RSA Chase 2014: Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference

Success depends upon previous preparation, and without such preparation there is sure to be failure

- Confucius 

For nearly half a century trainers of RSA Chase candidates have assured themselves and those interested that a "prep run" is not required. For nearly half a century they have been wrong. The last 49 winners of this race had run in the same calendar year. In some renewals all the main players will have had a prep run, with no "fresh" candidates, which only serves to emphasize the overall point. Rigid minds. In another twenty two years or so the length of this statistical anomaly will have matched the age at which Confucius passed away. Those betting on the race who suggest they are "not bothered" by this equine sponsored educational message are deceiving themselves but it is possible that within the riddle is a deeper meaning. For sure, preparation is important, but in open company absence did not stop Bobs Worth from winning the hardest physical test of all - the Gold Cup - having not run since December 1. It is not so much that potential RSA Chase horses need a prep run, although there are clear physiological reasons why they do. It is more to do with the fact that horses that are asked not to prepare on a racecourse are either a) not actually top class novice prospects and/or b) carrying physical problems that need managing rather than exacerbating but which are then fundamentally exposed by the demands of an RSA Chase. In some way such horses are being "looked after", whilst the real/better contenders are allowed by their connections to get out and prove it. Experience of running and defeat for RSA contenders is often crucial to their development.

The honourable First Lieutenant is an interesting recent example, given that he was "fresh" for his RSA Chase in which he was beaten by Bobs Worth (who was, simply, the better horse) but over hurdles had been prepared in exactly the same way by his trainer to win a competitive renewal of the Neptune Novices Hurdle. Chasing is far more demanding, of course, and when he was runner-up in the RSA Chase he may have been fortunate that Last Instalment, who had beaten him convincingly by 6L earlier that season in the Topaz Novices Chase, and Invictus, who had beaten Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti in the Reynoldstown at Ascot, both missed the race through injury. One day, one year, sure, the winner of the RSA Chase will buck the increasingly iron-clad trend. Of the five prominent opponents in place this season, only one is arriving fresh (Morning Assembly). 

Smad Place ran for the third time this season in February and as a seven year old he may only now be maturing into his physical capacity. It could be that he is a slightly fragile type, also. The reasoning for this stems from his ten months off the track following his Triumph Hurdle season. Following his comeback in January 2012 his trainer revealed that: 

He's had some problems and we never had him right last year [2011]. He spent most of the winter on antibiotics, and although he did well in the summer, he went and threw a splint and we couldn't get him ready.

He subsequently recorded a respectable third to Big Buck's in the World Hurdle, but was again presumably experiencing problems at the start of the 2012-13 season (beaten 39L in his two starts) and only came right in the Spring, with solid third placings to Solwhit at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. It is therefore likely that he summered well and was strong enough to begin a novice chase campaign but this time misfortune constrained him: he unseated with the race at his mercy on his chase debut and after winning comfortably on his next start his stable had to be closed down due to problems affecting many runners. He reappeared in February at a near-waterlogged Newbury to beat Sam Winner by 2L but whilst this was again meritorious he did not stamp the authority of a top novice prospect on his rival and goes to Cheltenham without experience at Graded chase level. 

Right Place What Time? Smad Place has run his best races in the second half of the season to date

That said for whatever reason Smad Place does seem to come to himself in the second half of the season. As well as overall class the question mark for the athletic grey is his energy distribution, which at the top level over hurdles was extremely even. This means he could gallop towards the front of an elite race without ever really threatening to land a blow in the contest. His latest win at Newbury was of a similar kind but at Cheltenham his opponents will have more residual class than Sam Winner - his Irish counterparts have been trading blows at Graded Chase level for most of the season.

One of whom is Carlingford Lough, who in March will be having his fourteenth chase start in just eighteen months. His main recent target was last summer's Galway Plate, which he won as a heavily backed favourite in the process ending a run of eight consecutive defeats. Perhaps the win gave him wings because following a short break over October and November he grew into a leading Grade One novice chaser. Firstly pushing Don Cossack all the way in the Drinmore Novices Chase; secondly beating Morning Assembly in the Topaz Novices Chase; and most recently being well in contention jumping the last fence in the Dr P. J. Moriarty Novices Chase against Ballycasey and, again, Don Cossack but being caught slightly short of room on the inner causing a peck on landing and a jockey exit. That he has prospered over the winter months without a summer break reveals a high level of mental toughness that cannot be ignored, especially in a race where focusing the mind is key. 

The evidence so far suggests that Carlingford Lough is a thorough stayer - he was an 8/1 favourite for the Irish Grand National (2013, pulled up) - and had stayed on well to win the Galway Plate on soft ground. His On/Behind bridle ratio stresses the "behind" aspect and because he seems to start most of his races in rear his mentality is important: he must be willing to commit himself to the contest then match and surpass what those in front of him are demanding. His best run so far came in the Topaz Novices Chase over 3m where he was able to race powerfully for a sustained period behind the bridle to get the better of Morning Assembly. Either side of that race he was perhaps just caught out for pace/gallop class when run down by Don Cossack (20f, G/Y) and in the Moriarty when trying to challenge Ballycasey's dominance. Against Don Cossack he looked to have his rival in trouble but it was likely that the shorter distance and better ground did not stretch his rival's energy reserves enough and, perhaps, the race exposed a class differential. It looked that way visually at least. It has to be considered by way of balance that that particular race was Carlingford Lough's first after his mini-break following the summer, whereas Don Cossack had run just two weeks prior. 

Carlingford Lough is a strong stayer with a toughened mentality and is unlikely to be affected in any way by being tightened for room at the last fence at Leopardstown. His biggest obstacle looks set to be conceding ground via race position to horses who in all probability have more residual class than him: his continuous race profile, the assault on prestigious handicap chases, and the fact that he is already an eight year old may just signify that connections were always fully aware of his limitations on some level. He will have Synchronised as his shadow through the race and remains a potent threat.

I Will Find You: Carlingford Lough (left) has Graded chase talent, power behind the bridle and an all-action mentality

And so enters the "fresh" horse, the one charged with turning over the hands of Confucius without touching him. That Morning Assembly has the raw ability to win based on this season's evidence is not in doubt: he has run easily with his main rivals in Ireland bar Ballycasey. But he has done so only in the first half of the season and the reason why has been stated specifically by his trainer:

It was always the plan to go straight from Christmas to Cheltenham as we don't want to over-race him. His real strong point is stamina and the RSA Chase has been the aim all along, but he's really a horse for next year. 

This is the crux of the matter. Next year he will be forced to race in open company, against hardened elite class horses and horses out of the very top drawer - the kind of experience that his trainer says he lacks now, in his novice season. If he is thought good enough for open company Graded races in the future, the aim for a top staying prospect is either to master the Cheltenham Festival or avoid it, as Paul Nicholls chose to do with Silviniaco Conti, for example. Instead, with a committed hesitation and whatever the reasons be they to do with quality or physicality, a mixed message is sent to the horse on raceday: give your all, even though we have not prepared you to do so and this, more than anything else, seals the fate of the "fresh" RSA Chase horse.

