Gold Cup 2014: Towards Raceday

Energy and persistence conquer all things 

- Benjamin Franklin

Providing, of course, they have the requisite levels of residual class. The "surprise" of Synchronised made opaque the danger of a rigid mind - he had won the Grade One Lexus Chase easily after all. It would still be fair to say, however, that he took advantage of a division which in that year was sorely lacking in structural depth. That structure opened the door but his energy, persistence and class kicked it down. Other renewals were arguably more straightforward with the high class horses proving their high classness. This has been something with which First Lieutenant has struggled, winning only one of his twelve races since a fine second to Bobs Worth in the RSA Chase two years ago. His achievements in defeat over fences since winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle are notable: the RSA second with two Grade One seconds spaced out either side; second in a Hennessy Gold Cup, second in a Lexus Chase, second in a Ryanair Chase (beaten 9L by Cue Card); third in a Punchestown Gold Cup and second again in the Lexus Chase (beaten again by Bobs Worth). His solitary win in this time frame was very good but at the end of the season, when all the main hands had been played. He will need key rivals to blunder their chance away but a place is not out of the question given his admirable consistency at the Festival (122). He is, however, more than likely a probable runner in the Ryanair Chase.

Last Instalment has returned to the fray seemingly with his primary weapons in tact: residual class and jumping alacrity fired him to a Grade One Irish Hennessy win over a veteran Tidal Bay at Leopardstown. Twenty-three months prior to his comeback run at Thurles he had returned with sore legs after winning the Dr. P. J. Moriarty Chase on good ground in a manner confirming him as Ireland's premier novice chaser - Bobs Worth and First Lieutenant would fight out the RSA Chase he missed. His trainer revealed that he had "jarred both tendons" in a front leg; a year later the other leg would flare up with heat in the near-fore tendon, so fears of a good ground Gold Cup are well founded. 

His return has been impressive, albeit with some apparent overstatement in a division shorn of competition for the two big UK players. The second and third from last season's race will not appear: time and battle scars have overtaken Long Run and tendon damage this time claimed Sir Des Champs; whilst last season's novices have not proved to be of the calibre of their immediate predecessors. Last Instalment's return at Thurles (20f, Soft) was promising in so much as he ran a race that indicated he would progress from it with much of his old ability in tact. He was prominent the whole way and capable of fully tangling with the useful Texas Jack and Baily Green before being bested by those fitter, sharper rivals close home. 

In the Irish Hennessy he had progressed physically and dominated his mid-tier rivals. The intention had not been to lead but he had clearly thrived from his return race and flew the second fence to take a clear advantage, was untidy at the next, then jumped with panache for the rest of the way, if slightly right at times. The most significant aspect of this race, other than the usual metronome performance of his old Topaz Novice Chase rival First Lieutenant, was that Tidal Bay tried to race him down the far side after the tenth of seventeen fences. This was unusual because Tidal Bay is usually given a more waiting, patient ride so that he can be switched off mentally and come through horses late on, as he did to such dramatic effect when winning the Lexus Chase last season. In actual fact this still happened: Tidal Bay raced Last Instalment in a close second but soon realised that either the effort or the ability was not forthcoming and he began to steadily drop back through the field, to the point where he was joint-last and then last of the seven runners on the run to the final turn. He was a long way off the pace but still managed to pick off every horse bar the winner on the run to the line. His efforts are noted because he ensured that Last Instalment had to race proper for key phases of the second circuit. The difference in residual class levels was evident from the fact that the field were being ridden and asked to transfer energy behind the bridle approaching the final bend whereas Last Instalment simply increased the intensity of his gallop and drew away from them quite easily, shaken up to maintain his advantage and only hit with the whip close home most likely because of the nervous excitement of the jockey in victory. 

Easy Does It: Last Instalment won the Irish Hennessy comfortably but must now prove he has a level of physical rigour well beyond that shown in his novice seasons

This would not fall under the "hard race" umbrella - such a term can misleading in any case because it fails to acknowledge the fact that part of an elite horse's makeup is the toughness of mentality to race at the highest level where competition and racing is often "hard". However, the physical impact of such races can have a cumulative effect which - as well as race availability and scheduling - is why the very best horses in their division will only race around four times in a season: Last Instalment will be attempting his third race in just eight weeks and that race is the most demanding of them all. It is therefore a peculiar state of affairs that in the modern era the physiology, physicality and performance analysis of such demands is simply a matter of personal opinion without any semblance of creditable scientific data and knowledge being available. What we can say about Last Instalment is that he began his hurdles career in February 2011. He won on debut then had a seven week break. He then ran three times over the space of a calendar month and was pulled up on the third and final run of that sequence. In his novice chase season his runs were more sensibly spaced out, progressing through four runs in five months before developing tendon problems. In open company the concern is now a third race in eight weeks allied to the fact that the third race this time is the most physically demanding Graded race in the national hunt calendar. The "form" says he has beaten a thirteen year old veteran given an unusually forcing ride during a key phase of the second circuit and a horse that is continually beaten in elite company chases, but it will be his physicality that holds the key to his chance.

