Jezki is trained by the same stable that produced 13/2 shot Steps
To Freedom for the same festival race off the back of a four-month
break from racing. Jezki is 2 from 3 in bumpers and 4 from 4 over
hurdles, including two wins at G1 level in Ireland, the Royal Bond and
the Future Novices Hurdle. In the Royal Bond he beat the Festival Bumper
winner Champagne Fever in a close finish, asserting late on but was
perhaps most impressive visually when beating Waaheb last time out by
6L, travelling well and surging clear after the last to score
decisively.
The win over Champagne Fever is significant because Jezki finished 12L
8th to that rival in the Festival Bumper at Cheltenham in March but over
hurdles was clearly able to turn that form around. He has therefore
clearly improved for the switch to jumping hurdles. In terms of form
this is quite strong form but it is worth noting that the horse that
finished 1.5L second to Champagne Fever in the Festival Bumper, New
Year's Eve, was dispatched easily by 7L by The Henderson trained River
Maigue although it was NYE's debut over hurdles.
The form of his win last time out also appears solid with the well
regarded Waaheb running well in second and the third having recorded a
victory over the exciting Ned Buntline. Jezki clearly handles soft
ground well and has raced exclusively this season on this surface, 4
times over hurdles and once first time out for his flat race warm up. He
raced on goodish ground for his 2 bumper wins but was well beaten on
good ground in the Festival Bumper. In that race Champagne Fever set a
strong gallop and maintained it. Jezki travelled ok and moved from
around 12th to around 6th but got taken off the bridle before the bend
and could never make significant progress after before fading from the
2nd rank into 8th.
It seems to me that the stable were not sure about the ability of their
horse. They got him ready very early for this season (October 10) and
with the horse responding well to racing they have 'made hay' as it were
winning four on the bounce. As mentioned earlier however, it has to be a
major concern that the stable were even thinking of resting the horse
completely until March after the performance of Steps To Freedom (14th
SP 13/2) in last year's Supreme Novices. Equally, the Supreme is most
often a race that requires a recent run to confirm well-being but more
so it is a race where a lot of the time the winner is kept either under
wraps for the season or on a constant low-boil even if winning, with 2-4
season runs the norm. Jezki has had 4 runs already all on soft ground
and we are still to see the New Year. A fifth run has been mentioned
also and at this stage it would make sense to wait and see how Jezki
performs in his next race before considering him a major player for the
Supreme, as if he fails to make the track before March he will make
almost no appeal at all. His potential rivals are all biding their time
and keeping their hands much closer to their chests.
Dodging Bullets
Fourth in the 2012 Triumph Hurdle and third in the 2012 Christmas Hurdle
(heavy). He has won 2 of his 6 starts over hurdles but neither of those
came in his first season over hurdles where he was beaten three times.
He has since won twice on good to soft ground. He is a flat bred that
lost his first seven flat starts, winning his final two.
Dodging Bullets carries an unusual profile in that he ran in the Triumph
Hurdle in his first novice season, which ended without a victory. He
now tries this race. Whilst Dodging Bullets has clear ability what is
less clear is how curved his progression is, if at all. Still, he has
proven himself over track, trip and likely ground when winning the G2
Sharp Novices Hurdle in November (although caution is required as the
last six winners of that race finished 090040 - Steps To Freedom the
last representative finishing 14th in 2012).
On his final flat start Dodging Bullets gave Hisaabaat 7lbs and beat him
half a length by outstaying him over 10f. Over hurdles seven months
later Hisaabaat (2nd) beat Dodging Bullets (4th) 4L off levels in the
Triumph, outstaying him. Hisaabaat most likely lacks the residual class
of Dodging Bullets and in this respect we can accord the latter a
tangible amount of progression - he came out bouncing to win two and
finish third in a recognised Champion Hurdle trial (whereas Hisaabaat
went backwards). In the latter of his two wins (the first was a
formality) he beat River Maigue 1.5L again "staying on gamely" and
giving that rival 7lbs. That was, however, River Maigue's debut over
hurdles and that rival has since showed handsome progression on his next
start.
Nonetheless, Dodging Bullets does present something of a riddle. He has
beaten the (at time of writing) Supreme second favourite giving him
7lbs; he has finished 4th in a Triumph hurdle; he has finished third in a
G1 Christmas Hurdle on unsuitable ground; he is officially rated 156;
he is housed in one of the powerhouse stables and is their number one
contender for the race. Why, then, is he not favourite nor even close to
it?
It is perhaps fair to assess Dodging Bullets so far as a horse that has
had numerous chances to showcase elite level novice ability but having
failed to do so he becomes to look anchored and a touch exposed in a
race where form in the book matters little, sometimes not at all. The
answer to the riddle may be that Dodging Bullets is extremely game,
honest and durable - he tries like mad - with the ability to finish in
the first five. He lacks a turn of foot but can use his mental strength
to stay on with effect in his races and he will likely require a strong
pace throughout (not always guaranteed) to show his best. He will need
to run once more in preparation for the race.
My Tent Or Yours
Runner-up to The New One in the 2012 G2 Aintree Bumper. He has won 2 of
his 3 starts over hurdles on good to soft and soft ground. In three
bumper and three hurdles starts he is yet to finish outside the top two
places.
My Tent Or Yours' first run over hurdles was notable in that he beat the
future (and easy) G1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin Du Seuil by nearly 2L
in receipt of 5lbs. On his next start he was beaten by stablemate
Chatterbox on heavy ground that his jockey reported he failed to handle.
His third race was so deeply impressive that he was propelled to the
front of the betting for the prestigious Betfair Hurdle, a path trodden
by the similarly owned horses Get Me Out Of Here (Won Betfair, second in
Supreme) and Darlan (Fell Betfair, second in Supreme). He is as yet not
a certain starter.
What stamps My Tent Or Yours as potentially one of the most exciting
novice hurdlers of the season is the sheer power with which he moves
through his races, in part reminiscent of Sprinter Sacre over both
hurdles and fences. As that reference indicates, however, this could
also be a key weakness when assessing his chance in a Supreme Novices
Hurdle (Sprinter Sacre finished third in a high class renewal). By not
using his energy reserves efficiently he may 'tank' (jockey's
descriptions of his keenness) to the front but be unable to sustain a
run to the line at the required speed. Against that, he does not throw
his head around or 'refuse' to settle which is the biggest concern in a
talented horse (much like Sanctuaire over hurdles). The power displayed
in his races suggests possible progression to G1 elite level races in
open company in the future but the question is can he run an even enough
race to ensure his movement through the gears bears fruit in a Supreme.
In this respect his next race is possibly crucial. Running in a fiercely
competitive large field handicap hurdle as a novice can have both
positive and negative consequences: In the Betfair Darlan fell in 2012
which appeared to slightly affect his Supreme run/ride in which he was
second; Get Me Out Of Here won his Betfair and that success may have
helped him mentally and physically run a top notch race to be just
touched off in the Supreme. It is worth recalling very recently that
extremely quiet, unambitious preparations have arrowed the bullseye: i)
having fallen on debut and been beaten in the Challow, Al Ferof took in
two very weak races for facile wins before taking down the Supreme; and
ii) Cinders And Ashes' last two runs were in uncompetitive three runner
affairs on heavy ground before he notched festival glory.
What will perhaps matter most with My Tent Or Yours is the extent of his
mental progression and preparation and whether or not his next run
benefits this or not, as well as handling the occasion of the day and
race itself. To that extent his next appearance will be interesting to
monitor for what has been widely reported as the stable's choice of best
novice hurdler in their yard.
River Maigue
Has won one of two starts over hurdles, on heavy ground. He was second
to Dodging Bullets (gave 7lbs) after pulling/being keen and staying on
in second having been outpaced by the winner at a key stage on debut
over hurdles. His win came at Kempton beating the younger New Year's Eve
(debut) easily by 7L.
River Maigue is currently enjoying a typical Supreme Novices preparation
from his connections. He travels well and although he is often keen
early on he has displayed the ability to finish off his races quite
strongly. It appears that he ranks quite highly in the pecking order of
novice hurdlers within his powerful stable. He was perhaps caught out by
a much more streetwise and professional racehorse on his debut and
despite having to race off level weights when they next meet it is
possible he can finish in front of that rival if his progression matches
his potential at this early stage of his career. He is likely to have
one more run as part of completing his quiet preparations for the
Supreme and if this run sees further progress there is every reason to
think he will be a leading player in March. His trainer has stated that
he copes well with a lot of work at home indicating mental as well as
physical strength.
Melodic Rendezvous
Winner of the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle (heavy) he has won 2 of his 3 starts
over hurdles, both on heavy ground, with the same deep underfoot
conditions for his 7L second to Champagne Fever at Punchestown. He was
beaten on his hurdles debut at Exeter by the cruising Mr Mole (good to
soft).
That Melodic Rendezvous has yet to race beyond 17f is perhaps surprising
given the pre-season feelings of connections that two and a half miles
would be the horse's optimum at this stage. This was perhaps reinforced
at Exeter where he was beaten by a slicker, quicker rival. At Exeter he
was prominent along the home stretch just behind the leader and in front
of Mr Mole but the latter cruised past him causing Melodic Rendezvous
to switch around his rear as he couldn't go with him. Stamina and no
lack of determination seemed to be dragging him along and although a
jink and a bump from Mr Mole didn't help his momentum over the last he
wasn't going forward in a hurry.
Tactically at Cheltenham on his second start they were in no rush to be
prominent as he was held up the whole way before smoothly making ground
to be ahead of a tightly bunched cluster of horses over the last where
he stayed on powerfully up the hill, chased home by Royal Boy who he
would then crush in the Tolworth. One thing worth noting was over some
hurdles he went up, over and kind of clamped his front end down, making
it a slower process than ideal getting away front the hurdle.
The Tolworth hurdle is usually the preserve of more staying types with
the notable exception in this context of Noland in 2006 (won the
Supreme). More prominent than at Cheltenham, he took a little while to
close up on the leader after that one injected a final kick to the last
flight. He grabbed the ground to move alongside and fractionally ahead
for a while before forging on late to score decisively.