Fresh Fear: Morning Assembly will make RSA Chase history if overcoming racecourse absence to win

Barring one fall over hurdles Morning Assembly has finished first or second on every start under Rules. He has shown himself adaptable to small and large field sizes and to varying degrees of ground conditions. He was classy enough to win a Grade One novice hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last season. Having won his tussle with Don Cossack he then faced off with the steely, progressive and experienced Carlingford Lough in the Topaz Novices Chase over three miles. In that race he travelled prominently and comfortably in terrible weather but as his trainer has noted he was a little "careful" with some of his jumping, which led to some of his galloping pace advantage being shorn off. What was interesting analytically about the race was the different stages at which both transferred their energy behind the bridle. Carlingford Lough had done so out of necessity much earlier - he had to make ground from rear and his On/Behind bridle ratio strongly favours the latter aspect in this company, so getting rolling early was important. Morning Assembly's optimal bridal ratio is more central, by contrast. He was able to travel more easily through the race but that meant that he had less time to respond behind the bridle. He had begun the transfer of energy process after the final bend but had to be held together at the final fence and therefore only got racing proper after landing, whereas his main rival had been rolling behind the bridle with increasing power from some way out and mastered him late but with authority on the run to the line. With no more experience, no more miles in the legs, Morning Assembly will have to prove he can cope with more rivals pressing and harrying him through the race and then deal with other, classier horses racing proper over a longer distance than was the case in the Topaz. It is a tall order indeed.

Ballycasey made his way to the Festival last year but he was withdrawn from the Albert Bartlett Novices Chase on the morning of the race owing, officially, to abnormal blood analysis. With an infrequent racecourse appearance pattern, Ballycasey brings a sense of fragility to a tough race. Yet that he is potentially the classiest horse in the race is perhaps not in doubt and, analytically, he possesses the requisite characteristics to win the event. He was initially unextended over hurdles, winning easily twice in the manner of a potentially elite racehorse before being withdrawn from Cheltenham and running next at Punchestown, where he ran as if not at his best but was nonetheless beaten 7L into third by a horse he may meet here, Morning Assembly.

Despite always being thought of as a stayer, his trainer had no concerns about starting his novice chase season in a moderate race over 17f on good ground. Ballycasey didn't turn a hair in winning but then suffered a setback of some kind over the winter and did not reappear next until the three-runner Grade One Dr. P. J. Moriarty Chase - almost a rite of passage for future Irish RSA Chase winners. The trial race is a stepping stone and winning is by no means imperative but Ballycasey did win, making all and staying on well from the front to confirm the promise of his prior runs. The somewhat limited evidence suggests that his curve of energy distribution is quite even but that it is underpinned by a certain amount of residual class. He can probably jump and progress through any intensity of race transitions to a certain point but there has to be a concern regarding the amount of energy and intensity he will be able to transfer behind the bridle towards the end of a three mile Festival race. Class dispensed in the form of "On" bridle work within a comfort zone only carries a racehorse so far. This is not to suggest that Ballycasey cannot race effectively once forced to switch behind the bridle - he did so in the Moriarty - but lack of racecourse evidence makes it possible only to estimate the extent to which he can successfully knit together each successive race transition once faced with peak fitness competition, better ground and harder, longer running. The demands on his energy distribution curve will potentially skew the evidence generated under less demanding circumstances so far (the Moriarty was a classy race but its effects were generated by only three runners).

Class Power: Ballycasey's physique does not lend itself to intense training and racecourse frequency

His physicality must also be noted. He is not in the "bruising" or "strapping" chaser mould. He offers elegance and refinement in a way that suggests his training problems correspond to a physical constitution of silk rather than toughened leather. There is no doubting his mentality when he is sound but time and again the RSA Chase knowingly gathers in the excuses for connections to use after defeat is announced. There is a proviso amongst this. Firstly that the runners from the UK actually lack the class suggested in their runs to date (only the Reynoldstown Chase can now change that); and secondly that Ballycasey himself improves and matures for having something of a proper race over fences. The blood and thunder RSA Chase does not always materialise. It is always physically demanding but some are brutal affairs; however only recently Bobs Worth's defeat of First Lieutenant was a little more serene. In that kind of race, Ballycasey's high levels of residual class would be strongly favoured.

As is now apparent, a win for any of the four main Irish challengers would not be a surprise. But they will be separated in the race by specific racing reasons be they predictable, explicable or not. This is the attempt being made here. Small setbacks that will be revealed after the race will largely be unknown before it; there can be a difference between progression and thriving leading into the race. In many ways given that Ballycasey outpointed DON COSSACK quite readily at Leopardstown, it may seem counter-intuitive to expect the defeated horse there to prevail in the bigger event. Nor would Ballycasey confirming the form be in the least bit surprising. But as with Lord Windermere last season, the racecourse evidence strongly suggests that winning the RSA Chase is within the compass of the Gigginstown runner. 

In the Grade Two Florida Pearl Novice Chase (22f, Y) Don Cossack was jumping out of his jockey's hands, Cooper having to hold onto him on landing several times to prevent him from doing too much, often moving forward when galloping also but then restrained slightly, in so doing using up precious energy through the race which was ultimately why he was outstayed at the end of it, allied to the fact that it was in the early season stage of training. The horse that used his energy more efficiently on the day, Morning Assembly, will reoppose in March but the circumstances of their subsequent development and training programmes are very different. That November race is likely to have told his trainer most of what he wanted to know about his horse. Just two weeks later, again relishing dry ground, Don Cossack took down the Drinmore Novices Chase beating Carlingford Lough, who would then go on to beat Morning Assembly in the Topaz at the end of the month. Here, the Drinmore, early December, the efforts of his race just two weeks prior meant that Don Cossack was unable to run as effectively as before. He travelled okay but had to start switching behind the bridle notably early compared to his previous run. He then seemed to lack some strength and conditioning as Carlingford Lough, himself racing behind the bridle, pulled away a bit. What was impressive in this respect was the way in which Don Cossack responded to being organized behind the bridle and, eventually finding his breathing rhythm, finally stayed on powerfully to mow down his determined rival. He found a way to win. 

Power-packed: Don Cossack (right) did most of his racing in impressive fashion before jumping slightly left at the last fence in the Florida Pearl Novices Chase. He was still able to fight back alongside Morning Assembly, but was outstayed by a more energy efficient rival on the day

His prep run (21f Soft/Heavy) in the Moriarty signified his continued seasonal progress. It would have been surprising had he been able to move easily with the fluent class of Ballycasey on this ground at this distance but nonetheless he was far from compromised. His transfer of energy phase was notably smooth, shaken up with the reins to keep close contact with the leader approaching the final bend the switch behind the bridle began but there was no loss of momentum. Slightly behind him, Carlingford Lough was being given encouragement from the whip but Don Cossack was not: he was transferring his energy behind the bridle and after jumping the last was then asked for maximum effort and responded well. He was unable to match the class of Ballycasey over this distance, on this ground, on this day but he did not let him get away from him by too much, suggesting an examination over further and on drier ground (or ground less deep) would match the range of his energy distribution curve far more. 

Over hurdles Don Cossack ran with some illustrious names: Defy Logic, Sizing Gold, Pont Alexandre, The Tullow Tank, Mozoltov, Annie Power. And although unsuccessful in that sphere in Graded company, he was expected to emerge a tougher, more resolute and more effective staying novice chaser. He clearly summered well as evidenced by starting his campaign as early as October and he has progressed through each stage of the season, absorbing four races into his legs and responding to each physical challenge and race recovery period. He has always had great scope, a physical size and composition that would require staying distances and whilst clearly handling heavy ground he has proved his preference for drier surfaces on which he travels and jumps with alacrity. In 2011 his trainer went very close in this race with a horse that travelled supremely well throughout but who just failed to handle the final uphill demands of the contest behind the bridle. Don Cossack's On/Behind bridle ratio is more even, more atoned to the demands of this race and as was the case last year he may tell us that defeat in the Moriarty is an ideal way to prepare for the big day.

