Can the Hennessy bear Fruit @ 33/1?

1 2541-1 Tidal Bay28 11 11-12 Paul Nicholls52 R Walsh 166
Extraordinary horse. Has won two prestigious chases (Arkle, Whitbread) in the year when, respectively, they were probably the worst renewals of the race ever. 16f and 30f shows the range of his ability and with hurdles wins in there too there's probably not a lot he can't do when the race is weak enough. This is a borderline poor Hennessy. Would have been fascinating to see him in here off his pre-Sandown mark of 154 but rising 12 off 166 requires JK Rowland to step in.
2 2887-1 Roberto Goldback28 10 11-8 Nicky Henderson50 162
Simon Munir listened to Barry Gerraghty and Nicky Henderson did the rest. He's absolutely lagged up in a 56k Ascot chase and again you wonder what that rejuvination could have done here off 150. It's rare that the Hennessy is won by a 'double-upper' - that is winning on reappearance and then taking this down too a) for handicapping reasons and b) the physical and mental demands the Hennessy requires, no doubt the reason Welsh National runners who run here may as well not bother.
3 1321- Bobs Worth262 7 11-6 Nicky Henderson50 160
Very few miles clocked up in a seamless ascent through the ranks beating the future Champion Hurdle winner en route to an AB win and returning after breathing issues and/or some lacklustre jumping displays to take the RSA from First Lieutenant. Yet to race on officially soft ground and whilst his size brings about worries on the likely ground his robust mental attitude will never see him down tools. Not a bruising tank like Denman and highly likely to fall short of Denman's class but then Bobs Worth isn't top weight either. Perhaps more importantly it just may be inconceivable that Henderson of all trainers would bottom a true HQ horse first time up in a Hennessy bog, so readily passed over.
4 223-42 First Lieutenant28 7 11-5 M F Morris60 159
Beat Rock on Ruby at the festival and returned after a surprisingly mixed and robust campaign to finish second to Bobs Worth in the RSA. His trainer has always maintained the need for good ground yet has run him several times, many of them unnecessarily (it would seem), on deeper ground. The question FL has to answer is does he have the tools to find a way to win any race whether he runs here or not, but here he will be 362 days without a win after 6 straight defeats. His last run would appear to give him every chance as it was a close 2nd in a G1 on soft ground over 3m yet small-field affairs are a world apart from the pace from the start of a Hennessy. In his defense he has big-field form as a novice hurdler.
7 110-3 Hold On Julio42 9 10-8 Alan King71 148
A rapid riser which always leaves cause for concern. The races he won impressively last season were weak affairs of little consequence and he was duly caught out for experience and the rest at the festival. His reappearance run was however some of the best form on offer in this race and despite a further rise in the weights he can now be pegged as being capable of being involved in the finish of a high quality race off 148. Ground is a bit of a guess but he is all stamina and a softer surface will play to that. The biggest concern in terms of being the likeliest winner arise from the impact his sometimes wayward leaps can have on his rhythm, prominence and place in the race. At HQ his momentum was just checked now and then and it was on the flat that he was making up the ground, that can be exacting. Nonetheless he managed to chase the tail of Balthazar King, a tool and rhythm king, so Julio could well go off favourite and win.
8 18511- Lion Na Bearnai236 10 10-8 Thomas Gibney 148
Pass, mark, profile, class.
9 P09-L0 Carruthers14 9 10-7 Mark Bradstock67 147
Everything dropped perfectly last season for the race of his life: ground, race strength, hcap mark. Not that he wasn't perfectly entitled to take one down in terms of class, he was, and many knew it, despite a potholed profile. His form figures since that great day last year tell it all, however.
11 55/4-1 The Package21 9 10-7 David Pipe47 147
Finally boosted his strike-rate over fences with a flawless win in the Badger Ales but as with Roberto Goldback he was targeted at that race not this one making this contest an even more brutal examination of his residual ability off only a 21 day break.
12 1P11-8 Teaforthree14 8 10-6 Rebecca Curtis20
A surprising entry in many respects as Hennessy runners have a truly shocking record in the Welsh National which is said to be this horse's main target. Doesn't appear particularly well handicapped and despite having a staying record weakened alarmingly first time out this season.
13 1325-0 Fruity O´Rooney42 9 10-5 Gary Moore57 145
Along with Hold On Julio he offers some of the best handicap form in the race. Arguably could have won the Skybet Chase at Doncaster (off 140) but for the saddle slipping and his performance from the front around Cheltenham in the Festival Chase was outstanding, bested only by the very well handicapped Alfie Sherrin. He again gave everything before tiring into 5th in the Scottish National. He handles soft and heavy ground - he got into a few wars on such ground at the beginning of 2011 but they seemed to have made him stronger. Hurdles spin preparation is standard for the yard and his huge appeal lies in his mental robustness, ground ability and competitive handicap mark. If he's accurate and finds his own rhythm those in behind will have a race on to get to and pass him. Very interesting runner.
14 24U01- Saint Are231 6 10-5 Tim Vaughan67 145
Not unreasonable to suggest his sole claim to running in this race is his sign-off win after an indifferent campaign last season. May handle soft despite rarely running on it but that Aintree chase win was a searingly poor affair and scraping home from a "reluctant" rival did little to suggest he's of this standard, physical improvement over the summer notwithstanding.
15 2511-2 Duke Of Lucca28 7 10-4 Philip Hobbs40 144
Could be strongly progressive this season but the toughness of this race along with soft ground is a little off-putting. Would have much stronger claims on good ground.
16 45PP-P Diamond Harry21 9 10-3 Nick Williams33 143
Yes or no but simply a no here as the ground will rip apart any physical weaknesses.
17 PP-522 Magnanimity16 8 10-3 D T Hughes69 143
Another surprising runner. A torrid first season out of novice company where he was never right he has showed some signs of life this season. However, the RSA in which he was 1L 4th was a terrible renewal and he has ultimately shown few signs he is ready to win a race let alone one of this brutal nature.
18 112P-P Harry The Viking14 7 10-2 Paul Nicholls52 Daryl Jacob 142
Passed over by Ruby after a poor reappearance.
19 211P-4 Ikorodu Road30 9 10-1 Matt Sheppard 141
Pass.
20 21U-4F Frisco Depot28 8 10-1 Charlie Longsdon64 Mr S Waley-Cohen5 141
One of the few runners to offer unexposed soft ground 3m chase form in the race. Money arrived strong and late for him at Ascot and has come again here. A big worry would be that he was keen at Ascot and could have fallen before he actually did and were he to be keen again then his race could be done with before 3 out.
21 1/21B- Soll262 7 9-13 Jo Hughes 139
Pass.
22 1235-3 Alfie Spinner28 7 9-12 Nick Williams33 138
Gets in at the bottom here because he has managed only 1 win from 7 starts over fences. Likely to handle the ground but not the class of this contest.

