* Assumed ground is g/s.
The Opener. The Supreme Novices Hurdle is perhaps the hardest race to
resist, signalling as it does the prelude to the feast. Yet for many the
draw towards what is apparently the most obvious leads to famine:
favourites occupy the position of 'best novice' based on nearly a full
season's workings yet the reality that form and ratings are often almost
completely irrelevant in this race can be hard to digest.
Understanding that irrelevance is not particularly difficult but it
doesn't make for particularly appetising discussion and so the usual
protocol is still observed. The best, most impressive looking horse with
the best form has the best chance yet we need only look back to the
past two renewals to understand the workings of the riddle. Pertinent
parts only: Al Ferof fell on his hurdles debut and was then beaten 10L
in the Challow Hurdle. Turning the new year all discussion at that stage
would conclude how inconceivable and unlikely a challenger he was let
alone the winner. A facile low-class win in January and repeated in
February, however, gave him his profile but even then there was no form
and striking visuals to feed on. It was all much more under the radar as
attention was focused primarily on the trio of scintillating talent
that he would eventually defeat. The clues to Al Ferof came late,
therefore, with his trainer later confirming that he "only had him
right" very late on. Cinders and Ashes was also beaten on debut but won
everything else easily. Doing it on heavy ground (in the build-up) in
uncompetitive small-runner affairs sent him in under the radar - what
was there to discuss after all? It is trickery and slight of hand, it is
often concealment and home assessments: the Supreme is about being just
that on the day, but not before, creating the riddle that what goes
before is mostly irrelevant in conventional terms. Just as hugely
talented novices with few starts - some with extremely high-class
ability for future seasons - encourage that overall perception so they
can also prove that races are always flexible and never set in any one
pattern. Interestingly, leaving our historically questionable favourite
aside, three of the next front four in the betting have already revealed
their talent, concealing very little at all.
Jezki is trained by the same stable that produced 13/2 shot Steps
To Freedom for the same festival race off the back of a four month
break. Jezki is 2 from 3 in bumpers and 4 from 4 over hurdles, including
two wins at G1 level in Ireland, the Royal Bond and the Future Novices
Hurdle. In the Royal Bond he beat the Festival Bumper winner Champagne
Fever in a close finish, asserting late on but was perhaps most
impressive visually when beating Waaheb last time out by 6L, travelling
well and surging clear after the last to score decisively. The win over
Champagne Fever is significant because Jezki finished 12L 8th to that
rival in the Festival Bumper at Cheltenham in March but over hurdles was
clearly able to turn that form around. He has therefore clearly
improved for the switch to jumping hurdles. Jezki clearly handles soft
ground well and has raced exclusively this season on that surface, four
times over hurdles and once first time out for his flat race warm up. He
raced on goodish ground for his two bumper wins but was well beaten on
good ground in the Festival Bumper. In that race Champagne Fever set a
strong gallop and maintained it. Jezki travelled ok and moved from
around 12th to around 6th but got taken off the bridle before the bend
and could never make significant progress after before fading from the
2nd rank into 8th. It seems that the stable were not sure about the
ability of their horse. They got him ready very early for this season
(October 10) and with the horse responding well to racing they have
'made hay' as it were winning four on the bounce. As mentioned earlier
however, it has to be a major concern that the stable were even thinking
of resting the horse completely until March after the performance of
Steps To Freedom (14th SP 13/2) in last year's Supreme Novices. That
that plan was then confirmed has to be a huge concern once again.
Another to not take in what has most often proved to be an essential preparation race is Dodging Bullets.
He was fourth in the 2012 Triumph Hurdle and third in the 2012
Christmas Hurdle this season 16f, Heavy). He has won 2 of his 6 starts
over hurdles but neither of those came in his first season over hurdles
where he was beaten three times. He has since won twice on good to soft
ground. He is a flat bred that lost his first seven flat starts, winning
his final two. Dodging Bullets carries an unusual profile in that he
ran in the Triumph Hurdle in his first novice season, which ended
without a victory. He now tries this race. Whilst Dodging Bullets has
clear ability what is less clear is how curved his progression is, if at
all. Still, he has proven himself over track, trip and likely ground
when winning the G2 Sharp Novices Hurdle in November (although caution
is required as the last six winners of that race finished 090040 - Steps
To Freedom the last representative finishing 14th in 2012). On his
final flat start Dodging Bullets gave Hisaabaat 7lbs and beat him half a
length by outstaying him over 10f. Over hurdles seven months later
Hisaabaat (2nd) beat Dodging Bullets (4th) 4L off levels in the Triumph,
outstaying him. Hisaabaat most likely lacks the residual class of
Dodging Bullets and in this respect we can accord the latter a tangible
amount of progression - he came out bouncing to win two and finish third
in a recognised Champion Hurdle trial (whereas Hisaabaat regressed).