We can see that Melodic Rendezvous is progressing with racing. His
attitude is admirable and he has given his all to the line in each of
his three races this season, suggesting mental strength. At times on
deep ground he has given the impression at times in these races of
travelling sweetly but on the whole it is worth noting that he has as
yet been unable to really outspeed a rival at any point. It is unwise,
perhaps, to reach to a conclusion about his likely ability to display
pace on better ground at this stage. It can be recalled recently how a
more staying type in Al Ferof benefitted from a pace war in a Supreme
Novices Hurdle. Another run may tell us more.
Un Atout
Unbeaten in one bumper and both starts over hurdles, all three races
have been on heavy ground. There was an eleven month gap between his
sole bumper win (January 2012) and his hurdles debut (December 2012).
Described pre-season as a "lovely big horse" by his trainer Un Atout
presents at this stage the ultimate under-the-radar profile. Raced only
twice, only on heavy ground and in weak contests he has outclassed his
rivals at times on looks alone: he does indeed have a size about him and
it is perhaps here where we can caution the 'could-be-anything' tag.
Raw, immature, a future staying chaser; he also raps the top of his
hurdles quite often. Granted, his paper profile tilts towards that which
so often underlines the winner of this contest but it is perhaps worth
displaying the patience of his connections to date when assessing his
chance of a toe-to-toe, helter skelter Supreme on better ground at a
stride quicker than so far. His next run, needless to say, will be most
informative.
Puffin Billy
Winner of the 2012 Kennel gate Novices Hurdle he is unbeaten in two
bumper and two hurdles starts on good to soft, soft and heavy ground. He
has won his four races by a total of 36 lengths (17, 9 / 5, 5) and been
visually impressive in each of them.
Said by his trainer to be quite highly strung Puffin Billy has relished
the soft ground he has encountered over hurdles winning both his
contests on the bridle. In some ways he has a similar run style to My
Tent Or Yours (keen, high class cruising speed) and a similar paper
profile to Un Atout (unbeaten in weak contests).
On his latest start Puffin Billy jumped his final two hurdles really
well; prior to that less so, a mish mash of getting in to close, not
being on the right stride and hitting the top bar. As with one or two of
his market rivals, mental preparedness could be quite important for
this horse: his keenness may be affecting his hurdling rhythm and whilst
a faster pace on better ground should help him in this respect it would
be interesting to see more from him in this respect on his next start.
Progressing well and with an impressive engine, he is a very interesting
contender if acquitting himself to run an even race to the line.
Wednesday, 23 January 2013
Monday, 7 January 2013
2013 Gold Cup - Preliminary Thoughts
First Lieutenant
2012 RSA Chase runner-up. He has won 2 of his 11 starts over fences. This is his second season over fences. He has not won any of his last 8 chases - the last 4 of his novice campaign and all 4 of his runs this season. First Lieutenant won the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle. He has won (career) on good, soft and heavy ground. His best run over fences was when runner-up in the RSA (beaten 2.5L). He has never won a G1 or G2 chase.
First Lieutenant has run with great consistency over fences without winning for a long time or showing a level of progression in his races commensurate with a potentially top class staying chaser. On all known evidence First Lieutenant had his ideal conditions in the RSA (3m & good ground) and was beaten fairly by Bobs Worth by 2.5L. In the Hennessy Gold Cup this season First Lieutenant had race fitness/practice under his belt and was in receipt of 1lb yet was beaten over 8L by the same rival. That form has a very solid feel to it as both he and the 2nd place horse, Tidal Bay, finished in almost the exact same proximity to each other in the Lexus Chase as they did at Newbury. Although it can be said that at Newbury First Lieutenant was in receipt of 7lbs and therefore may have improved to get closer to Tidal Bay off level weights in the Lexus this line of thinking is off-set by the likelihood of First Lieutenant failing to stay the extended trip at Newbury and benefitting from a return to 3m and equally that the 3m trip would have inconvenienced Tidal Bay more given that he had won over 30f on soft ground last season and was only able to prevail in Ireland in the final strides of the race.
First Lieutenant has run over a full array of distances and on a range of ground and his consistency shows that he often runs an honest race but falls short of being top class over fences. Bobs Worth outstayed him in the RSA last season and even more comprehensively over the extended trip at Newbury and it is hard to see any reason why he should get any closer to Bobs Worth at Cheltenham, particularly as that rival is much less exposed and more open to improvement at a track on which he excels. It is worth including in calculations the possibility that the 8L gap between them when they last met will be extended under Gold Cup conditions.
Silviniaco Conti
Winner of the 2012 Betfair Chase (beating Long Run by 2.5L) he also won the Charlie Hall Chase by 11L. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over fences on good, good to soft and soft ground and is unbeaten in his last 3 starts. He is the winner of a G1 Chase - his best run to date was his most recent - and was runner-up so Grand Crus in the Feltham Novices Chase in 2011, staying on powerfully to close the winner down on the run to the line. It is worth noting that following his debut in this country he has never run in a double-figure field.
Silviniaco Conti's best run last season came in the Feltham novices chase at Kempton (although his 13L beating of Champion Court at AIntree was a smart run also). At Kempton, he was outpaced mid-race by Grand Crus' injection of pace but he stayed on stoutly to close down his tiring rival to a 2L deficit. Grand Crus finished 3rd (beaten 14L) in the King George this season following a breathing operation. Silviniaco's novice season was most likely one of preparation and growth and he duly missed the festival after a flat run (4th) in the Reynoldstown before his impressive win at Aintree. He clearly summered well and was produced early to dismantle the Charlie Hall field before an impressive display in the Betfair Chase, beating Long Run who then went on to win the King George for a second time. Long Run was clearly not asked to race to win at all costs but that should not deflect attention away from the the athleticism and superiority of Ruby Walsh's mount on the day.
He has not raced since November 24th and it is possible that he will go to the Gold Cup without another run, although this is not confirmed at the time of writing. It is important to wait and see if he reappears prior to Cheltenham as another run would help us to learn more about him. His form and the style of his last three wins entitles him to a place at the top table in the staying chase division and the extent of his improvement curve is impossible to gauge going into the race, making him one of the least exposed and potentially most exciting challengers on any ground.
Sir Des Champs
Winner of the 2012 Jewson Novices Chase he has won 5 of his 7 starts over fences on good, soft and heavy ground. He has yet to win so far this season (2 starts). He has also won at the festival over hurdles in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle on only his second start on these shores. Until this season he was unbeaten. As with some other contenders his best run at the time of writing was his last one but he did not win or place, he was a very close fourth in the Lexus Chase over 3m on soft ground.
Sir Des Champs' Jewson win was much more about style and the impression he left than substance. It is important for his overall profile that he has bettered that run this season. In the Jewson his two main market rivals both disappointed and the quality of the race overall was lacking with every horse crossing the line at notable intervals. Still, he cruised round in a fluent, powerful rhythm and could be called the winner some way out. He then outclassed inferior rivals at Punchestown.
This season no emphasis has been placed by connections on remaining unbeaten. Indeed, if we are to take the post-Jewson comments of his trainer at face value then quite the opposite has been planned: "There's only one race for him next year and that's the big race on the Friday" with comparisons of quality made to the outstanding Florida Pearl. His season to date has backed up this view, contesting the top races without appearing to have been prepared for a full tilt at them. No match for a race fit Flemenstar in the John Durkan (20f) on heavy ground (beaten 5L) he got closer to that rival when 4th in the Lexus (3m), making sustained late headway after some less than athletic jumping on soft ground. Given both his festival wins were on good ground there is every reason to suspect that Sir Des Champs will improve when presented with the conditions of his target race following a more exacting preparation in the build-up. A huge threat to all if so. He will most likely race once more where he needs to affirm his seasonal progress in some way.
Bobs Worth
The 2012 RSA Chase winner. He has won 3 of his 5 starts over fences (having won 4 from 4 over hurdles) on good and good to soft ground. He has yet to race on going officially described as soft or worse. In his novice season he ran in the top RSA trial races where a breathing problem was eventually identified, emerging from corrective measures to win the RSA Chase by 2.5L from First Lieutenant. His best run was winning the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup where he beat Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. He has run once this season at the time of writing.
Bobs Worth is not particularly big - he would be overshadowed in physical terms by horses such as Sir Des Champs and Long Run. However he dwarfs many others with a combination of top class ability and a huge desire to win. A measure of his progression since a breathing problem was diagnosed is that he beat First Lieutenant by 2.5L in the RSA but by an increasing 8L in the Hennessy, where he beat the future Lexus winner Tidal Bay (gave 6lbs) by a comfortable looking 3.5L, picking up the pace progressively on the final circuit and surging to pole position without looking to relent.
Bobs Worth is unbeaten at Cheltenham and unbeaten in double-figure fields over obstacles which is quite remarkable and this part of his overall profile coupled with his successful battles with potential rivals in March highlights him as an outstanding candidate for the race. Although recent history suggests it is unlikely to be soft on the Friday it is something to bare in mind given that he has yet to compete on such a surface; it does appear that sounder underfoot conditions complement both his tactical pace and his capability to run to the limits of his stamina at the top level. It is not easy to see why any of the horses he has beaten already should be able to run closer to or beyond him in March. It will therefore be fascinating to see how Bobs Worth copes with the winners of the Betfair Chase and King George. A very worthy favourite at this stage.
Long Run
[Having spent a lot of time analysing him (successfully!) for the King George he needs evaluating in relation to HQ, but in short soft ground becomes important to him for a Gold Cup bid]
2012 RSA Chase runner-up. He has won 2 of his 11 starts over fences. This is his second season over fences. He has not won any of his last 8 chases - the last 4 of his novice campaign and all 4 of his runs this season. First Lieutenant won the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle. He has won (career) on good, soft and heavy ground. His best run over fences was when runner-up in the RSA (beaten 2.5L). He has never won a G1 or G2 chase.
