Ryanair Chase 2014 - Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference

Winter is a season of recovery and preparation
- Paul Theroux

Which may describe two of the leading contenders for this contest. As does something else, because nothing describes the 2008-2013 Grade One Ryanair Chase more simply than the fact that all bar one of the last six winners (with Albertas Run counted twice) ran in the King George VI Chase in the same season and Riverside Theatre was second in the race in the season before his win. The structural reasoning behind this preparatory golden pathway can be left aside here; but that we are looking for a top class horse to emerge as the winner is - until the evidence presents itself otherwise - not in doubt. 

First Lieutenant ran with great credit in this race last year. He has become a metronome for Grade One races but, Aintree last season apart, he has never really threatened the top ranks often enough. He has been analysed in detail elsewhere and is talented but on any ground over any trip his energy distribution is too even and lacking in power behind the bridle. If others falter he can go close, however.

Benefficient showed he had progressed into open company elite status when backing up his Irish Arkle and Jewson Novices Chase wins from last season with victory in the Grade One Dial-A-Bet Chase (17f, Soft) at Leopardstown. Last season he ran five times prior to beating Dynaste at Cheltenham (20f, GS) whereas this season he has run only twice (bar a seemingly random flat run in September). His trainer admitted to working him too hard prior to his run over three miles at Wetherby, where in the lead-up to the race he had worked Benefficient with the all-or-nothing input of Flemenstar. The strenuous workout apparently hollowed the Beneficial chestnut. Yet the mental and physical resolution that was the hallmark of his Jewson Novices Chase win emerged once again at Leopardstown: recovery and preparation combined to deliver an effort that made his running after the last fence stronger than his rivals. 

The question mark for Benefficient is residual class. With his Charlie Hall Chase excursion finishing with a tailed off effort his only run with intent this season was his win over two miles. The dominance of King George runners in this race shows the extent to which stamina is a pre-requisite under normal conditions - it is possible that this was the reason for starting in the three mile Charlie Hall Chase but the plan went awry. His beating of Dynaste at the Festival is covered in more detail below, but there were few stamina concerns evident given that he was sent into a positive front-running gallop from the off. He stayed there until brushing through the top of three out at which point Dynaste, then alongside him, flew the fence and the differing physical momentum of the two horses at that point separated them by a few lengths as they made their descent (with Captain Conan jumping in between them). Benefficient's two mile pace gallop had been jolted slightly but it was nonetheless impressive how, gathered in and allowed to fill up down the hill, he was able to command a transfer of energy behind the bridle to such an extent that he could surge to the head of the field once more after jumping the last impressively. He was aided in that quest, without doubt, by the fact that Captain Conan was emptying and that Dynaste was feeling the strain of his own pace injection three out, compounded by a preparation for the race that had not been physically straightforward. Dynaste tired notably close home, for example. 

Energy Delivery Systems: Captain Conan (left) tired dramatically into fifth; Dynaste (middle) tired notably close home but held second; Benefficient had experienced a more robust season of the three and his physicality had been hardened as a result

Benefficient is therefore a strong, tactically versatile horse that tries extremely hard on any kind of ground. He can be asked to lead, race prominently or in smaller fields be held off the pace a little. He is capable of using his energy with great efficiency. So for him it depends on the extent to which a Grade One Festival gallop over a furlong further than the Jewson Novices version affects the class of performance delivery against horses that have shown themselves adept at Grade One level over that distance or further. In that sense for a horse that thrived on racing in his novice season it is perhaps a slight concern that he has not stood more racing this season. Whether that inaction compromises his effort remains to be seen.

On first glance Al Ferof's career has stalled. That is obviously true to a point at the time of writing but the interesting question is to what extent has his season been mapped out that way. His ebullient owner had dreamed of Gold Cups after his Supreme Novices Hurdle win in the hottest renewal of recent times. His Paddy Power Handicap Chase win began to align him with the Imperial Commander pathway and - delayed by a tendon injury - that initial point has now been reached. Imperial Commander went from winning the same handicap, to a no-show performance in the King George owing to a physical conformation issue that hindered right-handed participation, to winning the Ryanair Chase on his next start (and later on the Gold Cup itself). Al Ferof's progression was halted just prior to the King George of 2012, but he made the 2013 version to run a fifteen lengths third to Silviniaco Conti (winner) and Cue Card (second), but never really looked comfortable on his second start back from absence on tacky, soft ground.

As highlighted at the start, running in the King George is significant because it is an indicator of the kinds of residual class and stamina levels required to win what is a demanding Grade One Chase at the Festival (Imperial Commander himself was beaten 72L in the race prior to his Ryanair Chase win; Albertas Run by 69L prior to his first win). In that sense and in its own right, Al Ferof's run was pleasing enough especially in light of the fact that the two in front of him were top class animals. What was not so pleasing was the extent to which he appeared to fold into his shell on his next start at Newbury in the Denman Chase (24f, Heavy), beaten twenty-five lengths by the mud-loving Harry Topper having been in close touch to that horse rounding the final turn, albeit still with a long way to go in the race. Analysing the run is a question of physicality, training programmes and trainer intention. On the surface the run was disappointing: he had been expected to win or at least improve upon his Kempton run but he faded in the manner of a horse with a physical or stamina issue. However, it could also have been the case that he was still fatigued from his King George exertions and/or that again the very deep ground was not to his liking on the day; and it is possible that he was sent to the race purely in preparatory terms - the race is one that his trainer has often used for horses he is preparing for the Festival and the instructions may have been to race for as long as possible before easing off with the expectation that he would tire, leaving over four weeks to train the horse into peak physical condition for March. 

Vain Pursuit: But was Al Ferof expected to run any differently in a race so close to his seasonal target

There are many unknowns: the weight of the horse pre- and post-race; the extent to which he had been prepared at home for a race that is not a target race for top horses; what was revealed privately after the race to connections by the jockey and so on. What we do know is that his trainer has long thought the Ryanair Chase as the most suitable target for his horse. His owner and former jockey repeated the Gold Cup mantra prior to Newbury, but Paul Nicholls always had Silviniaco Conti for the King George-Gold Cup route. Given that Al Ferof won a Supreme over two miles and travelled smoothly and easily through a Paddy Power Gold Cup over 20.5f, allied to time off the track and two defeats over three miles, this race offers the grey the chance to exhibit his potential once again where better ground would be a big help. His overall profile remains in-keeping with Ryanair Chase winners: Supreme winner, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, King George third; and he is with a trainer adept at bringing talented horses back to their peak or somewhere near it. It remains a big task but one well within the realms of possibility.

Recovery and preparation will also hold the key to the chances of DYNASTE. From the outset it is worth noting that his trainer has quite a poor record in Graded races at the Festival, something he will be hopeful of improving upon with his talented grey. To do so he will need to have had a smooth pathway to the Festival with his horse following Dynaste's recovery from pulled muscles sustained in the King George VI Chase as a result of which he finished fifth, beaten 47L. Had he just had an off day or problems with the ground the run would have been a positive - the timing of the race some eleven weeks before the Festival is ideal for keeping a horse ticking over through the winter months in preparation for March; but picking up a physical issue is not ideal. That said Dynaste runs well fresh; with this in mind it can be seen how his overall level of physicality will determine the strength of his effort in this race. 

Over hurdles Dynaste tangled three times with Big Buck's for a combined defeat of seventy-two lengths, sufficiently inferior enough to indicate that he would make a better chaser and that three miles would likely be too far for him. He was swiftly transferred to fences thereafter where he won three in a row prior to an interrupted pathway to the Jewson Novices Chase. His wins included a Grade One Feltham Novices Chase over three miles on heavy ground but the description is misleading: two fences were omitted and such was the moderate class level of his opponents that the race was run at a crawl early on and Dynaste won the race easily with a surge of tactical pace jumping four out. 

A similar pattern emerged in the Jewson Novices Chase. He tracked Benefficient in third or four place before moving alongside on the run to three out at which point he was moving so well that he outjumped his rival and held the race advantage going downhill to the final turn. It was a fairly bold move although whether it was determined by the jockey or the horse himself is hard to say. Dynaste had travelled well and injected decisive raw pace into each of his previous three chase runs. The difference here was that he was meeting a top novice with hardened race conditioning and a resilient mentality. Although capable of staying further than 20f (as he would later prove in the Betfair Chase) Dynaste began to physically tire from his own lack of race fitness and conditioning and approaching the last Benefficient had transferred his energy behind the bridle to continue galloping with power, moving past his rivals to win comfortably, his jockey celebrating well before the finishing line. 

Jolt: Benefficient ploughs his legs through the top of the third last fence, halting his momentum briefly; Dynaste flies the obstacle, moving strongly within his comfort zone at the time

Leader: the descent has confirmed the difference in momentum at the third last fence; Captain Conan advances also; gathered together and "filled up" running downhill, Benefficient now has energy to transfer behind the bridle

Left Leg In (image zoom): The difference in energy distribution from the third last to here, the final fence, sees a turnaround in fortunes; Dynaste and even more so Captain Conan are left with diminishing reserves of energy. Benefficient is more powerful behind the bridle

Fatigue: Captain Conan is fading into fifth; Dynaste has almost been caught by horses from a long way off the pace; Benfficient is dominant

The front two produced impressive performances in different ways and it is likely that this race brought Dynaste to a physical peak at Aintree next time out, where again he was visually impressive this time over three miles on good ground. His main opponent (Third Intention) was one he had already outclassed in the Feltham Novices Chase and is a non-stayer to date over three miles (W0 L5). 

Three miles would remain Dynaste's distance assignment for his first season in open company, where he ran the best race of his career at Haydock in a high class renewal of the Grade One Betfair Chase. This race would see the association between Cue Card and the adjective "stayer" grow closer, but the analytics of the race confirm that it was a masterclass in tactical pace control from the front, rather than a performance that relied in any meaningful way on stamina or, more accurately, sustained racing energy and power from behind the bridle. Cue Card was still a highly impressive winner, backing up his win with a creditable second in the King George. This provides the context for assessing Dynaste's effort in chasing Cue Card home at Haydock, where he gradually and continually crept closer and closer to the top class front-runner without in the end being able to land a telling blow from behind the bridle. The future King George winner, Silviniaco Conti, was just behind him although admittedly his trainer was using the contest as a prep race for his staying star. Dynaste's energy distribution was incredibly even but it was too even - the class of opponent and energy-sapping distance stretched out Dynaste's On/Behind bridle ratio into a straight line, whereas before there were spikes of decisive energy bursts. 

Just Too Far: Dynaste (left) splits two horses of the highest class in the Grade One Betfair Chase. If operating with maximum physicality he will be a potent threat in March

Over a shorter distance, on better ground, against slightly less imposing elite horses, Dynaste should prove capable of delivering a high class Grade One performance. As the Jewson Novices Chase showed he will need to be operating at maximum levels of physicality to do so. His trainer has sometimes struggled to prepare his horses in this respect with regard to the Festival and top class races; it is therefore a test for him as much as it is for Dynaste.

Supreme Novices Hurdle 2014 - Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference

Everything has been said before, but since nobody listens we have to keep going back and beginning all over again 

- André Gide

Roar.

