Ryanair Chase 2014 - Towards Raceday

* Personal order of preference indicated by descending order of reference

Winter is a season of recovery and preparation
- Paul Theroux

Which may describe two of the leading contenders for this contest. As does something else, because nothing describes the 2008-2013 Grade One Ryanair Chase more simply than the fact that all bar one of the last six winners (with Albertas Run counted twice) ran in the King George VI Chase in the same season and Riverside Theatre was second in the race in the season before his win. The structural reasoning behind this preparatory golden pathway can be left aside here; but that we are looking for a top class horse to emerge as the winner is - until the evidence presents itself otherwise - not in doubt. 

First Lieutenant ran with great credit in this race last year. He has become a metronome for Grade One races but, Aintree last season apart, he has never really threatened the top ranks often enough. He has been analysed in detail elsewhere and is talented but on any ground over any trip his energy distribution is too even and lacking in power behind the bridle. If others falter he can go close, however.

Benefficient showed he had progressed into open company elite status when backing up his Irish Arkle and Jewson Novices Chase wins from last season with victory in the Grade One Dial-A-Bet Chase (17f, Soft) at Leopardstown. Last season he ran five times prior to beating Dynaste at Cheltenham (20f, GS) whereas this season he has run only twice (bar a seemingly random flat run in September). His trainer admitted to working him too hard prior to his run over three miles at Wetherby, where in the lead-up to the race he had worked Benefficient with the all-or-nothing input of Flemenstar. The strenuous workout apparently hollowed the Beneficial chestnut. Yet the mental and physical resolution that was the hallmark of his Jewson Novices Chase win emerged once again at Leopardstown: recovery and preparation combined to deliver an effort that made his running after the last fence stronger than his rivals. 

The question mark for Benefficient is residual class. With his Charlie Hall Chase excursion finishing with a tailed off effort his only run with intent this season was his win over two miles. The dominance of King George runners in this race shows the extent to which stamina is a pre-requisite under normal conditions - it is possible that this was the reason for starting in the three mile Charlie Hall Chase but the plan went awry. His beating of Dynaste at the Festival is covered in more detail below, but there were few stamina concerns evident given that he was sent into a positive front-running gallop from the off. He stayed there until brushing through the top of three out at which point Dynaste, then alongside him, flew the fence and the differing physical momentum of the two horses at that point separated them by a few lengths as they made their descent (with Captain Conan jumping in between them). Benefficient's two mile pace gallop had been jolted slightly but it was nonetheless impressive how, gathered in and allowed to fill up down the hill, he was able to command a transfer of energy behind the bridle to such an extent that he could surge to the head of the field once more after jumping the last impressively. He was aided in that quest, without doubt, by the fact that Captain Conan was emptying and that Dynaste was feeling the strain of his own pace injection three out, compounded by a preparation for the race that had not been physically straightforward. Dynaste tired notably close home, for example. 

Energy Delivery Systems: Captain Conan (left) tired dramatically into fifth; Dynaste (middle) tired notably close home but held second; Benefficient had experienced a more robust season of the three and his physicality had been hardened as a result

Benefficient is therefore a strong, tactically versatile horse that tries extremely hard on any kind of ground. He can be asked to lead, race prominently or in smaller fields be held off the pace a little. He is capable of using his energy with great efficiency. So for him it depends on the extent to which a Grade One Festival gallop over a furlong further than the Jewson Novices version affects the class of performance delivery against horses that have shown themselves adept at Grade One level over that distance or further. In that sense for a horse that thrived on racing in his novice season it is perhaps a slight concern that he has not stood more racing this season. Whether that inaction compromises his effort remains to be seen.

On first glance Al Ferof's career has stalled. That is obviously true to a point at the time of writing but the interesting question is to what extent has his season been mapped out that way. His ebullient owner had dreamed of Gold Cups after his Supreme Novices Hurdle win in the hottest renewal of recent times. His Paddy Power Handicap Chase win began to align him with the Imperial Commander pathway and - delayed by a tendon injury - that initial point has now been reached. Imperial Commander went from winning the same handicap, to a no-show performance in the King George owing to a physical conformation issue that hindered right-handed participation, to winning the Ryanair Chase on his next start (and later on the Gold Cup itself). Al Ferof's progression was halted just prior to the King George of 2012, but he made the 2013 version to run a fifteen lengths third to Silviniaco Conti (winner) and Cue Card (second), but never really looked comfortable on his second start back from absence on tacky, soft ground.