Ante-Post Selections are both intended runners: Fruity O'Rooney e/w 33/1 & Hold On Julio 7/1

Glorious Conti and Long Run to Regain?

On #BST I dotted out some reasons for saying:

"liking Conti in the Betfair. Hope he's man enough to see it through
but getting a (surprising) stonk on for Long Run in the KG, the race I think he's best suited to.
around 16/1 for the double, will be having a good go at it" 

So is a payday looming? 

Silviniaco Conti was breathtaking in the Rising Stars chase at Wincanton last season. For sure he beat little but it was straight out of the "way he did it" basket. Rhythm, attacking, athletic. It appears (now) he ran into a bit of a one-off in the Feltham whilst still having the eventual RSA winner behind. He was perhaps undone by mental inexperience as much as anything, still running the winner down at the end of the contest. In the Betfair Chase he was all man: rhythm from the front, attacking out of deep ground, athletic - bar the last - in clearing his fences. Quite a few have ante-post vouchers for the King George, where he won't be going, and the Gold Cup where he almost certainly will be. The potential lack of a prep run is quite off-putting for March though.

And what of Long Run?

Vanquished again but predictably so: (from BST) My view atm is that he is a top class one-paced grinder and that that reveals itself around Kempton better than any other track.

I really like Conti for the Betfair but whatever he does I remember NJH saying last year they thought they got into a war with Kauto and it left a bit of a mark on LR for the KG - he's got the ability to take a Betfair slog down but my guess is they will take it as it comes and an easier race is preferred (which could still mean a win) to preserve an all-out attempt at Kempton, home of his best runs.

With Kauto retired I'd say LR is boss man at Kempton and just hanging around for the afterparty at HQ.

