the more pertinent question at the halfway point. Clearly not as yet, given they lie in seventh.

Liverpool finally fell into the hands of intelligent owners, who made no mistake in employing one of the best young Premier League managers around. Years of mismanagement at boardroom and training ground level, and years of sterile (Benitez, Hodgson) and chaotic, unstructured (Dalglish) patterns of Premier League play were finally consigned to history for the foreseeable future. Now, in the hands of a potentially top class manager, a firm and proper infrastructure is being built, and for the first time this century a clearly articulated, theoretically derived and distinctive attacking pattern of play has been instilled into the players. It is a process, of course, one that takes time. The improvements have been noticeable on every level; but player quality must eventually match the technical patterns they are asked to perform and as such top three or top four would represent an outstanding achievement, one which if successful is poised to launch an even stronger assault in the seasons to come.

Arsenal added Mesut Ozil to their ranks after the prediction was made and his initial impact was manna from heaven for a team with the most distinctive, fluent and structured patterns of play in modernized Premier League history. Nonetheless, Ozil aside, Arsenal are still constrained by a squad that relies heavily on the technical development of existing players and the coaching of raw talent. They were assigned fifth mainly because of this, but their outstanding start to the season should see them secure a top three placing at least, most likely at the expense of Manchester United, which will not be lost on Arsene Wenger or the players. There may be a small trophy niggle, but Arsenal are once again only one or two players away from a cup or a League Title. It really is only money, or the use of it, that prevents them from winning silverware.

Spurs sold a World Class player and brought in seven or eight new ones amid scenes reminiscent of A.S. Bari in 1991, of which David Platt was a part. The fusion of a whole new team almost never ends well, however, and Spurs have a major task on their hands to register any kind of dressing room solidity, team mentality and cohesive patterns of play. Some highly talented players should enable them to discomfort anyone on their day, however.

Everton continue to perform to an extremely high level, without having the squad depth or residual class in numbers to challenge for a top four position in a League this deep. The acquisition of Lukaku on loan is a bonus for a side lacking in attacking talent, but he was released on loan for a reason by Chelsea: he can score goals and has excellent physicality but his overall play and contribution outside the box is at the moment nowhere near ready for a top Premier League club. Martinez is working supremely well with the squad he was left.

Revised Guess:
City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs, Everton.

JLT (Jewson) Novices Chase 2014: Preliminary Thoughts

This race has little historicity. It is therefore one that requires a great deal of caution. As a race for novices with an intermediate distance, in some cases it can be difficult to assess the physicality, mentality and stage of progression of the runners. Nonetheless, as a Grade One event at the Festival we are looking for a potentially elite horse with an even distribution of energy, a purposeful preparation and a touch of residual class. In no particular order at this stage:

Oscar Whisky's physicality has already been discussed here, in relation to the physical characteristics needed for a World Hurdle. It is similar in some ways to that of Cue Card, but not the same. As a hurdler, he was high class. His Cheltenham Festival record is admirable, but there are no wins because none of his four attempts were over his specialist distance of 20f, the trip at which he won two Aintree Hurdles. Fourth in a Supreme Novices Hurdle, third in a Champion Hurdle, fifth in a World Hurdle, then pulled up in a World Hurdle. Never a three-mile stayer, his chasing mission has begun two seasons too late but his target race is over the correct distance for his physical attributes. 