Nor do the concerns regarding race exertion and physicality preclude the possibility of victory. Last Instalment winning the Gold Cup would in theory provide as much insight into race performance analytics as would defeat. His two races in under a month may be a positive: building the muscular energy potential of a horse capable of being the best in the race, allowing him to run to a level that a one or three race programme may not have provided for. The salient point is not trying to predict an outcome we cannot know in advance but that the amount of agreeable, rigorous and available information to help guide that prediction is negligible. Last Instalment's quest for excellence also faces a problem beyond his own scope: the presence of two outstanding staying chasers, the Gold Cup winner and King George VI Chase winner. As the structural depth model provided pre-season and here at the end of December detailed, the two most foreboding obstacles to Gold Cup success have cemented their place in the upper echelons of the elite. 

With so much known about their quality, it can be left to others to favour either SILVINIACO CONTI or BOBS WORTH. Bobs Worth is simply fantastic. Diminutive in size but with an extraordinary ability to both keep touch with elite gallop pace and then transfer relatively huge amounts of energy behind the bridle to the point where he almost starts his own race within a race, surging in sustained fashion towards the finishing line from two or three furlongs out (depending on in-race shape). A triple Cheltenham Festival winner gunning for an unprecedented fourth consecutive success, he won the Lexus Chase impressively off a moderate gallop with his trademark energy distribution curve. One day he may wear wing-mirrors, to see the trail of destruction and desolation he leaves in his wake. But for his Haydock "experiment" he would be unbeaten in two years, although admittedly he has not raced much. 

Over and Out: Having jumped with excellent fluency in the main, Silviniaco Conti (pink) fails to lift his knees and, prior to this image, can be seen moving his lower legs through the fence at halfway; Long Run's mistake was similar; Bobs Worth had moved upsides Silviniaco Conti earlier in the race but had been outjumped, which conversely now gave him the time to swerve the fall and win decisively

Silviniaco Conti cannot boast the Festival record of his main rival but in winning the King George VI Chase impressively he added top notch staying power to his more tactically inspired, front-running Betfair Chase (2012) Grade One portfolio. A year younger than Bobs Worth, he just keeps getting better and has built towards Cheltenham this season with more substance over style than last year, where moving well and racing within his comfort zone he brushed through the top of three out and came down. Having not raced since the King George he will need to control his energy on the first circuit; in that respect the natural exuberance shown by Last Instalment at Leopardstown may see the Irish horse lead the field on the first circuit, although his connections would no doubt prefer another horse to perform that duty. It will be interesting to see the degree of tactically planning in Silviniaco Conti's run - going for home too early simply creates a target for his main rival to aim at. What his connections may have in mind is more of a controlling race akin to his Betfair Chase victory, storing as much energy as possible for deep into the race to resist the inevitable, destructive surge of the reigning champion. Closely matched in terms of ability, it is likely to be jumping and energy distribution efficiency that decides the contest.

King George VI Chase 2013: Review (plus Lexus Chase 2013)

The Preview for this race captured the significant aspects of the contest. The long-time favourite and eventual runner up Cue Card was beaten, as highlighted, by:

• Not being able to control the pace of the race, by not being allowed to stop-start the gallop. He was therefore denied a fundamental aspect of his physicality: the need to "fill up" in order to continue racing within his comfort zone;

• His own peculiar On/Behind bridle ratio. As pointed to specifically, Cue Card either wins comfortably through sheer class or is "swept aside" because, once challenged, it means he is forced to switch behind the bridle where his ability is dramatically minimised. Here he faced an elite opponent able to go his gallop, but also able to race with power behind the bridle, something Cue Card lacks;

• The ground, but only possibly. As a top class elite horse Cue Card handles any ground, but a good ground King George may just have helped him "yo-yo" his pursuers in a way that he was simply unable to do here, with Silviniaco Conti able to challenge him throughout, even after a mistake six out. But equally there would still have come a point when Cue Card's comfort zone petrol hit Empty, and the outcome of that would have been the same, perhaps just closer to the finishing line. 

• And, of course, a better staying three mile chaser with a more suitable physicality.

Some of the general discussion after the race mentioned how it was "strange" that Cue Card should "just apparently empty" between two out and the last. But it is only "strange" if there is a failure to identify beforehand the specific characteristics a top class horse is likely to exhibit. In the Preview the key question was posed as:

This leads us in a way to Cue Card's conundrum. What is the ratio of the amount of energy and class he expends on the bridle (racing comfortably) to that expended when challenged?

It received a quite specific answer during the race. His On/Behind bridle ratio was illuminated "down the stretch". Joe Tizzard said: 

"I think Paul [Nicholls] and Noel [Fehily] had a good game-plan," he commented. "They sat close, virtually touching me all the way, so I was never able, at any stage, to get in front and fill him up. I was starting to come under a bit of pressure [going to the second-last fence], but I thought I had enough to keep me going. But generally it was a good run and the best horse on the day won."

