On Boston Bob and Physicality: Review.

* The original enquiry referred to a specific bet with another person. With the intention now to keep Boston Bob to hurdles the bet has been mutually voided. The discussion of physicality that follows in no way refers to any one individual viewpoint or approach to racing. Quite the opposite, it is based on a general apathy across all racing media and platforms towards the use of important racing language of a certain kind.


The original enquiry asked why, despite seemingly obvious signs of ongoing physical issues, Boston Bob retained a relatively high profile during general pre-season expectations. Instead of a keen focus on the details of the horse's performance and profile following his last-fence fall in the RSA Chase, that outcome was written off as simply "unlucky" and his next, far more worrying run, summarised as an "end of season" effort where again he was assumed to be "getting into the race when falling" when in reality it was fairly clear he was struggling within himself. It took until December the following season for the trainer to confirm that those ongoing issues were in fact "muscle problems" and that they were a problem serious enough to keep the horse away from jumping fences.

This explains, categorically, the unusual shape of his energy distribution in the RSA Chase, an aspect of performance analysis that many reviewers of that race failed to grasp. I concluded that:

"With only two runs in his legs when contesting the RSA, going deep into that race would have been a highly strenuous experience. He again lost his place (conditioning) which then resulted in the need for a rather dramatic sweeping move around the field to surge into the lead (stressful) meaning he was likely to be tiring rapidly when he fell at the last fence. It was not an even, fluid movement through the race; it was staccato, rise and fall, surge and tire. Analytically that can also be deduced from his next start, where the effort of the RSA was revealed in full."

Many reviewers mistook the phase when Boston Bob lost his position in the race and got shuffled back to last place as a (most unusual) positive move by his jockey to give the horse the space to overtake the whole field and win. Without being able to know for sure what kind of physical problems his trainer was continually managing throughout the season, I chose to reference general "conditioning" as the reason for this dropping back to last place. We now know that muscle problems of some kind were impacting on the horse's level of performance. It is testament to how little information is in the general domain regarding racehorses and physicality that even when an explanation has been given we are not much closer to understanding the specific implications of the problem. Presumably - for without a clear frame of reference we are in the dark somewhat - Boston Bob's muscle problems led to a 'tying up' of his physical power, his capacity to race. It could also have been a nutritional imbalance: the ongoing struggle with his conditioning may have been his diet and the effects of that on his muscular strength. All this is essentially the reason Ruby Walsh chose to ride Unioniste instead.

Either way, we can be more certain that in both the RSA and Champion Novice Chase his muscles were unable to cope with the elite novice demands of those races, whereas before in weaker races or trials he 'got away with it' to an extent, but only just in the case of his Moriarty win. The gruelling nature of the RSA Chase is well documented. He appeared to be racing comfortably enough but even the in-running comments of the Racing Post fail to note his brief but significant demotion for no apparent reason to last place. A horse moving well within himself and with the requisite levels of residual class would have no cause to fall away in such a manner. The RUK commentator Richard Hoiles did reference it, however:

"....and Boston Bob's been shuffled right towards the rear in company with Terminal who has always been towards the tail..."

at which point there were seven fences left; he was still last (one horse was detached) with five fences left before moving into sixth place three out. It is at this point that another problem becomes obvious: Boston Bob is hanging to one side. His jockey begins to pull on the right rein indicating his horse is leaning left. When Boston Bob is pulled wide to make his sweeping move around the bend - at a great expense of energy - he does not maintain his position in the centre of the course but almost immediately moves over to the left rail, appearing to lean briefly into the rail at one point. Approaching the last fence the jockey has the reins elevated quite dramatically in his attempt to keep the horse straight but the battle is eventually lost, the horse is tiring, tying up, and falls by failing to lift his front legs sufficiently. What most considered unlucky was a tired fall.

"...at Punchestown he was out the back on the first circuit and detached at the back on the second. No doubt his class and heart - he appears to be a brave horse that tries hard - were behind his slight progress approaching three out but the simple effort to try and get closer whilst still last appeared to tire him and he fell quite heavily. Staying chasers often race prominently with power and rhythm that increases gradually and evenly with intensity: this has not been the stamp of Boston Bob's races owing to his physical problems."

His Punchestown run requires little elaboration. What is startling is that the question of physicality was never really brought to the fore in general terms and, as a result, he was mentioned in a number of places as being the "best outsider" for the Gold Cup. A horse that was a late starter, has had ongoing physical problems for some time and fell as a result of those in his last two races...in a Gold Cup? Conventional "racing speak" does not appear, to me at least, to be comfortable with discussing the myriad and often fascinating aspects of physicality among elite and potentially elite horses. In many ways, it shows a clear lack of invention and willingness to invest time in a structured form of enquiry regarding a compelling feature of National Hunt racing (in particular). Yet in the purely human world of sport, physiology and the monitoring, control and discussion of physical problems is absolutely central not only to the progression of individual and team performances but to levels of understanding of why certain types of performance occur when they do (levels of physical performance in the Premier League following demanding Champions League fixtures with short recovery periods is one such team example; the monitoring of heart rate and other physiological indicators during training sessions is a simplistic example at an individual level).

In racing such discussions are eschewed. There are many obvious and credible reasons for this. Time constraints is one; the omnipresence of the Value Myth is another, whereby top class races are easily reduced to a simplistic form of reasoning that suggests something at a big price has a chance (regardless of whether it does or not); and sensitivity is another, trying to ask trainers to discuss physical issues relating to horses in their care will never be a straightforward task. Nor is it mandatory in any way to have to discuss physicality: winners can be found and previews can be written in any number of ways, but it often feels as if something is missing, as if the story of what is really happening on the track and behind the scenes is a little unknowable, because the use of language to undertake performance analysis is accepted and understood to be traditional: "the form", "come on for the run", "not wound up fully", "better on this track", "got the run of the race" and other somewhat ambiguous terminology often conceals more than it reveals.

This applies not just to racehorse performance analysis but also to actual top class race requirements. The structure, the depth and the sheer physical demands of, for example, a King George VI Chase or an Arkle Chase are such that very few and usually only one or two horses in training can cope with them. Why is that? What is it about these elite races that exacts such a physical toll on so many horses and which select few horses therefore display the right characteristics for those special challenges? What is found when asking such questions is that traditional forms of language that are sufficient for everyday racing lose a lot of their relevance when analysing elite contests and this is one of the reasons why horses with highly questionable characteristics can be seen to maintain extremely prominent positions in betting markets for the kind of Graded races found at the Cheltenham Festival.

