2013 Arkle Chase: Review

A comfortable win for Simonsig - beating Baily Green by 2.25L (17f G/S) - but not in the manner expected.

The poorest quality Arkle Chase in terms of depth since Tidal Bay's easy win in 2008. From the beginning of the season only one horse could be identified as having the sufficient residual class to win the Arkle (from a betting perspective this structural occurrence will be discussed in the second part of The Value Myth).

Most likely as a result of a physical ailment, Simonsig decided to forego his previous composure and refused to settle. He jumped adequately until the ninth but even when ploughing through that fence he didn't pause and immediately moved onto the haunches of the leader, indicative of a desire to keep running regardless of circumstances: his trainer diagnosed a dirty scope post-race as evidence of his horse "running away" from something ailing him. He certainly ran to the front well enough and never looked in danger of being caught but the fact that the limited Baily Green (lost his first seven chase starts) was able to hang on to his shadow reveals just how much energy Simonsig had used up unevenly (unnaturally) before the latter stages, where he was urged and rousted along to the line. For a horse that has an abundance of sheer speed - he is the only horse allowed, on occasion, to work with Sprinter Sacre and was seriously considered for the Champion Hurdle prior to being committed to the Arkle - there was never really a point at which he displayed his marquee attributes. Some analysts have raised the spectre of this run being round about as good as he is over fences but such a view has little substantive worth, akin to the 'rumours' of Simonsig being unable to jump fences properly at the very time he was being far too flamboyant over them at home. In races with adequate depth and the prospect of sincere rivalry it is unwise to foreground comments from connections; this is not such a race: Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson were at pains to point out in equal measure both their relief at having won the big race and the raw disappointment of a performance a long way below what they had expected (and to an extent that which he had shown over Christmas and the previous season in the Neptune Novices Hurdle).

Once again therefore we are reminded of the strong emphasis placed on physical soundness and preparation at the Festival: Simonsig had not raced for two and half months; his skeletal infrastructure and oxygen pathways had not been broken down so as to guarantee rebuilding and recovery to elite level strength for the task at hand. Many lesser animals have wilted as a result although few would have contested a weaker championship race than this one. Nonetheless the race was unsatisfactory and the structure of Simonsig's running characteristics are still to be revealed in full: stepping into open company his physical robustness will be tested far more than it was in his novice season. He will have to run hard at a more even pace for longer against better horses and jump accurately in so doing for his winning record to match up to the high levels of residual class. He is perhaps most closely matched to Cue Card in terms of character and they could well meet on the Ryanair runway in March.

In some ways extraordinarily, Overturn was constantly referred to as either the strongest challenger or the likeliest winner, a thought process that from the outset was entangled in its own one-dimensionality. The Arkle Chase ruthlessly exposes any attributes that are not designed for an elite national hunt assignment over fences that relents in neither pace or intensity for over two miles. It was therefore a somewhat strange but not uncommon leap of faith to infer that a horse with 37 career starts prior to jumping a fence would be capable of transforming its physical and technical capabilities to meet the demands of the hardest race of the season. Overturn's performance was not surprising (beaten 30L) but the lack of basic questioning from racing media outlets of why a now jack-of-all-trades would win the most prestigious novice chasing event was little short of incredible. The high-end media prominence and marketability of the horse's trainer, rather than actual racing aspects, no doubt explains the situation. On the track, Overturn failed to really dominate Conquisto until passing the two mile pole at Doncaster (19f) and Tetlami never went a yard at Musselburgh. Both are handicappers and that is where Overturn's rating of 150 will lead him also.

Following his heroic effort Baily Green was pulled up at Aintree and beaten sixty lengths at Punchestown but had enjoyed a fruitful season before stepping up in class.

Arvika Ligeonniere displays some residual class. He has a lot of size with the build of a three miler but already an eight year old that size brings about physical fragility which has now been exposed twice at the Festival. He had also displayed a tendency to run with the choke out leaving him vulnerable in races where the opposition do not fade away. Away from the Festival his power, class and ability in deep ground make him a force in Irish contests over a variety of trips.

