2013 Champion Hurdle

During the build-up to the 2012 Champion Hurdle I was at pains to stress that Grandouet was capable of running to a rating of 170+ and therefore beating Hurricane Fly. A physical problem prior to the Kingwell not only denied the opportunity to assess that conclusion it led me to an incorrect assessment of the runners that did line-up. The perils of reassessment. Rock On Ruby, unable to beat a clearly declining Binocular when last seen in December, delivered a run stamped with prominence, power, rhythm and class; I was there and watching, he won easily. In winning he acquired a rating of 170.

Both his win and subsequent transferral into the full care of new trainer Harry Fry leave the Champion 2m hurdle division in a small state of disarray. It is not uncommon for certain national hunt divisions to become unnaturally weak either in reality or potential. This weakness can materialise as a result of the emergence of a superstar performer in isolation, a simple lack of exceptional talent, or both.

That Rock on Ruby is not currently favourite despite being reigning champion and beating Hurricane Fly in the process is a measure of the exceptional nature of Hurricane Fly’s 2010/11 season that culminated in his thrilling win over Peddler’s Cross. It is quite some measure of Hurricane Fly’s impact that season that he both retains favouritism despite his defeat in March and that for that defeat expectation was still very high and his starting price correspondingly low despite coming off a far from ideal preparation. Put simply, Hurricane Fly was breathtaking for all of his winning season. Since then, the star has dimmed, despite winning two of his three starts last term. He will be a 9yo in March with the same imponderables as last season concerning his physical well-being. His price is understandable but he represents a declining force and as such he is not a project of much interest for the forthcoming season.

Rock on Ruby was beaten on his next start at Aintree over 20f as Oscar Whisky, relatively fresh from his somewhat predictable no-show in the World Hurdle, excelled at the trip and track he was made for. Rock on Ruby is a little hard to gauge: it’s hard to think of him as a ‘great’, as a repeat winner. He beat the steely Overturn as Binocular and Hurricane Fly declined in behind, leaving the overall shape of the race a little questionable. That in itself matters less than the challenge he will face, all being well, for a second time in March. Returning in the same health, form and physical condition is a challenge all too many succumb to but it is also the likelihood of more potent opposition that dampens enthusiasm about our current champion. If that opposition fails to materialise fully, his powers will need reassessment. One conclusion I cannot agree with is that Rock On Ruby was allowed to ‘get away’ from Binocular and Hurricane Fly who sat too far back and were given too much to do. That may soothe backers of those horses but they simply weren’t good enough to give chase; they never travelled as well as they did in their pomp because they couldn’t call on the same physical powers and ability.

On a steep upward spiral, Grandouet oozed Champion class before his injury. The appetite to back him is revived on viewing either of his last three runs: obviously the most recent stands out, cantering all over the eventual Champion Hurdle second in the International before sweeping past him and forging clear after the last. Hurricane Fly missed Champion Hurdles due to injury and so now has Grandouet. He will be six in March, having grown and filled out further a frame that still had more to come before his injury. The enforced time off could be the making of him: as things stand he has the physical attributes and form in the book to be the biggest player of all in March and is trained by the man who can.

All of which rightly overshadows his stablemate Spirit Son. Prolonged absence, as in his case, is never appealing. As such we know very little about him and he awaits assessment once he makes the track once again.

All eyes will be on the young guns from the Supreme Novices, too. Cinders and Ashes is a sharp technician over a hurdle but even he felt the pressure in March as he tangled with two flights, one of them the last (like three of the front four) before surging on giving Darlan too much distance to overhaul. Darlan deserves additional credit for his run and subsequent win at Aintree, coming as they did following a spectacularly crashing fall in the Betfair Hurdle when moving ominously well in the latter stages. It will be interesting to see how both handle the step up into open company.