The 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup showed two primary things: that the structure of a high level handicap can quite easily be made opaque (as is the case with the Paddy Power Gold Cup); and that top trainers often know far more than given 'credit' for, particularly in the first half of the season.
First, the structure:
which gave the residual class marker of:
Band 1 held the key to understanding the outcome, which was not widely predicted, largely because it was indeed tricky to see. As Ruby Walsh said afterwards: "...the betting public can be fickle and were losing faith..." referring to some defeats for Nicky Henderson runners where victories had been assumed straightforward, leaving Triolo D'Alene to be sent off at 20/1.
Compressed: No elite level runners. Tidal Bay and Bobs Worth could have run here but were not selected to do so, something that gave the biggest clue to the outcome (retrospectively for most no doubt, myself included). Their trainers would provide the first and second here.
Nominal: The weights were evenly represented across each rating level, meaning no structural gap and a tight knit group of runners.
MHL: Leaving aside Invictus' absence left only Lord Windermere from the proven, higher group. Invictus' rating placed him in the middle ratings group, with the RSA also-rans and proven handicappers, making it the likeliest area for the winner. A Hennessy requires some residual class and lower rated horses in this race rarely have this.
With no elite runners the next important group was the potentially elite i.e. those that could conceivably progress to become an entrant for a Gold Cup. There were two, and one, Invictus, was coming back after a prolonged absence from injury. That left one, Lord Windermere, whose trainer had little experience in prepping a big race runner first time out. (There were many combined positives also.)
Should they falter, the rest were situated together in a handicapper / proven handicapper cluster. Two of those potentially appealed the most: Hadrian's Approach had been third in the RSA Chase and was well weighted with the winner. However, when Barry Geraghty chose not to ride him he was sent back into the lower cluster leaving only Rocky Creek, who finished a close second. So Lord Windermere vs Rocky Creek was a fair summation, though many would not be taken by Lord Windermere's claims first time out. The match-up from the two bands wouldn't have provided the winner but it could help form a perspective that left a lot of scope to hone in on another runner from the lower cluster. A talented handicapper was enough. Ruby Walsh confirmed after the race something that was quite well stated generally beforehand, namely that the race had a (Grand) National handicap feel and level of quality to it but it was still a surprise of sorts to see an actual Grand National aspirant win it: not much was made of Triolo D'Alene before the race, even with Geraghty aboard, despite him having won the prestigious Topham Chase in April (in which he was apparently "flat out" with the gallop).
Henderson and Nicholls
Paul Nicholls always openly declares his hand for the Hennessy. It is no guarantee of quality, as Aiteen ThirtyThree shows, and he has already nominated Just A Par as his runner for 2014. Rocky Creek ran well and probably would have won on softer ground. He was ultimately outdone by an even better long-term training performance, because there can be no doubt that Triolo D'Alene was always Geraghty's chosen ride. Having reported (although whether this was generally known about is unknown) after the Topham Chase win that Triolo D'Alene was flat to the boards most of the way, Henderson would have agreed that a longer trip, again on better ground, would play to the horse's strength. He was given a prep run at Ascot, in which he ran with credit, and brought to Newbury perfectly. It was a piece of training from the top drawer. The 1-2 from last year were given different tasks this season and, in the case of Bobs Worth at least, were not likely to be as forward this time around. Their trainers had other plans, other horses, and brought them with perfection to Newbury, to achieve the 1-2 again. The answer was in the design and the eventual structure of the race, partly in their hands anyway, opened the door. As ever, the price of the winner was irrelevant to his chance.
The other clue to the chances of those identified in Band 1, and therefore why the winner would be located in the general lower cluster, lies in the depth of the talent pool at elite level in the staying division. The number of truly elite runners in any one division at any one time is finite. There can only be so many. With the structural depth of the division already strongly represented it was not altogether likely that any more horses would show themselves capable of joining their ranks. Invictus was running extremely well for a long way until either over-exerting or injuring himself late in the race; Lord Windermere ran with great credit but an elite aspirant would have been comfortable with the gallop and he appeared flat to the boards (much like the winner in the Topham) for most of the way. Swerving around a faller did not help his cause either. Rocky Creek may be tried at elite level next, where the imposing nature of the division will define his task.
With no elite runners the next important group was the potentially elite i.e. those that could conceivably progress to become an entrant for a Gold Cup. There were two, and one, Invictus, was coming back after a prolonged absence from injury. That left one, Lord Windermere, whose trainer had little experience in prepping a big race runner first time out. (There were many combined positives also.)
Should they falter, the rest were situated together in a handicapper / proven handicapper cluster. Two of those potentially appealed the most: Hadrian's Approach had been third in the RSA Chase and was well weighted with the winner. However, when Barry Geraghty chose not to ride him he was sent back into the lower cluster leaving only Rocky Creek, who finished a close second. So Lord Windermere vs Rocky Creek was a fair summation, though many would not be taken by Lord Windermere's claims first time out. The match-up from the two bands wouldn't have provided the winner but it could help form a perspective that left a lot of scope to hone in on another runner from the lower cluster. A talented handicapper was enough. Ruby Walsh confirmed after the race something that was quite well stated generally beforehand, namely that the race had a (Grand) National handicap feel and level of quality to it but it was still a surprise of sorts to see an actual Grand National aspirant win it: not much was made of Triolo D'Alene before the race, even with Geraghty aboard, despite him having won the prestigious Topham Chase in April (in which he was apparently "flat out" with the gallop).
Henderson and Nicholls
Paul Nicholls always openly declares his hand for the Hennessy. It is no guarantee of quality, as Aiteen ThirtyThree shows, and he has already nominated Just A Par as his runner for 2014. Rocky Creek ran well and probably would have won on softer ground. He was ultimately outdone by an even better long-term training performance, because there can be no doubt that Triolo D'Alene was always Geraghty's chosen ride. Having reported (although whether this was generally known about is unknown) after the Topham Chase win that Triolo D'Alene was flat to the boards most of the way, Henderson would have agreed that a longer trip, again on better ground, would play to the horse's strength. He was given a prep run at Ascot, in which he ran with credit, and brought to Newbury perfectly. It was a piece of training from the top drawer. The 1-2 from last year were given different tasks this season and, in the case of Bobs Worth at least, were not likely to be as forward this time around. Their trainers had other plans, other horses, and brought them with perfection to Newbury, to achieve the 1-2 again. The answer was in the design and the eventual structure of the race, partly in their hands anyway, opened the door. As ever, the price of the winner was irrelevant to his chance.
The other clue to the chances of those identified in Band 1, and therefore why the winner would be located in the general lower cluster, lies in the depth of the talent pool at elite level in the staying division. The number of truly elite runners in any one division at any one time is finite. There can only be so many. With the structural depth of the division already strongly represented it was not altogether likely that any more horses would show themselves capable of joining their ranks. Invictus was running extremely well for a long way until either over-exerting or injuring himself late in the race; Lord Windermere ran with great credit but an elite aspirant would have been comfortable with the gallop and he appeared flat to the boards (much like the winner in the Topham) for most of the way. Swerving around a faller did not help his cause either. Rocky Creek may be tried at elite level next, where the imposing nature of the division will define his task.
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