Here Tizzard is making specific reference to the tactics employed in Cue Card's Ryanair Chase and Betfair Chase victories, repeatedly slowing the pace in front and filling up with oxygen then going on again. He highlights the point at which Cue Card was required to switch behind the bridle, coming under pressure towards the second last, so after that jump he would need to switch fully and start to race and grind and use different qualities. But his energy distribution at this stage was shot through. The vast majority of Cue Card's racing is done within his own comfort zone and at a level few can cope with. But at elite level one or two horses (other than Sprinter Sacre) are able to gallop with him and in staying races those horses have a different On/Behind bridle ratio - they can race effectively and with power off the bridle, displaying a more even curve of energy distribution, and Silviniaco Conti was one of those horses. 

Notably, the jockey as well as opinion in general saw the problem of defeat as a matter of ground, or of ground and track, or of ground, track and tactics. All these are almost useless as indicators of race performance in this case. What was important was Cue Card's physicality. It was a terrific run, for sure; and the best staying horse won, for sure; but performance analysis suggests a Gold Cup run would be suicide. He is probably near unbeatable under the conditions of a Ryanair Chase, however. 

The winner, Silviniaco Conti, confirmed the abundant promise of a Gold Cup performance curtailed by falling three from home. All being well, he will now get another chance to test himself against the reigning champion, who was just behind him when he departed that contest. 

Here, at Kempton, he was excellent. The mistake six out, where he briefly lost close touch with Cue Card, should just have reminded him enough of the sharp mentality he will need to display at Cheltenham but that apart he matched Cue Card's level of residual class and elite pace gallop, jumped with prowess and powered on to the finishing line in a way his main rival could not. Rounding the final bend his reins were given a shake, his neck a slap, asking him to begin to switch behind the bridle and when Joe Tizzard looked round anxiously as his horse emptied after two out, Noel Fehily knew he had won. He did not have time to think upon it because in an instant he swept aside his rival; the hard work had already been done. He had been looked after in the Betfair Chase, racing wide and without razor sharp fitness, but even so he showcased his top class elite characteristics in defeat.

"The concern for Sil Conti and probably the reason he was not taken to Kempton for the King George last season is the amount of energy he will be required to use to track the kind of pace that unfolds in a King George and how this impacts upon his ability to then stay on."

Last season this kind of Preview comment may have carried more weight, but in this contest the winner made it look errant and overly worrisome. In tracking an outstanding speed horse, he then had the iron will and energy distribution curve to maintain his effort to victory, confirming himself an outstanding staying chaser who, all things being equal, is capable of giving Bobs Worth a war. 

As it transpired, Al Ferof would have needed extraordinary levels of residual class to win this contest, making the award of slight win-preference to him over his stablemate a touch fanciful. Tracking a fiercely competitive elite gallop pace constructed by two hard-fit horses in peak physical condition was always going to be tricky given his own preparation, should that scenario emerge, and emerge it did. A more sedate or uneven gallop would have helped him. He went notably left at two or three fences, enough for this jockey to have to grab the reins and guide him back to where he wanted him but in general he went through the race as the third best horse, but adrift.

When the winner made a slight error six out he jumped well to close up the gap in third place. When the front two played their cards approaching the final bend the rest of the field was well beaten but Al Ferof's residual class kept him galloping and he stayed on resolutely to cross the line some 14L behind the impressive winner, a total of about four seconds. In terms of challenging for the win in this race, it can be said that Al Ferof failed his first 'acid test'. Yet this race will have broken him down physically in such a way as to instil strength into his frame. It was his second start following a year off the track and with more training and another race in his legs, it is entirely possible he can bridge some of that four second gap to his stablemate under the conditions of a Gold Cup. Should connections wish to wait, they can switch to the Ryanair Chase or skip the Festival altogether. A lot hinges on the specifics of his physicality following this contest and the extent to which he can be trained with the rigour required, but that it was a run full of promise is not in doubt. 

Mount Benbulben can be analysed in the context of other races. He ran well overall in fourth, 2L behind Al Ferof, and will have good claims in the Irish Hennessy.

Dynaste finished fifth but some 30L further back and was never in the race. He was reportedly sore following this race.

Long Run's glorious career at the top level is now over, he was a fantastic racehorse, winner of a Gold Cup and two King George VI Chases, chasing home the legendary Kauto Star in another. 

Riverside Theatre, Champion Court and Menorah were always likely to be outclassed in this contest.

Lexus Chase 2013

In contrast to the King George, the Lexus lacked any kind of elite pace gallop for most of the race resulting in all the runners running most of the race well within their comfort zones. There was rarely more than six lengths covering the field the whole way, and four from home four lengths covered first to last. 

