2013 Gold Cup: Raceday Thoughts

Initial Thoughts - Race Day

* Assumed ground in advance is g/s
**Assumed race for First Lieutenant is the Ryanair Chase. If running here he would not be considered as capable of winning/placing in the race (for reasons highlighted).

The 2013 Gold Cup is a strong, open renewal with four horses vying for podium positions at the top of the market. Between them those horses have won (in no particular order) an RSA Chase, a Hennessy Gold Cup, two King Georges, a Gold Cup, a Jewson Novices Chase, an Irish Hennessy, a Betfair Chase and two Aon/Denman Chases.

Another measure of this strength in depth is that a dual King George winner and former winner of this race is only fourth favourite. The remarkable career of Long Run, still only eight years of age, stares down yet another tough assignment. He has a quite extraordinary mental strength - never out of the first three in 24 career starts is staggering - allied to a one-pace elite level G1 running power that only Kauto Star could better around Kempton. The King George is Long Run: no breathers, no let-up, no hiding place but a searing examination of will and ability which he has passed even in defeat. At Cheltenham (form: 3313) his Gold Cup win stands out: brilliant on the day it has to be worked into calculations for balance that Kauto Star and Denman were perhaps not at their very peak that day leaving a fair assessment to suggest that he is much better suited to Kempton than Cheltenham. The latter places more demand on a tactical ability to change through the gears along undulations without losing running rhythm. When the contest is weak enough, and some Gold Cups are, none of that matters. The ill-fated Synchronised struggled manfully through much of the race last year but his sheer force of will and his ability would not be denied. The question then becomes can Long Run overcome three talented rivals on a course that may not maximise his powers and regain his crown?

Corresponding to the possible surprise at the place in the market of a former champion is that the horse leading the market is one that will have had only one run in the past twelve months: a most unusual profile for a Gold Cup favourite. Bobs Worth and The Festival are synonymous. He is one of two horses attempting a Festival hattrick in the race. Not as powerfully built as Long run, Bobs Worth has a similar iron will finishing in the first three in all 11 career starts. He is, however, more suited to the demands of Cheltenham and is unbeaten at the track. Although a resolute stayer he possesses tactical pace to such an extent that he beat the future Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby en route to his win over hurdles at the 2011 Festival. Part of this ability is innate class of course but another part is his gradually progressive run style: through his races he attempts to pick up the pace of the leaders from wherever he is positioned and then continually surge and grind in repeated waves, making him an extremely strong and tough rival at the end of his races. This was the calling card of his Hennessy win where he beat Tidal Bay (gave 6lbs) and First Lieutenant (much further than he did in the RSA) carrying 11-6. On the bare narrative his only run this season appears to give Bobs Worth the best chance in the Gold Cup: Tidal Bay would win the G1 Lexus Chase in Ireland on his next start beating none other than First Lieutenant, suggesting Bobs Worth holds more than enough aces for a title challenge in G1 company. Problems with this narrative abound, however. The most glaring problem is that both Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant are both unlikely to even contest the Gold Cup: Tidal Bay is set to run over hurdles before a Grand National bid with First Lieutenant dropping down in trip to contest the Ryanair Chase. With Bobs Worth's only run in open company being a handicap win he has to be judged accordingly. Tidal Bay was giving him 6lbs in the Hennessy at the age of 12 and the third was a palpable non-stayer at Newbury and a horse he had already beaten in the RSA. The Lexus Chase itself doesn't offer much in the way of scaffolding support for the overall form lines either: The third and second, Flemenstar and First Lieutenant, engaged each other in a contest of who can dramatically shorten their stride the quickest on the run to the line giving Tidal Bay his winning chance and allowing Sir Des Champs to close rapidly (relatively) in 4th for a blanket finish. Tidal Bay's effort was as admirable as it was exhilarating but he beat a horse in First Lieutenant who was suffering his eighth straight defeat and is below top class and a now-clear non-stayer in Flemenstar, with Sir Des Champs not at his best and improving to land the Irish Hennessy on his next start. What Bobs Worth has achieved in open company from just one run is therefore open to serious question and for a horse that (his jockey confirms) gives absolutely everything he has in his races it is a concern that his physical preparation has left him short of the conditioning one would like to see for a such a gruelling race at elite level. His mind will be driving him on relentlessly but his body may not cope with a four and a half month race absence. Bobs Worth is high class, resolute and brilliant at Cheltenham but he faces off against rivals with superior form and physical conditioning and as such they appeal more as more likely winners.

