* Early season analytics for this race are here
The Arkle Chase ranks high amongst the most frequently misanalysed contests of the Festival. Like the Supreme Novices, its hurdling sister race, a lot of this misunderstanding stems from the lack of any fixed procedure or race requirements leading up to the contest. It is an incredibly fluid race in terms of the options available as a means of preparation, and correspondingly there are no key, recurring signposts towards future effective performance in this race. By contrast, the open company versions - Champion Hurdle (Fighting Fifth, International Hurdle, Christmas Hurdle, Kingwell Hurdle; Ryanair Hurdle, Irish Champion Hurdle) and Queen Mother Champion Chase (Desert Orchid Chase, Tingle Creek Chase, Game Spirit Chase; Dial-A-Bet Chase, Fortria Chase, Tied Cottage Chase) - have structured, historic races through the season that promote specific competition and comparison of equine ability and characteristics in relation to the Festival race for which they are a precursor.
The only sport I'm not interested in is horse racing. That's because I don't know the horses personally.
- Nat King Cole
The Arkle Chase ranks high amongst the most frequently misanalysed contests of the Festival. Like the Supreme Novices, its hurdling sister race, a lot of this misunderstanding stems from the lack of any fixed procedure or race requirements leading up to the contest. It is an incredibly fluid race in terms of the options available as a means of preparation, and correspondingly there are no key, recurring signposts towards future effective performance in this race. By contrast, the open company versions - Champion Hurdle (Fighting Fifth, International Hurdle, Christmas Hurdle, Kingwell Hurdle; Ryanair Hurdle, Irish Champion Hurdle) and Queen Mother Champion Chase (Desert Orchid Chase, Tingle Creek Chase, Game Spirit Chase; Dial-A-Bet Chase, Fortria Chase, Tied Cottage Chase) - have structured, historic races through the season that promote specific competition and comparison of equine ability and characteristics in relation to the Festival race for which they are a precursor.
With that structure lacking and unnecessary in the novice versions it leads to a kind of "open season" where performances of almost any kind that, in wild theory, closely resemble two mile ability are given reference towards the Championship event in March, often quite serious reference too. However, in any Arkle Chase, the extraordinary demands of the race for novices means that only one or two have the physical capability to play a leading role in the event - it is just far too demanding an experience for any horse not specifically suited to the race. So around ten or twelve horses may be "put forward" as viable for the race through the season, but knowledge of the race means that only two horses (sometimes one or three) can ever be viable for the contest once the day arrives.
The lack of structured appreciation of what the Arkle Chase as a race demands is the first reason as to why the word "form" is continually used for this race and its hurdling equivalent, despite its relevance being low. "X has the best form" or "the best form over two miles is..." are common and strongly believed in phrases, but when viewed with a certain amount of detachment they are very peculiar things to say, as if the best "form" - one horse beating another in winter, for example - means that, in March, that horse will win that duel again along with beating any other horse, regardless of a large number of other analytical considerations, ones that are far more important than "form" at any given juncture.
For the Arkle Chase of the last six or seven years (i.e. recently) the winner was the best horse in the race, the horse with the most residual class over fences (as well as hurdles in some cases). But the "form" of that horse through the season will have been looked upon discouragingly at various stages: the arena of betting often produces a philosophy of doubt, a mood of questioning and critiquing at every turn, of seeking perfection and positives even where they are not required. And where, rarely, "form" manages to be shunted out of the general analytical frame, its dreaded companion "value" stands by, ready to question "the price" of a potential runner. Consider the following "form" and "price" issues:
2008: Tidal Bay does not contest a race over 2m until early February, so has no 2m "form" until then. In that race he is beaten by an inferior rival and doesn't jump fluently; his 2m "form" is poor and his most recent run a defeat, but he wins the Arkle easily by thirteen lengths, jumping well. (High residual class over hurdles, three easy novice chase wins over middle distances prior).
2009: Forpadydeplasterer won a modest novice chase first time up, just, all out. He was then beaten three times consecutively, finishing second in all three Grade One contests so in defeat his "form" was not good enough, but he goes on to win the Arkle. (Had been classy over hurdles.)
2010: Sizing Europe's "form" was questionable, having "beaten little" in two novice chases at odds on and then when even money being challenged at the last fence when his rival fell. He won that race, the rival who fell still went off 5/2f in the Arkle, bled and finished 8th as Sizing Europe won. (He looked set to win a Champion Hurdle until injuring his back after two out.)
2011: Captain Chris, only very recently, is the textbook example. Beaten 10L on his first start, and then 10L again on his second start. Then beaten nearly 5L by the same rival that beat him 10L in his last race. Then beaten again over 21f. Four consecutive "form" defeats, all at different tracks and at different trips. He won in February, a three runner race by thirteen lengths when a 2/5f. His "form' was nowhere near the "required level". He won the Arkle fairly comfortably, beating a future Champion Chaser. (Was unbeaten over hurdles but no residual class of note in those runs.)
2012: Sprinter Sacre won his three novice chases by a combined 46L but many were still consumed by the "form" asking "what did he beat" and many were happy to hunt alternative "value" at every turn as his price went from 10/1 to 8/11, winning the Arkle easily by 7L.
2013: Simonsig's two novice chase wins came in the space of a week, on heavy ground, and by 84L. "Form" that was not worth anything; he won the Arkle despite carrying an infection into the race.
The Reality of Physicality: Four defeats in a row did not change Captain Chris's physical potential; Finian's Rainbow (right) lacked the maturity on the day to match his plentiful talent
For the Arkle Chase of the last six or seven years (i.e. recently) the winner was the best horse in the race, the horse with the most residual class over fences (as well as hurdles in some cases). But the "form" of that horse through the season will have been looked upon discouragingly at various stages: the arena of betting often produces a philosophy of doubt, a mood of questioning and critiquing at every turn, of seeking perfection and positives even where they are not required. And where, rarely, "form" manages to be shunted out of the general analytical frame, its dreaded companion "value" stands by, ready to question "the price" of a potential runner. Consider the following "form" and "price" issues:
2008: Tidal Bay does not contest a race over 2m until early February, so has no 2m "form" until then. In that race he is beaten by an inferior rival and doesn't jump fluently; his 2m "form" is poor and his most recent run a defeat, but he wins the Arkle easily by thirteen lengths, jumping well. (High residual class over hurdles, three easy novice chase wins over middle distances prior).
2009: Forpadydeplasterer won a modest novice chase first time up, just, all out. He was then beaten three times consecutively, finishing second in all three Grade One contests so in defeat his "form" was not good enough, but he goes on to win the Arkle. (Had been classy over hurdles.)
2010: Sizing Europe's "form" was questionable, having "beaten little" in two novice chases at odds on and then when even money being challenged at the last fence when his rival fell. He won that race, the rival who fell still went off 5/2f in the Arkle, bled and finished 8th as Sizing Europe won. (He looked set to win a Champion Hurdle until injuring his back after two out.)
2011: Captain Chris, only very recently, is the textbook example. Beaten 10L on his first start, and then 10L again on his second start. Then beaten nearly 5L by the same rival that beat him 10L in his last race. Then beaten again over 21f. Four consecutive "form" defeats, all at different tracks and at different trips. He won in February, a three runner race by thirteen lengths when a 2/5f. His "form' was nowhere near the "required level". He won the Arkle fairly comfortably, beating a future Champion Chaser. (Was unbeaten over hurdles but no residual class of note in those runs.)
2012: Sprinter Sacre won his three novice chases by a combined 46L but many were still consumed by the "form" asking "what did he beat" and many were happy to hunt alternative "value" at every turn as his price went from 10/1 to 8/11, winning the Arkle easily by 7L.
2013: Simonsig's two novice chase wins came in the space of a week, on heavy ground, and by 84L. "Form" that was not worth anything; he won the Arkle despite carrying an infection into the race.