His trainer may not have been willing to state publicly that Boston Bob had muscle problems but, if looking carefully enough, the horse was only too willing to do so.

Preview: King George VI Chase 2013

The performance of Cue Card in the Betfair Chase lit the fuse to a wire wrapped around the trapped energy of national hunt racing enthusiasts. What appears a fairly straightforward race to analyse was in its aftermath spun across the realms of social media and expert review to extremes, from a win/race that 'proved little' to a win that opens the door for Cue Card to remain unbeaten forever, achieving misty ratings well in excess of 400 over staying trips. Or something akin to that. 

There were doubts about the official-versus-actual times and distances of the race but these are irrelevant. Of far more interest is what the animals themselves were doing, the how and why, relative to each other. Perhaps the most surprising thing about responses following the race was the near total absence of attempts to connect Cue Card's Ryanair win to his win here, at Haydock. Given that he is characterised by quite a rare commodity - he is an extraordinarily high class front runner - this is even more surprising. In the 2013 Ryanair Chase Review it was noted specifically that:

"His residual class is very high (as suggested by his Arkle Chase run): in this race he was at the front throughout, continually pressed by Champion Court, but that pressing was well within Cue Card's comfort zone. His jockey reported after the race how he was able to continually change the pace to his liking, getting numerous breathers into his mount which no doubt helped him finish his race so strongly. Setting off on the second circuit was an example of this, he was able to move Cue Card forward easily into a clear lead to again stretch the pace, before reducing it later on"

The Betfair Chase was a carbon copy of the Ryanair Chase, only over slightly further. Cue Card ran from the front; was 'pressed' for the lead on the first circuit well within his own comfort zone by horses with exposed limitations (Roi De Mee and Long Run); slowed the pace subtly by being held onto more around each bend, then stretched the pace again in the straights (at Haydock the field spread wide, meaning he wasn't being pressed even though Silviniaco Conti was almost as forward as him at times); and finished his race strongly as a result (as noted some time after by Paul Nicholls, among others). The effect of all this was compounded by the fact that this was not a Festival race where every opponent was hard fit and peaking but a seasonal opener for his three main rivals. Cue Card himself had a race fitness edge (whether he actually needed it or not) having been third on his seasonal debut at Exeter. They will be discussed in turn but Dynaste (second) ran a race of quality with good, even energy distribution and appeared beaten on merit but may have more to offer; Silviniaco Conti easily closed up on Cue Card when the leader was getting breathers but raced as wide as possible throughout each straight (indicative of racing 'safely') and having chased and closed upon Cue Card's final pace injection he tired approaching the last fence; and Bobs Worth was simply 'not ready' for this race in any meaningful way, with his trainer this season most likely only concerned with regaining the Gold Cup in March.

We can see already that a King George, firstly, then a Gold Cup in March, will present much different tests for Cue Card's elite characteristics. It is a peculiar habit to be intent on concentrating on ratings, distances, form and so on but it is him, his physicality, that is most crucial for determining his future performances. Kempton is a prime example because the curious question arises of what happens when they cannot control the pace to get the breathers into him?

The natural early pace down the first straight spreads the runners...

By the time they are ready to exit the first bend they have closed up as a group due to the pace slowing...

After the slower bend the pace is naturalised again and the runners are spaced out. Cue Card has gone clear for the time being.

There is no need to be dogmatic about why Joe Tizzard, who is excellent on him, rides Cue Card for this effect. We don't know the limits of Cue Card's stamina, nor his ability, but we do know he has limits. In both of his recent Grade One wins it may have been that they were a little unsure about his stamina; or that they wanted to use his speed; or that they wanted to unsettle his opponents generally; or that they wanted to inhibit the staying types with stop-start tactics. The simplest answer is that they are concerned only with their own horse, that as a front-runner it makes little sense not to control the race to best effect, and that given his class if they do that with him they pose a big problem to any opponent. This is why the King George is an entirely different test for Cue Card rather than, say, Dynaste. At Kempton there is no let up in the pace. All his opponents will be hard fit and all will appreciate an end-to-end gallop. The corners at Kempton are tighter; Ruby Walsh has described it as going around on roller skates because as soon as horses start to turn they are flung into the straight and carry on the gallop. The term "speedy track" refers to this aspect but it is often used erroneously with a King George, where actual "speed" has no real relevance. The winner has to be able to gallop at an elite pace (elite gallop pace is different to speed, which indicates acceleration) for as long as it takes to break the will of those that cannot do so. At that point, with most runners nearing exhaustion, the winner and challenger battle on behind the bridle, with stamina and force of will. There is no "speed" in a King George. The peculiar constellation of the strength/depth of the race, a prolonged elite gallop and the demands on the horses legs made by the track as a result combine to produce a winner with (the) highest residual class and the right blend of physical characteristics.

Cue Card will likely be prominent (unless there are fears of a pace burn up after the start), as will Al Ferof. Silviniaco Conti will be behind them, and Dynaste behind him (roughly speaking). The four main players together with anything with less residual class choosing to get a look at the cameras from the front will produce a gallop that will then be hard to slow at any stage. Out in front, even on goodish ground, Cue Card will need to gallop harder and for longer than in the Betfair Chase. Unlike Haydock he will have top class close-up company all the time. After that, he will then have to race behind the bridle to race with and fend off the challengers. Whether he is capable of doing so can be left to individual opinion but understanding the very different nature of his task here is the interesting aspect. Not least as whatever his performance level here, he will then be asked to race for even longer under similar conditions in a Gold Cup. This leads us in a way to Cue Card's conundrum. What is the ratio of the amount of energy and class he expends on the bridle (racing comfortably) to that expended when challenged? In Cue Card's profile it can be noted that owing to his sheer level of class he has defeated opponents without being seriously challenged. Correspondingly, perhaps, when beaten he has been a little bit 'swept aside' i.e. he has done his racing but then had no response to the winner. This happened in the International Hurdle and Supreme Novices Hurdle; understandably when beaten by Sprinter Sacre; and also at Exeter first time out, where a huge weight concession made life very difficult. This is therefore Cue Card's biggest test to date: can he produce a finish, quite possibly a war, with a rival or rivals of similar ability (Silviniaco Conti) or potentially similar ability (Al Ferof)?

