Pre-Season:
Halfway Point:
This is just for fun. Giving reasons would run to several pages, and answer nothing, nor be particularly useful. Nonetheless, as with racing, there were a number of structural regularities and changes that could be clearly observed prior to the season starting.
In prediction order:
Manchester City gave everything to win the Premier League for the first time in the modernized competition's era. They then "partied" on the success as one of their main rivals went through a peculiar Indian Summer of strength. In finishing a well-held second and having tumbled unceremoniously out of the Champions League a further £100m or so was requisitioned to a new manager and, just as importantly, a World Cup year season loomed, ensuring maximum player commitment for maximum Brazil attention. Their players once again had no excuse for lack of performance, although some of the away displays have been unnaturally lax. It was obvious they had the best squad of players, so as long as their motivation remains fixed they should win the League.
Given their extraordinary attacking options and physicality in midfield Chelsea could not be far behind and were it not for some clear issues in the centre forward department they may well have been able to claim the Title (they still could of course). Nonetheless, more so than in previous seasons they seem to be a team of individuals, not as knitted together as they were previously under their idiosyncratic manager. The declining force of John Terry and Frank Lampard is one reason, the lack of a totemic talisman up front is another (save for references to a lack of historical tradition in the Abramovich era). But when a team can spend £30m on a player such as Willian whilst freezing out a player beginning to border on World Class in Juan Mata, then top two is generally guaranteed.
Putting Manchester United in third place was a force of will. It was in many ways a compliment to a squad that had been in decline for at least two seasons, one that had been left unattended by a manger in pursuit of a personal ending. Their previous manager had to retire with a Premier League Title and for that reason he bought one of the best Premier League strikers (when fit) and left the rest of the team to splinter away. Alex Ferguson's and Manchester United's Indian Summer combined as Manchester City eased off the pedal, but what was left for David Moyes bordered on a shambles which he himself did not help in a truly bizarre pre-season transfer market for the club. All previous forms of "influence" and "intimidation" (everyone can put their own versions in there) would clearly slip away and opposing teams now had no excuse but to attack their more illustrious rivals with a belief that they were a fading light. Whether this squad deserves to be in the top five is the more pertinent question at the halfway point. Clearly not as yet, given they lie in seventh.
Liverpool finally fell into the hands of intelligent owners, who made no mistake in employing one of the best young Premier League managers around. Years of mismanagement at boardroom and training ground level, and years of sterile (Benitez, Hodgson) and chaotic, unstructured (Dalglish) patterns of Premier League play were finally consigned to history for the foreseeable future. Now, in the hands of a potentially top class manager, a firm and proper infrastructure is being built, and for the first time this century a clearly articulated, theoretically derived and distinctive attacking pattern of play has been instilled into the players. It is a process, of course, one that takes time. The improvements have been noticeable on every level; but player quality must eventually match the technical patterns they are asked to perform and as such top three or top four would represent an outstanding achievement, one which if successful is poised to launch an even stronger assault in the seasons to come.
Arsenal added Mesut Ozil to their ranks after the prediction was made and his initial impact was manna from heaven for a team with the most distinctive, fluent and structured patterns of play in modernized Premier League history. Nonetheless, Ozil aside, Arsenal are still constrained by a squad that relies heavily on the technical development of existing players and the coaching of raw talent. They were assigned fifth mainly because of this, but their outstanding start to the season should see them secure a top three placing at least, most likely at the expense of Manchester United, which will not be lost on Arsene Wenger or the players. There may be a small trophy niggle, but Arsenal are once again only one or two players away from a cup or a League Title. It really is only money, or the use of it, that prevents them from winning silverware.
Spurs sold a World Class player and brought in seven or eight new ones amid scenes reminiscent of A.S. Bari in 1991, of which David Platt was a part. The fusion of a whole new team almost never ends well, however, and Spurs have a major task on their hands to register any kind of dressing room solidity, team mentality and cohesive patterns of play. Some highly talented players should enable them to discomfort anyone on their day, however.
Everton continue to perform to an extremely high level, without having the squad depth or residual class in numbers to challenge for a top four position in a League this deep. The acquisition of Lukaku on loan is a bonus for a side lacking in attacking talent, but he was released on loan for a reason by Chelsea: he can score goals and has excellent physicality but his overall play and contribution outside the box is at the moment nowhere near ready for a top Premier League club. Martinez is working supremely well with the squad he was left.
Revised Guess:
City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs, Everton.
Putting Manchester United in third place was a force of will. It was in many ways a compliment to a squad that had been in decline for at least two seasons, one that had been left unattended by a manger in pursuit of a personal ending. Their previous manager had to retire with a Premier League Title and for that reason he bought one of the best Premier League strikers (when fit) and left the rest of the team to splinter away. Alex Ferguson's and Manchester United's Indian Summer combined as Manchester City eased off the pedal, but what was left for David Moyes bordered on a shambles which he himself did not help in a truly bizarre pre-season transfer market for the club. All previous forms of "influence" and "intimidation" (everyone can put their own versions in there) would clearly slip away and opposing teams now had no excuse but to attack their more illustrious rivals with a belief that they were a fading light. Whether this squad deserves to be in the top five is the more pertinent question at the halfway point. Clearly not as yet, given they lie in seventh.
Liverpool finally fell into the hands of intelligent owners, who made no mistake in employing one of the best young Premier League managers around. Years of mismanagement at boardroom and training ground level, and years of sterile (Benitez, Hodgson) and chaotic, unstructured (Dalglish) patterns of Premier League play were finally consigned to history for the foreseeable future. Now, in the hands of a potentially top class manager, a firm and proper infrastructure is being built, and for the first time this century a clearly articulated, theoretically derived and distinctive attacking pattern of play has been instilled into the players. It is a process, of course, one that takes time. The improvements have been noticeable on every level; but player quality must eventually match the technical patterns they are asked to perform and as such top three or top four would represent an outstanding achievement, one which if successful is poised to launch an even stronger assault in the seasons to come.
Arsenal added Mesut Ozil to their ranks after the prediction was made and his initial impact was manna from heaven for a team with the most distinctive, fluent and structured patterns of play in modernized Premier League history. Nonetheless, Ozil aside, Arsenal are still constrained by a squad that relies heavily on the technical development of existing players and the coaching of raw talent. They were assigned fifth mainly because of this, but their outstanding start to the season should see them secure a top three placing at least, most likely at the expense of Manchester United, which will not be lost on Arsene Wenger or the players. There may be a small trophy niggle, but Arsenal are once again only one or two players away from a cup or a League Title. It really is only money, or the use of it, that prevents them from winning silverware.
Spurs sold a World Class player and brought in seven or eight new ones amid scenes reminiscent of A.S. Bari in 1991, of which David Platt was a part. The fusion of a whole new team almost never ends well, however, and Spurs have a major task on their hands to register any kind of dressing room solidity, team mentality and cohesive patterns of play. Some highly talented players should enable them to discomfort anyone on their day, however.
Everton continue to perform to an extremely high level, without having the squad depth or residual class in numbers to challenge for a top four position in a League this deep. The acquisition of Lukaku on loan is a bonus for a side lacking in attacking talent, but he was released on loan for a reason by Chelsea: he can score goals and has excellent physicality but his overall play and contribution outside the box is at the moment nowhere near ready for a top Premier League club. Martinez is working supremely well with the squad he was left.
Revised Guess:
City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs, Everton.
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