The Reality of Physicality: Four defeats in a row did not change Captain Chris's physical potential; Finian's Rainbow (right) lacked the maturity on the day to match his plentiful talent
The second reason is a lack of suitable language to explain the underlying reasons for different curves of changeability regarding the development of horses of different ages and profiles. The task is to get to know the horses personally. In timely fashion, the current novice chase season in Ireland provides an example of great clarity regarding the problems many people experience. As the following is a personal commentary relating to events that have already happened, a reference to those events being predicted from early January is here in the "Felix Yonger" section (note the slightly dismissive reference to Trifolium by way of balance).
At the start of the season, Champagne Fever was the favourite for the Arkle Chase, which made sense. Having won the Festival Bumper in 2012 he went on to win a very strong renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle the following year. For much of his novice hurdling season there had been a general expectation that he would be running in a longer race, a feeling emphasised by a lacklustre run (probably with a virus) in the Slaney Novices Hurdle over 20f, then appearing to rely on a strong behind the bridle distribution of energy over 18f in the Deloitte Novices Hurdle. He thrived subsequently, was praised for his "speed" as well as stamina by connections, and was dropped down to the minimum trip where he won from the front, displaying excellent tactical pace and the ability to execute subtle pace-change ups, despite being closely hunted by two future Champion Hurdle contenders. It was a run that clearly earmarked him as a top class racehorse. As the Arkle Chase can often require strong running power from behind the bridle (or stamina) as well as the ability to stay close to a top class pace gallop, Champagne Fever was without question the leading Irish runner for the race and the leading player overall.
Roughly two seconds of jumping action changed this emphatically in the minds of many people. Having outclassed the field comfortably over 20f on debut, Champagne Fever ran over 17f (Soft) in the Grade One Racing Post Novices Chase at Leopardstown. This is where a strange analytical mist descended. The key aspect of the race - not identified by many - was just how easily Champagne Fever was travelling and jumping at a fast pace that was produced in part by the fact that Defy Logic is a "fast front-runner", albeit with not as much class. This led to Defy Logic making two slight but notable errors; each time afterwards he had to be urged briefly but visibly by his jockey to close up alongside Champagne Fever again. The latter was doing it all very easily, Ruby Walsh deciding to hold on to his horse rather than press his advantage when Defy Logic erred, something he later questioned himself on. Whether it was simple exuberance or lack of concentration Champagne Fever then had an errant two seconds two out, taking off too early and crashing through the fence with his girth (not unlike Al Ferof in the 2012 Arkle). His jockey later relayed how after that fence it can be difficult to get running again due to a slight uphill camber and with his chance gone, probably winded, he was allowed to coast home in third.
It is a common occurrence for mistakes, illnesses and generally poor runs to be encircled quickly by the philosophy of doubt. Odds change, betting preferences alter, expectations adjust; sometimes quickfire decisions on the whole constellation of a horse's capabilities are snapped off and locked down. This is fairly normal. It can be a positive and a negative: instinct can direct the mentality both ways. Analytically, however, it is the overall profile that remains absolutely central for this event (as the brief historical overview above shows). A fall for a novice being aimed at the Arkle Chase is a worrying sign because this usually indicates a fundamental flaw in the physical technique and structure of the horse. Falls in this division occur through excessive pressure on breathing and/or existing areas of pain; running at a level that requires a speed of movement, coordination, anticipation and precision that is not in keeping with a horse's level of residual class; or simple immaturity. In all cases this is indicative of a horse that if making the contest in March will be unable to cope with the incredible physical demands of the race. Mistakes are different; they are common; they are practice. Finian's Rainbow (to use this example) was the well touted favourite (eventually) in 2010 and much like Tidal Bay in 2008 his run prior to the Arkle bordered on error-strewn. It certainly lacked fluency. Although he was beaten into second place, when he ran in the Arkle his jumping was flawless. As was Tidal Bay's in victory. Physical preparation is a continuous process.
The writing in the link referred to above covered the "perfect form storm" illusion that so confused those who were attempting to link the largely irrelevant "form" of the Irish novice chasers. The point need not be belaboured, so with the key theoretical points in place we can move onto the runners themselves, and get to know them as individuals (personal preference indicated by descending order).
Valdez faces a tough examination. He was quite limited over hurdles in the context of this race and his toughest race was in March last year but not at the Festival, when struggling in heavy ground in Sandown's Imperial Cup, beaten 63L from an official rating of 135 (Had previously struggled on heavy ground that season also). We can estimate from this that Valdez was given ample chance to give indications of residual class but failed to do so. His novice chase campaign has been straightforward and he has been successfully guided away from deep underfoot conditions. However, the races have been generally weak affairs and his Newbury exertions propelled his handicap mark above 150. In that race on good ground the initial pace was relatively strong and Valdez made notable errors early at the second and sixth. Later in the race when his opponents had ceased to be of any relevance he jumped notably right before straightening accurately for the last two fences. At Doncaster on his most recent start he again provided errors early on and the key here is not the mistakes but their context. In small fields he is racing from last position because he is naturally enthusiastic: they want him to settle. He doesn't pull notably hard but he is keen to race quickly and for the Arkle Chase the problem arises whereby he is at the rear of the field, keen to 'get on with it' and making slight errors which taken together in a high class race will knock his rhythm significantly and make progress through key race transitions difficult.
The other aspect of those factors combined is his energy distribution, which is skewed towards the earlier parts of his races. At Newbury the opposition fell away and on good ground he was able to maintain his strong running power (relative to his level of class) but at Doncaster on rain-softened winter ground he was unable to reel in the front-running Arnaud. After jumping four out at Doncaster he was notably shaken up by his jockey and was clearly transferring his energy behind the bridle at that stage - some way out given the class of the contest. After three out his jockey asked him to race proper but he looked to be tiring (and probably was). However, the leader was not extending away and Thornton simply allowed his horse to breathe and gallop going to two out, gathering and holding his horse. He was probably expecting Arnaud to run out of petrol and tire he did, quite dramatically after the last fence where one brief surge of energy took Valdez past his fading rival and on to victory. It was a race characterised by uneven distributions of energy by the first and second in particular, and Fox Appeal in third was more efficient, able to track Valdez without threatening to overhaul him. Early race positioning, jumping at speed, energy distribution, fluency of leaps and lack of residual class combine to temper enthusiasm for Valdez, although it would be remiss not to point out the potential for physical strengthening given the enforced closure of his trainer's yard and not having raced for eight weeks as a result. This has to be placed in the context of his innate physicality also, which even when allowing for increased fitness still puts the bar too high for a deep Grade One effort.
Rock On Ruby reflects the analytical struggle that can occur when a "trend" or "stat" is not properly understood. Some Arkle Chase winners are also the "highest rated hurdler" in the field. Put another way this simply means that the horse with the most residual class in the race wins, which is not really a surprise. Just as often however such horses are beaten, because their physicality and/or career progression is not well suited to an Arkle Chase. Rock On Ruby has an official hurdles rating of 167 but Grandouet's is 166. Consideration of their respective chasing efforts shows Rock On Ruby to have had the equivalent of two exercise canters against two or three rivals; Grandouet started his season with two lung-bursting races in top company and was then still sent into battle a third time in unsuitable conditions. The reason underpinning that diversity of demands is physicality: Rock On Ruby has had at least two breathing operations but it has reached a stage where, at nine years of age, his connections do not wish to risk season-ending problems with their horse by stressing his breathing system on soft ground, or in other words giving him a hard race. That physical fragility no doubt underpinned the split amongst his owners at the start of the season: four of the six wished to stay over hurdles; two wanted to go chasing. That is why his first run was over hurdles and why his two subsequent chase runs were in the softest or easiest races possible. Rock On Ruby's mentality had also shown signs of that physical strain: his runs prior to the defence of his Champion Hurdle crown last season had not been illuminating with headgear required to maintain his overall focus.