In the latter of his two wins (the first was a formality) he beat River
Maigue 1.5L again "staying on gamely" and giving that rival 7lbs. That
was, however, River Maigue's debut over hurdles and that rival has since
showed likeable progression on his next two starts. Nonetheless,
Dodging Bullets does present something of a riddle. He has beaten one of
his main rivals giving him 7lbs; he has finished 4th in a Triumph
hurdle; he has finished third in a G1 Christmas Hurdle on unsuitable
ground; he is officially rated 156; he is housed in one of the
powerhouse stables and is their number one contender for the race. Why,
then, is he not favourite nor even close to it? It is perhaps fair to
assess Dodging Bullets so far as a horse that has had numerous chances
to showcase elite level novice ability but having failed to do so he
becomes to look anchored and a touch exposed in a race where form in the
book matters little, sometimes not at all. The answer to the riddle may
be that Dodging Bullets is extremely game, honest and durable - he
tries like mad - with the ability to finish in the first five. He lacks
a turn of foot but can use his mental strength to stay on with effect
in his races and he will likely require a strong pace throughout (not
always guaranteed) to show his best. Although connections are probably
happy with the physical readiness of their horse it is again concerning
that he has not been sighted in readiness for another very tough
assignment, particularly with a trainer who is unafraid to race his
horses.
One horse that has been running consistently, showcasing his wellbeing and ability in the process, is Melodic Rendezvous.
Winner of the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle (17f, Heavy) he has won 2 of his 3
starts over hurdles, both on heavy ground, with the same deep underfoot
conditions evident for his 7L second to Champagne Fever at Punchestown
last season. He was beaten on his hurdles debut at Exeter by the
cruising Mr Mole (good to soft). That Melodic Rendezvous has yet to race
beyond 17f is perhaps surprising given the pre-season feelings of
connections that two and a half miles would be the horse's optimum at
this stage. This was perhaps reinforced at Exeter where he was beaten by
a slicker, quicker rival. At Exeter he was prominent along the home
stretch just behind the leader and in front of Mr Mole but the latter
cruised past him causing Melodic Rendezvous to switch around his rear as
he couldn't go with him. Stamina and no lack of determination seemed to
be dragging him along and although a jink and a bump from Mr Mole
didn't help his momentum over the last he wasn't going forward in a
hurry. Tactically at Cheltenham on his second start they were in no rush
to be prominent as he was held up the whole way before smoothly making
ground to be ahead of a tightly bunched cluster of horses over the last
where he stayed on powerfully up the hill, chased home by Royal Boy who
he would then crush in the Tolworth. One thing worth noting was over
some hurdles he went up, over and kind of clamped his front end down,
making it a slower process than ideal getting away front the hurdle. The
Tolworth hurdle is usually the preserve of more staying types with the
notable exception in this context being Noland in 2006 (won the
Supreme). More prominent than at Cheltenham, he took a little while to
close up on the leader after that one injected a final kick to the last
flight. He grabbed the ground to move alongside and fractionally ahead
for a while before forging on late to score decisively. We can see that
Melodic Rendezvous is progressing with racing. He has his final
preparation race at Exeter again on deep ground but it was little more
than racecourse sharpness as his rival (Puffin Billy) had a physical
problem. His attitude is admirable and he has given his all to the line
in each of his four races this season, suggesting mental strength. At
times on deep ground he has given the impression at times in these races
of travelling sweetly but on the whole it is worth noting that he has
as yet been unable to really outspeed a rival at any point. It is
unwise, perhaps, to reach to a conclusion about his likely ability to
display pace on better ground and it can be recalled only recently how a
more staying type in Al Ferof benefitted from a pace war in a Supreme;
he likely lacks the residual class of that horse, however.
Un Atout certainly has that concealed profile. Unbeaten in one
bumper and both starts over hurdles, all three races of his contests
have been on heavy ground. There was an eleven month gap between his
sole bumper win (January 2012) and his hurdles debut (December 2012).
