Champion Hurdle 2014: Towards Raceday

* Personal preference is highlighted by the descending order of reference (pacemakers excepted).
* Annie Power will be assessed when the intention is clear to run in this race.

Five horses in a line going over the last hurdle (six if adding in Annie Power). That is the image that a general survey of reflections on this race expects. Theoretically and on the surface any one of the front five in the betting could win; Champion Hurdles punish minor errors as much as they promote on-the-day performances, but in a season with (still at this stage) significant depth, there can appear to be a valid variety of potential winners.

However, in any Elite National Hunt race there are invariably only two or sometimes three viable winners once the last obstacle is approached and/or cleared. The theoretical term for this overall process, applied uniquely in analytical terms to National Hunt racing, is entropy. Even if five or more horses were to approach the last obstacle in a line it is almost certain that two or more of them would be physically compromised, unable to continue their efforts to the level required. A good example from Champion Hurdle history is the 2005 edition. The three-horse war to the line is well known but there were two others that had nothing left to give after the last. A highly competitive race with three elite horses bound to each other in the run to the line; but three is still quite unusual. The demands of an elite Festival race replete with the peak physical preparation and ability of its contestants forces different rates of entropy upon them, because the physicality of most runners is in some way not ideally suited to what is required for the race winner. That the three runners from the 2005 renewal were so equally matched is what made the finish so peculiar, as well as exciting.

Of the five leading contenders this season, on all available evidence, two of them may just lack the residual class of the other three. This does not mean that they cannot run on the day into the top triumvirate, both of them have the potential, with more time, to improve their performances.

None more so than Our Conor who created a stir when winning the Triumph Hurdle by fifteen lengths. The performance was labelled afterwards in broadly historic terms, as if stardom beckoned, but what in fact occurred was a high class horse beating an ordinary cluster of horses, and some of those were not physically mature enough to cope with the race conditions either. Moving into open company is always a completely different test, even if the transition is made smoothly. A large number of "classy" novices actually lack residual class because what they display in their winning season is often momentum-dependent: this means that in the flow of a season whilst racing, training and racing again they develop a level of ability that reinforces itself; their talent and physical abilities are harnessed and developed, and they become powerful and finally tuned athletes, with performances to match. The end of the season strips that away. They stop; they de-train; but horses that lack that innate level of residual class then struggle to pick up where they left off, they are not in the same vein or mentality of training and racing and, allied to that, the opposition they are now asked to face off against is a notch higher, sometimes more than that. Their physicality is changed under the pressure of more demanding competition. The truly high class novices, physical problems not withstanding, resume their curves of progression. In finishing around 6L third to Hurricane Fly in the Ryanair Hurdle on his first hurdles start for nine and a half months, Our Conor can in one sense be said to have transferred his ability into open company. In another sense though there appears to be an element of momentum-dependence about him: he was inexplicably asked to run in a flat race for his reappearance run, and to do so very early on, in October. This suggests that the horse - still only a 4yo at that point - had encountered some physical problems and that they needed him to race in some way to confirm he could begin his hurdles campaign. Given that he was made to wait until the end of the year to do so reveals that all was not one hundred percent with him and his run in behind Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown (16f, Soft) confirmed there had been problems with his physicality.

Breathless: Our Conor (right) folds into third under the glare of the dual Champion but what do we really know about his On/Behind bridle ratio?

In positive terms he moved up well to take a proper hand in the contest quite deep into the race; but it was notable how his bridle ratio was stretched out completely by that effort and he finished off his race like a very tired horse. In the Irish Champion Hurdle physical improvement was certainly evident. He moved with greater strength and power and went deeper into the race, heading Hurricane Fly with a better jump only for the reigning champion to resolutely put him to the sword on the run to the line. Again though, Our Conor wilted visibly. The physical difference between juvenile and open company emerged quite clearly. In the Triumph the "spectacular" aspect of his win was that it was done via the "on" part of his bridle ratio with little else required. But what his two runs in Ireland have shown is that there is a question mark regarding the "behind" aspect. His distribution of energy is not at this stage as even as it needs to be. He went from cruising ominously through the race and to just after the last, to sharply behind the bridle without much effect. His transfer of energy in this sense was so limited that Hurricane Fly was pulling away quite rapidly the faster the winning line came to them, such was the extent of Our Conor's energy dilution.