Rock On Ruby has had an excellent career at the highest level: second in a Neptune Novices Hurdle, winner of a Champion Hurdle, runner-up in a Champion Hurdle. But his powers are naturally fading - if he had continued to run over hurdles this season his official rating would have lowered still further leaving Grandouet as the highest rated hurdler with "form figures" of U22. If his breathing holds, if his mind and body can sustain more pain, Rock On Ruby could run yet another fine Festival race, but in this different discipline any cracks that exist in his physicality and mentality will be chiselled wider apart by the extreme demands of this race.
A horse to also have undergone at least two breathing operations is Trifolium, in addition to "a bit of a problem with a back leg" according to his trainer. Following a hectic six-race heavy ground novice season prior to the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Trifolium performed with great credit on better ground at Cheltenham, finishing third behind Darlan and Cinders And Ashes. His eighth run saw a return to heavy ground and a narrow defeat in the Grade One equivalent at Punchestown. Eight races is a lot. Whether his busy season took its toll physically or whether he was simply unlucky with his physical progression is unclear, but following that long novice season his breathing and soundness faltered, leading to an absence of over eleven months. There therefore may have been an element of momentum-dependence about his progression through his novice hurdle season.
The interesting aspect of Trifolium's profile is his distribution of energy. He is a fine looking, muscular, powerful horse who can gallop with great intensity through heavy ground. In his novice hurdle season he was defeated in his first and second runs, and it was notable that for a long way through those races he looked both classy and the likeliest winner but ran out of energy deep into the race, finishing second and then third. He then won three of his next four races, in all cases winning by virtue of class and dismissing his rivals very much in the "On" mode of his bridle ratio. He wasn't challenged by any horse with similar ability and his powerful, prominent galloping well within his comfort zone led to visual demolitions. His defeat in amongst that run was very different: So Young at that time was also a top prospect - he would later finish a close and dramatic third in a high class renewal of the Neptune Novices Hurdle - but despite Trifolium travelling smoothly and looking comfortable going to two out when he was asked to switch behind the bridle and transfer his energy to race proper the response was notably tame and he was almost instantly well beaten. Maybe there was a small breathing problem, too.
What is not in doubt is that when he ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in 2012, Trifolium posted a highly impressive effort. He was more or less third or close to third the whole way round, which requires a very efficient use of energy. Trifolium gallops with great enthusiasm where possible from prominent positions. His class, physical strength and power enabled him to hold that position throughout the race but what this meant was that whilst he did switch behind the bridle more fully this time his energy distribution barely changed, making no discernible profit or loss from his position in the race late on.
Transfer: Trifolium has run exceptionally well from a prominent position and is a clear third but he is unable to offer any further power from behind the bridle and his effort plateaus in comparison to his rivals
Hanging In: Trifolium does not falter but a) Cinders And Ashes has put the race to bed with a sustained surge approaching the last; b) Montbazon made his move earlier and is now tiring back into fourth; c) Trifolium plateaus; d) Darlan has come from behind Trifolium into second; e) Prospect Wells has closed Trifolium down significantly
It is very rare for an elite or potentially elite horse to be able to alter significantly his or her innate physicality. Trifolium's novice chase season suggests this also. He easily outclassed an inferior field first time out on yielding ground. He then took on Felix Yonger on Good ground but significantly Trifolium raced freely and quickly from the front (not unlike Grandouet at Kempton) to such an extent that Felix Yonger's jockey later reported his horse was simply hanging on as best he could to the pace in the race. Trifolium could not sustain his own gallop and when the energy ran out from his "on" bridle comfort zone he was joined and passed easily by his rival, finishing a tired horse having had no energy to use behind the bridle approaching the last. Trifolium had engineered his own pace collapse. Next time out his role changed somewhat as the competition grew stronger. Champagne Fever and Defy Logic served up a front-running duel par excellence that Trifolium this time could not quite live with, hanging on in third before closing down the tired but safe winner. It may be that connections of Trifolium were aware of his poor energy distribution in his previous race and were simply letting their horse find his own rhythm, or perhaps the breathing system wasn't quite right. It was certainly working in the Irish Arkle next time out.
Energised: Trifolium possesses notable early and mid-race running power
That said Defy Logic burst blood vessels and Felix Yonger was unable to cope with the soft ground and Trifolium's prominent racing power and gallop over two miles. The rest were outclassed; so it is likely that what Trifolium did here was something he has long been capable of: running with power and intensity through deep ground to a level his opponents cannot match. The key question therefore relates to race transitions. Providing his breathing is okay and providing the better ground does not elicit any pain from previous soundness issues, he will have the "On" aspect of his bridle ratio seriously stretched by the high level of residual class and running ability of Champagne Fever, presumably from the front. As Trifolium will likely be tracking the leader the onus is on him to engage that leader first, if possible. This means that, without doubt, he will be required to transfer a significant amount of energy behind the bridle and then use that energy powerfully on a course with an uphill finish, fending off a strong team of runners intent on stalking the pace and pouncing late. Even if it can be said that Trifolium possesses the raw ability to achieve this, can it be said with confidence that he possesses the physicality to do so?
Dodging Bullets is equally complicated. To date he has been something of a warm-up act, showcasing his talents early in each season before making way for the headline acts in March and April. The question is whether this is related to an inability to cope with the physical demands of high class races. It is possible that he struggles for some reason in the Spring or that he finds it difficult to retain condition and strength when being trained during time away from the track. Following the 2013 Supreme Novices Hurdle (beaten 50L) and the Mersey Novices Hurdle (beaten 63L) Dodging Bullets was reported to have bled from the nose (use search facility) termed Epistaxis (EIPH) and related to problems with blood capillaries rupturing in the lungs. Following his hard race in the 2012 Triumph Hurdle (creditable fourth place) he was beaten 34L at Aintree although badly hampered at the fifth hurdle. That issue may have been related to general inexperience (mentality) as following his win this season at the Open Meeting in November his trainer admitted that: "He's come from being what I would call a wound-up flat horse to a more relaxed jumper - there's always been a bit of an issue with him mentally, but physically he's grown up a lot". Paul Nicholls can, quite rightly, be enthusiastic about his horses performing well, citing Dodging Bullets as having come back "a different horse" this season. Whether he has or not it is these strands of physicality that combine to produce the slightly peculiar profile of this horse. But that he has ability is not in doubt.
Dodging Bullets has always held a slightly elevated official rating, which is not his fault. Many were caught in the "form storm" of that rating prior to the Supreme Novices Hurdle but were undone by his unknown physical issue(s). His run behind Darlan in the Christmas Hurdle did not aid a balanced view of his potential: Darlan was a possible superstar yet Countrywide Flame fairly limited in open company elite terms. Nonetheless he has overall displayed enough residual class over hurdles to be considered as a potentially potent Arkle Chase opponent. His trainer's "different horse" comment is borne out by what must have been a productive summer of conditioning and maturation given that he was readied to begin his season in mid-October. The first half of the season campaign was clearly well planned with three runs culminating in the feature Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton over Christmas. Having mastered all three five-runner fields the obvious question loomed large: would he take in a prep run (went to the Supreme fresh last season); and what will be the effect of a sharp increase in the physical demands placed upon him when contesting a Championship event over fences.
Blood or Thunder? Dodging Bullets must prove his physicality can withstand the internal pressure engineered by a Festival race
Whatever those answers are, it is wise to not be blinded by his previous failures. He has actually been impressive in his three victories but it has to be taken into account they were achieved in a similar manner. At Kempton on debut (16f, Good) he jumped left at times but he travelled smoothly and although his reins were shaken often enough after three out to before the last this wasn't a complete transfer of energy and therefore did not result in a switch behind the bridle. It was a stretching out of his "on" bridle capacity and in that sense he answered every call and outclassed his opposition.
