Hurricane Fly
The 2011 Champion Hurdler. Has won 15 of 18 races over hurdles on all ground. This will be his 6th year as a hurdler although some of those seasons have been greatly reduced by injuries/niggles. His finest hour and his best ever run came in the 2011 renewal on good ground where, having travelled well throughout, he beat Peddlers Cross after a thrilling battle over the last with the very talented Oscar Whisky unable to land any kind of blow 6L back in 3rd.
Unfortunately the injuries/niggles returned the following season and he was limited to just one outing prior to the defence of his crown and that was on January 29 on heavy ground, beating Oscars Well 6.5L. Lack of training and conditioning told in March when he was unable to get close to the two prominent racers: he came off the bridle earlier than anticipated but stuck on for pressure to take 3rd. It was mentioned after the race (variously) that he (and Binocular) were held too far back by their jockeys suggesting 'poor rides' but there is no evidence for this and his 'flat' performance can be attributed to his physical problems through the season and in the lead-up to the race.
This season Hurricane Fly began his campaign by winning in November and followed that with a win in the Istabraq Festival Hurdle over the Christmas period. Whilst both wins were routine against inferior opposition they confirm for the time being that the horse is somewhere close to the required physical condition as he progresses through to March. It will be important for this horse in particular to run again prior to the festival. Should he make the festival his chance will not be all that clear. He has nearly six lengths to find from last season's running with the winner Rock On Ruby and he will not have faced the likes of Darlan or Grandouet before. Zarkandar is also likely to have improved after the problems he also had in the lead up to the race where he was only 1L behind Hurricane Fly in fifth. These horses are also much younger than a nine year old Hurricane Fly.
At his best Hurricane Fly is clearly a standout performer capable of winning a Champion Hurdle as he did two years ago. His preparation needs to be A1 to ensure that he at peak physical condition but given that he handles any ground, has performed superbly at the track and has a top class jockey then should he do so he will have a very good chance. It is worth noting, however, that the last horse to regain the Champion Hurdle (win, defeat, win) was Comedy of Errors in 1975 (1973). Also, given the physical problems that have formed part of Hurricane Fly's racing profile over the seasons, we can include that the last 9yo's+ to claim the Champion Hurdle since Sea Pigeon (aged 11) in 1981 were Royal Gait (9) in 1992 and Rooster Booster (9) in 2003. Against fiercely young and talented rivals it is fair to say a tough task awaits the Irish superstar.
Cinders And Ashes
The 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle winner. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over hurdles on good, soft and heavy ground. Four of his last five runs have been on heavy ground, the other was his Supreme win on good ground. This will be his second season as a hurdler. His best run by some way was at the festival. At the time of writing his two runs this season on heavy ground have been generally categorised as disappointing.
Cinders And Ashes had a four race build-up to the Supreme Novices. So far he has had two runs. A feature of his runs on heavy ground last season was his hurdling technique which at times was very good. This may have been helped by the slow pace of these races and the inferior quality of his opposition. In the Supreme he wasn't as fluent as perhaps was expected but he ran out a ready winner having travelled well through the contest to beat Darlan by over 2L - form that now appears very solid indeed despite the third and fifth performing poorly this season (the fourth has not made the track as yet).
Connections have often stated that their horse would prefer better ground so it is quite interesting to note that he has only been afforded such conditions twice in his short career and one of those was on his hurdling debut. Admittedly, this season has not provided an opportunity to run on goodish ground and as such he has been asked to run on deep ground. In novice company against inferior horses this proved no problem but in open company he has been soundly beaten on both occasions. However given both his form and repeated statements from connections suggest good ground is important we should be wary of assessing Cinders And Ashes on early season heavy ground performances. Obviously any ground with the word soft in the going would diminish his chances in March but equally on good ground he would line up as the least exposed horse in the race but with a strong piece of form in the book (Darlan may have received a slightly 'considerate' ride given the nature of his fall at Newbury but still had every chance to win).
Cinders And Ashes' run style is perhaps most similar to Grandouet's (stalking acceleration) which allows us to gauge how much improvement the Supreme Novices winner has to make to be challenging for a win or place in the Champion Hurdle.
Darlan
Runner-up in the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle, Darlan is otherwise unbeaten in all completed starts winning 5 of his 7 hurdles races mainly on good ground and once on heavy. This is his second season as a hurdler. Arguably one of his best runs came at Newbury on good to soft ground in the Betfair Trophy Handicap Hurdle where he was travelling powerfully when taking a crashing fall 3 from home. Had he stayed on his feet we can suggest he would have gone very close to winning and some exact form with Zarkandar who won that particular race. To the horse's credit, Darlan showed great mental strength to not be affected by his juddering fall to finish second at the festival and then go on to record an impressive win at Aintree, beating the useful Captain Conan (stablemate) by 3.5L.