Many of the aspects of physicality discussed regarding Cue Card apply to Dynaste. There is little doubt, on all known evidence, that Dynaste at this stage carries less residual class than Cue Card. His runs last season were very much on a progressive curve. Despite defeat his Jewson Novices Chase effort had a lot of merit and his training for the race was reportedly interrupted by small physical niggles. He went to Aintree a stronger, more complete horse, and won impressively, but only at a respectable level. His run in the Betfair Chase rewarded the patience and training plan of David Pipe. He has always been an ebullient traveller and part of this has been because he has been racing against inferior rivals quite often. For his Feltham win, for example, the pace was very slow early and when it was increased it was done so by Poungach. There were also two fences omitted. By four out Dynaste was travelling so powerfully still that he had little other option than to jump the fence and bound on, which he did. Third Intention gave chase, as he would later at Cheltenham and Aintree. He was not asked to hide at the Festival, however. Prominent the whole way he was sent to the front fully three out to try and grind away his rivals and stuck to his task admirably. He was the best horse at Aintree but at Haydock it was notable how much of an even race he ran: initially held up but never far away in part due to the field closing up together when Cue Card eased the pace around the turns. He didn't do anything quickly (rapid surge and tire, rise and fall movements often signify a physical problem) but instead stalked his way patiently into the race and into a challenging position two out, from where he could only maintain his gallop pace, unable to affect the leader.

He may have needed the race; he may have been on the outer limits of his stamina at that level of racing; or, put another way, he may just lack some of the residual class of his rivals in this division. Many will point to his Feltham win and wand vague notions of "the track" about but as described above that race is not worthy of meaningful comparison. In the King George, the elite gallop will claw at any minor chinks in Dynaste's stamina and/or class, meaning he will have to race harder, for longer, and then find a great deal more off the bridle than he was able to muster at Haydock. He is a very good horse already but defeat at Kempton (the possibility of defeat is mentioned for each runner under analysis) would leave the Ryanair Chase as perhaps his most viable encounter at the Festival, particularly if there was rain about, although he should now be physically mature enough to handle the drop to a shorter trip tactically under any conditions.

Silviniaco Conti was reported by his trainer to look "a few kilos heavy" before the race and then referred to how hard it had been this season "for some reason" to get horses ready first time out, a sentiment shared by others (including Nicky Henderson). Cue Card, too, had clearly benefited from his opening race. If the counter-view to that proposed here holds true and Cue Card did not dictate the shape of the race from the front then Cue Card is likely more vulnerable than his position in the market suggests. If he stop-started a gallop well within his own comfort zone his levels of class mean he can still pose a threat with a more even, stronger gallop because, as noted, we are yet to learn fully about his stamina. If he ran (as Tom Scudamore suggested) at a gallop that took no prisoners and then stayed on he will find it almost impossible to confirm that form with Silviniaco Conti and probably Dynaste, who were able to get alongside him comfortably without the aid of a run.

In some ways Sil Conti's run was just as impressive given his own level of fitness compared to the year before, where he had a run in demolishing a Charlie Hall field. The intent this time around was very much for Sil Conti to run his own race. He was taken purposefully to the opposite side of the track down each straight, well away from Cue Card. As Cue Card filled up around each bend, Sil Conti was taken diagonally toward him, close up, then taken away to the far side of the course again. This is indicative of a prep run. Having won the race last year, Sil Conti could have been asked to race with Cue Card given that Ruby Walsh rode a similarly tactical style when beating Long Run on him as Cue Card did here under Joe Tizzard. This did not happen. For sure they tried to win with him, no doubt.

Attack: Fehily is aware of a) Tizzard's tactics and/or Cue Card's unproven stamina and b) how well his own horse stays, and (from a few lengths back) launches his horse at Cue Card before three out. Dynaste is never far away.

This move would have been interesting had Silviniaco Conti had race fitness on his side but instead he is just behind Cue Card going over the second last and cannot find any more, staying on for third as Dynaste himself closes up as much as he can to take second. It is only a simple task then to try to imagine the outcome if Cue Card had been pressed or at least 'kept honest' by a top class horse the whole way round, moving faster around sharper bends against race fit elite rivals.

The concern for Sil Conti and probably the reason he was not taken to Kempton for the King George last season is the amount of energy he will be required to use to track the kind of pace that unfolds in a King George and how this impacts upon his ability to then stay on. In many ways this underlines how, similarly to Cue Card, we know quite little about Sil Conti in a top class staying race context. As the above graphic shows, he clearly has elite gallop pace but his trainer views him as a "thorough stayer", citing how at home he would work with Neptune Collonges (Grand National winner) whereas Al Ferof would work with a two miler. The Aintree race following his Gold Cup fall cautiously backs this general view. Again never far from the pace he made a crashing error which set him back but he was subsequently able to grind away resolutely behind the bridle to chisel away at the leading duo. Given his Gold Cup exertions the performance is most notable for the level of mental toughness he displayed and again here he gave his all. At Kempton it will be interesting to see how closely he is asked to chase the initial pace, and how much impact he can then make from behind the bridle under King George conditions. It can be reasonably argued at this early stage that of the King George principals, it is Silviniaco Conti who would be most suited to a Gold Cup war at Cheltenham and he is in a patient position whereby defeat here would likely enhance his claims for that race.

Whereas we cannot be certain about HQ for Al Ferof, but only because the flow of racecourse information was suspended by a minor tendon injury. Looking back from the future retrospectively after the event, he may have been the 'obvious winner' in many ways. He was beaten 8L by Cue Card in the Festival Bumper but reversed that form with eight hurdles to beat Cue Card nearly 7L in the Supreme Novices. Until trying to jump four out too early in the Arkle Chase, Al Ferof had comfortably matched Cue Card's pace on the front end. He won the Paddy Power Gold Cup on soft ground in the manner of a top class horse in waiting (Long Run failed to win the race off 157 before winning his first King George) and Al Ferof, long targeted at the Kempton showpiece by connections, was around 5/1 second favourite when his injury occurred. In the intervening time, the King George has been the sole aim. Stable jockey Daryl Jacob was urged to go to Ascot to ride him in a match race with French Opera. From the front, jumping easily and naturally, he sauntered home by 8L and after a constant flow of support he now occupies roughly the same position in the market as twelve months ago.