Champion Hurdle 2014: Towards Raceday

* Personal preference is highlighted by the descending order of reference (pacemakers excepted).
* Annie Power will be assessed when the intention is clear to run in this race.

Five horses in a line going over the last hurdle (six if adding in Annie Power). That is the image that a general survey of reflections on this race expects. Theoretically and on the surface any one of the front five in the betting could win; Champion Hurdles punish minor errors as much as they promote on-the-day performances, but in a season with (still at this stage) significant depth, there can appear to be a valid variety of potential winners.

However, in any Elite National Hunt race there are invariably only two or sometimes three viable winners once the last obstacle is approached and/or cleared. The theoretical term for this overall process, applied uniquely in analytical terms to National Hunt racing, is entropy. Even if five or more horses were to approach the last obstacle in a line it is almost certain that two or more of them would be physically compromised, unable to continue their efforts to the level required. A good example from Champion Hurdle history is the 2005 edition. The three-horse war to the line is well known but there were two others that had nothing left to give after the last. A highly competitive race with three elite horses bound to each other in the run to the line; but three is still quite unusual. The demands of an elite Festival race replete with the peak physical preparation and ability of its contestants forces different rates of entropy upon them, because the physicality of most runners is in some way not ideally suited to what is required for the race winner. That the three runners from the 2005 renewal were so equally matched is what made the finish so peculiar, as well as exciting.

Of the five leading contenders this season, on all available evidence, two of them may just lack the residual class of the other three. This does not mean that they cannot run on the day into the top triumvirate, both of them have the potential, with more time, to improve their performances.

None more so than Our Conor who created a stir when winning the Triumph Hurdle by fifteen lengths. The performance was labelled afterwards in broadly historic terms, as if stardom beckoned, but what in fact occurred was a high class horse beating an ordinary cluster of horses, and some of those were not physically mature enough to cope with the race conditions either. Moving into open company is always a completely different test, even if the transition is made smoothly. A large number of "classy" novices actually lack residual class because what they display in their winning season is often momentum-dependent: this means that in the flow of a season whilst racing, training and racing again they develop a level of ability that reinforces itself; their talent and physical abilities are harnessed and developed, and they become powerful and finally tuned athletes, with performances to match. The end of the season strips that away. They stop; they de-train; but horses that lack that innate level of residual class then struggle to pick up where they left off, they are not in the same vein or mentality of training and racing and, allied to that, the opposition they are now asked to face off against is a notch higher, sometimes more than that. Their physicality is changed under the pressure of more demanding competition. The truly high class novices, physical problems not withstanding, resume their curves of progression. In finishing around 6L third to Hurricane Fly in the Ryanair Hurdle on his first hurdles start for nine and a half months, Our Conor can in one sense be said to have transferred his ability into open company. In another sense though there appears to be an element of momentum-dependence about him: he was inexplicably asked to run in a flat race for his reappearance run, and to do so very early on, in October. This suggests that the horse - still only a 4yo at that point - had encountered some physical problems and that they needed him to race in some way to confirm he could begin his hurdles campaign. Given that he was made to wait until the end of the year to do so reveals that all was not one hundred percent with him and his run in behind Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown (16f, Soft) confirmed there had been problems with his physicality.

Breathless: Our Conor (right) folds into third under the glare of the dual Champion but what do we really know about his On/Behind bridle ratio?

In positive terms he moved up well to take a proper hand in the contest quite deep into the race; but it was notable how his bridle ratio was stretched out completely by that effort and he finished off his race like a very tired horse. In the Irish Champion Hurdle physical improvement was certainly evident. He moved with greater strength and power and went deeper into the race, heading Hurricane Fly with a better jump only for the reigning champion to resolutely put him to the sword on the run to the line. Again though, Our Conor wilted visibly. The physical difference between juvenile and open company emerged quite clearly. In the Triumph the "spectacular" aspect of his win was that it was done via the "on" part of his bridle ratio with little else required. But what his two runs in Ireland have shown is that there is a question mark regarding the "behind" aspect. His distribution of energy is not at this stage as even as it needs to be. He went from cruising ominously through the race and to just after the last, to sharply behind the bridle without much effect. His transfer of energy in this sense was so limited that Hurricane Fly was pulling away quite rapidly the faster the winning line came to them, such was the extent of Our Conor's energy dilution.

Our Conor is clearly a top class prospect. The tricky question analytically is whether or not his uneven On/Behind bridle ratio is a symptom of physical immaturity in a young horse or an innate, technical aspect of his physicality. If it is the latter he will be undone in the Champion Hurdle for sure; if it is the former will a further six weeks of recovery, training and strengthening be enough for him to sustain a battle from behind the bridle for much longer than he has been able to so far.

Jezki, too, has the severe physical demands of the Champion Hurdle to answer. The three races he has lost over hurdles have come in the three most significant races. In the Supreme Novices Hurdle he travelled well behind Champagne Fever and My Tent Or Yours but could not get past either, a mistake at the last hurdle sealing his fate; in the Ryanair Hurdle he suffered interference but only because he was not travelling with enough purpose to extricate himself with tactical pace, but he galloped on well once in the clear, without making any indent in the gap to the winner, who had originally glided past him quite effortlessly by contrast; and it was a similar story in the Irish Champion Hurdle where he was the first to switch behind the bridle and race proper but again could not do so with anywhere near enough power to overhaul the three horses in front of him at any point. Jezki doesn't pull through keenness and his energy distribution is quite even, perhaps too even. In the face of a strongish gallop (Supreme) he was comfortable but unable to get racing effectively behind the bridle (even before the last hurdle); in the face of a more tactical gallop he couldn't muster the elite pace change-up that is required in such cases, something Hurricane Fly has long mastered. Jezki, for example, does not have the in-running comment "quickened" in his profile as yet.

The optimal range of his energy distribution is likely to be very central, not unlike that of Oscar Whisky. Jezki can probably track any elite pace, but over two miles it drains his bridle energy to an extent that leaves him unable to impact the last stages of a race at that distance. All of this must of course bear in mind that he is only six years of age and may still be developing physically and more physical strength would help him cope with the full demands of an elite two mile race. Nonetheless that race would most likely still need to be run at a strong pace, something that is often erroneously taken for granted even in Festival races. As pointed to below, were Un De Sceaux to take his place in the field that would narrow the tactical range of the race and potentially favour those who are best chasing a strong but legitimate gallop. Jezki can acquit himself well in those circumstances, which did not materialise in the Irish Champion Hurdle either. The problem is that the strength of the race at Cheltenham may overpower him at this stage and he looks to have a similar physical imprint to Zarkandar. The Aintree Hurdle may see Jezki at his most effective and threatening.