That the highly exposed ex-French veteran Rubi Ball led the field for most of the way, and that he was accompanied by the elite-but-exposed First Lieutenant who challenged him for the lead going over the last fence, ultimately meant this was a race that the reigning Gold Cup holder, Bobs Worth, had to win. With the field extremely compact for most of the way, the runners had gradually starting rolling with more intensity from about five out so that after jumping two out they were all behind the bridle and racing proper. It was still a three mile contest, still soft ground, but if anything the nature of the race now asked who could race behind the bridle with the greatest power and class. What would otherwise have been a fairly normal race result was given its stamp by the performance of the winner, who would have won further the more distance was added after the line. Prominent throughout, rolling proper from two out, rounding the final bend Bobs Worth engaged the 'surge' mode behind the bridle that seemingly channels his energy to his legs and, as at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup, he powered to the front appearing to get stronger and more dynamic the closer the line came into view. It was a reminder once again of why he is so well suited to the peculiar configuration of Cheltenham but when fit and firing he should really be suited to almost any racecourse. 

One 'round-up' saw a markedly different race whereby "The Nicky Henderson horse quickened up after the last to wear down the game First Lieutenant". So at the same time Bobs Worth was accelerating rapidly (having raced behind the bridle for some time) yet in the next breath wearing down an opponent with stamina (having used up nearly all his energy by quickening/accelerating). None of this is accurate in any way. As alluded to elsewhere, the use of traditional racing language can often be hugely unsatisfactory. 

Bobs Worth, the winner of the Lexus, will clash once more with Silviniaco Conti, winner of the King George, as the winner of the Gold Cup tackles the horse what would have asked him the most questions from that Gold Cup. Elite racing often has a regularity, a structure, that in some cases is as discernible before the season starts as it is during the season itself. Both horses have to make the race, of course, and should one or both not do so the landscape would shift once again. 

Of the vanquished, First Lieutenant ran well once again in defeat, his twelfth in thirteen starts over the last two years. Sir Des Champs lacked any kind of tactical pace in fourth and the pair will likely clash with Mount Benbulben in the Irish Hennessy. Lyreen Legend ran well in fifth, and it is still surprising to see Unioniste campaigned in races beyond his capabilities at such a young age. 

Dark Value, Anti-Value

As the 2013/14 National Hunt season reached November the echoes of a common refrain rose steadily in volume. The King George VI Chase had come into view. It was always highly likely that the first and second from 2012 would run again, fitness permitting, in the same race at the same point on the calendar, but there was a difference in the numbers assigned to each horse. Roughly a 6 for Long Run and a 25 for Captain Chris. Long Run was the winner in 2012 - he beat Captain Chris - but he did so by a neck. A year later, if - (insert reason(s) why) - Captain Chris could run a yard or so better he would be winning a (parallel) King George. Reward for Long Run holding him off by an inch instead of a neck, six apple crumbles. Reward for Captain Chris going one yard and one inch quicker, twenty-five apple crumbles. Which would you choose (freezer facilities are available)?

The reason so many people were going crumble crazy relates to an abstract notion that is ingrained, but rarely ever questioned, within the sport of National Hunt turf racing. That notion says that what should be one of, or for many the most important factor when placing a bet is a concept that has no foundations: "Value".

Understanding the reasons why this concept is flawed is not the aim here. They have been addressed, in extremely preliminary form, some time ago here (no alterations to that article have been made since). Nonetheless, because the notion as it relates to British turf horse racing lacks any form of credible foundations, it is not difficult to explore the myth without the need for an extensive and technical exposition. Unfortunately, the re-match that was to form the basis of this example was denied when Captain Chris was found to be lame in the week before the King George. But with the ground once again riding soft, the performance of Long Run would elicit a fairly accurate conclusion to the "four-times-the-price-value" theory. There was an added extra too, as Menorah happened to be four times the price of Silviniaco Conti, whom he had beaten by a length in the Grade One Betfred Bowl at Aintree (behind race winner First Lieutenant) at the end of the previous season (this was a very flaky claim, given the entirely different conditions of that race to this).

So we can see the angle quite clearly. The selection of one horse at a bigger price than another with closely matched form to that horse is a timeless approach. Other tools from the full spectrum of traditional racing language (first time out record, track, ground, stable form and so on) can then be used to support the basic evaluation of the approach and, significantly, that the bet is therefore "value", the most emphatic supporting agent any bet can lay claim to. Now, with the race run - in this case the King George VI Chase - something intriguing occurs. Regardless of the result, in the vast majority of cases the notion of "value" then disappears from discussion, reviews and highlights reels. If the concept of "value" is so crucial before the event, why does it become so irrelevant after it?

