Few with chances, most with none....
A strange quirk in the build-up to the 2011 renewal was that the eventual winner was not even mentioned in the RPTV analysis of the race. Not meant as criticism in any way, as Mr Watts said they have very limited time and can’t cover everything: it just goes to show that sometimes the obvious can slip by all too easily. Great Endeavour was trained by the race’s strongest stable, had winning festival form and was ideally handicapped. An irrelevant flashback? Well the same stable have the likeliest winner this year also: it matters to many that he’s now only 2/1 but in terms of the race itself that denominator is irrelevant. Grand Crus’s profile and quirks are detailed below - staring at a very weak Paddy Power field I’m happy to revise the preliminary conclusion. Very few doubts or concerns materialise for Saturday; the King George will be another bridge later on.
It would have been fascinating to watch a stablemates battle as Notus De La Tour would have received a major chunk of weight, but Pipe, hardly averse to running multiple entries in big races, has other plans. The quirk of this race lies in the official ratings. Alarm bells should ring for those wanting to challenge the 150+ brigade because there is no progressive, talented horse with a competitive OR of 146, 147, 148 OR 149. Where are they? The two that reside on 145 have pretty much shown their rather limited hands already, to boot. (This general point was made, subsequently, by Ruby Walsh on Friday)
Some perspective of the race can be gleaned via Hunt Ball. A fine narrative of a horse continually responding to racing and winning, without doubt, but in terms of racing structure, core achievement and future progression it goes 3x1k, 1x3k, 3x7k and then what was probably the worst festival handicap chase ever, the form of which would be more akin to the 1-7k events in which his ascent began. He did win it well and signed off with a fine third in the G1 Betfair Bowl at Aintree. I’ve talked elsewhere of the great - often immense - difficulty of picking up such a season in the same kind of form after a break. Wishful Thinking in this race last year springs readily to mind. With the King George declared as the somewhat ambitious first half season target, a watching brief is strongly advisable.
What not to be is afraid. Far too often a defensive posturing surrounds strong predictions concerning favourites at a short price. The price merely reflects financial reward amounts for being right, the thing to worry about is the being right, the analysis. Flexibility outlasts a stubborn prediction; wiggle room is always essential. Here, as with the RSA, the opposition is or has already faded away, but in the RSA the horse suffered from a cotton wool preparation and consequently scoped badly post-race. Now, he should be at the peak of his physical powers, which he will need to be especially if held-up in a big field handicap. Long Run laboured first time out - unprepared - as Little Josh powered on up front but Grand Crus is in many ways antithetical to the bruising, often clumsy, stamina-laden King George and Gold Cup stalwart. Pipe declined the Betfair Chase for the very favourable first up conditions to be encountered at HQ.
If Hunt Ball’s performance is none too predictable then he is joined on that front by Al Ferof. Dismantled in the Arkle, the future Gold Cup horse was trying 2m against a monster and it told spectacularly. He had been overrated in any case and it is not unreasonable to conclude that following his facile chase debut he started down a regressive line. Whether a breathing problem emerged I’m not sure but legging it after Grand Crus and co in a big-field handicap doesn’t seem an entirely beneficial or appealing return to work. Despite a multitude of questions to answer, he’s third favourite - a further indication of the easing task being set the favourite. Walkon, too, was regressive last season.
Likeliest winner: Grand Crus - AMENDED, only if not setting off stone cold last! #Rhythm
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