A moderate renewal won emphatically by The New One, beating Rule The World 4L (21f G/S).
The story of the race analytically was The Hurdler versus The Two Chasers. When the result favours the hurdler in a hurdles race such a story can seem a touch glib but one need only go back to the battle between First Lieutenant and Rock On Ruby to find a scenario where the chaser came out of the contest as the victor. What was different here, however, was the disproportionate 'hype' hoisted onto the broad staying shoulders of Pont Alexandre in the months leading up to the race and, corresponding to that disproportionality, the quiet and effortless confidence loitering behind The New One. Crucially, and in many ways regardless of all that, The New One had positive racecourse evidence behind him.
Rule The World occupied the middle ground somewhat. He had oozed elite class potential in following a well known path towards the festival, one navigated by Venalmar (second) and First Lieutenant (won) from the same stable. His only defeat came by incurring a run at three miles against a talented horse, which hinted at his staying chase pedigree. His hurdling technique was nicely proficient through the season however (apart from the second hurdle here) and in the Neptune he cut a relaxed, untroubled figure, amenable to running in a range of positions through the race: prominent at the start; back to sixth after the slight mistake; asleep in seventh later on; easy forward movement into midfield; and headway to press the lead running downhill towards the bend. In each case he was unflustered and his distribution of energy smooth. What he could do little about was the less than frenetic pace and the presence of a top class rival: he lost some momentum as he switched behind the bridle rounding the bend but from there he displayed the running power to endorse his classy movement through the race. He had no answer to the winner's surge but confirmed himself a top class prospect. He was unfortunately injured during his next race.
Pont Alexandre was beaten nearly nine lengths by the winner, staying on at one pace from some way out; his race was run after the bend. He shared the pace-lead with Ubak for most of an uncomplicated race. It was noticeable that his jockey was asking him to gallop a little throughout the downhill phase, rather than the horse taking his jockey through the descent: over the second last he had gathered his own momentum and was already set to race which saw him move into a clear lead around the bend. It was not a decisive move though; his core energy was speent and he could only keep galloping stoutly with what he had left, fading into third place. His move into the lead showed a certain amount of quality that with more experience and physical maturation may well yield a certain level of reward. Analytically the interesting aspect is again the source of the 'hype' he generated, the lack of dissection of that information and the widespread lack of discussion of his physicality. His price, truly irrelevant, nonetheless served to confirm the illusion. Third place did seem most likely as endorsed here, a trade-off between his promise and the higher appeal and suitability of his main rivals.
The Chosen One. As with Boston Bob from the same stable it is often 'enough' for the most powerful Irish stable to wax lyrical about one (unproven) horse in particular for 'the market' - that abstract creation - to distort itself in ever more complicated ways. Perhaps more simply it can be said that 'popular opinion' exceeds all that is indicated by reality. The physicality of Pont Alexandre suggested the future so when his trainer stated quite clearly that he was a horse for the future the logical conclusion was, all things considered, that three miles and fences would be his optimum: here we had hurdles, 21f and goodish ground, not to mention two horses in opposition of a calibre that he had not been asked to meet hitherto. For the future, not the white hot intensity of the here and now. More crucially than any comments and words, his races had backed up that impression in any case: a long loping stride that showed class but not speed, galloping evenly through heavy ground. As it transpired, there was an elite class novice hurdler stalking him and his more proficient Irish rival.
Unlike his opponents, The New One brought everything to the big occasion. Unwavering trainer belief (for the here and now, not just the future), residual class, bumper form, top level seasonal form, hurdling acceleration, track form, preparation, suitable physicality. This race was part of his training for the Champion Hurdle; afterwards he went down narrowly to Zarkandar in the G1 Aintree Hurdle. Another notable Aintree run had come much earlier, when beating the potentially elite level My Tent Or Yours in the Bumper to advertise his own level of residual class. Over hurdles he began in October winning twice, proving physical well-being following the summer. His debut was over 19f but every race after that was at 21f and he would run at Cheltenham twice prior to his big assignment. As such stamina was assured, as was affinity for the track; what caught the eye was the way he travelled generally and in particular his performance in his trial against one of the best three mile novice hurdlers of recent times, At Fisher's Cross. It was clear just how much potential he had before the race:
"The New One has demonstrated an ability to travel strongly through his races although it should be mentioned that his hurdling is sometimes far from fluent. Whether he actually quickened or not coming down the hill last time out is quite an interesting question. He may have just been running at a higher tempo than his staying rivals who were about to dig into their stamina reserves. What may have happened was a pace differential - The New One still moving strongly at one (fast) pace running downhill at the moment his staying rivals were switching off the bridle to race behind it. If The New One had truly quickened away then he probably would have opened up a winning gap although on better ground he may actually change gears which would perhaps be decisive . The New One's run style could be akin to those horses capable of a long sustained run at a very high tempo rather than a cruise-and-quicken style. For the Neptune, staying right to the line after having the speed to be put into the race turning the bend is a crucial component and so far The New One has demonstrated this. Better ground may prove quite important to The New One. This is not because he cannot cope with soft ground - he clearly can - but because his sustained run to the line once down the hill will be much more assured on goodish ground than, as seen in his run at Cheltenham on heavy, if the ground was tiring making sustaining his gallop to the line more gruelling and punishing. A fascinating runner and a leading contender he can become the top avenger and put right his trial loss on the biggest stage of all."
Analytically, if it had not already become apparent, the fascinating aspect of The New One's win is the similarity he shares with Hurricane Fly regarding his running style and characteristics. It will therefore be interesting to discover next season if The New One has already or develops more acceleration than the historic Irish horse. Either way his suitability for both Cheltenham and a Champion Hurdle are assured. Comparatively, for example, My Tent Or Yours (who will surely have a breathing operation over the summer) travels with unnatural power through his races at the moment, affecting his stamina and finishing effort (as seen in the Supreme Novices Hurdle). In any case The New One's more natural and more even energy distribution is a big positive for his chances in the Champion Hurdle #NH14 #Strategic7.
