Endurance is not just the ability to bear a hard thing, but to turn it into glory
- William Barclay
More Of That may have talked over his participation problems with Wonderful Charm, who was thrown into the heat of a World Hurdle on his second start in this country following a four and a half month absence. This race will be More Of That's fifth career start following a three month absence. He will hopefully benefit in some way from the occasion and the experience of running with some hardened elite horses.
Rule The World confirmed the abundant promise of his novice hurdle season when chasing home The New One in the Neptune Novices Hurdle at last year's Festival (21f, GS). He presents a couple of contrasts: 1) He is in the raw, powerful staying chaser mould but despite his talent a strong, deep run over hurdles in this race would suggest too strong an affinity for the smaller obstacles; a positive but more non-threatening display would infer even more improvement to come when faced with fences (relating to a combination of physicality, technique and career progression curve); and 2) His "form" has not really suggested a readiness to win this event but his trainer is renowned for skilled preparation of his horses for this Festival and the under-the-radar nature of his runs may suggest this has been a major target.
In raw terms he has been well beaten in both his Grade One attempts this season. He won a moderate contest on his reappearance and that he was made to work for his win is perhaps not surprising given it was his first run since sustaining a fractured pelvis during his last race of the previous season at Punchestown. He was then a distant fourth in the Grade One Hatton's Grace Hurdle over 20f on goodish ground at Fairyhouse, perhaps feeling the effects of his debut. Nonetheless he was now participating once more in regular training, racing and recovery and his next start in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle perhaps hinted at the way in which he was being brought along through the winter. A Grade One four-runner contest over three miles on soft ground, the gallop and class of opponent was moderate. Rule The World travelled notably easily deep into the race, as far as coming off the final bend and into the straight. He was not properly shaken up and asked to race until the run to the final flight, which he jumped with a clear advantage. Although Rule The World maintained the pace of his gallop after the last flight, he was readily mown down by Zaidpour and, interestingly, as soon as Zaidpour was past him his jockey immediately relinquished the contest and eased his mount, creating the visual impression of Zaidpour going away from him strongly and easily. What has to be considered therefore is not the "form" of the contest but what Rule The World did with his available energy in a race he looked set to win impressively, or at least just win. In a distance of around two hundred yards Rule The World went from travelling in his comfort zone to having to transfer his energy behind the bridle, which is normal. Over the next two hundred yards he went from holding an advantage of over a length to being caught and passed without much response. It appears to be the case therefore that over hurdles he may be lack the kind of energy distribution to be effective at a high level - just the kind of positive required for his staying chase career. His residual class carries him through his races over hurdles, as was evidenced by his performance in the Neptune where he had no answer to the pace injection of The New One. But over hurdles he is not gaining the kind of energy advantage that his size, power and class would accumulate over fences. As a result his opponents are able to stay with him more easily and over hurdles all he can do is transfer his energy behind the bridle but with only a moderate effect that prolongs the intensity of his previous gallop without increasing his racing power. He obviously stays three miles well enough, but the shape of his energy distribution curve is not at its strongest at the end of his races over this distance, where it will need to be in a World Hurdle. If this is correct, however, he will potentially make a very good staying chaser, further physical progress permitting.