First Lieutenant has run with great consistency over fences without winning for a long time or showing a level of progression in his races commensurate with a potentially top class staying chaser. On all known evidence First Lieutenant had his ideal conditions in the RSA (3m & good ground) and was beaten fairly by Bobs Worth by 2.5L. In the Hennessy Gold Cup this season First Lieutenant had race fitness/practice under his belt and was in receipt of 1lb yet was beaten over 8L by the same rival. That form has a very solid feel to it as both he and the 2nd place horse, Tidal Bay, finished in almost the exact same proximity to each other in the Lexus Chase as they did at Newbury. Although it can be said that at Newbury First Lieutenant was in receipt of 7lbs and therefore may have improved to get closer to Tidal Bay off level weights in the Lexus this line of thinking is off-set by the likelihood of First Lieutenant failing to stay the extended trip at Newbury and benefitting from a return to 3m and equally that the 3m trip would have inconvenienced Tidal Bay more given that he had won over 30f on soft ground last season and was only able to prevail in Ireland in the final strides of the race.
First Lieutenant has run over a full array of distances and on a range of ground and his consistency shows that he often runs an honest race but falls short of being top class over fences. Bobs Worth outstayed him in the RSA last season and even more comprehensively over the extended trip at Newbury and it is hard to see any reason why he should get any closer to Bobs Worth at Cheltenham, particularly as that rival is much less exposed and more open to improvement at a track on which he excels. It is worth including in calculations the possibility that the 8L gap between them when they last met will be extended under Gold Cup conditions.
Silviniaco Conti
Winner of the 2012 Betfair Chase (beating Long Run by 2.5L) he also won the Charlie Hall Chase by 11L. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over fences on good, good to soft and soft ground and is unbeaten in his last 3 starts. He is the winner of a G1 Chase - his best run to date was his most recent - and was runner-up so Grand Crus in the Feltham Novices Chase in 2011, staying on powerfully to close the winner down on the run to the line. It is worth noting that following his debut in this country he has never run in a double-figure field.
Silviniaco Conti's best run last season came in the Feltham novices chase at Kempton (although his 13L beating of Champion Court at AIntree was a smart run also). At Kempton, he was outpaced mid-race by Grand Crus' injection of pace but he stayed on stoutly to close down his tiring rival to a 2L deficit. Grand Crus finished 3rd (beaten 14L) in the King George this season following a breathing operation. Silviniaco's novice season was most likely one of preparation and growth and he duly missed the festival after a flat run (4th) in the Reynoldstown before his impressive win at Aintree. He clearly summered well and was produced early to dismantle the Charlie Hall field before an impressive display in the Betfair Chase, beating Long Run who then went on to win the King George for a second time. Long Run was clearly not asked to race to win at all costs but that should not deflect attention away from the the athleticism and superiority of Ruby Walsh's mount on the day.
He has not raced since November 24th and it is possible that he will go to the Gold Cup without another run, although this is not confirmed at the time of writing. It is important to wait and see if he reappears prior to Cheltenham as another run would help us to learn more about him. His form and the style of his last three wins entitles him to a place at the top table in the staying chase division and the extent of his improvement curve is impossible to gauge going into the race, making him one of the least exposed and potentially most exciting challengers on any ground.
Sir Des Champs
Winner of the 2012 Jewson Novices Chase he has won 5 of his 7 starts over fences on good, soft and heavy ground. He has yet to win so far this season (2 starts). He has also won at the festival over hurdles in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle on only his second start on these shores. Until this season he was unbeaten. As with some other contenders his best run at the time of writing was his last one but he did not win or place, he was a very close fourth in the Lexus Chase over 3m on soft ground.
Sir Des Champs' Jewson win was much more about style and the impression he left than substance. It is important for his overall profile that he has bettered that run this season. In the Jewson his two main market rivals both disappointed and the quality of the race overall was lacking with every horse crossing the line at notable intervals. Still, he cruised round in a fluent, powerful rhythm and could be called the winner some way out. He then outclassed inferior rivals at Punchestown.
This season no emphasis has been placed by connections on remaining unbeaten. Indeed, if we are to take the post-Jewson comments of his trainer at face value then quite the opposite has been planned: "There's only one race for him next year and that's the big race on the Friday" with comparisons of quality made to the outstanding Florida Pearl. His season to date has backed up this view, contesting the top races without appearing to have been prepared for a full tilt at them. No match for a race fit Flemenstar in the John Durkan (20f) on heavy ground (beaten 5L) he got closer to that rival when 4th in the Lexus (3m), making sustained late headway after some less than athletic jumping on soft ground. Given both his festival wins were on good ground there is every reason to suspect that Sir Des Champs will improve when presented with the conditions of his target race following a more exacting preparation in the build-up. A huge threat to all if so. He will most likely race once more where he needs to affirm his seasonal progress in some way.
Bobs Worth
The 2012 RSA Chase winner. He has won 3 of his 5 starts over fences (having won 4 from 4 over hurdles) on good and good to soft ground. He has yet to race on going officially described as soft or worse. In his novice season he ran in the top RSA trial races where a breathing problem was eventually identified, emerging from corrective measures to win the RSA Chase by 2.5L from First Lieutenant. His best run was winning the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup where he beat Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant. He has run once this season at the time of writing.
Bobs Worth is not particularly big - he would be overshadowed in physical terms by horses such as Sir Des Champs and Long Run. However he dwarfs many others with a combination of top class ability and a huge desire to win. A measure of his progression since a breathing problem was diagnosed is that he beat First Lieutenant by 2.5L in the RSA but by an increasing 8L in the Hennessy, where he beat the future Lexus winner Tidal Bay (gave 6lbs) by a comfortable looking 3.5L, picking up the pace progressively on the final circuit and surging to pole position without looking to relent.
Bobs Worth is unbeaten at Cheltenham and unbeaten in double-figure fields over obstacles which is quite remarkable and this part of his overall profile coupled with his successful battles with potential rivals in March highlights him as an outstanding candidate for the race. Although recent history suggests it is unlikely to be soft on the Friday it is something to bare in mind given that he has yet to compete on such a surface; it does appear that sounder underfoot conditions complement both his tactical pace and his capability to run to the limits of his stamina at the top level. It is not easy to see why any of the horses he has beaten already should be able to run closer to or beyond him in March. It will therefore be fascinating to see how Bobs Worth copes with the winners of the Betfair Chase and King George. A very worthy favourite at this stage.
Long Run
[Having spent a lot of time analysing him (successfully!) for the King George he needs evaluating in relation to HQ, but in short soft ground becomes important to him for a Gold Cup bid]
Wednesday, 2 January 2013
2013 Champion Hurdle - Preliminary Thoughts
Hurricane Fly
The 2011 Champion Hurdler. Has won 15 of 18 races over hurdles on all ground. This will be his 6th year as a hurdler although some of those seasons have been greatly reduced by injuries/niggles. His finest hour and his best ever run came in the 2011 renewal on good ground where, having travelled well throughout, he beat Peddlers Cross after a thrilling battle over the last with the very talented Oscar Whisky unable to land any kind of blow 6L back in 3rd.
Unfortunately the injuries/niggles returned the following season and he was limited to just one outing prior to the defence of his crown and that was on January 29 on heavy ground, beating Oscars Well 6.5L. Lack of training and conditioning told in March when he was unable to get close to the two prominent racers: he came off the bridle earlier than anticipated but stuck on for pressure to take 3rd. It was mentioned after the race (variously) that he (and Binocular) were held too far back by their jockeys suggesting 'poor rides' but there is no evidence for this and his 'flat' performance can be attributed to his physical problems through the season and in the lead-up to the race.
This season Hurricane Fly began his campaign by winning in November and followed that with a win in the Istabraq Festival Hurdle over the Christmas period. Whilst both wins were routine against inferior opposition they confirm for the time being that the horse is somewhere close to the required physical condition as he progresses through to March. It will be important for this horse in particular to run again prior to the festival. Should he make the festival his chance will not be all that clear. He has nearly six lengths to find from last season's running with the winner Rock On Ruby and he will not have faced the likes of Darlan or Grandouet before. Zarkandar is also likely to have improved after the problems he also had in the lead up to the race where he was only 1L behind Hurricane Fly in fifth. These horses are also much younger than a nine year old Hurricane Fly.
At his best Hurricane Fly is clearly a standout performer capable of winning a Champion Hurdle as he did two years ago. His preparation needs to be A1 to ensure that he at peak physical condition but given that he handles any ground, has performed superbly at the track and has a top class jockey then should he do so he will have a very good chance. It is worth noting, however, that the last horse to regain the Champion Hurdle (win, defeat, win) was Comedy of Errors in 1975 (1973). Also, given the physical problems that have formed part of Hurricane Fly's racing profile over the seasons, we can include that the last 9yo's+ to claim the Champion Hurdle since Sea Pigeon (aged 11) in 1981 were Royal Gait (9) in 1992 and Rooster Booster (9) in 2003. Against fiercely young and talented rivals it is fair to say a tough task awaits the Irish superstar.
Cinders And Ashes
The 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle winner. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over hurdles on good, soft and heavy ground. Four of his last five runs have been on heavy ground, the other was his Supreme win on good ground. This will be his second season as a hurdler. His best run by some way was at the festival. At the time of writing his two runs this season on heavy ground have been generally categorised as disappointing.
Cinders And Ashes had a four race build-up to the Supreme Novices. So far he has had two runs. A feature of his runs on heavy ground last season was his hurdling technique which at times was very good. This may have been helped by the slow pace of these races and the inferior quality of his opposition. In the Supreme he wasn't as fluent as perhaps was expected but he ran out a ready winner having travelled well through the contest to beat Darlan by over 2L - form that now appears very solid indeed despite the third and fifth performing poorly this season (the fourth has not made the track as yet).
Connections have often stated that their horse would prefer better ground so it is quite interesting to note that he has only been afforded such conditions twice in his short career and one of those was on his hurdling debut. Admittedly, this season has not provided an opportunity to run on goodish ground and as such he has been asked to run on deep ground. In novice company against inferior horses this proved no problem but in open company he has been soundly beaten on both occasions. However given both his form and repeated statements from connections suggest good ground is important we should be wary of assessing Cinders And Ashes on early season heavy ground performances. Obviously any ground with the word soft in the going would diminish his chances in March but equally on good ground he would line up as the least exposed horse in the race but with a strong piece of form in the book (Darlan may have received a slightly 'considerate' ride given the nature of his fall at Newbury but still had every chance to win).
Cinders And Ashes' run style is perhaps most similar to Grandouet's (stalking acceleration) which allows us to gauge how much improvement the Supreme Novices winner has to make to be challenging for a win or place in the Champion Hurdle.