The reason why is that the concept of "value", whatever its perceived validity, is "present" only before a race. After a race is run it disappears, vanishes, like a phantom. Two-fold, part of the reason for that is that when the winner and placed horses cross the line no-one cares any longer because the result and monetary returns are then known and fixed. "Value" as a concept evaporates once its use as a reason for betting evaporates. The other reason is that language to describe "value" when "value" was not theoretically present is missing from traditional betting language. If a horse like Captain Chris had, for example, run far worse than expected by "value" theorists, what terms do we then use to describe that reality? "Dark value"? "Anti Value"? It is nothing short of incredible how much time is afforded to discussions of abstract, man-made formulations (prices) rather than the specific characteristics, profile and stamp of the horse in question. Those abstract prices are irrelevant because the influence they have in determining a horse's performance is close to zero in and around elite level competition.

Silviniaco Conti won the King George his Gold Cup performance hinted he could. Menorah, at four times the price or more, was pulled up having never been in the race. Long Run, the signifier of "value", unseated his rider when well beaten having struggled from some way out, which by "value" logic suggests Captain Chris would also have been toiling. He certainly would not have had the class of the front two and would have been a long way adrift on that basis. All this was not difficult to predict but in the justification process for betting "value" was writ large across performance prediction and winner selection. Now those performances can be analysed they confirm what many thought so surely we must term that process, those original prices, "Dark Value" or "Anti Value", meaning that many things of huge significance were being omitted from the thought process. In adumbrated form, it was obvious from Long Run's first two performances that the mentality on which his physicality depended had "gone", and he was a shadow of the horse he was last year. So how in any way was his performance in last year's race significant not least when the race itself had a completely different texture, with greater depth and two or three new, improving, top class horses in the field? Captain Chris's own build-up was also much changed. When all this was know Captain Chris had come into roughly the same price as Long Run so how then was his original "value" at "four times the price of Long Run" to be described? Nothing. The whole abstraction, the time invested in it, the flawed thought process simply slides away to be resurrected another time, for another race, destined to repeat itself ad infinitum.

Nor did the long time favourite, Cue Card, escape the same abstraction. Because he was favourite and also because his general profile had suffered inaccurate inflation (as a result of many things associated with his Haydock run), as the day dawned many realised that this was an altogether different test for him. As his price was pushed out by the men and women who created the abstraction of his price in the first place, a curious mist descended and seemed to offend many people. How could Cue Card possibly be the same price as, or a bigger price than, Silviniaco Conti whom he had beaten at Haydock? "At the prices", that other classically traditional way of crowbarring in a "value" justification regarding a horse which people are increasingly no longer certain about, began to shape much of the day of race talk. But "prices" did not help Cue Card get air into his lungs, and "the price" did not help Menorah with a thankless task nor would "value" have helped Captain Chris move comfortably in the company of improving elite horses this time around. Dark Value was all over the King George, but will "value" exponents work on concepts to help explain the other, hidden side, of their approach to themselves and to others?

The currents carrying the misunderstanding residing in the flawed structure of the "value" concept run deep. The Value Myth 2, the article that will uncover more fully their theoretical roots, is a complex one that must wait until the Summer. What the first article made clear is that those currents continually flow and swirl around the word "repeatability". No National Hunt turf race is ever repeated with the exact same conditions. "Value" as a concept is dependent in its entirety on the same situation(s) being repeated. In those two lines we can therefore point to the futility of "value" as a concept. The King George VI Chase of 2013 was different in innumerable ways to the King George VI Chase of 2012. To claim any kind of "value" on the basis of relating the outcome of the first event to the potential outcome of the second event is simply flawed.

"Prices", "value", "at the prices", "how is <x> a shorter price", "how is <y> a bigger price": None of this affects the outcome of a race. To have basis in the reality of making profits on events the situations in question must have repeatability. To reiterate, no National Hunt turf race is ever repeated. It is a far, far more interesting elite level sport when each individual horse is the main focus. Not just in a traditional sense of form, fitness and so on, but the animals themselves, their shape, constitution, physicality, mentality, technical aspects, bridle ratio and so on, those things which are only briefly discussed, if at all, before the numbers come tumbling in to obliterate nearly all the foundations of interest and enquiry.

The real value, the value that does not require quotation marks, perhaps lies in the widespread and unfailing commitment of the general racing community to the repeated use of a flawed concept as a way of navigating every racing event. By analysing elite racing performances in a way that has nothing to do with "value" whatsoever, it becomes possible to predict outcomes with a much greater degree of conceptual rigour. In so doing, the implications of performances from each elite event for the next one in that division or a related one can be tightened or loosened accordingly. Not always, but more so than before, it is possible to work to improve the tools needed to predict a horse's performance in advance of its target race. As for the King George VI Chase, it has now passed for another year. A whole year to wait for those wishing to repeat the unrepeatable, to claim "value" from an unrepeatable event. Unless, of course, some difficult questions are brought under consideration, and the "dark value" of this year's race is remembered. 

Preview: King George VI Chase 2013

The performance of Cue Card in the Betfair Chase lit the fuse to a wire wrapped around the trapped energy of national hunt racing enthusiasts. What appears a fairly straightforward race to analyse was in its aftermath spun across the realms of social media and expert review to extremes, from a win/race that 'proved little' to a win that opens the door for Cue Card to remain unbeaten forever, achieving misty ratings well in excess of 400 over staying trips. Or something akin to that. 