Fences Rule: Rule The World's energy distribution system will likely be at its optimal racing ratio when he tackles fences; hurdles proffer him little advantage
In raw terms he has been well beaten in both his Grade One attempts this season. He won a moderate contest on his reappearance and that he was made to work for his win is perhaps not surprising given it was his first run since sustaining a fractured pelvis during his last race of the previous season at Punchestown. He was then a distant fourth in the Grade One Hatton's Grace Hurdle over 20f on goodish ground at Fairyhouse, perhaps feeling the effects of his debut. Nonetheless he was now participating once more in regular training, racing and recovery and his next start in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle perhaps hinted at the way in which he was being brought along through the winter. A Grade One four-runner contest over three miles on soft ground, the gallop and class of opponent was moderate. Rule The World travelled notably easily deep into the race, as far as coming off the final bend and into the straight. He was not properly shaken up and asked to race until the run to the final flight, which he jumped with a clear advantage. Although Rule The World maintained the pace of his gallop after the last flight, he was readily mown down by Zaidpour and, interestingly, as soon as Zaidpour was past him his jockey immediately relinquished the contest and eased his mount, creating the visual impression of Zaidpour going away from him strongly and easily. What has to be considered therefore is not the "form" of the contest but what Rule The World did with his available energy in a race he looked set to win impressively, or at least just win. In a distance of around two hundred yards Rule The World went from travelling in his comfort zone to having to transfer his energy behind the bridle, which is normal. Over the next two hundred yards he went from holding an advantage of over a length to being caught and passed without much response. It appears to be the case therefore that over hurdles he may be lack the kind of energy distribution to be effective at a high level - just the kind of positive required for his staying chase career. His residual class carries him through his races over hurdles, as was evidenced by his performance in the Neptune where he had no answer to the pace injection of The New One. But over hurdles he is not gaining the kind of energy advantage that his size, power and class would accumulate over fences. As a result his opponents are able to stay with him more easily and over hurdles all he can do is transfer his energy behind the bridle but with only a moderate effect that prolongs the intensity of his previous gallop without increasing his racing power. He obviously stays three miles well enough, but the shape of his energy distribution curve is not at its strongest at the end of his races over this distance, where it will need to be in a World Hurdle. If this is correct, however, he will potentially make a very good staying chaser, further physical progress permitting.
Fences Rule: Rule The World's energy distribution system will likely be at its optimal racing ratio when he tackles fences; hurdles proffer him little advantage
Whereas Zarkandar has already had a busy career at the highest level over hurdles, proving at Aintree last season why he had long needed middle distances at Grade One level. Over two miles in open company he lacked the ability to perform tactical pace change-ups which left him stranded during the phases where he transferred his energy behind the bridle. With the pressure on that racing aspect released over a longer distance, he stormed to an impressive victory over the then-novice The New One over 20f at Aintree on good ground. All the race performance indicators as well as a proven Grade One success suggested that an increase in distance would be forthcoming this season but for whatever reason - one has never really been provided - Zarkandar was again reduced to two miles for the International Hurdle at Cheltenham (17f, Good) where he was comprehensively outraced by the now more physically mature The New One, and for the Kingwell Hurdle (16f, Heavy) where he was mastered late by Melodic Rendezvous.
Either side of those runs he had raced twice against Annie Power over middle distances. First time out he gave the mare 11lbs and a hard race over 20f at Ascot on good to soft ground. They were both making their seasonal debuts and both were all out jumping the last, having duelled from some way out. The war continued for some time after the last until Annie Power outlasted her rival to score decisively by the time the finishing line approached, but even that does not tell the whole story. In light of the weight differential, Zarkandar ran a screamer. He injected his own pace to proceedings on the run to the fourth last and this simple pace change-up caught Annie Power off guard: she went through the top of four out, was untidy at three out, and left her back legs in the second last. Only when she had adapted to the pace finally did she produce a clean jump at the last. This race could be a more reliable guide to March than when the mud was flying in winter but regardless Zarkandar confirmed himself as the leading 20f Grade One horse from last season.
Full flight: The race that most closely corresponded to what will unfold in March saw Zarkandar (left) press Annie Power into all out action until the very last moments, on highly unfavourable terms
Their second meeting was more clear cut: with a moderate gallop in a three-runner contest on soft ground over 20.5f at Cheltenham with Annie Power in receipt of 7lbs, the mare moved much the better through the race and cartwheeled away at the last, seeming to relish the always softening ground and extra distance she had hinted at at Ascot. However, it has to be taken into consideration the way in which Zarkandar was anchored in rear (unlike at Ascot), purposefully setting off adrift of the other two runners indicative of a run where winning was not a primary concern, although he tried to do so on the run to the last. Zarkandar will enjoy the better ground and the stronger galloping pace of a Festival contest but it is difficult to suggest he will stay resolutely enough to reverse the placings with a horse who has bested him twice and will once again have a healthy weight concession in her favour.
