Though nature be ever so generous, yet can she not make a hero alone. Fortune must contribute her part too; and till both concur, the work cannot be perfected
- François de La Rochefoucauld
Prior to this season nature and fortune had worked to create equine perfection; then fortune departed. Sprinter Sacre won all ten of his contests over fences by a cumulative 128 lengths all in breathtaking fashion or near enough. His absence from the race gives normal elite horses their chance to win this contest.
Although he has beaten the race favourite earlier in the season, Kid Cassidy has yet to join the elite ranks owing to the fact that he has yet to replicate that level of run - he was tailed off in the Grade One Dial-A-Bet Chase won by Benefficient on his next start. His defeat of Sire De Grugy in receipt of ten pounds was still a notable effort from a horse that had finished second in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at last season's Festival (17f, Soft). His overall profile suggests that his win had a lot to do with the conditions and aspects of his opponent's performance, which are covered below. He obviously has the talent to run well for a long way.
It is perhaps indicative of the power of the stable in which the super-elite Sprinter Sacre is housed that, with Simonsig also sitting out the season, there is an available understudy with the class of Captain Conan. He is a big, strapping horse with a lot of size and power for a two-miler, not unlike Arvika Ligeonniere. He enjoyed a prolonged, successful novice chase season where from five starts his only defeat came over the 20f distance of the Jewson Novices Chase, moving like the best horse in the race for a long way until a lack of stamina after the last left him defeated. Prior to that he had beaten Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham, beaten Hinterland at Sandown and perhaps fortuitously caught Third Intention over 21f on heavy ground again at Sandown - the race that gave rise to concerns about being able to sustain his class over extended distances. He showed no signs of distress after Cheltenham to win easily on good ground over 20f at Aintree, although the opposition was moderate. Four Graded novice race victories, three of them Grade Ones, left him primed for his transition into open company.
As is so often the case with horses of large physical size, the stress of racing does not always marry well with nature's plan of maturation and growth. Problems often arise and this season Captain Conan has raced only once when seven lengths behind Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek Chase (16f, Good), again running well for a long way. His trainer recently stated clearly that there had been problems with "low potassium levels" but whether this was as a result of treatment for other issues is unclear. In terms of winning a Queen Mother Champion Chase having not raced for over three months, his physicality is obviously compromised. It has to be taken on trust that the physical problems have been resolved, that the stress of racing will not lead to a recurrence and affect his race performance and, of course, that he is conditioned enough in elite terms to do much more than "go deep" in a race of this nature. Captain Conan possesses the requisite elite characteristics for this contest but time may prove that he will benefit from another summer of physical development before realising the levels of residual class that loiter in his profile. His two main rivals, for example, have accumulated nine chase starts between them this season, an indication of their own physical robustness and health so far.
Sire De Grugy has been a revelation, winning four of his five chase starts this term. He has not escaped physical problems either, suffering a broken pelvis in the winter of his novice chase season, a hairline fracture specifically. His connections ran out of time in their bid to prepare him fully for the Grade One Maghull Novices Chase but he showed the benefit of being back racing and working by winning easily at Stratford and then claiming the Grade Two Celebration Chase on good ground at the end of the season, all three of those runs coming in the same month, April, revealing a measure of mental and physical tenacity.
Top class horses handle almost any ground and Sire De Grugy's last two races show his desire this season to master all conditions, winning the Grade One Clarence House Chase effortlessly at Ascot on heavy ground and, prior to that, winning the Desert Orchid Chase (Sprinter Sacre pulled up) on soft ground at Kempton. "Effortlessly" is probably the wrong adjective. Sire De Grugy is not from the mould of fluid, strong travelling, glide-jumpers that often predominate in this division. For sure he has aspects of those features in his armoury but overall he gives the impression of having to work to show his excellence. He often sits off the pace in his races and his jumping - as will be pointed to below - is not always the most accurate. He obviously travels well but not for prolonged periods and his race transitions are less fluid than might be expected. In short he can appear to expend a lot of energy through his races, which makes the way in which he finishes them so strongly quite remarkable.