Darlan
Runner-up in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle, Darlan is otherwise unbeaten in all completed starts winning 5 of his 7 hurdles races mainly on good ground and once on heavy. This is his second season as a hurdler. Arguably one of his best runs came at Newbury on good to soft ground in the Betfair Trophy Handicap Hurdle where he was travelling powerfully when taking a crashing fall 3 from home. Had he stayed on his feet we can suggest he would have gone very close to winning and some exact form with Zarkandar who won that particular race. To the horse's credit, Darlan showed great mental strength to not be affected by his juddering fall to finish second at the festival and then go on to record an impressive win at Aintree, beating the useful Captain Conan (stablemate) by 3.5L.
This season Darlan was due to run in the Racing Post Hurdle but was withdrawn due to the heavy ground. His profile up to this season had all been on good or good to soft ground so there was a clear concern from his trainer about racing out of deep ground. However with the wet conditions failing to relent Darlan was sent to the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on his debut where the ground was again heavy. He won easily beating Raya Star (OR155) by 4.5L. The race was notable for its lack of any early pace, perhaps due to the testing conditions. It resulted in an uneven gallop and a sprint for home rounding the final bend. Nonetheless, Darlan easily accounted also for the Triumph Hurdle and Fighting Fifth winner Countryside Flame, the 150-rated Dodging Bullets and the Supreme Novices winner and Fighting Fifth runner-up Cinders & Ashes. It is possible to suggest that had the ground been good he would have won by further but we cannot say this for sure; either way it was an authoritative display.
Despite quickening up best it would be wrong to class Darlan as a speedster in the Grandouet mould. Despite travelling powerfully in handicap company prior to his fall, Darlan was less eye-catching on that front in both his Supreme run and his Aintree win. He has the potential to maintain his position at elite level pace but has displayed over hurdles the lung-power to produce sustained pace towards the end of his races. This is probably best explained by connections viewing him as a potential Arkle horse for the season but deciding to retain his hurdling pathway for the time being. It is important in terms of understanding the horse's physique and current growth pattern that prior to the start of this season his trainer was adamant that "he looks every inch a chaser in the making". With the same stable having the red-hot favourite for the Arkle (at the time of writing) it was perhaps an easier decision than normal to keep Darlan over hurdles for this season but we can take from the extent of this stable's deliberations that they view their horse as potentially top class. He will need at least one more run prior to the festival to ensure physical preparedness for March, where a stiff 2m on good or good to soft ground at festival pace will be ideal.
Rock On Ruby
The reigning Champion Hurdler. Has completed all 9 starts over hurdles never finishing out of the first 3 and winning 3 times on good or good to soft ground. This will be his third season as a hurdler. His finest hour came in this race last year where he was prominent early, moved forward to join battle with Overturn before rounding the bound really powerfully to bound away from his opponents, defeating the resilient Overturn by nearly 4L with Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Zarkandar further adrift.
His win in March demonstrated his main attributes admirably: powerfully strong G1 running pace and a mental toughness to go with it, and good ground. On his preferred ground Rock on Ruby can already be said to be something of a Cheltenham specialist, a phrase which can sometimes hinder rather than reveal the true qualities of a horse. Taking away his reappearance run this season on heavy ground (3rd), his Cheltenham record reads: 1221 which also features his 2nd place finish in the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle won by the now classy chaser First Lieutenant. He had also finished 2nd to a certain Bobs Worth at the track.
The other key run to focus on was his narrow defeat in the Christmas Hurdle of 2011 to Binocular. Given his identifiable liking for the physical demands of Cheltenham his run at Kempton (which was to be his last prior to winning in March) perhaps looks better than it may have done at the time as both horses were hard ridden some way out and enjoined in a titanic struggle with the older horse just prevailing. Still, Overturn was 8L away in third giving the form of the race a solid look.
Rock On Ruby's reappearance this season was in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, race that also saw the reappearance of Grandouet. Both horses were conceding race fitness and 4lbs to Zarkandar who had previously won the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Despite fading late on to be beaten 8L Rock On Ruby can be said to have run with much credit. He travelled with his customary power on this track and was still moving far better than Zarkandar 2 out as that rival came off the bridle. From there race fitness appeared to tell as Zarkandar surged on once again and Rock On Ruby was pushed out once his race was run. After the race it was notable that both Ruby Walsh and Barry Gerraghty made specific reference to Rock On Ruby's appearance in the paddock in so much as they both agreed that he did not look 'match-fit' and would improve physically for the run. There was evidence to support this view during the race as despite racing together for much of the way Walsh only appeared to be concerned with Grandouet behind him, twice looking through his legs to judge where that rival was.
Rock On Ruby will require another run to hone his physical preparedness for March (he raced twice last season before March). On good or good to soft ground he will prove to be a very difficult opponent to pass and must have a sound chance of repeating his win in March. However at this stage he looks set to face an improved Zarkandar, a Hurricane Fly in better physical shape than last year's race and for the first time Grandouet who won the International Hurdle last season beating Overturn comfortably and who was in front of Rock On Ruby by 6L in this year's renewal on his reappearance on unsuitable ground also.
Zarkandar
The 2011 Triumph Hurdle winner has now won 6 of his 8 races over hurdles on good, good to soft and heavy ground. This is his third season over hurdles. His finest hour was his festival win but he has made considerable progress already this season, the most in fact of any of this season's contenders not least because he has seen the track twice already winning the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and the International Hurdle at Cheltenham (beating Grandouet by 2L).
Zarkandar's other notable success came in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, winning with an OR of 151 and defying a ten month absence. It should be noted that this is the same race in which Darlan OR146 was moving ominously well before crashing out 3 from home. Zarkandar's success showcased his ability to run well fresh (as at Wincanton) regardless of any reported problems during his time off (his trainer suggested he coughed at some point after the race). Viewed as a cluster of valuable races that he has won there can be no doubting the impressive, talented and resilient characteristics on display. The Betfair Hurdle win prompted a Champion Hurdle attempt in which he was tactically outpaced before staying on gallantly to finish fifth.
This season Zarkandar will likely be coming into the race on the back of three runs as opposed to last year's one so improvement with racing has to be factored in to his overall profile. Having finished fifth the season before and having already won two of the key 2m hurdle races before the turn of the year then Zarkandar has a clear chance of improving on his placing this coming March. There is however a gathering amount of evidence to suggest that over two miles in elite G1 company good ground may hinder his win chance considerably.
The Betfair Hurdle was run at a slow pace early, pointed to markedly on the RUK commentary. Zarkandar was unable to track the quickening mid-race pace comfortably, being niggled and ridden at that point. Darlan himself also had to be nudged to make progress but his advance through the field was much easier on the eye than Zarkandar's who in the final outcome had to be shaken up and ridden continuously to get to the lead at which point there was no other winner and he won comfortably.
In the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton he gave Supreme Novices fifth Prospect Wells 17lbs and won narrowly. He travelled notably well throughout the contest in which he and Prospect Wells were head to head for much of the way, Prospect Wells shaken up and ridden, Zarkandar much more comfortable. The concession of such weight is perhaps worthy of caution, however: Prospect Wells was then beaten 16L in tenth place in a 2m handicap off 146 before being stepped markedly up in trip to 25f on heavy ground where he was beaten 57L. We can therefore question what Zarkandar achieved by travelling all over this rival 2f out at Wincanton over 2m, but winning after being ridden by only a quarter of a length.
In the International Hurdle Zarkandar received albs from his two main rivals and met them with the Wincanton win under his belt as opposed to his two rivals arriving for their first race of the season. All would have been inconvenienced in some way by the deep ground. Zarkandar was asked to make the race a stamina test and he led from the start. However Rock On Ruby travelled much the better as Zarkandar came off the bridle two out having to be ridden to maintain his position before his enviable stamina qualities and attitude came to the fore to seal the race after the last. This run indicated a similarity to something that had happened already in the Champion Hurdle: Zarkandar was unable to go with the pace at elite level over 2m on goodish ground. He has in short been at his very best at the end of his races, suggesting he will be suited by further in time at the top level.
On good or natural good to soft ground a high degree of caution is advisable until we learn more about Zarkandar's ability to travel into a race under such conditions in March. The evidence of his runs to date highlight a determined and mentally strong horse who is much more likely to have his strengths revealed if the Champion Hurdle were to be run on genuinely soft ground, under which conditions his chance could be marked up appreciably.
Grandouet
The 2011 International Hurdle winner and runner-up in that event in 2012. This is his third season over hurdles. He has won 5 of his 11 starts over hurdles since arriving from France on good and good to soft ground. It is worth noting that Grandouet has yet to win in a double-figure field, although the only significant race in this respect was the Triumph Hurdle run on the New Course two years ago, where he finished 3rd to Zarkandar.
Grandouet is another horse from the Henderson stable to have close ties with Zarkandar, having fallen when travelling well at Aintree and chasing that rival home in this season's running of the International Hurdle. There is an element of supposition regarding Grandouet's overall profile due in part to him being forced to miss both the Kingwell Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle last season. However his beating of Overturn by 4L (in receipt of 4lbs) in the 2011 International Hurdle - his best run to date - indicates that in last season's Champion Hurdle he would have finished in the front three all things being equal.
On all known evidence Grandouet has a number of strong qualities. One of these relates to the manner of his victories: he is yet to win by less than 4L meaning he has completely outclassed his rivals in those races. Four of those are to be expected but, again, it is his dismissal of the eventual 2012 Champion Hurdle runner-up on his final outing of last season that prompts talk of him being a potential Champion Hurdle winner based on the form of last season's renewal.
Grandouet also possesses a highly distinctive run style which accounts for his wide margin successes against inferior opposition - on good or good to soft ground he is exceptionally fast. As well as the bare form of his win over Overturn it may be worthwhile factoring into calculations the ease with which Grandouet travelled through the race. Approaching the last hurdle Barry Geraghty had effectively run out of opponents to cover his mount up behind in the process of showing exceptional tactical pace. The key aspect of this is that the Champion Hurdle is run on the 'easier' Old Course which favours those horses with tactical acceleration and pace able to advance into gaps and steer around rivals for best positions.