Full flight: The race that most closely corresponded to what will unfold in March saw Zarkandar (left) press Annie Power into all out action until the very last moments, on highly unfavourable terms
Their second meeting was more clear cut: with a moderate gallop in a three-runner contest on soft ground over 20.5f at Cheltenham with Annie Power in receipt of 7lbs, the mare moved much the better through the race and cartwheeled away at the last, seeming to relish the always softening ground and extra distance she had hinted at at Ascot. However, it has to be taken into consideration the way in which Zarkandar was anchored in rear (unlike at Ascot), purposefully setting off adrift of the other two runners indicative of a run where winning was not a primary concern, although he tried to do so on the run to the last. Zarkandar will enjoy the better ground and the stronger galloping pace of a Festival contest but it is difficult to suggest he will stay resolutely enough to reverse the placings with a horse who has bested him twice and will once again have a healthy weight concession in her favour.
Annie Power has so far provided relatively little analytical material. She has come to the UK three times, to the credit of her connections, but in so doing she has faced the same rival twice - the first of which was highly revealing as indicated above - and the third contest was little more than an exercise canter dropped to two miles prior to a three mile Festival race. It would have been indicative of a stronger preparation method had she contested the Cleeve Hurdle but the evidence suggests she is being "nursed" to the Festival and it is likely to be her mentality that is being protected the most. At Cheltenham in the rain her physicality was a weapon: she powered through the sodden turf and surface water as if it was the most natural of things, although her jump at the last suggested either tiredness or lack of concentration. Notable in this race overall was the fact that she never really had to switch behind the bridle. She essentially beat Zarkandar by using energy from within her comfort zone not altogether unlike the style in which Oscar Whisky would saunter around the track over middle distances only to be found wanting when a completely different type of energy distribution and racing power was required.
Soaked: Annie Power (right) will have to combine the sheer physical power of her gallop with the desire she showed behind the bridle at Ascot to be effective in the World Hurdle
It may transpire that it was out of respect for the shorter distance leanings of the owner that Annie Power was not asked to race over three miles at any stage this season, for there were certainly opportunities aplenty to do so in small fields of moderate quality, and also on record is the vision of her very much as a chaser with the Arkle in mind for next season. She is clearly a horse of immense potential; but all too frequently horses for whom there are high hopes have not necessarily demonstrated on a racecourse the qualities big races demand and, specifically, there can be a tendency to project upon the horse a performance for which s/he is not designed ideally for. As favourite for the race and in the company of a four time World Hurdle winner it may be expected that she has fully demonstrated her qualities for this event, but she has not. There is nothing wrong with projecting a hugely improved performance on the big stage - she clearly has talent, power and desire - but she does not have unlimited stores of energy and there are justifiable concerns about her mental ability to settle and harness her On/Behind bridle ratio to maximum effect. Such concerns would diminish sharply should Big Buck's not line up.
In that scenario the whole complexion of the race would change, as it did last year when Solwhit won the race following an opening gallop that resembled a crawl. But with Big Buck's in the race the runners know they will at the very least be asked to race to a point somewhere near the limit of their energy reserves behind the bridle. In short, the more energy that runners in this race consume during the "On" aspect of their bridle ratio through the race, so the less energy they will have to transfer behind the bridle and sustain a lung-bursting run to the front of the field - essentially what has been seen in each of Big Buck's victories here. For sure, those opponents were being outclassed but at the same time they stood little chance precisely because of that On/Behind conflict in the way they delivered their energy through the race transitions. This race demands something quite specific that most horses just are not designed for, whereas at other times on other racecourses they can cope perfectly adequately. But in the Cleeve Hurdle At Fisher's Cross finally served notice of everything he had promised to deliver from the emphatic culmination of his novice season. He accumulated six consecutive wins each with progressive authority in particular following his victory over The New One on heavy ground over 20.5f at Cheltenham. At the Festival he won in the style of, well, Big Buck's and earned what is effectively glowing Grade One praise in this division: "stayed on strongly to draw clear final 100yds". His win at Aintree on better ground cemented the visual impression of a horse running very much in the mould of a classy but throughly tough staying hurdler: he simply outclassed them.
