Raceday Thoughts
* Assumed ground is g/s
Last year saw a stroll in the sunshine for the elite class Simonsig;
this year sees a similar four-horse war to that of 2011 which provided
one of the most thrilling finishes of recent times as First Lieutenant,
Rock On Ruby, So Young and Oscars Well hurtled almost in unison towards
the last hurdle. For First Lieutenant we have Rule The World, a classy
smooth travelling staying chaser in the making with the same
connections; for Rock On Ruby we have The New One, a classy looking
hurdler with speed, style and form in a key trial with a leading
contender in the Albert Bartlett; for So Young we have the likewise
Willie Mullins trained Pont Alexandre, although his profile is
different; and For Oscars Well we have the similarly devastating soft
ground performer Taquin Du Seuil but trained here instead of Ireland.
This truly fascinating and potentially high class mix has a further added dimension in the shape of Puffin Billy.
Winner of the 2012 Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle before he ran at Exeter
he was unbeaten in two bumper and two hurdles starts on good to soft,
soft and heavy ground. He had won his four races prior to Exeter by a
total of 36 lengths (17, 9 / 5, 5) and been visually impressive in each
of them. Said by his trainer to be quite highly strung Puffin Billy has
relished the soft ground he has encountered over hurdles winning both
his contests on the bridle. His run style is stamped by a keen, high
class cruising speed not all that dissimilar to that of The New One. At
Ascot he jumped his final two hurdles really well; prior to that less
so, a mish mash of getting in too close, not being on the right stride
and hitting the top bar. Mental preparedness could be quite important
for this horse and it was extremely unfortunate that he ran as if
punch-drunk at Exeter on his latest start, displaying none of the class
and running power that had stamped his previous displays. Said to be
lame afterwards he may have been carrying an infection or other ailment
which presents a far from satisfactory build-up to one of the hottest
races of the entire season. Puffin Billy is a hugely talented horse and
will be a very interesting high class runner next season but as the 2011
renewal so vividly illustrated potential and flashy characteristics are
simply not enough to carry out a win in this contest and, with the
extended trip also likely to ask new and demanding questions once racing
behind the bridle, he is deferred for the time being. His four main
rivals have all enjoyed, so far as we know, a strong physical and mental
build-up to this race.
Some heady stares may be directed at Taquin Du Seuil following
the running of the Supreme Novices Hurdle on the Tuesday as the
performance of My Tent Or Yours - probably the most exciting novice
hurdler of the season so far - shadows part of Taquin's profile. They
met in November at Ascot over 16f (good to soft) with Taquin giving 5lbs
to his now illustrious rival to be beaten around 2L, making My Tent Or
Yours complete his race fully. Jonjo O'Neill's horse didn't hurdle with
exacting fluency that day but over a trip short of his best against a
potentially top class rival it was a run of note and he has duly hacked
up in the G2 Sandown trial for this race (20f, Heavy) and the G1 Challow
Hurdle later in the same month (21f, Heavy). Physically Taquin Du Seuil
has a pronounced soft ground action and quite a wiry narrow frame.
Classy horses can adapt to better ground but his profile does raise a
few concerns. The Neptune is an elite event requiring speed and stamina
to last out 21f with a stiff finish. It tends to strongly favour NH bred
types given that over the last decade or so only two flat breds have
grasped the prize and they had strong form on the flat (Listed class at
least). A glance at Taquin Du Seuil's history reveals a flat pedigree
lacking in the ability to make an impact in that code. He started the
season early, in October, and as with Jezki in the Supreme Novices
Hurdle there is a feeling that winning prizes in the first half of the
season had more import than preparing slowly for the Festival. He has
been given a break since winning the Challow emphatically but here too
the omens swirl above him with Challow winners struggling to complete
the 'double' via the Neptune despite many still finding the podium at
HQ. In a weaker contest he would have almost certainly retained the
appeal he has visually provided this season but with the strength in
depth on offer in this race his rivals are circling.
Not least among which is the hugely exciting Pont Alexandre.
Given the form and displays of Taquin Du Seuil we should perhaps work
hard to quantify that: So Young and Boston Bob were also bracketed in
that category, going off at short prices and were beaten. In short we
may want to ascertain if this a horse for the all-out demands of the
here and now, or a future prospect of the highest order. He has raced
over hurdles twice, winning the G1 Navan Novice Hurdle over 20f by 13L
on heavy ground on debut and winning the G2 Synergy Security Solutions
Novice Hurdle by 11L also on heavy ground and in atrocious weather. It
is clear that Pont Alexandre is thought to be one of his trainer's best
novices. Running in a G1 on debut illustrates this clearly enough as
does registering a combined win margin of 24L in his two starts but what
characteristics in particular has he displayed to date. Pont Alexandre
handles heavy ground and on both starts he has raced from the front and
made all. On his debut he jumped noticeably right over his hurdles and
this aspect of his jumping reappeared on his next start. This would be a
slight worry in a fast-run race on better ground around Cheltenham but
the conditions there will be markedly different (ground, field-size,
pace) so it is not certain whether he will repeat the same tendency. On
the whole his jumping is good and clever although when asked to race by
his jockey, most notably at the last hurdle on his recent start, he was
very novicey indeed. Given the softness of the ground it may be
significant that Pont Alexandre has been ridden to make all. Many time
novices are given cover, experience of racing amongst horses and so on
but here none of that has been on the mind of connections which may indicate
two things: he is so highly regarded it is not considered necessary and a
clear sight of hurdles and staying out of the way of inferior horses
was more important; and also 20f may be the minimum of his requirements.
