2013 Champion Hurdle - Race Day Thoughts

Initial Thoughts - Race Day

* Assumed ground is g/s.

A race shorn of a potential star attraction. Darlan's physical progression over the summer ignited his high levels of residual class at Kempton and he was in the process of confirming rough estimates of stardom when coming down at Doncaster. In theory his second in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle should now be helping to confirm the prospects of Cinders And Ashes who beat him twelve months ago but the progression in one has not been replicated in the other. It is true that Cinders And Ashes would prefer to bounce off a solid surface but even so he has looked laboured and slightly forlorn during both his 12L defeats this season. He is capable of better and if the ground did dry out sufficiently to put a twinkle in his eye he would regain some place claims; he did win the Supreme quite easily last March.

Binocular probably did have the world at his feet very early in his career but the world just kept rolling away slightly making it hard work to keep it under control. From potential superstar to frustration to enigma he is simply just a very good Grade One two mile hurdler and his Cheltenham record reflects this: second in a Supreme, third in a Champion Hurdle, winner of the 2010 Champion Hurdle, fourth in a Champion Hurdle. His G1 winning talents surfaced as recently as the Christmas Hurdle in 2011 where he battled hard in a ding dong affair with Rock On Ruby only for the defeated horse to progress emphatically beyond his elder where it mattered most three months later. Binocular's opening gambit this season saw him do battle with Thousand Stars behind Hurricane Fly in Ireland and he will no doubt be primed for what could be his last festival appearance. At the age of nine, however, the legs are unlikely to carry him any further into the race than they did last season.

With younger, stronger legs and a seemingly resolute mental strength, Zarkandar heads many a shortlist for the big prize. It is easy to see why with seven wins from nine starts over hurdles on a variety of going. His two defeats have both come in Grade One company. Most will put that down to the reports that last season he was not physically prepared for a campaign at the highest level. A Triumph Hurdle winner and still only a 5yo, he didn't reappear until February where he won the Betfair Hurdle so there is probably some substance to those reports - he apparently had a "tiny fracture" in his hind leg at one stage. He was physically sound enough to win the most competitive handicap of the season and to continue his work with a fifth in the Champion Hurdle and a Fall at Aintree. As with Hurricane Fly that season he was probably able to run and give his all but his overall strength and physical readiness may have been shy of ideal. With a much better summer of growth, Zarkandar came out of the blocks early and has won all three races this season. This would indicate a steeply progressive and/or impressive profile but the performances haven't quite set the pulse racing. Although giving away lumps of weight he travelled all over Prospect Wells (regressive this season) but only beat him a neck. He showed tenacity, running power and stamina in the International on deep ground but despite winning by 2L it was Grandouet, after a year off, that came out of the race the better horse. In the Kingwell he outclassed Khyber Kim but back in third Balder Succes was roughly the same distance away again as he had been three months earlier. The question really is how will Zarkandar make up the 7L he was beaten by Rock On Ruby last March. He possesses high class running power, has a superb wins to runs ratio/mentality and is strong at the end of his races but all that is matched by Rock On Ruby who has that 7L verdict over him. On heavy ground in December Rock On Ruby got Zarkandar off the bridle as they matched strides together and both rival jockeys (Geraghty and Walsh) commented how big and relatively unfit Rock On Ruby looked for his debut. The deep concern remains with Zarkandar that on the quicker 2m course and on better ground he will be found wanting for galloping speed and tactical pace: lest we forget Rock On Ruby burned away from a horse of Overturn's running power rounding the bend last year when it was happening all too quick for Zarkandar. Deep ground and a strong pace war would appear to be necessary for Zarkandar's win/place prospects and neither look likely.

The trainer of Hurricane Fly was never really happy with his charge last season either. Although describing his win prior to the Festival as perhaps his best ever it later emerged that Hurricane Fly did not come back in good condition from his job as non-stop winning machine of the 2010/11 season. For his trainer, the Irish star struggled to retain his strength during training, was never really happy with his work and could not progress him to a racing condition until January that year so perhaps it was a trainer's relief rather than the horse's run that Willie Mullins was referring to. As with Zarkandar he no doubt ran his race in Ireland despite not being one hundred percent but the rigours of the previous season had taken their toll and he was unable to progress through the season, finishing two places and one length in front of Zarkandar but two places and five and half lengths behind the winner before winning unimpressively in Punchestown. Prior to his win in 2011 Hurricane Fly had beaten the same horse, Solwhit, on all four of his prior starts and his win, although thrilling, came against a stayer who has subsequently regressed and two other stayers who ran in the World Hurdle the following year. At the age of nine Hurricane Fly is not improving so to become the first horse since Comedy Of Errors in 1975 to regain his crown something has to have changed. It is true to say that this season he appears to be at championship level in terms of race fitness, training and preparation but he still runs as he ever did and more so than before it may be that soft ground is crucial to his chances. Hurricane Fly always runs with much the same style: a steadily progressive running pace that is maintained deep into the race at a level that most other horses cannot match. With advancing years and the scars of previous campaigns that supremely high class galloping speed is unlikely to be enough against anything in the race with 2m elite level pace, something he did not face in 2011. Soft ground would significantly improve his chances because he has always sluiced through deep ground effortlessly whereas many two milers struggle on that surface and the raw pace of any younger, speedier rivals would be blunted. The question then arises of which horses in the field possess that raw two mile speed and class that would allow them to gallop comfortably at that level and pressure him to weaken off or behind the bridle. There are two candidates.