Along the way, soft ground cushioned the blows to a physicality that had to be managed and nursed through the season. Rarely are physical problems detailed so openly, especially when they appear to be in multiple form, but that he was suffering some kind of physical pain was made immediately apparent on his first two starts in open company leaving his trainer to reveal their full extent:
As such, as his jockey observed recently, At Fisher's Cross' performance in the Cleeve Hurdle was "his" opening gambit for the season - the first time where he had control of his race transitions, though he nonetheless had six miles of race conditioning in his system to help his "debut" effort. He began in last place, indicative of both the problems that had gone before and the desire for him to grow into the race in his own time. He spotted Big Buck's, who he would eventually catch, around five to seven lengths for most of the race. He jumped the second and third hurdles a little big but from then on he was mainly very good. As Big Buck's pressed the pace on the second circuit, McCoy moved his horse forward more, part of a move that in conjunction with Boston Bob created the "Wave Of Five" image stalking race leader Big Buck's on the descent. His gallop pace and transfer of energy phase was unproblematic but McCoy did ease his efforts approaching the last, losing a little momentum as a trade to help ensure there was no mistake and once over the hurdle he picked up again to surge at the line, just failing.
Clawback: This snapshot after the last hurdle shows the ground At Fisher's Cross made up on the run to the finishing line, a move that would have required a significant amount of available energy on deep turf
At Fisher's Cross' big positive is the way he moves into his races with progressive strength. He has the class to be close enough to the pace and/or make ground on the leaders and the type of energy distribution that is synonymous with hardened stayers, transferring a significant amount behind the bridle without losing momentum or ground, and finding the will and desire to put it to use as the race deepens. His energy distribution mirrors the stages through which it is demanded by the race, which is not the case for most runners. It is possible he will be finishing his race with the most power of all the runners; as such, providing his physicality holds out, he may be best placed to take advantage of any faltering steps ahead of him.
All of which depends entirely on whether BIG BUCK'S can sustain his effort for slightly longer than in the Cleeve Hurdle, where he ran a top class race. As is their right, a great many observers will suggest the Big Buck's of old would have won the race. But what a peculiar arrangement of the mentality to wand away 420 days of absence, miles of walking, swathes of uphill gallops and a nerveless attempt to break everything in the race just as he did every time in the Good Old Days. That he was still in front a hundred yards from the line after three miles on the front end in bottomless ground was remarkable and a reminder that but for wear and tear on a tendon he would still be far in advance of anything that stepped into the division.
Big Buck's does not have unlimited energy, nor did his rivals here, and the shape of the Cleeve Hurdle was designed by two high class horses effectively on comeback missions, and a horse of lesser ability outstripping his own physical peak after a breathing operation. Before the analytics of the Cleeve Hurdle become apparent it can be said that, with the outcome unknown, Big Buck's may "bounce"; he may regress from his comeback; he may simply be running to a much lower level than before; and that whatever he is capable of now does not include the concession of 7lbs to Annie Power. All this is possible and a potential reality, which is why the evidence from the Cleeve Hurdle suggesting he is still as good as ever takes on even more significance for understanding the outcome of the race, whatever that may be.
The snapshots will highlight the following: that the Cleeve Hurdle was a battle of physicality, available energy and its efficiency of distribution, not one of residual class. Big Buck's is first time out after 420 days; At Fisher's Cross is physically sound enough to race proper for the first time in the season, but has some miles of conditioning in the legs; Knockara Beau has hardened race conditioning having run over 26f, 28f and 26f, the last of which followed a breathing operation and brought him forward from his already strong runs in the season.
1. Knockara Beau leads, Big Buck's is prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back;
2. Quartz De Thaix is just behind Knockara Beau until forcing the pace himself at the fifth hurdle, Big Buck's remains prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back;
3. After a circuit and at the 7th of 12 hurdles Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau and Big Buck's are close together, the back three runners are closer to them, At Fisher's Cross is at the back. The front duo have alternated the pace on the first circuit ensuring a solid gallop and now take a breather, hence the field closes up. Same at the eighth hurdle;
4. After the ninth hurdle Big Buck's makes his move to press the pace and goes beyond Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau has now dropped away to third;
5. At the tenth hurdle Big Buck's leads Quartz De Thaix and Boston Bob has moved into the third place, a move that will cost him later on, Knockara Beau has dropped back to last place, behind At Fisher's Cross;
6. On the descent Big Buck's freewheels with a clear advantage probably trying to "fill up" as he is stalked by the "Wave Of Five" in a line behind him;
7. Turning for home, Knockara Beau makes instant inroads up the inner to be in second place as the "Wave Of Five" break the line behind Big Buck's; At Fisher's Cross is fourth;