Running away? Simonsig finds more when required in the Arkle Chase

2013 Champion Hurdle: Review

A good if not particularly strong renewal won decisively at the line by Hurricane Fly, beating Rock On Ruby 2.5L (17f G/S).

A stirring achievement showcasing resilience, heart, class and desire as Hurricane Fly became the first horse since Comedy Of Errors to regain a Champion Hurdle title. A subdued performance last year saw him 5.5L behind Rock On Ruby but that was turned around despite looking less than comfortable along the far side of the course. Hurricane Fly's class is evident from his race record but it is his durability that is perhaps his most defining and enduring characteristic, resisting a prominent series of minor training niggles throughout his career to cement his place in two mile hurdling history at the age of nine.

Perhaps because of his impressive race record Hurricane Fly is often mis-diagnosed as a strong travelling two miler with a lethal turn of foot. Yet these oft-cited characteristics have been evident barely at all at the Cheltenham Festival over the last three years. Quite clearly his elite level attributes are of a different kind. The confusion comes from the manner of his victories in Ireland (particularly early on in his novice season) where he outclasses opponents to such an extent that he appears visually to be 'cruising' and therefore 'quickening' when moving to the front but closer inspection reveals a different kind of star and one no less superior because of it. Interestingly his first start in Graded company after arriving from France denoted the style of his runs many years later at Cheltenham: "Chased leaders, 4th halfway, closer in 3rd 2 out, challenged travelling well before last where narrowly led, ridden and strongly pressed run-in, kept on well under pressure" to win by a neck. His next two starts have defined him ever since: they are the only two races where he earns the analytical comment 'quickened' from the Racing Post in-running comments. In those two races he annihilates novice opposition yet following that 2008/9 season the comment disappears completely. His next five starts are effectively a match against Solwhit, losing the first and winning the next four cemented by Champion Hurdle glory. The physical dynamics of those races have rarely been built into the profile of the horse but the most obvious points of note have in any case been laid bare by the subsequent performances of, and race distances attempted by, the vanquished.

Go Native beaten by 10L, then Kempes by 7L. No doubt about the extremely high level of residual class on display but analytically Go Native 'folded' somewhat with the physical problem displayed two starts previously (later in the season he won the Supreme giving rise to the oft-quoted "he beat a Supreme winner ten lengths") and Kempes went on to be a three mile chaser, winning an Irish Hennessy over that distance on heavy ground. The infamous series of Solwhit showdowns are given their stamp by that horse dominating the three mile Championship events in the absence of Big Buck's. Solwhit had always been fully effective at 20f, beating the talented Neptune winner Fiveforthree in the Aintree Hurdle early in his career and he made Hurricane Fly race all the way to the line each time after his victory over him with the end result not always looking certain. Those staying battles over 16f and once over 20f prepared Hurricane Fly well for his Champion Hurdle glory where he again faced horses more effective over 20f+ than two miles. Peddler's Cross, Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars would all end up in a World Hurdle over three miles and even Menorah, in fifth, would attempt that distance over fences. There was no turn of foot from Hurricane Fly, his qualities were of a different kind. Most distinctively his high level of residual class allows him to gallop for a long time at an elite level pace. This is not a unique feature in a racehorse: Most notably Oscar Whisky also has this distinctive feature but Hurricane Fly is innately better than that animal (although it is perhaps surprising they never met in the Aintree Hurdle). With such searing speed when racing behind the bridle it is no surprise that there is little change in speed available once push comes to shove at the end of a race. In elite, top class contests both Hurricane Fly and Oscar Whisky have won races because they were the best horse in the race but they couldn't win by much because they couldn't accelerate once their sustained high-class gallop was no longer possible: they are not capable of a travel and quicken style (very few horses are) but they cruise and stay on to maintain an advantage as rivals run at them from behind the bridle. Analytically it is therefore unfortunate that Hurricane Fly has not been tested by an out and out two mile hurdler. He was well beaten by Rock On Ruby in the Champion Hurdle but unfortunately Hurricane Fly was not at his physical best after a continually interrupted season and in the re-match Rock On Ruby was given a slightly strange bullet-from-a-gun ride that saw him fighting his own lactic acid as early as when rounding the home bend, whereas the season prior he was exploding with forward momentum at the same point. The only other high class two mile speedster, Grandouet, fell when travelling easily at a fast pace, something Hurricane Fly was struggling to do at that stage.