Our Conor is clearly a top class prospect. The tricky question analytically is whether or not his uneven On/Behind bridle ratio is a symptom of physical immaturity in a young horse or an innate, technical aspect of his physicality. If it is the latter he will be undone in the Champion Hurdle for sure; if it is the former will a further six weeks of recovery, training and strengthening be enough for him to sustain a battle from behind the bridle for much longer than he has been able to so far.

Jezki, too, has the severe physical demands of the Champion Hurdle to answer. The three races he has lost over hurdles have come in the three most significant races. In the Supreme Novices Hurdle he travelled well behind Champagne Fever and My Tent Or Yours but could not get past either, a mistake at the last hurdle sealing his fate; in the Ryanair Hurdle he suffered interference but only because he was not travelling with enough purpose to extricate himself with tactical pace, but he galloped on well once in the clear, without making any indent in the gap to the winner, who had originally glided past him quite effortlessly by contrast; and it was a similar story in the Irish Champion Hurdle where he was the first to switch behind the bridle and race proper but again could not do so with anywhere near enough power to overhaul the three horses in front of him at any point. Jezki doesn't pull through keenness and his energy distribution is quite even, perhaps too even. In the face of a strongish gallop (Supreme) he was comfortable but unable to get racing effectively behind the bridle (even before the last hurdle); in the face of a more tactical gallop he couldn't muster the elite pace change-up that is required in such cases, something Hurricane Fly has long mastered. Jezki, for example, does not have the in-running comment "quickened" in his profile as yet.

The optimal range of his energy distribution is likely to be very central, not unlike that of Oscar Whisky. Jezki can probably track any elite pace, but over two miles it drains his bridle energy to an extent that leaves him unable to impact the last stages of a race at that distance. All of this must of course bear in mind that he is only six years of age and may still be developing physically and more physical strength would help him cope with the full demands of an elite two mile race. Nonetheless that race would most likely still need to be run at a strong pace, something that is often erroneously taken for granted even in Festival races. As pointed to below, were Un De Sceaux to take his place in the field that would narrow the tactical range of the race and potentially favour those who are best chasing a strong but legitimate gallop. Jezki can acquit himself well in those circumstances, which did not materialise in the Irish Champion Hurdle either. The problem is that the strength of the race at Cheltenham may overpower him at this stage and he looks to have a similar physical imprint to Zarkandar. The Aintree Hurdle may see Jezki at his most effective and threatening.

Hunter: Jezki's lack of tactical pace change-ups was evident in the Supreme Novices, Ryanair Hurdle (below) and Irish Champion Hurdle

It is not difficult to understand why Hurricane Fly has not quite hit the heights of the UK's "public imagination and admiration" whilst clearly being an extraordinary and historic two mile hurdler. Prior to this season his wins in Ireland were largely facile. He won a thrilling Champion Hurdle in 2011 but was soundly beaten the following year following continual, niggling physical problems. He returned to win again last season in historic but not stylish fashion and therein lies the rub, for a Champion Hurdle is associated with an element of raw speed and excitement, and that was lacking in his performance. The other obvious reason is that in the UK he would only rank around fourth or fifth on a stellar list of recent thrill-seekers: Kauto Star won five King George Chases; Big Buck's strung together four World Hurdles consecutively and it would in all likelihood have been five but for injury; Bobs Worth achieved his own history, winning three different races and in consecutive seasons at the Cheltenham Festival and now attempts a fourth; and Sprinter Sacre is The Boss Man, the apotheosis of strut. Hurricane Fly has his place, but that place is among and for many just behind those equine stars hence a measure of ambivalence when attempts are made to push him higher than where he naturally rests.