Not least of which is the current Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby. From last year's race alone it was evident just how superior Rock On Ruby was at every stage of the race. He ran comfortably with the early pace being set by Overturn and Celestial Halo, travelled powerfully to maintain his advantage over his market rivals, quickened better than anything off the bend and stayed on strongly to break the line for an emphatic win. With the fifth, fourth and third re-opposing he only needs to reproduce that performance to have a huge chance of retaining his crown. His record at 2m on good or good to soft ground is exceptional and he is a proven Cheltenham specialist. Even over 21f in his novice season he recorded some high class efforts, notably when second to Bobs Worth and when so narrowly denied in the Neptune by First Lieutenant. Prior to winning the Champion Hurdle last season he raced twice, winning a handicap impressively giving away lumps of weight and fighting a searing battle with Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle losing out only narrowly before being given a break and running at the Festival fresh. This season he has been earmarked for a two-run campaign but with emphasis on March only: his trainer knows what he can do so the task is to get him to the track in peak physical condition. His first run was delayed due to the deluge of rain and flooded tracks but they could not wait forever and he reappeared on heavy ground against two heavyweight rivals. Zarkandar had displayed his well-being already and Grandouet had won the race the previous year. Rock On Ruby moved well through the race and straightening off the hill he was travelling better than his race-fit rival. They enjoined each other in battle (shades of going toe to toe with Binocular last season) before Zarkandar asserted over the last as Rock On Ruby blew up, leaving Grandouet (himself absent for a year) to press the winner up the hill. A pleasing reappearance was then cemented in unfortunate circumstances at Doncaster on his second start. In that race Countrywide Flame - bouncing back from a below par effort in the Christmas Hurdle having won the Fighting Fifth comfortably - set off in front of his three rivals. Rock On Ruby tracked him closely enough, joined him three out and started to out-gallop his rival on the run to the last under the urgings of his jockey but was given a crack of the whip also. He jumped the last in front and stayed on to keep Countrywide Flame 3L adrift. Darlan's shuddering fall betrayed the fact that he was cantering in behind approaching the last and would certainly have eye-balled Rock On Ruby but it is open to question how much further ahead of the Champion Hurdler he would have moved. It was another pleasing run from Rock On Ruby despite the sad end to that day. It suggests that the reigning Champion Hurdler will be at or extremely close to his peak on the day and it will therefore take a fast two mile performance to beat him.

The horse most capable of producing explosive speed approaching the last hurdle is the horse that may have galloped with Darlan at home. Having missed the race last year through injury, GRANDOUET becomes the star attraction. What gave the impression of a potential star performance came, in part, in the International Hurdle of 2011 on good to soft ground where he cantered all over the eventual Champion Hurdle second before putting the race to bed decisively after the last. If nothing else, it proved that he "gets up the hill" really well. His run in this season's International Hurdle may have been an even better performance. In 2011 he was in the form of his life (despite falling two out when running all over Celestial Halo) and so his performance was part of a naturally progressive build-up. In contrast, his 2012 run came after over a year off the racecourse, on tiring, heavy ground, conceding 4lbs to a race-fit and primed rival in Zarkandar and with a Champion Hurdler in the field albeit Rock On Ruby was having a gentle opener. What caught the attention most was not the relatively stylish (given the circumstances) way he moved into contention - he is usually visually stunning to watch - but the way in which, as Zarkandar piled on the stamina up the hill, Grandouet actually left Rock On Ruby behind and started to make ground on the climb to the winning line to emerge from the race as the best horse at the weights. On better ground and on a different course to the International that is around half a furlong shorter, favouring speed, on known form, visual impression and potential he is all but guaranteed to be running all over the field approaching the last, after which his training and preparation will be tested to the full. Grandouet's tactical pace is unique to this race: he is the ultimate stalker and nearly every in-running comment from his races says "tracked leader(s)"; it is different to being held up and coming with a sustained but longer gallop so some of his rivals will be all out to track him and the leaders will be looking around for him deep into the race. Grandouet has the potential to ignite his residual class in the biggest race of all. Now is his time.

Selections: GRANDOUET e/w & Rock On Ruby e/w.