Can the Hennessy bear Fruit @ 33/1?

1 2541-1 Tidal Bay28 11 11-12 Paul Nicholls52 R Walsh 166
Extraordinary horse. Has won two prestigious chases (Arkle, Whitbread) in the year when, respectively, they were probably the worst renewals of the race ever. 16f and 30f shows the range of his ability and with hurdles wins in there too there's probably not a lot he can't do when the race is weak enough. This is a borderline poor Hennessy. Would have been fascinating to see him in here off his pre-Sandown mark of 154 but rising 12 off 166 requires JK Rowland to step in.
2 2887-1 Roberto Goldback28 10 11-8 Nicky Henderson50 162
Simon Munir listened to Barry Gerraghty and Nicky Henderson did the rest. He's absolutely lagged up in a 56k Ascot chase and again you wonder what that rejuvination could have done here off 150. It's rare that the Hennessy is won by a 'double-upper' - that is winning on reappearance and then taking this down too a) for handicapping reasons and b) the physical and mental demands the Hennessy requires, no doubt the reason Welsh National runners who run here may as well not bother.
3 1321- Bobs Worth262 7 11-6 Nicky Henderson50 160
Very few miles clocked up in a seamless ascent through the ranks beating the future Champion Hurdle winner en route to an AB win and returning after breathing issues and/or some lacklustre jumping displays to take the RSA from First Lieutenant. Yet to race on officially soft ground and whilst his size brings about worries on the likely ground his robust mental attitude will never see him down tools. Not a bruising tank like Denman and highly likely to fall short of Denman's class but then Bobs Worth isn't top weight either. Perhaps more importantly it just may be inconceivable that Henderson of all trainers would bottom a true HQ horse first time up in a Hennessy bog, so readily passed over.
4 223-42 First Lieutenant28 7 11-5 M F Morris60 159
Beat Rock on Ruby at the festival and returned after a surprisingly mixed and robust campaign to finish second to Bobs Worth in the RSA. His trainer has always maintained the need for good ground yet has run him several times, many of them unnecessarily (it would seem), on deeper ground. The question FL has to answer is does he have the tools to find a way to win any race whether he runs here or not, but here he will be 362 days without a win after 6 straight defeats. His last run would appear to give him every chance as it was a close 2nd in a G1 on soft ground over 3m yet small-field affairs are a world apart from the pace from the start of a Hennessy. In his defense he has big-field form as a novice hurdler.
7 110-3 Hold On Julio42 9 10-8 Alan King71 148
A rapid riser which always leaves cause for concern. The races he won impressively last season were weak affairs of little consequence and he was duly caught out for experience and the rest at the festival. His reappearance run was however some of the best form on offer in this race and despite a further rise in the weights he can now be pegged as being capable of being involved in the finish of a high quality race off 148. Ground is a bit of a guess but he is all stamina and a softer surface will play to that. The biggest concern in terms of being the likeliest winner arise from the impact his sometimes wayward leaps can have on his rhythm, prominence and place in the race. At HQ his momentum was just checked now and then and it was on the flat that he was making up the ground, that can be exacting. Nonetheless he managed to chase the tail of Balthazar King, a tool and rhythm king, so Julio could well go off favourite and win.
8 18511- Lion Na Bearnai236 10 10-8 Thomas Gibney 148
Pass, mark, profile, class.
9 P09-L0 Carruthers14 9 10-7 Mark Bradstock67 147
Everything dropped perfectly last season for the race of his life: ground, race strength, hcap mark. Not that he wasn't perfectly entitled to take one down in terms of class, he was, and many knew it, despite a potholed profile. His form figures since that great day last year tell it all, however.
11 55/4-1 The Package21 9 10-7 David Pipe47 147
Finally boosted his strike-rate over fences with a flawless win in the Badger Ales but as with Roberto Goldback he was targeted at that race not this one making this contest an even more brutal examination of his residual ability off only a 21 day break.
12 1P11-8 Teaforthree14 8 10-6 Rebecca Curtis20
A surprising entry in many respects as Hennessy runners have a truly shocking record in the Welsh National which is said to be this horse's main target. Doesn't appear particularly well handicapped and despite having a staying record weakened alarmingly first time out this season.
13 1325-0 Fruity O´Rooney42 9 10-5 Gary Moore57 145
Along with Hold On Julio he offers some of the best handicap form in the race. Arguably could have won the Skybet Chase at Doncaster (off 140) but for the saddle slipping and his performance from the front around Cheltenham in the Festival Chase was outstanding, bested only by the very well handicapped Alfie Sherrin. He again gave everything before tiring into 5th in the Scottish National. He handles soft and heavy ground - he got into a few wars on such ground at the beginning of 2011 but they seemed to have made him stronger. Hurdles spin preparation is standard for the yard and his huge appeal lies in his mental robustness, ground ability and competitive handicap mark. If he's accurate and finds his own rhythm those in behind will have a race on to get to and pass him. Very interesting runner.
14 24U01- Saint Are231 6 10-5 Tim Vaughan67 145
Not unreasonable to suggest his sole claim to running in this race is his sign-off win after an indifferent campaign last season. May handle soft despite rarely running on it but that Aintree chase win was a searingly poor affair and scraping home from a "reluctant" rival did little to suggest he's of this standard, physical improvement over the summer notwithstanding.
15 2511-2 Duke Of Lucca28 7 10-4 Philip Hobbs40 144
Could be strongly progressive this season but the toughness of this race along with soft ground is a little off-putting. Would have much stronger claims on good ground.
16 45PP-P Diamond Harry21 9 10-3 Nick Williams33 143
Yes or no but simply a no here as the ground will rip apart any physical weaknesses.
17 PP-522 Magnanimity16 8 10-3 D T Hughes69 143
Another surprising runner. A torrid first season out of novice company where he was never right he has showed some signs of life this season. However, the RSA in which he was 1L 4th was a terrible renewal and he has ultimately shown few signs he is ready to win a race let alone one of this brutal nature.
18 112P-P Harry The Viking14 7 10-2 Paul Nicholls52 Daryl Jacob 142
Passed over by Ruby after a poor reappearance.
19 211P-4 Ikorodu Road30 9 10-1 Matt Sheppard 141
Pass.
20 21U-4F Frisco Depot28 8 10-1 Charlie Longsdon64 Mr S Waley-Cohen5 141
One of the few runners to offer unexposed soft ground 3m chase form in the race. Money arrived strong and late for him at Ascot and has come again here. A big worry would be that he was keen at Ascot and could have fallen before he actually did and were he to be keen again then his race could be done with before 3 out.
21 1/21B- Soll262 7 9-13 Jo Hughes 139
Pass.
22 1235-3 Alfie Spinner28 7 9-12 Nick Williams33 138
Gets in at the bottom here because he has managed only 1 win from 7 starts over fences. Likely to handle the ground but not the class of this contest.

Ante-Post Selections are both intended runners: Fruity O'Rooney e/w 33/1 & Hold On Julio 7/1