Rule The World occupied the middle ground somewhat. He had oozed elite class potential in following a well known path towards the festival, one navigated by Venalmar (second) and First Lieutenant (won) from the same stable. His only defeat came by incurring a run at three miles against a talented horse, which hinted at his staying chase pedigree. His hurdling technique was nicely proficient through the season however (apart from the second hurdle here) and in the Neptune he cut a relaxed, untroubled figure, amenable to running in a range of positions through the race: prominent at the start; back to sixth after the slight mistake; asleep in seventh later on; easy forward movement into midfield; and headway to press the lead running downhill towards the bend. In each case he was unflustered and his distribution of energy smooth. What he could do little about was the less than frenetic pace and the presence of a top class rival: he lost some momentum as he switched behind the bridle rounding the bend but from there he displayed the running power to endorse his classy movement through the race. He had no answer to the winner's surge but confirmed himself a top class prospect. He was unfortunately injured during his next race.
Pont Alexandre was beaten nearly nine lengths by the winner, staying on at one pace from some way out; his race was run after the bend. He shared the pace-lead with Ubak for most of an uncomplicated race. It was noticeable that his jockey was asking him to gallop a little throughout the downhill phase, rather than the horse taking his jockey through the descent: over the second last he had gathered his own momentum and was already set to race which saw him move into a clear lead around the bend. It was not a decisive move though; his core energy was speent and he could only keep galloping stoutly with what he had left, fading into third place. His move into the lead showed a certain amount of quality that with more experience and physical maturation may well yield a certain level of reward. Analytically the interesting aspect is again the source of the 'hype' he generated, the lack of dissection of that information and the widespread lack of discussion of his physicality. His price, truly irrelevant, nonetheless served to confirm the illusion. Third place did seem most likely as endorsed here, a trade-off between his promise and the higher appeal and suitability of his main rivals.
The Chosen One. As with Boston Bob from the same stable it is often 'enough' for the most powerful Irish stable to wax lyrical about one (unproven) horse in particular for 'the market' - that abstract creation - to distort itself in ever more complicated ways. Perhaps more simply it can be said that 'popular opinion' exceeds all that is indicated by reality. The physicality of Pont Alexandre suggested the future so when his trainer stated quite clearly that he was a horse for the future the logical conclusion was, all things considered, that three miles and fences would be his optimum: here we had hurdles, 21f and goodish ground, not to mention two horses in opposition of a calibre that he had not been asked to meet hitherto. For the future, not the white hot intensity of the here and now. More crucially than any comments and words, his races had backed up that impression in any case: a long loping stride that showed class but not speed, galloping evenly through heavy ground. As it transpired, there was an elite class novice hurdler stalking him and his more proficient Irish rival.
Unlike his opponents, The New One brought everything to the big occasion. Unwavering trainer belief (for the here and now, not just the future), residual class, bumper form, top level seasonal form, hurdling acceleration, track form, preparation, suitable physicality. This race was part of his training for the Champion Hurdle; afterwards he went down narrowly to Zarkandar in the G1 Aintree Hurdle. Another notable Aintree run had come much earlier, when beating the potentially elite level My Tent Or Yours in the Bumper to advertise his own level of residual class. Over hurdles he began in October winning twice, proving physical well-being following the summer. His debut was over 19f but every race after that was at 21f and he would run at Cheltenham twice prior to his big assignment. As such stamina was assured, as was affinity for the track; what caught the eye was the way he travelled generally and in particular his performance in his trial against one of the best three mile novice hurdlers of recent times, At Fisher's Cross. It was clear just how much potential he had before the race:
"The New One has demonstrated an ability to travel strongly through his races although it should be mentioned that his hurdling is sometimes far from fluent. Whether he actually quickened or not coming down the hill last time out is quite an interesting question. He may have just been running at a higher tempo than his staying rivals who were about to dig into their stamina reserves. What may have happened was a pace differential - The New One still moving strongly at one (fast) pace running downhill at the moment his staying rivals were switching off the bridle to race behind it. If The New One had truly quickened away then he probably would have opened up a winning gap although on better ground he may actually change gears which would perhaps be decisive . The New One's run style could be akin to those horses capable of a long sustained run at a very high tempo rather than a cruise-and-quicken style. For the Neptune, staying right to the line after having the speed to be put into the race turning the bend is a crucial component and so far The New One has demonstrated this. Better ground may prove quite important to The New One. This is not because he cannot cope with soft ground - he clearly can - but because his sustained run to the line once down the hill will be much more assured on goodish ground than, as seen in his run at Cheltenham on heavy, if the ground was tiring making sustaining his gallop to the line more gruelling and punishing. A fascinating runner and a leading contender he can become the top avenger and put right his trial loss on the biggest stage of all."
Analytically, if it had not already become apparent, the fascinating aspect of The New One's win is the similarity he shares with Hurricane Fly regarding his running style and characteristics. It will therefore be interesting to discover next season if The New One has already or develops more acceleration than the historic Irish horse. Either way his suitability for both Cheltenham and a Champion Hurdle are assured. Comparatively, for example, My Tent Or Yours (who will surely have a breathing operation over the summer) travels with unnatural power through his races at the moment, affecting his stamina and finishing effort (as seen in the Supreme Novices Hurdle). In any case The New One's more natural and more even energy distribution is a big positive for his chances in the Champion Hurdle #NH14 #Strategic7.
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| The New One winning the Neptune Novices Hurdle 2013 |
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