At Cheltenham it was similar although if anything he was stronger with his "on" bridle range, perhaps owing to the appealing downhill section whereafter he was given a target into the race by Raya Star. He outjumped and travelled past that rival easily and when shaken up with a crack of the whip to get racing up the hill he pulled further away. He had been a touch keen early on (until after the second fence), with his jockey confirming that it had been the fastest pace his horse had been asked to race at; as such some of his jumps were a little inefficient (too big) and a couple of landings a bit unbalanced but he was unaffected by any of it overall and this effort was fully within his comfort zone. His trainer was enthused but already thinking ahead (as ever), wanting to run him over Christmas but equally saying: "I won't run him on bad ground". He appeared next on soft ground at Kempton, so bad ground would need defining. That race was effectively a practice session as his main rival, Grandouet, set off quickly from the front, jumping boldly and inevitably tiring from his uneven energy distribution in unsuitable ground. Dodging Bullets again jumped notably left at the first fence (as he had done on debut) and often drifted left from there on in, raising the possibility that he was feeling or beginning to feel something physically. It may also be a simple preference or that the soft ground that had concerned his trainer originally was not to his liking - his previous two chase victories were on good ground.
"Bad ground" then defined Newbury in February where he was, perhaps surprisingly, asked to run in the Game Spirit Chase. The race confirmed the analytical suspicions relating to his transfer of energy behind the bridle - it was minimal when required. He travelled well again but in a stalking fashion: it was clear that his jockey knew he had to hold on to his horse and let him work as much as possible in his comfort zone. He did this well but over the last his main rival, Module, had already switched behind the bridle and although headed early on the run to the line, his greater reserves of energy behind the bridle saw him power past Dodging Bullets whose own finishing effort was relatively tame. The point will rightly be made about better ground helping a horse with Dodging Bullets' qualities but what the analysis suggests is that better ground will not help the horse change his energy distribution system and the Arkle will likely stretch out the "on" aspect of his bridle ratio. Aintree will suit his physicality a lot more.
The previous episodes of Epistaxis (EIPH) are a genuine concern and the physical manner of his defeat in the Game Spirit Chase underlines a curve of energy distribution that strongly favours the "on" part of his ratio. The visual style of his performances in chases to date can potentially support a view that he is quite high class but equally it has to be considered that the way in which he distributes his energy generally and specifically the lack of power he is able to transfer behind the bridle under pressure will not help his effort at Cheltenham.
Grandouet is rarely synchronised with the National Hunt calendar or the racing world generally. He has his own set of timings and desires. Potentially out of the top drawer, yet so infrequently consenting to show it - a combination as likely to fail as succeed in a Festival environment. The fundamental considerations to bear in mind regarding Grandouet are located here. This season he has posed a test to his trainer's art: softly-softly or pitched into the best of contests and his trainer has unequivocally opted for the latter. Defeated twice by Hinterland, the latter of those contests was a stinging, high class duel that left the highly promising JLT Novices Chase prospect Taquin De Seuil gasping for air back in third. As on debut, what has perhaps been surprising is how Grandouet has been unable to sustain his "on" bridle aspect deep enough into the race. Over hurdles he was an exceptional stalker, always looking for cover where possible and cruising until the last moment possible. Over fences this kind of On/Behind bridle ratio has been stretched out: he is still keen and a little headstrong in the early phases but it may just transpire that he is expending precious energy when jumping fences even though he is jumping them well in the main. He may also require - or have already undertaken - a breathing operation of some kind. The stated intention to not have a prep run may have something to do with that but even if not the key to his performance is his physicality and training programme.
Rally: Grandouet (right) ceded over a length to Hinterland after the last but, with an uphill finish, fought back to register a narrow defeat in this season's premier UK Arkle Chase trial
That is because his race transitions are not as smooth as one would expect of such a strong travelling hurdler. Admittedly his first two novice chases were hot affairs - Paul Nicholls had Hinterland ready and firing and with that the advantage of jumping experience. Nonetheless, Grandouet appears to struggle to transfer his energy smoothly behind the bridle. Over fences, so far, he goes through a stage at the boiling point of a race whereby his "on" bridle energy has taken him into contention but he cannot transfer his remaining power behind the bridle instantly, so he 'dips' slightly in this phase and any top class novice prospect can take advantage of that, as Hinterland did.
The Wayward Lad Novices Chase was symptomatic of this but perhaps more so of a breathing issue. This cannot be known for sure but the run was "interesting" in that he was asked to race on winter soft ground and to run quite hard from the front against a clearly talented rival. There had to have been little expectation of him being able to sustain his effort and the way he tired two out but then kept on indicated either a slight breathing issue, a lack of hard conditioning (referred to in the earlier link), or both. Campaigned differently he could have feasibly won three weak contests but then we, and his connections, would know relatively little about him in this division. He is capable of galloping comfortably at any pace that will be offered presumably by Champagne Fever (leading) and Trifolium (tracking) and he certainly possesses the residual class to win this contest. What Cheltenham will allow him to do is something that Sandown and Kempton never did: the chance to get a breather and "fill up" on the descent to two out, a section of the course where, in the International Hurdle of 2011, he was at his most impressive. But in saying that it cannot be overlooked that his Sandown conqueror Hinterland has the same if not slightly better tools to complete the job, looking a more straightforward proposition analytically.
Hinterland, however, is attempting "something of a Simonsig", having had only two runs in the space of four weeks (Simonsig's two runs came six days apart) and potentially going to the race "fresh". Hinterland bled when he ran at Wolverhampton in January last year and because he "wasn't right" he was put away for the spring and summer and given a wind operation. Thought to be potentially "classy" he was auditioned for a customarily ambitious career path from the very start, winning a Grade Two Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham on his first start in this county (17f, Good to Soft). He was then beaten twice in good company, skipped the Festival, and fell in the Grade One Juvenile Hurdle race at Aintree won by Grumeti. Still only four years of age, he confirmed his progress over the summer with a resounding win in a Limited Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow whereafter he was switched to fences for a novice chase campaign. He ran three times on steadily softer ground in generally strong company but each time his performance suggested all was not well physically and, despite a close but non-threatening third to Captain Conan in the Grade One Henry VIII Chase at Sandown, he could not register a win before bleeding during a Jumper's Bumper confirmed his season was over.
Too much, too soon, perhaps. Yet still, this season, Paul Nicholls has admitted to having his eye on the Queen Mother Champion Chase (if Sprinter Sacre were absent), not something the connections of any other runners would conceivably ponder. Al Ferof, for the same trainer, ran in strong open company with great credit for a novice in the Grade One Victor Chandler Chase but the inference of high residual class is not always enough on its own to emerge victorious. Hinterland's Arkle credentials from this season are classical in many ways: he has handled soft and good ground, competed at a strong pace over two miles, jumped adequately (can drill through the tops of fences and Grandouet jumped much more cleanly than him in their races together), travelled powerfully, and shown resolution when driven uphill at the finish. For all Grandouet's unpredictability he was capable of being an open company Grade One hurdler (Grade Two winner) and so far Hinterland has travelled better than him, for longer than him, and beaten him twice. It is a very high level of running ability and a demonstration of his ability to handle the kind of race transitions that undo so many Arkle Chase runners.
In terms of physicality his wind operation, like so many, has been a success (for now) although the bleeding on his fourth chase start last season has probably tempered any plans to give him more experience. His energy distribution appears to be even and tailored for his target race. Hinterland probably has one short burst of acceleration in his races once asked to transfer his energy but then is capable of staying on resolutely behind the bridle. One of the areas of concern in that respect - his available energy after injecting his pace into the contest - stems from the fact that to date he has "barrelled" quite a lot of his fences. At Sandown in the Henry VIII Chase this almost caused a significant landing problem but his jockey was able to reorganise his reins without losing momentum. However, if continually drilling through the top of his fences with his girth it will dilute his running power once asked to transfer his energy behind the bridle; it may only be a marginal impact but once setting off on the uphill climb having gone at Festival pace for the first time in his career, it could arguably prove his undoing. Cleaner jumping would make him one of the likeliest winners of this race.