Quite often during a season some things make plain little sense and the campaign and demands assigned to The Liquidator echo back through the winter months. The Liquidator's fourth to Briar Hill in the Cheltenham Bumper suggested many possible things but he didn't travel through the race under the cover of a two miler, lacking tactical gallop pace at crucial points but staying on resolutely. Of course, we are not to know his level of maturity or stage of physicality at that point and his opening stroll around Carlisle this season revealed little.

His next start was "interesting", at Cheltenham on good ground in a Supreme Novices titled trial race (17f), but the analytics of the performance revealed any number of concerns. As a race it was a non-event with none of his three opponents proving capable or interested in racing him on the day. It emerged after that they had wanted "to take the sting out of Sea Lord's finish" but that horse was struggling from a long way out, perhaps with a physical problem (hasn't raced since). The Liquidator therefore set off in front and at a good pace, slightly keen early on but well enough settled with proficient jumping. Interestingly, he was going so unnecessarily fast having run downhill to two out that although jumping the hurdle well enough he almost pecked significantly on landing, but did well to maintain his balance and pick up his gallop. Nonetheless, this was not a performance that allowed for an even distribution of energy; nor was it the run of a "speedy" two miler in a stalking-the-pace mode. Approaching and around the final bend his jockey began shaking his reins repeatedly with a slap to the neck each time: asking for more, almost like a test. On straightening to aim at the hill he was given a crack of the whip - all this despite being well clear with the race won having already gone unnecessarily quick - and with the horse appearing to tire from his earlier running, was ridden strongly out towards the line.

Afterwards his trainer admitted that it was "not the ideal way to ride him today" referring to his own choice of tactics with his jockey pointing to winning the Punchestown Champion Bumper as an indication of stamina requirements. Overall, this run was a clear exercise in learning more about the horse's On/Behind bridle ratio and his energy distribution capabilities. When the stamina sapping Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was switched to the sharper, speedier Kempton Park track David Pipe was much less keen to run in the race, but still did so.

Lean and Keen: The Liquidator's 'barrel' or girth appears slight towards the back end or flank hind

The Liquidator was disappointing, beaten a long way out. As at Cheltenham he seemed to naturally tire a long way out but this time the competition was much stronger and they glided past him easily. His energy distribution is a major concern and could be symptomatic of a physical/breathing problem. His lean back-end is also a worry and he would do well to be afforded more time to mature and strengthen.

Wicklow Brave did not run over hurdles until the beginning of this year after running five times in under six months in Bumper races. He was given a three month break at the end of last year and presumably the plan was always to allow him to contest a couple of moderate hurdle races before taking in the Festival. He is clearly talented as, his debut aside, but for a narrow reverse in a twenty-three runner Bumper in May he would be unbeaten. He has the ability to travel through moderate races comfortably and his superiority in his races to date has arisen from the strong work he performs during the "on" aspect of his bridle ratio. That said, he was made to work hard for his victory on more than one Bumper occasion and has shown that he can transfer energy behind the bridle in sufficient amounts to maintain his galloping advantage over his pursuers.

On debut he drew away from the field effortlessly from well within his comfort zone, a performance that can be seen on almost any racecourse throughout the season. His most recent start was a better race, contested by two Gigginstown Stud representatives and one of those, Lieutenant Colonel, had chased home Vautour in a thirty-runner maiden hurdle prior to winning himself by fourteen lengths next time. On heavy ground Wicklow Brave showed a willing mentality but one that lacked a little professionalism as in closing the ground on his two main rivals from third place he rattled the top of the second last and then skewed his back end as he bundled through the last, before picking up and drawing away without much effort. An excellent and more detailed review of that performance and his other runs can be found here. The concerns here relate to his energy distribution curve. He would not be the first high-profile two-mile novice hurdler to fight for his head and jump naively at times but seldom do such horses win Supreme Novice Hurdles. The question is whether he sheds unnecessary energy through the race and, if not, whether his ability is then sufficient to take him deep into the race. Overall, the fact that he has not been asked to contest a Graded race during his preparation may hint at some of the mental and professional fragility at this early stage. Wicklow Brave has cruise-and-stalk momentum which will be suited to better ground and there is nothing wrong at all with an under-the-radar, gentle approach to this race but the suspicion remains that he will lack the levels of concentration needed to hurdle efficiently as he copes with a more frantic gallop at a much higher level.

Concentrate: Wicklow Brave bends down the last hurdle at Punchestown. Mistakes happen but the mentality must be mature enough to overcome them during a Festival level gallop

In contrast to Wicklow Brave, Josses Hill was assigned a Grade One contest on only his second start. Before then he had run twice in Bumpers: the first when second and slammed 22L by Faugheen (16f, Y); the second when comfortably winning (16f, G/S). Josses Hill is already a six year old and his frame has acquired the physical stamp of a chaser, so the question is to what extent is that frame being filled by muscular, physical strength and how much is being asked of him by connections this season. Certainly his trainer had no reservations about running him in a 22-runner field at Newbury in soft ground on debut in December. This was a fairly robust physical assignment and the inference seems to be that connections wanted as full an experience as possible, with the enduring feeling that they wanted to mould their horse to the conditions of a big two mile event. Josses Hill went through the race in sixth place, before gradually improving as the leaders stretched the pace three from the finish down the home straight. He got a slap on the neck after jumping three out then he jumped two out too big, which earned him another slap on the neck and a crack of the whip, all the time giving the impression that he just needed that bit more time to organise himself and start rolling more powerfully. Held together by his jockey, that gathering momentum moved him into joint leader going over the last and although given a faint tap of the whip on the run-in it was his ability and power that were finally taking him three lengths clear of his rivals, offering more as the finishing line drew closer. This was quite impressive given the conditions.

His next assignment was to be in a Grade One, with stamina over two miles seemingly preferred. His stablemate, Royal Boy, had been selected to be the 20f horse of the two but with unpleasantly deep conditions at Warwick for his intended race a drop in distance to this race was advanced once it had been rearranged. The two would fight out a sustained, duelling finish not unlike that between My Tent Or Yours and The New One at Kempton. With this performance, Josses Hill confirmed several things: he has galloping power to hold a position in a top race but that position may not be as close as tracking but at best close up; he does not shed any notable energy as he does not pull and is not keen; he has a professional mentality; and his optimal energy distribution range is quite central as he does not have blistering pace but nor has he abundant stamina. As they went over two out Royal Boy and Josses Hill were as one. On the approach to the last McCoy on Royal Boy angled his whip out and gave his mount a couple of cracks whereas Geraghty on Josses Hill was content to hold his horse together, encouraged only by a brief shake of the reins. They both appeared to have plenty of energy left as they cleared the last hurdle comfortably. As indicated by the motion of their jockeys, Royal Boy had been the first to begin the process of transferring his energy behind the bridle and lost only a stride in so doing. Josses Hill touched down over the last hurdle first, just, and marginally nosed in front as his jockey went for the whip: he did not falter or flinch and galloped straight and true, but Royal Boy's power was now behind the bridle to a greater extent and with that he got back to his rival and went beyond him.

Josses Hill is a physically strong, impressive galloper - in many ways he is the kind of Supreme Novices horse not normally associated with his trainer. Depending on how the race unfolds, he may lose his position momentarily to a raw injection of pace but a key tactical pace change-up of that nature is unlikely to affect him greatly and if given the time he will start rolling towards the line with ominous intent. If he can hold his position, or if there is a pace burn-up on the front end, he should be well situated to take full advantage, although his bigger jumps over his hurdles will expend precious energy if they occur. He is talented but a little raw.

Irving is learning. At Taunton on debut (17f, Good) he was young and wild and free, a sure sign of mental inexperience. Following a long conversation with his jockey he did eventually relent and went through the remaining race transitions smoothly and effortlessly. At Ascot next time (16f, GS) he appeared to have been learning well as in the early stages of the race he was almost sleepy in comparison, despite a chronically slow gallop where he could have been forgiven for being quite upset with it all. As it was he pinged a hurdle near halfway and wanted to take off, quickly accepting his jockey's instructions not to do so and, when the race turned into a brief dash around the final bend, he took the race into his care as soon as two out and extended away.

Irving returned to Ascot (16f, Soft) for the Grade Two Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle. Here the pace was more normal, at least in terms of a six-runner Graded race, and was dictated by Splash of Ginge all the way to two from home albeit with his jockey knowing that he would be swamped by speedier types - his own horse needing a much more proactive end-to-end gallop. Irving settled professionally. This is important to note, from the head-swinging inexperienced appearance at Taunton to a brief show of impatience at Ascot to Ascot again and immediately settling into a racing rhythm. It may be that the really soft ground dulled his desire to expend himself but mentally the penny had dropped. He was fifth of the six runners most of the way and running comfortably when a faller three out and some movement on his outside left him last of the five runners having not lost any ground - three lengths covered first to last and rounding the final bend.

Where Do I Go Now? (Back, middle): Irving's even energy distribution through the race allowed him to execute his race transitions easily at Ascot

As the runners fanned out into the straight, Nick Schofield was content to let his horse take him over the second last still at the rear. As the smooth travelling Prince Siegfried edged in front of Irving and towards the centre, Irving was asked to switch to the outside and immediately begin racing, responding quickly to make up the length deficit and edge in front of his rival approaching the last where he was in front as Prince Siegfried fell. It was an example of a fairly rapid burst of energy from within the comfort zone of his bridle ratio - or that much looser term, speed. Ridden and pushed out he completed his race well.

Although it can be suggested that his first three wins of the season were moderate affairs and he has simply done what has been asked of him, in so doing he appeared to eradicate any analytical doubts that may have come his way. He has a distinctive On/Behind bridle ratio that relies on the former winning him the race which can be contrasted to the pair of Josses Hill and Vautour, who are more evenly paced gallopers. The smaller the field, the better the ground, the more sedate the pace - so then would Irving become an even more menacing force, providing he continued the mental progression witnessed in his first three starts here.

In the Dovecote he gave notice of that further progression. He won with authority and not a moments worry. That said, this race in many ways echoed the previous three: moderate opponents, small fields and running right-handed. Potential concerns emerged too; many would refer to the victory as a "really smooth display" as he approached the winning line, but standing back a little it was fluency that was lacking somewhat. He again settled instantly so it would be a surprise were he to show any keenness at Cheltenham but his early jumps were less than smooth, he was staccato at the first, second and fourth, having glided over the third. Here we can acknowledge the presence of usually insignificant micro-analysis but there is a wider point. Irving shattered the top of the second last hurdle with force and, without a bother, carried on regardless. But this allied to his earlier less-than-fluent jumps creates the image of a horse that is under no pressure and well within his comfort zone at all times but yet cannot quite seem to command his hurdles in his own mind, something that could cost him precious time and rhythm should there be an opponent primed to make him pay for any indiscretions. The scenarios that see him win are simple to imagine, however.

Angled: At the last hurdle, under no pressure, Irving's body is angling downwards, conveying a slight lack of technical command

VAUTOUR offers the potential for a rare Festival agreement: open expectation with racecourse performance. He debuted in a thirty-runner maiden hurdle at Navan in early December and won easily but his next race offered a sterner test, not least because in the interim period between the two races it had become clear that he had earned the "most exciting" tag from his powerful trainer and owner. That kind of hierarchical elevation occurs at all stables of course and at any one time it is only significant when expectation is confirmed by performance and Festival target race suitability. Annie Power, for example, has not confirmed the latter during her season.