8. At the last hurdle Big Buck's is leading, Knockara Beau is second and At Fisher's Cross is third.
The extent to which Big Buck's tracks, maintains and then forces the pace is made clear, whereas Knockara Beau is effectively "feeling it" mid-race but following the breathing operation is able to muster a "second wind" and races towards the front again, his mid-race break effectively conserving his energy. At Fisher's Cross runs an even race, delivered into the contest late by McCoy and continually finding reserves of energy for pressure. They both pass Big Buck's once his efforts deplete him close home. That Knockara Beau won tells us this was not a race decided by residual class levels, by how good the horses are on this day; if that were so, Knockara Beau should run in the World Hurdle and go very close, when everything we know says that is not the case.
1. Knockara Beau leads, Big Buck's is prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back
2. Quartz De Thaix is just behind Knockara Beau until forcing the pace himself at the fifth hurdle, Big Buck's remains prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back
3. After a circuit and at the 7th of 12 hurdles Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau and Big Buck's are close together, the back three runners are closer to them, At Fisher's Cross is at the back. The front duo have alternated the pace on the first circuit and now take a breather, hence the field closes up. Same order at the eighth hurdle
4. After the ninth hurdle Big Buck's makes his move to press the pace and goes beyond Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau has now dropped away to third
5. At the tenth hurdle Big Buck's leads Quartz De Thaix and Boston Bob has moved into the third place, a move that will cost him later on, Knockara Beau has dropped back to last place, behind At Fisher's Cross
6. On the descent Big Buck's freewheels with a clear advantage probably trying to "fill up" as he is stalked by the "Wave Of Five"
7. Turning for home, Knockara Beau makes instant inroads up the inner to be in second place as the "Wave Of Five" break the line behind Big Buck's; At Fisher's Cross is fourth
8. At the last hurdle Big Buck's is leading, Knockara Beau is second and At Fisher's Cross is third
On better ground with more physical strength and conditioning, Big Buck's will again run the same kind of race as in the Cleeve Hurdle. In theory he should not stop this time, as he did not stop in his four previous battles. It is as if, analytically, the three big players are on string and each thread is pulled, released and aligned more closely in accordance with changes in energy distribution and physical robustness of each horse. Annie Power will have her comfort zone running stressed more and for longer than ever before, prior to having to race proper behind the bridle; At Fisher's Cross will have to feel no pain and jump accordingly before delivering his strong energy reserves behind the bridle off the home bend; and Big Buck's will need to be half asleep as ever through the first circuit and not press the button too early if he is to sustain what had been prior to injury an unbeatable injection of pace and class.
It is hard to know for sure how closely those strings will intertwine.
All of which depends entirely on whether BIG BUCK'S can sustain his effort for slightly longer than in the Cleeve Hurdle, where he ran a top class race. As is their right, a great many observers will suggest the Big Buck's of old would have won the race. But what a peculiar arrangement of the mentality to wand away 420 days of absence, miles of walking, swathes of uphill gallops and a nerveless attempt to break everything in the race just as he did every time in the Good Old Days. That he was still in front a hundred yards from the line after three miles on the front end in bottomless ground was remarkable and a reminder that but for wear and tear on a tendon he would still be far in advance of anything that stepped into the division.
Big Buck's does not have unlimited energy, nor did his rivals here, and the shape of the Cleeve Hurdle was designed by two high class horses effectively on comeback missions, and a horse of lesser ability outstripping his own physical peak after a breathing operation. Before the analytics of the Cleeve Hurdle become apparent it can be said that, with the outcome unknown, Big Buck's may "bounce"; he may regress from his comeback; he may simply be running to a much lower level than before; and that whatever he is capable of now does not include the concession of 7lbs to Annie Power. All this is possible and a potential reality, which is why the evidence from the Cleeve Hurdle suggesting he is still as good as ever takes on even more significance for understanding the outcome of the race, whatever that may be.