We cannot know where the runners will position themselves after the first fence, but it would not be unreasonable to assume that Al Ferof will be prominent; he may even help Cue Card lead the field. If that occurs, a definitive answer will be given as to the limitations, if any, on Cue Card's elite level staying power. Both he and Silviniaco Conti are by resolute stamina influence Dom Alco, but Al Ferof has clearly showcased the greater capability to run at the sharp end of elite level pace gallops. This is why the unforgiving distance of a Gold Cup may serve Silviniaco Conti better than Al Ferof, at this stage of their careers at least. Al Ferof's distribution of energy when racing is probably the most even of all the runners in this field: he has a formidable blend of elite pace and desire to race behind the bridle; his mix of residual class, potential and physicality gives him the characteristics to win this race. Ruby Walsh, without a ride in the race, still has no doubt about his suitability for the contest: "Al Ferof was impressive in the Amlin 1965 Chase and he jumped super. From Swinley Bottom he was always going to win. He looked in control of the race so far from home. It was a really taking performance and I think he had the King George written all over him." In terms of "if defeated", as with the other runners, much hinges on the nature of the defeat (mistake, fall, merit, stage of race etc) but it is notable that Al Ferof's Ryanair price has contracted correspondingly to the approaching time of the King George. This is understandable given his earlier form with Cue Card at shorter trips but it does not account for the trainer and owner having little time for the Ryanair Chase in this context. Old fashioned blue ribbands only need apply for a horse they believe is potentially out of the top drawer. The King George will be the first acid test of that hope.

2014 Arkle Depth Model: Update

Pre-Season:

Mid-December:

Potentially Elite

Champagne Fever

Grandouet
+

Hinterland

[-----------------------]

The Rest

The Henry VIII Chase at Sandown was unusually quite strong. It may have featured the Arkle winner but whether it proves to have done so or not the race revealed a great deal. Hinterland won his second race of the season, again at Sandown, again having mastered Grandouet, again at Sandown. If we deal with the structural depth of the Arkle itself, nothing much has changed. The emergence, so to speak, of Hinterland is more a case of him confirming a level that was expected of him by connections last season, when physical maturity and any unknown elements conspired to hinder his progress. As I have referred to elsewhere, the structure of a division is never fixed or inflexible (unless a super-elite runner is present). The barrier separating the elite or in this case the potentially elite from the swathe of lower cluster runners moves with the contours of the season, the rise and fall of plans, progression, stall, and decline. If we take (theoretically) Hinterland as the premier English-based Arkle contender at this stage it confirms the addition of a third viable candidate to the mix but it leaves unchanged the place of the two that were originally identified. The Championship 2m Novice Chase event is spearheaded by Mullins, Nicholls and Henderson.

Hinterland

Paul Nicholls trained the winner of the Arkle Chase in 1999 (Flagship Uberalles) and 2003 (Azertyuiop). Since then, his training operation has not really targeted the race; on occasion when it has his runners have been a shade or more below the required class. In fact, Hinterland's own progression-stall last season meant that his trainer did not have a runner at all in the race. His record since the brilliant Azertyuiop's win reads: 3F / 5 / 0 / 8F / 39 / 8F / 0 / 5 / 4 / -.

Now Hinterland becomes his main contender. He wasn't right physically in the spring, following lacklustre efforts at Kempton behind Simonsig and, even more worryingly, in a "Jumpers Bumper" at Wolverhampton. The aim this season, according to the trainer, was simply to get him right, back on an even keel and winning novice chases. He has achieved that with aplomb and rightly takes his place among the contenders. There are a number of concerns regarding his Arkle chance however. 

Firstly, he was not that high class over hurdles. Obviously he was nowhere near the top rank of hurdlers in a way in which Sizing Europe, Simonsig and to a lesser extent Sprinter Sacre were. A small residual class niggle arises. He was somewhat thrown into the fray over hurdles, quite highly tried, running in the 3yo Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham on his first start which he won. He then lost by 7L to Baby Mix and was beaten in a handicap hurdle. His 4yo Festival was bypassed and he went to the Grade One Matalan Hurdle at Aintree, where he fell. For reasons unknown here, he then began his first novice chase season in a handicap hurdle which he won impressively. It seems safe to assume that lack of physical maturity and growth then hindered his attempts to progress in that division. Such a 'write-off' is highly unusual for a top novice chaser and it could be that his underlying problems from the previous campaign, whatever they were, could resurface.

Secondly, his training programme this season. Paul Nicholls has clearly done an excellent job in nurturing and training his horse; he would have been rightly keen to see him do well and he has achieved that with two impressive wins in good company. The problem arising from this is one of progression, or rather the difficult task of maintaining something that is clearly working so well so early in the season. Nicholls has hinted at giving Hinterland a break over the winter presumably to be brought back with a preparation run for the Arkle (although the word 'fresh' was actually used). This may indicate that his most recent Sandown run is as good as he perhaps can be; there may not be much improvement to come, and now the trainer has the task of bringing him to the same level once again later in the season, when his opponents will themselves only just be coming to their peaks. His momentum will be suspended. Overall therefore, the profiles of the horse and the trainer do not give the feel of a potential Arkle Chase winner. Not yet at least.

What then of Grandouet? Extrapolating from the Sandown race(s) alone it is difficult to see how his chance fares any better than Hinterland's. This is, however, just the latest example from Arkle seasons of why 'form' is irrelevant. Of much greater importance is the overall profile, the trainer and training programme, and physicality. The first thing to note is that Hinterland (this is not a criticism) is probably Paul Nicholls' only viable candidate, which in turn denotes a lack of emerging talent in this sphere in keeping with the previous few years for the trainer. There is Dodging Bullets also, but he looks much more a Jewson type although he could well be of similar ability (early seasonal comparative). When looking at the Henderson stable, a different picture emerges. As with Sizing Europe, Grandouet's attempts to win a Champion Hurdle have been afflicted by physical problems; but that we are talking of a horse thought capable of winning a Champion Hurdle is significant for determining that all-important criteria: residual class. The scenarios are different: Sizing Europe was running all over his (inferior) field when injuring himself after two out; Grandouet was coming to the race on the back of only one run following an absence, travelling powerfully (as he often did over hurdles) but fell four out. This came after the season when he arguably had a better chance to win it, but he missed the race altogether. Again, the precise ins and outs are not particularly relevant, it is enough to know that he was high class, with a (justifiable) high official rating for those that prefer that kind of detail. Were he not thought capable of a serious assault, he could have been kept for another tilt over hurdles with My Tent Or Yours sent chasing.