In the Grade Two Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle Vautour provided a performance replete with analytical strength yet not uncommonly the general reaction was one of mild disappointment. This is understandable: it is easier (whether fruitfully or not) to invest in or align oneself behind a horse that has won cosily, visually impressively, or by half the track and so on. But as always defeats and races where things are difficult often reveal far more and this was a case in point, Vautour being sent off at one to four, only to be eyeballed on the run-in and have to race with power to claim the win. The race cannot be understood without reference to the individual physicality and stage of training of each horse. The runner-up, Western Boy, had already run three times that season: twice in Bumpers and in a seventeen runner soft ground maiden hurdle, so he had six miles of racing in his legs, allied to the training and conditioning involved therein. As with the same trainer's Morning Assembly, for Western Boy "it is not all about this year" with the trainer noting that "he is a light-framed horse" and "fingers crossed he stays sound", a mood that hints at an underlying fragile physicality. But that he is thought very well of is not in doubt and in the race he tracked Vautour effectively, jumping the last slightly better than his rival and finding a brief surge of energy to get alongside before being outmuscled / outpowered.

Physically, VAUTOUR was described as being "as big as a float" by his trainer. He is considered to be in the chasing mould and he has clear muscular power in the forward aspect of his body. He had raced only once in the season to this point and his stage of training and progression was much different to that of Western Boy. His trainer would be slowly building him up for the Deloitte Novices Hurdle or another prestigious trial race after this contest, whereas Western Boy would be being let down after this event and "minded" to the Festival, should he run well enough, which he certainly did. Vautour had more physical progression, race conditioning and strengthening to come after this race and - although not necessarily related - his energy distribution and race transitions indicated as much. He was keen early and racing too freely, shedding energy. He was also positioned in around third of the six runners on the inside rail. Whilst his size means he is unlikely to be intimidated by a big field, here it meant that his jockey had to try and angle his inexperienced horse off the rail to the outside of the leading horse. His jockey had already turned his horse's head once to prevent him from galloping too closely onto the heels of the front-runner and he managed to angle his horse out on the approach to the final bend. His stage of physical progression, the energy-shedding keenness early on, the moderate gallop - all this meant that off the final bend Vautour had to start transferring energy behind the bridle quite quickly, encouraged to do so by his jockey, and probably explains why he fiddled the last hurdle as he was only just beginning to race with the power he had transferred at that stage. His rival seized his chance but once rolling away from the hurdle again Vautour secured the race quite easily.

Petrol: Vautour's advantage is closed down after the last hurdle but he still had the fuel to pull away comfortably before the line

For his next race Vautour would need to be much fitter (more race conditioned) and race with more control throughout the contest. The Deloitte (18f Soft/Hvy) was an exhibition of those aspects. Conscious of his horse's bridle ratio, Ruby Walsh assumed control of the race at the start and made his own gallop. His horse settled and jumped professionally and accurately bar one that he fiddled slightly, most likely because his jockey had just asked him to inject some pace before slowing again. The race transitions became smooth, energy distribution optimal, and when racing proper after the final bend he was still well within his comfort zone, pinging the last and only having to be pushed out to maintain his clear advantage. It was a very professional Grade One performance. It was of course reminiscent of the ride given to Champagne Fever at Cheltenham last season and the analytical point is the same: energy distribution. Even if Vautour is the best horse in the race his chance would be seriously compromised by shedding energy early on in the way that he did at Punchestown. In that scenario in March it would be more difficult to conserve enough energy for the latter stages and hand a potential advantage to those behind him, who would subsequently be able to close him down more easily with the pace change-up potential of their bridle ratios. Whereas - leading is not essential - if Vautour controls his energy distribution and effects the smoothness of race transitions he did at Leopardstown it puts additional pressure on those horses that are using up the majority of their energy in the "On" aspect of their bridle ratio, because what will be needed to down Vautour in this scenario is strong reserves of energy at the end of the race, the very thing that failed My Tent Or Yours last season, despite his actual effort being the maximum. 

JLT Novices Chase 2014: Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference is indicated by the descending order of reference

Most men pursue pleasure with such breathless haste that they hurry past it
- Søren Kierkegaard

This race has little historicity and is now a Grade One contest for the first time. Its inclusion in the Festival roster has met with widespread frustration given that it adds a clear alternative to the traditional Arkle-or-RSA conundrum but such frustrations arise simply from the compulsion to bet. Analytically the JLT Novices Chase is most welcome: it provides a serious platform for those horses that would clearly be outpaced in an Arkle Chase and for those who lack the physical strength and stamina as a novice to see out a long distance at Festival pace. The former-Jewson calms that breathless haste a little. As a race for novices with an intermediate distance, in some cases it can be difficult to assess the physicality, mentality and stage of progression of the runners. Nonetheless, as a Grade One event at the Festival we are looking for one of the season's top novices with an even distribution of energy, a purposeful preparation and a touch of residual class.

Vukovar is a young (5yo), long and athletic horse with clear physical potential when maturing into his frame, for which he will need time. He has the enthusiasm of youth having run from the front in both his novice chase starts (as a 4yo) this season and it is likely that he has a fairly determined mentality - slight mistakes have not altered the approach he takes to the following obstacle. On debut at Warwick he ran over two miles in Good to Soft ground in a small field where his rival was the enigmatic Mr Mole. It later transpired that connections were disappointed he could not win and he was duly fitted with a tongue-tie for his next start. Here, at Warwick, he raced into an early lead and maintained his gallop until drilling through the top of the second last fence after which his breathing seemed to be affected and he started to wilt. His connections reported that he choked; it could also be that this was his first chase start, his first run in a new country, and his first run since June, so tiring late on could well have been expected. As it was he provided a target for his talented rival to aim at and he was duly mown down comfortably after the last fence by his opponent.

At Newbury in soft ground over 18.5f he again raced from the front but with less exuberance and more control. Unfortunately his only serious rival, Open Hearted, ran as if something was amiss from an early stage and the contest turned into a piece of exercise which but for bundling through the third last he completed with relish. Vukovar clearly possesses a measure of talent - he beat Dell' Arca at Auteuil over hurdles - but at this stage of his career he would be best bullying inferior horses in small fields, using his latent talent allied to his imposing physical strength for a young horse to outmuscle/outpower those opponents. In the heat of a Grade One Festival race with a more frenetic gallop the task before him is to enjoy the experience and run with as much credit as possible. If others falter he may do even better than that. 

Oscar Whisky's physicality has already been discussed here, in relation to the physical characteristics needed for a World Hurdle. It is similar in some ways to that of Cue Card, but not the same. As a hurdler, he was high class. His Cheltenham Festival record is admirable, but there are no wins because none of his four attempts were over his specialist distance of 20f, the trip at which he won two Aintree Hurdles. Fourth in a Supreme Novices Hurdle, third in a Champion Hurdle, fifth in a World Hurdle, then pulled up in a World Hurdle. Never a three-mile stayer, his chasing mission has begun two seasons too late but his target race is over the correct distance for his physical attributes. 

They are: a high level elite class gallop and an On/Behind bridle ratio that spikes to maximum effect in the middle, but with a gun to his head asking for either raw speed/acceleration or stamina/grind the returns diminish significantly at the top level. His mentality has always been excellent. This is quite a heady mix when sent into a novice sphere against horses with more workmanlike profiles. He ran three times over fences at Cheltenham, something his trainer has long been reluctant to do with his best novice chasers. Sprinter Sacre and Finian's Rainbow did not visit Cheltenham over fences until their Arkle Chase runs; Grandouet has been set a similar path. Then again with Oscar Whisky his trainer had very little to learn about him, having raced for four seasons over hurdles at all distances and on all ground. His chase runs have revealed little in many ways, other than his prospective opponents for this race have had little trouble getting competitive with him. From the front or with a lead, Oscar Whisky races in the same way with his mentality ensuring a fullness of effort. He was beaten by Taquin Du Seuil (gave 5lbs), then he beat Taquin Du Seuil (levels) on a desperate weather day with five fences omitted, and in between he mastered Wonderful Charm (gave 8lbs) by half a length making all. In each case, significantly, Oscar Whisky was allowed or was able to distribute his energy evenly and efficiently, and as a result his performances were in the optimal range.

That was not so much the case at Sandown for the three-runner Grade One Scilly Isles Novices Chase. His trainer, perhaps referring to this race in clawing, heavy ground has made it clear that he would rather not run horses than subject them to conditions of this kind but perhaps he may have been caught in two minds because of a desire to get his horse out and running, citing that Oscar Whisky is a "stuffy type" that would benefit from running regularly. Oscar Whisky has a strong mentality as his Aintree successes on the back of Cheltenham "failures" have shown and he needed that here as he did not appear to enjoy the experience at all, his jockey purposefully trying to hold him together in the ground as he struggled to jump out of it and was untidy at many fences. His superior residual class won him the race as with so much of the tiring work done he came back on the bridle when many horses would have been too fatigued to give more and asserting by 9L in tired fashion. One of the difficult things about Oscar Whisky over fences is understanding what he actually needs ideally but middle distances, an elite class pace and better ground would come closest. He will get those conditions in this race and merits respect even if the suspicion remains that a rival with greater progression in his frame and less battle scars will edge past him. 

But for that half length defeat to Oscar Whisky in December, Wonderful Charm would have racked up a four-timer. He is a potentially talented horse, although the reasons why, having not raced since October, he was sent into a World Hurdle field aged only five are best left to his trainer. He obviously summered well, starting his season in October (last year's winner started in September) and then going on to win the Rising Stars Novices Chase at Wincanton (won previously for the same stable by Silviniaco Conti) and the Grade Two Berkshire Novices Chase at Newbury. He then ran Oscar Whisky close at Cheltenham, so that there is the requisite ability present is not in doubt.

Ability is not enough. Having completed his four races in the first half of the season, his trainer stated that he would not run again before the Festival, a gap of three months. Noble Prince (2011) ran in the Grade One Irish Arkle on January 23; Sir Des Champs (2012) ran in a Grade Two at Leopardstown on January 28; and like Noble Prince, Benefficient (2013) ran in the Irish Arkle on January 26. All were Irish-trained, and all had displayed a preference for stamina at some stage in terms of either race distance or run style. Wonderful Charm, too, has run between 20f-22f on each start this season. Highly rated by his stable, he may be a staying chaser in the making but at the moment he perhaps resembles in his run style what Oscar Whisky may have looked like if sent chasing a couple of season ago. Wonderful Charm's On/Behind bridle ratio is very much towards the former. He had a breathing operation after Ruby Walsh reported he didn't feel right in the World Hurdle and this season his performances have been characterised by keenness, travelling notably well on the bridle, and prior to meeting Oscar Whisky outclassing inferior rivals.