Often-times racing is unsatisfactory and this is a case in point. Analysing the physicality of Hurricane Fly's running explains both what his own connections' view as slightly underwhelming winning efforts at the Cheltenham Festival (the style and verve of his wins have lacked the wow factor of Istabraq, for example) and why he hasn't beaten horses he 'should' essentially outclass  by very far,  explaining also why he is top-class without being imperious in a way Kauto Star or Big Buck's were. It is hard to fault connections for keeping him to easy contests in heavy ground when in Ireland - hardly any horses in training can match his residual class in deep ground over 2m - but it is surprising for a horse with such obvious stamina potential that he hasn't been allowed to contest something like the Aintree Hurdle (which Istabraq contested twice). His trainer has often talked of running in the French Champion Hurdle of around three miles which would suit his running style very well; in 2014 he will in all likelihood feature in a race against a number of high class two milers: it would have been nice to see that race when at the peak of his powers.

Rock on Ruby, in second, finished very close-up for a horse that had been asked to run a most uneven race in elite terms, staying on stoutly but in vain once his race was run. It appears that connections had for some reason become concerned about his ability to travel effectively through a championship race, most likely owing to the way in which Darlan was running all over him approaching the last hurdle at Doncaster. Darlan would have been another in the out-and-out two miler category had he survived the race: the way in which he destroyed the opposition at Kempton, the way he moved at Doncaster and the highest regard in which his stable held him had earmarked him as a potential superstar in the making. The application of blinkers to Rock On Ruby foretold what he was asked to do in the race itself but the question must still reside with his connections as to what race he could have run with a more even distribution of his energy reserves.

Countrywide Flame confirmed himself to be tough, classy and admirable. He lacks residual class at elite two mile level.

Grandouet was 'grabbing' at a couple of his hurdles including the one he fell at and a move to fences may yield the full potential of his physical growth from five to six. He would remain a ready-made Champion Hurdle contender should the need arise.

Zarkandar was again exposed at elite two mile pace on decent ground. He was finally given a more realistic assignment at Aintree, which he won.

Historic: Hurricane Fly regains the Champion Hurdle Crown

#Strategic7© i.

#Strategic7© #NH14

A project based on combining patience, flexibility and analysis. Ultimately a test of winner-finding skill, the project centres on the Cheltenham Festival but can incorporate any key Graded race along the way in a bid to accumulate all winners in one bet. The approach is underpinned by a very simple philosophy: the winners of top-end high class National Hunt Graded races are rarely ever a surprise and the physical and mental characteristics that are revealed by the winner through and after the race are accessible and identifiable just as much prior to the race. For a select number of races those characteristics can be evaluated a long way in advance owing to the specific high-class demands placed upon horses in order to win those events.

Six of the seven strategic races are therefore at the Cheltenham Festival with the seventh being the King George VI Chase. The latter is an obvious race to target: almost always the race is won by the horse with the highest level of residual class suited to the race distance regardless of ground and opponents. Horses are in effect targeted at the race anything up to eight months in advance allowing substantial assessment time.

The six Cheltenham Festival races are the Arkle Chase, the Champion Hurdle, the Ryanair Chase, the Queen Mother Champion Chase, the World Hurdle and the Gold Cup Chase. With the exception of the Arkle Chase the novice events are avoided for this project for obvious reasons:  they have their own structure which is no less accessible but requires a much deeper level of information that only reveals itself closer to the event. The Arkle Chase is, however, an excellent long-range analytical race.

Identifying the King George winner acts as a significant price accelerator for the Festival events. In theory any race winner(s) can act as an accelerator: other projects could see the King George as the culminating race following a Betfair Chase, Charlie Hall Chase or the popular Paddy Power Handicap Chase and so on but the #Strategic7 races are the most solid and consistent in terms of expected performance and repeatable factors.