Grandouet's recent form figures of F6U2 tell a story of physicality that few are keen to look into. When Captain Chris, in his Arkle winning season, racked up four defeats each time finishing second and beaten ten lengths on his first two starts, few would have thought with any zest that he had a Championship race within him, but within him he had just that, and he beat a future Queen Mother Champion Chaser to boot. This is not assessment by proxy; as will be outlined below, sometimes good horses just clash. The best horse usually wins, but on the day the best horse that is most physically mature will nearly always win. A simple trace reveals that Grandouet was on course for a defining Champion Hurdle assault when an infection cost him his trial race and subsequently his place in the big event. He then endured a number of small niggles leading to his first run back being a full year since his previous one. He had taken a lot of training, without being able to race. He then fell in the big event, when arguably overtrained (he was 'grabbing' at his hurdles), before running flat at Aintree (20f) when Geraghty reported that he would not have won at any trip (although he ran well to the 16f point), and then he was turned out for the summer.

Prior to starting his novice chase campaign then, Grandouet had had just three runs since he missed his first Kingwell Hurdle in February 2012 and only one of those was satisfactory (his excellent reappearance run in the International Hurdle). The rest of his time has been spent on the easy list and in and out of proper training. One thing that will have remained constant in this time, as with Hinterland during his difficulties, is physical maturation since his days as a wiry 4yo. Grandouet is quite a stunning looking, athletic animal, not dissimilar to his Triumph Hurdle conqueror, Zarkandar. In his two runs so far it can be seen that Grandouet has developed more of a chaser's physique and the fact that he has appeared twice confirms that, so far, he is part of a full and ongoing training programme. Notably for Henderson, he assigned Grandouet to a course that places high demands on jumping precision and athleticism as well as stamina, with a tiring run to the line after the last fence. He is clearly intent on teaching Grandouet what a 'proper' race is about, without being concerned with winning every race (although that is usually preferable). For his part the horse has responded with some excellent jumping (as has Hinterland) and settled much more professionally on his second start, perhaps the biggest sign yet that his mentality is developing in accord with his physique. He has come up against a slick, honed rival with greater race experience over fences and responded off the bridle to race with determination behind it. With another three months of development ahead Grandouet has time to learn further still that an even distribution of energy is important to him; if allowed a season of uninterrupted training his body will finally get the chance to deliver on the years of promise that footnote his career to date.

Will that be enough to topple Champagne Fever? The horse that is rightly favourite has already mastered the Cheltenham Festival twice and now seeks an unprecedented third gold medal, this time in a division he has worked so productively towards. He was untroubled on his only start so far this season over 20f and he looks set for a route to the Festival that very good horses take. His next race will tell us more, especially if it is the Racing Post Novices Chase over 17f at Leopardstown, after which will come the Irish Arkle or the Opera Hat Chase then Cheltenham. Meaningful runners from Ireland have gone missing in recent Arkle chases but here they have a horse of considerable potential.

Champagne Fever wasn't flawless himself over hurdles. He was beaten by Jezki in the Royal Bond and then no-showed due to an unknown physical problem in the Slaney (his trainer said he "just wasn't right"). He beat Bright New Dawn - an embryo three mile chaser - in the Deloitte and Mullins got him right (in words reminiscent of Nicholls prior to Al Ferof's Supreme win) for the big day, reversing earlier form with Jezki and given a masterclass front-running ride from his jockey. It is clear that he was helped in his task by the fact that, extraordinarily, My Tent Or Yours was pulling his jockey's arms out for over a mile and a half of the race, so that when the battle to the line ensued he could do nothing to haul back Champagne Fever, who in any case fended him off resolutely with an iron mentality. An interesting sidenote is that Henderson will know pretty much exactly where he stands with Grandouet overall: he could have sent My Tent Or Yours after the elusive Grey much as he (including the owners of course) sent Simonsig over fences no doubt in part because of the power they knew Darlan possessed.

It cannot be forgotten - and discussion of Champagne Fever invariable refers to it - that Champagne Fever won his three mile point race easily and that he has "always been seen as a chaser", impressively schooling over them at some stage following his Bumper season. The defeats suffered by Grandouet and the poor first season of Hinterland have, not unreasonably, led to a kind of gap where in general Champagne Fever is seen as the classiest horse, the best jumper of a fence and by far the likeliest winner. There is some merit in that line of thought - and any mishaps to his two main rivals would certainly add substance therein - but such a line doesn't yet have the evidence to support it. Champagne Fever himself has only had one start against very moderate opposition and the impression emerging is one of his powerhouse trainer knowing just how talented his horse is. This is a pleasing sign for sure but for balance it can be noted that in the Supreme he finished just in front of future Champion Hurdle horses and here if Grandouet progresses through to March he will face a chaser who was good enough to be considered a main player in a Champion Hurdle. It would be hard to imagine in that scenario there being a great deal between the two in terms of 'engine' or 'ability'.

The other fascinating aspect is Champagne Fever's run style. Not unlike Cue Card he runs from the front and is highly responsive to pace change-ups, as showcased in the Supreme Novices. But he will undoubtedly stay further (Roselier features in his breeding, for example) and it is most likely his high levels of residual class that is making him so effective at the minimum trip. As the level of opponent rises, however, it becomes more difficult for him to make those tactical moves hurt his opponents, because their own ability is sufficiently high enough to cope. Until we see more of Champagne Fever it is difficult to say whether that aspect of his running power will play a part; he may be better with a more progressive, lung-bursting gallop.

Beyond these main three at this stage it is difficult to envisage another opponent materialising. Of those mentioned in general dispatches only Felix Yonger stands out in terms of ability but he is more likely to be aimed at the Jewson Novices Chase given he is a stablemate of Champagne Fever. Certainly for now he is more style over substance which, although not his fault, makes him a little tricky to fully assess as yet. Willie Mullins revealed he was surprised by how good he looked over two miles when beating Defy Logic which again points to expectations over a longer trip. It is possible also that Felix Yonger has raced against two horses either with or recovering from breathing problems. Defy Logic races very much on the bridle and from the front but finds little for pressure. Trifolium's breathing issues were well known. He raced unevenly and far too keenly (fast) from the front and no sooner had Felix Yonger closed him down he was passed him and gone. Trifolium had emptied his energy in a way which suggested his problems were not fully behind him and jumped very tiredly and to the left over the last fence and was allowed to trot over towards the line. Ruby Walsh noted how fast Trifolium had gone and how Felix Yonger had been "hanging on" to that pace suggesting clearly enough that more distance will be afforded him in the future.

