Paddy Power Gold Cup 2013: A Structural Gap?

The term "structural gap" refers to a high class handicap that features a clutch of unlikely runners/winners banded together in what is normally an optimal winning range.  When it forms, such a gap can usually be identified well in advance. For example, there may be some classy entrants with an OR of 151+ and some potentially well handicapped opponents from strong stables with an OR of 144 or less. But in the 6lb range between those groups comes an array of potential non-runners or rivals with questionable profiles. This is the scenario we can see for this year's opening showcase handicap chase.

The horse with an OR of 151 (11-00) that has the strongest overall profile is Third Intention who can be said to have a reasonable chance should he line up, which is not certain. He is the one above Vino Griego. The horse below Terminal is Salut Flo (OR144, with no horse rated 145) a Cheltenham Festival winner when last seen and officially 7lbs higher for a leading stable associated with this race. Of course, any of those in between would have some kind of chance should they be declared but that chance is not obvious. This is therefore not an attempt to dismiss the chances of any potential runners but to locate them as a group in what is usually a rich band of potential winners for this handicap: six of the last ten winners came from the band in the graphic. Neither is this a loose 'stats' guide; it is to do with the structural impact the gap creates and its inherent significance for trying to understand what will unfold from a list of names:

Vino Griego is 6lbs higher than when second in the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival and would re-oppose the winner here on similar terms but this is a deeper race and he unseated on his reappearance.

Walkon was second to Al Ferof in this race last season from an 8lbs lower mark and there are no secrets after fine seconds in the December Gold Cup and Topham Chase. He also unseated on his debut this season.

Battle Group enjoyed a remarkable end to last season rising 19lbs in winning competitive hurdles and chase events. Like the two above he is rising nine with nothing hidden.

Kid Cassidy has never contested a race further than 17f so is unlikely despite being a horse of tremendous courage; he has risen to 150 in defeat, however, and Woolcombe Folly is fully exposed at the age of ten, whilst Kumbeshwar has generally struggled to make any impact over fences albeit in the face of many unrealistic assignments.

Bless The Wings has run in many handicap chases and was a distant sixth tried over 3m on his reappearance. The Topham winner Triolo D'Alene was 3rd in that same race but the Topham Chase winner is viewed as a possible Grand National candidate, something not associated with this race and he is an unlikely runner; similar remarks apply to Colbert Station, who ran in the Grand National.

Marito would be the most popular in the band having during his novice season nosed out Mount Benbulben, finished a close third to Texas Jack in a Grade 2 Novice Chase and fell two out when trying to cling on to the leading trio in the Jewson Novices Chase. As such we can say it is his profile that requires the most attention in relation to the classy horses above him and the potential improvers he is giving weight to below him.

Ulck Du Lin was beaten 31L on his reappearance having been pulled up and unseated his rider on his final two starts last season; Terminal has been as equally uninspiring recently. 

Individually, cases can be made for each runner but as a group their cumulative appeal is quite low. This is underlined by the two horses handicapped directly below them, both winners of the Festival equivalent of this race, the Byrne Group Plate. 

Strategically therefore, this implies two things: 1) that a horse or horses with an obviously higher level of residual class (here, OR 151+) face less than stern competition from a cluster that would normally provide them a stern test; or 2) that there will be at least one extremely well handicapped horse around the 139-144 band that will make the concession of weight insurmountable for those in the 151+ group (Exotic Dancer and Imperial Commander both won this race from 139, as a somewhat extreme example given their levels of residual class). 

Another high class handicap to have had such a structural gap was the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup:

Completing the graphic are Saint Are (145, Fell), Alfie Spinner (140, UR) and Friscot Depot (141, PU). In this race the structural gap was quite striking and mirrored by the race result. A leading high-tier quartet the lowest of which was First Lieutenant on 159. The next highest horse was rated 148, meaning TEN official rating levels were unrepresented. The gap to the potentially elite tier was far too much for the lower cluster animals to negate; even weight concessions of around a stone were not enough.

There are some deeper analytical implications but even in basic terms the concept of a structural gap can help to unravel the shape of a race and in particular the character of the clashes between more proven, quality horses and those deemed progressive or capable of improvement on whatever grounds.