As highlighted at the start, running in the King George is significant because it is an indicator of the kinds of residual class and stamina levels required to win what is a demanding Grade One Chase at the Festival (Imperial Commander himself was beaten 72L in the race prior to his Ryanair Chase win; Albertas Run by 69L prior to his first win). In that sense and in its own right, Al Ferof's run was pleasing enough especially in light of the fact that the two in front of him were top class animals. What was not so pleasing was the extent to which he appeared to fold into his shell on his next start at Newbury in the Denman Chase (24f, Heavy), beaten twenty-five lengths by the mud-loving Harry Topper having been in close touch to that horse rounding the final turn, albeit still with a long way to go in the race. Analysing the run is a question of physicality, training programmes and trainer intention. On the surface the run was disappointing: he had been expected to win or at least improve upon his Kempton run but he faded in the manner of a horse with a physical or stamina issue. However, it could also have been the case that he was still fatigued from his King George exertions and/or that again the very deep ground was not to his liking on the day; and it is possible that he was sent to the race purely in preparatory terms - the race is one that his trainer has often used for horses he is preparing for the Festival and the instructions may have been to race for as long as possible before easing off with the expectation that he would tire, leaving over four weeks to train the horse into peak physical condition for March. 

Vain Pursuit: But was Al Ferof expected to run any differently in a race so close to his seasonal target

There are many unknowns: the weight of the horse pre- and post-race; the extent to which he had been prepared at home for a race that is not a target race for top horses; what was revealed privately after the race to connections by the jockey and so on. What we do know is that his trainer has long thought the Ryanair Chase as the most suitable target for his horse. His owner and former jockey repeated the Gold Cup mantra prior to Newbury, but Paul Nicholls always had Silviniaco Conti for the King George-Gold Cup route. Given that Al Ferof won a Supreme over two miles and travelled smoothly and easily through a Paddy Power Gold Cup over 20.5f, allied to time off the track and two defeats over three miles, this race offers the grey the chance to exhibit his potential once again where better ground would be a big help. His overall profile remains in-keeping with Ryanair Chase winners: Supreme winner, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, King George third; and he is with a trainer adept at bringing talented horses back to their peak or somewhere near it. It remains a big task but one well within the realms of possibility.

Recovery and preparation will also hold the key to the chances of DYNASTE. From the outset it is worth noting that his trainer has quite a poor record in Graded races at the Festival, something he will be hopeful of improving upon with his talented grey. To do so he will need to have had a smooth pathway to the Festival with his horse following Dynaste's recovery from pulled muscles sustained in the King George VI Chase as a result of which he finished fifth, beaten 47L. Had he just had an off day or problems with the ground the run would have been a positive - the timing of the race some eleven weeks before the Festival is ideal for keeping a horse ticking over through the winter months in preparation for March; but picking up a physical issue is not ideal. That said Dynaste runs well fresh; with this in mind it can be seen how his overall level of physicality will determine the strength of his effort in this race. 

Over hurdles Dynaste tangled three times with Big Buck's for a combined defeat of seventy-two lengths, sufficiently inferior enough to indicate that he would make a better chaser and that three miles would likely be too far for him. He was swiftly transferred to fences thereafter where he won three in a row prior to an interrupted pathway to the Jewson Novices Chase. His wins included a Grade One Feltham Novices Chase over three miles on heavy ground but the description is misleading: two fences were omitted and such was the moderate class level of his opponents that the race was run at a crawl early on and Dynaste won the race easily with a surge of tactical pace jumping four out. 

A similar pattern emerged in the Jewson Novices Chase. He tracked Benefficient in third or four place before moving alongside on the run to three out at which point he was moving so well that he outjumped his rival and held the race advantage going downhill to the final turn. It was a fairly bold move although whether it was determined by the jockey or the horse himself is hard to say. Dynaste had travelled well and injected decisive raw pace into each of his previous three chase runs. The difference here was that he was meeting a top novice with hardened race conditioning and a resilient mentality. Although capable of staying further than 20f (as he would later prove in the Betfair Chase) Dynaste began to physically tire from his own lack of race fitness and conditioning and approaching the last Benefficient had transferred his energy behind the bridle to continue galloping with power, moving past his rivals to win comfortably, his jockey celebrating well before the finishing line. 

