Luck is the residue of design
- Branch Rickey
Results from the performance of main preference in Grade One races on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday:
123 - 1FP - 115
Best results from performances of main two preferences across the same days:
122 - 141 - 113
The Triumph Hurdle and Albert Bartlett were not put through the analytical mill although in the case of the latter I would, erroneously, still have favoured the "leading players", both of whom fell.
4F4
Friday was the day of least concern, of the least amount of time spent on assessments, and of the most unquestioned acceptance of what would perform well prior to raceday. It was therefore a deserving day of surprises to end three largely successful days in analytical terms. The effort spent accumulating the initial nine Grade One write-ups led to fatigue of the Friday mind - in terms of typing time - avoiding the Triumph (always a personal preference), merely citing some initial thoughts from December for the Albert Bartlett, and a simplistic prod at the front two in the Gold Cup, however strange the finale to that event looked, having seemed expectantly straightforward going over the last fence.
Of the nine Grade One races over the first three days of the Festival, four proved correct outright and were made available on February 24 (Supreme), February 19 (Neptune), February 20 (JLT) and February 28 (Ryanair). Another was made available on March 3 (Champion Chase) as a detailed secondary preference.
Five from nine is acceptable. In a race where a shock is a real shock, the Arkle Chase denied a sixth and the Champion Hurdle possibly a seventh, where The New One was irreparably stopped in his tracks. The RSA Chase and the World Hurdle were, this year, the ones that got away and the only real disappointments of the first three days.
The emerging Race Performance Analytics (RPA's) that follow will highlight some exceptionally strong assessments and at the same time lay bare the inevitable gaps in a mental approach that can be ruthlessly exposed by Festival reality. In fact, based on an initial survey of the performances, the task of being more ruthless - in a balanced way of course - was one that was underplayed. In the meantime, Aintree awaits.
Of the nine Grade One races over the first three days of the Festival, four proved correct outright and were made available on February 24 (Supreme), February 19 (Neptune), February 20 (JLT) and February 28 (Ryanair). Another was made available on March 3 (Champion Chase) as a detailed secondary preference.
Five from nine is acceptable. In a race where a shock is a real shock, the Arkle Chase denied a sixth and the Champion Hurdle possibly a seventh, where The New One was irreparably stopped in his tracks. The RSA Chase and the World Hurdle were, this year, the ones that got away and the only real disappointments of the first three days.
The emerging Race Performance Analytics (RPA's) that follow will highlight some exceptionally strong assessments and at the same time lay bare the inevitable gaps in a mental approach that can be ruthlessly exposed by Festival reality. In fact, based on an initial survey of the performances, the task of being more ruthless - in a balanced way of course - was one that was underplayed. In the meantime, Aintree awaits.
Hi Matt, Well done, excellent effort! John F.
ReplyDeleteThanks John and your input was much appreciated! Cheltenham really is an exceptional platform for developing understanding and opinions - aiming for 8 out of 9 over the first three days next year, what could possibly go wrong?!
DeleteHi Matt, I like your new site but don't know how to contact you on it. I have some thoughts on the 2015 CH and would like to hear your early impressions on the outcome. John F.
DeleteHi John! I have a 6 month old son now so the new site is about all I can manage!! I am on twitter but fire away here would be great to hear your views
ReplyDeleteHi Matt, Thanks for replying and congratulations on the birth of your baby boy! I'll get back to you after I've seen the Christmas and Ryanair Hurdles, but I should warn you and NTD that despite the claims of Faugheen and Jezki I'm beginning to edge towards tipping The New One for the Champion Hurdle.
DeleteThanks & Don't blame ya! Far and away the most impressive of the Big3 so far but as ever it's early season and only "One Day In March" counts apparently! I didn't give Jezki the credit he deserved last season for his Supreme Novices third -- and I have a vested interest in Faugheen winning if Vautour wins the Arkle -- but still think TNO is something of a star himself. Hell of a race in prospect, have a good Christmas!
ReplyDeleteHi Matt, Happy New Year! I see the racing intelligentsia have seized on Faugheen's facile Christmas Hurdle success and now believe that Mullins' unbeaten gelding is the new Istabraq. The bookies seem to agree as the current 5/4 on offer indicates. The only problem is that the Cheltenham Festival is invariably very hard on short priced favourites ( Hurricane Fly, twice, Boston Bob and Pont Alexandre spring to mind, all of which were trained by Willie Mullins). However, I don't disagree with the pundits as I think Faugheen may well be a champion one day, but I just believe there may be a better horse in the race. Take Jezki, for example: he's the defending champion, a multiple grade 1 winner, whose runs so far this season suggest that he is being prepared to peak on March 10. Or how about Hurricane Fly, dual CH winner and already winner of 2 Grade 1s this season? Both of these have considerably more experience than Faugheen who as yet has not competed against hardened Group 1 performers. Or how about the improving Mullins' youngster who finished a close third to HF and Jezki in the grade1 Ryanair Hurdle over Christmas? And then, of course, there's my idea of this year's winner, The New One. (More to follow!) John F.
ReplyDeleteI didn't fancy TNO for last year's CH as I thought the battle he had with MTOY in that season's Christmas Hurdle would have drained both horses. It was to their credit that they finished second and third in the CH, given the exhausting nature of their previous race. I don't want to dwell too much on last year's race other than to say that TNO was extremely unlucky, having conceded around 5 lengths in distance and momentum after being baulked by the fall of Our Conor. However, I think NTD has learned a lot from last season's misfortune, having campaigned his charge more wisely, with an eye on delivering TNO at his peak on CH day. Three easy wins meant that he could sidestep Faugheen over Christmas, while picking up valuable prize money by winning the IH. TNO's warm up race in 2015 will now be the Haydock Champion Trial hurdle on January 17, which will allow NTD to properly prepare the gelding for the CH test. I remember reading somewhere that Nigel thought he could win 4 Champion Hurdles with TNO. You can see how seriously he rates the horse by his extreme nervousness and guardedness when talking about him. When asked if TNO had improved between his second and third races this season, TD said no, probably not. But you can bet your mortgage that TNO will improve for the CH. I also like the fact that placed horses in the CH often win the following year's race (e.g. Brave Inca, Punjabi, Binocular and HF were all third in the year previous to their CH victories). And while STD doesn't have the experience or nous of Walsh, McCoy or Geraghty, he does at least know TNO best. In addition, TNO's sire is King's Theatre who has an excellent record at the CF as long as Good features in the going. I am also encouraged, Matt, by your analysis of TNO as a horse that settles well and is capable of producing his strongest effort in the final stages of the race. I think TNO is a stronger horse this season, he has jumped well and hasn't really expanded as much energy as he had at the same stage last season. Given NTD's ability to produce a horse in peak form on any given day, I think TNO will be very difficult to beat. Can Faugheen win? Of course he can. But will he win? I don't think so..... John F.
ReplyDeleteBrilliant stuff John, superb.
ReplyDeleteIf I can get a few minutes here or there I'll shape some thoughts that might do your work justice!