There were doubts about the official-versus-actual times and distances of the race but these are irrelevant. Of far more interest is what the animals themselves were doing, the how and why, relative to each other. Perhaps the most surprising thing about responses following the race was the near total absence of attempts to connect Cue Card's Ryanair win to his win here, at Haydock. Given that he is characterised by quite a rare commodity - he is an extraordinarily high class front runner - this is even more surprising. In the 2013 Ryanair Chase Review it was noted specifically that:

"His residual class is very high (as suggested by his Arkle Chase run): in this race he was at the front throughout, continually pressed by Champion Court, but that pressing was well within Cue Card's comfort zone. His jockey reported after the race how he was able to continually change the pace to his liking, getting numerous breathers into his mount which no doubt helped him finish his race so strongly. Setting off on the second circuit was an example of this, he was able to move Cue Card forward easily into a clear lead to again stretch the pace, before reducing it later on"

The Betfair Chase was a carbon copy of the Ryanair Chase, only over slightly further. Cue Card ran from the front; was 'pressed' for the lead on the first circuit well within his own comfort zone by horses with exposed limitations (Roi De Mee and Long Run); slowed the pace subtly by being held onto more around each bend, then stretched the pace again in the straights (at Haydock the field spread wide, meaning he wasn't being pressed even though Silviniaco Conti was almost as forward as him at times); and finished his race strongly as a result (as noted some time after by Paul Nicholls, among others). The effect of all this was compounded by the fact that this was not a Festival race where every opponent was hard fit and peaking but a seasonal opener for his three main rivals. Cue Card himself had a race fitness edge (whether he actually needed it or not) having been third on his seasonal debut at Exeter. They will be discussed in turn but Dynaste (second) ran a race of quality with good, even energy distribution and appeared beaten on merit but may have more to offer; Silviniaco Conti easily closed up on Cue Card when the leader was getting breathers but raced as wide as possible throughout each straight (indicative of racing 'safely') and having chased and closed upon Cue Card's final pace injection he tired approaching the last fence; and Bobs Worth was simply 'not ready' for this race in any meaningful way, with his trainer this season most likely only concerned with regaining the Gold Cup in March.

We can see already that a King George, firstly, then a Gold Cup in March, will present much different tests for Cue Card's elite characteristics. It is a peculiar habit to be intent on concentrating on ratings, distances, form and so on but it is him, his physicality, that is most crucial for determining his future performances. Kempton is a prime example because the curious question arises of what happens when they cannot control the pace to get the breathers into him?

The natural early pace down the first straight spreads the runners...

By the time they are ready to exit the first bend they have closed up as a group due to the pace slowing...

After the slower bend the pace is naturalised again and the runners are spaced out. Cue Card has gone clear for the time being.

There is no need to be dogmatic about why Joe Tizzard, who is excellent on him, rides Cue Card for this effect. We don't know the limits of Cue Card's stamina, nor his ability, but we do know he has limits. In both of his recent Grade One wins it may have been that they were a little unsure about his stamina; or that they wanted to use his speed; or that they wanted to unsettle his opponents generally; or that they wanted to inhibit the staying types with stop-start tactics. The simplest answer is that they are concerned only with their own horse, that as a front-runner it makes little sense not to control the race to best effect, and that given his class if they do that with him they pose a big problem to any opponent. This is why the King George is an entirely different test for Cue Card rather than, say, Dynaste. At Kempton there is no let up in the pace. All his opponents will be hard fit and all will appreciate an end-to-end gallop. The corners at Kempton are tighter; Ruby Walsh has described it as going around on roller skates because as soon as horses start to turn they are flung into the straight and carry on the gallop. The term "speedy track" refers to this aspect but it is often used erroneously with a King George, where actual "speed" has no real relevance. The winner has to be able to gallop at an elite pace (elite gallop pace is different to speed, which indicates acceleration) for as long as it takes to break the will of those that cannot do so. At that point, with most runners nearing exhaustion, the winner and challenger battle on behind the bridle, with stamina and force of will. There is no "speed" in a King George. The peculiar constellation of the strength/depth of the race, a prolonged elite gallop and the demands on the horses legs made by the track as a result combine to produce a winner with (the) highest residual class and the right blend of physical characteristics.