This was true at Wincanton where he clattered through the last two fences, ceding lengths to the leader. He was straightened up, gathered in, and responded by picking up again to surge forward and win. This led to post-race comments that suggested 21f was the minimum trip for him but the amount of energy he expends during the "on" aspect of his bridle ratio does not suggest this at all, at least not for his novice season and the fact that he has not been asked to compete over three miles by his trainer perhaps affirms this view. He can race proper, for sure, as he proved against Oscar Whisky but in that race he seemed to display very similar physical attributes to his more illustrious rival. His energy distribution in that race seemed more even, more one-paced, probably because Oscar Whisky had the class to stretch him out of his comfort zone and make him race with different attributes. He responded to a more demanding test well but unlike Oscar Whisky he will still be maturing physically, as he looks to be slightly narrow-chested. Physical growth, a keenness to race, a bridle ratio suggesting his best work is done in his comfort zone and a planned absence from the track may make his task more difficult in March, for all that he appears to have a lot of natural ability.

Chest Press: The older Oscar Whisky (right) has more muscular reserves of strength than Wonderful Charm (left) but they were matched closely in ability terms earlier in the season.

Not unlike his more talented grey stablemate, Felix Yonger has been subject to a certain amount of analytical distortion, with many media platforms suggesting he should run in the Arkle Chase, and, furthermore, that he should be the favourite for that contest. The details do not confirm this view, but they should also not take anything away from his own capabilities, which are clearly identifiable.

The reason behind the distortion is an old and recurring one: "form". It is one of the most overused and poorly chosen words when discussing elite novice contests. Felix Yonger beat Defy Logic (pictured, below), then beat Trofolium in a race with a pace collapse; Defy Logic beat Champagne Fever and Trifolium was second; it followed, mutatis mutandis, that Felix Yonger should and Champagne Fever should not therefore run in the Arkle and given that Champagne Fever was favourite and still is favourite for the race that Felix Yonger should be favourite for the Arkle and Champagne Fever should run in the old Jewson. What is his trainer, Willie Mullins, playing at?

Brakes Off, Brakes On: Felix Yonger (left) enjoyed his return to racing early on in the season but his powers have since plateaued 

What can be seen quite clearly are the different targets of different horses in Ireland. Defy Logic was ostensibly an Irish winter ground horse. He has talent but it is not of a kind that would see him fair well in a Cheltenham Arkle Chase. His trainer made specific reference to "the softer the better" for his horse and that his win in the race contested by Champagne Fever was a main target - "delighted to win a Grade One with him" - as was no doubt the hope with the Irish Arkle, where internal bleeding ended his season. In many ways he is reminiscent of the Noel Meade trained Realt Dubh, who had a similarly targeted campaign with an Irish Arkle victory. That horse actually ran with great credit in The Arkle, finishing around 9L third to Captain Chris and Finian's Rainbow. He won again at Punchestown but didn't win another race, his lack of residual class laid bare in open company. Against Felix Yonger, Defy Logic was encountering the quickest ground in his career to date, attempting to make all at a fast pace as usual, only to be picked up late in the contest. What is obvious when watching that race is how Defy Logic was beaten quite early, headed two out from where he was ridden and rousted and visibly tired into a mistake at the last fence. That was not the case against Champagne Fever; they were very different runs owing to different physical stages of his season. Against Felix Yonger he was being geared towards his first winter target and ran accordingly.

Trifolium's breathing problems have been well documented and this was another opponent that went off fast from the front and was unable to sustain his effort, weakening sharply as a tired horse jumping the last fence. When Champagne Fever made a mistake two from home in the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown, Defy Logic was then presented the race with Trifolium, who had been in behind them until staying on when his race was over, finishing second. A "perfect form storm" was duly created, but its worth as a reliable analytical tool is low.

Interestingly, the racecourse evidence tells a different story. Not least because just as Felix Yonger was becoming the latest Arkle fashion accessory, he got beat, at Limerick, by his stablemate The Paparrazi Kid. That was over 19f. But instead of asking why he got beaten and what could be learned of his physicality in defeat, rather than victory, the "didn't stay" line was put through the run by those keen to get four steps ahead of his trainer. On the contrary, what can be seen from his Limerick defeat confirms the overall impression of his two victories that he would prefer more of a stamina test on good ground. Ruby Walsh reported how he was close to being taken off his feet by Trifolium. If that is so, then Champagne Fever (and Defy Logic) would have had Felix Yonger in a great deal of trouble had he tried to chase them in their Grade One race, and with no prisoners taken in an Arkle, Hinterland and Grandouet have already shown the trouble a 20f horse can get into against them. At Limerick Felix Yonger was able to move more within his comfort zone and in so doing was happy to 'flick' across the surface with his right front leg, suggesting good ground would be more than welcome (his best run over hurdles was his 7L second to Simonsig in the Neptune Novices Hurdle at the Festival on good ground over 21f). Having moved through the race okay, if a little wide, his best moments came when racing behind the bridle as a couple of moderate jumps left him with a number of lengths to find on the eventual winner, which he set about hunting down with relish, but unsuccessfully, suggesting that there is more to come over slightly further distances. (The winner, The Paparazzi Kid, was notably impressive in this race.) The overriding impression is that Felix Yonger is an eight year old coming into a competitive novice chase arena after a year off the track. He has probably surprised his handlers a little with his exuberance as much as with his early season ability, but Limerick perhaps hinted at a plateau and the task ahead is to condition him for a JLT Novices Chase that will test his ability to both hang onto an elite novice pace and see the race out at the other end.

In his novice hurdle season just gone, TAQUIN DU SEUIL won a Grade Two by six lengths on heavy ground and then the Grade One Challow Hurdle by nine lengths, again on heavy ground. From that three week period there seems to have sprung a concrete association to his name that he "loves" or "needs" some real cut in the ground, which he almost certainly does not. Those Graded races were not very competitive and he was easily the best horse in each race, so when he then ran well for a long way but was ultimately well beaten in a fairly hot Neptune Novices Hurdle (won by The New One) on good to soft Festival ground it served to reinforce the general perception of his required ground conditions from the winter. He also made his chase debut on heavy ground at Ffos Las. Yet analytically the ground is not important for him. He does have a slightly peculiar knee lift but he had no problem out-speeding the "fast" Oscar Whisky on good ground at Cheltenham, where he also showed a tractable mentality to be unaffected by the slow-stop-start gallop early in the race. After the race his trainer revealed the Arkle Chase was still under consideration - he had made My Tent Or Yours work for his victory at Ascot over hurdles on Good to Soft ground (16f) - owing to the speed he displayed at home and presumably by the way in which he bettered Oscar Whisky. True to their word, his next race was in the Grade One Henry VIII Novices Chase at Sandown over two miles, again on good ground. 

This was a no-nonsense fact-finding mission that ended in an 8L defeat and a confirmation that this race is the most suitable one. He got the strong gallop that he most likely thrives upon but this race was notable for its unusual depth: Hinterland and Grandouet were two high class, fast, specialised two milers meeting each other for the second time. Taquin Du Seuil jumped the first two fences well, and was enjoying the early pace too much, pulling his way past Grandouet in third place before settling. The big test came after the first bend as the field started motoring down the back and towards the railway fences. He did well but finally he was bested by the ninth fence, pecking on landing and losing momentum. This brought closer the time he needed to race proper and rounding the final bend he had switched behind the bridle but it was noticeable how well he responded, closing to within three lengths of Hinterland and Grandouet as those two went for everything and scooted clear. Taquin Du Seuil stayed on well to the line, running a fine JLT trial under the cover of an Arkle one.

Carpet: Taquin Du Seuil has produced high class performances this season on Good ground

The Cheltenham re-match with Oscar Whisky, this time on soft ground, produced a similar outcome to their first battle, this time Oscar Whisky narrowly prevailing. But here it was back to a ponderous pace and a race with little intent until it got to the final stages, and it was noticeable how Taquin Du Seuil was ambling at some of his fences, in contradistinction to the helter skelter of Sandown; his most recent win at Haydock on heavy ground was reduced to exercise work when O'Faolains Boy ran with a "desperate" post-race scope (Taquin Du Seuil was nonetheless impressive physically). If we are to assess his optimal conditions then they are those which he has yet to face: 20f, goodish ground (or worse), strong gallop from start to finish - much what he can expect to face in March. He has shown he can handle a variety of challenges and that he himself has more improvement to come, with 16f pace and 20f stamina, allied to tactical speed at the longer distance. A nice blend of physicality. Normal progression permitting, he looks a ready-made Grade One JLT horse and the inference has been made clear that with more time three miles will appear on his radar. He has also demonstrated something that may be crucial: starting in October means he summered well and he has run five times since, once per month and twice in January recovering and developing physically after each race. Soundness permitting, he is in a rich circular vein of training, running and development which can see novices thrive. It will take a high class effort to master him. 

Neptune Novices Hurdle 2014: Towards Raceday

* Preliminary Thoughts on the race are here
* Personal preference is highlighted by the descending order of reference

Quality is not an act, it is a habit
- Aristotle

A race that continues to provide for runners with very high potential. Even when just taking the recent past into account: Mikael d'Haguenet rattled off a six-timer in his winning season; Peddlers Cross went down by a length to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle; First Lieutenant came second in the RSA Chase and second in the Ryanair Chase; Simonsig won the Arkle Chase; and The New One is among the favourites for the Champion Hurdle having won the International Hurdle. This is a tough roll-call to get in line for.

The identifiably robust The Tullow Tank secured two winter Grade One victories to show a level of class that perhaps exceeded the expectations of his connections, winning the Future Champions Novices Hurdle by 8L at Leopardstown. In that race he was obviously well on top at the end of the race but the same was also true for his win in the Royal Bond, despite the much narrower winning margin. In terms of physicality what can be seen on the racecourse has also been clearly stated by his trainer: "He was impressive the last day [at Leopardstown] in that the further he went the better he was...He can race on and off the bridle so [jockey] Danny (Mullins) did well because he's not the easiest ride", and that impression would be confirmed later on in the Deloitte Hurdle over 18f. 

Shoulder Press: The Tullow Tank (right) has size and power on the front end

His physicality is underpinned by the presence of strapping, powerful shoulders. He is a horse of notable size and as such is a much different proposition to Faugheen, for example. He most likely lacks the potential residual class of that horse but a defining aspect of physicality in general is how the underlying engine is used and to that end The Tullow Tank's work in the second half of his races is an admirable strength. In the Royal Bond (Dec 1, goodish ground) he raced prominently in third or fourth; a signpost towards his On/Behind bridle ratio came approaching and rounding the final turn as his reins were being shaken to get closer and once round the bend he began to switch behind the bridle - some way out for a two mile hurdle race. There was no loss of ground and once energised he began his task of wearing down the leader without allowing the rival chasing him much of a look in, powering home in sustained fashion to be well on top at the line. 

In the Future Champion Novices Hurdle (Dec 27, Soft) the class of race, the minimum distance and the ground likely conspired to make the early part of the race the most demanding he had faced. His jockey later reported that at one point along the back of the course he thought he was going to struggle - the strong wind was affecting his horse too, he said - but The Tullow Tank persevered and found his level subsequently. As previously these were not smooth race transitions but the horse either had the class, the force of will or both to keep rolling and jumping and, faced with the request to race from behind the bridle, decided not to stop answering until the jockey told him to, demolishing a suspect field by eight lengths. "The formbook" showed a dual Grade One winner with both wins at two miles and - extraordinarily - the Racing Post awarded him the pace analytic "quickened" during his win at Leopardstown. The person or persons who did so may wish to review the race, as what they suggested to be sharp acceleration was actually the complete opposite kind of forward momentum.