Hunter: Jezki's lack of tactical pace change-ups was evident in the Supreme Novices, Ryanair Hurdle (below) and Irish Champion Hurdle

It is not difficult to understand why Hurricane Fly has not quite hit the heights of the UK's "public imagination and admiration" whilst clearly being an extraordinary and historic two mile hurdler. Prior to this season his wins in Ireland were largely facile. He won a thrilling Champion Hurdle in 2011 but was soundly beaten the following year following continual, niggling physical problems. He returned to win again last season in historic but not stylish fashion and therein lies the rub, for a Champion Hurdle is associated with an element of raw speed and excitement, and that was lacking in his performance. The other obvious reason is that in the UK he would only rank around fourth or fifth on a stellar list of recent thrill-seekers: Kauto Star won five King George Chases; Big Buck's strung together four World Hurdles consecutively and it would in all likelihood have been five but for injury; Bobs Worth achieved his own history, winning three different races and in consecutive seasons at the Cheltenham Festival and now attempts a fourth; and Sprinter Sacre is The Boss Man, the apotheosis of strut. Hurricane Fly has his place, but that place is among and for many just behind those equine stars hence a measure of ambivalence when attempts are made to push him higher than where he naturally rests.

That would change a little were he to win a third Champion Hurdle in four years at the age of ten, an achievement that would rightly shine the starry lights upon him, however he achieved it. The overriding sense, one that requires no explanation, is that this time he has to push past too many rivals, past the hungriest, fastest pack he has faced since 2011. Simple individual entropy will undo him at some point, as it will Big Buck's, as it did Kauto Star. Analytically his task would be made all the harder by the presence of his heart-on-sleeve galloper stablemate Un De Sceaux. The master of tactical pace change-ups, Hurricane Fly was stretched off the bridle at the half way point last year by a strong gallop that was false and unable to be maintained. This time that gallop, when Un De Sceaux falters, will be continued by at least two and possibly three horses with elite class, youth and power on a progressive developmental curve. For those choosing to think (as is their right) that "it was the same last year", the last sentence was not applicable last year; it is a very different race this time around.

Which does not mean the best two mile hurdler of his generation cannot win; it means whatever his limitations are they will be exposed far more ruthlessly than last year and that, analytically, is what tempers enthusiasm. His customary workmanlike seasonal debut locked away, he showed the new Irish youngsters exactly what it means to be potentially elite and full of hope as opposed to simply elite and having to deliver. He travelled comfortably in rear, moved smoothly around the outside and put the race to bed quickly. Leopardstown, where he is eight from eight, and soft ground in a small field: opponents need not apply; it was much the same story in the Irish Champion Hurdle, too, only it unfolded differently. There he ran in second of the four runners, launched his challenge but was eyeballed by Our Conor at the last. Hurricane Fly had to quickstep the hurdle - it wasn't a fluent jump - but incredibly (not unlike The New One at Kempton) as soon as he landed he was able to start motoring instantly, besting his main pursuer and with an iron mentality run hard and true to the line, pulling away impressively at the end.

At Cheltenham, as his trainer and jockey freely admit, his performances have not been as imperious as they would like or expect. Better ground and a festival elite gallop pace stretches out his energy distribution, making the middle part of the race his strongest, which seems counter-intuitive given it was around that point where he has struggled visually in the last two renewals. Yes and no. Last year he was obviously not as smooth or quick in the early part of the race, which led to his jockey having to physically ask him to gather his paces but the response was quite impressive. It is worth bearing in mind that Hurricane Fly was never that far away from the strong travelling ("fast") Grandouet so he was never detached in any way, far from it. He won the race thereafter by gradually closing down the leaders from four out to the final bend where he joined Rock On Ruby for the lead; once away from the final bend he didn't put a lot of distance between himself and his inferiors, most likely because he was just galloping on at one pace with heart and desire and the effort of that was highlighted towards the line, where he and his pursuers all appeared to tire dramatically, an indicator of just how much energy they had all used by the time they arrived at the last hurdle. Yet in 2011 it was different: he cruised through most of that race which was again strongly run (Overturn handed the baton to Peddler's Cross), but he was taking his jockey into the race far more easily, to the extent that Ruby Walsh only really began to ask his horse to start racing proper approaching the last. To the structural depth of the race corresponds the depth of energy reserves needed to prevail in that race: Hurricane Fly's fourth biggest test will demand the deepest reserves of energy yet.

Responding: Having already used up more energy than expected, Hurricane Fly begins the descent

Switch: Unlike 2011 Hurricane Fly is switching fully behind the bridle around the bend, finding around 2L for pressure

Maintenance: Because he has been racing behind the bridle for some time, the gap has not altered; galloping at one pace off the final bend was enough to win the race, the hard work had already been done

The decision to keep My Tent Or Yours over hurdles may have had many strands of thought. The same owner lost the hugely promising Darlan to a fatal fall last season and his enigmatic former Champion Hurdler Binocular was retired. Under different ownership, the stable had tried unsuccessfully for two seasons to allow Grandouet to showcase his talent, missing the race then falling in it. This constellation of factors probably led to My Tent Or Yours deserving of his chance and Grandouet being switched to a campaign over fences. This is mentioned because to date My Tent Or Yours travels with a power and a thunder that is reminiscent of Sprinter Sacre: it is not a simple keenness but a sheer force of will to run through the race with a level of power that corresponds to a high level of innate talent. It is incredible to watch but not at all efficient. Having disposed of handicappers in the Betfair Hurdle - again tanking through the race - he met is elite level match in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, in large part because he was hacking for a full mile and a half at a faster pace than his jockey wanted to allow. He challenged at the last, stayed and battled, but the far more energy efficient Champagne Fever justifiably kept him at bay, confirming himself a high class dual festival winning horse in his own right.

Generation X: Three closely matched future elite horses but with very different forms of energy distribution. The analytics of physicality decided the race

His Aintree win ended his novice season as emphatically as he would begin anew in open company in the Fighting Fifth. In both cases he was far better than his opponents, so the "tanking" and energy shedding were unimportant. It nearly caught him out yet again in the Christmas Hurdle, however, when although not as dramatically as in the Supreme Novices he was still insistent on speaking to his jockey continually. The key point with this aspect of his physicality is that over fences the natural forward propulsion in his movement will be boosted or favoured going over fence after fence: he will actually save energy and lengths compared to most of his rivals because for him it will be easy but others will have to expend extra energy to deal with the obstacle at pace. Sprinter Sacre doesn't do much racing at the end of his races because (long) before then he has snapped the bridle ratio of his rivals. Over hurdles the whole motion of jumping is far less pronounced so My Tent Or Yours' energy is not being put to use as he tanks because he is gaining little compared to his opponents and they are using their energy better in the latter part of the race. His class alone can beat most, but not all. Not least because his hurdling is not always fluent; he is probably preoccupied with the conversation with his jockey and sometimes the hurdles appear as an inconvenience as opposed to a part of his job. Again, fences remove that problem; big things in the way focus the mind.

My Tent Or Yours' On/Behind bridle ratio over hurdles is therefore quite fixed at elite level. As is obvious by now it heavily favours the former without being at the expense of the latter, as Kempton proved. He has battled hard and true when switching behind the bridle in both the Supreme Novices and the Christmas Hurdle but as those two results show the effects of his earlier stage racing style can swing the result either way depending on any number of unforeseen race variables.