Described pre-season as a "lovely big horse" by his trainer Un Atout
presents us with the ultimate under-the-radar profile. Raced only twice,
only on heavy ground and in weak contests he has outclassed his rivals
at times on looks alone: he does indeed have a size about him and it is
perhaps here where we can caution the 'could-be-anything' tag. Raw,
immature, a future staying chaser; he also raps the top of his hurdles
quite often. Granted, his paper profile tilts towards that which so
often underlines the winner of this contest but it is perhaps worth
displaying the patience of his connections to date when assessing his
chance of a toe-to-toe, helter skelter Supreme on better ground at a
stride quicker than so far. Nonetheless he has run this calendar year,
he has been winning effortlessly, he is from the leading Irish stable
and he remains prominent in the market despite multiple entries. A real
Supreme profile.
As has River Maigue. He has won one of his three starts over
hurdles, on heavy ground. He was second to Dodging Bullets (gave 7lbs)
after pulling/being keen and staying on in second having been outpaced
by the winner at a key stage on debut over hurdles. His win came at
Kempton beating the younger New Year's Eve (debut) easily by 7L. He then
went up against a big player in the Triumph Hurdle, Far West, in a
messy, unsatisfactory four runner affair where he was outsprinted trying
to give 9lbs and a start to his talented rival. He travels well in his
races and although he is often keen early on he has displayed the
ability to finish off his races quite strongly. It appears that he ranks
quite highly in the pecking order of novice hurdlers within his
powerful stable. He was perhaps caught out by a much more streetwise and
professional racehorse on his first and third runs and despite having
to race off level weights when meeting Dodging Bullets again it is
possible he can finish in front of that rival if his progression matches
his potential at this early stage of his career. His trainer has stated
that he copes well with a lot of work at home indicating mental as well
as physical strength and with a low-key build-up to the race he looks
set fair to unleash his true potential on the day that matters most.
What may hinder his win chance is the presence in the race of a
potential superstar.
Concealed very well until the Betfair Hurdle MY TENT OR YOURS
produced a quite staggering performance in open handicap company to
shatter the radars and he will now put the ultimate form profile to the
test, more so than his similarly-owned predecessors. Runner-up to The
New One in the 2012 G2 Aintree Bumper, he has won 3 of his 4 starts over
hurdles on good to soft and soft ground. In three bumper and four
hurdles starts he is yet to finish outside the top two places. My Tent
Or Yours' first run over hurdles was notable in that he beat the future
(and easy) G1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin Du Seuil by nearly 2L in
receipt of 5lbs. On his next start he was beaten by stablemate
Chatterbox on heavy ground that his jockey reported he failed to handle.
His third race was so deeply impressive that he was propelled to the
front of the betting for the prestigious Betfair Hurdle, a path trodden
by the similarly owned horses Get Me Out Of Here (Won Betfair, Second in
Supreme) and Darlan (Fell Betfair, Second in Supreme). What stamps My
Tent Or Yours as potentially one of the most exciting novice hurdlers of
the season is the sheer power with which he moves through his races, in
part reminiscent of Sprinter Sacre, particularly over fences. As that
reference indicates, however, this could also be a key weakness when
assessing his chance in a Supreme Novices Hurdle (Sprinter Sacre
finished third in a high class renewal). By not using his energy
reserves efficiently he may 'tank' (jockey's descriptions of his
keenness) to the front but be unable to sustain a run to the line at the
required speed. Against that, he does not throw his head around or
'refuse' to settle which is the biggest concern in a talented horse
(much like Sanctuaire over hurdles). The power displayed in his races
suggests possible progression to G1 elite level races in open company in
the future but the question is can he run an even enough race to ensure
his movement through the gears bears fruit in a Supreme. What his run
in the Betfair Hurdle revealed was nothing other than that which would
have been seen for the first time on the day itself. As a run prior to
the Supreme it demonstrated a number of things: i) a level of ability
(OR 162) that would give him place claims in the Champion Hurdle; ii) a
much different profile to other short-priced Supreme Novices favourites;
iii) a running style even in top handicap company of tremendous power
which distinguishes him from the lighter framed, flashier types that are
more susceptible to the demands of a festival race; and iv) that
whatever his level now he can handle a big-field and should improve on
his Betfair run given a faster pace and better ground. My Tent Or Yours
would have been around second favourite for the Champion Hurdle and
could well be occupy that position for next years renewal of that race.
No other horse in this race comes close to suggesting such potential.
Selections: MY TENT OR YOURS (win) & River Maigue e/w.
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