Ryanair Chase 2014 - Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference

Winter is a season of recovery and preparation
- Paul Theroux

Which may describe two of the leading contenders for this contest. As does something else, because nothing describes the 2008-2013 Grade One Ryanair Chase more simply than the fact that all bar one of the last six winners (with Albertas Run counted twice) ran in the King George VI Chase in the same season and Riverside Theatre was second in the race in the season before his win. The structural reasoning behind this preparatory golden pathway can be left aside here; but that we are looking for a top class horse to emerge as the winner is - until the evidence presents itself otherwise - not in doubt. 

First Lieutenant ran with great credit in this race last year. He has become a metronome for Grade One races but, Aintree last season apart, he has never really threatened the top ranks often enough. He has been analysed in detail elsewhere and is talented but on any ground over any trip his energy distribution is too even and lacking in power behind the bridle. If others falter he can go close, however.

Benefficient showed he had progressed into open company elite status when backing up his Irish Arkle and Jewson Novices Chase wins from last season with victory in the Grade One Dial-A-Bet Chase (17f, Soft) at Leopardstown. Last season he ran five times prior to beating Dynaste at Cheltenham (20f, GS) whereas this season he has run only twice (bar a seemingly random flat run in September). His trainer admitted to working him too hard prior to his run over three miles at Wetherby, where in the lead-up to the race he had worked Benefficient with the all-or-nothing input of Flemenstar. The strenuous workout apparently hollowed the Beneficial chestnut. Yet the mental and physical resolution that was the hallmark of his Jewson Novices Chase win emerged once again at Leopardstown: recovery and preparation combined to deliver an effort that made his running after the last fence stronger than his rivals. 

The question mark for Benefficient is residual class. With his Charlie Hall Chase excursion finishing with a tailed off effort his only run with intent this season was his win over two miles. The dominance of King George runners in this race shows the extent to which stamina is a pre-requisite under normal conditions - it is possible that this was the reason for starting in the three mile Charlie Hall Chase but the plan went awry. His beating of Dynaste at the Festival is covered in more detail below, but there were few stamina concerns evident given that he was sent into a positive front-running gallop from the off. He stayed there until brushing through the top of three out at which point Dynaste, then alongside him, flew the fence and the differing physical momentum of the two horses at that point separated them by a few lengths as they made their descent (with Captain Conan jumping in between them). Benefficient's two mile pace gallop had been jolted slightly but it was nonetheless impressive how, gathered in and allowed to fill up down the hill, he was able to command a transfer of energy behind the bridle to such an extent that he could surge to the head of the field once more after jumping the last impressively. He was aided in that quest, without doubt, by the fact that Captain Conan was emptying and that Dynaste was feeling the strain of his own pace injection three out, compounded by a preparation for the race that had not been physically straightforward. Dynaste tired notably close home, for example. 

Energy Delivery Systems: Captain Conan (left) tired dramatically into fifth; Dynaste (middle) tired notably close home but held second; Benefficient had experienced a more robust season of the three and his physicality had been hardened as a result

Benefficient is therefore a strong, tactically versatile horse that tries extremely hard on any kind of ground. He can be asked to lead, race prominently or in smaller fields be held off the pace a little. He is capable of using his energy with great efficiency. So for him it depends on the extent to which a Grade One Festival gallop over a furlong further than the Jewson Novices version affects the class of performance delivery against horses that have shown themselves adept at Grade One level over that distance or further. In that sense for a horse that thrived on racing in his novice season it is perhaps a slight concern that he has not stood more racing this season. Whether that inaction compromises his effort remains to be seen.

On first glance Al Ferof's career has stalled. That is obviously true to a point at the time of writing but the interesting question is to what extent has his season been mapped out that way. His ebullient owner had dreamed of Gold Cups after his Supreme Novices Hurdle win in the hottest renewal of recent times. His Paddy Power Handicap Chase win began to align him with the Imperial Commander pathway and - delayed by a tendon injury - that initial point has now been reached. Imperial Commander went from winning the same handicap, to a no-show performance in the King George owing to a physical conformation issue that hindered right-handed participation, to winning the Ryanair Chase on his next start (and later on the Gold Cup itself). Al Ferof's progression was halted just prior to the King George of 2012, but he made the 2013 version to run a fifteen lengths third to Silviniaco Conti (winner) and Cue Card (second), but never really looked comfortable on his second start back from absence on tacky, soft ground.

As highlighted at the start, running in the King George is significant because it is an indicator of the kinds of residual class and stamina levels required to win what is a demanding Grade One Chase at the Festival (Imperial Commander himself was beaten 72L in the race prior to his Ryanair Chase win; Albertas Run by 69L prior to his first win). In that sense and in its own right, Al Ferof's run was pleasing enough especially in light of the fact that the two in front of him were top class animals. What was not so pleasing was the extent to which he appeared to fold into his shell on his next start at Newbury in the Denman Chase (24f, Heavy), beaten twenty-five lengths by the mud-loving Harry Topper having been in close touch to that horse rounding the final turn, albeit still with a long way to go in the race. Analysing the run is a question of physicality, training programmes and trainer intention. On the surface the run was disappointing: he had been expected to win or at least improve upon his Kempton run but he faded in the manner of a horse with a physical or stamina issue. However, it could also have been the case that he was still fatigued from his King George exertions and/or that again the very deep ground was not to his liking on the day; and it is possible that he was sent to the race purely in preparatory terms - the race is one that his trainer has often used for horses he is preparing for the Festival and the instructions may have been to race for as long as possible before easing off with the expectation that he would tire, leaving over four weeks to train the horse into peak physical condition for March. 