Elevation: Hinterland travels powerfully through his races but needs to get higher at his fences
And the one they will all be stalking is CHAMPAGNE FEVER. In that sense, as noted earlier, little has changed from before the season started. He earned a rating of 157 after winning the 2013 Supreme Novices Hurdle by beating the now 167-rated My Tent Or Yours with Jezki back in third. It was a run that conveyed a quite sublime level of residual class over a trip widely perceived to be less than optimal. He won because he is very good, but also because he had the best energy distribution curve of the three market leaders. The contention before the race was that he would "stay the trip thoroughly" and reference to his potentially abundant stamina (on breeding) was never far away. Yet he won the race with the help of his jockey by controlling his energy distribution using outstanding tactical pace under the circumstances. Being able to bound off strongly in front, amenable to being slowed down for breathers, pressing on, steadying, and all the while travelling with the kind of menace often attributed to "pure" two milers until rounding the final bend. It is true that he is not a "pure" two miler but neither is he built in the strapping three mile chaser mode that reference to him "getting any trip" might imply. He has an athletic build that facilitates crucial pace change-ups and that has been matched at the last two Festivals by a strong mentality. After rounding the final bend in the Supreme Novices Hurdle he was shaken up completely by his jockey to begin the transfer of energy behind the bridle. Yet he kept galloping at such a pace that although his pursuers closed him down and, briefly, one of them headed him, he was then able to race with power from behind the bridle to reclaim the lead and pull away slightly for victory. It was an exhibition of elite class race transitions.
Neck Stretch: Head down having led a high quality field for nearly two miles, Champagne Fever (grey) finds more power behind the bridle than his pursuers
The Racing Post Novice Chase that caught the imagination of so many was in the process of being a similar affair, only over fences it looks more dramatic. The ability to run from the front that fast and to do it easily or within the comfort zone whilst maintaining jumping accuracy (until two out) is rare. It was reminiscent of Sizing Europe and Mad Max in the 2010 Arkle itself and it is interesting to note that Sizing Europe, despite having the stamina to see out over two and half miles strongly, was either tying up on the run to the line (lack of energy) or idling but his advantage was reduced on the run to the line by a staying-on Somersby. As noted elsewhere, what Champagne Fever was doing easily was more of an effort and more demanding for Defy Logic and, for different reasons, Trifolium. Had his jockey allowed it, Champagne Fever could have pressed on at either point where Defy Logic made slight mistakes (ATR Replay: Fence 5, ~2m00s; and Fence 9, ~3m00s) using his tactical pace to pressure his rival before slowing and going again, whereby Defy Logic would have been clearly behind him. As it was he was held on to whilst his galloping partner rejoined the front line and that horse took full advantage of an over-ambitious leap to jump into the lead and gallop away for victory. He would burst blood vessels on his next start, potentially indicating the extent of the effort involved for him in this race.
Champagne Fever's trainer is content to suggest his horse is a three mile chaser in the making, that "he would get any trip", despite four of his Grade One runs to date being over 17f or less, with the other at 18f. That kind of suggestion is something his trainer is fond of generally but whilst it is certainly possible at this stage of his career there is nothing to suggest either in his physicality or mentality that increased distance is desirable. Champagne Fever is not a big, bruising chaser and his enthusiastic mentality is given free reign by his high levels of residual class, allowing him the option to dominate his opponents from the front. In that respect it can be noted how his physicality closely resembles that of Cue Card, who would have won an average Arkle Chase easily and was only denied in his year by one of the best two mile chasers of recent times. Champagne Fever may take in another run but so long as that run is satisfactory overall it will do little to alter the stunning overall profile he has developed for this race. Unlike last year where Simonsig was the only viable candidate for the race, the structural depth of the division this season is understandably deeper. If Champagne Fever's mentality betrays him at any point, the analysis suggests that the Henry VIII Sandown duo will be more than willing to run him down.
At the start of the season, Champagne Fever was the favourite for the Arkle Chase, which made sense. Having won the Festival Bumper in 2012 he went on to win a very strong renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle the following year. For much of his novice hurdling season there had been a general expectation that he would be running in a longer race, a feeling emphasised by a lacklustre run (probably with a virus) in the Slaney Novices Hurdle over 20f, then appearing to rely on a strong behind the bridle distribution of energy over 18f in the Deloitte Novices Hurdle. He thrived subsequently, was praised for his "speed" as well as stamina by connections, and was dropped down to the minimum trip where he won from the front, displaying excellent tactical pace and the ability to execute subtle pace-change ups, despite being closely hunted by two future Champion Hurdle contenders. It was a run that clearly earmarked him as a top class racehorse. As the Arkle Chase can often require strong running power from behind the bridle (or stamina) as well as the ability to stay close to a top class pace gallop, Champagne Fever was without question the leading Irish runner for the race and the leading player overall.
Roughly two seconds of jumping action changed this emphatically in the minds of many people. Having outclassed the field comfortably over 20f on debut, Champagne Fever ran over 17f (Soft) in the Grade One Racing Post Novices Chase at Leopardstown. This is where a strange analytical mist descended. The key aspect of the race - not identified by many - was just how easily Champagne Fever was travelling and jumping at a fast pace that was produced in part by the fact that Defy Logic is a "fast front-runner", albeit with not as much class. This led to Defy Logic making two slight but notable errors; each time afterwards he had to be urged briefly but visibly by his jockey to close up alongside Champagne Fever again. The latter was doing it all very easily, Ruby Walsh deciding to hold on to his horse rather than press his advantage when Defy Logic erred, something he later questioned himself on. Whether it was simple exuberance or lack of concentration Champagne Fever then had an errant two seconds two out, taking off too early and crashing through the fence with his girth (not unlike Al Ferof in the 2012 Arkle). His jockey later relayed how after that fence it can be difficult to get running again due to a slight uphill camber and with his chance gone, probably winded, he was allowed to coast home in third.
It is a common occurrence for mistakes, illnesses and generally poor runs to be encircled quickly by the philosophy of doubt. Odds change, betting preferences alter, expectations adjust; sometimes quickfire decisions on the whole constellation of a horse's capabilities are snapped off and locked down. This is fairly normal. It can be a positive and a negative: instinct can direct the mentality both ways. Analytically, however, it is the overall profile that remains absolutely central for this event (as the brief historical overview above shows). A fall for a novice being aimed at the Arkle Chase is a worrying sign because this usually indicates a fundamental flaw in the physical technique and structure of the horse. Falls in this division occur through excessive pressure on breathing and/or existing areas of pain; running at a level that requires a speed of movement, coordination, anticipation and precision that is not in keeping with a horse's level of residual class; or simple immaturity. In all cases this is indicative of a horse that if making the contest in March will be unable to cope with the incredible physical demands of the race. Mistakes are different; they are common; they are practice. Finian's Rainbow (to use this example) was the well touted favourite (eventually) in 2010 and much like Tidal Bay in 2008 his run prior to the Arkle bordered on error-strewn. It certainly lacked fluency. Although he was beaten into second place, when he ran in the Arkle his jumping was flawless. As was Tidal Bay's in victory. Physical preparation is a continuous process.
The writing in the link referred to above covered the "perfect form storm" illusion that so confused those who were attempting to link the largely irrelevant "form" of the Irish novice chasers. The point need not be belaboured, so with the key theoretical points in place we can move onto the runners themselves, and get to know them as individuals (personal preference indicated by descending order).
