First Lieutenant
2012 RSA Chase runner-up. He has won 2 of his 11 starts over fences.
This is his second season over fences. He has not won any of his last 8
chases - the last 4 of his novice campaign and all 4 of his runs this
season. First Lieutenant won the 2011 Neptune Novices Hurdle. He has won
(career) on good, soft and heavy ground. His best run over fences was
when runner-up in the RSA (beaten 2.5L). He has never won a G1 or G2
chase.
First Lieutenant has run with great consistency over fences without
winning for a long time or showing a level of progression in his races
commensurate with a potentially top class staying chaser. On all known
evidence First Lieutenant had his ideal conditions in the RSA (3m &
good ground) and was beaten fairly by Bobs Worth by 2.5L. In the
Hennessy Gold Cup this season First Lieutenant had race fitness/practice
under his belt and was in receipt of 1lb yet was beaten over 8L by the
same rival. That form has a very solid feel to it as both he and the 2nd
place horse, Tidal Bay, finished in almost the exact same proximity to
each other in the Lexus Chase as they did at Newbury. Although it can be
said that at Newbury First Lieutenant was in receipt of 7lbs and
therefore may have improved to get closer to Tidal Bay off level weights
in the Lexus this line of thinking is off-set by the likelihood of
First Lieutenant failing to stay the extended trip at Newbury and
benefitting from a return to 3m and equally that the 3m trip would have
inconvenienced Tidal Bay more given that he had won over 30f on soft
ground last season and was only able to prevail in Ireland in the final
strides of the race.
First Lieutenant has run over a full array of distances and on a range
of ground and his consistency shows that he often runs an honest race
but falls short of being top class over fences. Bobs Worth outstayed him
in the RSA last season and even more comprehensively over the extended
trip at Newbury and it is hard to see any reason why he should get any
closer to Bobs Worth at Cheltenham, particularly as that rival is much
less exposed and more open to improvement at a track on which he excels.
It is worth including in calculations the possibility that the 8L gap
between them when they last met will be extended under Gold Cup
conditions.
Silviniaco Conti
Winner of the 2012 Betfair Chase (beating Long Run by 2.5L) he also won
the Charlie Hall Chase by 11L. He has won 4 of his 7 starts over fences
on good, good to soft and soft ground and is unbeaten in his last 3
starts. He is the winner of a G1 Chase - his best run to date was
his most recent - and was runner-up so Grand Crus in the Feltham Novices
Chase in 2011, staying on powerfully to close the winner down on the
run to the line. It is worth noting that following his debut in this
country he has never run in a double-figure field.
Silviniaco Conti's best run last season came in the Feltham novices
chase at Kempton (although his 13L beating of Champion Court at AIntree
was a smart run also). At Kempton, he was outpaced mid-race by Grand
Crus' injection of pace but he stayed on stoutly to close down his
tiring rival to a 2L deficit. Grand Crus finished 3rd (beaten 14L) in
the King George this season following a breathing operation.
Silviniaco's novice season was most likely one of preparation and growth
and he duly missed the festival after a flat run (4th) in the
Reynoldstown before his impressive win at Aintree. He clearly summered
well and was produced early to dismantle the Charlie Hall field before
an impressive display in the Betfair Chase, beating Long Run who then
went on to win the King George for a second time. Long Run was clearly
not asked to race to win at all costs but that should not deflect
attention away from the the athleticism and superiority of Ruby Walsh's
mount on the day.
He has not raced since November 24th and it is possible that he will go
to the Gold Cup without another run, although this is not confirmed at
the time of writing. It is important to wait and see if he reappears
prior to Cheltenham as another run would help us to learn more about
him. His form and the style of his last three wins entitles him to a
place at the top table in the staying chase division and the extent of
his improvement curve is impossible to gauge going into the race, making
him one of the least exposed and potentially most exciting challengers
on any ground.
Sir Des Champs
Winner of the 2012 Jewson Novices Chase he has won 5 of his 7 starts
over fences on good, soft and heavy ground. He has yet to win so far
this season (2 starts). He has also won at the festival over hurdles in
the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle on only his second
start on these shores. Until this season he was unbeaten. As with some
other contenders his best run at the time of writing was his last one
but he did not win or place, he was a very close fourth in the Lexus
Chase over 3m on soft ground.
Sir Des Champs' Jewson win was much more about style and the impression
he left than substance. It is important for his overall profile that he
has bettered that run this season. In the Jewson his two main market
rivals both disappointed and the quality of the race overall was lacking
with every horse crossing the line at notable intervals. Still, he
cruised round in a fluent, powerful rhythm and could be called the
winner some way out. He then outclassed inferior rivals at Punchestown.
This season no emphasis has been placed by connections on remaining
unbeaten. Indeed, if we are to take the post-Jewson comments of his
trainer at face value then quite the opposite has been planned: "There's
only one race for him next year and that's the big race on the Friday"
with comparisons of quality made to the outstanding Florida Pearl. His
season to date has backed up this view, contesting the top races without
appearing to have been prepared for a full tilt at them. No match for a
race fit Flemenstar in the John Durkan (20f) on heavy ground (beaten
5L) he got closer to that rival when 4th in the Lexus (3m), making
sustained late headway after some less than athletic jumping on soft
ground. Given both his festival wins were on good ground there is every
reason to suspect that Sir Des Champs will improve when presented with
the conditions of his target race following a more exacting preparation
in the build-up. A huge threat to all if so. He will most likely race
once more where he needs to affirm his seasonal progress in some way.
Bobs Worth
The 2012 RSA Chase winner. He has won 3 of his 5 starts over fences
(having won 4 from 4 over hurdles) on good and good to soft ground. He
has yet to race on going officially described as soft or worse. In his
novice season he ran in the top RSA trial races where a breathing
problem was eventually identified, emerging from corrective measures to
win the RSA Chase by 2.5L from First Lieutenant. His best run was
winning the 2012 Hennessy Gold Cup where he beat Tidal Bay and First
Lieutenant. He has run once this season at the time of writing.
Bobs Worth is not particularly big - he would be overshadowed in
physical terms by horses such as Sir Des Champs and Long Run. However he
dwarfs many others with a combination of top class ability and a huge
desire to win. A measure of his progression since a breathing problem
was diagnosed is that he beat First Lieutenant by 2.5L in the RSA but by
an increasing 8L in the Hennessy, where he beat the future Lexus winner
Tidal Bay (gave 6lbs) by a comfortable looking 3.5L, picking up the
pace progressively on the final circuit and surging to pole position
without looking to relent.
Bobs Worth is unbeaten at Cheltenham and unbeaten in double-figure
fields over obstacles which is quite remarkable and this part of his
overall profile coupled with his successful battles with potential
rivals in March highlights him as an outstanding candidate for the race.
Although recent history suggests it is unlikely to be soft on the
Friday it is something to bare in mind given that he has yet to compete
on such a surface; it does appear that sounder underfoot conditions
complement both his tactical pace and his capability to run to the
limits of his stamina at the top level. It is not easy to see why any of
the horses he has beaten already should be able to run closer to or
beyond him in March. It will therefore be fascinating to see how Bobs
Worth copes with the winners of the Betfair Chase and King George. A
very worthy favourite at this stage.
Long Run
[Having spent a lot of time analysing him (successfully!) for the King George he needs evaluating in relation to HQ, but in short soft ground becomes important to him for a Gold Cup bid]
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