Sunday 28 April 2013

2013 Champion Hurdle: Review

A good if not particularly strong renewal won decisively at the line by Hurricane Fly, beating Rock On Ruby 2.5L (17f G/S).

A stirring achievement showcasing resilience, heart, class and desire as Hurricane Fly became the first horse since Comedy Of Errors to regain a Champion Hurdle title. A subdued performance last year saw him 5.5L behind Rock On Ruby but that was turned around despite looking less than comfortable along the far side of the course. Hurricane Fly's class is evident from his race record but it is his durability that is perhaps his most defining and enduring characteristic, resisting a prominent series of minor training niggles throughout his career to cement his place in two mile hurdling history at the age of nine.

Perhaps because of his impressive race record Hurricane Fly is often mis-diagnosed as a strong travelling two miler with a lethal turn of foot. Yet these oft-cited characteristics have been evident barely at all at the Cheltenham Festival over the last three years. Quite clearly his elite level attributes are of a different kind. The confusion comes from the manner of his victories in Ireland (particularly early on in his novice season) where he outclasses opponents to such an extent that he appears visually to be 'cruising' and therefore 'quickening' when moving to the front but closer inspection reveals a different kind of star and one no less superior because of it. Interestingly his first start in Graded company after arriving from France denoted the style of his runs many years later at Cheltenham: "Chased leaders, 4th halfway, closer in 3rd 2 out, challenged travelling well before last where narrowly led, ridden and strongly pressed run-in, kept on well under pressure" to win by a neck. His next two starts have defined him ever since: they are the only two races where he earns the analytical comment 'quickened' from the Racing Post in-running comments. In those two races he annihilates novice opposition yet following that 2008/9 season the comment disappears completely. His next five starts are effectively a match against Solwhit, losing the first and winning the next four cemented by Champion Hurdle glory. The physical dynamics of those races have rarely been built into the profile of the horse but the most obvious points of note have in any case been laid bare by the subsequent performances of, and race distances attempted by, the vanquished.

Go Native beaten by 10L, then Kempes by 7L. No doubt about the extremely high level of residual class on display but analytically Go Native 'folded' somewhat with the physical problem displayed two starts previously (later in the season he won the Supreme giving rise to the oft-quoted "he beat a Supreme winner ten lengths") and Kempes went on to be a three mile chaser, winning an Irish Hennessy over that distance on heavy ground. The infamous series of Solwhit showdowns are given their stamp by that horse dominating the three mile Championship events in the absence of Big Buck's. Solwhit had always been fully effective at 20f, beating the talented Neptune winner Fiveforthree in the Aintree Hurdle early in his career and he made Hurricane Fly race all the way to the line each time after his victory over him with the end result not always looking certain. Those staying battles over 16f and once over 20f prepared Hurricane Fly well for his Champion Hurdle glory where he again faced horses more effective over 20f+ than two miles. Peddler's Cross, Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars would all end up in a World Hurdle over three miles and even Menorah, in fifth, would attempt that distance over fences. There was no turn of foot from Hurricane Fly, his qualities were of a different kind. Most distinctively his high level of residual class allows him to gallop for a long time at an elite level pace. This is not a unique feature in a racehorse: Most notably Oscar Whisky also has this distinctive feature but Hurricane Fly is innately better than that animal (although it is perhaps surprising they never met in the Aintree Hurdle). With such searing speed when racing behind the bridle it is no surprise that there is little change in speed available once push comes to shove at the end of a race. In elite, top class contests both Hurricane Fly and Oscar Whisky have won races because they were the best horse in the race but they couldn't win by much because they couldn't accelerate once their sustained high-class gallop was no longer possible: they are not capable of a travel and quicken style (very few horses are) but they cruise and stay on to maintain an advantage as rivals run at them from behind the bridle. Analytically it is therefore unfortunate that Hurricane Fly has not been tested by an out and out two mile hurdler. He was well beaten by Rock On Ruby in the Champion Hurdle but unfortunately Hurricane Fly was not at his physical best after a continually interrupted season and in the re-match Rock On Ruby was given a slightly strange bullet-from-a-gun ride that saw him fighting his own lactic acid as early as when rounding the home bend, whereas the season prior he was exploding with forward momentum at the same point. The only other high class two mile speedster, Grandouet, fell when travelling easily at a fast pace, something Hurricane Fly was struggling to do at that stage.

Often-times racing is unsatisfactory and this is a case in point. Analysing the physicality of Hurricane Fly's running explains both what his own connections' view as slightly underwhelming winning efforts at the Cheltenham Festival (the style and verve of his wins have lacked the wow factor of Istabraq, for example) and why he hasn't beaten horses he 'should' essentially outclass  by very far,  explaining also why he is top-class without being imperious in a way Kauto Star or Big Buck's were. It is hard to fault connections for keeping him to easy contests in heavy ground when in Ireland - hardly any horses in training can match his residual class in deep ground over 2m - but it is surprising for a horse with such obvious stamina potential that he hasn't been allowed to contest something like the Aintree Hurdle (which Istabraq contested twice). His trainer has often talked of running in the French Champion Hurdle of around three miles which would suit his running style very well; in 2014 he will in all likelihood feature in a race against a number of high class two milers: it would have been nice to see that race when at the peak of his powers.

Rock on Ruby, in second, finished very close-up for a horse that had been asked to run a most uneven race in elite terms, staying on stoutly but in vain once his race was run. It appears that connections had for some reason become concerned about his ability to travel effectively through a championship race, most likely owing to the way in which Darlan was running all over him approaching the last hurdle at Doncaster. Darlan would have been another in the out-and-out two miler category had he survived the race: the way in which he destroyed the opposition at Kempton, the way he moved at Doncaster and the highest regard in which his stable held him had earmarked him as a potential superstar in the making. The application of blinkers to Rock On Ruby foretold what he was asked to do in the race itself but the question must still reside with his connections as to what race he could have run with a more even distribution of his energy reserves.

Countrywide Flame confirmed himself to be tough, classy and admirable. He lacks residual class at elite two mile level.

Grandouet was 'grabbing' at a couple of his hurdles including the one he fell at and a move to fences may yield the full potential of his physical growth from five to six. He would remain a ready-made Champion Hurdle contender should the need arise.

Zarkandar was again exposed at elite two mile pace on decent ground. He was finally given a more realistic assignment at Aintree, which he won.

Historic: Hurricane Fly regains the Champion Hurdle Crown

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