* Assumed ground is g/s
{dealing with the three leading contenders only}
Firstly Our Conor:
Unbeaten in three. Seemingly transformed by a switch to hurdles. Prior to the new year he won easily at 8/13 and then less easily in a G3 at 8/11. The runner-up in that contest has subsequently won a G2 in workmanlike fashion.
His claims essentially rest on the form and visual impression of one run, which is not unusual for a Triumph contender. The G1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle is Ireland's best trial for a festival race they almost never win - just one winner this century (trained by Willie Mullins). Our Conor brushed aside two well-regarded Willie Mullins trained rivals to record an emphatic win in stylish fashion, travelling well round the bend into the straight to coast alongside his main rival (Diakali) and bound away from him over the last to break the line a comfortable 5L clear.
This propelled him to the head of the Triumph market with the "most impressive" tag-line and the suggestion that a repeat of that performance would see him win at the festival. But would it? Delving a little deeper he becomes a little less appealing.
Form: He is the best of the Irish without doubt but that is rarely enough as highlighted above. The winner of the trial race he won has finished 2868079022 suggesting if they're good enough they'll win but that they almost never are. A lot was made before the race of the Mullins duo but Diakali had beaten nothing by wide margins in heavy ground at odds on and it is very difficult to know what level he is genuinely at. Blood Cotil ran a lifeless race turning in having previously beaten Stockton Wing about the same distance as had the winner. Corresponding to the visual impression left by Our Conor is also the knowledge that he has had a 'proper race' in soft ground just four weeks before the festival and recovery has to be taken on trust.
Ground: Having raced almost exclusively on soft and heavy ground in his career a change of ground may not bring about a lot of improvement as an isolated variable. The trainer's keenness to express a preference for good ground is likely to do with the turn of foot he has shown to settle his races which would be seen to best advantage on better ground and avoid the prospect of a staying war. This raises the question of whether a strong travelling, speedy type is really the right kind of runner for a Triumph on the stiffer new course where previous winners have generally been strong stayers.
Profile: Generally a rating above 80 if raced on the flat is desirable and Our Conor is fine on that score with 84. However, the Triumph is a staying test for a 4yo and most winners have therefore raced over 12f during their flat career. Winning form is irrelevant as it is the impression that they have the stamina to require middle distances that suits their transferral to a Triumph test (Zarkandar 12-15f; Zaynar 11-14f; Celestial Halo 10-15f…). Our Conor did not get beyond 9f (after a 19L defeat over 10f on debut) and his defeats over 8f and 9f on deep ground did not have the imprint of stamina on them.
So a pass, unless they crawl early which is unlikely.
Rolling Star does have the middle distance flat profile with form at 11-13f. Like the stable's previous winner Soldatino (won Adonis only start), Rolling Star has won a hurdles race over 18f in France. The form of his only run is more solid and interlocked with Irish Saint whom he beat very snugly with speed and stamina winning the Adonis. Henderson won the race in '09 & '10 and the (joint)owner Michael Buckley generally buys well. If they are satisfied with just the one run it is probably a hint worth noting.
In contrast to Rolling Star's stealthy build-up, FAR WEST has taken the season by the scruff of the neck and won't let go, winning four times on soft and heavy ground. He raced once in France finishing third in a valuable 15f 3yo hurdle. Perhaps unusually for a Triumph contender he has already done everything you would want in a leading contender and some things you perhaps wouldn't, but regardless has won every time, impressively.
On debut Handazan's reputation saw that one go off evens favourite but he was dismantled by 12L in straightforward fashion. On his second start, as with his first, Far West was prominent and alternated the lead. Vasco Du Ronceray was keen early (as he would be later in the Adonis) but travelled well and Far West was first of the bridle as the duo pulled clear. Here Far West showed he can race strongly behind the bridle as he never lost momentum and urged on he galloped away strongly up the hill to win by 7L. It is no doubt the case that VDR enjoyed the conditions of the Adonis (Good ground, flat track) much more than here (Soft ground, stiff finish) and that physically he would have been much more prepared then than here, in November, against a street-wise rival. Yet also that should not detract from the qualities Far West displayed, nor the fact that both horse were running in a recognised early season Triumph Hurdle trial.
Of some interest is that the next recognised trial for the race came at the showcase Cheltenham Open meeting in December, where only three runners turned up, only two of them with a chance and they had already met. This time Far West's dominance over Handazan increased to 19L but whereas the form is irrelevant the style of it was not. Whether feeling the effects of his season, his race four weeks ago or the much deeper ground, Far West seemed to be a bit 'stuck' in the mud as he galloped behind Handazan for most of the way. He din't look comfortable at any rate and going towards the top of the hill he was being niggled and shaken up a bit. However after free-wheeling down the hill and racing he snapped back on the bridle to move effortlessly clear without letting up. From his race against VDR and here, it suggests that Far West relishes the racing part of racing and moves best when asked to increase his speed and application.
His prep run came in a four runner affair at Ascot receiving 9lbs from River Maigue. Given the above characteristics and the fact that this race stopped to a walk at one point after the leader veered off course, a win of any kind would be deemed unlikely despite the weight advantage. It was interesting therefore to see Far West resume the gallop in front moving fluently (soft ground) and after turning into the straight begin to sprint all the way to the line with River Maigue unable to get within a couple of lengths of him. It was another indication that he relishes being asked to 'race proper' and that he doesn't lack for 'speed' despite his evident ability to race behind the bridle with stamina. The one to beat.
Selection: FAR WEST e/w.
No comments:
Post a Comment