I remember backing Robinson Collonges in this a couple of years ago. He had looked all set to hammer Wishful Thinking in the Rising Stars at Wincanton but fell instead. Dotted up in a racecourse gallop afterwards to show well-being so the money went down. But he was a 5yo. He was traveling comfortably enough under Walsh but he hammered 3 out and that was it: taken out of his comfort zone he eased home 9th beaten 45 lengths. Tough ask for one so young. His form figures since that day perhaps reveal how hard a race he actually had overall: PP305P0.
Unioniste should be a million. Maybe his 2 - two - chase starts in this country have him prepared for the grueling mental and physical demands these types of handicaps place on very young horses. PN, you would think, knows otherwise and the Novices Chase entry seems far more sensible for the baby horse.
Walkon is interesting for a number of reasons, although he too I plain can't have. Quantitativeeasing was second in a rip-roaring (handicap-level-wise) renewal of the Paddy Power and came to this race and won a thriller of a top-class renewal (all-round). I'd suggest Walkon has neither the steeply progressive aspect nor the proven class in the bank to be effective as a bet option. Error? He did beat the uninspiring Zaynar at Exeter AND Notus De La Tour who was 3rd. NDLT was giving away 8lbs that day as a 5yo, and he was building slowly towards being a festival plot horse (I'd suggest). Now it's a 12lbs swing in NDLT's favour with Walkon exposed a) by being beaten 50L in 3 top class races before puling up in a Scottish National and b) not winning fresh with cut off 143 (now 5lbs higher).
Heavy rainfall would aid his chance however.
For me the race revolves around the Pipe stable and NDLT. Originally ear-marked as being well-forward and second up in the RPTV stable stars tour, the amount of concrete news on him has been meagre. Suggestions of slight hold-ups in training aside it seems a simpler case that Grand Crus was their Paddy Power horse and NDLT their December one. He went close to winning a G1 in soft ground before being sent off 5/2 for the Irish Arkle that Flemenstar took apart. NDLT led early and remained prominent for a long way until the winner's outrageous ability took over. They were perhaps finding out in part just how good their horse was but at the same time gaining a low-ish handicap mark and he duly turned up for the Byrne Group Plate as an 8/1 shot jumping three fences sweetly before lacking the appropriate landing gear on descent.
NDLT had some high-level handicap hurdle form also and everything appears in place after a summer of further maturation for a huge run off a very feasible handicap mark in a weak renewal. Cristal Bonus could be the danger despite a stiff OR. Over to the Pipes!
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