Cue Card will likely be prominent (unless there are fears of a pace burn up after the start), as will Al Ferof. Silviniaco Conti will be behind them, and Dynaste behind him (roughly speaking). The four main players together with anything with less residual class choosing to get a look at the cameras from the front will produce a gallop that will then be hard to slow at any stage. Out in front, even on goodish ground, Cue Card will need to gallop harder and for longer than in the Betfair Chase. Unlike Haydock he will have top class close-up company all the time. After that, he will then have to race behind the bridle to race with and fend off the challengers. Whether he is capable of doing so can be left to individual opinion but understanding the very different nature of his task here is the interesting aspect. Not least as whatever his performance level here, he will then be asked to race for even longer under similar conditions in a Gold Cup. This leads us in a way to Cue Card's conundrum. What is the ratio of the amount of energy and class he expends on the bridle (racing comfortably) to that expended when challenged? In Cue Card's profile it can be noted that owing to his sheer level of class he has defeated opponents without being seriously challenged. Correspondingly, perhaps, when beaten he has been a little bit 'swept aside' i.e. he has done his racing but then had no response to the winner. This happened in the International Hurdle and Supreme Novices Hurdle; understandably when beaten by Sprinter Sacre; and also at Exeter first time out, where a huge weight concession made life very difficult. This is therefore Cue Card's biggest test to date: can he produce a finish, quite possibly a war, with a rival or rivals of similar ability (Silviniaco Conti) or potentially similar ability (Al Ferof)?

Many of the aspects of physicality discussed regarding Cue Card apply to Dynaste. There is little doubt, on all known evidence, that Dynaste at this stage carries less residual class than Cue Card. His runs last season were very much on a progressive curve. Despite defeat his Jewson Novices Chase effort had a lot of merit and his training for the race was reportedly interrupted by small physical niggles. He went to Aintree a stronger, more complete horse, and won impressively, but only at a respectable level. His run in the Betfair Chase rewarded the patience and training plan of David Pipe. He has always been an ebullient traveller and part of this has been because he has been racing against inferior rivals quite often. For his Feltham win, for example, the pace was very slow early and when it was increased it was done so by Poungach. There were also two fences omitted. By four out Dynaste was travelling so powerfully still that he had little other option than to jump the fence and bound on, which he did. Third Intention gave chase, as he would later at Cheltenham and Aintree. He was not asked to hide at the Festival, however. Prominent the whole way he was sent to the front fully three out to try and grind away his rivals and stuck to his task admirably. He was the best horse at Aintree but at Haydock it was notable how much of an even race he ran: initially held up but never far away in part due to the field closing up together when Cue Card eased the pace around the turns. He didn't do anything quickly (rapid surge and tire, rise and fall movements often signify a physical problem) but instead stalked his way patiently into the race and into a challenging position two out, from where he could only maintain his gallop pace, unable to affect the leader.

He may have needed the race; he may have been on the outer limits of his stamina at that level of racing; or, put another way, he may just lack some of the residual class of his rivals in this division. Many will point to his Feltham win and wand vague notions of "the track" about but as described above that race is not worthy of meaningful comparison. In the King George, the elite gallop will claw at any minor chinks in Dynaste's stamina and/or class, meaning he will have to race harder, for longer, and then find a great deal more off the bridle than he was able to muster at Haydock. He is a very good horse already but defeat at Kempton (the possibility of defeat is mentioned for each runner under analysis) would leave the Ryanair Chase as perhaps his most viable encounter at the Festival, particularly if there was rain about, although he should now be physically mature enough to handle the drop to a shorter trip tactically under any conditions.

Silviniaco Conti was reported by his trainer to look "a few kilos heavy" before the race and then referred to how hard it had been this season "for some reason" to get horses ready first time out, a sentiment shared by others (including Nicky Henderson). Cue Card, too, had clearly benefited from his opening race. If the counter-view to that proposed here holds true and Cue Card did not dictate the shape of the race from the front then Cue Card is likely more vulnerable than his position in the market suggests. If he stop-started a gallop well within his own comfort zone his levels of class mean he can still pose a threat with a more even, stronger gallop because, as noted, we are yet to learn fully about his stamina. If he ran (as Tom Scudamore suggested) at a gallop that took no prisoners and then stayed on he will find it almost impossible to confirm that form with Silviniaco Conti and probably Dynaste, who were able to get alongside him comfortably without the aid of a run.

In some ways Sil Conti's run was just as impressive given his own level of fitness compared to the year before, where he had a run in demolishing a Charlie Hall field. The intent this time around was very much for Sil Conti to run his own race. He was taken purposefully to the opposite side of the track down each straight, well away from Cue Card. As Cue Card filled up around each bend, Sil Conti was taken diagonally toward him, close up, then taken away to the far side of the course again. This is indicative of a prep run. Having won the race last year, Sil Conti could have been asked to race with Cue Card given that Ruby Walsh rode a similarly tactical style when beating Long Run on him as Cue Card did here under Joe Tizzard. This did not happen. For sure they tried to win with him, no doubt.

Attack: Fehily is aware of a) Tizzard's tactics and/or Cue Card's unproven stamina and b) how well his own horse stays, and (from a few lengths back) launches his horse at Cue Card before three out. Dynaste is never far away.

This move would have been interesting had Silviniaco Conti had race fitness on his side but instead he is just behind Cue Card going over the second last and cannot find any more, staying on for third as Dynaste himself closes up as much as he can to take second. It is only a simple task then to try to imagine the outcome if Cue Card had been pressed or at least 'kept honest' by a top class horse the whole way round, moving faster around sharper bends against race fit elite rivals.