The Tullow Tank had already been transferring his energy behind the bridle rounding the final turn - again notably early for a two mile contest. King Of The Picts, in the lead, went under the whip upon entering the straight and it was the smooth travelling Moyle Park that posed the greatest win threat. The Tullow Tank was shaken up completely as it appeared the leader may just keep going and Moyle Park was still untroubled. There was then a long phase of running approaching the last hurdle where the following occurred: The Tullow Tank finally applied the full extent of his energy behind the bridle, galloping powerfully but not quickly down the outside; Moyle Park in second had nothing left to give once asked to switch behind the bridle, most likely owing to a physical problem (he has not raced since, at the time of writing); and King Of The Picts, the 33/1 outsider that had been under the whip for the entire straight, finally tired from his efforts: the leading duo visibly decelerated and fell in a hole at precisely the same time as The Tullow Tank was reaching the peak of his stamina gallop reserves, sending him on as they toiled to win by 8L. Understanding the physicality and performance type of the runners immediately makes obvious the extent to which this race fell apart, for all that what The Tullow Tank achieved was highly commendable in many ways.

This created yet another "perfect form storm" where prior to the Deloitte Novices Hurdle (18f) the spread of expectation across racing media platforms that a dual two mile Grade One winning horse would win again on his way to winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle (back at two miles) appeared limitless. And effortless, despite his running style being anything but. He was beaten easily, even over a trip that would technically help his obvious stamina, and immediately cited by connections as needing more distance to be effective. In the Deloitte he ran well enough, but he did not appear entirely comfortable over many of his hurdles, and his head was at times slightly off to the side, as if he was feeling something physically. Nonetheless this was without doubt his most impressive run of the season. Once in pursuit of Vautour off the final bend his energy distribution seemed more even that it had in the past. It still notably favoured the "Behind" aspect of his bridle ratio, of course, and he was under the whip on the run to the last, whereas Vautour was still well within his comfort zone having jumped and travelled with impressive athleticism. But The Tullow Tank did not err mentally and galloped hard to keep the 3L gap consistent all the way to the line. The extra distance of the Neptune will suit him very well indeed, but it remains unlikely that he will have the gallop pace class to hold his position sufficiently in a race this demanding.

The unbeaten Red Sherlock is not all that much of a different type to his Irish rival. He has slightly more defined size and power from front to back and his runs indicate a clear preference for stamina. There are one or two mental and physical quirks with him also, however. He showed a hint of immaturity in a poor race at Southwell (21f, Good) where between the second last and last hurdles he had to have his neck shaken and received a sharp enough whip crack for a contest that was never in doubt. To his credit, Red Sherlock understood what was being asked of him and despite staring down the last hurdle a little completed his task well. His next experience at Wetherby (20f, Soft) was an equally weak race but again there were signs of a slightly porous mentality. Tactically there was no inclination revealed to race him among horses or to give him experience of that kind; he ran from the front, stamina and a patent class advantage assured. He won the race easily without having to race behind the bridle or receive any kind of communication from his jockey, but of his own volition - it could have been due to the shadows of the rails along his running line - he ran down the last two hurdles quite drastically to the left and, as if to say he did so on purpose, flashed his tail as he coasted to the line.

Tail Up: Red Sherlock (left) has youthful quirks but mature physical strength

These kinds of things can be overplayed; it can also be said that horses with character often possess the ability to match it and the likelihood is that he is simply a young novice with plenty to say for himself in easy races. His mind was much more focused for his most taxing race of his season, when forced to run straight, hard and true against a talented rival at Cheltenham in deep ground (21f, Heavy). There he faced a rival with much more his own level of ability in the shape of Rathvinden, a second tier horse from the Mullins stable in comparison to their number one hope Faugheen. Rathvinden was in the process of running a deep race in the Grade Two Neptune trial race at Warwick (21f, Heavy) in January when he crashed out of the race three from home. That race had been earmarked for Royal Boy until he was switched to the rearranged Tolworth Hurdle and the race was won by Deputy Dan having outpaced and then outstayed the future Betfair Hurdle winner Splash Of Ginge (third) by 16L and Masters Hill (second) by 9L. The race was run at an above average gallop in the conditions with the pace put into the race by the enthusiastic Creepy and having remained in rear for half the race the trio of Deputy Dan, Rathvinden and Splash of Ginge were racing proper from some way out once they made their forward moves. The somewhat delayed point to consider is that Rathvinden had exerted a fair amount of energy prior to falling and travelled over to Cheltenham only two weeks afterwards, so whether that affected his maximum running potential against Red Sherlock is hard to gauge.

Either way he ran a fine race but gave best to Red Sherlock in a prolonged, stamina-sapping duel in fading light (no shadows on course). Here Creepy and Aubusson ensured a decent gallop but they were easily left behind once the gallop downhill turning for home had been completed. Red Sherlock moved a length ahead of his rival and shaken up to transfer his energy behind the bridle with a crack of the whip he flashed his tail to make the point. What cannot be doubted is that Red Sherlock galloped hard and true all the way up the straight and climbed the hill with a resolution that meant his rival could never get alongside, Rathvinden's jockey accepting defeat fifty yards from the line having given everything to no avail. The deep ground and ensuing war off the bend suited Red Sherlock's physicality very well but it left the impression that similar ground may be necessary if the full range of his effectiveness is to be witnessed in March. Up in class once again, on better ground and in a bigger field, he is unlikely to be afforded the same kind of time and room to run the race he would prefer: horses with more residual class and elite gallop pace will be alongside him to ask him the kind of questions his physicality may not be able to answer.

Among those in waiting for him is Faugheen. Reference to Pont Alexandre (favourite but well beaten in this race last year for the same stable) is worth dismissing unless it focuses for comparative purposes on their respective physicality, which is the significant aspect. Pont Alexandre had the build of, and ran akin to that of, a strapping three mile chaser. He powered his frame through deep ground against inferior rivals but he did not do it quickly and the accompanying disparity between racecourse evidence, Festival race suitability and general expectation bordered on the enormous. Faugheen is much better situated. He is quite a narrow horse. His chest and shoulders do not offer a great deal of staying power at this stage; he is built to race quickly when required, but the engine does not necessarily cut out over longer trips. Although he is something of an unknown quantity - because he has simply outclassed all his rivals to date - that cannot be an excuse to opine that he "could be anything" when quite clearly that is not the case. He is likely to be much better over hurdles than fences, for example. We also know more about him on the racecourse than was the case with Pont Alexandre. Faugheen won a 24f Point race (as did Simonsig) before dismantling Josses Hill, who looks promising himself this season. Including his Point victory, the following in-race comments appear: "qckn clr", "quickened clear", "travelled easily...not extended", "eased into lead next...easily" and from his latest and least impressive performance, "easily". That was over three miles in heavy ground but by again outclassing inferior rivals it was a performance that strongly evidenced why three miles under Festival conditions is not something that would be particularly suitable. His On/Behind bridle ratio is very much tilted in favour of the former.

Narrow Speed: Faugheen has a smoothness of movement for specific reasons but hurdling could be more fluid

Only recently, Simonsig and The New One's "jumping" was sometimes brought up as a negative, yet both won this race comfortably, Simonsig going on to win an Arkle Chase despite carrying an infection and The New One going on to win an International Hurdle this season. Hurdling techniques are rarely perfect; they combine with or result from the physicality of the horse and the conditions in which they race on any given day. Faugheen on occasion jumps from the shoulder, so he will run to a hurdle and push his shoulders over first leaving the legs a bit stiff and straight as they go over, rather than those components working together in a more fluid movement. Such aspects of micro-analysis rarely present a problem to elite horses so if Faugheen is a top class novice in waiting his hurdling will not affect his Neptune performance in any significant way. As of yet though we have not seen him switch behind the bridle and that aspect of his physicality is still largely unknown.

Potentially elite horses that present with his kind of energy distribution curve are usually reliant to a large extent on shattering the bridle ratios of their opponents before those opponents can engage them with running power from behind the bridle. In this vein we can consider Sprinter Sacre, of course, but there does not need to be such an extraordinary level of residual class present. Un De Sceaux has a similar modus operandi, as so far does Our Conor. The salient point is that such horses can use the bulk of their energy to run at an elite pace for much longer than their opponents without coming under any pressure in racing terms because those opponents weaken earlier than would be the case in a "normal" contest. Our Conor's Triumph Hurdle was an example of this kind of energy-plus-class spike, which is why he did not have to switch behind the bridle against moderate opposition thus creating the impression of a spectacular performance. Moved into open company, Hurricane Fly (naturally) was of sufficient class to put him under pressure and the response was notably tame behind the bridle. This is also the problem facing Un De Sceaux. It is a running style that finds expression most often in novice company, where with a horse of this kind opponents are likely to be lacking in sufficient class to pose serious problems. Essentially this is the puzzle with Faugheen: the point at which he is required to transfer all available energy behind the bridle is the point at which he is potentially at his weakest, because the bulk of the energy in such horses is invested in the "On" aspect of their bridle ratio. It does not mean they cannot race or make effort behind the bridle - they can be genuinely trying; but such is the vast expense of energy that produces extraordinary levels of sustained gallop pace it is only natural that in comparison there is very little energy left should it be required at the end of the race. Simonsig may be the closest example and because his Neptune lacked Grade One rivals he won the race uncontested. So could Faugheen, unless there is a horse that has the Grade One pace to keep watch over him and the kind of bridle ratio that allows for a more even distribution of energy at this level.

ROYAL BOY may just be able to make his own acts of class a habit. His owner had Finian's Rainbow in this race in 2010 where he loomed into contention in a race that was impressively deep and rumbled into something of a helter skelter stamina war that raged behind the bridle of every runner in contention rounding the final bend. The very opposite visual image to Simonsig's year. Most others fall somewhere in between, as may this one.

Royal Boy won his 3m Point, Finian's Rainbow was unfortunate to fall when leading at the last in his. Both had one hurdles start before going up to Grade One company, Finian's Rainbow went to the Challow Hurdle (21f, Heavy, 1L third), and was then prepped by winning a moderate race in February before tackling this race. The difference comes in that Royal Boy will have had an extra season under Rules to mature physically before running in his Cheltenham target race. This could be significant as Finian's Rainbow lacked physical maturity and strength in both his Neptune and Arkle attempts, before winning a Champion Chase at the age of nine. So a key aspect of assessing Royal Boy's Neptune potential relies on knowledge of the extent to which he has matured and strengthened in his own right but also comparatively to Finian's Rainbow would be interesting to know too.

To that end Royal Boy offers a fairly natural potential conundrum, because it can sometimes be difficult to assess that potential through the mist of powerful connections. Certainly his regular jockey had a similar struggle, as he opted to choose the year younger Josses Hill in the rescheduled Tolworth Hurdle. All of which is compounded by the fact that Royal Boy was not among the original entries for the race, until a reluctance to send him over two and a half miles in deep ground at Warwick led him to Kempton.

Another reason was that he is "not a slow horse" by which his trainer most likely means he has a certain amount of residual class. That is borne out to an extent by his impressive first run over hurdles (narrowly defeated) against Melodic Rendezvous, before finishing third to that horse in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle where a physical issue curtailed his season. He reappeared from absence over 21f on good ground at Kempton in a novice chase - so soft ground was not essential - where again he moved as if feeling a physical problem. Given that he was then dropped back to hurdles it is likely to have been muscle problems, but no official reason was given after the race, in which he was beaten 44L.