They are: a high level elite class gallop and an On/Behind bridle ratio that spikes to maximum effect in the middle, but with a gun to his head asking for either raw speed/acceleration or stamina/grind the returns diminish significantly at the top level. His mentality has always been excellent. This is quite a heady mix when sent into a novice sphere against horses with more workmanlike profiles. He has run all three times over fences at Cheltenham, something his trainer has long been reluctant to do with his best novice chasers. Sprinter Sacre and Finian's Rainbow did not visit Cheltenham over fences until their Arkle Chase runs; Grandouet has been set a similar path. Then again with Oscar Whisky his trainer had very little to learn about him, having raced for four seasons over hurdles at all distances and on all ground. His chase runs have revealed little, other than his prospective opponents for this race have had little trouble getting competitive with him. From the front or with a lead, Oscar Whisky races in the same way with his mentality ensuring a fullness of effort. He was beaten by Taquin Du Seuil, then he beat Taquin Du Seuil on a desperate weather day with five fences omitted, and in between he mastered Wonderful Charm by half a length making all. In each case, significantly, Oscar Whisky was allowed or was able to distribute his energy evenly and efficiently, and as a result his performances were in the optimal range. One of the difficult things about Oscar Whisky over fences is understanding what he actually needs, but it is questionable as to whether a big field and goodish ground at a strong Festival pace is ideal. It could just be that his ideal conditions are those that very nearly seen him record a hattrick from this first three attempts, namely small fields with only one main rival to battle and fend off/get past. 

But for that half length defeat to Oscar Whisky in December, Wonderful Charm would have racked up a four-timer. He is a potentially talented horse, although the reasons why, having not raced since October, he was sent into a World Hurdle field aged only five are best left to his trainer. He obviously summered well, starting his season in October (last year's winner started in September) and then going on to win the Rising Stars Novices Chase at Wincanton (won previously for the same stable by Silviniaco Conti) and the Grade Two Berkshire Novices Chase at Newbury. He then ran Oscar Whisky close at Cheltenham, so that there is the requisite ability of sorts present is not in doubt.

Ability is not enough. Having completed his four races in the first half of the season, his trainer has stated that he will not run again before the Festival, a gap of three months. Noble Prince (2011) ran in the Grade One Irish Arkle on January 23; Sir Des Champs (2012) ran in a Grade Two at Leopardstown on January 28; and like Noble Prince, Benefficient (2013) ran in the Irish Arkle on January 26. All were Irish-trained, and all had displayed a preference for stamina at some stage in terms of either race distance or run style. Wonderful Charm, too, has run between 20f-22f on each start this season. Highly rated by his stable, he may be a staying chaser in the making but at the moment he perhaps resembles in his run style what Oscar Whisky may have looked like if sent chasing a couple of season ago. Wonderful Charm's On/Behind bridle ratio is very much towards the former. He had a breathing operation after Ruby Walsh reported he didn't feel right in the World Hurdle and this season his performances have been characterised by keenness, travelling notably well on the bridle, and prior to meeting Oscar Whisky outclassing inferior rivals.

This was true at Wincanton where he clattered through the last two fences, ceding lengths to the leader. He was straightened up, gathered in, and responded by picking up again to surge forward and win. This led to post-race comments that suggested 21f was the minimum trip for him but the amount of energy he expends on the bridle does not suggest this at all, at least not for his novice season and the fact that he has not been asked to compete over three miles by his trainer perhaps affirms this view. He can race, for sure, as he proved against Oscar Whisky but in that race he seemed to display very similar physical attributes to his more illustrious rival. His energy distribution in that race seemed more even, more one-paced, probably because Oscar Whisky had the class to stretch him out of his comfort zone and make him race with different attributes. He responded to a more demanding test well but there has to be a concern that a lack of racing for such a long period of time allied to his natural keenness and a more sustained and fierce festival pace will break any finishing effort his bridle ratio can command at this stage in his career. Unlike Oscar Whisky he will still be maturing physically, as he looks to be slightly narrow-chested. Physical growth, a keenness to race, a bridle ratio suggesting most work is done 'on' it and a planned absence from the track may make his task rather difficult in March, for all that he appears to have a lot of natural ability.

Strength: The older Oscar Whisky (right) has more muscular reserves of strength than Wonderful Charm (left) but they were matched closely in ability terms earlier in the season.