Jolt: Benefficient ploughs his legs through the top of the third last fence, halting his momentum briefly; Dynaste flies the obstacle, moving strongly within his comfort zone at the time

Leader: the descent has confirmed the difference in momentum at the third last fence; Captain Conan advances also; gathered together and "filled up" running downhill, Benefficient now has energy to transfer behind the bridle

Left Leg In (image zoom): The difference in energy distribution from the third last to here, the final fence, sees a turnaround in fortunes; Dynaste and even more so Captain Conan are left with diminishing reserves of energy. Benefficient is more powerful behind the bridle

Fatigue: Captain Conan is fading into fifth; Dynaste has almost been caught by horses from a long way off the pace; Benfficient is dominant

The front two produced impressive performances in different ways and it is likely that this race brought Dynaste to a physical peak at Aintree next time out, where again he was visually impressive this time over three miles on good ground. His main opponent (Third Intention) was one he had already outclassed in the Feltham Novices Chase and is a non-stayer to date over three miles (W0 L5). 

Three miles would remain Dynaste's distance assignment for his first season in open company, where he ran the best race of his career at Haydock in a high class renewal of the Grade One Betfair Chase. This race would see the association between Cue Card and the adjective "stayer" grow closer, but the analytics of the race confirm that it was a masterclass in tactical pace control from the front, rather than a performance that relied in any meaningful way on stamina or, more accurately, sustained racing energy and power from behind the bridle. Cue Card was still a highly impressive winner, backing up his win with a creditable second in the King George. This provides the context for assessing Dynaste's effort in chasing Cue Card home at Haydock, where he gradually and continually crept closer and closer to the top class front-runner without in the end being able to land a telling blow from behind the bridle. The future King George winner, Silviniaco Conti, was just behind him although admittedly his trainer was using the contest as a prep race for his staying star. Dynaste's energy distribution was incredibly even but it was too even - the class of opponent and energy-sapping distance stretched out Dynaste's On/Behind bridle ratio into a straight line, whereas before there were spikes of decisive energy bursts. 

Just Too Far: Dynaste (left) splits two horses of the highest class in the Grade One Betfair Chase. If operating with maximum physicality he will be a potent threat in March

Over a shorter distance, on better ground, against slightly less imposing elite horses, Dynaste should prove capable of delivering a high class Grade One performance. As the Jewson Novices Chase showed he will need to be operating at maximum levels of physicality to do so. His trainer has sometimes struggled to prepare his horses in this respect with regard to the Festival and top class races; it is therefore a test for him as much as it is for Dynaste.

King George VI Chase 2013: Review (plus Lexus Chase 2013)

The Preview for this race captured the significant aspects of the contest. The long-time favourite and eventual runner up Cue Card was beaten, as highlighted, by:

• Not being able to control the pace of the race, by not being allowed to stop-start the gallop. He was therefore denied a fundamental aspect of his physicality: the need to "fill up" in order to continue racing within his comfort zone;

• His own peculiar On/Behind bridle ratio. As pointed to specifically, Cue Card either wins comfortably through sheer class or is "swept aside" because, once challenged, it means he is forced to switch behind the bridle where his ability is dramatically minimised. Here he faced an elite opponent able to go his gallop, but also able to race with power behind the bridle, something Cue Card lacks;

• The ground, but only possibly. As a top class elite horse Cue Card handles any ground, but a good ground King George may just have helped him "yo-yo" his pursuers in a way that he was simply unable to do here, with Silviniaco Conti able to challenge him throughout, even after a mistake six out. But equally there would still have come a point when Cue Card's comfort zone petrol hit Empty, and the outcome of that would have been the same, perhaps just closer to the finishing line. 

• And, of course, a better staying three mile chaser with a more suitable physicality.

Some of the general discussion after the race mentioned how it was "strange" that Cue Card should "just apparently empty" between two out and the last. But it is only "strange" if there is a failure to identify beforehand the specific characteristics a top class horse is likely to exhibit. In the Preview the key question was posed as:

This leads us in a way to Cue Card's conundrum. What is the ratio of the amount of energy and class he expends on the bridle (racing comfortably) to that expended when challenged?

