The New One
Winner of the Warwick trial for this race and runner-up in the HQ
version on heavy ground in late January, grabbed late to be beaten a
head by At Fishers Cross. Prior to this narrow reversal he had won all
three of his hurdles starts (6L 6th in the Champion Bumper) on soft and
good to soft ground.
Two of his four starts have come away from Cheltenham resulting in
facile successes of 26L and 16L. Of far more interest are both the
simple fact that he has been to Cheltenham twice to race over the
Neptune trip; and then the qualities he displayed in those races. Both
the esteem in which he is held by connections and his gradual curve of
progression add to his overall profile.
The New One's first race at the track was on good to soft ground on his
second start. In contrast to his later visit, this run (beating Village
Vic nearly 3L) foregrounded a measure of grit and stamina, staying on
strongly to assert up the hill with both horses pulling 20L clear of the
third. Village Vic has not gone on to compliment the form at all in two
subsequent runs (latest 6th of 8 in the Tolworth Hurdle).
The New One's second race at the track was on heavy ground. The race was
quite clearly defined for a trial with the third, Coneygree, and the
winner, At Fishers Cross both openly considered Albert Bartlett types
after the race, probably before. Despite being closely grouped on the
long run to the last flight The New One was able to 'quicken' around 3
to 4L ahead of his rivals but the move was either too early or too
tiring in the ground and his lead was eroded just before the line.
The New One has demonstrated an ability to travel strongly through his
races although it should be mentioned that his hurdling is sometimes far
from fluent. Whether he actually quickened or not coming down the hill
last time out is quite an interesting question. He may have just been
running at a higher tempo than his staying rivals who were about to dig
into their stamina reserves. What probably happened was a pace
differential - The New One still moving strongly at one pace running
downhill at the moment his staying rivals were switching off the bridle
to race behind it, with the winner duly kicking in. If The New One had
truly quickened away then he probably would have opened up a winning
gap. The New One's run style may therefore share similarities with Oscar
Whiskey and, perhaps, last year's winner of this race Simonsig: horses
capable of a long sustained run at a very high tempo rather than a
cruise-and-quicken style of say a Grandouet or - where more evidence
might be needed - Puffin Billy. For the Neptune, staying right to the
line after having the speed to be put into the race turning the bend is a
crucial component and so far The New One has demonstrated this.
Better ground may prove quite important to The New One. This is not
because he cannot cope with soft ground - he clearly can - but because
his long sustained run to the line will be much more assured on goodish
ground than, as seen in his run at Cheltenham on heavy, if the ground
was tiring making sustaining his gallop to the line more gruelling and
punishing. A fascinating runner and a leading contender.
Pont Alexandre
Has raced over hurdles twice, winning the G1 Navan Novice Hurdle over
20f by 13L on heavy ground on debut and winning the G2 Synergy Security
Solutions Novice Hurdle by 11L also on heavy ground and in atrocious
weather.
It is clear that Pont Alexandre is thought to be one of his trainer's
best novices. Running in a G1 on debut illustrates this clearly enough
as does registering a combined win margin of 24L in his two starts. The
question is what characteristics in particular has he displayed to date.
Pont Alexandre handles heavy ground and on both starts he has raced from
the front and made all. On his debut he jumped noticeably right over
his hurdles and this aspect of his jumping reappeared on his next start.
This would be a slight worry in a fast-run race on better ground around
Cheltenham but the conditions there will be markedly different (ground,
field-size, pace) so it is not certain whether he will repeat the same
tendency. On the whole his jumping is good and clever although when
asked to race by his jockey, most notably at the last hurdle on his
recent start, he was very novicey indeed.
Given the softness of the ground it may be significant that Pont
Alexandre has been ridden to make all. Many time novices are given
cover, experience of racing amongst horses and so on but here none of
that has been on connections mind which may indicate two things: he is
so highly regarded it is not considered necessary and a clear sight of
hurdles and staying out of the way of inferior horses was more
important; and also 20f may be the minimum of his requirements.
Pont Alexandre is quite difficult to assess. He has jumped right,
relished heavy ground and is a future staying chaser. Yet he has run all
over G1 and G2 races in Ireland with the minimum of fuss. Interestingly
though we know far more about him than we did about Fiveforthree from
the same stable, who debuted as late as February 13 over 2m on soft
ground before winning the Neptune on his second start. Fiveforthree had a
fine turn of foot, however. Mikael D'Haguenet was given four runs prior
to his win in this race and perhaps one more run from Pont Alexandre
would help to assess his true potential. He is clearly a leading
contender with the word soft in the going.
Taquin Du Seuil
Winner of the Sandown December trial for this race and the 2013 Challow
Hurdle, both on heavy ground. He has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles
(all comfortably); on his second start at Ascot he was no match over two
miles for the Supreme Novices candidate My Tent Or Yours but ran to the
line against that rival over a trip shorter than ideal.
Taquin Du Seuil is a highly talented middle distance novice hurdler. He
can be keen in his races and physically he appears to have much more
growing to do. A feature of his last two runs has been his high knee
action and he clearly handles deep ground very well. In his only defeat
to date either the slightly quicker tempo of a two mile race or the
better ground (or both) led to some untidy hurdling but he remained
prominent throughout and wasn't cast aside easily by a high class
opponent.
A (limited) stayer on the flat in France his type of performance at the
festival is probably ground dependent: he has cruised through his recent
contests so doesn't lack speed on soft ground but equally on better
ground he will be put to the test much earlier and may lack the pace to
be effective at the end of a race, particularly if held-up as he has
been over 20f to try to help him settle. Assessing him accurately is
quite tricky but this season may just be a year too early for him on the
evidence to hand thus far.
Rule The World
Winner of the 2013 Slaney Novices Hurdle by 16L on soft to heavy ground.
He has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles this season on soft and heavy
ground. His sole defeat to date came over 3m on his second start.
Perhaps the most impressive aspects of Rule The World's performances
this season have been his even and professional distribution of his
energy and his hurdling. It could be said that his hurdling is among the
most impressive of any of the novices so far, appearing to respect his
obstacles he clears them fluently and on a correct stride. The only time
this deserted him slightly was when narrowly defeated over 3m on his
second start, where three out and two out he perhaps didn't adjust
himself quickly enough. In his races Rule The World settles very well;
he is not keen and doesn't pull which is a very interesting aspect of
his overall profile: he moves through his races evenly and comfortably
and over 20f he has outclassed his rivals with the minimum of effort.
Rule The World is a half-brother to 2008 Neptune Novices Hurdle
runner-up Venalmar. Venalmar had the same kind of campaign (one typical
of the trainer in general): four runs capped off with a win in the
Slaney Novices Hurdle then kept fresh until March where he ran into the
classy Fiveforthree in a thrilling finish. Venalmar's Slaney win had
more substance but even if Champagne Fever hadn't have run poorly Rule
The World gave the impression he would have won in smart fashion and his
overall profile looks set to give him a big chance of going one better
than his half-brother with the prospect of better ground likely to play
to his strengths.
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