Grandouet requires another run to prove his physical soundness in the lead-up to the festival. His electric speed and potentially elite level tactical pace may prove decisive on good or good to soft ground but soft or heavy ground would require a strong revision of his qualities under such conditions, where more stamina-laden horses would benefit.
The 2011 Champion Hurdler. Has won 15 of 18 races over hurdles on all ground. This will be his 6th year as a hurdler although some of those seasons have been greatly reduced by injuries/niggles. His finest hour and his best ever run came in the 2011 renewal on good ground where, having travelled well throughout, he beat Peddlers Cross after a thrilling battle over the last with the very talented Oscar Whisky unable to land any kind of blow 6L back in 3rd.
Unfortunately the injuries/niggles returned the following season and he was limited to just one outing prior to the defence of his crown and that was on January 29 on heavy ground, beating Oscars Well 6.5L. Lack of training and conditioning told in March when he was unable to get close to the two prominent racers: he came off the bridle earlier than anticipated but stuck on for pressure to take 3rd. It was mentioned after the race (variously) that he (and Binocular) were held too far back by their jockeys suggesting 'poor rides' but there is no evidence for this and his 'flat' performance can be attributed to his physical problems through the season and in the lead-up to the race.
This season Hurricane Fly began his campaign by winning in November and followed that with a win in the Istabraq Festival Hurdle over the Christmas period. Whilst both wins were routine against inferior opposition they confirm for the time being that the horse is somewhere close to the required physical condition as he progresses through to March. It will be important for this horse in particular to run again prior to the festival. Should he make the festival his chance will not be all that clear. He has nearly six lengths to find from last season's running with the winner Rock On Ruby and he will not have faced the likes of Darlan or Grandouet before. Zarkandar is also likely to have improved after the problems he also had in the lead up to the race where he was only 1L behind Hurricane Fly in fifth. These horses are also much younger than a nine year old Hurricane Fly.
At his best Hurricane Fly is clearly a standout performer capable of winning a Champion Hurdle as he did two years ago. His preparation needs to be A1 to ensure that he at peak physical condition but given that he handles any ground, has performed superbly at the track and has a top class jockey then should he do so he will have a very good chance. It is worth noting, however, that the last horse to regain the Champion Hurdle (win, defeat, win) was Comedy of Errors in 1975 (1973). Also, given the physical problems that have formed part of Hurricane Fly's racing profile over the seasons, we can include that the last 9yo's+ to claim the Champion Hurdle since Sea Pigeon (aged 11) in 1981 were Royal Gait (9) in 1992 and Rooster Booster (9) in 2003. Against fiercely young and talented rivals it is fair to say a tough task awaits the Irish superstar.
Cinders And Ashes
The 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle winner. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over hurdles on good, soft and heavy ground. Four of his last five runs have been on heavy ground, the other was his Supreme win on good ground. This will be his second season as a hurdler. His best run by some way was at the festival. At the time of writing his two runs this season on heavy ground have been generally categorised as disappointing.
Cinders And Ashes had a four race build-up to the Supreme Novices. So far he has had two runs. A feature of his runs on heavy ground last season was his hurdling technique which at times was very good. This may have been helped by the slow pace of these races and the inferior quality of his opposition. In the Supreme he wasn't as fluent as perhaps was expected but he ran out a ready winner having travelled well through the contest to beat Darlan by over 2L - form that now appears very solid indeed despite the third and fifth performing poorly this season (the fourth has not made the track as yet).
Connections have often stated that their horse would prefer better ground so it is quite interesting to note that he has only been afforded such conditions twice in his short career and one of those was on his hurdling debut. Admittedly, this season has not provided an opportunity to run on goodish ground and as such he has been asked to run on deep ground. In novice company against inferior horses this proved no problem but in open company he has been soundly beaten on both occasions. However given both his form and repeated statements from connections suggest good ground is important we should be wary of assessing Cinders And Ashes on early season heavy ground performances. Obviously any ground with the word soft in the going would diminish his chances in March but equally on good ground he would line up as the least exposed horse in the race but with a strong piece of form in the book (Darlan may have received a slightly 'considerate' ride given the nature of his fall at Newbury but still had every chance to win).
Cinders And Ashes' run style is perhaps most similar to Grandouet's (stalking acceleration) which allows us to gauge how much improvement the Supreme Novices winner has to make to be challenging for a win or place in the Champion Hurdle.
Darlan
Runner-up in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle, Darlan is otherwise unbeaten in all completed starts winning 5 of his 7 hurdles races mainly on good ground and once on heavy. This is his second season as a hurdler. Arguably one of his best runs came at Newbury on good to soft ground in the Betfair Trophy Handicap Hurdle where he was travelling powerfully when taking a crashing fall 3 from home. Had he stayed on his feet we can suggest he would have gone very close to winning and some exact form with Zarkandar who won that particular race. To the horse's credit, Darlan showed great mental strength to not be affected by his juddering fall to finish second at the festival and then go on to record an impressive win at Aintree, beating the useful Captain Conan (stablemate) by 3.5L.
This season Darlan was due to run in the Racing Post Hurdle but was withdrawn due to the heavy ground. His profile up to this season had all been on good or good to soft ground so there was a clear concern from his trainer about racing out of deep ground. However with the wet conditions failing to relent Darlan was sent to the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on his debut where the ground was again heavy. He won easily beating Raya Star (OR155) by 4.5L. The race was notable for its lack of any early pace, perhaps due to the testing conditions. It resulted in an uneven gallop and a sprint for home rounding the final bend. Nonetheless, Darlan easily accounted also for the Triumph Hurdle and Fighting Fifth winner Countryside Flame, the 150-rated Dodging Bullets and the Supreme Novices winner and Fighting Fifth runner-up Cinders & Ashes. It is possible to suggest that had the ground been good he would have won by further but we cannot say this for sure; either way it was an authoritative display.
Despite quickening up best it would be wrong to class Darlan as a speedster in the Grandouet mould. Despite travelling powerfully in handicap company prior to his fall, Darlan was less eye-catching on that front in both his Supreme run and his Aintree win. He has the potential to maintain his position at elite level pace but has displayed over hurdles the lung-power to produce sustained pace towards the end of his races. This is probably best explained by connections viewing him as a potential Arkle horse for the season but deciding to retain his hurdling pathway for the time being. It is important in terms of understanding the horse's physique and current growth pattern that prior to the start of this season his trainer was adamant that "he looks every inch a chaser in the making". With the same stable having the red-hot favourite for the Arkle (at the time of writing) it was perhaps an easier decision than normal to keep Darlan over hurdles for this season but we can take from the extent of this stable's deliberations that they view their horse as potentially top class. He will need at least one more run prior to the festival to ensure physical preparedness for March, where a stiff 2m on good or good to soft ground at festival pace will be ideal.
Rock On Ruby
The reigning Champion Hurdler. Has completed all 9 starts over hurdles never finishing out of the first 3 and winning 3 times on good or good to soft ground. This will be his third season as a hurdler. His finest hour came in this race last year where he was prominent early, moved forward to join battle with Overturn before rounding the bound really powerfully to bound away from his opponents, defeating the resilient Overturn by nearly 4L with Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Zarkandar further adrift.
His win in March demonstrated his main attributes admirably: powerfully strong G1 running pace and a mental toughness to go with it, and good ground. On his preferred ground Rock on Ruby can already be said to be something of a Cheltenham specialist, a phrase which can sometimes hinder rather than reveal the true qualities of a horse. Taking away his reappearance run this season on heavy ground (3rd), his Cheltenham record reads: 1221 which also features his 2nd place finish in the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle won by the now classy chaser First Lieutenant. He had also finished 2nd to a certain Bobs Worth at the track.
The other key run to focus on was his narrow defeat in the Christmas Hurdle of 2011 to Binocular. Given his identifiable liking for the physical demands of Cheltenham his run at Kempton (which was to be his last prior to winning in March) perhaps looks better than it may have done at the time as both horses were hard ridden some way out and enjoined in a titanic struggle with the older horse just prevailing. Still, Overturn was 8L away in third giving the form of the race a solid look.
Rock On Ruby's reappearance this season was in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, race that also saw the reappearance of Grandouet. Both horses were conceding race fitness and 4lbs to Zarkandar who had previously won the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Despite fading late on to be beaten 8L Rock On Ruby can be said to have run with much credit. He travelled with his customary power on this track and was still moving far better than Zarkandar 2 out as that rival came off the bridle. From there race fitness appeared to tell as Zarkandar surged on once again and Rock On Ruby was pushed out once his race was run. After the race it was notable that both Ruby Walsh and Barry Gerraghty made specific reference to Rock On Ruby's appearance in the paddock in so much as they both agreed that he did not look 'match-fit' and would improve physically for the run. There was evidence to support this view during the race as despite racing together for much of the way Walsh only appeared to be concerned with Grandouet behind him, twice looking through his legs to judge where that rival was.
Rock On Ruby will require another run to hone his physical preparedness for March (he raced twice last season before March). On good or good to soft ground he will prove to be a very difficult opponent to pass and must have a sound chance of repeating his win in March. However at this stage he looks set to face an improved Zarkandar, a Hurricane Fly in better physical shape than last year's race and for the first time Grandouet who won the International Hurdle last season beating Overturn comfortably and who was in front of Rock On Ruby by 6L in this year's renewal on his reappearance on unsuitable ground also.
Zarkandar
The 2011 Triumph Hurdle winner has now won 6 of his 8 races over hurdles on good, good to soft and heavy ground. This is his third season over hurdles. His finest hour was his festival win but he has made considerable progress already this season, the most in fact of any of this season's contenders not least because he has seen the track twice already winning the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and the International Hurdle at Cheltenham (beating Grandouet by 2L).
Zarkandar's other notable success came in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, winning with an OR of 151 and defying a ten month absence. It should be noted that this is the same race in which Darlan OR146 was moving ominously well before crashing out 3 from home. Zarkandar's success showcased his ability to run well fresh (as at Wincanton) regardless of any reported problems during his time off (his trainer suggested he coughed at some point after the race). Viewed as a cluster of valuable races that he has won there can be no doubting the impressive, talented and resilient characteristics on display. The Betfair Hurdle win prompted a Champion Hurdle attempt in which he was tactically outpaced before staying on gallantly to finish fifth.