The project has two core elements. The first is the skill of winner-finding. There is no place in the project for the flawed concept of 'value'. The task is to identify the winner of each race regardless of man-made abstractions because those winners will be permed together to generate large odds. Prices are therefore irrelevant also. What matters is the accumulation of big-race winners not a result from any one race in isolation (although that is obviously possible). Idealistically most of the races would require only one selection to keep accumulation perms to a minimum but whilst that is highly unlikely so also is the idea that including four or five selections for every race is acceptable: if it were that simple there would be no need for the skill of winner-finding. Nonetheless that skill is insufficient on its own in a sport that features elements of chance and misfortune giving rise to the second core element: perming.

At the 2013 Cheltenham Festival the idea behind #Strategic7 was trialled in a loose way: analytically strong but lacking serious structure. The World Hurdle was omitted until the day owing to the absence of the superstar, Big Buck's. Starting with the King George VI Chase the 'Super Six' yielded results of 11F11F. The winners came from strong analysis but the lack of structural rigour was laid bare in the races where the selections fell: they were the sole representatives and as such there was no back-up plan for misfortune or, more simply, an undesirable scenario despite plausible alternatives being available (at an added cost). Given how straightforward those two races were (both favourites won) there is no difficult or random reason why the Super Six did not yield a winning accumulation - it was simply a case of an approach not yet tested or polished. Nor does that infer that for #NH14 the #Strategic7 will simply be a case of tweaking a given set of criteria: the work remains hard, long and enjoyable but 2013 - including similar work in the Graded novice events - showed how with that work exceptional rewards become available. More to follow..

2013 Gold Cup: Review

An emphatic, top class winning performance from Bobs Worth, beating Sir Des Champs 7L (27f Soft).

Bobs Worth has a brilliant trainer and a superb jockey but the horse himself is of a rare kind of quality, becoming the first horse to equal Flyingbolt's record of winning three different festival races in consecutive years. Rain on the Friday turned the ground officially soft giving propulsion to murmurings that for a horse not built all that powerfully the ground could be a hinderance. It probably was, too, among other factors. Truly top class horses win on any ground and any type of track, however (excluding direction, which sometimes innate physical confirmation cannot overcome) and in winning so emphatically from a high class field Bobs Worth confirmed his level of residual class to be amongst the very highest in training.

Stamina, class and a mentally gruelling race with an uphill finish are the ingredients par excellence for this animal. He has his own style of racing which relies on high levels of class to travel through a race anywhere from the middle to near the front end and then a progressive wave of stamina that pours strength into the legs enabling him to finish his races supremely well. In the Hennessy he outclassed his rivals reflected by a smooth-progression curve through that race. At elite level, in the Gold Cup, he was asked his first really big question: could he find running power, composure and accuracy at the same time as top class horses moved away from him slightly. Going uphill to five out he was still very much on the tail of the main group in sixth including the strong-travelling Silviniaco Conti but over that fence the leaders had already begun racing proper after it and over four out. Bobs Worth didn't lose touch: there was no dramatic loss of place or pace; he was still close enough to Silviniaco Conti to have to manoeuvre around that horse when he capsized after the third last. Ground, inexperience, elite level rivals: all that and yet still Bobs Worth was able to maintain his gallop sufficiently to allow his legs to energise with resolute stamina and will. Approaching the last he was already in front and the race was won having been 10L behind the front two turning the bend onto the downhill run. It is true that the front two involved themselves in a protracted duel some way out but they were racing for the line and had little other choice: had they been good enough they would have won but they were reached and passed in seconds by the winner.

The scenarios for next year's race relate to the passage of the race where Bobs Worth moved from sixth to swerve around a faller in third to surge through to lead: effectively the stage that created a pace differential as Bobs Worth switched fully behind the bridle. On good ground it is possible that those freewheeling away from him on the descent would have maintained the 8-10L advantage for longer, something that wasn't fully tested when Silviniaco Conti fell given how well he was moving at the time. That is counterbalanced by Bobs Worth himself possibly moving better for longer on better ground prior to the downhill section, particularly with a bit more experience next season. Physically it has to be considered that Nicky Henderson is a master of preparation techniques for his horses and whilst Bobs Worth won't run many times he is all but certain, health permitting, to take in a standard preparation race in 2014 prior to March. This in conjunction with natural physical growth and/or maturation mean he is potentially better than he showed this season. He may need to be of course (or not): another tactical scenario arises from connections of other runners being more aware of Bobs Worth's preferred 'target and pass' running style with those connections less likely to want to make their horse a target for the Gold Cup winner with a strong gallop: a glance at the possible make-up of contenders for next season hints at such tactical issues with Long Run far more effective racing prominently at Kempton than he is at Cheltenham. Either way, Bobs Worth has very high levels of residual class to be a threat under any circumstances.