In his novice hurdle season just gone, Taquin Du Seuil won a Grade Two by six lengths on heavy and then the Grade One Challow hurdle by nine lengths on heavy. From that three week period there seems to have sprung a myth that he "loves" or "needs" some real cut in the ground, which he almost certainly does not. Those Graded races were not very competitive and he was easily the best horse in each race, so when he then ran well for a long way but was ultimately well beaten in a fairly hot Neptune Novices Hurdle (won by The New One) on good to soft Festival ground it served to reinforce the general perception of his required ground conditions from the winter. He also made his chase debut on heavy ground at Ffos Las. Yet analytically the ground is not important for him. He does have a slightly peculiar knee lift but he had little problem out-speeding the "fast" Oscar Whisky on good ground at Cheltenham, where he also showed a tractable mentality to be unaffected by the slow-stop-start gallop early in the race. After the race his trainer revealed the Arkle Chase was still under consideration, owing to the speed he displayed at home and presumably by the way in which he bettered Oscar Whisky. True to their word, his next race was in the Grade One Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown over two miles, again on good ground. 

This was a no-nonsense fact-finding mission that ended in an 8L defeat and a confirmation that the Jewson is indeed the right race. He got the strong gallop that he most likely thrives upon but this race was notable for its unusual depth: Hinterland and Grandouet were two high class, fast, specialised two milers meeting each other for the second time. Taquin Du Seuil jumped the first two fences well, and was enjoying the early pace too much, pulling his way past Grandouet in third place before settling. The big test came after the first bend as the field started motoring down the back and towards the railway fences. He did well but finally he was bested by the ninth fence, pecking on landing and losing momentum. This brought closer the time he needed to race proper and rounding the final bend he had switched behind the bridle but it was noticeable how well he responded, closing to within three lengths of Hinterland and Grandouet as those two went for everything and scooted clear. Taquin Du Seuil stayed on well to the line, running a fine Jewson trial under the cover of a strong Arkle one. 

The Cheltenham re-match with Oscar Whisky, this time on soft ground, produced a similar outcome to their first battle, this time Oscar Whisky narrowly prevailing. But here it was back to a ponderous pace and a race with little intent until it got to the final stages, and it was noticeable how Taquin Du Seuil was ambling at some of his fences, in contradistinction to the helter skelter of Sandown. If we are to assess his optimal conditions then they are those which he has yet to face: 20f, goodish ground, strong gallop from start to finish - much what he can expect to face in March. He has has shown he can handle a variety of challenges and that he himself has more improvement to come, with 16f pace and 20f stamina, allied to tactical speed at the longer distance. A nice blend of physicality. Normal progression permitting, he looks a ready-made Jewson horse. 

Across the water, nearly all the talk has fallen on Felix Yonger and Champagne Fever. Discussion of the latter will feature in relation to the Arkle Chase as that is where his level of residual class would be best served. Not unlike his more talented stablemate, Felix Yonger has been subject to any amount of analytical distortion, with many media platforms suggesting he should run in the Arkle Chase, and, furthermore, that he should be the favourite for that contest. The details do not confirm this view, but they should also not take anything away from his own capabilities, which are clearly identifiable. (He is eight years of age, for those adhering to the Steps model of profiling.) 

The reason behind the distortion is an old and recurring one: "form". It is one of the most overused and poorly chosen words when discussing elite novice contests. Felix Yonger beat Defy Logic, then beat Trofolium; Defy Logic beat Champagne Fever and Trifolium was second; it follows, mutatis mutandis, that Felix Yonger should and Champagne Fever should not therefore run in the Arkle and given that Champagne Fever was favourite and still is favourite for the race that Felix Yonger should be favourite for the Arkle and Champagne Fever should run in the Jewson. What is his trainer, Willie Mullins, playing at?