It received a quite specific answer during the race. His On/Behind bridle ratio was illuminated "down the stretch". Joe Tizzard said: 

"I think Paul [Nicholls] and Noel [Fehily] had a good game-plan," he commented. "They sat close, virtually touching me all the way, so I was never able, at any stage, to get in front and fill him up. I was starting to come under a bit of pressure [going to the second-last fence], but I thought I had enough to keep me going. But generally it was a good run and the best horse on the day won."

Here Tizzard is making specific reference to the tactics employed in Cue Card's Ryanair Chase and Betfair Chase victories, repeatedly slowing the pace in front and filling up with oxygen then going on again. He highlights the point at which Cue Card was required to switch behind the bridle, coming under pressure towards the second last, so after that jump he would need to switch fully and start to race and grind and use different qualities. But his energy distribution at this stage was shot through. The vast majority of Cue Card's racing is done within his own comfort zone and at a level few can cope with. But at elite level one or two horses (other than Sprinter Sacre) are able to gallop with him and in staying races those horses have a different On/Behind bridle ratio - they can race effectively and with power off the bridle, displaying a more even curve of energy distribution, and Silviniaco Conti was one of those horses. 

Notably, the jockey as well as opinion in general saw the problem of defeat as a matter of ground, or of ground and track, or of ground, track and tactics. All these are almost useless as indicators of race performance in this case. What was important was Cue Card's physicality. It was a terrific run, for sure; and the best staying horse won, for sure; but performance analysis suggests a Gold Cup run would be suicide. He is probably near unbeatable under the conditions of a Ryanair Chase, however. 

The winner, Silviniaco Conti, confirmed the abundant promise of a Gold Cup performance curtailed by falling three from home. All being well, he will now get another chance to test himself against the reigning champion, who was just behind him when he departed that contest. 

Here, at Kempton, he was excellent. The mistake six out, where he briefly lost close touch with Cue Card, should just have reminded him enough of the sharp mentality he will need to display at Cheltenham but that apart he matched Cue Card's level of residual class and elite pace gallop, jumped with prowess and powered on to the finishing line in a way his main rival could not. Rounding the final bend his reins were given a shake, his neck a slap, asking him to begin to switch behind the bridle and when Joe Tizzard looked round anxiously as his horse emptied after two out, Noel Fehily knew he had won. He did not have time to think upon it because in an instant he swept aside his rival; the hard work had already been done. He had been looked after in the Betfair Chase, racing wide and without razor sharp fitness, but even so he showcased his top class elite characteristics in defeat.

"The concern for Sil Conti and probably the reason he was not taken to Kempton for the King George last season is the amount of energy he will be required to use to track the kind of pace that unfolds in a King George and how this impacts upon his ability to then stay on."

Last season this kind of Preview comment may have carried more weight, but in this contest the winner made it look errant and overly worrisome. In tracking an outstanding speed horse, he then had the iron will and energy distribution curve to maintain his effort to victory, confirming himself an outstanding staying chaser who, all things being equal, is capable of giving Bobs Worth a war. 

As it transpired, Al Ferof would have needed extraordinary levels of residual class to win this contest, making the award of slight win-preference to him over his stablemate a touch fanciful. Tracking a fiercely competitive elite gallop pace constructed by two hard-fit horses in peak physical condition was always going to be tricky given his own preparation, should that scenario emerge, and emerge it did. A more sedate or uneven gallop would have helped him. He went notably left at two or three fences, enough for this jockey to have to grab the reins and guide him back to where he wanted him but in general he went through the race as the third best horse, but adrift.

When the winner made a slight error six out he jumped well to close up the gap in third place. When the front two played their cards approaching the final bend the rest of the field was well beaten but Al Ferof's residual class kept him galloping and he stayed on resolutely to cross the line some 14L behind the impressive winner, a total of about four seconds. In terms of challenging for the win in this race, it can be said that Al Ferof failed his first 'acid test'. Yet this race will have broken him down physically in such a way as to instil strength into his frame. It was his second start following a year off the track and with more training and another race in his legs, it is entirely possible he can bridge some of that four second gap to his stablemate under the conditions of a Gold Cup. Should connections wish to wait, they can switch to the Ryanair Chase or skip the Festival altogether. A lot hinges on the specifics of his physicality following this contest and the extent to which he can be trained with the rigour required, but that it was a run full of promise is not in doubt. 