Valdez faces a tough examination. He was quite limited over hurdles in the context of this race and his toughest race was in March last year but not at the Festival, when struggling in heavy ground in Sandown's Imperial Cup, beaten 63L from an official rating of 135 (Had previously struggled on heavy ground that season also). We can estimate from this that Valdez was given ample chance to give indications of residual class but failed to do so. His novice chase campaign has been straightforward and he has been successfully guided away from deep underfoot conditions. However, the races have been generally weak affairs and his Newbury exertions propelled his handicap mark above 150. In that race on good ground the initial pace was relatively strong and Valdez made notable errors early at the second and sixth. Later in the race when his opponents had ceased to be of any relevance he jumped notably right before straightening accurately for the last two fences. At Doncaster on his most recent start he again provided errors early on and the key here is not the mistakes but their context. In small fields he is racing from last position because he is naturally enthusiastic: they want him to settle. He doesn't pull notably hard but he is keen to race quickly and for the Arkle Chase the problem arises whereby he is at the rear of the field, keen to 'get on with it' and making slight errors which taken together in a high class race will knock his rhythm significantly and make progress through key race transitions difficult.
The other aspect of those factors combined is his energy distribution, which is skewed towards the earlier parts of his races. At Newbury the opposition fell away and on good ground he was able to maintain his strong running power (relative to his level of class) but at Doncaster on rain-softened winter ground he was unable to reel in the front-running Arnaud. After jumping four out at Doncaster he was notably shaken up by his jockey and was clearly transferring his energy behind the bridle at that stage - some way out given the class of the contest. After three out his jockey asked him to race proper but he looked to be tiring (and probably was). However, the leader was not extending away and Thornton simply allowed his horse to breathe and gallop going to two out, gathering and holding his horse. He was probably expecting Arnaud to run out of petrol and tire he did, quite dramatically after the last fence where one brief surge of energy took Valdez past his fading rival and on to victory. It was a race characterised by uneven distributions of energy by the first and second in particular, and Fox Appeal in third was more efficient, able to track Valdez without threatening to overhaul him. Early race positioning, jumping at speed, energy distribution, fluency of leaps and lack of residual class combine to temper enthusiasm for Valdez, although it would be remiss not to point out the potential for physical strengthening given the enforced closure of his trainer's yard and not having raced for eight weeks as a result. This has to be placed in the context of his innate physicality also, which even when allowing for increased fitness still puts the bar too high for a deep Grade One effort.
Rock On Ruby reflects the analytical struggle that can occur when a "trend" or "stat" is not properly understood. Some Arkle Chase winners are also the "highest rated hurdler" in the field. Put another way this simply means that the horse with the most residual class in the race wins, which is not really a surprise. Just as often however such horses are beaten, because their physicality and/or career progression is not well suited to an Arkle Chase. Rock On Ruby has an official hurdles rating of 167 but Grandouet's is 166. Consideration of their respective chasing efforts shows Rock On Ruby to have had the equivalent of two exercise canters against two or three rivals; Grandouet started his season with two lung-bursting races in top company and was then still sent into battle a third time in unsuitable conditions. The reason underpinning that diversity of demands is physicality: Rock On Ruby has had at least two breathing operations but it has reached a stage where, at nine years of age, his connections do not wish to risk season-ending problems with their horse by stressing his breathing system on soft ground, or in other words giving him a hard race. That physical fragility no doubt underpinned the split amongst his owners at the start of the season: four of the six wished to stay over hurdles; two wanted to go chasing. That is why his first run was over hurdles and why his two subsequent chase runs were in the softest or easiest races possible. Rock On Ruby's mentality had also shown signs of that physical strain: his runs prior to the defence of his Champion Hurdle crown last season had not been illuminating with headgear required to maintain his overall focus.
Rock On Ruby has had an excellent career at the highest level: second in a Neptune Novices Hurdle, winner of a Champion Hurdle, runner-up in a Champion Hurdle. But his powers are naturally fading - if he had continued to run over hurdles this season his official rating would have lowered still further leaving Grandouet as the highest rated hurdler with "form figures" of U22. If his breathing holds, if his mind and body can sustain more pain, Rock On Ruby could run yet another fine Festival race, but in this different discipline any cracks that exist in his physicality and mentality will be chiselled wider apart by the extreme demands of this race.
A horse to also have undergone at least two breathing operations is Trifolium, in addition to "a bit of a problem with a back leg" according to his trainer. Following a hectic six-race heavy ground novice season prior to the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Trifolium performed with great credit on better ground at Cheltenham, finishing third behind Darlan and Cinders And Ashes. His eighth run saw a return to heavy ground and a narrow defeat in the Grade One equivalent at Punchestown. Eight races is a lot. Whether his busy season took its toll physically or whether he was simply unlucky with his physical progression is unclear, but following that long novice season his breathing and soundness faltered, leading to an absence of over eleven months. There therefore may have been an element of momentum-dependence about his progression through his novice hurdle season.
The interesting aspect of Trifolium's profile is his distribution of energy. He is a fine looking, muscular, powerful horse who can gallop with great intensity through heavy ground. In his novice hurdle season he was defeated in his first and second runs, and it was notable that for a long way through those races he looked both classy and the likeliest winner but ran out of energy deep into the race, finishing second and then third. He then won three of his next four races, in all cases winning by virtue of class and dismissing his rivals very much in the "On" mode of his bridle ratio. He wasn't challenged by any horse with similar ability and his powerful, prominent galloping well within his comfort zone led to visual demolitions. His defeat in amongst that run was very different: So Young at that time was also a top prospect - he would later finish a close and dramatic third in a high class renewal of the Neptune Novices Hurdle - but despite Trifolium travelling smoothly and looking comfortable going to two out when he was asked to switch behind the bridle and transfer his energy to race proper the response was notably tame and he was almost instantly well beaten. Maybe there was a small breathing problem, too.
What is not in doubt is that when he ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in 2012, Trifolium posted a highly impressive effort. He was more or less third or close to third the whole way round, which requires a very efficient use of energy. Trifolium gallops with great enthusiasm where possible from prominent positions. His class, physical strength and power enabled him to hold that position throughout the race but what this meant was that whilst he did switch behind the bridle more fully this time his energy distribution barely changed, making no discernible profit or loss from his position in the race late on.
Transfer: Trifolium has run exceptionally well from a prominent position and is a clear third but he is unable to offer any further power from behind the bridle and his effort plateaus in comparison to his rivals
Hanging In: Trifolium does not falter but a) Cinders And Ashes has put the race to bed with a sustained surge approaching the last; b) Montbazon made his move earlier and is now tiring back into fourth; c) Trifolium plateaus; d) Darlan has come from behind Trifolium into second; e) Prospect Wells has closed Trifolium down significantly
It is very rare for an elite or potentially elite horse to be able to alter significantly his or her innate physicality. Trifolium's novice chase season suggests this also. He easily outclassed an inferior field first time out on yielding ground. He then took on Felix Yonger on Good ground but significantly Trifolium raced freely and quickly from the front (not unlike Grandouet at Kempton) to such an extent that Felix Yonger's jockey later reported his horse was simply hanging on as best he could to the pace in the race. Trifolium could not sustain his own gallop and when the energy ran out from his "on" bridle comfort zone he was joined and passed easily by his rival, finishing a tired horse having had no energy to use behind the bridle approaching the last. Trifolium had engineered his own pace collapse. Next time out his role changed somewhat as the competition grew stronger. Champagne Fever and Defy Logic served up a front-running duel par excellence that Trifolium this time could not quite live with, hanging on in third before closing down the tired but safe winner. It may be that connections of Trifolium were aware of his poor energy distribution in his previous race and were simply letting their horse find his own rhythm, or perhaps the breathing system wasn't quite right. It was certainly working in the Irish Arkle next time out.