That Felix Yonger may run in the Arkle is a possible scenario, of course, but it is unlikely and Felix Yonger's appeal in an Arkle would be limited. What can be seen quite clearly are the different targets of different horses in Ireland. Defy Logic is an Irish winter ground horse. He has talent but it is not of a kind that would see him fair well in a Cheltenham Arkle Chase. His trainer has made specific reference to "the softer the better" for his horse and that his win in the race contested by Champagne Fever was a main target - "delighted to win a Grade One with him" - as no doubt will be the Irish Arkle. In many ways he is reminiscent of the Noel Meade trained Realt Dubh, who had a similarly targeted campaign with an Irish Arkle victory. That horse actually ran with great credit in The Arkle, finishing around 9L third to Captain Chris and Finian's Rainbow. He won again in Punchestown but didn't win another race, his lack of residual class laid bare in open company. Against Felix Yonger, Defy Logic was encountering the quickest ground in his career to date, attempting to make all at a fast pace as usual, only to be picked up late in the contest. What is obvious when watching that race is how Defy Logic was beaten quite early, headed two out from where he was ridden and rousted and visibly tired into a mistake at the last fence. That was not the case against Champagne Fever; they were very different runs owing to different physical stages of his season. Against Felix Yonger he was being geared towards his first Winter target and ran accordingly.

Trifolium's breathing problems have been well documented and this was another opponent that went off fast from the front and was unable to sustain his effort, weakening sharply as a tired horse jumping the last fence. When Champagne Fever made a mistake two from home in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown, Defy Logic was then presented the race with Trifolium, who had been well behind until staying on when his race was over, finishing second. A "perfect form storm" was duly created, but its worth as a reliable analytical tool is low.

Interestingly, the racecourse evidence tells a different story. Not least because just as Felix Yonger was becoming the latest Arkle fashion accessory, he got beat, at Limerick, by his more limited stablemate The Paparrazi Kid. That was over 19f. But instead of asking why he got beaten and what could be learned of his physicality in defeat, rather than victory, the "didn't stay" line was put through the run by those keen to get four steps ahead of his trainer. On the contrary, what can be seen from his Limerick defeat confirms the overall impression of his two victories that he would prefer more of a stamina test on good ground. Ruby Walsh reported how he was close to being taken off his feet by Trifolium. If that is so, then Champagne Fever (and Defy Logic) would have had Felix Yonger in a great deal of trouble had he tried to chase them in their Grade One race, and with no prisoners taken in an Arkle, Hinterland and Grandouet have already shown the trouble a 20f horse can get into against them. At Limerick Felix Yonger was able to move more within his comfort zone and in so doing was happy to 'flick' across the surface with his right front leg, suggesting good ground would be more than welcome (his best run over hurdles was his 7L second to Simonsig in the Neptune Novices Hurdle at the Festival on good ground). Having moved through the race okay, if a little wide, his best moments came when racing behind the bridle as a couple of moderate jumps left him with a number of lengths to find on the eventual winner, which he set about hunting down with relish, unsuccessfully, suggesting that there is more to come over slightly further distances. The overriding impression is that Felix Yonger is an eight year old coming into a competitive novice chase arena after a year off the track. He has probably surprised his handlers a little with his exuberance as much as with his early season ability, but Limerick perhaps hinted at a plateau and the task ahead is to condition him for a Jewson Novices Chase that will test his ability to both hang onto a fast pace and see the race out at the other end.

In terms of raw ability there may not be too much between these key four runners, suggesting even more reason to pay attention to specific aspects of their physicality and mentality in the coming weeks.

King George VI Chase 2013: Review (plus Lexus Chase 2013)

The Preview for this race captured the significant aspects of the contest. The long-time favourite and eventual runner up Cue Card was beaten, as highlighted, by:

• Not being able to control the pace of the race, by not being allowed to stop-start the gallop. He was therefore denied a fundamental aspect of his physicality: the need to "fill up" in order to continue racing within his comfort zone;

• His own peculiar On/Behind bridle ratio. As pointed to specifically, Cue Card either wins comfortably through sheer class or is "swept aside" because, once challenged, it means he is forced to switch behind the bridle where his ability is dramatically minimised. Here he faced an elite opponent able to go his gallop, but also able to race with power behind the bridle, something Cue Card lacks;

• The ground, but only possibly. As a top class elite horse Cue Card handles any ground, but a good ground King George may just have helped him "yo-yo" his pursuers in a way that he was simply unable to do here, with Silviniaco Conti able to challenge him throughout, even after a mistake six out. But equally there would still have come a point when Cue Card's comfort zone petrol hit Empty, and the outcome of that would have been the same, perhaps just closer to the finishing line. 