That would change a little were he to win a third Champion Hurdle in four years at the age of ten, an achievement that would rightly shine the starry lights upon him, however he achieved it. The overriding sense, one that requires no explanation, is that this time he has to push past too many rivals, past the hungriest, fastest pack he has faced since 2011. Simple individual entropy will undo him at some point, as it will Big Buck's, as it did Kauto Star. Analytically his task would be made all the harder by the presence of his heart-on-sleeve galloper stablemate Un De Sceaux. The master of tactical pace change-ups, Hurricane Fly was stretched off the bridle at the half way point last year by a strong gallop that was false and unable to be maintained. This time that gallop, when Un De Sceaux falters, will be continued by at least two and possibly three horses with elite class, youth and power on a progressive developmental curve. For those choosing to think (as is their right) that "it was the same last year", the last sentence was not applicable last year; it is a very different race this time around.

Which does not mean the best two mile hurdler of his generation cannot win; it means whatever his limitations are they will be exposed far more ruthlessly than last year and that, analytically, is what tempers enthusiasm. His customary workmanlike seasonal debut locked away, he showed the new Irish youngsters exactly what it means to be potentially elite and full of hope as opposed to simply elite and having to deliver. He travelled comfortably in rear, moved smoothly around the outside and put the race to bed quickly. Leopardstown, where he is eight from eight, and soft ground in a small field: opponents need not apply; it was much the same story in the Irish Champion Hurdle, too, only it unfolded differently. There he ran in second of the four runners, launched his challenge but was eyeballed by Our Conor at the last. Hurricane Fly had to quickstep the hurdle - it wasn't a fluent jump - but incredibly (not unlike The New One at Kempton) as soon as he landed he was able to start motoring instantly, besting his main pursuer and with an iron mentality run hard and true to the line, pulling away impressively at the end.

At Cheltenham, as his trainer and jockey freely admit, his performances have not been as imperious as they would like or expect. Better ground and a festival elite gallop pace stretches out his energy distribution, making the middle part of the race his strongest, which seems counter-intuitive given it was around that point where he has struggled visually in the last two renewals. Yes and no. Last year he was obviously not as smooth or quick in the early part of the race, which led to his jockey having to physically ask him to gather his paces but the response was quite impressive. It is worth bearing in mind that Hurricane Fly was never that far away from the strong travelling ("fast") Grandouet so he was never detached in any way, far from it. He won the race thereafter by gradually closing down the leaders from four out to the final bend where he joined Rock On Ruby for the lead; once away from the final bend he didn't put a lot of distance between himself and his inferiors, most likely because he was just galloping on at one pace with heart and desire and the effort of that was highlighted towards the line, where he and his pursuers all appeared to tire dramatically, an indicator of just how much energy they had all used by the time they arrived at the last hurdle. Yet in 2011 it was different: he cruised through most of that race which was again strongly run (Overturn handed the baton to Peddler's Cross), but he was taking his jockey into the race far more easily, to the extent that Ruby Walsh only really began to ask his horse to start racing proper approaching the last. To the structural depth of the race corresponds the depth of energy reserves needed to prevail in that race: Hurricane Fly's fourth biggest test will demand the deepest reserves of energy yet.

Responding: Having already used up more energy than expected, Hurricane Fly begins the descent

Switch: Unlike 2011 Hurricane Fly is switching fully behind the bridle around the bend, finding around 2L for pressure

Maintenance: Because he has been racing behind the bridle for some time, the gap has not altered; galloping at one pace off the final bend was enough to win the race, the hard work had already been done

The decision to keep My Tent Or Yours over hurdles may have had many strands of thought. The same owner lost the hugely promising Darlan to a fatal fall last season and his enigmatic former Champion Hurdler Binocular was retired. Under different ownership, the stable had tried unsuccessfully for two seasons to allow Grandouet to showcase his talent, missing the race then falling in it. This constellation of factors probably led to My Tent Or Yours deserving of his chance and Grandouet being switched to a campaign over fences. This is mentioned because to date My Tent Or Yours travels with a power and a thunder that is reminiscent of Sprinter Sacre: it is not a simple keenness but a sheer force of will to run through the race with a level of power that corresponds to a high level of innate talent. It is incredible to watch but not at all efficient. Having disposed of handicappers in the Betfair Hurdle - again tanking through the race - he met is elite level match in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, in large part because he was hacking for a full mile and a half at a faster pace than his jockey wanted to allow. He challenged at the last, stayed and battled, but the far more energy efficient Champagne Fever justifiably kept him at bay, confirming himself a high class dual festival winning horse in his own right.