Mount Benbulben can be analysed in the context of other races. He ran well overall in fourth, 2L behind Al Ferof, and will have good claims in the Irish Hennessy.

Dynaste finished fifth but some 30L further back and was never in the race. He was reportedly sore following this race.

Long Run's glorious career at the top level is now over, he was a fantastic racehorse, winner of a Gold Cup and two King George VI Chases, chasing home the legendary Kauto Star in another. 

Riverside Theatre, Champion Court and Menorah were always likely to be outclassed in this contest.

Lexus Chase 2013

In contrast to the King George, the Lexus lacked any kind of elite pace gallop for most of the race resulting in all the runners running most of the race well within their comfort zones. There was rarely more than six lengths covering the field the whole way, and four from home four lengths covered first to last. 

That the highly exposed ex-French veteran Rubi Ball led the field for most of the way, and that he was accompanied by the elite-but-exposed First Lieutenant who challenged him for the lead going over the last fence, ultimately meant this was a race that the reigning Gold Cup holder, Bobs Worth, had to win. With the field extremely compact for most of the way, the runners had gradually starting rolling with more intensity from about five out so that after jumping two out they were all behind the bridle and racing proper. It was still a three mile contest, still soft ground, but if anything the nature of the race now asked who could race behind the bridle with the greatest power and class. What would otherwise have been a fairly normal race result was given its stamp by the performance of the winner, who would have won further the more distance was added after the line. Prominent throughout, rolling proper from two out, rounding the final bend Bobs Worth engaged the 'surge' mode behind the bridle that seemingly channels his energy to his legs and, as at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup, he powered to the front appearing to get stronger and more dynamic the closer the line came into view. It was a reminder once again of why he is so well suited to the peculiar configuration of Cheltenham but when fit and firing he should really be suited to almost any racecourse. 

One 'round-up' saw a markedly different race whereby "The Nicky Henderson horse quickened up after the last to wear down the game First Lieutenant". So at the same time Bobs Worth was accelerating rapidly (having raced behind the bridle for some time) yet in the next breath wearing down an opponent with stamina (having used up nearly all his energy by quickening/accelerating). None of this is accurate in any way. As alluded to elsewhere, the use of traditional racing language can often be hugely unsatisfactory. 

Bobs Worth, the winner of the Lexus, will clash once more with Silviniaco Conti, winner of the King George, as the winner of the Gold Cup tackles the horse what would have asked him the most questions from that Gold Cup. Elite racing often has a regularity, a structure, that in some cases is as discernible before the season starts as it is during the season itself. Both horses have to make the race, of course, and should one or both not do so the landscape would shift once again. 

Of the vanquished, First Lieutenant ran well once again in defeat, his twelfth in thirteen starts over the last two years. Sir Des Champs lacked any kind of tactical pace in fourth and the pair will likely clash with Mount Benbulben in the Irish Hennessy. Lyreen Legend ran well in fifth, and it is still surprising to see Unioniste campaigned in races beyond his capabilities at such a young age. 

Preview: King George VI Chase 2013

The performance of Cue Card in the Betfair Chase lit the fuse to a wire wrapped around the trapped energy of national hunt racing enthusiasts. What appears a fairly straightforward race to analyse was in its aftermath spun across the realms of social media and expert review to extremes, from a win/race that 'proved little' to a win that opens the door for Cue Card to remain unbeaten forever, achieving misty ratings well in excess of 400 over staying trips. Or something akin to that. 

There were doubts about the official-versus-actual times and distances of the race but these are irrelevant. Of far more interest is what the animals themselves were doing, the how and why, relative to each other. Perhaps the most surprising thing about responses following the race was the near total absence of attempts to connect Cue Card's Ryanair win to his win here, at Haydock. Given that he is characterised by quite a rare commodity - he is an extraordinarily high class front runner - this is even more surprising. In the 2013 Ryanair Chase Review it was noted specifically that:

"His residual class is very high (as suggested by his Arkle Chase run): in this race he was at the front throughout, continually pressed by Champion Court, but that pressing was well within Cue Card's comfort zone. His jockey reported after the race how he was able to continually change the pace to his liking, getting numerous breathers into his mount which no doubt helped him finish his race so strongly. Setting off on the second circuit was an example of this, he was able to move Cue Card forward easily into a clear lead to again stretch the pace, before reducing it later on"