Review: Hennessy Gold Cup 2013

The 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup showed two primary things: that the structure of a high level handicap can quite easily be made opaque (as is the case with the Paddy Power Gold Cup); and that top trainers often know far more than given 'credit' for, particularly in the first half of the season.

First, the structure:

which gave the residual class marker of:

Band 1 held the key to understanding the outcome, which was not widely predicted, largely because it was indeed tricky to see. As Ruby Walsh said afterwards: "...the betting public can be fickle and were losing faith..." referring to some defeats for Nicky Henderson runners where victories had been assumed straightforward, leaving Triolo D'Alene to be sent off at 20/1. 

Compressed: No elite level runners. Tidal Bay and Bobs Worth could have run here but were not selected to do so, something that gave the biggest clue to the outcome (retrospectively for most no doubt, myself included). Their trainers would provide the first and second here.

Nominal: The weights were evenly represented across each rating level, meaning no structural gap and a tight knit group of runners. 

MHL: Leaving aside Invictus' absence left only Lord Windermere from the proven, higher group. Invictus' rating placed him in the middle ratings group, with the RSA also-rans and proven handicappers, making it the likeliest area for the winner. A Hennessy requires some residual class and lower rated horses in this race rarely have this.

With no elite runners the next important group was the potentially elite i.e. those that could conceivably progress to become an entrant for a Gold Cup. There were two, and one, Invictus, was coming back after a prolonged absence from injury. That left one, Lord Windermere, whose trainer had little experience in prepping a big race runner first time out. (There were many combined positives also.)

Should they falter, the rest were situated together in a handicapper / proven handicapper cluster. Two of those potentially appealed the most: Hadrian's Approach had been third in the RSA Chase and was well weighted with the winner. However, when Barry Geraghty chose not to ride him he was sent back into the lower cluster leaving only Rocky Creek, who finished a close second. So Lord Windermere vs Rocky Creek was a fair summation, though many would not be taken by Lord Windermere's claims first time out. The match-up from the two bands wouldn't have provided the winner but it could help form a perspective that left a lot of scope to hone in on another runner from the lower cluster. A talented handicapper was enough. Ruby Walsh confirmed after the race something that was quite well stated generally beforehand, namely that the race had a (Grand) National handicap feel and level of quality to it but it was still a surprise of sorts to see an actual Grand National aspirant win it: not much was made of Triolo D'Alene before the race, even with Geraghty aboard, despite him having won the prestigious Topham Chase in April (in which he was apparently "flat out" with the gallop).

Henderson and Nicholls

Paul Nicholls always openly declares his hand for the Hennessy. It is no guarantee of quality, as Aiteen ThirtyThree shows, and he has already nominated Just A Par as his runner for 2014. Rocky Creek ran well and probably would have won on softer ground. He was ultimately outdone by an even better long-term training performance, because there can be no doubt that Triolo D'Alene was always Geraghty's chosen ride. Having reported (although whether this was generally known about is unknown) after the Topham Chase win that Triolo D'Alene was flat to the boards most of the way, Henderson would have agreed that a longer trip, again on better ground, would play to the horse's strength. He was given a prep run at Ascot, in which he ran with credit, and brought to Newbury perfectly. It was a piece of training from the top drawer. The 1-2 from last year were given different tasks this season and, in the case of Bobs Worth at least, were not likely to be as forward this time around. Their trainers had other plans, other horses, and brought them with perfection to Newbury, to achieve the 1-2 again. The answer was in the design and the eventual structure of the race, partly in their hands anyway, opened the door. As ever, the price of the winner was irrelevant to his chance.

The other clue to the chances of those identified in Band 1, and therefore why the winner would be located in the general lower cluster, lies in the depth of the talent pool at elite level in the staying division. The number of truly elite runners in any one division at any one time is finite. There can only be so many. With the structural depth of the division already strongly represented it was not altogether likely that any more horses would show themselves capable of joining their ranks. Invictus was running extremely well for a long way until either over-exerting or injuring himself late in the race; Lord Windermere ran with great credit but an elite aspirant would have been comfortable with the gallop and he appeared flat to the boards (much like the winner in the Topham) for most of the way. Swerving around a faller did not help his cause either. Rocky Creek may be tried at elite level next, where the imposing nature of the division will define his task.

Gold Cup 2014 Depth Model: Update

Pre-Season Depth Model:

Update following the Betfair Chase:

Gold Cup

Elite
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
Cue Card

Elite with Exposed Limitations
Sir Des Champs
Long Run
First Lieutenant
--------------------------------------
Potentially Elite
Al Ferof
Dynaste
Lord Windermere/Invictus

A detailed review of the Betfair Chase itself to follow.
Cue Card is moved to occupy elite status for the Gold Cup as well as the Ryanair Chase. His final destination will likely depend in the first instance on his performance in the King George; in the second instance on the smoothness of his preparation for the Festival in the new year.

Dynaste remains 'Potentially Elite' as this was his first run in open company. It was an excellent run but he is now tasked with reproducing the same level on his next start. Al Ferof showed his wellbeing at Ascot and the King George will define his season.

Invictus is placed alongside Lord Windermere now that he has made the five-day declarations for the Hennessy. Both have strong chances in that race, as may have a couple of others.

Two of the three highlighted with "Limitations" have shown why they were poor long-term projects. Long Run has been beaten a total of 62 lengths on his first two starts this season; First Lieutenant has finished third and then a remote fourth, beaten 26L.

Review: How The Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013 Was Won.

* This review is mixed as most of it was written a day or so before the race, at which point the race structure was known. As a handicap contest I am concerned far more with pre-race structural depth and the ease with which the race shape could be predicted, rather than reviewing individual performances. 

Pre-Race Depth Model:

Elite

Finian's Rainbow

Wishfull Thinking

Potentially Elite 

Rajdhani Express

Structural Gap 154-145

Conquisto, Hidden Cyclone, Vino Griego, Battle Group, 

Woolcombe Folly, Tap Night, Kumbeshwar. Omissions at 153, 147, 146, 145.

