Jezki is trained by the same stable that produced 13/2 shot Steps
To Freedom for the same festival race off the back of a four-month
break from racing. Jezki is 2 from 3 in bumpers and 4 from 4 over
hurdles, including two wins at G1 level in Ireland, the Royal Bond and
the Future Novices Hurdle. In the Royal Bond he beat the Festival Bumper
winner Champagne Fever in a close finish, asserting late on but was
perhaps most impressive visually when beating Waaheb last time out by
6L, travelling well and surging clear after the last to score
decisively.
The win over Champagne Fever is significant because Jezki finished 12L
8th to that rival in the Festival Bumper at Cheltenham in March but over
hurdles was clearly able to turn that form around. He has therefore
clearly improved for the switch to jumping hurdles. In terms of form
this is quite strong form but it is worth noting that the horse that
finished 1.5L second to Champagne Fever in the Festival Bumper, New
Year's Eve, was dispatched easily by 7L by The Henderson trained River
Maigue although it was NYE's debut over hurdles.
The form of his win last time out also appears solid with the well
regarded Waaheb running well in second and the third having recorded a
victory over the exciting Ned Buntline. Jezki clearly handles soft
ground well and has raced exclusively this season on this surface, 4
times over hurdles and once first time out for his flat race warm up. He
raced on goodish ground for his 2 bumper wins but was well beaten on
good ground in the Festival Bumper. In that race Champagne Fever set a
strong gallop and maintained it. Jezki travelled ok and moved from
around 12th to around 6th but got taken off the bridle before the bend
and could never make significant progress after before fading from the
2nd rank into 8th.
It seems to me that the stable were not sure about the ability of their
horse. They got him ready very early for this season (October 10) and
with the horse responding well to racing they have 'made hay' as it were
winning four on the bounce. As mentioned earlier however, it has to be a
major concern that the stable were even thinking of resting the horse
completely until March after the performance of Steps To Freedom (14th
SP 13/2) in last year's Supreme Novices. Equally, the Supreme is most
often a race that requires a recent run to confirm well-being but more
so it is a race where a lot of the time the winner is kept either under
wraps for the season or on a constant low-boil even if winning, with 2-4
season runs the norm. Jezki has had 4 runs already all on soft ground
and we are still to see the New Year. A fifth run has been mentioned
also and at this stage it would make sense to wait and see how Jezki
performs in his next race before considering him a major player for the
Supreme, as if he fails to make the track before March he will make
almost no appeal at all. His potential rivals are all biding their time
and keeping their hands much closer to their chests.
Dodging Bullets
Fourth in the 2012 Triumph Hurdle and third in the 2012 Christmas Hurdle
(heavy). He has won 2 of his 6 starts over hurdles but neither of those
came in his first season over hurdles where he was beaten three times.
He has since won twice on good to soft ground. He is a flat bred that
lost his first seven flat starts, winning his final two.
Dodging Bullets carries an unusual profile in that he ran in the Triumph
Hurdle in his first novice season, which ended without a victory. He
now tries this race. Whilst Dodging Bullets has clear ability what is
less clear is how curved his progression is, if at all. Still, he has
proven himself over track, trip and likely ground when winning the G2
Sharp Novices Hurdle in November (although caution is required as the
last six winners of that race finished 090040 - Steps To Freedom the
last representative finishing 14th in 2012).
On his final flat start Dodging Bullets gave Hisaabaat 7lbs and beat him
half a length by outstaying him over 10f. Over hurdles seven months
later Hisaabaat (2nd) beat Dodging Bullets (4th) 4L off levels in the
Triumph, outstaying him. Hisaabaat most likely lacks the residual class
of Dodging Bullets and in this respect we can accord the latter a
tangible amount of progression - he came out bouncing to win two and
finish third in a recognised Champion Hurdle trial (whereas Hisaabaat
went backwards). In the latter of his two wins (the first was a
formality) he beat River Maigue 1.5L again "staying on gamely" and
giving that rival 7lbs. That was, however, River Maigue's debut over
hurdles and that rival has since showed handsome progression on his next
start.
Nonetheless, Dodging Bullets does present something of a riddle. He has
beaten the (at time of writing) Supreme second favourite giving him
7lbs; he has finished 4th in a Triumph hurdle; he has finished third in a
G1 Christmas Hurdle on unsuitable ground; he is officially rated 156;
he is housed in one of the powerhouse stables and is their number one
contender for the race. Why, then, is he not favourite nor even close to
it?