The one time he was caught out - the sole defeat in his last seven races - appears to have given rise to a peculiar but widespread statement that "he doesn't like Cheltenham". Given that this Shloer Chase race aside he had only raced at the track once before going down by only 2L to now-fellow Champion Chase contender Captain Conan on his second start over fences, that statement rests entirely on one performance, which is analytically odd. Not least because, although defeated, his run at Cheltenham (16f, Good) was actually impressive. For whatever reason that day Sire De Grugy did not appear able to gain traction on the surface at some of his fences and the runners were notably kicking the top off the turf. He gave the appearance of slipping as he propelled himself forward towards some of his fences, causing him to not take off from exactly where he wanted to and meaning that he felt the need to reach out his front legs for extra forward momentum. There may have been a light shower on the day; it could have been something more random but he was not at his most comfortable, which is where the impression of "not liking" the course may have arisen from.
Grip It: Only Sire De Grugy appeared to struggle with the surface at Cheltenham, nearly slipping over and unshipping his jockey after the fourth fence
Reaching: The front legs are thrust out early, indicative of reaching out to generate more distance, like a long-jumper. Reaching can require the use of more energy than usual
Almost: For a horse that it is suggested "does not like" the racecourse Sire De Grugy is leading and clear just 150 yards from the finish
With all that he was giving away ten pounds to the talented Kid Cassidy. It was a tremendous effort for an early season affair and he has not looked back since. Sire De Grugy was authoritative at Sandown in the Tingle Creek Chase (16f, Good) but again what was impressive was that despite dropping energy and momentum with poor jumps across all three railway fences - he barged through the second of them - he was still able to command relatively large amounts of energy deep into the race, powering away up the hill to win by four lengths. The extent to which he is able to summon significant amounts of energy from both the "On" and "Behind" aspects of his bridle ratio makes him a formidable opponent over two miles this season and whilst it would be no surprise to see him win this contest decisively he will need to concentrate his jumping mind because errors of momentum are likely to be punished here more than they have before.
ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE's chance may actually have been better had Sprinter Sacre turned up for the race. As with Captain Conan, Arvika Ligeonniere is a big, strapping two mile chaser with a powerful, ground devouring gallop potential. He would have benefitted the most from Sprinter Sacre's energy sapping pace, whilst Sprinter Sacre himself would have been at his most vulnerable in this race, effectively a first chase start of the season had he turned up.
When classy horses have a large frame to use a lot of their earlier career form has to be placed in the context of a physicality that is far from complete, more so than horses of lesser size. With an immature frame the task of running fast over two miles or further in soft or deep ground can have a taxing effect on the body. This is most likely what has transpired with Arvika Ligeonniere but seemingly by coincidence his third start on each of the last two seasons has been left- rather than right-handed and it is on his third start where he is most likely to be feeling the effects of his previous races. In his novice chase season his third race came in the space of seven weeks and he fell in the Irish Arkle Novices Chase won by Benefficient, something that is probably closely linked with his no-show in the Arkle at Cheltenham on his next start. None of that had any lasting effect, however, as he won the Grade One Ryanair Chase at Punchestown comprehensively that April.
Stepping into open company he was assigned his first two races on decent ground over 20f, winning the Clonmel Oil Chase comfortably despite a couple of slight mistakes and then winning the Grade One John Durkan Chase easily following the departure of Sir Des Champs early on. This time his third race came in the space of six weeks and again it can be argued that it was his most demanding race physically. His connections may have been aware of this as for some reason he was held up in rear for the early stages of the race; his jockey reported afterwards that this did not benefit a horse that is a strong galloping type. As such, his horse was asked to use his energy in a different way, to make ground from rear and then race proper, rather than using his energy more evenly in a way that hitherto had complimented his natural rhythm of prominent, powerful galloping momentum. He did everything right but could not match the winner and it was again Benefficient who profited (Hidden Cyclone second). Significant analytically is that after the last fence Arvika Ligeonniere could do nothing to affect the other two horses but that was precisely because he had been held up in rear through the early and mid stages of the race and from there also he could do nothing to affect the bridle ratios of those in front of him. Unable to impose any of his own qualities on the contest he was effectively a hostage in the race regardless of whether he was physically sharp enough to win.
Powerglide: Arvika Ligeonniere may now have realised the full armoury of his physical potential
He resumed his upward curve with an emphatic display in the Tied Cottage Chase, travelling powerfully close to the leader and effortlessly extending away. Reflecting on his only defeat of the season his jockey and later his trainer too relayed how things would be done differently at Cheltenham, confirming in their own minds at least that he was not used to best effect when beaten. This in all likelihood means that Arvika Ligeonniere will be making the running or tracking the leader closely and pressing his physical and class advantage early in the race, applying pressure to those in behind. If that is the case he will have the perfect jockey to effect a front-running, tactically adept race in which he can finally deliver on the promise of his considerable athletic prowess.