The Betfair Chase was a carbon copy of the Ryanair Chase, only over slightly further. Cue Card ran from the front; was 'pressed' for the lead on the first circuit well within his own comfort zone by horses with exposed limitations (Roi De Mee and Long Run); slowed the pace subtly by being held onto more around each bend, then stretched the pace again in the straights (at Haydock the field spread wide, meaning he wasn't being pressed even though Silviniaco Conti was almost as forward as him at times); and finished his race strongly as a result (as noted some time after by Paul Nicholls, among others). The effect of all this was compounded by the fact that this was not a Festival race where every opponent was hard fit and peaking but a seasonal opener for his three main rivals. Cue Card himself had a race fitness edge (whether he actually needed it or not) having been third on his seasonal debut at Exeter. They will be discussed in turn but Dynaste (second) ran a race of quality with good, even energy distribution and appeared beaten on merit but may have more to offer; Silviniaco Conti easily closed up on Cue Card when the leader was getting breathers but raced as wide as possible throughout each straight (indicative of racing 'safely') and having chased and closed upon Cue Card's final pace injection he tired approaching the last fence; and Bobs Worth was simply 'not ready' for this race in any meaningful way, with his trainer this season most likely only concerned with regaining the Gold Cup in March.

We can see already that a King George, firstly, then a Gold Cup in March, will present much different tests for Cue Card's elite characteristics. It is a peculiar habit to be intent on concentrating on ratings, distances, form and so on but it is him, his physicality, that is most crucial for determining his future performances. Kempton is a prime example because the curious question arises of what happens when they cannot control the pace to get the breathers into him?

The natural early pace down the first straight spreads the runners...

By the time they are ready to exit the first bend they have closed up as a group due to the pace slowing...

After the slower bend the pace is naturalised again and the runners are spaced out. Cue Card has gone clear for the time being.

There is no need to be dogmatic about why Joe Tizzard, who is excellent on him, rides Cue Card for this effect. We don't know the limits of Cue Card's stamina, nor his ability, but we do know he has limits. In both of his recent Grade One wins it may have been that they were a little unsure about his stamina; or that they wanted to use his speed; or that they wanted to unsettle his opponents generally; or that they wanted to inhibit the staying types with stop-start tactics. The simplest answer is that they are concerned only with their own horse, that as a front-runner it makes little sense not to control the race to best effect, and that given his class if they do that with him they pose a big problem to any opponent. This is why the King George is an entirely different test for Cue Card rather than, say, Dynaste. At Kempton there is no let up in the pace. All his opponents will be hard fit and all will appreciate an end-to-end gallop. The corners at Kempton are tighter; Ruby Walsh has described it as going around on roller skates because as soon as horses start to turn they are flung into the straight and carry on the gallop. The term "speedy track" refers to this aspect but it is often used erroneously with a King George, where actual "speed" has no real relevance. The winner has to be able to gallop at an elite pace (elite gallop pace is different to speed, which indicates acceleration) for as long as it takes to break the will of those that cannot do so. At that point, with most runners nearing exhaustion, the winner and challenger battle on behind the bridle, with stamina and force of will. There is no "speed" in a King George. The peculiar constellation of the strength/depth of the race, a prolonged elite gallop and the demands on the horses legs made by the track as a result combine to produce a winner with (the) highest residual class and the right blend of physical characteristics.

Cue Card will likely be prominent (unless there are fears of a pace burn up after the start), as will Al Ferof. Silviniaco Conti will be behind them, and Dynaste behind him (roughly speaking). The four main players together with anything with less residual class choosing to get a look at the cameras from the front will produce a gallop that will then be hard to slow at any stage. Out in front, even on goodish ground, Cue Card will need to gallop harder and for longer than in the Betfair Chase. Unlike Haydock he will have top class close-up company all the time. After that, he will then have to race behind the bridle to race with and fend off the challengers. Whether he is capable of doing so can be left to individual opinion but understanding the very different nature of his task here is the interesting aspect. Not least as whatever his performance level here, he will then be asked to race for even longer under similar conditions in a Gold Cup. This leads us in a way to Cue Card's conundrum. What is the ratio of the amount of energy and class he expends on the bridle (racing comfortably) to that expended when challenged? In Cue Card's profile it can be noted that owing to his sheer level of class he has defeated opponents without being seriously challenged. Correspondingly, perhaps, when beaten he has been a little bit 'swept aside' i.e. he has done his racing but then had no response to the winner. This happened in the International Hurdle and Supreme Novices Hurdle; understandably when beaten by Sprinter Sacre; and also at Exeter first time out, where a huge weight concession made life very difficult. This is therefore Cue Card's biggest test to date: can he produce a finish, quite possibly a war, with a rival or rivals of similar ability (Silviniaco Conti) or potentially similar ability (Al Ferof)?