Generation X: Three closely matched future elite horses but with very different forms of energy distribution. The analytics of physicality decided the race

His Aintree win ended his novice season as emphatically as he would begin anew in open company in the Fighting Fifth. In both cases he was far better than his opponents, so the "tanking" and energy shedding were unimportant. It nearly caught him out yet again in the Christmas Hurdle, however, when although not as dramatically as in the Supreme Novices he was still insistent on speaking to his jockey continually. The key point with this aspect of his physicality is that over fences the natural forward propulsion in his movement will be boosted or favoured going over fence after fence: he will actually save energy and lengths compared to most of his rivals because for him it will be easy but others will have to expend extra energy to deal with the obstacle at pace. Sprinter Sacre doesn't do much racing at the end of his races because (long) before then he has snapped the bridle ratio of his rivals. Over hurdles the whole motion of jumping is far less pronounced so My Tent Or Yours' energy is not being put to use as he tanks because he is gaining little compared to his opponents and they are using their energy better in the latter part of the race. His class alone can beat most, but not all. Not least because his hurdling is not always fluent; he is probably preoccupied with the conversation with his jockey and sometimes the hurdles appear as an inconvenience as opposed to a part of his job. Again, fences remove that problem; big things in the way focus the mind.

My Tent Or Yours' On/Behind bridle ratio over hurdles is therefore quite fixed at elite level. As is obvious by now it heavily favours the former without being at the expense of the latter, as Kempton proved. He has battled hard and true when switching behind the bridle in both the Supreme Novices and the Christmas Hurdle but as those two results show the effects of his earlier stage racing style can swing the result either way depending on any number of unforeseen race variables.

The Christmas Hurdle was an exceptionally strong race. As they approached the final turn, The New One put so much pace into the race that by by the time they turned into the straight proper not only was everything bar My Tent Or Yours beaten there and then, but The New One himself had to switch behind the bridle and race from a long way out. He had gone around the bend without any noticeable effort, it was a devastating injection of galloping class, one that was matched by My Tent Or Yours who, finally settled not long ago, was sent into stalking mode, held together for as long as possible. Away from the second last hurdle The New One was asked for it all, the behind the bridle power that saw him run away with the Neptune Novices hurdle; and My Tent Or Yours was told to race proper in pursuit. He did so with relish. Two top class racehorses had pulled some thirty lengths away from their field and were head down, behind the bridle, pouring it on against each other. My Tent Or Yours clawed back the length of his rival and they took off over the last at the same time. Remarkably, despite crashing his front legs through the hurdle and landing askew, The New One picked up again immediately at racing pace alongside his rival, but the slightest loss of momentum and My Tent Or Yours' slicker jump ceded the advantage to the latter, who fought past his rival, both of them all out. All of this on soft to heavy tiring ground. It was an epic war.

Eyes front: A long, sustained and pulsating duel that will be replayed in March

The analytics were covered by the jockeys after the race. In My Tent Or Yours' case McCoy spoke about not being able to fire his horse at his hurdles, a combination of a tactical early gallop making his horse keen (as usual, in fairness), having a job to hold him together at his hurdles as it was (“I couldn’t let him fly at one because he was doing enough as it was and if he had I wouldn't have held him."), and the testing ground. McCoy continues to play down his horse's merits, as he had done similarly after Newcastle, but his horse is shouting over him and he will again in the Kingwell Hurdle.