Although he has beaten the race favourite earlier in the season, Kid Cassidy has yet to join the elite ranks owing to the fact that he has yet to replicate that level of run - he was tailed off in the Grade One Dial-A-Bet Chase won by Benefficient on his next start. His defeat of Sire De Grugy in receipt of ten pounds was still a notable effort from a horse that had finished second in the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at last season's Festival (17f, Soft). His overall profile suggests that his win had a lot to do with the conditions and aspects of his opponent's performance, which are covered below. He obviously has the talent to run well for a long way.
It is perhaps indicative of the power of the stable in which the super-elite Sprinter Sacre is housed that, with Simonsig also sitting out the season, there is an available understudy with the class of Captain Conan. He is a big, strapping horse with a lot of size and power for a two-miler, not unlike Arvika Ligeonniere. He enjoyed a prolonged, successful novice chase season where from five starts his only defeat came over the 20f distance of the Jewson Novices Chase, moving like the best horse in the race for a long way until a lack of stamina after the last left him defeated. Prior to that he had beaten Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham, beaten Hinterland at Sandown and perhaps fortuitously caught Third Intention over 21f on heavy ground again at Sandown - the race that gave rise to concerns about being able to sustain his class over extended distances. He showed no signs of distress after Cheltenham to win easily on good ground over 20f at Aintree, although the opposition was moderate. Four Graded novice race victories, three of them Grade Ones, left him primed for his transition into open company.
As is so often the case with horses of large physical size, the stress of racing does not always marry well with nature's plan of maturation and growth. Problems often arise and this season Captain Conan has raced only once when seven lengths behind Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek Chase (16f, Good), again running well for a long way. His trainer recently stated clearly that there had been problems with "low potassium levels" but whether this was as a result of treatment for other issues is unclear. In terms of winning a Queen Mother Champion Chase having not raced for over three months, his physicality is obviously compromised. It has to be taken on trust that the physical problems have been resolved, that the stress of racing will not lead to a recurrence and affect his race performance and, of course, that he is conditioned enough in elite terms to do much more than "go deep" in a race of this nature. Captain Conan possesses the requisite elite characteristics for this contest but time may prove that he will benefit from another summer of physical development before realising the levels of residual class that loiter in his profile. His two main rivals, for example, have accumulated nine chase starts between them this season, an indication of their own physical robustness and health so far.
Sire De Grugy has been a revelation, winning four of his five chase starts this term. He has not escaped physical problems either, suffering a broken pelvis in the winter of his novice chase season, a hairline fracture specifically. His connections ran out of time in their bid to prepare him fully for the Grade One Maghull Novices Chase but he showed the benefit of being back racing and working by winning easily at Stratford and then claiming the Grade Two Celebration Chase on good ground at the end of the season, all three of those runs coming in the same month, April, revealing a measure of mental and physical tenacity.
Top class horses handle almost any ground and Sire De Grugy's last two races show his desire this season to master all conditions, winning the Grade One Clarence House Chase effortlessly at Ascot on heavy ground and, prior to that, winning the Desert Orchid Chase (Sprinter Sacre pulled up) on soft ground at Kempton. "Effortlessly" is probably the wrong adjective. Sire De Grugy is not from the mould of fluid, strong travelling, glide-jumpers that often predominate in this division. For sure he has aspects of those features in his armoury but overall he gives the impression of having to work to show his excellence. He often sits off the pace in his races and his jumping - as will be pointed to below - is not always the most accurate. He obviously travels well but not for prolonged periods and his race transitions are less fluid than might be expected. In short he can appear to expend a lot of energy through his races, which makes the way in which he finishes them so strongly quite remarkable.
The one time he was caught out - the sole defeat in his last seven races - appears to have given rise to a peculiar but widespread statement that "he doesn't like Cheltenham". Given that this Shloer Chase race aside he had only raced at the track once before going down by only 2L to now-fellow Champion Chase contender Captain Conan on his second start over fences, that statement rests entirely on one performance, which is analytically odd. Not least because, although defeated, his run at Cheltenham (16f, Good) was actually impressive. For whatever reason that day Sire De Grugy did not appear able to gain traction on the surface at some of his fences and the runners were notably kicking the top off the turf. He gave the appearance of slipping as he propelled himself forward towards some of his fences, causing him to not take off from exactly where he wanted to and meaning that he felt the need to reach out his front legs for extra forward momentum. There may have been a light shower on the day; it could have been something more random but he was not at his most comfortable, which is where the impression of "not liking" the course may have arisen from.