• And, of course, a better staying three mile chaser with a more suitable physicality.

Some of the general discussion after the race mentioned how it was "strange" that Cue Card should "just apparently empty" between two out and the last. But it is only "strange" if there is a failure to identify beforehand the specific characteristics a top class horse is likely to exhibit. In the Preview the key question was posed as:

This leads us in a way to Cue Card's conundrum. What is the ratio of the amount of energy and class he expends on the bridle (racing comfortably) to that expended when challenged?

It received a quite specific answer during the race. His On/Behind bridle ratio was illuminated "down the stretch". Joe Tizzard said: 

"I think Paul [Nicholls] and Noel [Fehily] had a good game-plan," he commented. "They sat close, virtually touching me all the way, so I was never able, at any stage, to get in front and fill him up. I was starting to come under a bit of pressure [going to the second-last fence], but I thought I had enough to keep me going. But generally it was a good run and the best horse on the day won."

Here Tizzard is making specific reference to the tactics employed in Cue Card's Ryanair Chase and Betfair Chase victories, repeatedly slowing the pace in front and filling up with oxygen then going on again. He highlights the point at which Cue Card was required to switch behind the bridle, coming under pressure towards the second last, so after that jump he would need to switch fully and start to race and grind and use different qualities. But his energy distribution at this stage was shot through. The vast majority of Cue Card's racing is done within his own comfort zone and at a level few can cope with. But at elite level one or two horses (other than Sprinter Sacre) are able to gallop with him and in staying races those horses have a different On/Behind bridle ratio - they can race effectively and with power off the bridle, displaying a more even curve of energy distribution, and Silviniaco Conti was one of those horses. 

Notably, the jockey as well as opinion in general saw the problem of defeat as a matter of ground, or of ground and track, or of ground, track and tactics. All these are almost useless as indicators of race performance in this case. What was important was Cue Card's physicality. It was a terrific run, for sure; and the best staying horse won, for sure; but performance analysis suggests a Gold Cup run would be suicide. He is probably near unbeatable under the conditions of a Ryanair Chase, however. 

The winner, Silviniaco Conti, confirmed the abundant promise of a Gold Cup performance curtailed by falling three from home. All being well, he will now get another chance to test himself against the reigning champion, who was just behind him when he departed that contest. 

Here, at Kempton, he was excellent. The mistake six out, where he briefly lost close touch with Cue Card, should just have reminded him enough of the sharp mentality he will need to display at Cheltenham but that apart he matched Cue Card's level of residual class and elite pace gallop, jumped with prowess and powered on to the finishing line in a way his main rival could not. Rounding the final bend his reins were given a shake, his neck a slap, asking him to begin to switch behind the bridle and when Joe Tizzard looked round anxiously as his horse emptied after two out, Noel Fehily knew he had won. He did not have time to think upon it because in an instant he swept aside his rival; the hard work had already been done. He had been looked after in the Betfair Chase, racing wide and without razor sharp fitness, but even so he showcased his top class elite characteristics in defeat.

"The concern for Sil Conti and probably the reason he was not taken to Kempton for the King George last season is the amount of energy he will be required to use to track the kind of pace that unfolds in a King George and how this impacts upon his ability to then stay on."

Last season this kind of Preview comment may have carried more weight, but in this contest the winner made it look errant and overly worrisome. In tracking an outstanding speed horse, he then had the iron will and energy distribution curve to maintain his effort to victory, confirming himself an outstanding staying chaser who, all things being equal, is capable of giving Bobs Worth a war. 

As it transpired, Al Ferof would have needed extraordinary levels of residual class to win this contest, making the award of slight win-preference to him over his stablemate a touch fanciful. Tracking a fiercely competitive elite gallop pace constructed by two hard-fit horses in peak physical condition was always going to be tricky given his own preparation, should that scenario emerge, and emerge it did. A more sedate or uneven gallop would have helped him. He went notably left at two or three fences, enough for this jockey to have to grab the reins and guide him back to where he wanted him but in general he went through the race as the third best horse, but adrift.