It is perhaps fair to assess Dodging Bullets so far as a horse that has
had numerous chances to showcase elite level novice ability but having
failed to do so he becomes to look anchored and a touch exposed in a
race where form in the book matters little, sometimes not at all. The
answer to the riddle may be that Dodging Bullets is extremely game,
honest and durable - he tries like mad - with the ability to finish in
the first five. He lacks a turn of foot but can use his mental strength
to stay on with effect in his races and he will likely require a strong
pace throughout (not always guaranteed) to show his best. He will need
to run once more in preparation for the race.
My Tent Or Yours
Runner-up to The New One in the 2012 G2 Aintree Bumper. He has won 2 of
his 3 starts over hurdles on good to soft and soft ground. In three
bumper and three hurdles starts he is yet to finish outside the top two
places.
My Tent Or Yours' first run over hurdles was notable in that he beat the
future (and easy) G1 Challow Hurdle winner Taquin Du Seuil by nearly 2L
in receipt of 5lbs. On his next start he was beaten by stablemate
Chatterbox on heavy ground that his jockey reported he failed to handle.
His third race was so deeply impressive that he was propelled to the
front of the betting for the prestigious Betfair Hurdle, a path trodden
by the similarly owned horses Get Me Out Of Here (Won Betfair, second in
Supreme) and Darlan (Fell Betfair, second in Supreme). He is as yet not
a certain starter.
What stamps My Tent Or Yours as potentially one of the most exciting
novice hurdlers of the season is the sheer power with which he moves
through his races, in part reminiscent of Sprinter Sacre over both
hurdles and fences. As that reference indicates, however, this could
also be a key weakness when assessing his chance in a Supreme Novices
Hurdle (Sprinter Sacre finished third in a high class renewal). By not
using his energy reserves efficiently he may 'tank' (jockey's
descriptions of his keenness) to the front but be unable to sustain a
run to the line at the required speed. Against that, he does not throw
his head around or 'refuse' to settle which is the biggest concern in a
talented horse (much like Sanctuaire over hurdles). The power displayed
in his races suggests possible progression to G1 elite level races in
open company in the future but the question is can he run an even enough
race to ensure his movement through the gears bears fruit in a Supreme.
In this respect his next race is possibly crucial. Running in a fiercely
competitive large field handicap hurdle as a novice can have both
positive and negative consequences: In the Betfair Darlan fell in 2012
which appeared to slightly affect his Supreme run/ride in which he was
second; Get Me Out Of Here won his Betfair and that success may have
helped him mentally and physically run a top notch race to be just
touched off in the Supreme. It is worth recalling very recently that
extremely quiet, unambitious preparations have arrowed the bullseye: i)
having fallen on debut and been beaten in the Challow, Al Ferof took in
two very weak races for facile wins before taking down the Supreme; and
ii) Cinders And Ashes' last two runs were in uncompetitive three runner
affairs on heavy ground before he notched festival glory.
What will perhaps matter most with My Tent Or Yours is the extent of his
mental progression and preparation and whether or not his next run
benefits this or not, as well as handling the occasion of the day and
race itself. To that extent his next appearance will be interesting to
monitor for what has been widely reported as the stable's choice of best
novice hurdler in their yard.
River Maigue
Has won one of two starts over hurdles, on heavy ground. He was second
to Dodging Bullets (gave 7lbs) after pulling/being keen and staying on
in second having been outpaced by the winner at a key stage on debut
over hurdles. His win came at Kempton beating the younger New Year's Eve
(debut) easily by 7L.
River Maigue is currently enjoying a typical Supreme Novices preparation
from his connections. He travels well and although he is often keen
early on he has displayed the ability to finish off his races quite
strongly. It appears that he ranks quite highly in the pecking order of
novice hurdlers within his powerful stable. He was perhaps caught out by
a much more streetwise and professional racehorse on his debut and
despite having to race off level weights when they next meet it is
possible he can finish in front of that rival if his progression matches
his potential at this early stage of his career. He is likely to have
one more run as part of completing his quiet preparations for the
Supreme and if this run sees further progress there is every reason to
think he will be a leading player in March. His trainer has stated that
he copes well with a lot of work at home indicating mental as well as
physical strength.