The Christmas Hurdle was an exceptionally strong race. As they approached the final turn, The New One put so much pace into the race that by by the time they turned into the straight proper not only was everything bar My Tent Or Yours beaten there and then, but The New One himself had to switch behind the bridle and race from a long way out. He had gone around the bend without any noticeable effort, it was a devastating injection of galloping class, one that was matched by My Tent Or Yours who, finally settled not long ago, was sent into stalking mode, held together for as long as possible. Away from the second last hurdle The New One was asked for it all, the behind the bridle power that saw him run away with the Neptune Novices hurdle; and My Tent Or Yours was told to race proper in pursuit. He did so with relish. Two top class racehorses had pulled some thirty lengths away from their field and were head down, behind the bridle, pouring it on against each other. My Tent Or Yours clawed back the length of his rival and they took off over the last at the same time. Remarkably, despite crashing his front legs through the hurdle and landing askew, The New One picked up again immediately at racing pace alongside his rival, but the slightest loss of momentum and My Tent Or Yours' slicker jump ceded the advantage to the latter, who fought past his rival, both of them all out. All of this on soft to heavy tiring ground. It was an epic war.

Eyes front: A long, sustained and pulsating duel that will be replayed in March

The analytics were covered by the jockeys after the race. In My Tent Or Yours' case McCoy spoke about not being able to fire his horse at his hurdles, a combination of a tactical early gallop making his horse keen (as usual, in fairness), having a job to hold him together at his hurdles as it was (“I couldn’t let him fly at one because he was doing enough as it was and if he had I wouldn't have held him."), and the testing ground. McCoy continues to play down his horse's merits, as he had done similarly after Newcastle, but his horse is shouting over him and he will again in the Kingwell Hurdle.

Ulysses S. Grant once said: "In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten then he who continues the attack wins". This is the acid test of mentality for THE NEW ONE. At Kempton on deep ground with talented but by comparison moderate opposition bar his main rival, the gallop had been understandably limited which is why his jockey asked The New One to put the pedal down after jumping three out, which is some distance. "Nothing we did suited him. It was just very annoying. I wanted to get My Tent Or Yours under pressure early enough, but I couldn't get him at it" was the view of jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, commenting on a plan devised with his trainer-father, whilst complementing the winner at the same time. On reflection they may question the merit of creating a target so early for a horse that has the physicality to track any gallop of any intensity, but the fear of being a victim of superior acceleration was uppermost in their minds. What was felt in the aftermath is that a stronger gallop from the start would have stretched out the "on" aspect of My Tent Or Yours' bridle ratio sooner leaving his "behind" capacity more diluted, something akin to that which unfolded in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, but the conditions at Kempton made that ploy difficult. At Cheltenham the gallop will be more fierce, more sustained and the belief is that while both he and My Tent Or Yours will be able to cope with that level of elite pace gallop, The New One will possibly have more reserves of energy once they switch behind the bridle, more akin to the finish of the Neptune Novices Hurdle. (Although the gallop in that race was moderate it was over much further and The New One's energy distribution was strongest at the end of the race.)

Having dispatched a lacklustre Rock On Ruby first time out, The International Hurdle at Cheltenham was a revealing race. The New One renewed rivalry with his Aintree Hurdle conqueror from last season, stalked him as that horse led the field into the home straight, passed him effortlessly as that horse was being asked a question from behind him, then possibly idled after jumping the last allowing Zarkandar back upsides, before pulling away with hands and heels when asked, to win easily by six lengths. The New One does run through the top of some of his hurdles in his races, including the last here (as at Kempton, too), but the revealing thing is how little difference it makes to his energy distribution. The Kempton example was extraordinary; here at Cheltenham he idled because he had no company and the race had been quite easy for him. The final action would have unfolded in a more natural way had Zarkandar not been hindered, but as it was that rival lost momentum and had to be gathered up again for a final charge that was short lived once The New One was asked to run away from him. It's possible too that The New One's jump at the last hurdle coincided with his natural process of switching behind the bridle a little - a notable energy shift that is present in most of his races - so the brief appearance of idling may have been nothing other than a transfer of energy phase, a shift in his On/Behind bridle ratio. What is clear is that he has a toughened, elite level mentality. He pointed to that aspect of his character in his Bumper days, finishing sixth to Champagne Fever and then, undaunted by that experience, going on to Aintree and mastering none other than My Tent Or Yours in a close finish. He who continues the attack wins.

In a race where the most effective distribution of energy will be crucial, purely in analytical terms, The New One has the most efficient and even curve. This brings to the fore the question of what kind of elite pace gallop will feature in the race, which cannot be known until much nearer the time. The presence of Un De Sceaux would greatly favour The New One and My Tent Or Yours; his absence would not hinder them necessarily but would offer Hurricane Fly more assistance. A lack of appropriate racing language, not to mention imagination, shines through the words "could be anything". Quite clearly he is anything but anything. A six year old but with only four starts under rules and none of them even remotely competitive events. He is an out-and-out front running galloper that his jockey describes as "wearing his heart on his sleeve" - a reference that usually refers to strong mental qualities that cover a slight lack of class or talent and his trainer was a little more open: "We will have to consider whether pitching him into the Champion Hurdle at this stage of his career would be the wisest thing to do".  What Un De Sceaux would offer is the kind of gallop that would help the pace-stamina and tanking-gallop qualities of The New One and My Tent Or Yours respectively. He would stretch out most of the field's bridle ratios, including Hurricane Fly's, whose class would enable a sustained response mid-race but he would not be able to claw back the kind of duel the younger pair served up at Kempton. Un De Sceaux himself would be a spent force rounding the final bend, if not before, as once approached having raced so fully, there would be no transition to be made behind the bridle at that level, no energy left to transfer. 

Without him, as trainer and jockey hinted would be the case, the emphasis swings back on to THE NEW ONE's jockey to get the tactical fractions right from wherever he is positioned in the race. On that front Sam Twiston-Davies has experienced a number of different scenarios already: The narrow defeat to At Fisher's Cross where he quickened too soon in heavy ground over 21f; the Neptune Novices Hurdle where he gathered his horse together rounding the bend to unleash a long and sustained phase of power behind the bridle; and the two very different tactical races most recently. He could not have more information to work with; his horse has the physical, mental and tactical characteristics to win under almost any conditions. Cheltenham gives him the stage to prove it.

Neptune Novices Hurdle: Preliminary Thoughts

A race that continues to provide for runners with very high potential. Even when just taking the recent past into account: Mikael d'Haguenet rattled off a six-timer in his winning season; Peddlers Cross went down by a length to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle; First Lieutenant came second in the RSA Chase and second in the Ryanair Chase; Simonsig won the Arkle Chase; and The New One is among the favourites for the Champion Hurdle having won the International Hurdle. This is a tough roll-call to get in line for. 

Chief among those in waiting is Faugheen. Reference to Pont Alexandre (favourite but well beaten in this race last year for the same stable) is worth dismissing unless it focuses for comparative purposes on their respective physicality, which is the significant aspect. Pont Alexandre had the build of, and ran akin to that of, a strapping three mile chaser. He powered his frame through deep ground against inferior rivals but he did not do it quickly and the accompanying disparity between racecourse evidence, Festival race suitability and general expectation bordered on the enormous. Faugheen is much better situated. He is quite a narrow horse. His chest and shoulders do not offer a great deal of staying power at this stage; he is built to race quickly when required, but the engine does not necessarily cut out over longer trips. Although he is something of an unknown quantity - because he has simply outclassed all his rivals to date - that is not an excuse to opine that he "could be anything" when quite clearly that is not the case (nor is it ever). We also know more about him on the racecourse than was the case with Pont Alexandre, for example. Faugheen won a 24f Point race (as did Simonsig) before dismantling Josses Hill, who looks very promising himself this season. Including his Point victory, the following in-race comments appear: "qckn clr", "quickened clear", "travelled easily...not extended", "eased into lead next...easily" and from his latest and least impressive performance, "easily". That was over three miles in heavy ground but by again outclassing inferior rivals it was a performance that strongly evidenced why three miles under Festival conditions is not something that would be particularly suitable. His On/Behind bridle ratio is very much tilted in favour of the former.