He remained at middle distances four weeks later for a facile win in a moderate maiden hurdle (his first win under Rules) at Ascot over 22f on soft ground. He was impressive in travelling easily within his comfort zone until shaken up towards the last to stride away. Markedly up in class - back to the Grade One he tried to win last season - and the professionalism and energy distribution were similar. Prominent the whole way and moving strongly into the lead rounding the final bend he moved smoothly behind the bridle to begin a war with his stablemate on the run to the last, the pair pulling eleven lengths clear of the remaining runners. What was notable was that for a horse better suited to middle distances, Royal Boy was not stretched out by either the ground or the pace of this two mile contest and he showed tenacity to battle back from being marginally nosed out after the last to master his rival before the line.

Touchdown: Josses Hill hits the turf first but Royal Boy begins to gather his powers behind the bridle

It may transpire that Royal Boy is the most professional of the Neptune runners, by which it is meant that he will handle everything about the occasion and the race the best and thus not shed any unnecessary energy. His smooth race transitions, even energy distribution and finishing mentality underpins an On/Behind bridle ratio that appears highly attuned to middle distances, better ground and top class novice opposition. There is also a sense of quiet understatement from his connections, happy to stay in the shadows: the rearranged Tolworth was quickly forgotten and much of the post-race attention centred on the poor display from The Liquidator. Yet from the very outset of his career Royal Boy has tangled with a horse that is now a Champion Hurdle outsider and Royal Boy's connections had no hesitation committing to Grade One contests from the beginning of his career. Faugheen beat Jossies Hill in "that" Bumper by a considerable margin and they are two quite different types of horse. It could be that Royal Boy and Faugheen are more closely matched, especially with ten hurdles to negotiate.

Arkle Chase 2014: Towards Raceday

* Early season analytics for this race are here

The only sport I'm not interested in is horse racing. That's because I don't know the horses personally.  

- Nat King Cole

The Arkle Chase ranks high amongst the most frequently misanalysed contests of the Festival. Like the Supreme Novices, its hurdling sister race, a lot of this misunderstanding stems from the lack of any fixed procedure or race requirements leading up to the contest. It is an incredibly fluid race in terms of the options available as a means of preparation, and correspondingly there are no key, recurring signposts towards future effective performance in this race. By contrast, the open company versions - Champion Hurdle (Fighting Fifth, International Hurdle, Christmas Hurdle, Kingwell Hurdle; Ryanair Hurdle, Irish Champion Hurdle) and Queen Mother Champion Chase (Desert Orchid Chase, Tingle Creek Chase, Game Spirit Chase; Dial-A-Bet Chase, Fortria Chase, Tied Cottage Chase) - have structured, historic races through the season that promote specific competition and comparison of equine ability and characteristics in relation to the Festival race for which they are a precursor. 

With that structure lacking and unnecessary in the novice versions it leads to a kind of "open season" where performances of almost any kind that, in wild theory, closely resemble two mile ability are given reference towards the Championship event in March, often quite serious reference too. However, in any Arkle Chase, the extraordinary demands of the race for novices means that only one or two have the physical capability to play a leading role in the event - it is just far too demanding an experience for any horse not specifically suited to the race. So around ten or twelve horses may be "put forward" as viable for the race through the season, but knowledge of the race means that only two horses (sometimes one or three) can ever be viable for the contest once the day arrives. 

The lack of structured appreciation of what the Arkle Chase as a race demands is the first reason as to why the word "form" is continually used for this race and its hurdling equivalent, despite its relevance being low. "X has the best form" or "the best form over two miles is..." are common and strongly believed in phrases, but when viewed with a certain amount of detachment they are very peculiar things to say, as if the best "form" - one horse beating another in winter, for example - means that, in March, that horse will win that duel again along with beating any other horse, regardless of a large number of other analytical considerations, ones that are far more important than "form" at any given juncture.

For the Arkle Chase of the last six or seven years (i.e. recently) the winner was the best horse in the race, the horse with the most residual class over fences (as well as hurdles in some cases). But the "form" of that horse through the season will have been looked upon discouragingly at various stages: the arena of betting often produces a philosophy of doubt, a mood of questioning and critiquing at every turn, of seeking perfection and positives even where they are not required. And where, rarely, "form" manages to be shunted out of the general analytical frame, its dreaded companion "value" stands by, ready to question "the price" of a potential runner. Consider the following "form" and "price" issues:

2008: Tidal Bay does not contest a race over 2m until early February, so has no 2m "form" until then. In that race he is beaten by an inferior rival and doesn't jump fluently; his 2m "form" is poor and his most recent run a defeat, but he wins the Arkle easily by thirteen lengths, jumping well. (High residual class over hurdles, three easy novice chase wins over middle distances prior).

2009: Forpadydeplasterer won a modest novice chase first time up, just, all out. He was then beaten three times consecutively, finishing second in all three Grade One contests so in defeat his "form" was not good enough, but he goes on to win the Arkle. (Had been classy over hurdles.)

2010: Sizing Europe's "form" was questionable, having "beaten little" in two novice chases at odds on and then when even money being challenged at the last fence when his rival fell. He won that race, the rival who fell still went off 5/2f in the Arkle, bled and finished 8th as Sizing Europe won. (He looked set to win a Champion Hurdle until injuring his back after two out.)

2011: Captain Chris, only very recently, is the textbook example. Beaten 10L on his first start, and then 10L again on his second start. Then beaten nearly 5L by the same rival that beat him 10L in his last race. Then beaten again over 21f. Four consecutive "form" defeats, all at different tracks and at different trips. He won in February, a three runner race by thirteen lengths when a 2/5f. His "form' was nowhere near the "required level". He won the Arkle fairly comfortably, beating a future Champion Chaser. (Was unbeaten over hurdles but no residual class of note in those runs.)

2012: Sprinter Sacre won his three novice chases by a combined 46L but many were still consumed by the "form" asking "what did he beat" and many were happy to hunt alternative "value" at every turn as his price went from 10/1 to 8/11, winning the Arkle easily by 7L.

2013: Simonsig's two novice chase wins came in the space of a week, on heavy ground, and by 84L. "Form" that was not worth anything; he won the Arkle despite carrying an infection into the race.

The Reality of Physicality: Four defeats in a row did not change Captain Chris's physical potential; Finian's Rainbow (right) lacked the maturity on the day to match his plentiful talent

The second reason is a lack of suitable language to explain the underlying reasons for different curves of changeability regarding the development of horses of different ages and profiles. The task is to get to know the horses personally. In timely fashion, the current novice chase season in Ireland provides an example of great clarity regarding the problems many people experience. As the following is a personal commentary relating to events that have already happened, a reference to those events being predicted from early January is here in the "Felix Yonger" section (note the slightly dismissive reference to Trifolium by way of balance).

At the start of the season, Champagne Fever was the favourite for the Arkle Chase, which made sense. Having won the Festival Bumper in 2012 he went on to win a very strong renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle the following year. For much of his novice hurdling season there had been a general expectation that he would be running in a longer race, a feeling emphasised by a lacklustre run (probably with a virus) in the Slaney Novices Hurdle over 20f, then appearing to rely on a strong behind the bridle distribution of energy over 18f in the Deloitte Novices Hurdle. He thrived subsequently, was praised for his "speed" as well as stamina by connections, and was dropped down to the minimum trip where he won from the front, displaying excellent tactical pace and the ability to execute subtle pace-change ups, despite being closely hunted by two future Champion Hurdle contenders. It was a run that clearly earmarked him as a top class racehorse. As the Arkle Chase can often require strong running power from behind the bridle (or stamina) as well as the ability to stay close to a top class pace gallop, Champagne Fever was without question the leading Irish runner for the race and the leading player overall.

Roughly two seconds of jumping action changed this emphatically in the minds of many people. Having outclassed the field comfortably over 20f on debut, Champagne Fever ran over 17f (Soft) in the Grade One Racing Post Novices Chase at Leopardstown. This is where a strange analytical mist descended. The key aspect of the race - not identified by many - was just how easily Champagne Fever was travelling and jumping at a fast pace that was produced in part by the fact that Defy Logic is a "fast front-runner", albeit with not as much class. This led to Defy Logic making two slight but notable errors; each time afterwards he had to be urged briefly but visibly by his jockey to close up alongside Champagne Fever again. The latter was doing it all very easily, Ruby Walsh deciding to hold on to his horse rather than press his advantage when Defy Logic erred, something he later questioned himself on. Whether it was simple exuberance or lack of concentration Champagne Fever then had an errant two seconds two out, taking off too early and crashing through the fence with his girth (not unlike Al Ferof in the 2012 Arkle). His jockey later relayed how after that fence it can be difficult to get running again due to a slight uphill camber and with his chance gone, probably winded, he was allowed to coast home in third.

It is a common occurrence for mistakes, illnesses and generally poor runs to be encircled quickly by the philosophy of doubt. Odds change, betting preferences alter, expectations adjust; sometimes quickfire decisions on the whole constellation of a horse's capabilities are snapped off and locked down. This is fairly normal. It can be a positive and a negative: instinct can direct the mentality both ways. Analytically, however, it is the overall profile that remains absolutely central for this event (as the brief historical overview above shows). A fall for a novice being aimed at the Arkle Chase is a worrying sign because this usually indicates a fundamental flaw in the physical technique and structure of the horse. Falls in this division occur through excessive pressure on breathing and/or existing areas of pain; running at a level that requires a speed of movement, coordination, anticipation and precision that is not in keeping with a horse's level of residual class; or simple immaturity. In all cases this is indicative of a horse that if making the contest in March will be unable to cope with the incredible physical demands of the race. Mistakes are different; they are common; they are practice. Finian's Rainbow (to use this example) was the well touted favourite (eventually) in 2010 and much like Tidal Bay in 2008 his run prior to the Arkle bordered on error-strewn. It certainly lacked fluency. Although he was beaten into second place, when he ran in the Arkle his jumping was flawless. As was Tidal Bay's in victory. Physical preparation is a continuous process.

The writing in the link referred to above covered the "perfect form storm" illusion that so confused those who were attempting to link the largely irrelevant "form" of the Irish novice chasers. The point need not be belaboured, so with the key theoretical points in place we can move onto the runners themselves, and get to know them as individuals (personal preference indicated by descending order).

Valdez faces a tough examination. He was quite limited over hurdles in the context of this race and his toughest race was in March last year but not at the Festival, when struggling in heavy ground in Sandown's Imperial Cup, beaten 63L from an official rating of 135 (Had previously struggled on heavy ground that season also). We can estimate from this that Valdez was given ample chance to give indications of residual class but failed to do so. His novice chase campaign has been straightforward and he has been successfully guided away from deep underfoot conditions. However, the races have been generally weak affairs and his Newbury exertions propelled his handicap mark above 150. In that race on good ground the initial pace was relatively strong and Valdez made notable errors early at the second and sixth. Later in the race when his opponents had ceased to be of any relevance he jumped notably right before straightening accurately for the last two fences. At Doncaster on his most recent start he again provided errors early on and the key here is not the mistakes but their context. In small fields he is racing from last position because he is naturally enthusiastic: they want him to settle. He doesn't pull notably hard but he is keen to race quickly and for the Arkle Chase the problem arises whereby he is at the rear of the field, keen to 'get on with it' and making slight errors which taken together in a high class race will knock his rhythm significantly and make progress through key race transitions difficult.

