2013 Ryanair Chase: Review

A moderate renewal won impressively by Cue Card, beating First Lieutenant by 9L (21f G/S).

Approaching the day of the race this contest offered a seemingly straightforward analytical task. As always there was a measure of confusion and uncertainty regarding a number of running plans but most importantly there was no such ambiguity regarding the eventual winner who appeared tailor-made for the race this season. Cue Card had hinted at having a very high level of residual class and with everything in his favour he duly displayed it. 

The Ryanair Chase is a fine contest, especially since elevated to Grade One status in 2008. A common, somewhat flimsy view, is often rolled out: that the Ryanair Chase detracts from the Queen Mother Champion Chase and Gold Cup Chase. Such a view is replete with flowing romanticism and yearning. Analytically the Ryanair Chase offers a perfect chance to decipher the best horse to not be contesting the two other races: Our Vic (2nd in King George & 2nd in this race) 4/1; Albertas Run (previously an RSA Chase winner & 2nd in King George) 14/1; Albertas Run (additional) 6/1; Riverside Theatre (2nd in King George & dual Ascot Chase winner) 7/2; Cue Card (2nd to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle Chase) 7/2. Hard to find theoretically? Perhaps Albertas Run's first victory but not the others. The first three could have been forced to run in a Gold Cup where they would have been comprehensively outstayed and Cue Card could have again been beaten by the superstar Sprinter Sacre: instead they came to this race with the perfect attributes to run out Grade One winners in their own right. 

For the purposes of analysis the race is rarely as strong as discussions through the season would indicate. This race was no exception: last year's winner Riverside Theatre had been struggling with his physicality all season, managing only one run when well beaten in the King George; Albertas Run had not managed a run at all and was duly pulled up; Menorah was pulled up after never looking happy and Ghizao lacked residual class. That left Champion Court, For Non Stop and First Lieutenant as main opponents. For Non Stop had run well first time out after which he lost his form.

Champion Court wold return the following month to edge out Menorah in an end of season Grade Two and that is more the level of a horse lacking in residual class. Champion Court is a big animal and at elite level he finds it very hard to cope with faster, more athletic rivals. He is a strong galloper who often tries very hard and these qualities saw him force the King George pace in attritional ground until tiring three form home. It is likely that the physical exertion of this effort stayed with him for some time although he may have been vulnerable in any case in a three runner affair at Kempton next time out. His willingness to try hard and battle were to the fore when he returned to the track in April but in an elite contest he will always struggle to marry basic running power with a sufficiently classy finishing effort. A step back up in trip would play to his galloping strengths more, particularly if targeted at races below the top level.

First Lieutenant was one of the most talked about horses of the season which in a sense was strange owing to the fact that when lining up for this race he had lost eight consecutive races and failed to land a blow in defeat here, his ninth. He got his Grade One win over fences when snapping that losing streak at Aintree, although it cannot go unnoticed that he edged out Menorah just like the more limited Champion Court would and Silviniaco Conti made a significant error but was in any case being given a considerate ride (widest of all) to ensure his confidence was in tact after his fall in the Gold Cup. In fact First Lieutenant has a similar running style to Champion Court but he has a different physique and more residual class than that animal. They both lack the ability to change their running pace effectively. First Lieutenant's class comes via a high level and sustained gallop that rises in intensity only briefly. As he showed when running again with great credit against the Gold Cup second and third at Punchestown, he is able to gallop at elite level over two and a half miles or further but he lacks alternate tools. Once he has run to the front or to the end of his sustainable gallop he finds it difficult to either break through the pain barrier or to engage reserve sources of energy when behind the bridle. Part of it is level of class, part of it is physical structure. His trainer was keen to run him in the Gold Cup but that berth was taken by Sir Des Champs. Over 21f First Lieutenant ran his race but simply had no answer to the quality of the winner. He remains, of course, a talented staying chaser and he has already garnered an enduring popularity but he is destined to forever be involved in tight finishes whenever he is close enough to affect the outcome of a race.

Cue Card never gave his opponents a chance and outclassed them. Rounding the final bend he had three rivals gunning him down but he had yet to be asked a serious question and quickly settled the contest, pulling further away up the hill. Earlier on he had put in the odd moderate jump but what is noticeable about Cue Card is how nothing really fazes him; he just keeps trying his best. And he does that throughout his races: he tries just as hard at the end of his races as he does in the early stages, which explains why he often wins well with his lowest winning distance is a comfortable 3.5L-4L. His residual class is very high (as suggested by his Arkle Chase run): in this race he was at the front throughout, continually pressed by Champion Court, but that pressing was well within Cue Card's comfort zone. His jockey reported after the race how he was able to continually change the pace to his liking, getting numerous breathers into his mount which no doubt helped him finish his race so strongly. Setting off on the second circuit was an example of this, he was able to move Cue Card forward easily into a clear lead to again stretch the pace, before reducing it later on.

The key race next season will again be the King George but this time connections will know a lot more about their horse or at least they will know what they did already with a greater amount of surety. That he has won a Ryanair Chase from the front bodes well for his prospects and good ground will obviously be important to him at Kempton. It will be a different test: there is, usually, little scope for the type of rhythmical pace change-ups he was allowed in the Ryanair. The King George is defined by a brutal, continual elite pace with no let-ups and with Long Run again likely to contest the race he will have to fence accurately to maintain his free-going rhythm effectively. Those questions are for later but either way it is not difficult to envisage Cue Card returning to the Ryanair to defend his crown.

Cue Card wins the Ryanair Chase easily