The concern for Sil Conti and probably the reason he was not taken to Kempton for the King George last season is the amount of energy he will be required to use to track the kind of pace that unfolds in a King George and how this impacts upon his ability to then stay on. In many ways this underlines how, similarly to Cue Card, we know quite little about Sil Conti in a top class staying race context. As the above graphic shows, he clearly has elite gallop pace but his trainer views him as a "thorough stayer", citing how at home he would work with Neptune Collonges (Grand National winner) whereas Al Ferof would work with a two miler. The Aintree race following his Gold Cup fall cautiously backs this general view. Again never far from the pace he made a crashing error which set him back but he was subsequently able to grind away resolutely behind the bridle to chisel away at the leading duo. Given his Gold Cup exertions the performance is most notable for the level of mental toughness he displayed and again here he gave his all. At Kempton it will be interesting to see how closely he is asked to chase the initial pace, and how much impact he can then make from behind the bridle under King George conditions. It can be reasonably argued at this early stage that of the King George principals, it is Silviniaco Conti who would be most suited to a Gold Cup war at Cheltenham and he is in a patient position whereby defeat here would likely enhance his claims for that race.

Whereas we cannot be certain about HQ for Al Ferof, but only because the flow of racecourse information was suspended by a minor tendon injury. Looking back from the future retrospectively after the event, he may have been the 'obvious winner' in many ways. He was beaten 8L by Cue Card in the Festival Bumper but reversed that form with eight hurdles to beat Cue Card nearly 7L in the Supreme Novices. Until trying to jump four out too early in the Arkle Chase, Al Ferof had comfortably matched Cue Card's pace on the front end. He won the Paddy Power Gold Cup on soft ground in the manner of a top class horse in waiting (Long Run failed to win the race off 157 before winning his first King George) and Al Ferof, long targeted at the Kempton showpiece by connections, was around 5/1 second favourite when his injury occurred. In the intervening time, the King George has been the sole aim. Stable jockey Daryl Jacob was urged to go to Ascot to ride him in a match race with French Opera. From the front, jumping easily and naturally, he sauntered home by 8L and after a constant flow of support he now occupies roughly the same position in the market as twelve months ago.

We cannot know where the runners will position themselves after the first fence, but it would not be unreasonable to assume that Al Ferof will be prominent; he may even help Cue Card lead the field. If that occurs, a definitive answer will be given as to the limitations, if any, on Cue Card's elite level staying power. Both he and Silviniaco Conti are by resolute stamina influence Dom Alco, but Al Ferof has clearly showcased the greater capability to run at the sharp end of elite level pace gallops. This is why the unforgiving distance of a Gold Cup may serve Silviniaco Conti better than Al Ferof, at this stage of their careers at least. Al Ferof's distribution of energy when racing is probably the most even of all the runners in this field: he has a formidable blend of elite pace and desire to race behind the bridle; his mix of residual class, potential and physicality gives him the characteristics to win this race. Ruby Walsh, without a ride in the race, still has no doubt about his suitability for the contest: "Al Ferof was impressive in the Amlin 1965 Chase and he jumped super. From Swinley Bottom he was always going to win. He looked in control of the race so far from home. It was a really taking performance and I think he had the King George written all over him." In terms of "if defeated", as with the other runners, much hinges on the nature of the defeat (mistake, fall, merit, stage of race etc) but it is notable that Al Ferof's Ryanair price has contracted correspondingly to the approaching time of the King George. This is understandable given his earlier form with Cue Card at shorter trips but it does not account for the trainer and owner having little time for the Ryanair Chase in this context. Old fashioned blue ribbands only need apply for a horse they believe is potentially out of the top drawer. The King George will be the first acid test of that hope.

Gold Cup 2014 Depth Model: Update

Pre-Season Depth Model:

Update following the Betfair Chase:

Gold Cup

Elite
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
Cue Card

Elite with Exposed Limitations
Sir Des Champs
Long Run
First Lieutenant
--------------------------------------
Potentially Elite
Al Ferof
Dynaste
Lord Windermere/Invictus

A detailed review of the Betfair Chase itself to follow.
Cue Card is moved to occupy elite status for the Gold Cup as well as the Ryanair Chase. His final destination will likely depend in the first instance on his performance in the King George; in the second instance on the smoothness of his preparation for the Festival in the new year.

Dynaste remains 'Potentially Elite' as this was his first run in open company. It was an excellent run but he is now tasked with reproducing the same level on his next start. Al Ferof showed his wellbeing at Ascot and the King George will define his season.

Invictus is placed alongside Lord Windermere now that he has made the five-day declarations for the Hennessy. Both have strong chances in that race, as may have a couple of others.

Two of the three highlighted with "Limitations" have shown why they were poor long-term projects. Long Run has been beaten a total of 62 lengths on his first two starts this season; First Lieutenant has finished third and then a remote fourth, beaten 26L.