This season Zarkandar will likely be coming into the race on the back of three runs as opposed to last year's one so improvement with racing has to be factored in to his overall profile. Having finished fifth the season before and having already won two of the key 2m hurdle races before the turn of the year then Zarkandar has a clear chance of improving on his placing this coming March. There is however a gathering amount of evidence to suggest that over two miles in elite G1 company good ground may hinder his win chance considerably.
The Betfair Hurdle was run at a slow pace early, pointed to markedly on the RUK commentary. Zarkandar was unable to track the quickening mid-race pace comfortably, being niggled and ridden at that point. Darlan himself also had to be nudged to make progress but his advance through the field was much easier on the eye than Zarkandar's who in the final outcome had to be shaken up and ridden continuously to get to the lead at which point there was no other winner and he won comfortably.
In the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton he gave Supreme Novices fifth Prospect Wells 17lbs and won narrowly. He travelled notably well throughout the contest in which he and Prospect Wells were head to head for much of the way, Prospect Wells shaken up and ridden, Zarkandar much more comfortable. The concession of such weight is perhaps worthy of caution, however: Prospect Wells was then beaten 16L in tenth place in a 2m handicap off 146 before being stepped markedly up in trip to 25f on heavy ground where he was beaten 57L. We can therefore question what Zarkandar achieved by travelling all over this rival 2f out at Wincanton over 2m, but winning after being ridden by only a quarter of a length.
In the International Hurdle Zarkandar received albs from his two main rivals and met them with the Wincanton win under his belt as opposed to his two rivals arriving for their first race of the season. All would have been inconvenienced in some way by the deep ground. Zarkandar was asked to make the race a stamina test and he led from the start. However Rock On Ruby travelled much the better as Zarkandar came off the bridle two out having to be ridden to maintain his position before his enviable stamina qualities and attitude came to the fore to seal the race after the last. This run indicated a similarity to something that had happened already in the Champion Hurdle: Zarkandar was unable to go with the pace at elite level over 2m on goodish ground. He has in short been at his very best at the end of his races, suggesting he will be suited by further in time at the top level.
On good or natural good to soft ground a high degree of caution is advisable until we learn more about Zarkandar's ability to travel into a race under such conditions in March. The evidence of his runs to date highlight a determined and mentally strong horse who is much more likely to have his strengths revealed if the Champion Hurdle were to be run on genuinely soft ground, under which conditions his chance could be marked up appreciably.
Grandouet
The 2011 International Hurdle winner and runner-up in that event in 2012. This is his third season over hurdles. He has won 5 of his 11 starts over hurdles since arriving from France on good and good to soft ground. It is worth noting that Grandouet has yet to win in a double-figure field, although the only significant race in this respect was the Triumph Hurdle run on the New Course two years ago, where he finished 3rd to Zarkandar.
Grandouet is another horse from the Henderson stable to have close ties with Zarkandar, having fallen when travelling well at Aintree and chasing that rival home in this season's running of the International Hurdle. There is an element of supposition regarding Grandouet's overall profile due in part to him being forced to miss both the Kingwell Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle last season. However his beating of Overturn by 4L (in receipt of 4lbs) in the 2011 International Hurdle - his best run to date - indicates that in last season's Champion Hurdle he would have finished in the front three all things being equal.
On all known evidence Grandouet has a number of strong qualities. One of these relates to the manner of his victories: he is yet to win by less than 4L meaning he has completely outclassed his rivals in those races. Four of those are to be expected but, again, it is his dismissal of the eventual 2012 Champion Hurdle runner-up on his final outing of last season that prompts talk of him being a potential Champion Hurdle winner based on the form of last season's renewal.
Grandouet also possesses a highly distinctive run style which accounts for his wide margin successes against inferior opposition - on good or good to soft ground he is exceptionally fast. As well as the bare form of his win over Overturn it may be worthwhile factoring into calculations the ease with which Grandouet travelled through the race. Approaching the last hurdle Barry Geraghty had effectively run out of opponents to cover his mount up behind in the process of showing exceptional tactical pace. The key aspect of this is that the Champion Hurdle is run on the 'easier' Old Course which favours those horses with tactical acceleration and pace able to advance into gaps and steer around rivals for best positions.
Grandouet requires another run to prove his physical soundness in the lead-up to the festival. His electric speed and potentially elite level tactical pace may prove decisive on good or good to soft ground but soft or heavy ground would require a strong revision of his qualities under such conditions, where more stamina-laden horses would benefit.
Saturday, 22 December 2012
Thoughts on Long Run via BST
(3 weeks ago)
The move to front-running Long Run only emphasizes the general point, although that can only be taken on trust once they line up.
It may help both horse and amateur jockey - the only thing to worry about from the front is getting the fractions right with no distractions. Most of his opposition are hardly going to be inclined to want to force it, in the way Nacarat always wanted to, and Kauto was out-the-ballpark good enough to.
Riverside is likely to sit second with his stamina now more in the confirmed box.
The reason i emphasize the 3m runs/form point is because at 2.5+ miles those in behind the front 2 are really going to start hurting. Providing there are no real thumping mistakes from Long Run that means they have to go into overdrive to overtake him at the very point where they're hurting the most because on paper they don't have the conditioning to stay well enough.
It's hard to envisage Long Run folding easily from 1st place because he always runs a very similar level of race.
Smaller field races aren't going to be much of a guide if they're going at LR's pace from the very start of the race - but that depends on SWC asking for no let-up at all on his mount and for LR to get into the kind of rhythm that saw him win it 2 years ago.
Lots of ifs, Kauto showed them how to do it last year though.
(19 days ago)
No change of gears definitely - he's one-paced absolutely no question.
Be very prominent/front-run - definitely, he finds it very hard to quicken at elite level pace.
Jockey - whatyagonnado aye
King George winner, Gold cup winner, dual Betfair Chase runner-up, Aon winner, King George runner-up, Gold Cup 3rd - for a horse aged 7 (and for any horse of any age) he has exceptionally strong form and sustained G1 3m top class ability.
Because of the nature of his extraordinary winning season he has since been assessed as if defeat is impossible: he must win every race to be a superstar and an unbeatable champion but that's not the M.O of the horse or necessarily the trainer: Long Run has been the victim of his own success. It points again to the sheer futility of "prices" in that because he's favourite he has to win and if he doesn't win he's not that good. Big Buck's puts that 'pressure' into perspective.
Here Sizing Europe is a fine example. A stunning Arkle winner but he was beaten all ends up in every single one of his starts after that until returning for the QMCC. That's not really very good at all is it? Some of them were by quite some way whereas LR very rarely gets beaten far (because he's actually got a really rare ability to sustain elite level 3m pace).
So yes Long Run has lost some battles. Last year he lost the races you highlight but what was going on? Was he ever really right. He got into an almighty war with one of the best racehorses of all time and got his ar$e handed to him fto as a result. Physically and mentally he was probably shot by that and, to boot, he was more than likely still progressing physically, or trying to. That's one hell of an ask and yet he still only went down narrowly in a KG managing to lunge at Kauto one last time too. It may have been his best effort to date all things considered?
Favourite for the King George: does he not have to be? Irrelevance of prices once more: were he 6 or 7/1+ everyone (nearly) would be saying that is "value": a crazy price for a KG winner & KG runner-up against a field with little 3m form. If anything one could say he 'should be' shorter but really it's all very pointless from an assessment p.o.v...
... The reaction to the Betfair Chase highlights some of the above. How on earth has he been beaten again, it's ridiculous, he's slow and not the horse he was.
I thought he looked the best he's ever been. I'm no expert on that, maybe he just had a shiny coat or something but he went through the race comfortably. If he's one-paced how can he possibly win a G1 slowly-run, stop-start affair against a horse who is in the form of his life, a superb 3m chaser and not far off favourite for the Gold Cup afterwards? Henderson had all but said they would tail him round without racing because of his hard race against Kauto last year. He's not been beaten far, what if Silvi wins the Gold Cup? How would the 2nd placing fto going easy look then?
Variety of thought.
Is the KG weaker? It might be. Didn't Al Ferof win a handicap in which only 6 finished? Should he be favourite? Should Cue Card be favourite, the buzzy Arkle runner-up that's never been 3m?
Then the race itself: it's a war, I think? I can't think of many "speed" horses winning a KG, Kicking King the last, but didn't he win a Gold Cup anyway, as Long Run has? Hell for leather from the off it's a brutal staying 3m like the World Hurdle where flashier, speedier, shorter-trip types get hurt badly and fade badly, that's assuming they're G1 class to start with.
Or is the race destined for the highest-rated chaser, the best 3m chaser in the race, a previous winner and runner-up of the race, a horse that can maintain 3m+ at one pace, elite pace?
##
That's obv the pro LR bit but it seems to make a whole world of sense.
Unless the horse is just "gone".
(17 days ago)
Whilst I like most agree it's not as if there needs to be a clock in his head, Long Run has elite level pace and stamina it's more that SWC has to do what Ruby did and not wait around if it's a bit of a dawdle. I'd think it was a no-brainer but if he's not thinking and waits 3 fences the race changes shape a bit..
Couldn't disagree more with HDB trying to push that SE is a 3m horse with no worries. Small field Graded races in Ireland are often muddling and he appeared not to stay in either attempt - ground can't be an excuse because he won a Tingle on deep ground.
There's also an assumption, myself included, that SE would have won the Champion Chase but for the final fence issue. Two things though: this confirms SE as a 2miler through and through and anything but a 3m stamina horse; and that level of form isn't necessarily red hot: Finian's struggled a bit until that day and had lost his Arkle before that.
(16 days ago)
Is Nicholas Mordino's conclusion an example of the confusion surrounding LR's abilities?
He says Silvi Conti's (sectional) times in the Betfair indicate him winning 4 out of 5 gold cups.
Yet being just 2.5L behind Long Run has gotten slower and less agile as a result of sizeable physical growth over the last two seasons.
If Conti is that good - and I think he certainly is - how can LR be so negatively evaluated when he's so close to him in a race that they were taking a shade easy and which had no pace until Conti injected it tactically (causing The Giant Bolster no end of problems as he points out)?
Do hypotheticals help? Had Kauto been retired LR's form figures would have been 1113 last season.