Many of the aspects of physicality discussed regarding Cue Card apply to Dynaste. There is little doubt, on all known evidence, that Dynaste at this stage carries less residual class than Cue Card. His runs last season were very much on a progressive curve. Despite defeat his Jewson Novices Chase effort had a lot of merit and his training for the race was reportedly interrupted by small physical niggles. He went to Aintree a stronger, more complete horse, and won impressively, but only at a respectable level. His run in the Betfair Chase rewarded the patience and training plan of David Pipe. He has always been an ebullient traveller and part of this has been because he has been racing against inferior rivals quite often. For his Feltham win, for example, the pace was very slow early and when it was increased it was done so by Poungach. There were also two fences omitted. By four out Dynaste was travelling so powerfully still that he had little other option than to jump the fence and bound on, which he did. Third Intention gave chase, as he would later at Cheltenham and Aintree. He was not asked to hide at the Festival, however. Prominent the whole way he was sent to the front fully three out to try and grind away his rivals and stuck to his task admirably. He was the best horse at Aintree but at Haydock it was notable how much of an even race he ran: initially held up but never far away in part due to the field closing up together when Cue Card eased the pace around the turns. He didn't do anything quickly (rapid surge and tire, rise and fall movements often signify a physical problem) but instead stalked his way patiently into the race and into a challenging position two out, from where he could only maintain his gallop pace, unable to affect the leader.

He may have needed the race; he may have been on the outer limits of his stamina at that level of racing; or, put another way, he may just lack some of the residual class of his rivals in this division. Many will point to his Feltham win and wand vague notions of "the track" about but as described above that race is not worthy of meaningful comparison. In the King George, the elite gallop will claw at any minor chinks in Dynaste's stamina and/or class, meaning he will have to race harder, for longer, and then find a great deal more off the bridle than he was able to muster at Haydock. He is a very good horse already but defeat at Kempton (the possibility of defeat is mentioned for each runner under analysis) would leave the Ryanair Chase as perhaps his most viable encounter at the Festival, particularly if there was rain about, although he should now be physically mature enough to handle the drop to a shorter trip tactically under any conditions.

Silviniaco Conti was reported by his trainer to look "a few kilos heavy" before the race and then referred to how hard it had been this season "for some reason" to get horses ready first time out, a sentiment shared by others (including Nicky Henderson). Cue Card, too, had clearly benefited from his opening race. If the counter-view to that proposed here holds true and Cue Card did not dictate the shape of the race from the front then Cue Card is likely more vulnerable than his position in the market suggests. If he stop-started a gallop well within his own comfort zone his levels of class mean he can still pose a threat with a more even, stronger gallop because, as noted, we are yet to learn fully about his stamina. If he ran (as Tom Scudamore suggested) at a gallop that took no prisoners and then stayed on he will find it almost impossible to confirm that form with Silviniaco Conti and probably Dynaste, who were able to get alongside him comfortably without the aid of a run.

In some ways Sil Conti's run was just as impressive given his own level of fitness compared to the year before, where he had a run in demolishing a Charlie Hall field. The intent this time around was very much for Sil Conti to run his own race. He was taken purposefully to the opposite side of the track down each straight, well away from Cue Card. As Cue Card filled up around each bend, Sil Conti was taken diagonally toward him, close up, then taken away to the far side of the course again. This is indicative of a prep run. Having won the race last year, Sil Conti could have been asked to race with Cue Card given that Ruby Walsh rode a similarly tactical style when beating Long Run on him as Cue Card did here under Joe Tizzard. This did not happen. For sure they tried to win with him, no doubt.