When the winner made a slight error six out he jumped well to close up the gap in third place. When the front two played their cards approaching the final bend the rest of the field was well beaten but Al Ferof's residual class kept him galloping and he stayed on resolutely to cross the line some 14L behind the impressive winner, a total of about four seconds. In terms of challenging for the win in this race, it can be said that Al Ferof failed his first 'acid test'. Yet this race will have broken him down physically in such a way as to instil strength into his frame. It was his second start following a year off the track and with more training and another race in his legs, it is entirely possible he can bridge some of that four second gap to his stablemate under the conditions of a Gold Cup. Should connections wish to wait, they can switch to the Ryanair Chase or skip the Festival altogether. A lot hinges on the specifics of his physicality following this contest and the extent to which he can be trained with the rigour required, but that it was a run full of promise is not in doubt. 

Mount Benbulben can be analysed in the context of other races. He ran well overall in fourth, 2L behind Al Ferof, and will have good claims in the Irish Hennessy.

Dynaste finished fifth but some 30L further back and was never in the race. He was reportedly sore following this race.

Long Run's glorious career at the top level is now over, he was a fantastic racehorse, winner of a Gold Cup and two King George VI Chases, chasing home the legendary Kauto Star in another. 

Riverside Theatre, Champion Court and Menorah were always likely to be outclassed in this contest.

Lexus Chase 2013

In contrast to the King George, the Lexus lacked any kind of elite pace gallop for most of the race resulting in all the runners running most of the race well within their comfort zones. There was rarely more than six lengths covering the field the whole way, and four from home four lengths covered first to last. 

That the highly exposed ex-French veteran Rubi Ball led the field for most of the way, and that he was accompanied by the elite-but-exposed First Lieutenant who challenged him for the lead going over the last fence, ultimately meant this was a race that the reigning Gold Cup holder, Bobs Worth, had to win. With the field extremely compact for most of the way, the runners had gradually starting rolling with more intensity from about five out so that after jumping two out they were all behind the bridle and racing proper. It was still a three mile contest, still soft ground, but if anything the nature of the race now asked who could race behind the bridle with the greatest power and class. What would otherwise have been a fairly normal race result was given its stamp by the performance of the winner, who would have won further the more distance was added after the line. Prominent throughout, rolling proper from two out, rounding the final bend Bobs Worth engaged the 'surge' mode behind the bridle that seemingly channels his energy to his legs and, as at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup, he powered to the front appearing to get stronger and more dynamic the closer the line came into view. It was a reminder once again of why he is so well suited to the peculiar configuration of Cheltenham but when fit and firing he should really be suited to almost any racecourse. 

One 'round-up' saw a markedly different race whereby "The Nicky Henderson horse quickened up after the last to wear down the game First Lieutenant". So at the same time Bobs Worth was accelerating rapidly (having raced behind the bridle for some time) yet in the next breath wearing down an opponent with stamina (having used up nearly all his energy by quickening/accelerating). None of this is accurate in any way. As alluded to elsewhere, the use of traditional racing language can often be hugely unsatisfactory. 

Bobs Worth, the winner of the Lexus, will clash once more with Silviniaco Conti, winner of the King George, as the winner of the Gold Cup tackles the horse what would have asked him the most questions from that Gold Cup. Elite racing often has a regularity, a structure, that in some cases is as discernible before the season starts as it is during the season itself. Both horses have to make the race, of course, and should one or both not do so the landscape would shift once again. 

Of the vanquished, First Lieutenant ran well once again in defeat, his twelfth in thirteen starts over the last two years. Sir Des Champs lacked any kind of tactical pace in fourth and the pair will likely clash with Mount Benbulben in the Irish Hennessy. Lyreen Legend ran well in fifth, and it is still surprising to see Unioniste campaigned in races beyond his capabilities at such a young age.