The other aspect of those factors combined is his energy distribution, which is skewed towards the earlier parts of his races. At Newbury the opposition fell away and on good ground he was able to maintain his strong running power (relative to his level of class) but at Doncaster on rain-softened winter ground he was unable to reel in the front-running Arnaud. After jumping four out at Doncaster he was notably shaken up by his jockey and was clearly transferring his energy behind the bridle at that stage - some way out given the class of the contest. After three out his jockey asked him to race proper but he looked to be tiring (and probably was). However, the leader was not extending away and Thornton simply allowed his horse to breathe and gallop going to two out, gathering and holding his horse. He was probably expecting Arnaud to run out of petrol and tire he did, quite dramatically after the last fence where one brief surge of energy took Valdez past his fading rival and on to victory. It was a race characterised by uneven distributions of energy by the first and second in particular, and Fox Appeal in third was more efficient, able to track Valdez without threatening to overhaul him. Early race positioning, jumping at speed, energy distribution, fluency of leaps and lack of residual class combine to temper enthusiasm for Valdez, although it would be remiss not to point out the potential for physical strengthening given the enforced closure of his trainer's yard and not having raced for eight weeks as a result. This has to be placed in the context of his innate physicality also, which even when allowing for increased fitness still puts the bar too high for a deep Grade One effort.

Rock On Ruby reflects the analytical struggle that can occur when a "trend" or "stat" is not properly understood. Some Arkle Chase winners are also the "highest rated hurdler" in the field. Put another way this simply means that the horse with the most residual class in the race wins, which is not really a surprise. Just as often however such horses are beaten, because their physicality and/or career progression is not well suited to an Arkle Chase. Rock On Ruby has an official hurdles rating of 167 but Grandouet's is 166. Consideration of their respective chasing efforts shows Rock On Ruby to have had the equivalent of two exercise canters against two or three rivals; Grandouet started his season with two lung-bursting races in top company and was then still sent into battle a third time in unsuitable conditions. The reason underpinning that diversity of demands is physicality: Rock On Ruby has had at least two breathing operations but it has reached a stage where, at nine years of age, his connections do not wish to risk season-ending problems with their horse by stressing his breathing system on soft ground, or in other words giving him a hard race. That physical fragility no doubt underpinned the split amongst his owners at the start of the season: four of the six wished to stay over hurdles; two wanted to go chasing. That is why his first run was over hurdles and why his two subsequent chase runs were in the softest or easiest races possible. Rock On Ruby's mentality had also shown signs of that physical strain: his runs prior to the defence of his Champion Hurdle crown last season had not been illuminating with headgear required to maintain his overall focus.

Rock On Ruby has had an excellent career at the highest level: second in a Neptune Novices Hurdle, winner of a Champion Hurdle, runner-up in a Champion Hurdle. But his powers are naturally fading - if he had continued to run over hurdles this season his official rating would have lowered still further leaving Grandouet as the highest rated hurdler with "form figures" of U22. If his breathing holds, if his mind and body can sustain more pain, Rock On Ruby could run yet another fine Festival race, but in this different discipline any cracks that exist in his physicality and mentality will be chiselled wider apart by the extreme demands of this race.

A horse to also have undergone at least two breathing operations is Trifolium, in addition to "a bit of a problem with a back leg" according to his trainer. Following a hectic six-race heavy ground novice season prior to the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Trifolium performed with great credit on better ground at Cheltenham, finishing third behind Darlan and Cinders And Ashes. His eighth run saw a return to heavy ground and a narrow defeat in the Grade One equivalent at Punchestown. Eight races is a lot. Whether his busy season took its toll physically or whether he was simply unlucky with his physical progression is unclear, but following that long novice season his breathing and soundness faltered, leading to an absence of over eleven months. There therefore may have been an element of momentum-dependence about his progression through his novice hurdle season.

The interesting aspect of Trifolium's profile is his distribution of energy. He is a fine looking, muscular, powerful horse who can gallop with great intensity through heavy ground. In his novice hurdle season he was defeated in his first and second runs, and it was notable that for a long way through those races he looked both classy and the likeliest winner but ran out of energy deep into the race, finishing second and then third. He then won three of his next four races, in all cases winning by virtue of class and dismissing his rivals very much in the "On" mode of his bridle ratio. He wasn't challenged by any horse with similar ability and his powerful, prominent galloping well within his comfort zone led to visual demolitions. His defeat in amongst that run was very different: So Young at that time was also a top prospect - he would later finish a close and dramatic third in a high class renewal of the Neptune Novices Hurdle - but despite Trifolium travelling smoothly and looking comfortable going to two out when he was asked to switch behind the bridle and transfer his energy to race proper the response was notably tame and he was almost instantly well beaten. Maybe there was a small breathing problem, too.

What is not in doubt is that when he ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in 2012, Trifolium posted a highly impressive effort. He was more or less third or close to third the whole way round, which requires a very efficient use of energy. Trifolium gallops with great enthusiasm where possible from prominent positions. His class, physical strength and power enabled him to hold that position throughout the race but what this meant was that whilst he did switch behind the bridle more fully this time his energy distribution barely changed, making no discernible profit or loss from his position in the race late on.

Transfer: Trifolium has run exceptionally well from a prominent position and is a clear third but he is unable to offer any further power from behind the bridle and his effort plateaus in comparison to his rivals

Hanging In: Trifolium does not falter but a) Cinders And Ashes has put the race to bed with a sustained surge approaching the last; b) Montbazon made his move earlier and is now tiring back into fourth; c) Trifolium plateaus; d) Darlan has come from behind Trifolium into second; e) Prospect Wells has closed Trifolium down significantly

It is very rare for an elite or potentially elite horse to be able to alter significantly his or her innate physicality. Trifolium's novice chase season suggests this also. He easily outclassed an inferior field first time out on yielding ground. He then took on Felix Yonger on Good ground but significantly Trifolium raced freely and quickly from the front (not unlike Grandouet at Kempton) to such an extent that Felix Yonger's jockey later reported his horse was simply hanging on as best he could to the pace in the race. Trifolium could not sustain his own gallop and when the energy ran out from his "on" bridle comfort zone he was joined and passed easily by his rival, finishing a tired horse having had no energy to use behind the bridle approaching the last. Trifolium had engineered his own pace collapse. Next time out his role changed somewhat as the competition grew stronger. Champagne Fever and Defy Logic served up a front-running duel par excellence that Trifolium this time could not quite live with, hanging on in third before closing down the tired but safe winner. It may be that connections of Trifolium were aware of his poor energy distribution in his previous race and were simply letting their horse find his own rhythm, or perhaps the breathing system wasn't quite right. It was certainly working in the Irish Arkle next time out.

Energised: Trifolium possesses notable early and mid-race running power

That said Defy Logic burst blood vessels and Felix Yonger was unable to cope with the soft ground and Trifolium's prominent racing power and gallop over two miles. The rest were outclassed; so it is likely that what Trifolium did here was something he has long been capable of: running with power and intensity through deep ground to a level his opponents cannot match. The key question therefore relates to race transitions. Providing his breathing is okay and providing the better ground does not elicit any pain from previous soundness issues, he will have the "On" aspect of his bridle ratio seriously stretched by the high level of residual class and running ability of Champagne Fever, presumably from the front. As Trifolium will likely be tracking the leader the onus is on him to engage that leader first, if possible. This means that, without doubt, he will be required to transfer a significant amount of energy behind the bridle and then use that energy powerfully on a course with an uphill finish, fending off a strong team of runners intent on stalking the pace and pouncing late. Even if it can be said that Trifolium possesses the raw ability to achieve this, can it be said with confidence that he possesses the physicality to do so?

Dodging Bullets is equally complicated. To date he has been something of a warm-up act, showcasing his talents early in each season before making way for the headline acts in March and April. The question is whether this is related to an inability to cope with the physical demands of high class races. It is possible that he struggles for some reason in the Spring or that he finds it difficult to retain condition and strength when being trained during time away from the track. Following the 2013 Supreme Novices Hurdle (beaten 50L) and the Mersey Novices Hurdle (beaten 63L) Dodging Bullets was reported to have bled from the nose (use search facility) termed Epistaxis (EIPH) and related to problems with blood capillaries rupturing in the lungs. Following his hard race in the 2012 Triumph Hurdle (creditable fourth place) he was beaten 34L at Aintree although badly hampered at the fifth hurdle. That issue may have been related to general inexperience (mentality) as following his win this season at the Open Meeting in November his trainer admitted that: "He's come from being what I would call a wound-up flat horse to a more relaxed jumper - there's always been a bit of an issue with him mentally, but physically he's grown up a lot". Paul Nicholls can, quite rightly, be enthusiastic about his horses performing well, citing Dodging Bullets as having come back "a different horse" this season. Whether he has or not it is these strands of physicality that combine to produce the slightly peculiar profile of this horse. But that he has ability is not in doubt.

Dodging Bullets has always held a slightly elevated official rating, which is not his fault. Many were caught in the "form storm" of that rating prior to the Supreme Novices Hurdle but were undone by his unknown physical issue(s). His run behind Darlan in the Christmas Hurdle did not aid a balanced view of his potential: Darlan was a possible superstar yet Countrywide Flame fairly limited in open company elite terms. Nonetheless he has overall displayed enough residual class over hurdles to be considered as a potentially potent Arkle Chase opponent. His trainer's "different horse" comment is borne out by what must have been a productive summer of conditioning and maturation given that he was readied to begin his season in mid-October. The first half of the season campaign was clearly well planned with three runs culminating in the feature Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton over Christmas. Having mastered all three five-runner fields the obvious question loomed large: would he take in a prep run (went to the Supreme fresh last season); and what will be the effect of a sharp increase in the physical demands placed upon him when contesting a Championship event over fences.

Blood or Thunder? Dodging Bullets must prove his physicality can withstand the internal pressure engineered by a Festival race

Whatever those answers are, it is wise to not be blinded by his previous failures. He has actually been impressive in his three victories but it has to be taken into account they were achieved in a similar manner. At Kempton on debut (16f, Good) he jumped left at times but he travelled smoothly and although his reins were shaken often enough after three out to before the last this wasn't a complete transfer of energy and therefore did not result in a switch behind the bridle. It was a stretching out of his "on" bridle capacity and in that sense he answered every call and outclassed his opposition.

At Cheltenham it was similar although if anything he was stronger with his "on" bridle range, perhaps owing to the appealing downhill section whereafter he was given a target into the race by Raya Star. He outjumped and travelled past that rival easily and when shaken up with a crack of the whip to get racing up the hill he pulled further away. He had been a touch keen early on (until after the second fence), with his jockey confirming that it had been the fastest pace his horse had been asked to race at; as such some of his jumps were a little inefficient (too big) and a couple of landings a bit unbalanced but he was unaffected by any of it overall and this effort was fully within his comfort zone. His trainer was enthused but already thinking ahead (as ever), wanting to run him over Christmas but equally saying: "I won't run him on bad ground". He appeared next on soft ground at Kempton, so bad ground would need defining. That race was effectively a practice session as his main rival, Grandouet, set off quickly from the front, jumping boldly and inevitably tiring from his uneven energy distribution in unsuitable ground. Dodging Bullets again jumped notably left at the first fence (as he had done on debut) and often drifted left from there on in, raising the possibility that he was feeling or beginning to feel something physically. It may also be a simple preference or that the soft ground that had concerned his trainer originally was not to his liking - his previous two chase victories were on good ground.