The runner-up, Sir Des Champs, shortened his stride dramatically fifty yards before the line and looked an extremely tired horse having gone head to head with the astonishingly resilient Long Run. A lot of focus can adequately be directed to the various form lines he represents but of much more interest here is his physical and mental development following this race. At the start of the season it was notable just how strong and powerful Sir Des Champs had become. Already a dual festival winner it therefore made sense for his trainer to harness his raw power early on and prime him for his March assignment. His seasonal performances underlined this strategy. In the Gold Cup he was prominent the whole way but having looked set to take the lead following a head to head with Long Run his jump at the second last was slow and he dropped to third, rallying over the last to regain second as the winner flew. This slight dip in what had hitherto been a powerful, even gallop may have been his physique catching up with him: if he was still maturing from 6 into 7 the pressure on his frame to respond at the most taxing part of the race would have been too much causing a temporary evaporation of energy from lungs and legs before a 'second wind' brought a limited surge back into second (not unlike what happened to Long Run in the race last season). The full effect of that effort was seen as he approached the line, which he all but walked over. Several scenarios present themselves for Sir Des Champs next season, none of which are easily predicted. It is possible he will suffer mentally from this race (something to bear in mind for Punchestown) even if recovering from the immense physical exertion of March. His size, power and class may well take him deep into Grade One races but his mental resolution has to stand up. To fashion another Gold Cup assault it is possible that he will again reappear on the burly side next season and on the same slow curve towards March. A source of potential improvement is the possibility of better ground, given his powerful and prominent running style a more tactical ride from just off the pace on good ground would see him as more of a threat with another summer and three quarters of a season immersed into his frame but again all that is reliant on the mental will to want to break through the pain barrier. Attempts to improve upon a placed effort in a Gold Cup have not been fruitful of late (position of highest place finisher from previous year: 35022FP34) and there will be some difficult tests awaiting Sir Des Champs over the next eleven months.

Finishing third for the second consecutive time was Long Run who ran another excellent elite level race to continue his simply astonishing record of finishing in the first three in all twenty-five of his lifetime starts. His (particularly mental) brilliance and innate suitability for Kempton and the King George VI Chase in particular has been successfully analysed already and he will be a popular choice for many to complete a formidable hattrick in that race in December.

The Giant Bolster is admirable, tough and lacking in elite level residual class. He ran another excellent Gold Cup race.

As with Sir Des Champs a similar route back to the Gold Cup will likely be mapped out for Silviniaco Conti. The inevitable question of 'what if' is irrelevant and of much more interest is that he showed a mix of courage and vulnerability in his next start at Aintree: courage to run his race right to the line after his crashing fall at HQ and the tenacity to continue to do so after an impacting blunder at the 14th fence; and the vulnerability that led to a slightly more cautious approach to his fences culminating in that mistake. The HQ tumble had affected him no doubt. At the start of the season his burgeoning talent was obvious and it was more his mental toughness that shifted into focus: could he deal with elite level pace and a range of ground conditions. Physically he had already been prepared by skipping the festival and demolishing his rivals at Aintree. In the Gold Cup his jumping was generally excellent once again: one mistake on the first circuit and another at the third last which ended his race. He jumped the fence fractionally close but went through the top with his hips and buckled on landing. Now that mental toughness will once again define him after his summer off. There appears to be a physical reason for his trainer not wanting to run him right-handed in the King George - a race he is seemingly made for - so as with Bobs Worth he is unlikely to appear at Kempton leaving the way clear for the same pathway to March as this season.

Surge: Bobs Worth powers away from his Gold Cup rivals