High Class & Potentially High Class (P)

Champion Court

Carrickboy

Ballynagour (P)

Astracad

John's Spirit (P)

Colour Squadron (P)

Handicap Class

Easter Meteor

Nadiya De La Vega

Gift of Dgab

Attaglance

A general feature of the build-up to this race was the oft-expressed view that this was 'wide open'. This suggests that upwards of half a dozen horses had roughly an equal chance of winning 'on their day' with still further possibilities of winning arising from 'interesting outsiders'. Such a position is in-keeping with a common theme in pre-race prediction/analysis in general, namely the 'philosophy of doubt', which stems in the main from trying to find the winner by assessing the chances of individual horses in isolation, rather than assessing what exactly the race represents and why. This 'wide open' impression was quite strong, fanned by racing and social media. Closer inspection revealed a different picture of the race. One reason is that it is extremely rare to see, for example, a four or five horse war to the line after the last fence in a top class handicap chase (hurdle events are slightly different); two or three is the norm. The other reason lies in the relationship between the horses themselves, in the structure of the race, its depth. This becomes clear by taking the decisive step of moving away from talking about individual horses and instead focusing on their position within a structure - the race - relative to each other, which forces a specific order and pressure upon them. 

PPGC13: Breakdown

The declaration of 2012 Champion Chase and Melling Chase winner Finian's Rainbow gave the race greater depth but overall that depth could still be categorized as 'Compressed'. Wishfull Thinking, inferior to his old rival during that season, had been tailed off in the Old Roan on his reappearance and was beaten 32L from a giddy marker of 164 in this race in 2011. If we acknowledge the record of top-weights since the victory of Cyfor Malta in 2002 to be (2003-13) 504FPP65PP(P), to use this simple denominator, we can see just how unlikely a weight-carrying performance was. Nonetheless the presence of a genuine elite runner with favourable conditions, albeit one out of form and/or with physical problems for nearly all of last season, offered greater clarity surrounding the task of those below him. 

In the crucial area of 'potentially elite' came only Rajdhani Express. Champion Court was often described as 'high class' by previewers of the race, which is correct at a handicap level, but there was a feeling that he was being placed in a more elite bracket owing to his King George run (mainly) and Ryanair attempt. He was convincingly beaten in both those open company runs however and at the age of eight and working best in handicap company that is where he was positioned for analysis.

The Structural Gap observable from an early stage defined the race. The withdrawal of Third Intention actually widened the gap to the range detailed above in the depth model. The horses that featured in this band may well go on to have strong chances in other big races of a different kind or at a different time but here they came together as a group of most unlikely winners. The horse from this band that most people centred on was AP McCoy's mount Tap Night. He had form with the likes of Captain Conan and Rajdhani Express but this was fully factored into a mark of 149 and, more interestingly analytically, aspects of his physicality were unappealing for this race (his jockey later made it explicit that he would have preferred to have ridden at least two others rather than Tap Night, which said it all).

What was notable therefore was the number of horses that could potentially (P) have raced from a higher official rating but which were situated relatively low down the weights scale. This was illustrated, for example, by Colour Squadron having a 15lbs turnaround with Rajdhani Express from their meeting at the Festival. From last year's renewal, Nadiya De La Vega (third) had a 13lbs pull with Walkon (2nd). Any number of factors shape those concessions: physical maturity, the alleviation of physical problems over the summer, different ground conditions and so on but taken together those and other weight lines could be classed as 'Gravity', effectively clawing and tugging at those higher up, dragging them into competition with those lower down (John's Spirit would have had a 15lbs pull with Katenko had that rival been declared; in turn Astracad had a 10lbs pull with John's Spirit from their runs first time out). Both potential Pipe runners, Ballynagour and Salut Flo, were potentially well-handicapped. So in effect, from a vertical list of 20 runners it could be estimated that the structure of the race (i.e. not looking for a winner individualistically) yielded this contest:

vs

vs

The three exposed horses were Astracad, Easter Meteor and Nadiya De La Vega. The other three had the (P), although John's Spirit had already shown his hand with a 10lbs ratings rise for winning first time out. 

Known but undisclosed physical issues at home; evidence of physical issues on the racecourse from the previous season that are taken on trust to have been resolved; the privately held thoughts of connections; widely reported comments by connections; 'social-only' runners; 'momentum-dependent' runners; the extent to which levels of elite residual class remain potent; the extent to which they have been hidden; and so on: none of these are calculable with any real degree of certainty. Yet the structure of the race - a phrase and use of language that is almost never heard across racing and social media - revealed more than enough. This does not mean that the winner was extremely easy to find (my own best outcome was the horse placing second) but understanding what was actually occurring competitively between the horses in the field made the race much easier to decipher than was being generally conveyed.

Unfold

In reading this sometime after the event, it should be clear that the most significant aspect of the race was the presence of a structural gap. They don't occur all the time - that would be odd - but when they do they signify something quite fundamental. The Paddy Power Gold Cup is a top class handicap. Its history is well known. It brings together, year in year out, a band of 'exposed' and somewhat limited entrants and, with them, a number of horses that have a certain degree of residual class and/or the potential to run to a level that has been hidden (intentionally or otherwise) from the handicapper. The horses with the latter profiles are often housed at powerful stables and targeted and trained for a long period at the race. Sometimes the best of them, the winner, ascends into elite competition.

Looking back at the horses said to have denoted a structural gap, Hidden Cyclone (third) ran the best race by some way and emerges with credit. He offered an uneven profile and 152 gave him no wiggle room so there was a lot to like about this effort. Of the others, they finished 8th, 9th, 10th, P, F. The thing to remember is the absence of runners, too, from what would normally be competitive ratings: nothing with a rating of 145, 146 or 147 took part.

Discounting Finian's Rainbow and the three from lower down whose form had become 'exposed', we are left with Rajdhani Express vs Ballynagour / Johns Spirit / Colour Squadron. Ratio: LHM simply means the winner is most likely situated lower; if not there then higher; a winner from the middle would have been surprising. We know now that this contest yielded 5th vs P / Winner / Second. Whatever the betting decisions made from this point, it can be seen that the 'actual' race before us was anything but 'wide open'; it was far more opaque, more visible than that. Nor does anyone need to 'understand' the race to pick the winner: John's Spirit ran in competitive races as a novice, ran at the Festival, won impressively first time out and had a 9lbs pull with Rajdhani Express from March. He was a popular pick for a long time and a deserving winner. Naturally I favoured the other three: Rajdhani had possible improvement to come should the 'lower three' not come up to scratch; Ballynagour was unexposed and physically imposing but had problems with bleeding so fresh seemed sensible; and Colour Squadron was similar to John's Spirit but had yet to show his hand. John's Spirit for his part would be coming from last place, which can be off-putting, but not when storming home in first place. The winner was placed in a multiple instead, which subsequently lost.