Pont Alexandre is therefore quite difficult to assess. He has jumped
right, relished heavy ground and is a future staying chaser - he has the
size and build of one already and his trainer has said clearly enough
that the horse is exciting for his potential over a number of years. Yet
he has run all over G1 and G2 races in Ireland with the minimum of
fuss. Interestingly though we know far more about him than we did about
Fiveforthree from the same stable, who debuted as late as February 13
over 2m on soft ground before winning the Neptune on his second start.
Fiveforthree had a fine turn of foot, however. Mikael D'Haguenet was
given four runs prior to his win in this race; for Pont Alexandre
therefore much will depend not only on his own level of residual class
at this stage but the readiness of his rivals to exploit any gaps in his
hurdling best. Two candidates stand out but it threatens to be
extremely close whichever way the race is run.
Just as respect is afforded to a high class Mullins runner in this race
so it must also be afforded to one trained by Mouse Morris. Rule The World
seeks to avenge the defeat of his half-brother Venalmar at the hands of
the aforementioned Fiveforthree in yet another thrilling climb up the
hill in this race. Winner of the 2013 Slaney Novices Hurdle by 16L on
soft to heavy ground, he has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles this
season on soft and heavy ground. His sole defeat to date came over 3m on
his second start. Perhaps the most impressive aspects of Rule The
World's performances this season have been the even and professional
distribution of his energy and his hurdling. It could be said that his
hurdling is among the most impressive of any of the novices so far,
appearing to respect his obstacles he clears them fluently and on a
correct stride. The only time this deserted him slightly was when
narrowly defeated over 3m on his second start, where three out and two
out he perhaps didn't adjust himself quickly enough. In his races Rule
The World settles very well; he is not keen and doesn't pull which is a
very interesting aspect of his overall profile: he moves through his
races evenly and comfortably and over 20f he has outclassed his rivals
with the minimum of effort. Venalmar had the same kind of campaign (one
typical of the trainer in general): four runs capped off with a win in
the Slaney Novices Hurdle then kept fresh until March. Venalmar's Slaney
win had more substance but even if Champagne Fever hadn't have run
poorly Rule The World gave the impression he would have won in smart
fashion and his overall profile coupled with a strong, powerful build
looks set to give him a big chance of going one better than his
half-brother with the prospect of better ground likely to play to his
strengths. Venalmar, First Lieutenant, Rule The World: a stellar cast of
talent that his trainer has guided to this race in recent times and it
is that characteristic skill that suggests Rule The World is here to do
it now just as much as next season. Stalking him will be a hurdler
potentially out of the top novice drawer, however.
In a race of very fine margins it may just be raw speed as a hurdler that edges THE NEW ONE
to the line first. He won the Warwick trial for this race and was
runner-up in the HQ version on heavy ground in late January, grabbed
late to be beaten a head by At Fishers Cross. Prior to this narrow
reversal he had won all three of his hurdles starts (6L 6th in the
Champion Bumper) on soft and good to soft ground. Two of his four starts
have come away from Cheltenham resulting in facile successes of 26L and
16L. Of far more interest are both the simple fact that he has been to
Cheltenham twice to race over the Neptune trip; and then the qualities
he displayed in those races. Both the esteem in which he is held by
connections and his gradual curve of progression add to his overall
profile. The New One's first race at the track was on good to soft
ground on his second start. In contrast to his later visit, this run
(beating Village Vic nearly 3L) foregrounded a measure of grit and
stamina, staying on strongly to assert up the hill with both horses
pulling 20L clear of the third. Village Vic did not go on to compliment
the form at all in two subsequent runs but his latest 6th in the Betfair
Hurdle was a solid effort. The New One's second race at the track was
on heavy ground. The race was quite clearly defined for a trial with the
third, Coneygree, and the winner, At Fishers Cross both openly
considered Albert Bartlett types after the race, probably before.
Despite being closely grouped on the long run to the last flight The New
One was able to 'quicken' around 3 to 4L ahead of his rivals but the
move was either too early or too tiring in the ground and his lead was
eroded just before the line.
The New One has demonstrated an ability to travel strongly through his
races although it should be mentioned that his hurdling is sometimes far
from fluent. Whether he actually quickened or not coming down the hill
last time out is quite an interesting question. He may have just been
running at a higher tempo than his staying rivals who were about to dig
into their stamina reserves. What may have happened was a pace
differential - The New One still moving strongly at one (fast) pace
running downhill at the moment his staying rivals were switching off the
bridle to race behind it. If The New One had truly quickened away then
he probably would have opened up a winning gap although on better ground
he may actually change gears which would perhaps be decisive . The New
One's run style could be akin to those horses capable of a long
sustained run at a very high tempo rather than a cruise-and-quicken
style. For the Neptune, staying right to the line after having the speed
to be put into the race turning the bend is a crucial component and so
far The New One has demonstrated this. Better ground may prove quite
important to The New One. This is not because he cannot cope with soft
ground - he clearly can - but because his sustained run to the line once
down the hill will be much more assured on goodish ground than, as seen
in his run at Cheltenham on heavy, if the ground was tiring making
sustaining his gallop to the line more gruelling and punishing. A
fascinating runner and a leading contender he can become the top avenger
and put right his trial loss on the biggest stage of all.
Selections: THE NEW ONE e/w & Rule The World e/w.
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