Watched Riverside's Ascot win again and he didn't half move through it well.
(3 days ago)
Cue Card is a very good G1 horse and a fast one too. Part of what makes him near top class, I think, is that he gives his all in his races. Exuberance at the start (over fences he has more or less led from the start in every race) and at the end: winning distances of 6L, 8L, 13L, 8L before fences and 3.5L, 4L (7L clear at the last) & 26L.
His jumping is adequate and not under scrutiny (needless) but he is far from foot perfect and makes enough mistakes for a horse with elite level pretensions.
Soft ground, it is reasonable to deduce, will have him in the red zone at the second last, if not before. Given his exuberance/determination to give everything, emptying the tank appears far more likely than running to the line.
Good luck to all betting on the King George.
The move to front-running Long Run only emphasizes the general point, although that can only be taken on trust once they line up.
It may help both horse and amateur jockey - the only thing to worry about from the front is getting the fractions right with no distractions. Most of his opposition are hardly going to be inclined to want to force it, in the way Nacarat always wanted to, and Kauto was out-the-ballpark good enough to.
Riverside is likely to sit second with his stamina now more in the confirmed box.
The reason i emphasize the 3m runs/form point is because at 2.5+ miles those in behind the front 2 are really going to start hurting. Providing there are no real thumping mistakes from Long Run that means they have to go into overdrive to overtake him at the very point where they're hurting the most because on paper they don't have the conditioning to stay well enough.
It's hard to envisage Long Run folding easily from 1st place because he always runs a very similar level of race.
Smaller field races aren't going to be much of a guide if they're going at LR's pace from the very start of the race - but that depends on SWC asking for no let-up at all on his mount and for LR to get into the kind of rhythm that saw him win it 2 years ago.
Lots of ifs, Kauto showed them how to do it last year though.
(19 days ago)
No change of gears definitely - he's one-paced absolutely no question.
Be very prominent/front-run - definitely, he finds it very hard to quicken at elite level pace.
Jockey - whatyagonnado aye
King George winner, Gold cup winner, dual Betfair Chase runner-up, Aon winner, King George runner-up, Gold Cup 3rd - for a horse aged 7 (and for any horse of any age) he has exceptionally strong form and sustained G1 3m top class ability.
Because of the nature of his extraordinary winning season he has since been assessed as if defeat is impossible: he must win every race to be a superstar and an unbeatable champion but that's not the M.O of the horse or necessarily the trainer: Long Run has been the victim of his own success. It points again to the sheer futility of "prices" in that because he's favourite he has to win and if he doesn't win he's not that good. Big Buck's puts that 'pressure' into perspective.
Here Sizing Europe is a fine example. A stunning Arkle winner but he was beaten all ends up in every single one of his starts after that until returning for the QMCC. That's not really very good at all is it? Some of them were by quite some way whereas LR very rarely gets beaten far (because he's actually got a really rare ability to sustain elite level 3m pace).
So yes Long Run has lost some battles. Last year he lost the races you highlight but what was going on? Was he ever really right. He got into an almighty war with one of the best racehorses of all time and got his ar$e handed to him fto as a result. Physically and mentally he was probably shot by that and, to boot, he was more than likely still progressing physically, or trying to. That's one hell of an ask and yet he still only went down narrowly in a KG managing to lunge at Kauto one last time too. It may have been his best effort to date all things considered?
Favourite for the King George: does he not have to be? Irrelevance of prices once more: were he 6 or 7/1+ everyone (nearly) would be saying that is "value": a crazy price for a KG winner & KG runner-up against a field with little 3m form. If anything one could say he 'should be' shorter but really it's all very pointless from an assessment p.o.v...
... The reaction to the Betfair Chase highlights some of the above. How on earth has he been beaten again, it's ridiculous, he's slow and not the horse he was.
I thought he looked the best he's ever been. I'm no expert on that, maybe he just had a shiny coat or something but he went through the race comfortably. If he's one-paced how can he possibly win a G1 slowly-run, stop-start affair against a horse who is in the form of his life, a superb 3m chaser and not far off favourite for the Gold Cup afterwards? Henderson had all but said they would tail him round without racing because of his hard race against Kauto last year. He's not been beaten far, what if Silvi wins the Gold Cup? How would the 2nd placing fto going easy look then?
Variety of thought.
Is the KG weaker? It might be. Didn't Al Ferof win a handicap in which only 6 finished? Should he be favourite? Should Cue Card be favourite, the buzzy Arkle runner-up that's never been 3m?
Then the race itself: it's a war, I think? I can't think of many "speed" horses winning a KG, Kicking King the last, but didn't he win a Gold Cup anyway, as Long Run has? Hell for leather from the off it's a brutal staying 3m like the World Hurdle where flashier, speedier, shorter-trip types get hurt badly and fade badly, that's assuming they're G1 class to start with.
Or is the race destined for the highest-rated chaser, the best 3m chaser in the race, a previous winner and runner-up of the race, a horse that can maintain 3m+ at one pace, elite pace?
##
That's obv the pro LR bit but it seems to make a whole world of sense.
Unless the horse is just "gone".
(17 days ago)
Whilst I like most agree it's not as if there needs to be a clock in his head, Long Run has elite level pace and stamina it's more that SWC has to do what Ruby did and not wait around if it's a bit of a dawdle. I'd think it was a no-brainer but if he's not thinking and waits 3 fences the race changes shape a bit..
Couldn't disagree more with HDB trying to push that SE is a 3m horse with no worries. Small field Graded races in Ireland are often muddling and he appeared not to stay in either attempt - ground can't be an excuse because he won a Tingle on deep ground.
There's also an assumption, myself included, that SE would have won the Champion Chase but for the final fence issue. Two things though: this confirms SE as a 2miler through and through and anything but a 3m stamina horse; and that level of form isn't necessarily red hot: Finian's struggled a bit until that day and had lost his Arkle before that.
(16 days ago)
Is Nicholas Mordino's conclusion an example of the confusion surrounding LR's abilities?
He says Silvi Conti's (sectional) times in the Betfair indicate him winning 4 out of 5 gold cups.
Yet being just 2.5L behind Long Run has gotten slower and less agile as a result of sizeable physical growth over the last two seasons.
If Conti is that good - and I think he certainly is - how can LR be so negatively evaluated when he's so close to him in a race that they were taking a shade easy and which had no pace until Conti injected it tactically (causing The Giant Bolster no end of problems as he points out)?
Do hypotheticals help? Had Kauto been retired LR's form figures would have been 1113 last season.
Watched Riverside's Ascot win again and he didn't half move through it well.
(3 days ago)
Cue Card is a very good G1 horse and a fast one too. Part of what makes him near top class, I think, is that he gives his all in his races. Exuberance at the start (over fences he has more or less led from the start in every race) and at the end: winning distances of 6L, 8L, 13L, 8L before fences and 3.5L, 4L (7L clear at the last) & 26L.
His jumping is adequate and not under scrutiny (needless) but he is far from foot perfect and makes enough mistakes for a horse with elite level pretensions.
Soft ground, it is reasonable to deduce, will have him in the red zone at the second last, if not before. Given his exuberance/determination to give everything, emptying the tank appears far more likely than running to the line.
Good luck to all betting on the King George.
Sunday, 16 December 2012
Structured consistency: approach rundown
What better to get stuck into than a fair few non-winning selections? As a preface I'll take the opportunity to stress that the ultimate concern in my thinking is finding the likeliest winner of a race. In that respect backing three, four, five and more horses in any one race makes no appeal - that in itself is very easy to do. Trading holds no place whatsoever in analysis either. The other point of note is the general ethos behind winner finding: how accurate is the analysis trying to be, how predictive and how intent on reading the race correctly or more seeking a pay-out / ROI.
The strongest conclusion (as I've already thought about this a little) is likely to be that the process is sound (this will require mentioning successful bets from BST from last season but then this blog is merely an extension of that anyway) but has structural deficiencies arising from a) the timing of race analysis due to work commitments; b) variance; and c) a lack of focus on ROI. The latter one is quite surprising but it seems to be the case that initial financial return of any kind has been overlaid by backing a singular strand of analysis. All that should become clearer as I explain my losing bets posted on here; anyone reading where I went wrong AND how I was unable to steer myself onto the correct path may derive some benefit for their own approach.
Paddy Power Gold Cup
Perhaps one the trickiest things I find is weighing up the absolute quality of a race. On this occasion it wasn't a problem. It was a shocking renewal on desperate ground. I had little interest in the race having initially identified Notus De La Tour (more on him later) and with activity elsewhere focus on the race was below the required standard (#error). Because of the poor nature of the race in absolute terms (I did not rate Walkon highly at all before the off) it seemed clear that if Grand Crus reproduced his Feltham win he was by far the likeliest winner. A breathing problem (at least) ensured he was pulled up. The main #error was approaching the race from a very early point of view. Last season and indeed whenever possible decisions were left as late as possible. A combination of work commitments and poor overall focus led me to tackle the race early. This caused two problems: firstly, having decided on the shape of the race before confirmed runners and ground were known, I was blinded to the late swell of activity and betting moves for the winner Al Ferof. Secondly this meant I was unable to give Al Ferof due consideration and instead relied on an overall impression of him from last season. Whilst this is still probably accurate (I think) it meant he was not assessed in the context of this race and its super-weak field. This led to an improbable u-turn on the fav - whom I had raised considerable doubts about on these pages - due to the initial weighting of the race as poor and there being almost no alternatives (this in itself is often not the case of course). Whilst I didn't back Grand Crus for the race outright (he went into some small multi's instead) the lack of focus and desire/need to play the race early led to a poor conclusion.