The snapshots will highlight the following: that the Cleeve Hurdle was a battle of physicality, available energy and its efficiency of distribution, not one of residual class. Big Buck's is first time out after 420 days; At Fisher's Cross is physically sound enough to race proper for the first time in the season, but has some miles of conditioning in the legs; Knockara Beau has hardened race conditioning having run over 26f, 28f and 26f, the last of which followed a breathing operation and brought him forward from his already strong runs in the season.
1. Knockara Beau leads, Big Buck's is prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back;
2. Quartz De Thaix is just behind Knockara Beau until forcing the pace himself at the fifth hurdle, Big Buck's remains prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back;
3. After a circuit and at the 7th of 12 hurdles Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau and Big Buck's are close together, the back three runners are closer to them, At Fisher's Cross is at the back. The front duo have alternated the pace on the first circuit ensuring a solid gallop and now take a breather, hence the field closes up. Same at the eighth hurdle;
4. After the ninth hurdle Big Buck's makes his move to press the pace and goes beyond Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau has now dropped away to third;
5. At the tenth hurdle Big Buck's leads Quartz De Thaix and Boston Bob has moved into the third place, a move that will cost him later on, Knockara Beau has dropped back to last place, behind At Fisher's Cross;
6. On the descent Big Buck's freewheels with a clear advantage probably trying to "fill up" as he is stalked by the "Wave Of Five" in a line behind him;
7. Turning for home, Knockara Beau makes instant inroads up the inner to be in second place as the "Wave Of Five" break the line behind Big Buck's; At Fisher's Cross is fourth;
8. At the last hurdle Big Buck's is leading, Knockara Beau is second and At Fisher's Cross is third.
The extent to which Big Buck's tracks, maintains and then forces the pace is made clear, whereas Knockara Beau is effectively "feeling it" mid-race but following the breathing operation is able to muster a "second wind" and races towards the front again, his mid-race break effectively conserving his energy. At Fisher's Cross runs an even race, delivered into the contest late by McCoy and continually finding reserves of energy for pressure. They both pass Big Buck's once his efforts deplete him close home. That Knockara Beau won tells us this was not a race decided by residual class levels, by how good the horses are on this day; if that were so, Knockara Beau should run in the World Hurdle and go very close, when everything we know says that is not the case.
1. Knockara Beau leads, Big Buck's is prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back
2. Quartz De Thaix is just behind Knockara Beau until forcing the pace himself at the fifth hurdle, Big Buck's remains prominent, At Fisher's Cross is at the back
3. After a circuit and at the 7th of 12 hurdles Quartz De Thaix, Knockara Beau and Big Buck's are close together, the back three runners are closer to them, At Fisher's Cross is at the back. The front duo have alternated the pace on the first circuit and now take a breather, hence the field closes up. Same order at the eighth hurdle
5. At the tenth hurdle Big Buck's leads Quartz De Thaix and Boston Bob has moved into the third place, a move that will cost him later on, Knockara Beau has dropped back to last place, behind At Fisher's Cross
6. On the descent Big Buck's freewheels with a clear advantage probably trying to "fill up" as he is stalked by the "Wave Of Five"
7. Turning for home, Knockara Beau makes instant inroads up the inner to be in second place as the "Wave Of Five" break the line behind Big Buck's; At Fisher's Cross is fourth
8. At the last hurdle Big Buck's is leading, Knockara Beau is second and At Fisher's Cross is third
On better ground with more physical strength and conditioning, Big Buck's will again run the same kind of race as in the Cleeve Hurdle. In theory he should not stop this time, as he did not stop in his four previous battles. It is as if, analytically, the three big players are on string and each thread is pulled, released and aligned more closely in accordance with changes in energy distribution and physical robustness of each horse. Annie Power will have her comfort zone running stressed more and for longer than ever before, prior to having to race proper behind the bridle; At Fisher's Cross will have to feel no pain and jump accordingly before delivering his strong energy reserves behind the bridle off the home bend; and Big Buck's will need to be half asleep as ever through the first circuit and not press the button too early if he is to sustain what had been prior to injury an unbeatable injection of pace and class.
It is hard to know for sure how closely those strings will intertwine.
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