Vain Pursuit: But was Al Ferof expected to run any differently in a race so close to his seasonal target

There are many unknowns: the weight of the horse pre- and post-race; the extent to which he had been prepared at home for a race that is not a target race for top horses; what was revealed privately after the race to connections by the jockey and so on. What we do know is that his trainer has long thought the Ryanair Chase as the most suitable target for his horse. His owner and former jockey repeated the Gold Cup mantra prior to Newbury, but Paul Nicholls always had Silviniaco Conti for the King George-Gold Cup route. Given that Al Ferof won a Supreme over two miles and travelled smoothly and easily through a Paddy Power Gold Cup over 20.5f, allied to time off the track and two defeats over three miles, this race offers the grey the chance to exhibit his potential once again where better ground would be a big help. His overall profile remains in-keeping with Ryanair Chase winners: Supreme winner, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, King George third; and he is with a trainer adept at bringing talented horses back to their peak or somewhere near it. It remains a big task but one well within the realms of possibility.

Recovery and preparation will also hold the key to the chances of DYNASTE. From the outset it is worth noting that his trainer has quite a poor record in Graded races at the Festival, something he will be hopeful of improving upon with his talented grey. To do so he will need to have had a smooth pathway to the Festival with his horse following Dynaste's recovery from pulled muscles sustained in the King George VI Chase as a result of which he finished fifth, beaten 47L. Had he just had an off day or problems with the ground the run would have been a positive - the timing of the race some eleven weeks before the Festival is ideal for keeping a horse ticking over through the winter months in preparation for March; but picking up a physical issue is not ideal. That said Dynaste runs well fresh; with this in mind it can be seen how his overall level of physicality will determine the strength of his effort in this race. 

Over hurdles Dynaste tangled three times with Big Buck's for a combined defeat of seventy-two lengths, sufficiently inferior enough to indicate that he would make a better chaser and that three miles would likely be too far for him. He was swiftly transferred to fences thereafter where he won three in a row prior to an interrupted pathway to the Jewson Novices Chase. His wins included a Grade One Feltham Novices Chase over three miles on heavy ground but the description is misleading: two fences were omitted and such was the moderate class level of his opponents that the race was run at a crawl early on and Dynaste won the race easily with a surge of tactical pace jumping four out. 

A similar pattern emerged in the Jewson Novices Chase. He tracked Benefficient in third or four place before moving alongside on the run to three out at which point he was moving so well that he outjumped his rival and held the race advantage going downhill to the final turn. It was a fairly bold move although whether it was determined by the jockey or the horse himself is hard to say. Dynaste had travelled well and injected decisive raw pace into each of his previous three chase runs. The difference here was that he was meeting a top novice with hardened race conditioning and a resilient mentality. Although capable of staying further than 20f (as he would later prove in the Betfair Chase) Dynaste began to physically tire from his own lack of race fitness and conditioning and approaching the last Benefficient had transferred his energy behind the bridle to continue galloping with power, moving past his rivals to win comfortably, his jockey celebrating well before the finishing line. 

Jolt: Benefficient ploughs his legs through the top of the third last fence, halting his momentum briefly; Dynaste flies the obstacle, moving strongly within his comfort zone at the time

Leader: the descent has confirmed the difference in momentum at the third last fence; Captain Conan advances also; gathered together and "filled up" running downhill, Benefficient now has energy to transfer behind the bridle

Left Leg In (image zoom): The difference in energy distribution from the third last to here, the final fence, sees a turnaround in fortunes; Dynaste and even more so Captain Conan are left with diminishing reserves of energy. Benefficient is more powerful behind the bridle

Fatigue: Captain Conan is fading into fifth; Dynaste has almost been caught by horses from a long way off the pace; Benfficient is dominant

The front two produced impressive performances in different ways and it is likely that this race brought Dynaste to a physical peak at Aintree next time out, where again he was visually impressive this time over three miles on good ground. His main opponent (Third Intention) was one he had already outclassed in the Feltham Novices Chase and is a non-stayer to date over three miles (W0 L5). 

Three miles would remain Dynaste's distance assignment for his first season in open company, where he ran the best race of his career at Haydock in a high class renewal of the Grade One Betfair Chase. This race would see the association between Cue Card and the adjective "stayer" grow closer, but the analytics of the race confirm that it was a masterclass in tactical pace control from the front, rather than a performance that relied in any meaningful way on stamina or, more accurately, sustained racing energy and power from behind the bridle. Cue Card was still a highly impressive winner, backing up his win with a creditable second in the King George. This provides the context for assessing Dynaste's effort in chasing Cue Card home at Haydock, where he gradually and continually crept closer and closer to the top class front-runner without in the end being able to land a telling blow from behind the bridle. The future King George winner, Silviniaco Conti, was just behind him although admittedly his trainer was using the contest as a prep race for his staying star. Dynaste's energy distribution was incredibly even but it was too even - the class of opponent and energy-sapping distance stretched out Dynaste's On/Behind bridle ratio into a straight line, whereas before there were spikes of decisive energy bursts. 

Just Too Far: Dynaste (left) splits two horses of the highest class in the Grade One Betfair Chase. If operating with maximum physicality he will be a potent threat in March

Over a shorter distance, on better ground, against slightly less imposing elite horses, Dynaste should prove capable of delivering a high class Grade One performance. As the Jewson Novices Chase showed he will need to be operating at maximum levels of physicality to do so. His trainer has sometimes struggled to prepare his horses in this respect with regard to the Festival and top class races; it is therefore a test for him as much as it is for Dynaste.