Grip It: Only Sire De Grugy appeared to struggle with the surface at Cheltenham, nearly slipping over and unshipping his jockey after the fourth fence
Reaching: The front legs are thrust out early, indicative of reaching out to generate more distance, like a long-jumper. Reaching can require the use of more energy than usual
Almost: For a horse that it is suggested "does not like" the racecourse Sire De Grugy is leading and clear just 150 yards from the finish
With all that he was giving away ten pounds to the talented Kid Cassidy. It was a tremendous effort for an early season affair and he has not looked back since. Sire De Grugy was authoritative at Sandown in the Tingle Creek Chase (16f, Good) but again what was impressive was that despite dropping energy and momentum with poor jumps across all three railway fences - he barged through the second of them - he was still able to command relatively large amounts of energy deep into the race, powering away up the hill to win by four lengths. The extent to which he is able to summon significant amounts of energy from both the "On" and "Behind" aspects of his bridle ratio makes him a formidable opponent over two miles this season and whilst it would be no surprise to see him win this contest decisively he will need to concentrate his jumping mind because errors of momentum are likely to be punished here more than they have before.
ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE's chance may actually have been better had Sprinter Sacre turned up for the race. As with Captain Conan, Arvika Ligeonniere is a big, strapping two mile chaser with a powerful, ground devouring gallop potential. He would have benefitted the most from Sprinter Sacre's energy sapping pace, whilst Sprinter Sacre himself would have been at his most vulnerable in this race, effectively a first chase start of the season had he turned up.
When classy horses have a large frame to use a lot of their earlier career form has to be placed in the context of a physicality that is far from complete, more so than horses of lesser size. With an immature frame the task of running fast over two miles or further in soft or deep ground can have a taxing effect on the body. This is most likely what has transpired with Arvika Ligeonniere but seemingly by coincidence his third start on each of the last two seasons has been left- rather than right-handed and it is on his third start where he is most likely to be feeling the effects of his previous races. In his novice chase season his third race came in the space of seven weeks and he fell in the Irish Arkle Novices Chase won by Benefficient, something that is probably closely linked with his no-show in the Arkle at Cheltenham on his next start. None of that had any lasting effect, however, as he won the Grade One Ryanair Chase at Punchestown comprehensively that April.
Stepping into open company he was assigned his first two races on decent ground over 20f, winning the Clonmel Oil Chase comfortably despite a couple of slight mistakes and then winning the Grade One John Durkan Chase easily following the departure of Sir Des Champs early on. This time his third race came in the space of six weeks and again it can be argued that it was his most demanding race physically. His connections may have been aware of this as for some reason he was held up in rear for the early stages of the race; his jockey reported afterwards that this did not benefit a horse that is a strong galloping type. As such, his horse was asked to use his energy in a different way, to make ground from rear and then race proper, rather than using his energy more evenly in a way that hitherto had complimented his natural rhythm of prominent, powerful galloping momentum. He did everything right but could not match the winner and it was again Benefficient who profited (Hidden Cyclone second). Significant analytically is that after the last fence Arvika Ligeonniere could do nothing to affect the other two horses but that was precisely because he had been held up in rear through the early and mid stages of the race and from there also he could do nothing to affect the bridle ratios of those in front of him. Unable to impose any of his own qualities on the contest he was effectively a hostage in the race regardless of whether he was physically sharp enough to win.
Powerglide: Arvika Ligeonniere may now have realised the full armoury of his physical potential
He resumed his upward curve with an emphatic display in the Tied Cottage Chase, travelling powerfully close to the leader and effortlessly extending away. Reflecting on his only defeat of the season his jockey and later his trainer too relayed how things would be done differently at Cheltenham, confirming in their own minds at least that he was not used to best effect when beaten. This in all likelihood means that Arvika Ligeonniere will be making the running or tracking the leader closely and pressing his physical and class advantage early in the race, applying pressure to those in behind. If that is the case he will have the perfect jockey to effect a front-running, tactically adept race in which he can finally deliver on the promise of his considerable athletic prowess.
No comments:
Post a Comment