Neptune Novices Hurdle 2014: Towards Raceday

* Preliminary Thoughts on the race are here
* Personal preference is highlighted by the descending order of reference

Quality is not an act, it is a habit
- Aristotle

A race that continues to provide for runners with very high potential. Even when just taking the recent past into account: Mikael d'Haguenet rattled off a six-timer in his winning season; Peddlers Cross went down by a length to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle; First Lieutenant came second in the RSA Chase and second in the Ryanair Chase; Simonsig won the Arkle Chase; and The New One is among the favourites for the Champion Hurdle having won the International Hurdle. This is a tough roll-call to get in line for.

The identifiably robust The Tullow Tank secured two winter Grade One victories to show a level of class that perhaps exceeded the expectations of his connections, winning the Future Champions Novices Hurdle by 8L at Leopardstown. In that race he was obviously well on top at the end of the race but the same was also true for his win in the Royal Bond, despite the much narrower winning margin. In terms of physicality what can be seen on the racecourse has also been clearly stated by his trainer: "He was impressive the last day [at Leopardstown] in that the further he went the better he was...He can race on and off the bridle so [jockey] Danny (Mullins) did well because he's not the easiest ride", and that impression would be confirmed later on in the Deloitte Hurdle over 18f. 

Shoulder Press: The Tullow Tank (right) has size and power on the front end

His physicality is underpinned by the presence of strapping, powerful shoulders. He is a horse of notable size and as such is a much different proposition to Faugheen, for example. He most likely lacks the potential residual class of that horse but a defining aspect of physicality in general is how the underlying engine is used and to that end The Tullow Tank's work in the second half of his races is an admirable strength. In the Royal Bond (Dec 1, goodish ground) he raced prominently in third or fourth; a signpost towards his On/Behind bridle ratio came approaching and rounding the final turn as his reins were being shaken to get closer and once round the bend he began to switch behind the bridle - some way out for a two mile hurdle race. There was no loss of ground and once energised he began his task of wearing down the leader without allowing the rival chasing him much of a look in, powering home in sustained fashion to be well on top at the line. 

In the Future Champion Novices Hurdle (Dec 27, Soft) the class of race, the minimum distance and the ground likely conspired to make the early part of the race the most demanding he had faced. His jockey later reported that at one point along the back of the course he thought he was going to struggle - the strong wind was affecting his horse too, he said - but The Tullow Tank persevered and found his level subsequently. As previously these were not smooth race transitions but the horse either had the class, the force of will or both to keep rolling and jumping and, faced with the request to race from behind the bridle, decided not to stop answering until the jockey told him to, demolishing a suspect field by eight lengths. "The formbook" showed a dual Grade One winner with both wins at two miles and - extraordinarily - the Racing Post awarded him the pace analytic "quickened" during his win at Leopardstown. The person or persons who did so may wish to review the race, as what they suggested to be sharp acceleration was actually the complete opposite kind of forward momentum.

The Tullow Tank had already been transferring his energy behind the bridle rounding the final turn - again notably early for a two mile contest. King Of The Picts, in the lead, went under the whip upon entering the straight and it was the smooth travelling Moyle Park that posed the greatest win threat. The Tullow Tank was shaken up completely as it appeared the leader may just keep going and Moyle Park was still untroubled. There was then a long phase of running approaching the last hurdle where the following occurred: The Tullow Tank finally applied the full extent of his energy behind the bridle, galloping powerfully but not quickly down the outside; Moyle Park in second had nothing left to give once asked to switch behind the bridle, most likely owing to a physical problem (he has not raced since, at the time of writing); and King Of The Picts, the 33/1 outsider that had been under the whip for the entire straight, finally tired from his efforts: the leading duo visibly decelerated and fell in a hole at precisely the same time as The Tullow Tank was reaching the peak of his stamina gallop reserves, sending him on as they toiled to win by 8L. Understanding the physicality and performance type of the runners immediately makes obvious the extent to which this race fell apart, for all that what The Tullow Tank achieved was highly commendable in many ways.