"Bad ground" then defined Newbury in February where he was, perhaps surprisingly, asked to run in the Game Spirit Chase. The race confirmed the analytical suspicions relating to his transfer of energy behind the bridle - it was minimal when required. He travelled well again but in a stalking fashion: it was clear that his jockey knew he had to hold on to his horse and let him work as much as possible in his comfort zone. He did this well but over the last his main rival, Module, had already switched behind the bridle and although headed early on the run to the line, his greater reserves of energy behind the bridle saw him power past Dodging Bullets whose own finishing effort was relatively tame. The point will rightly be made about better ground helping a horse with Dodging Bullets' qualities but what the analysis suggests is that better ground will not help the horse change his energy distribution system and the Arkle will likely stretch out the "on" aspect of his bridle ratio. Aintree will suit his physicality a lot more.

The previous episodes of Epistaxis (EIPH) are a genuine concern and the physical manner of his defeat in the Game Spirit Chase underlines a curve of energy distribution that strongly favours the "on" part of his ratio. The visual style of his performances in chases to date can potentially support a view that he is quite high class but equally it has to be considered that the way in which he distributes his energy generally and specifically the lack of power he is able to transfer behind the bridle under pressure will not help his effort at Cheltenham.

Grandouet is rarely synchronised with the National Hunt calendar or the racing world generally. He has his own set of timings and desires. Potentially out of the top drawer, yet so infrequently consenting to show it - a combination as likely to fail as succeed in a Festival environment. The fundamental considerations to bear in mind regarding Grandouet are located here. This season he has posed a test to his trainer's art: softly-softly or pitched into the best of contests and his trainer has unequivocally opted for the latter. Defeated twice by Hinterland, the latter of those contests was a stinging, high class duel that left the highly promising JLT Novices Chase prospect Taquin De Seuil gasping for air back in third. As on debut, what has perhaps been surprising is how Grandouet has been unable to sustain his "on" bridle aspect deep enough into the race. Over hurdles he was an exceptional stalker, always looking for cover where possible and cruising until the last moment possible. Over fences this kind of On/Behind bridle ratio has been stretched out: he is still keen and a little headstrong in the early phases but it may just transpire that he is expending precious energy when jumping fences even though he is jumping them well in the main. He may also require - or have already undertaken - a breathing operation of some kind. The stated intention to not have a prep run may have something to do with that but even if not the key to his performance is his physicality and training programme.

Rally: Grandouet (right) ceded over a length to Hinterland after the last but, with an uphill finish, fought back to register a narrow defeat in this season's premier UK Arkle Chase trial

That is because his race transitions are not as smooth as one would expect of such a strong travelling hurdler. Admittedly his first two novice chases were hot affairs - Paul Nicholls had Hinterland ready and firing and with that the advantage of jumping experience. Nonetheless, Grandouet appears to struggle to transfer his energy smoothly behind the bridle. Over fences, so far, he goes through a stage at the boiling point of a race whereby his "on" bridle energy has taken him into contention but he cannot transfer his remaining power behind the bridle instantly, so he 'dips' slightly in this phase and any top class novice prospect can take advantage of that, as Hinterland did.

The Wayward Lad Novices Chase was symptomatic of this but perhaps more so of a breathing issue. This cannot be known for sure but the run was "interesting" in that he was asked to race on winter soft ground and to run quite hard from the front against a clearly talented rival. There had to have been little expectation of him being able to sustain his effort and the way he tired two out but then kept on indicated either a slight breathing issue, a lack of hard conditioning (referred to in the earlier link), or both. Campaigned differently he could have feasibly won three weak contests but then we, and his connections, would know relatively little about him in this division. He is capable of galloping comfortably at any pace that will be offered presumably by Champagne Fever (leading) and Trifolium (tracking) and he certainly possesses the residual class to win this contest. What Cheltenham will allow him to do is something that Sandown and Kempton never did: the chance to get a breather and "fill up" on the descent to two out, a section of the course where, in the International Hurdle of 2011, he was at his most impressive. But in saying that it cannot be overlooked that his Sandown conqueror Hinterland has the same if not slightly better tools to complete the job, looking a more straightforward proposition analytically.

Hinterland, however, is attempting "something of a Simonsig", having had only two runs in the space of four weeks (Simonsig's two runs came six days apart) and potentially going to the race "fresh". Hinterland bled when he ran at Wolverhampton in January last year and because he "wasn't right" he was put away for the spring and summer and given a wind operation. Thought to be potentially "classy" he was auditioned for a customarily ambitious career path from the very start, winning a Grade Two Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham on his first start in this county (17f, Good to Soft). He was then beaten twice in good company, skipped the Festival, and fell in the Grade One Juvenile Hurdle race at Aintree won by Grumeti. Still only four years of age, he confirmed his progress over the summer with a resounding win in a Limited Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow whereafter he was switched to fences for a novice chase campaign. He ran three times on steadily softer ground in generally strong company but each time his performance suggested all was not well physically and, despite a close but non-threatening third to Captain Conan in the Grade One Henry VIII Chase at Sandown, he could not register a win before bleeding during a Jumper's Bumper confirmed his season was over.

Too much, too soon, perhaps. Yet still, this season, Paul Nicholls has admitted to having his eye on the Queen Mother Champion Chase (if Sprinter Sacre were absent), not something the connections of any other runners would conceivably ponder. Al Ferof, for the same trainer, ran in strong open company with great credit for a novice in the Grade One Victor Chandler Chase but the inference of high residual class is not always enough on its own to emerge victorious. Hinterland's Arkle credentials from this season are classical in many ways: he has handled soft and good ground, competed at a strong pace over two miles, jumped adequately (can drill through the tops of fences and Grandouet jumped much more cleanly than him in their races together), travelled powerfully, and shown resolution when driven uphill at the finish. For all Grandouet's unpredictability he was capable of being an open company Grade One hurdler (Grade Two winner) and so far Hinterland has travelled better than him, for longer than him, and beaten him twice. It is a very high level of running ability and a demonstration of his ability to handle the kind of race transitions that undo so many Arkle Chase runners.

In terms of physicality his wind operation, like so many, has been a success (for now) although the bleeding on his fourth chase start last season has probably tempered any plans to give him more experience. His energy distribution appears to be even and tailored for his target race. Hinterland probably has one short burst of acceleration in his races once asked to transfer his energy but then is capable of staying on resolutely behind the bridle. One of the areas of concern in that respect - his available energy after injecting his pace into the contest - stems from the fact that to date he has "barrelled" quite a lot of his fences. At Sandown in the Henry VIII Chase this almost caused a significant landing problem but his jockey was able to reorganise his reins without losing momentum. However, if continually drilling through the top of his fences with his girth it will dilute his running power once asked to transfer his energy behind the bridle; it may only be a marginal impact but once setting off on the uphill climb having gone at Festival pace for the first time in his career, it could arguably prove his undoing. Cleaner jumping would make him one of the likeliest winners of this race.

Elevation: Hinterland travels powerfully through his races but needs to get higher at his fences

And the one they will all be stalking is CHAMPAGNE FEVER. In that sense, as noted earlier, little has changed from before the season started. He earned a rating of 157 after winning the 2013 Supreme Novices Hurdle by beating the now 167-rated My Tent Or Yours with Jezki back in third. It was a run that conveyed a quite sublime level of residual class over a trip widely perceived to be less than optimal. He won because he is very good, but also because he had the best energy distribution curve of the three market leaders. The contention before the race was that he would "stay the trip thoroughly" and reference to his potentially abundant stamina (on breeding) was never far away. Yet he won the race with the help of his jockey by controlling his energy distribution using outstanding tactical pace under the circumstances. Being able to bound off strongly in front, amenable to being slowed down for breathers, pressing on, steadying, and all the while travelling with the kind of menace often attributed to "pure" two milers until rounding the final bend. It is true that he is not a "pure" two miler but neither is he built in the strapping three mile chaser mode that reference to him "getting any trip" might imply. He has an athletic build that facilitates crucial pace change-ups and that has been matched at the last two Festivals by a strong mentality. After rounding the final bend in the Supreme Novices Hurdle he was shaken up completely by his jockey to begin the transfer of energy behind the bridle. Yet he kept galloping at such a pace that although his pursuers closed him down and, briefly, one of them headed him, he was then able to race with power from behind the bridle to reclaim the lead and pull away slightly for victory. It was an exhibition of elite class race transitions.

Neck Stretch: Head down having led a high quality field for nearly two miles, Champagne Fever (grey) finds more power behind the bridle than his pursuers

The Racing Post Novice Chase that caught the imagination of so many was in the process of being a similar affair, only over fences it looks more dramatic. The ability to run from the front that fast and to do it easily or within the comfort zone whilst maintaining jumping accuracy (until two out) is rare. It was reminiscent of Sizing Europe and Mad Max in the 2010 Arkle itself and it is interesting to note that Sizing Europe, despite having the stamina to see out over two and half miles strongly, was either tying up on the run to the line (lack of energy) or idling but his advantage was reduced on the run to the line by a staying-on Somersby. As noted elsewhere, what Champagne Fever was doing easily was more of an effort and more demanding for Defy Logic and, for different reasons, Trifolium. Had his jockey allowed it, Champagne Fever could have pressed on at either point where Defy Logic made slight mistakes (ATR Replay: Fence 5, ~2m00s; and Fence 9, ~3m00s) using his tactical pace to pressure his rival before slowing and going again, whereby Defy Logic would have been clearly behind him. As it was he was held on to whilst his galloping partner rejoined the front line and that horse took full advantage of an over-ambitious leap to jump into the lead and gallop away for victory. He would burst blood vessels on his next start, potentially indicating the extent of the effort involved for him in this race.

Champagne Fever's trainer is content to suggest his horse is a three mile chaser in the making, that "he would get any trip", despite four of his Grade One runs to date being over 17f or less, with the other at 18f. That kind of suggestion is something his trainer is fond of generally but whilst it is certainly possible at this stage of his career there is nothing to suggest either in his physicality or mentality that increased distance is desirable. Champagne Fever is not a big, bruising chaser and his enthusiastic mentality is given free reign by his high levels of residual class, allowing him the option to dominate his opponents from the front. In that respect it can be noted how his physicality closely resembles that of Cue Card, who would have won an average Arkle Chase easily and was only denied in his year by one of the best two mile chasers of recent times. Champagne Fever may take in another run but so long as that run is satisfactory overall it will do little to alter the stunning overall profile he has developed for this race. Unlike last year where Simonsig was the only viable candidate for the race, the structural depth of the division this season is understandably deeper. If Champagne Fever's mentality betrays him at any point, the analysis suggests that the Henry VIII Sandown duo will be more than willing to run him down.