Ulysses S. Grant once said: "In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten then he who continues the attack wins". This is the acid test of mentality for THE NEW ONE. At Kempton on deep ground with talented but by comparison moderate opposition bar his main rival, the gallop had been understandably limited which is why his jockey asked The New One to put the pedal down after jumping three out, which is some distance. "Nothing we did suited him. It was just very annoying. I wanted to get My Tent Or Yours under pressure early enough, but I couldn't get him at it" was the view of jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, commenting on a plan devised with his trainer-father, whilst complementing the winner at the same time. On reflection they may question the merit of creating a target so early for a horse that has the physicality to track any gallop of any intensity, but the fear of being a victim of superior acceleration was uppermost in their minds. What was felt in the aftermath is that a stronger gallop from the start would have stretched out the "on" aspect of My Tent Or Yours' bridle ratio sooner leaving his "behind" capacity more diluted, something akin to that which unfolded in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, but the conditions at Kempton made that ploy difficult. At Cheltenham the gallop will be more fierce, more sustained and the belief is that while both he and My Tent Or Yours will be able to cope with that level of elite pace gallop, The New One will possibly have more reserves of energy once they switch behind the bridle, more akin to the finish of the Neptune Novices Hurdle. (Although the gallop in that race was moderate it was over much further and The New One's energy distribution was strongest at the end of the race.)

Having dispatched a lacklustre Rock On Ruby first time out, The International Hurdle at Cheltenham was a revealing race. The New One renewed rivalry with his Aintree Hurdle conqueror from last season, stalked him as that horse led the field into the home straight, passed him effortlessly as that horse was being asked a question from behind him, then possibly idled after jumping the last allowing Zarkandar back upsides, before pulling away with hands and heels when asked, to win easily by six lengths. The New One does run through the top of some of his hurdles in his races, including the last here (as at Kempton, too), but the revealing thing is how little difference it makes to his energy distribution. The Kempton example was extraordinary; here at Cheltenham he idled because he had no company and the race had been quite easy for him. The final action would have unfolded in a more natural way had Zarkandar not been hindered, but as it was that rival lost momentum and had to be gathered up again for a final charge that was short lived once The New One was asked to run away from him. It's possible too that The New One's jump at the last hurdle coincided with his natural process of switching behind the bridle a little - a notable energy shift that is present in most of his races - so the brief appearance of idling may have been nothing other than a transfer of energy phase, a shift in his On/Behind bridle ratio. What is clear is that he has a toughened, elite level mentality. He pointed to that aspect of his character in his Bumper days, finishing sixth to Champagne Fever and then, undaunted by that experience, going on to Aintree and mastering none other than My Tent Or Yours in a close finish. He who continues the attack wins.

In a race where the most effective distribution of energy will be crucial, purely in analytical terms, The New One has the most efficient and even curve. This brings to the fore the question of what kind of elite pace gallop will feature in the race, which cannot be known until much nearer the time. The presence of Un De Sceaux would greatly favour The New One and My Tent Or Yours; his absence would not hinder them necessarily but would offer Hurricane Fly more assistance. A lack of appropriate racing language, not to mention imagination, shines through the words "could be anything". Quite clearly he is anything but anything. A six year old but with only four starts under rules and none of them even remotely competitive events. He is an out-and-out front running galloper that his jockey describes as "wearing his heart on his sleeve" - a reference that usually refers to strong mental qualities that cover a slight lack of class or talent and his trainer was a little more open: "We will have to consider whether pitching him into the Champion Hurdle at this stage of his career would be the wisest thing to do".  What Un De Sceaux would offer is the kind of gallop that would help the pace-stamina and tanking-gallop qualities of The New One and My Tent Or Yours respectively. He would stretch out most of the field's bridle ratios, including Hurricane Fly's, whose class would enable a sustained response mid-race but he would not be able to claw back the kind of duel the younger pair served up at Kempton. Un De Sceaux himself would be a spent force rounding the final bend, if not before, as once approached having raced so fully, there would be no transition to be made behind the bridle at that level, no energy left to transfer. 

Without him, as trainer and jockey hinted would be the case, the emphasis swings back on to THE NEW ONE's jockey to get the tactical fractions right from wherever he is positioned in the race. On that front Sam Twiston-Davies has experienced a number of different scenarios already: The narrow defeat to At Fisher's Cross where he quickened too soon in heavy ground over 21f; the Neptune Novices Hurdle where he gathered his horse together rounding the bend to unleash a long and sustained phase of power behind the bridle; and the two very different tactical races most recently. He could not have more information to work with; his horse has the physical, mental and tactical characteristics to win under almost any conditions. Cheltenham gives him the stage to prove it.