Speed: Faugheen has a smoothness of movement for specific reasons but hurdling could be more fluent

Only recently, Simonsig and The New One's "jumping" was sometimes brought up as a negative, yet both won this race comfortably, Simonsig going on to win an Arkle Chase despite carrying an infection and The New One going on to win an International Hurdle this season. Hurdling techniques are rarely perfect; they combine with or result from the physicality of the horse and the conditions in which they race on any given day. Faugheen on occasion jumps from the shoulder, so he will run to a hurdle and push his shoulders over first leaving the legs a bit stiff and straight as they go over, rather than those components working together in a more fluid movement. Such aspects of micro-analysis rarely present a problem to elite horses so if Faugheen is a top class novice in waiting his hurdling will not affect his Neptune performance in any significant way. As of yet though we have not seen him switch behind the bridle, and that aspect of his physicality is still largely unknown.

Which is not the case with the identifiably more robust The Tullow Tank. He is unbeaten this season with two Grade One victories to show for his efforts, winning the latest of those by 8L at Leopardstown. In that race he was obviously well on top at the end of the race but the same was also true for his win in the Royal Bond, despite the much narrower winning margin. In terms of physicality what can be seen on the racecourse has also been clearly stated by his trainer: "He was impressive the last day in that the further he went the better he was...He can race on and off the bridle so [jockey] Danny (Mullins) did well because he's not the easiest ride", whilst bearing in mind that stamina in terms of distance has yet to be asked of the horse, having raced exclusively over two miles thus far (he will race over 18f in the Deloitte Hurdle). 

Shoulder Press: The Tullow Tank has size and power on the front end

That physicality is underpinned by the presence of strapping, powerful shoulders. He is a horse of notable size and as such is a much different proposition to Faugheen. He most likely lacks the potential residual class of that horse but a defining aspect of physicality in general is how the underlying engine is used and to that end The Tullow Tank's work in the second half of his races is an admirable strength. In the Royal Bond (Dec 1, goodish ground) he raced prominently in third or fourth; a signpost towards his On/Behind bridle ratio came approaching and rounding the final turn as his reins were being shaken to get closer and once round the bend he began to switch behind the bridle - some way out for a two mile hurdle race. There was no loss of ground and once energised he began his task of wearing down the leader without allowing the rival chasing him much of a look in, powering home in sustained fashion to be well on top at the line. 

In the Future Champion Novices Hurdle (Dec 27, soft) the class of race, the minimum distance and the ground likely conspired to make the early part of the race the most demanding he had faced. His jockey later reported that at one point along the back of the course he thought he was going to struggle - the strong wind was affecting his horse too, he said - but The Tullow Tank persevered and found his level subsequently. As previously these were not smooth race transitions but the horse either had the class, the force of will or both to keep rolling and jumping and, faced with the request to race from behind the bridle, decided not to stop answering until the jockey told him to, demolishing the field by eight lengths. The Deloitte Hurdle will reveal more about him and his suitability for a goodish ground top class race over further at the Festival. It is interesting analytically to compare him with Faugheen though: where does the convergence of styles and energy usage favour two talented horses; one whose work is largely within his own comfort zone owing, in all likelihood, to sheer class of engine against one who will be strongest in the latter part of his race, but can it be said he will be in close enough contention to strike without having expended too much energy beforehand?

Thus as with most novice races at the Festival openness of mind can provide for different possible scenarios. One of those involves The Liquidator. David Pipe has one of the outstanding novices of the season in King's Palace: allowed to run from the outset at distances he would excel at, that horse has done almost everything in smooth phases through his races. With The Liquidator his runs over two miles suggest an alteration to the distance is required. His fourth to Briar Hill in the Cheltenham Bumper suggested many possible things but he didn't travel through the race under the cover of a two miler, lacking tactical gallop pace at crucial points but staying on resolutely. Of course, we aren't to know his level of maturity or stage of physicality at that point and his stroll around Carlisle revealed little.

His next start was interesting, at Cheltenham on good ground in a Supreme Novices titled trial race (17f), but the performance and subsequent intimations from his stable revealed that Festival race to be unlikely. As a race it was a non-event with none of his three opponents proving capable or interested in racing him. It emerged after that they had wanted "to take the sting out of Sea Lord's finish" but that horse was struggling from a long way out, perhaps with a physical problem. The Liquidator therefore set off in front and at a good pace, slightly keen early on but well enough settled with proficient jumping. Interestingly, he was going so (unnecessarily) fast having run downhill to two out that although jumping the hurdle well enough he almost pecked significantly on landing, but did well to maintain his balance and pick up his gallop. Nonetheless, this was not a performance that allowed for an even distribution of energy; nor was it a run of a "speedy" two miler in a stalking-the-pace mode. Approaching and around the final bend his jockey began shaking his reins repeatedly with a slap to the neck each time: asking for more, almost like a test. On straightening to aim at the hill he was given a crack of the whip - all this despite being well clear with the race won - and with the horse appearing to tire from his earlier running, was ridden strongly out towards the line.

Afterwards his trainer admitted that it was "not the ideal way to ride him today" referring to his own choice of tactics with his jockey pointing to winning the Punchestown Champion Bumper as an indication of stamina requirements. Overall, this run was a clear exercise in learning more about the horse's On/Behind bridle ratio and his energy distribution capabilities. When the stamina sapping Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was switched to the sharper, speedier Kempton Park track David Pipe was much less keen to run in the race.

Lean and Keen: The Liquidator's 'barrel' or girth appears slight towards the back end or flank hind

The Liquidator is quite a lean horse with no obvious physical signs as yet of strong staying power. This is most likely why he is being kept to the minimum trip for now (his Dam was a low level staying type) whilst they learn more about his specific in-race capabilities. Competing in a 'proper' race will reveal more about those capabilities for everyone.

January 11: Update following the Tolworth Hurdle: The Liquidator was extremely disappointing, beaten a long way out. As at Cheltenham he seemed to naturally tire a long way out but this time the competition was much stronger and glided past him easily. His energy distribution is a major concern and could be symptomatic of a physical/breathing problem. His lean back-end is also a concern and better ground over a longer trip is likely to be forthcoming. Front-running does not seem to suit him well at all.

January 20:
Royal Boy offers a fairly natural potential conundrum, because it can sometimes be difficult to assess that potential through the mist of powerful connections. Certainly his regular jockey had a similar struggle, as he opted to choose the year younger Josses Hill in the rescheduled Tolworth Hurdle. All of which is compounded by the fact that Royal Boy was not among the original entries for the race, until a reluctance to send him over two and a half miles in deep ground at Warwick led him to Kempton.