Henderson's comments were crucial in that they indicated a keen fear of a hard race in bad ground first up. So it proved. However, he appeared to look quite striking in his appearance - more of "a man" as owner and trainer had indicated in pre-season. He moved through the race pretty well and his placing was never threatened, at least only by himself with his usual now-and-then leaps out of the Goat-On-Acid playbook. That's just him though. A lot of his jumping is really good.

Why Kempton? If he's one-paced then a speedy three miles flat tracking won't help him? Everyone has their view and mine is that the King George is a brutal test of high-class stamina. There are no breathers. It may have been Ruby Walsh - I can't remember - who once likened going round the track in a King George as being on roller-skates: almost continually turning with no rest. Once turned, it's jumping, jumping, galloping and turning again. Kauto Star was most likely so brilliant there because he was just so brilliant. Top-end Grade 1 class with stamina is unbeatable. Long Run has only lost around Kempton to Kauto Star. A (soft) Feltham destruction; his King George win, comfortably, by 12L from the future Ryanair winner; and last year's desperate late lunge at one of the Greatest ever: that is some achievement what with winning a Gold Cup too.

Not many horses can cope with the demands of a King George to an extent where they are actually in a race proper turning for home: nearly all are left behind by the one or two with elite G1 class and the stamina to sustain that gallop on a course where no let-up is allowed. To have to keep finding like that hurts a lesser animal in their bones and they wilt. Long Run won't wilt at Kempton. Can any of his rivals do his level of grind?

Fading Fly

Winner of 14 from 17 over hurdles, placed in the other three. Hurricane Fly needs no introduction as one of the best two mile hurdlers of a generation, possibly ever. Only Injuries prevented a fuller list of accolades. He finally won the one that mattered most in a stirring lung-bursting battle with the most hardy, arguably most talented runner-up of the race since the Hardy and Brave years. As with that other iconic hurdler, Big Buck's, part of Hurricane Fly's supreme talent that season lay in robustness: he could have wilted after Cheltenham but instead was just as imperious back in his Native Ireland.

Last season saw the fade begin. Beset by niggling problems once again, he was unable to make the track until January. A one-step to the most grueling of battles is rarely ever enough and so it proved, besting the other much-vaunted decliner, Binocular, but unable to muster a challenge to the two hard-hats in front. Never traveling like he used to, he stuck at it, the resolution of a champion. It's true he edged out the limited Zaidpour in Ireland afterwards but there was little swagger on show, the swagger that so captured the imagination. 

Given that this season he reappeared with a win it might seem churlish to be forecasting his lesser powers. Forecasting has no sway with sentiment, especially in a brutal arena such as the festival. Nor does that opening win affect the narrative: again he seemed shackled too closely for comfort to a lesser force. Go Native, still a useful speedball rising 10, closed towards his more illustrious rival ready to launch a war before miss-stepping the last.

As mentioned before it is testament to the unnerving quality of Hurricane Fly that, despite a lackluster defence of his crown and his swagger curtailed on reappearance, he is favourite to regain the title of Best Around. But at the age of nine will he really progress again, improve again, really fly again? Or will he be grounded by the daunting-looking army of young and hungry 2m hurdlers set to make March a war with no trenches?

Unequivocally the latter. No right to waiver.

The Paddy Power Aftermath & Rhythm?!

1) Not being "at the races" is a problem.

Expectation can work both ways. I expected several things all of them wrongly because I was at work and not near a TV on Saturday: the ground was bordering on heavy with work done for g/s; Grand Crus lined up - inconceivably - at the back of an 18 runner field on deep ground when I had expected him to sit third or at least no deeper than sixth; and, given it was Pipe and the horse's first run of the season, that any physical problem would have been picked up long before this race. The latter you would have expected to have been sorted after the RSA but is a part of racing in any case. The first two combined to leave any analysis of Grand Crus, positive or negative, to be irrelevant: name the last horse to set off stone last on deep ground in a big-field top-level handicap and win? Those errors are mine: don't expect something especially when you're not around to check on it. Lest we forget there was no win single bet on Grand Crus - the race held little appeal overall - I used innate genius to double him with Darlan, a non-runner! Expect to lose, then.

2) Substantial problem(s) identified about a key horse should not be transferred onto their opponents.