This season Darlan was due to run in the Racing Post Hurdle but was withdrawn due to the heavy ground. His profile up to this season had all been on good or good to soft ground so there was a clear concern from his trainer about racing out of deep ground. However with the wet conditions failing to relent Darlan was sent to the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on his debut where the ground was again heavy. He won easily beating Raya Star (OR155) by 4.5L. The race was notable for its lack of any early pace, perhaps due to the testing conditions. It resulted in an uneven gallop and a sprint for home rounding the final bend. Nonetheless, Darlan easily accounted also for the Triumph Hurdle and Fighting Fifth winner Countryside Flame, the 150-rated Dodging Bullets and the Supreme Novices winner and Fighting Fifth runner-up Cinders & Ashes. It is possible to suggest that had the ground been good he would have won by further but we cannot say this for sure; either way it was an authoritative display.
Despite quickening up best it would be wrong to class Darlan as a speedster in the Grandouet mould. Despite travelling powerfully in handicap company prior to his fall, Darlan was less eye-catching on that front in both his Supreme run and his Aintree win. He has the potential to maintain his position at elite level pace but has displayed over hurdles the lung-power to produce sustained pace towards the end of his races. This is probably best explained by connections viewing him as a potential Arkle horse for the season but deciding to retain his hurdling pathway for the time being. It is important in terms of understanding the horse's physique and current growth pattern that prior to the start of this season his trainer was adamant that "he looks every inch a chaser in the making". With the same stable having the red-hot favourite for the Arkle (at the time of writing) it was perhaps an easier decision than normal to keep Darlan over hurdles for this season but we can take from the extent of this stable's deliberations that they view their horse as potentially top class. He will need at least one more run prior to the festival to ensure physical preparedness for March, where a stiff 2m on good or good to soft ground at festival pace will be ideal.
Rock On Ruby
The reigning Champion Hurdler. Has completed all 9 starts over hurdles never finishing out of the first 3 and winning 3 times on good or good to soft ground. This will be his third season as a hurdler. His finest hour came in this race last year where he was prominent early, moved forward to join battle with Overturn before rounding the bound really powerfully to bound away from his opponents, defeating the resilient Overturn by nearly 4L with Hurricane Fly, Binocular and Zarkandar further adrift.
His win in March demonstrated his main attributes admirably: powerfully strong G1 running pace and a mental toughness to go with it, and good ground. On his preferred ground Rock on Ruby can already be said to be something of a Cheltenham specialist, a phrase which can sometimes hinder rather than reveal the true qualities of a horse. Taking away his reappearance run this season on heavy ground (3rd), his Cheltenham record reads: 1221 which also features his 2nd place finish in the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle won by the now classy chaser First Lieutenant. He had also finished 2nd to a certain Bobs Worth at the track.
The other key run to focus on was his narrow defeat in the Christmas Hurdle of 2011 to Binocular. Given his identifiable liking for the physical demands of Cheltenham his run at Kempton (which was to be his last prior to winning in March) perhaps looks better than it may have done at the time as both horses were hard ridden some way out and enjoined in a titanic struggle with the older horse just prevailing. Still, Overturn was 8L away in third giving the form of the race a solid look.
Rock On Ruby's reappearance this season was in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham, race that also saw the reappearance of Grandouet. Both horses were conceding race fitness and 4lbs to Zarkandar who had previously won the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Despite fading late on to be beaten 8L Rock On Ruby can be said to have run with much credit. He travelled with his customary power on this track and was still moving far better than Zarkandar 2 out as that rival came off the bridle. From there race fitness appeared to tell as Zarkandar surged on once again and Rock On Ruby was pushed out once his race was run. After the race it was notable that both Ruby Walsh and Barry Gerraghty made specific reference to Rock On Ruby's appearance in the paddock in so much as they both agreed that he did not look 'match-fit' and would improve physically for the run. There was evidence to support this view during the race as despite racing together for much of the way Walsh only appeared to be concerned with Grandouet behind him, twice looking through his legs to judge where that rival was.
Rock On Ruby will require another run to hone his physical preparedness for March (he raced twice last season before March). On good or good to soft ground he will prove to be a very difficult opponent to pass and must have a sound chance of repeating his win in March. However at this stage he looks set to face an improved Zarkandar, a Hurricane Fly in better physical shape than last year's race and for the first time Grandouet who won the International Hurdle last season beating Overturn comfortably and who was in front of Rock On Ruby by 6L in this year's renewal on his reappearance on unsuitable ground also.
Zarkandar
The 2011 Triumph Hurdle winner has now won 6 of his 8 races over hurdles on good, good to soft and heavy ground. This is his third season over hurdles. His finest hour was his festival win but he has made considerable progress already this season, the most in fact of any of this season's contenders not least because he has seen the track twice already winning the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and the International Hurdle at Cheltenham (beating Grandouet by 2L).