This created yet another "perfect form storm" where prior to the Deloitte Novices Hurdle (18f) the spread of expectation across racing media platforms that a dual two mile Grade One winning horse would win again on his way to winning the Supreme Novices Hurdle (back at two miles) appeared limitless. And effortless, despite his running style being anything but. He was beaten easily, even over a trip that would technically help his obvious stamina, and immediately cited by connections as needing more distance to be effective. In the Deloitte he ran well enough, but he did not appear entirely comfortable over many of his hurdles, and his head was at times slightly off to the side, as if he was feeling something physically. Nonetheless this was without doubt his most impressive run of the season. Once in pursuit of Vautour off the final bend his energy distribution seemed more even that it had in the past. It still notably favoured the "Behind" aspect of his bridle ratio, of course, and he was under the whip on the run to the last, whereas Vautour was still well within his comfort zone having jumped and travelled with impressive athleticism. But The Tullow Tank did not err mentally and galloped hard to keep the 3L gap consistent all the way to the line. The extra distance of the Neptune will suit him very well indeed, but it remains unlikely that he will have the gallop pace class to hold his position sufficiently in a race this demanding.

The unbeaten Red Sherlock is not all that much of a different type to his Irish rival. He has slightly more defined size and power from front to back and his runs indicate a clear preference for stamina. There are one or two mental and physical quirks with him also, however. He showed a hint of immaturity in a poor race at Southwell (21f, Good) where between the second last and last hurdles he had to have his neck shaken and received a sharp enough whip crack for a contest that was never in doubt. To his credit, Red Sherlock understood what was being asked of him and despite staring down the last hurdle a little completed his task well. His next experience at Wetherby (20f, Soft) was an equally weak race but again there were signs of a slightly porous mentality. Tactically there was no inclination revealed to race him among horses or to give him experience of that kind; he ran from the front, stamina and a patent class advantage assured. He won the race easily without having to race behind the bridle or receive any kind of communication from his jockey, but of his own volition - it could have been due to the shadows of the rails along his running line - he ran down the last two hurdles quite drastically to the left and, as if to say he did so on purpose, flashed his tail as he coasted to the line.

Tail Up: Red Sherlock (left) has youthful quirks but mature physical strength

These kinds of things can be overplayed; it can also be said that horses with character often possess the ability to match it and the likelihood is that he is simply a young novice with plenty to say for himself in easy races. His mind was much more focused for his most taxing race of his season, when forced to run straight, hard and true against a talented rival at Cheltenham in deep ground (21f, Heavy). There he faced a rival with much more his own level of ability in the shape of Rathvinden, a second tier horse from the Mullins stable in comparison to their number one hope Faugheen. Rathvinden was in the process of running a deep race in the Grade Two Neptune trial race at Warwick (21f, Heavy) in January when he crashed out of the race three from home. That race had been earmarked for Royal Boy until he was switched to the rearranged Tolworth Hurdle and the race was won by Deputy Dan having outpaced and then outstayed the future Betfair Hurdle winner Splash Of Ginge (third) by 16L and Masters Hill (second) by 9L. The race was run at an above average gallop in the conditions with the pace put into the race by the enthusiastic Creepy and having remained in rear for half the race the trio of Deputy Dan, Rathvinden and Splash of Ginge were racing proper from some way out once they made their forward moves. The somewhat delayed point to consider is that Rathvinden had exerted a fair amount of energy prior to falling and travelled over to Cheltenham only two weeks afterwards, so whether that affected his maximum running potential against Red Sherlock is hard to gauge.

Either way he ran a fine race but gave best to Red Sherlock in a prolonged, stamina-sapping duel in fading light (no shadows on course). Here Creepy and Aubusson ensured a decent gallop but they were easily left behind once the gallop downhill turning for home had been completed. Red Sherlock moved a length ahead of his rival and shaken up to transfer his energy behind the bridle with a crack of the whip he flashed his tail to make the point. What cannot be doubted is that Red Sherlock galloped hard and true all the way up the straight and climbed the hill with a resolution that meant his rival could never get alongside, Rathvinden's jockey accepting defeat fifty yards from the line having given everything to no avail. The deep ground and ensuing war off the bend suited Red Sherlock's physicality very well but it left the impression that similar ground may be necessary if the full range of his effectiveness is to be witnessed in March. Up in class once again, on better ground and in a bigger field, he is unlikely to be afforded the same kind of time and room to run the race he would prefer: horses with more residual class and elite gallop pace will be alongside him to ask him the kind of questions his physicality may not be able to answer.