The individual reports are not as interesting as working in the knowledge that understanding the race is open and accessible despite what is generally portrayed across racing's prominent outlets and discussion centres. Most of these runners had little chance. The Philosophy of Doubt urges caution when dismissing individual runners, it is sometimes seen as a bit disrespectful, or a bit foolhardy. Yet it is this perspective that leads to a wide range of runners being given 'a chance' and put forward as a winner when in reality that chance is slim to none. Of course, this structural focus is underpinned by analysis of the suitability and limitations of each runner, most of whom were picked apart one way or another. Races have a structure, a certain kind of order, which is just as accessible as basic details such as trainer form, jockey colours and so on. Analytically these pages are concerned more with elite level contests and Graded novice events, but it was interesting to show how a top class handicap unfolded in a way that could be predicted and predicted in a way that is rarely seen or given expression elsewhere. The outcome is always unknown. It sounds strange to say it is irrelevant, but largely it is. The only decisions made are those taken before a race. That is when the greatest wealth of information is known and when mistakes can be avoided. The race will always be run once and there is no repeatability factored into the outcome. What is often found, however, is that the race is analysed or understood via the outcome, by what happened in the race, as if all that went before was somehow meaningless beforehand. This leads to a kind of tautological reasoning where understanding is gained from knowing the winner after the event and working backwards for information, rather than looking for structure and meaningful patterns beforehand. This is essentially why there is so much talk of individual horses, as if they were competing for a prize in isolation, instead of against other horses. It is also why so many 'random' ante-post bets get flushed away.

The Hennessy Gold Cup looks to be taking a more conventional shape and Newbury's big race will be reviewed next, as the elite action fires up culminating in one of the most accessible races of the season, the King George VI Chase.

Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013: A Structural Gap?

The term "structural gap" refers to a high class handicap that features a clutch of unlikely runners/winners banded together in what is normally an optimal winning range.  When it forms, such a gap can usually be identified well in advance. For example, there may be some classy entrants with an OR of 151+ and some potentially well handicapped opponents from strong stables with an OR of 144 or less. But in the 6lb range between those groups comes an array of potential non-runners or rivals with questionable profiles. This is the scenario we can see for this year's opening showcase handicap chase.

The horse with an OR of 151 (11-00) that has the strongest overall profile is Third Intention who can be said to have a reasonable chance should he line up, which is not certain. He is the one above Vino Griego. The horse below Terminal is Salut Flo (OR144, with no horse rated 145) a Cheltenham Festival winner when last seen and officially 7lbs higher for a leading stable associated with this race. Of course, any of those in between would have some kind of chance should they be declared but that chance is not obvious. This is therefore not an attempt to dismiss the chances of any potential runners but to locate them as a group in what is usually a rich band of potential winners for this handicap: six of the last ten winners came from the band in the graphic. Neither is this a loose 'stats' guide; it is to do with the structural impact the gap creates and its inherent significance for trying to understand what will unfold from a list of names:

Vino Griego is 6lbs higher than when second in the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival and would re-oppose the winner here on similar terms but this is a deeper race and he unseated on his reappearance.

Walkon was second to Al Ferof in this race last season from an 8lbs lower mark and there are no secrets after fine seconds in the December Gold Cup and Topham Chase. He also unseated on his debut this season.

Battle Group enjoyed a remarkable end to last season rising 19lbs in winning competitive hurdles and chase events. Like the two above he is rising nine with nothing hidden.

Kid Cassidy has never contested a race further than 17f so is unlikely despite being a horse of tremendous courage; he has risen to 150 in defeat, however, and Woolcombe Folly is fully exposed at the age of ten, whilst Kumbeshwar has generally struggled to make any impact over fences albeit in the face of many unrealistic assignments.

Bless The Wings has run in many handicap chases and was a distant sixth tried over 3m on his reappearance. The Topham winner Triolo D'Alene was 3rd in that same race but the Topham Chase winner is viewed as a possible Grand National candidate, something not associated with this race and he is an unlikely runner; similar remarks apply to Colbert Station, who ran in the Grand National.

Marito would be the most popular in the band having during his novice season nosed out Mount Benbulben, finished a close third to Texas Jack in a Grade 2 Novice Chase and fell two out when trying to cling on to the leading trio in the Jewson Novices Chase. As such we can say it is his profile that requires the most attention in relation to the classy horses above him and the potential improvers he is giving weight to below him.

Ulck Du Lin was beaten 31L on his reappearance having been pulled up and unseated his rider on his final two starts last season; Terminal has been as equally uninspiring recently. 

Individually, cases can be made for each runner but as a group their cumulative appeal is quite low. This is underlined by the two horses handicapped directly below them, both winners of the Festival equivalent of this race, the Byrne Group Plate. 

Strategically therefore, this implies two things: 1) that a horse or horses with an obviously higher level of residual class (here, OR 151+) face less than stern competition from a cluster that would normally provide them a stern test; or 2) that there will be at least one extremely well handicapped horse around the 139-144 band that will make the concession of weight insurmountable for those in the 151+ group (Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander both won this race from 139, as a somewhat extreme example given their levels of residual class). 

Another high class handicap to have had such a structural gap was the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup:

Completing the graphic are Saint Are (145, Fell), Alfie Spinner (140, UR) and Friscot Depot (141, PU). In this race the structural gap was quite striking and mirrored by the race result. A leading high-tier quartet the lowest of which was First Lieutenant on 159. The next highest horse was rated 148, meaning TEN official rating levels were unrepresented. The gap to the potentially elite tier was far too much for the lower cluster animals to negate; even weight concessions of around a stone were not enough.

There are some deeper analytical implications but even in basic terms the concept of a structural gap can help to unravel the shape of a race and in particular the character of the clashes between more proven, quality horses and those deemed progressive or capable of improvement on whatever grounds.