Energised: Trifolium possesses notable early and mid-race running power
That said Defy Logic burst blood vessels and Felix Yonger was unable to cope with the soft ground and Trifolium's prominent racing power and gallop over two miles. The rest were outclassed; so it is likely that what Trifolium did here was something he has long been capable of: running with power and intensity through deep ground to a level his opponents cannot match. The key question therefore relates to race transitions. Providing his breathing is okay and providing the better ground does not elicit any pain from previous soundness issues, he will have the "On" aspect of his bridle ratio seriously stretched by the high level of residual class and running ability of Champagne Fever, presumably from the front. As Trifolium will likely be tracking the leader the onus is on him to engage that leader first, if possible. This means that, without doubt, he will be required to transfer a significant amount of energy behind the bridle and then use that energy powerfully on a course with an uphill finish, fending off a strong team of runners intent on stalking the pace and pouncing late. Even if it can be said that Trifolium possesses the raw ability to achieve this, can it be said with confidence that he possesses the physicality to do so?
Dodging Bullets is equally complicated. To date he has been something of a warm-up act, showcasing his talents early in each season before making way for the headline acts in March and April. The question is whether this is related to an inability to cope with the physical demands of high class races. It is possible that he struggles for some reason in the Spring or that he finds it difficult to retain condition and strength when being trained during time away from the track. Following the 2013 Supreme Novices Hurdle (beaten 50L) and the Mersey Novices Hurdle (beaten 63L) Dodging Bullets was reported to have bled from the nose (use search facility) termed Epistaxis (EIPH) and related to problems with blood capillaries rupturing in the lungs. Following his hard race in the 2012 Triumph Hurdle (creditable fourth place) he was beaten 34L at Aintree although badly hampered at the fifth hurdle. That issue may have been related to general inexperience (mentality) as following his win this season at the Open Meeting in November his trainer admitted that: "He's come from being what I would call a wound-up flat horse to a more relaxed jumper - there's always been a bit of an issue with him mentally, but physically he's grown up a lot". Paul Nicholls can, quite rightly, be enthusiastic about his horses performing well, citing Dodging Bullets as having come back "a different horse" this season. Whether he has or not it is these strands of physicality that combine to produce the slightly peculiar profile of this horse. But that he has ability is not in doubt.
Dodging Bullets has always held a slightly elevated official rating, which is not his fault. Many were caught in the "form storm" of that rating prior to the Supreme Novices Hurdle but were undone by his unknown physical issue(s). His run behind Darlan in the Christmas Hurdle did not aid a balanced view of his potential: Darlan was a possible superstar yet Countrywide Flame fairly limited in open company elite terms. Nonetheless he has overall displayed enough residual class over hurdles to be considered as a potentially potent Arkle Chase opponent. His trainer's "different horse" comment is borne out by what must have been a productive summer of conditioning and maturation given that he was readied to begin his season in mid-October. The first half of the season campaign was clearly well planned with three runs culminating in the feature Wayward Lad Novices Chase at Kempton over Christmas. Having mastered all three five-runner fields the obvious question loomed large: would he take in a prep run (went to the Supreme fresh last season); and what will be the effect of a sharp increase in the physical demands placed upon him when contesting a Championship event over fences.
Blood or Thunder? Dodging Bullets must prove his physicality can withstand the internal pressure engineered by a Festival race
Whatever those answers are, it is wise to not be blinded by his previous failures. He has actually been impressive in his three victories but it has to be taken into account they were achieved in a similar manner. At Kempton on debut (16f, Good) he jumped left at times but he travelled smoothly and although his reins were shaken often enough after three out to before the last this wasn't a complete transfer of energy and therefore did not result in a switch behind the bridle. It was a stretching out of his "on" bridle capacity and in that sense he answered every call and outclassed his opposition.
At Cheltenham it was similar although if anything he was stronger with his "on" bridle range, perhaps owing to the appealing downhill section whereafter he was given a target into the race by Raya Star. He outjumped and travelled past that rival easily and when shaken up with a crack of the whip to get racing up the hill he pulled further away. He had been a touch keen early on (until after the second fence), with his jockey confirming that it had been the fastest pace his horse had been asked to race at; as such some of his jumps were a little inefficient (too big) and a couple of landings a bit unbalanced but he was unaffected by any of it overall and this effort was fully within his comfort zone. His trainer was enthused but already thinking ahead (as ever), wanting to run him over Christmas but equally saying: "I won't run him on bad ground". He appeared next on soft ground at Kempton, so bad ground would need defining. That race was effectively a practice session as his main rival, Grandouet, set off quickly from the front, jumping boldly and inevitably tiring from his uneven energy distribution in unsuitable ground. Dodging Bullets again jumped notably left at the first fence (as he had done on debut) and often drifted left from there on in, raising the possibility that he was feeling or beginning to feel something physically. It may also be a simple preference or that the soft ground that had concerned his trainer originally was not to his liking - his previous two chase victories were on good ground.
"Bad ground" then defined Newbury in February where he was, perhaps surprisingly, asked to run in the Game Spirit Chase. The race confirmed the analytical suspicions relating to his transfer of energy behind the bridle - it was minimal when required. He travelled well again but in a stalking fashion: it was clear that his jockey knew he had to hold on to his horse and let him work as much as possible in his comfort zone. He did this well but over the last his main rival, Module, had already switched behind the bridle and although headed early on the run to the line, his greater reserves of energy behind the bridle saw him power past Dodging Bullets whose own finishing effort was relatively tame. The point will rightly be made about better ground helping a horse with Dodging Bullets' qualities but what the analysis suggests is that better ground will not help the horse change his energy distribution system and the Arkle will likely stretch out the "on" aspect of his bridle ratio. Aintree will suit his physicality a lot more.
The previous episodes of Epistaxis (EIPH) are a genuine concern and the physical manner of his defeat in the Game Spirit Chase underlines a curve of energy distribution that strongly favours the "on" part of his ratio. The visual style of his performances in chases to date can potentially support a view that he is quite high class but equally it has to be considered that the way in which he distributes his energy generally and specifically the lack of power he is able to transfer behind the bridle under pressure will not help his effort at Cheltenham.
Grandouet is rarely synchronised with the National Hunt calendar or the racing world generally. He has his own set of timings and desires. Potentially out of the top drawer, yet so infrequently consenting to show it - a combination as likely to fail as succeed in a Festival environment. The fundamental considerations to bear in mind regarding Grandouet are located here. This season he has posed a test to his trainer's art: softly-softly or pitched into the best of contests and his trainer has unequivocally opted for the latter. Defeated twice by Hinterland, the latter of those contests was a stinging, high class duel that left the highly promising JLT Novices Chase prospect Taquin De Seuil gasping for air back in third. As on debut, what has perhaps been surprising is how Grandouet has been unable to sustain his "on" bridle aspect deep enough into the race. Over hurdles he was an exceptional stalker, always looking for cover where possible and cruising until the last moment possible. Over fences this kind of On/Behind bridle ratio has been stretched out: he is still keen and a little headstrong in the early phases but it may just transpire that he is expending precious energy when jumping fences even though he is jumping them well in the main. He may also require - or have already undertaken - a breathing operation of some kind. The stated intention to not have a prep run may have something to do with that but even if not the key to his performance is his physicality and training programme.
Rally: Grandouet (right) ceded over a length to Hinterland after the last but, with an uphill finish, fought back to register a narrow defeat in this season's premier UK Arkle Chase trial
That is because his race transitions are not as smooth as one would expect of such a strong travelling hurdler. Admittedly his first two novice chases were hot affairs - Paul Nicholls had Hinterland ready and firing and with that the advantage of jumping experience. Nonetheless, Grandouet appears to struggle to transfer his energy smoothly behind the bridle. Over fences, so far, he goes through a stage at the boiling point of a race whereby his "on" bridle energy has taken him into contention but he cannot transfer his remaining power behind the bridle instantly, so he 'dips' slightly in this phase and any top class novice prospect can take advantage of that, as Hinterland did.