Among those in waiting for him is Faugheen. Reference to Pont Alexandre (favourite but well beaten in this race last year for the same stable) is worth dismissing unless it focuses for comparative purposes on their respective physicality, which is the significant aspect. Pont Alexandre had the build of, and ran akin to that of, a strapping three mile chaser. He powered his frame through deep ground against inferior rivals but he did not do it quickly and the accompanying disparity between racecourse evidence, Festival race suitability and general expectation bordered on the enormous. Faugheen is much better situated. He is quite a narrow horse. His chest and shoulders do not offer a great deal of staying power at this stage; he is built to race quickly when required, but the engine does not necessarily cut out over longer trips. Although he is something of an unknown quantity - because he has simply outclassed all his rivals to date - that cannot be an excuse to opine that he "could be anything" when quite clearly that is not the case. He is likely to be much better over hurdles than fences, for example. We also know more about him on the racecourse than was the case with Pont Alexandre. Faugheen won a 24f Point race (as did Simonsig) before dismantling Josses Hill, who looks promising himself this season. Including his Point victory, the following in-race comments appear: "qckn clr", "quickened clear", "travelled easily...not extended", "eased into lead next...easily" and from his latest and least impressive performance, "easily". That was over three miles in heavy ground but by again outclassing inferior rivals it was a performance that strongly evidenced why three miles under Festival conditions is not something that would be particularly suitable. His On/Behind bridle ratio is very much tilted in favour of the former.

Narrow Speed: Faugheen has a smoothness of movement for specific reasons but hurdling could be more fluid

Only recently, Simonsig and The New One's "jumping" was sometimes brought up as a negative, yet both won this race comfortably, Simonsig going on to win an Arkle Chase despite carrying an infection and The New One going on to win an International Hurdle this season. Hurdling techniques are rarely perfect; they combine with or result from the physicality of the horse and the conditions in which they race on any given day. Faugheen on occasion jumps from the shoulder, so he will run to a hurdle and push his shoulders over first leaving the legs a bit stiff and straight as they go over, rather than those components working together in a more fluid movement. Such aspects of micro-analysis rarely present a problem to elite horses so if Faugheen is a top class novice in waiting his hurdling will not affect his Neptune performance in any significant way. As of yet though we have not seen him switch behind the bridle and that aspect of his physicality is still largely unknown.

Potentially elite horses that present with his kind of energy distribution curve are usually reliant to a large extent on shattering the bridle ratios of their opponents before those opponents can engage them with running power from behind the bridle. In this vein we can consider Sprinter Sacre, of course, but there does not need to be such an extraordinary level of residual class present. Un De Sceaux has a similar modus operandi, as so far does Our Conor. The salient point is that such horses can use the bulk of their energy to run at an elite pace for much longer than their opponents without coming under any pressure in racing terms because those opponents weaken earlier than would be the case in a "normal" contest. Our Conor's Triumph Hurdle was an example of this kind of energy-plus-class spike, which is why he did not have to switch behind the bridle against moderate opposition thus creating the impression of a spectacular performance. Moved into open company, Hurricane Fly (naturally) was of sufficient class to put him under pressure and the response was notably tame behind the bridle. This is also the problem facing Un De Sceaux. It is a running style that finds expression most often in novice company, where with a horse of this kind opponents are likely to be lacking in sufficient class to pose serious problems. Essentially this is the puzzle with Faugheen: the point at which he is required to transfer all available energy behind the bridle is the point at which he is potentially at his weakest, because the bulk of the energy in such horses is invested in the "On" aspect of their bridle ratio. It does not mean they cannot race or make effort behind the bridle - they can be genuinely trying; but such is the vast expense of energy that produces extraordinary levels of sustained gallop pace it is only natural that in comparison there is very little energy left should it be required at the end of the race. Simonsig may be the closest example and because his Neptune lacked Grade One rivals he won the race uncontested. So could Faugheen, unless there is a horse that has the Grade One pace to keep watch over him and the kind of bridle ratio that allows for a more even distribution of energy at this level.