High on that list is Sir Des Champs. Unbeaten over hurdles, unbeaten in his novice season over fences and a dual Festival winner in the process he entered the season with an aura of expectancy that was out of kilter with the intentions of his trainer and connections, who from the very outset made it clear that a progressive campaign towards his 'one big day' in March would be his signature. This has indeed transpired although the substance of his campaign is still very much worthy of consideration. A physically strong looking and now powerfully built horse, Sir Des Champs began in lacklustre fashion befitting a 'starting point' seasonal debut. Flemenstar ran out a ready winner with his customary effusiveness but Sir Des Champs wasn't disgraced despite not threatening from some way out. More was expected on his next start in the Lexus Chase and improvement was forthcoming but it was stunted by some uncharacteristically poor jumping. Jumping the last with Tidal Bay his rival finished the better to overhaul the two leaders but Sir Des Champs himself finished with effect to claim fourth, beaten under a length. For the Lexus to make sense as a Gold Cup trial and as part of a progressive campaign Sir Des Champs had to continue his development on his next start in the Irish Hennessy. After all, Tidal Bay would be diverted away from the Gold Cup, as would the second who was well beaten in the Hennessy at Newbury, and the third was a clear non-stayer. At Leopardstown in February he claimed his G1 win in open company, jumping with far more alacrity and staying on with great resolution to reverse placings with Flemenstar who again failed to stay the 3m and never threatened after the last fence but who again looked well within his comfort zone when there was petrol in the tank. Part of the pre-season expectations for Sir Des Champs emerged from his unbeaten novice season culminating in an impressive looking win in the G2 Jewson Novices Chase. He moved through that race like much the best horse and despite getting in a little close to the last two fences asserted his superiority readily up the run in. Strictly speaking however that race fell apart somewhat with the likes of Peddler's Cross (not physically sound and out of form) and Cristal Bonus (not physically sound) his main rivals in the market and the likes of For Non Stop, Michael Flips and Solix a league below. It was left to Champion Court to put up any kind of challenge and despite a brave effort from the front he was outclassed: his subsequent form this season has not been noteworthy. The clearly defined training schedule for Sir Des Champs, backed up by his progressive performances on the track, indicate further improvement to come. As a dual Festival winner on good ground and hailing from a top class stable he is set to turn up for the race as an improving seasonal G1 winner with peak physical conditioning. However for all those positives it can also be said that the extent of his progression in open company resides in reversing form narrowly with a blatant non-stayer and as such he is yet to set the pulse racing with any one performance. High class and a leading player his win chance may only be compromised by the presence of a superstar in the race, or simply a horse with more innate class.

The only horse that aspires to that category is SILVINIACO CONTI. He stands somewhat alone as an island speck in a large, deep sea of Cheltenham specialists and this is perhaps the reason as to why he is the longest price of the three up-and-comers to the Blue Ribband. Yet his sole visit to the track saw him run a screamer. He had already thrashed Captain Chris by 10L in the G2 Persian War and Karabak by 7L in the G2 Ascot Hurdle: at Cheltenham he faced off with Menorah and Cue Card in the G2 International Hurdle, giving both horses 4lbs over 2m1f he finished just half a length behind Cue Card with the pair 4L behind a peak-form Menorah. Now he returns over fences and a trip of 3m2.5f. His novice season was mixed before he got to Aintree: a storming run to take a close 2nd in the Feltham behind Grand Crus with Bobs Worth back in third he then maybe felt those exertions as he watched on (from 10L back) as Bobs Worth closed down Invictus at Ascot. That winter period pointed to his heightened potential within the Nicholls stable and his general level at the top end of novice chasers, something he had already hinted at with a blistering performance in the Rising Stars Chase at Wincanton. Still unfurnished, the decision was made to bypass the Festival - a sign of unusual patience from his trainer - which was handsomely rewarded at Aintree when beating Champion Court 13L in the Mildmay Novices Chase over 3m. Champion Court had just been beaten by Sir Des Champs at the Festival and does not stay 3m but Silviniaco Conti ran all over his field creating a high class visual impression to sign off the season. Since coming back from the summer off he has done nothing but resume a steep upward curve. On debut he outclassed his Charlie Hall rivals to win by 11L before showing excellent mental and physical strength to beat Long Run on deep ground in the Betfair Chase, jumping superbly, with the Gold Cup runner-up The Giant Bolster  7L back in third. That run no doubt confirmed him as a serious Gold Cup prospect, comfortably beating the second and third from March's race. As such, he was given the winter off and returned in the Denman chase in physical condition reportedly akin to a seasonal debut: again on soft ground he travelled powerfully, jumped superbly and stayed on stoutly to beat The Giant Bolster again by 7L this time giving him 4lbs. With further physical improvement and natural maturity following recovery from his preparation, Silviniaco Conti will line up in March with a thick stack of credentials: he has the best G1 form this season; he has beaten the Gold Cup second  twice, easily; he has beaten the former Gold Cup winner and dual King George winner; he handles any ground; he is by Dom Alco and bred to stay well; his jumping is in the main flawless (natural, economical, accurate); he possesses the best tactical speed in the race; he is the only horse to leave a striking visual impression and record wide margin wins in Graded company. He is also the horse most likely to tread the standard, high class Gold Cup route next season: Betfair Chase, King George (maybe), Denman Chase, Gold Cup. Potentially, he is the superstar in the field: the island speck in the vast sea may just be the most threatening.

Selections: SILVINIACO CONTI e/w & Sir Des Champs e/w.