Another reason was that he is "not a slow horse" by which his trainer most likely means he has a certain amount of residual class. That is borne out to an extent by his impressive first run (narrowly defeated) over hurdles against Melodic Rendezvous, before finishing third to that horse in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle where an injury curtailed his season. He reappeared from absence over 21f on good ground at Kempton in a novice chase - so soft ground was not essential - where again he moved as if feeling a physical problem. Given that he was then dropped back to hurdles it is likely to have been muscle problems, but no official reason was given after the race, in which he was beaten 44L.

He remained at middle distances four weeks later for a facile win in a moderate maiden hurdle (his first win under Rules) at Ascot over 22f on soft ground. He was impressive in travelling easily on the bridle until shaken up towards the last to stride away. Markedly up in class - back to the Grade One he tried to win last season - and the energy distribution was similar. Prominent the whole way and moving strongly into the lead rounding the final bend he moved smoothly behind the bridle to begin a war with his stablemate, the pair pulling eleven lengths clear of the remaining runners. What was notable was that for a horse better suited to middle distances, Royal Boy was not stretched out by either the ground or the pace of this two mile contest and he showed tenacity to battle back from being marginally nosed out to master his rival before the line.

In terms of physicality there are some similarities with Finian's Rainbow for the same owner and trainer. Royal Boy won his 3m Point, Finian's Rainbow was unfortunate to fall when leading at the last in his. Both had one hurdles start before going up to Grade One company, Finian's Rainbow went to the Challow Hurdle instead (1L third), and was then prepped by winning a moderate race in February before tackling the Neptune Novices Hurdle, which is now the plan for Royal Boy. The difference comes in that Royal Boy will have had an extra season under Rules to mature physically before running in his Cheltenham target race. This could be significant as Finian's Rainbow perhaps lacked physical maturity and strength in both his Neptune and Arkle attempts, before winning a Champion Chase at the age of nine. So a key aspect of assessing Royal Boy's Neptune potential relies on knowledge of the extent to which he has matured and strengthened in his own right but also comparatively to Finian's Rainbow would be interesting too.

As potentially the chief danger to Faugheen, Royal Boy's smooth race transitions and even energy distribution underpins an On/Behind bridle ratio that is seemingly well-suited to his Festival target. It is interesting to compare those aspects of his physicality with the much different ones of The Tullow Tank.

Touchdown: Josses Hill hits the turf first but Royal Boy is still strong behind the bridle

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle: Preliminary Thoughts

A race that was given Grade One status in 2008. The novice version of the staying hurdle division is open to all, as despite Nicky Henderson landing a 1-2 in the race in 2011 Messrs Nicholls and Mullins have yet to claim the race for their stables. With the quality of runner they possess as a group they can strike at any time, but the amount of general attention afforded their runners does nothing to help the performances they produce. Paul Nicholls went close in 2008 (3rd) and 2009 (2nd); Berties Dream and all the big-priced placed horses claimed the podium in 2010; both the main hopes of Nicholls and Mullins were pulled up in 2011; Boston Bob (2nd) had no answers to Brindisi Breeze in 2012; and 2013 went the way of Rebecca Curtis, expectedly so for many. Until anything clearer emerges, this year could be a case of Messrs Henderson and Mullins trying to prevent the trophy from arriving at the Pipe Barn.

Briar Hill's dam was an unraced sister to Boston Bob and, in the same ownership, Briar Hill displays strikingly similar physical characteristics and the concomitant praise of that horse. Where Briar Hill differs from Boston Bob, at this stage, is that he has not been galloped with Hurricane Fly and Quevega. Workmanlike at home, the lack of "hype" saw him ransack the Cheltenham Bumper at 25/1 where as ever "the price" had no physical impact on the horse's performance. Briar Hill's physicality is quite simple to gauge on the basis of his racetrack runs, so any distortion of that physicality is likely to come from inaccurate analysis, "expectation", comments attributed to his trainer and/or comments attributed to his jockey. The following is a selection from wins at Cheltenham, Wexford, Navan and Naas:

Quotes can be used in any number of ways to suit a variety of purposes; here we are only interested in the way in which connections perceive their horse in relation to what can be observed on the track. The word that is misplaced is "speed". None of his hurdle runs display speed. What they may be referring to is the ability to gallop at an elite pace, so that if he can move comfortably with good horses attempting to gallop strongly beyond him then this would indicate tactical pace or, misused, the term "speed". At both Navan and Naas Briar Hill can be clearly seen to switch behind the bridle in extremely small field, moderate gallop races. A horse with "speed" would not need to do this and on better ground this would only be accentuated. At Navan when making all against Azorian his jumping went technically awry as a result most likely of lack of experience: he appeared unsure how to coordinate his effort to race effectively with the timing required to jump. Once he had got rolling more fully, he cleared the last hurdle easily and bounded clear. At Naas he was in second the whole way and chasing a rival with a narrower, more compact physique who was quite quick across his obstacles. There were no problems for Briar Hill; his power behind the bridle was showcased because it took a while to master the horse in front but in the fashion of a good stayer once he had done so that power grew stronger and more effective and he was clear at the line. 

Briar Hill himself is a strong, muscular horse. He has good size but not a worryingly large frame. So far he has displayed a number of important aspects. He looks for the time being to be of a sound constitution, having run well and recovered well from three runs already; his mentality is strong so that despite the impression of "only doing enough" he has the even energy distribution required of a stayer and applies himself well at the end of his races; and he has confirmed the initial signs of residual class displayed in his Cheltenham Bumper win. It has to be held in mind that we are unaware of his training programme and that the curve of his physical progression is being shaped towards March, where he will have to "race" from the outset in a big field at Festival pace on better ground, a constellation of factors he will probably relish. 

Driven: Briar Hill has strong galloping power when switching behind the bridle

He does not have the "speed" for a Neptune Novices Hurdle, but that assumes that there are runners with a certain profile and with enough class in that race to make that observation a problem and is likely one of the many reasons why his actual race target is yet to be defined. Many trainers with live festival candidates face similar decision-making processes. From Briar Hill's race performances over hurdles to date a novice in the vicinity of The New One's calibre would cause him no end of problems but this is a new year and a different renewal. His chances in the Albert Bartlett will depend on the extent to which his more obvious hurdling limitations - he is likely to become a better chaser than hurdler - can be exposed by his opponents. In that respect one obvious candidate leaps into contention.

King's Palace. His only defeat when completing the course (he fell two out in a soft ground Ayr bumper almost a year ago) came against an opponent he may well face again in this race, the one year older Captain Cutter just outstayed him in a heavy ground Ascot bumper. Captain Cutter won the Grade One Challow Hurdle at the end of December although he has yet to race at three miles (which is fine). King's Palace on the other hand has been driving the miles into his legs with three wins this season over 23f, 26f and 24f, all on good ground, the latter being one of the sponsored trials for this event.

King's Palace displays a varied mix of physical attributes. He is taller and more athletic than Briar Hill, for example; not as muscular in the chest but with a strong stamp of a neck. He gallops exuberantly from the front without being keen and avoids using up unnecessary energy. Not unlike Cue Card, for example, he sets his opponents a test and asks them if they have any answers and, bar being a little green and uncharacteristically moderate over the last two hurdles at Fontwell on debut, nothing he has faced subsequently has been able to pull up a chair for that exam. Wide margin wins are often misleading for one reason or another - Our Conor's Triumph Hurdle victory is a prominent example - but in winning twice at Cheltenham by a combined 32L King's Palace performed with a kind of physicality that offers little doubt about his ability to replicate his running power in a Grade One event.