ROYAL BOY may just be able to make his own acts of class a habit. His owner had Finian's Rainbow in this race in 2010 where he loomed into contention in a race that was impressively deep and rumbled into something of a helter skelter stamina war that raged behind the bridle of every runner in contention rounding the final bend. The very opposite visual image to Simonsig's year. Most others fall somewhere in between, as may this one.

Royal Boy won his 3m Point, Finian's Rainbow was unfortunate to fall when leading at the last in his. Both had one hurdles start before going up to Grade One company, Finian's Rainbow went to the Challow Hurdle (21f, Heavy, 1L third), and was then prepped by winning a moderate race in February before tackling this race. The difference comes in that Royal Boy will have had an extra season under Rules to mature physically before running in his Cheltenham target race. This could be significant as Finian's Rainbow lacked physical maturity and strength in both his Neptune and Arkle attempts, before winning a Champion Chase at the age of nine. So a key aspect of assessing Royal Boy's Neptune potential relies on knowledge of the extent to which he has matured and strengthened in his own right but also comparatively to Finian's Rainbow would be interesting to know too.

To that end Royal Boy offers a fairly natural potential conundrum, because it can sometimes be difficult to assess that potential through the mist of powerful connections. Certainly his regular jockey had a similar struggle, as he opted to choose the year younger Josses Hill in the rescheduled Tolworth Hurdle. All of which is compounded by the fact that Royal Boy was not among the original entries for the race, until a reluctance to send him over two and a half miles in deep ground at Warwick led him to Kempton.

Another reason was that he is "not a slow horse" by which his trainer most likely means he has a certain amount of residual class. That is borne out to an extent by his impressive first run over hurdles (narrowly defeated) against Melodic Rendezvous, before finishing third to that horse in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle where a physical issue curtailed his season. He reappeared from absence over 21f on good ground at Kempton in a novice chase - so soft ground was not essential - where again he moved as if feeling a physical problem. Given that he was then dropped back to hurdles it is likely to have been muscle problems, but no official reason was given after the race, in which he was beaten 44L.

He remained at middle distances four weeks later for a facile win in a moderate maiden hurdle (his first win under Rules) at Ascot over 22f on soft ground. He was impressive in travelling easily within his comfort zone until shaken up towards the last to stride away. Markedly up in class - back to the Grade One he tried to win last season - and the professionalism and energy distribution were similar. Prominent the whole way and moving strongly into the lead rounding the final bend he moved smoothly behind the bridle to begin a war with his stablemate on the run to the last, the pair pulling eleven lengths clear of the remaining runners. What was notable was that for a horse better suited to middle distances, Royal Boy was not stretched out by either the ground or the pace of this two mile contest and he showed tenacity to battle back from being marginally nosed out after the last to master his rival before the line.

Touchdown: Josses Hill hits the turf first but Royal Boy begins to gather his powers behind the bridle

It may transpire that Royal Boy is the most professional of the Neptune runners, by which it is meant that he will handle everything about the occasion and the race the best and thus not shed any unnecessary energy. His smooth race transitions, even energy distribution and finishing mentality underpins an On/Behind bridle ratio that appears highly attuned to middle distances, better ground and top class novice opposition. There is also a sense of quiet understatement from his connections, happy to stay in the shadows: the rearranged Tolworth was quickly forgotten and much of the post-race attention centred on the poor display from The Liquidator. Yet from the very outset of his career Royal Boy has tangled with a horse that is now a Champion Hurdle outsider and Royal Boy's connections had no hesitation committing to Grade One contests from the beginning of his career. Faugheen beat Jossies Hill in "that" Bumper by a considerable margin and they are two quite different types of horse. It could be that Royal Boy and Faugheen are more closely matched, especially with ten hurdles to negotiate.