Re-forming opinions is essential. Many stick doggedly during a season or over many seasons to an assumption, a belief, or a hope. That can pay off once but what of all the other times? The above expectation (largely shaped from the Feltham win over Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth and that devastating mid-race move which probably bottomed/hurt him) coincided with a total lack of credible unexposed opposition. Nothing with an OR between 146-149 is inconceivable. To identify strong weakness in a key horse (or favourite) is enough, there is no need to search and question the opposition for their strengths, just let the problem horse fade. Instead, largely dissatisfied with the quality of the race as a whole,  the tables get flipped. Makes no sense now, of course. On heavy ground any hint of weakness or physical problem pulls a horse out of shape, it hurts them. Focus on the weaknesses of the assessed horse, not the weaknesses identified in a more generic abstract sense about the race, I'd say.

I wonder if it was "Pipe's insanity" to set the horse off last, or whether they knew in any case of some underlying problem. Regardless, he remains of little to no interest in any backing sense; I wonder how much the front two will progress this season.

Upcoming...

Paddy Power aftermath: Pipe "insanity", the problem with Al Ferof and why I'm against Hurricane Fly...

2012 Paddy Power Gold Cup

Few with chances, most with none....

A strange quirk in the build-up to the 2011 renewal was that the eventual winner was not even mentioned in the RPTV analysis of the race. Not meant as criticism in any way, as Mr Watts said they have very limited time and can’t cover everything: it just goes to show that sometimes the obvious can slip by all too easily. Great Endeavour was trained by the race’s strongest stable, had winning festival form and was ideally handicapped. An irrelevant flashback? Well the same stable have the likeliest winner this year also: it matters to many that he’s now only 2/1 but in terms of the race itself that denominator is irrelevant. Grand Crus’s profile and quirks are detailed below - staring at a very weak Paddy Power field I’m happy to revise the preliminary conclusion. Very few doubts or concerns materialise for Saturday; the King George will be another bridge later on.

It would have been fascinating to watch a stablemates battle as Notus De La Tour would have received a major chunk of weight, but Pipe, hardly averse to running multiple entries in big races, has other plans. The quirk of this race lies in the official ratings. Alarm bells should ring for those wanting to challenge the 150+ brigade because there is no progressive, talented horse with a competitive OR of 146, 147, 148 OR 149. Where are they? The two that reside on 145 have pretty much shown their rather limited hands already, to boot. (This general point was made, subsequently, by Ruby Walsh on Friday)

Some perspective of the race can be gleaned via Hunt Ball. A fine narrative of a horse continually responding to racing and winning, without doubt, but in terms of racing structure, core achievement and future progression it goes 3x1k, 1x3k, 3x7k and then what was probably the worst festival handicap chase ever, the form of which would be more akin to the 1-7k events in which his ascent began. He did win it well and signed off with a fine third in the G1 Betfair Bowl at Aintree. I’ve talked elsewhere of the great - often immense - difficulty of picking up such a season in the same kind of form after a break. Wishful Thinking in this race last year springs readily to mind. With the King George declared as the somewhat ambitious first half season target, a watching brief is strongly advisable.

What not to be is afraid. Far too often a defensive posturing surrounds strong predictions concerning favourites at a short price. The price merely reflects financial reward amounts for being right, the thing to worry about is the being right, the analysis. Flexibility outlasts a stubborn prediction; wiggle room is always essential. Here, as with the RSA, the opposition is or has already faded away, but in the RSA the horse suffered from a cotton wool preparation and consequently scoped badly post-race. Now, he should be at the peak of his physical powers, which he will need to be especially if held-up in a big field handicap. Long Run laboured first time out - unprepared - as Little Josh powered on up front but Grand Crus is in many ways antithetical to the bruising, often clumsy, stamina-laden King George and Gold Cup stalwart. Pipe declined the Betfair Chase for the very favourable first up conditions to be encountered at HQ.

If Hunt Ball’s performance is none too predictable then he is joined on that front by Al Ferof. Dismantled in the Arkle, the future Gold Cup horse was trying 2m against a monster and it told spectacularly. He had been overrated in any case and it is not unreasonable to conclude that following his facile chase debut he started down a regressive line. Whether a breathing problem emerged I’m not sure but legging it after Grand Crus and co in a big-field handicap doesn’t seem an entirely beneficial or appealing return to work. Despite a multitude of questions to answer, he’s third favourite - a further indication of the easing task being set the favourite. Walkon, too, was regressive last season.

Likeliest winner: Grand Crus - AMENDED, only if not setting off stone cold last! #Rhythm