The Wayward Lad Novices Chase was symptomatic of this but perhaps more so of a breathing issue. This cannot be known for sure but the run was "interesting" in that he was asked to race on winter soft ground and to run quite hard from the front against a clearly talented rival. There had to have been little expectation of him being able to sustain his effort and the way he tired two out but then kept on indicated either a slight breathing issue, a lack of hard conditioning (referred to in the earlier link), or both. Campaigned differently he could have feasibly won three weak contests but then we, and his connections, would know relatively little about him in this division. He is capable of galloping comfortably at any pace that will be offered presumably by Champagne Fever (leading) and Trifolium (tracking) and he certainly possesses the residual class to win this contest. What Cheltenham will allow him to do is something that Sandown and Kempton never did: the chance to get a breather and "fill up" on the descent to two out, a section of the course where, in the International Hurdle of 2011, he was at his most impressive. But in saying that it cannot be overlooked that his Sandown conqueror Hinterland has the same if not slightly better tools to complete the job, looking a more straightforward proposition analytically.
Hinterland, however, is attempting "something of a Simonsig", having had only two runs in the space of four weeks (Simonsig's two runs came six days apart) and potentially going to the race "fresh". Hinterland bled when he ran at Wolverhampton in January last year and because he "wasn't right" he was put away for the spring and summer and given a wind operation. Thought to be potentially "classy" he was auditioned for a customarily ambitious career path from the very start, winning a Grade Two Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham on his first start in this county (17f, Good to Soft). He was then beaten twice in good company, skipped the Festival, and fell in the Grade One Juvenile Hurdle race at Aintree won by Grumeti. Still only four years of age, he confirmed his progress over the summer with a resounding win in a Limited Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow whereafter he was switched to fences for a novice chase campaign. He ran three times on steadily softer ground in generally strong company but each time his performance suggested all was not well physically and, despite a close but non-threatening third to Captain Conan in the Grade One Henry VIII Chase at Sandown, he could not register a win before bleeding during a Jumper's Bumper confirmed his season was over.
Too much, too soon, perhaps. Yet still, this season, Paul Nicholls has admitted to having his eye on the Queen Mother Champion Chase (if Sprinter Sacre were absent), not something the connections of any other runners would conceivably ponder. Al Ferof, for the same trainer, ran in strong open company with great credit for a novice in the Grade One Victor Chandler Chase but the inference of high residual class is not always enough on its own to emerge victorious. Hinterland's Arkle credentials from this season are classical in many ways: he has handled soft and good ground, competed at a strong pace over two miles, jumped adequately (can drill through the tops of fences and Grandouet jumped much more cleanly than him in their races together), travelled powerfully, and shown resolution when driven uphill at the finish. For all Grandouet's unpredictability he was capable of being an open company Grade One hurdler (Grade Two winner) and so far Hinterland has travelled better than him, for longer than him, and beaten him twice. It is a very high level of running ability and a demonstration of his ability to handle the kind of race transitions that undo so many Arkle Chase runners.
In terms of physicality his wind operation, like so many, has been a success (for now) although the bleeding on his fourth chase start last season has probably tempered any plans to give him more experience. His energy distribution appears to be even and tailored for his target race. Hinterland probably has one short burst of acceleration in his races once asked to transfer his energy but then is capable of staying on resolutely behind the bridle. One of the areas of concern in that respect - his available energy after injecting his pace into the contest - stems from the fact that to date he has "barrelled" quite a lot of his fences. At Sandown in the Henry VIII Chase this almost caused a significant landing problem but his jockey was able to reorganise his reins without losing momentum. However, if continually drilling through the top of his fences with his girth it will dilute his running power once asked to transfer his energy behind the bridle; it may only be a marginal impact but once setting off on the uphill climb having gone at Festival pace for the first time in his career, it could arguably prove his undoing. Cleaner jumping would make him one of the likeliest winners of this race.
Elevation: Hinterland travels powerfully through his races but needs to get higher at his fences
And the one they will all be stalking is CHAMPAGNE FEVER. In that sense, as noted earlier, little has changed from before the season started. He earned a rating of 157 after winning the 2013 Supreme Novices Hurdle by beating the now 167-rated My Tent Or Yours with Jezki back in third. It was a run that conveyed a quite sublime level of residual class over a trip widely perceived to be less than optimal. He won because he is very good, but also because he had the best energy distribution curve of the three market leaders. The contention before the race was that he would "stay the trip thoroughly" and reference to his potentially abundant stamina (on breeding) was never far away. Yet he won the race with the help of his jockey by controlling his energy distribution using outstanding tactical pace under the circumstances. Being able to bound off strongly in front, amenable to being slowed down for breathers, pressing on, steadying, and all the while travelling with the kind of menace often attributed to "pure" two milers until rounding the final bend. It is true that he is not a "pure" two miler but neither is he built in the strapping three mile chaser mode that reference to him "getting any trip" might imply. He has an athletic build that facilitates crucial pace change-ups and that has been matched at the last two Festivals by a strong mentality. After rounding the final bend in the Supreme Novices Hurdle he was shaken up completely by his jockey to begin the transfer of energy behind the bridle. Yet he kept galloping at such a pace that although his pursuers closed him down and, briefly, one of them headed him, he was then able to race with power from behind the bridle to reclaim the lead and pull away slightly for victory. It was an exhibition of elite class race transitions.
Neck Stretch: Head down having led a high quality field for nearly two miles, Champagne Fever (grey) finds more power behind the bridle than his pursuers
The Racing Post Novice Chase that caught the imagination of so many was in the process of being a similar affair, only over fences it looks more dramatic. The ability to run from the front that fast and to do it easily or within the comfort zone whilst maintaining jumping accuracy (until two out) is rare. It was reminiscent of Sizing Europe and Mad Max in the 2010 Arkle itself and it is interesting to note that Sizing Europe, despite having the stamina to see out over two and half miles strongly, was either tying up on the run to the line (lack of energy) or idling but his advantage was reduced on the run to the line by a staying-on Somersby. As noted elsewhere, what Champagne Fever was doing easily was more of an effort and more demanding for Defy Logic and, for different reasons, Trifolium. Had his jockey allowed it, Champagne Fever could have pressed on at either point where Defy Logic made slight mistakes (ATR Replay: Fence 5, ~2m00s; and Fence 9, ~3m00s) using his tactical pace to pressure his rival before slowing and going again, whereby Defy Logic would have been clearly behind him. As it was he was held on to whilst his galloping partner rejoined the front line and that horse took full advantage of an over-ambitious leap to jump into the lead and gallop away for victory. He would burst blood vessels on his next start, potentially indicating the extent of the effort involved for him in this race.
Champagne Fever's trainer is content to suggest his horse is a three mile chaser in the making, that "he would get any trip", despite four of his Grade One runs to date being over 17f or less, with the other at 18f. That kind of suggestion is something his trainer is fond of generally but whilst it is certainly possible at this stage of his career there is nothing to suggest either in his physicality or mentality that increased distance is desirable. Champagne Fever is not a big, bruising chaser and his enthusiastic mentality is given free reign by his high levels of residual class, allowing him the option to dominate his opponents from the front. In that respect it can be noted how his physicality closely resembles that of Cue Card, who would have won an average Arkle Chase easily and was only denied in his year by one of the best two mile chasers of recent times. Champagne Fever may take in another run but so long as that run is satisfactory overall it will do little to alter the stunning overall profile he has developed for this race. Unlike last year where Simonsig was the only viable candidate for the race, the structural depth of the division this season is understandably deeper. If Champagne Fever's mentality betrays him at any point, the analysis suggests that the Henry VIII Sandown duo will be more than willing to run him down.
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