My
initial reaction when Simonsig was put in at 4/1 for the Arkle was a mixture of
surprise and mild amusement. It’s a price that takes some getting used to and
then some work to place in context. On surveying the Arkle landscape more closely,
however, 4/1 was fair. Plenty of people agreed, he’s now best price 100/30.
The
price is largely immaterial though. I remember very well being amused – prices
clearly amuse me a fair bit – by the reaction to Big Buck’s’ price of 7/2 for
the World Hurdle of 2011 some eight months before the race. It was a very nice
gift. William Hill offered a similar gift for the 2012 renewal, effectively
giving Big Buck’s away at 3/1 under the tagline of being unbeaten for the
season. What tends to happen when such prices surface is betting people on
social media sites start to pick apart the technicalities of the price: often,
this exercise lacks reference to the race in the round. Some even start to cast
around with mathematical formula regarding the likelihood of so and so and the
risks of this or that. Such an approach is by and large a waste of time. To
talk of the greatest staying hurdler ever, to remain briefly with Big Buck’s,
is to talk of a racehorse with no weaknesses whatsoever. As such unless there
is an opponent in the ranks with similar characteristics or the potential to
develop them the prices are irrelevant as a discussion point (like most prices,
I would contend) and are only of substantial interest as a subjective aspect of
betting for a nominal reward. The price is the reward for correct analysis, not
a clearly definable aspect of an abstract, metaphysical equation. (There will
be an article at some stage on the ‘value myth’.) Perhaps the greatest wild goose
chase ever to wreak havoc in people’s minds stems from the formulation of a
question that has no definitive answer, that cannot be answered, and should
therefore never have been posed in the first place: it is most commonly found
in the format of “Is (price) value?” for whatever horse. Posed that way the
question offers two possible answers, neither of which have any bearing on the
actual race outcome, which strikes me as completely pointless. The aim is to
find the likeliest winner of the race in question and only then assess whether
the nominal reward figure, displayed as potential via the price on offer,
appeals.
Last
year’s Arkle, as it would happen, was a perfect illustration of the above.
Sprinter Sacre won the race easily at 8/11 having first been offered at 10/1.
In the very initial phases, it seemed he would have two hugely talented chasing
rivals: the Supreme Novices winner and a Champion Hurdle runner up. Both those
rivals unravelled fairly quickly and correspondingly Sprinter Sacre’s price
fell in direct correlation to his ascent to superstar novice status not only
with his performances but the expectation that accompanied them. At every turn,
Sprinter Sacre’s price was questioned, examined, critiqued and occasionally
derided. The value myth shone bright: precisely because he was by far the
likeliest winner as every month passed, whether or not he was ‘value’ was
completely irrelevant. Focus on the physical characteristics and raw talent
needed to win the race meant his opponents were leagues below him (one even
failed to make the race): to what extent were backers prepared to invest for
the nominal reward was the only pertinent issue derived from analysis of the
runners and the demands of the race. The prices were merely over generous for
far too long, regarding the eventual winner at least.
Which
leads us to Simonsig. The easiest thing to do is start with the potential level
of opposition he is likely to face in March at this stage. On so doing it
becomes clearer to see that 4/1 may well have been a good/fair price. The
second favourite in the market is Overturn, a lionheart who will be a nine year
old in March having raced 37 times before seeing a fence. Peddler’s Cross was
not an Arkle horse and neither, one fears, is Overturn. Oscars Well made a
strong impression in the Neptune novices hurdle because he ran with the choke
out and clattered the last: in open company he registered no wins to rack up
seven consecutive defeats leaving his only victories recorded on soft or heavy
ground. Captain Conan, a huge police horse, did well to win on debut but looks
to lack any kind of raw travelling speed that is essential in an Arkle. He’d
need to be an electric fencer to figure but looks likely to be aimed elsewhere
given his stable have the favourite.
The
horse I would have thought most likely to become a true Arkle contender is
Montbazon. Subject of glowing talk from his trainer his strapping yet elegant
build was matched by an ability to cruise through races without being overly
flashy. Unfortunately, he cannot hurdle well. Looking a huge threat in the
Supreme Novices hurdle despite a couple of altercations with his hurdles he was
also a little keen and the exertions all told saw him obliterate the last
obstacle and fade into fourth. It is not only a little surprising that
connections intend keeping him to hurdles where he will face razor-sharp
technicians of the art not least his conquerors from that Tuesday, Darlan and
the winner Cinders and Ashes. That leaves Trifolium as the more interesting
candidate but he has raced almost exclusively on heavy ground despite his
meritorious third placing in the Supreme on good ground and it is open to
question as to whether he will feature heavily in Irish novice chases and thus
the Irish Arke with Cheltenham as an after-thought (see Realt Dubh). That said,
his ownership was recently pointed out to me as a core reason why Cheltenham is
likely to be on his agenda again in March.
Overall
then, there doesn’t appear to be any real depth of challenge. That’s not always
indicative of the end result, as Captain Chris somehow besting Finian’s Rainbow
despite their subsequent campaigns showing the Arkle face-off to be all wrong,
but not on the day that mattered. Simonsig himself (deeper analysis of him not
required yet) has form, reputation, natural ability and the right trainer to go
off odds-on come March. How ‘big’ would 4/1 be then?
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