Melodic Rendezvous
Winner of the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle (heavy) he has won 2 of his 3 starts
over hurdles, both on heavy ground, with the same deep underfoot
conditions for his 7L second to Champagne Fever at Punchestown. He was
beaten on his hurdles debut at Exeter by the cruising Mr Mole (good to
soft).
That Melodic Rendezvous has yet to race beyond 17f is perhaps surprising
given the pre-season feelings of connections that two and a half miles
would be the horse's optimum at this stage. This was perhaps reinforced
at Exeter where he was beaten by a slicker, quicker rival. At Exeter he
was prominent along the home stretch just behind the leader and in front
of Mr Mole but the latter cruised past him causing Melodic Rendezvous
to switch around his rear as he couldn't go with him. Stamina and no
lack of determination seemed to be dragging him along and although a
jink and a bump from Mr Mole didn't help his momentum over the last he
wasn't going forward in a hurry.
Tactically at Cheltenham on his second start they were in no rush to be
prominent as he was held up the whole way before smoothly making ground
to be ahead of a tightly bunched cluster of horses over the last where
he stayed on powerfully up the hill, chased home by Royal Boy who he
would then crush in the Tolworth. One thing worth noting was over some
hurdles he went up, over and kind of clamped his front end down, making
it a slower process than ideal getting away front the hurdle.
The Tolworth hurdle is usually the preserve of more staying types with
the notable exception in this context of Noland in 2006 (won the
Supreme). More prominent than at Cheltenham, he took a little while to
close up on the leader after that one injected a final kick to the last
flight. He grabbed the ground to move alongside and fractionally ahead
for a while before forging on late to score decisively.
We can see that Melodic Rendezvous is progressing with racing. His
attitude is admirable and he has given his all to the line in each of
his three races this season, suggesting mental strength. At times on
deep ground he has given the impression at times in these races of
travelling sweetly but on the whole it is worth noting that he has as
yet been unable to really outspeed a rival at any point. It is unwise,
perhaps, to reach to a conclusion about his likely ability to display
pace on better ground at this stage. It can be recalled recently how a
more staying type in Al Ferof benefitted from a pace war in a Supreme
Novices Hurdle. Another run may tell us more.
Un Atout
Unbeaten in one bumper and both starts over hurdles, all three races
have been on heavy ground. There was an eleven month gap between his
sole bumper win (January 2012) and his hurdles debut (December 2012).
Described pre-season as a "lovely big horse" by his trainer Un Atout
presents at this stage the ultimate under-the-radar profile. Raced only
twice, only on heavy ground and in weak contests he has outclassed his
rivals at times on looks alone: he does indeed have a size about him and
it is perhaps here where we can caution the 'could-be-anything' tag.
Raw, immature, a future staying chaser; he also raps the top of his
hurdles quite often. Granted, his paper profile tilts towards that which
so often underlines the winner of this contest but it is perhaps worth
displaying the patience of his connections to date when assessing his
chance of a toe-to-toe, helter skelter Supreme on better ground at a
stride quicker than so far. His next run, needless to say, will be most
informative.
Puffin Billy
Winner of the 2012 Kennel gate Novices Hurdle he is unbeaten in two
bumper and two hurdles starts on good to soft, soft and heavy ground. He
has won his four races by a total of 36 lengths (17, 9 / 5, 5) and been
visually impressive in each of them.
Said by his trainer to be quite highly strung Puffin Billy has relished
the soft ground he has encountered over hurdles winning both his
contests on the bridle. In some ways he has a similar run style to My
Tent Or Yours (keen, high class cruising speed) and a similar paper
profile to Un Atout (unbeaten in weak contests).
On his latest start Puffin Billy jumped his final two hurdles really
well; prior to that less so, a mish mash of getting in to close, not
being on the right stride and hitting the top bar. As with one or two of
his market rivals, mental preparedness could be quite important for
this horse: his keenness may be affecting his hurdling rhythm and whilst
a faster pace on better ground should help him in this respect it would
be interesting to see more from him in this respect on his next start.
Progressing well and with an impressive engine, he is a very interesting
contender if acquitting himself to run an even race to the line.
No comments:
Post a Comment