Hennessy Gold Cup
The above was compounded by a classical timing + analytical error in this race. In essence, this race boils down to Graded class ability v handicap (progression) ability. With a deluge of rain mid-week and the favourite Bob's Worth perhaps unlikely to run in such conditions (or if running on a bog) I again played the race ante-post and again it was unsuccessful. With deep ground the call was made to side with handicappers who had shown fair form and who might operate best over the trip. In terms of actual finishing positions the selections were good: taking away the top three who were all Graded class they finished in second and fourth (fifth & seventh). Whether the ground was in fact ever a concern for the analysis (class outs) is a kind of mute point as the ground dried significantly and the three Graded class horses ran through the deep end of the race to the line. With day of race conditions the decision not to side with fair handicappers would have been much easier but even here we have a key #error: "In essence, this race boils down to Graded class ability v handicap (progression) ability." so the correct play would have been one of each, a handicapper and one of the classy crop. Given I have continuing doubts as to the residual class and resolution of First Lieutenant then the winner could have been included in a strategy designed on ensuring an ROI. Strange as it sounds, I was happy to double-barrel the handicappers rather than take a more balanced approach which has to be noted for future runnings where the final decision is deemed marginal (which it was here during the downpours). This is also linked to the Likeliest Winner approach as covering all race scenarios leads to unwarranted numbers of bets on several horses in one race. The handicap picks were good; the approach to the race balance was not, ultimately leading to a poor conclusion.
December Gold Cup
Much less self-criticism required here as this was more than anything simply variance given my overall approach. A strategy I am very happy with is to rarely ever back 4yo's in big(ish) handicaps and to never back horses aged 12+. It simply rules out a lot of horses that return a miniscule win ratio. Of course there is a contra point that surely it is best to assess races on their individual merits and work from there and that is viable but I had already had a reversal in this race with a 5yo (as mentioned, Robinson Collonges) and despite Unioniste's "tougher" profile he was still a baby in my eyes! That overall explains why I said he "should be a million". Of course were it solely that it would be a slightly enigmatic approach but there was of course a very interesting candidate on paper that reminded me a little of Great Endeavour and it was a shame that Notus De La Tour developed a physical problem or just wasn't right on the day. Walkon has now finished second in both big intermediate handicaps. Analytical flaw? Quite the opposite and I am very happy to always field against this type of animal, for all that he has actually run quite well! He just hasn't looked like winning either race and for all the media coverage and shortness of price his profile is just neither progressive nor does he have performances of residual class in the bank following his time on the sidelines when injured. There is a good post on BST (not by me obviously) that shows the potential benefit for those who took Unioniste on merit rather than age. They'll win bad races like that now and then but little else outside of their own age group at that level.
The Betfair Chase was a quietly compelling race that was fine analytically with the winner pin-pointed. The real benefit was, potentially, doubling up the winner with Long Run in the King George. This is part of an overall strategy of pot control this season - to not get caught up in the here and now of any one race but also to maximise correct thinking across a number of races for a bigger return later down the line (should such longer term thinking bear fruit). This example gave 14/1 about Long Run on Boxing Day. The downside is not maximising the on-the-day win but in terms of the races highlighted here we can see that that's not a problem! Had they won though the potential for greater returns would kick in which is something I'm happy to pursue this season for a number of strategic reasons.
The Becher Chase saw another selected runner pulled up (this time with an abject display) but as a returning hero this is again more variance than anything else, particularly as the winner was a 14yo! West End Rocker remains well handicapped in part because he is just so impossible to be consistent with. Well, he may have the odd mental issue too. As an overall strategy he goes hand-in-hand with other returning heroes like Merigo and Always Waining and as such they will not always repeat win and this was a case in point. In theory the process was solid because had he performed then based on his demolition of Niche Market last season he would have accounted for a field led by the admirable but now retired (!) Hello Bud.
The fact that the four handicaps failed to produce a winner, whereas the Grade 1 contest proved accurate has personal ramifications. Handicaps are often best approached as late as possible when all information is known except in those circumstances where a horse has been tracked specifically with a certain race or conditions in mind. Handicaps in particular often take on different complexions as stable information is slowly revealed and certain runners come and go, with ground conditions assured (many times they are but this season has provided a good example of rapid change from stated/suspected descriptions).
In contrast the abilities of graded horses can be more accurately defined from some way out: intentions are often clearer, preparations much more significant and traceable. In the Betfair for example, from a long way out it was made clear that Long Run would have a gentle introduction and that Silviniaco Conti was race-fit and firing on all cylinders for the race making assessment easy.
Focus, patience and tactical betting all require further work with a keener eye kept on ROI policies, strange as that may sound: without an A-Game mentality analyses can wend a winding path leading to the kind of errors identified above.
Tuesday, 11 December 2012
Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup
Another big handicap set to be subject to rapid ground change presenting caution as the watchword. Anyway:
I remember backing Robinson Collonges in this a couple of years ago. He had looked all set to hammer Wishful Thinking in the Rising Stars at Wincanton but fell instead. Dotted up in a racecourse gallop afterwards to show well-being so the money went down. But he was a 5yo. He was traveling comfortably enough under Walsh but he hammered 3 out and that was it: taken out of his comfort zone he eased home 9th beaten 45 lengths. Tough ask for one so young. His form figures since that day perhaps reveal how hard a race he actually had overall: PP305P0.
Unioniste should be a million. Maybe his 2 - two - chase starts in this country have him prepared for the grueling mental and physical demands these types of handicaps place on very young horses. PN, you would think, knows otherwise and the Novices Chase entry seems far more sensible for the baby horse.
Walkon is interesting for a number of reasons, although he too I plain can't have. Quantitativeeasing was second in a rip-roaring (handicap-level-wise) renewal of the Paddy Power and came to this race and won a thriller of a top-class renewal (all-round). I'd suggest Walkon has neither the steeply progressive aspect nor the proven class in the bank to be effective as a bet option. Error? He did beat the uninspiring Zaynar at Exeter AND Notus De La Tour who was 3rd. NDLT was giving away 8lbs that day as a 5yo, and he was building slowly towards being a festival plot horse (I'd suggest). Now it's a 12lbs swing in NDLT's favour with Walkon exposed a) by being beaten 50L in 3 top class races before puling up in a Scottish National and b) not winning fresh with cut off 143 (now 5lbs higher).
Heavy rainfall would aid his chance however.
I remember backing Robinson Collonges in this a couple of years ago. He had looked all set to hammer Wishful Thinking in the Rising Stars at Wincanton but fell instead. Dotted up in a racecourse gallop afterwards to show well-being so the money went down. But he was a 5yo. He was traveling comfortably enough under Walsh but he hammered 3 out and that was it: taken out of his comfort zone he eased home 9th beaten 45 lengths. Tough ask for one so young. His form figures since that day perhaps reveal how hard a race he actually had overall: PP305P0.
Unioniste should be a million. Maybe his 2 - two - chase starts in this country have him prepared for the grueling mental and physical demands these types of handicaps place on very young horses. PN, you would think, knows otherwise and the Novices Chase entry seems far more sensible for the baby horse.
Walkon is interesting for a number of reasons, although he too I plain can't have. Quantitativeeasing was second in a rip-roaring (handicap-level-wise) renewal of the Paddy Power and came to this race and won a thriller of a top-class renewal (all-round). I'd suggest Walkon has neither the steeply progressive aspect nor the proven class in the bank to be effective as a bet option. Error? He did beat the uninspiring Zaynar at Exeter AND Notus De La Tour who was 3rd. NDLT was giving away 8lbs that day as a 5yo, and he was building slowly towards being a festival plot horse (I'd suggest). Now it's a 12lbs swing in NDLT's favour with Walkon exposed a) by being beaten 50L in 3 top class races before puling up in a Scottish National and b) not winning fresh with cut off 143 (now 5lbs higher).
Heavy rainfall would aid his chance however.
For me the race revolves around the Pipe stable and NDLT. Originally ear-marked as being well-forward and second up in the RPTV stable stars tour, the amount of concrete news on him has been meagre. Suggestions of slight hold-ups in training aside it seems a simpler case that Grand Crus was their Paddy Power horse and NDLT their December one. He went close to winning a G1 in soft ground before being sent off 5/2 for the Irish Arkle that Flemenstar took apart. NDLT led early and remained prominent for a long way until the winner's outrageous ability took over. They were perhaps finding out in part just how good their horse was but at the same time gaining a low-ish handicap mark and he duly turned up for the Byrne Group Plate as an 8/1 shot jumping three fences sweetly before lacking the appropriate landing gear on descent.
NDLT had some high-level handicap hurdle form also and everything appears in place after a summer of further maturation for a huge run off a very feasible handicap mark in a weak renewal. Cristal Bonus could be the danger despite a stiff OR. Over to the Pipes!
Champion Hurdle 2013 - Grandouet
The 2012 Champion Hurdle really wasn't very good at all. The winner and second are honest prominent gallopers and another one of those, Celestial Halo, finished 9th after helping to set the pace. Oscars Well had the choke out as has been standard for him (fading into 6th) and Zarkandar, like Hurricane Fly, came to the race off only a 1-stop preparation, leaving them physically weak and unprepared. Binocular had finished 4.5L behind Overturn in the Fighting Fifth and, having beaten the winner in the Christmas Hurdle, drifted a further 2L behind Overturn in 4th in a more physically demanding race. Overturn himself is admirable and tough, in some ways like Binocular himself, without either being a hurdling star in any way (although many will argue Bincoular was on one occasion at least).
Given the weak texture knitted by those runners Hurricane Fly could well have been below par and won or been second but he was a mile from match-fitness and failed to respond in the way he previously could as far out as the second last. Here though lies a clue as to the overall weakness of the race.
The pace had been good without being breakneck which is eminently sensible. The entire field were still clustered quite closely together until three and two out at which point Overturn and Rock on Ruby engaged a battling stream of turbo grind leaving the aging Binocular and the ill-prepared Hurricane Fly staring down a physical brick wall. By the last hurdle however the also-ran, pumped along and off the bridle, had closed up once more to be challenging without any prospect of getting past the tearaway two.
This "slipping" of the field by Overturn and Rock on Ruby had everything to do with the physical ability and preparedness of the front two compared to the declining forces of the third and fourth and the troubled preparation of the fifth (and third). Running evenly to the line was simply enough in this race and Rock on Ruby - having lost to Binocular at Kempton in the manner of a resolute galloper - did that best. It was in fact Overturn who emerged with the best performance, however, having been 8L behind Rock On Ruby on that occasion and only 3.5L at HQ, trumping Binocular in the process.
The International on Saturday should help to enlarge the picture as three main rivals clash (depending on the ground) but whatever the outcome of that race the 2013 Champion Hurdle is open and available to be taken apart by a horse with a little star quality and, excitingly, some real speed.
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