Zarkandar's other notable success came in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, winning with an OR of 151 and defying a ten month absence. It should be noted that this is the same race in which Darlan OR146 was moving ominously well before crashing out 3 from home. Zarkandar's success showcased his ability to run well fresh (as at Wincanton) regardless of any reported problems during his time off (his trainer suggested he coughed at some point after the race). Viewed as a cluster of valuable races that he has won there can be no doubting the impressive, talented and resilient characteristics on display. The Betfair Hurdle win prompted a Champion Hurdle attempt in which he was tactically outpaced before staying on gallantly to finish fifth.
This season Zarkandar will likely be coming into the race on the back of three runs as opposed to last year's one so improvement with racing has to be factored in to his overall profile. Having finished fifth the season before and having already won two of the key 2m hurdle races before the turn of the year then Zarkandar has a clear chance of improving on his placing this coming March. There is however a gathering amount of evidence to suggest that over two miles in elite G1 company good ground may hinder his win chance considerably.
The Betfair Hurdle was run at a slow pace early, pointed to markedly on the RUK commentary. Zarkandar was unable to track the quickening mid-race pace comfortably, being niggled and ridden at that point. Darlan himself also had to be nudged to make progress but his advance through the field was much easier on the eye than Zarkandar's who in the final outcome had to be shaken up and ridden continuously to get to the lead at which point there was no other winner and he won comfortably.
In the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton he gave Supreme Novices fifth Prospect Wells 17lbs and won narrowly. He travelled notably well throughout the contest in which he and Prospect Wells were head to head for much of the way, Prospect Wells shaken up and ridden, Zarkandar much more comfortable. The concession of such weight is perhaps worthy of caution, however: Prospect Wells was then beaten 16L in tenth place in a 2m handicap off 146 before being stepped markedly up in trip to 25f on heavy ground where he was beaten 57L. We can therefore question what Zarkandar achieved by travelling all over this rival 2f out at Wincanton over 2m, but winning after being ridden by only a quarter of a length.
In the International Hurdle Zarkandar received albs from his two main rivals and met them with the Wincanton win under his belt as opposed to his two rivals arriving for their first race of the season. All would have been inconvenienced in some way by the deep ground. Zarkandar was asked to make the race a stamina test and he led from the start. However Rock On Ruby travelled much the better as Zarkandar came off the bridle two out having to be ridden to maintain his position before his enviable stamina qualities and attitude came to the fore to seal the race after the last. This run indicated a similarity to something that had happened already in the Champion Hurdle: Zarkandar was unable to go with the pace at elite level over 2m on goodish ground. He has in short been at his very best at the end of his races, suggesting he will be suited by further in time at the top level.
On good or natural good to soft ground a high degree of caution is advisable until we learn more about Zarkandar's ability to travel into a race under such conditions in March. The evidence of his runs to date highlight a determined and mentally strong horse who is much more likely to have his strengths revealed if the Champion Hurdle were to be run on genuinely soft ground, under which conditions his chance could be marked up appreciably.
Grandouet
The 2011 International Hurdle winner and runner-up in that event in 2012. This is his third season over hurdles. He has won 5 of his 11 starts over hurdles since arriving from France on good and good to soft ground. It is worth noting that Grandouet has yet to win in a double-figure field, although the only significant race in this respect was the Triumph Hurdle run on the New Course two years ago, where he finished 3rd to Zarkandar.
Grandouet is another horse from the Henderson stable to have close ties with Zarkandar, having fallen when travelling well at Aintree and chasing that rival home in this season's running of the International Hurdle. There is an element of supposition regarding Grandouet's overall profile due in part to him being forced to miss both the Kingwell Hurdle and the Champion Hurdle last season. However his beating of Overturn by 4L (in receipt of 4lbs) in the 2011 International Hurdle - his best run to date - indicates that in last season's Champion Hurdle he would have finished in the front three all things being equal.
On all known evidence Grandouet has a number of strong qualities. One of these relates to the manner of his victories: he is yet to win by less than 4L meaning he has completely outclassed his rivals in those races. Four of those are to be expected but, again, it is his dismissal of the eventual 2012 Champion Hurdle runner-up on his final outing of last season that prompts talk of him being a potential Champion Hurdle winner based on the form of last season's renewal.
Grandouet also possesses a highly distinctive run style which accounts for his wide margin successes against inferior opposition - on good or good to soft ground he is exceptionally fast. As well as the bare form of his win over Overturn it may be worthwhile factoring into calculations the ease with which Grandouet travelled through the race. Approaching the last hurdle Barry Geraghty had effectively run out of opponents to cover his mount up behind in the process of showing exceptional tactical pace. The key aspect of this is that the Champion Hurdle is run on the 'easier' Old Course which favours those horses with tactical acceleration and pace able to advance into gaps and steer around rivals for best positions.
Grandouet requires another run to prove his physical soundness in the lead-up to the festival. His electric speed and potentially elite level tactical pace may prove decisive on good or good to soft ground but soft or heavy ground would require a strong revision of his qualities under such conditions, where more stamina-laden horses would benefit.
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