Keep Up: King's Palace's hurdling has been amongst the best of any novice this season

King's Palace's hurdling since his debut win has been outstanding. So far we can say that he rarely breaks stride when jumping despite the high-level gallop he sets himself; his taller, athletic frame seems to help maintain his body position whilst lifting his legs over the hurdle, meaning there is very little loss of momentum at any stage. This technique allied to the level of class he is displaying combine to break his opponents. An interesting aspect of his jumping may link to his bridle ratio, in that what would happen if he made a mistake? Many horses in his division are not travelling as fast or with as much confidence as he does: they may hit or brush through a hurdle but it does not alter their rhythm much as they can quickly pick up their gallop again on the landing side. It may be that a mistake - how serious it would need to be is impossible to say - from King's Palace would hurt the optimal range of his On/Behind bridle ratio. For a horse that races with such power in his own comfort zone, it is questionable how much racing power he would be able to offer when switched behind the bridle. The effectiveness of his weaponry relies on opponents not being able to keep close enough to him in the last quarter of the race, but any mistake(s) would reduce the distance he was in front by and make a challenge from behind the bridle by an opponent a distinct possibility, at which point a clear convergence of available power would favour his pursuer(s). If King's Palace puts in an error-free round he is likely to be extremely difficult to catch in this race, and minor errors are unlikely to alter such a scenario.

Captain Cutter will likely be one of the main pursuers. His win in the Challow Hurdle was impressive perhaps mostly for the fact that he came from last to stay resolutely past the field in heavy ground. However much those conditions clearly suited him well, to do that to opponents in a Grade One contest shows a complimentary mix of racing power. His trainer's assistant summed him up succinctly:

That progression has been energised in a different way to his main rival since beating him in heavy ground on debut in a bumper at Ascot. He has not been asked to run at three miles most likely because only then will he have been trained to deliver his maximum for the season. His races to date show that he grows in strength as his race develops. However, unlike King's Palace, Captain Cutter's hurdling can hinder his rhythm, as it did most notably at Market Rasen over 19f on good to soft ground. He raced more prominently than he would later in the Challow Hurdle, but a mistake at the seventh seemed to set him back a little and his jockey was forced to ensure he outclassed his rivals rather than the horse naturally and easily doing so. Perhaps this was the reason he was allowed to race more in his own time at Newbury on his next start, given that it was a Grade One (albeit in deep ground) and that connections would have been fairly sure he was well up to the required level. As with Briar Hill, the key question for Captain Cutter revolves around whether he has the technical ability to still be in contention should King's Palace deliver the tour de force he is capable of, especially on much better ground than the Challow. Like Briar Hill, the most striking aspect of his physicality is his ability to race powerfully once behind the bridle; but the race may be won by tactical pace rather than force of will.

Let's Roll: Captain Cutter will need to hurdle smoothly for his staying power to become effective

2014 Premiership Prediction Update (halfway)

Pre-Season:

Halfway Point:

This is just for fun. Giving reasons would run to several pages, and answer nothing, nor be particularly useful. Nonetheless, as with racing, there were a number of structural regularities and changes that could be clearly observed prior to the season starting. 

In prediction order:

Manchester City gave everything to win the Premier League for the first time in the modernized competition's era. They then "partied" on the success as one of their main rivals went through a peculiar Indian Summer of strength. In finishing a well-held second and having tumbled unceremoniously out of the Champions League a further £100m or so was requisitioned to a new manager and, just as importantly, a World Cup year season loomed, ensuring maximum player commitment for maximum Brazil attention. Their players once again had no excuse for lack of performance, although some of the away displays have been unnaturally lax. It was obvious they had the best squad of players, so as long as their motivation remains fixed they should win the League. 

Given their extraordinary attacking options and physicality in midfield Chelsea could not be far behind and were it not for some clear issues in the centre forward department they may well have been able to claim the Title (they still could of course). Nonetheless, more so than in previous seasons they seem to be a team of individuals, not as knitted together as they were previously under their idiosyncratic manager. The declining force of John Terry and Frank Lampard is one reason, the lack of a totemic talisman up front is another (save for references to a lack of historical tradition in the Abramovich era). But when a team can spend £30m on a player such as Willian whilst freezing out a player beginning to border on World Class in Juan Mata, then top two is generally guaranteed.

Putting Manchester United in third place was a force of will. It was in many ways a compliment to a squad that had been in decline for at least two seasons, one that had been left unattended by a manger in pursuit of a personal ending. Their previous manager had to retire with a Premier League Title and for that reason he bought one of the best Premier League strikers (when fit) and left the rest of the team to splinter away. Alex Ferguson's and Manchester United's Indian Summer combined as Manchester City eased off the pedal, but what was left for David Moyes bordered on a shambles which he himself did not help in a truly bizarre pre-season transfer market for the club. All previous forms of "influence" and "intimidation" (everyone can put their own versions in there) would clearly slip away and opposing teams now had no excuse but to attack their more illustrious rivals with a belief that they were a fading light. Whether this squad deserves to be in the top five is the more pertinent question at the halfway point. Clearly not as yet, given they lie in seventh.

Liverpool finally fell into the hands of intelligent owners, who made no mistake in employing one of the best young Premier League managers around. Years of mismanagement at boardroom and training ground level, and years of sterile (Benitez, Hodgson) and chaotic, unstructured (Dalglish) patterns of Premier League play were finally consigned to history for the foreseeable future. Now, in the hands of a potentially top class manager, a firm and proper infrastructure is being built, and for the first time this century a clearly articulated, theoretically derived and distinctive attacking pattern of play has been instilled into the players. It is a process, of course, one that takes time. The improvements have been noticeable on every level; but player quality must eventually match the technical patterns they are asked to perform and as such top three or top four would represent an outstanding achievement, one which if successful is poised to launch an even stronger assault in the seasons to come.

Arsenal added Mesut Ozil to their ranks after the prediction was made and his initial impact was manna from heaven for a team with the most distinctive, fluent and structured patterns of play in modernized Premier League history. Nonetheless, Ozil aside, Arsenal are still constrained by a squad that relies heavily on the technical development of existing players and the coaching of raw talent. They were assigned fifth mainly because of this, but their outstanding start to the season should see them secure a top three placing at least, most likely at the expense of Manchester United, which will not be lost on Arsene Wenger or the players. There may be a small trophy niggle, but Arsenal are once again only one or two players away from a cup or a League Title. It really is only money, or the use of it, that prevents them from winning silverware.

Spurs sold a World Class player and brought in seven or eight new ones amid scenes reminiscent of A.S. Bari in 1991, of which David Platt was a part. The fusion of a whole new team almost never ends well, however, and Spurs have a major task on their hands to register any kind of dressing room solidity, team mentality and cohesive patterns of play. Some highly talented players should enable them to discomfort anyone on their day, however.

Everton continue to perform to an extremely high level, without having the squad depth or residual class in numbers to challenge for a top four position in a League this deep. The acquisition of Lukaku on loan is a bonus for a side lacking in attacking talent, but he was released on loan for a reason by Chelsea: he can score goals and has excellent physicality but his overall play and contribution outside the box is at the moment nowhere near ready for a top Premier League club. Martinez is working supremely well with the squad he was left.

Revised Guess:
City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs, Everton.