Attack: Fehily is aware of a) Tizzard's tactics and/or Cue Card's unproven stamina and b) how well his own horse stays, and (from a few lengths back) launches his horse at Cue Card before three out. Dynaste is never far away.

This move would have been interesting had Silviniaco Conti had race fitness on his side but instead he is just behind Cue Card going over the second last and cannot find any more, staying on for third as Dynaste himself closes up as much as he can to take second. It is only a simple task then to try to imagine the outcome if Cue Card had been pressed or at least 'kept honest' by a top class horse the whole way round, moving faster around sharper bends against race fit elite rivals.

The concern for Sil Conti and probably the reason he was not taken to Kempton for the King George last season is the amount of energy he will be required to use to track the kind of pace that unfolds in a King George and how this impacts upon his ability to then stay on. In many ways this underlines how, similarly to Cue Card, we know quite little about Sil Conti in a top class staying race context. As the above graphic shows, he clearly has elite gallop pace but his trainer views him as a "thorough stayer", citing how at home he would work with Neptune Collonges (Grand National winner) whereas Al Ferof would work with a two miler. The Aintree race following his Gold Cup fall cautiously backs this general view. Again never far from the pace he made a crashing error which set him back but he was subsequently able to grind away resolutely behind the bridle to chisel away at the leading duo. Given his Gold Cup exertions the performance is most notable for the level of mental toughness he displayed and again here he gave his all. At Kempton it will be interesting to see how closely he is asked to chase the initial pace, and how much impact he can then make from behind the bridle under King George conditions. It can be reasonably argued at this early stage that of the King George principals, it is Silviniaco Conti who would be most suited to a Gold Cup war at Cheltenham and he is in a patient position whereby defeat here would likely enhance his claims for that race.

Whereas we cannot be certain about HQ for Al Ferof, but only because the flow of racecourse information was suspended by a minor tendon injury. Looking back from the future retrospectively after the event, he may have been the 'obvious winner' in many ways. He was beaten 8L by Cue Card in the Festival Bumper but reversed that form with eight hurdles to beat Cue Card nearly 7L in the Supreme Novices. Until trying to jump four out too early in the Arkle Chase, Al Ferof had comfortably matched Cue Card's pace on the front end. He won the Paddy Power Gold Cup on soft ground in the manner of a top class horse in waiting (Long Run failed to win the race off 157 before winning his first King George) and Al Ferof, long targeted at the Kempton showpiece by connections, was around 5/1 second favourite when his injury occurred. In the intervening time, the King George has been the sole aim. Stable jockey Daryl Jacob was urged to go to Ascot to ride him in a match race with French Opera. From the front, jumping easily and naturally, he sauntered home by 8L and after a constant flow of support he now occupies roughly the same position in the market as twelve months ago.

We cannot know where the runners will position themselves after the first fence, but it would not be unreasonable to assume that Al Ferof will be prominent; he may even help Cue Card lead the field. If that occurs, a definitive answer will be given as to the limitations, if any, on Cue Card's elite level staying power. Both he and Silviniaco Conti are by resolute stamina influence Dom Alco, but Al Ferof has clearly showcased the greater capability to run at the sharp end of elite level pace gallops. This is why the unforgiving distance of a Gold Cup may serve Silviniaco Conti better than Al Ferof, at this stage of their careers at least. Al Ferof's distribution of energy when racing is probably the most even of all the runners in this field: he has a formidable blend of elite pace and desire to race behind the bridle; his mix of residual class, potential and physicality gives him the characteristics to win this race. Ruby Walsh, without a ride in the race, still has no doubt about his suitability for the contest: "Al Ferof was impressive in the Amlin 1965 Chase and he jumped super. From Swinley Bottom he was always going to win. He looked in control of the race so far from home. It was a really taking performance and I think he had the King George written all over him." In terms of "if defeated", as with the other runners, much hinges on the nature of the defeat (mistake, fall, merit, stage of race etc) but it is notable that Al Ferof's Ryanair price has contracted correspondingly to the approaching time of the King George. This is understandable given his earlier form with Cue Card at shorter trips but it does not account for the trainer and owner having little time for the Ryanair Chase in this context. Old fashioned blue ribbands only need apply for a horse they believe is potentially out of the top drawer. The King George will be the first acid test of that hope.

Gold Cup 2014 Depth Model: Update

Pre-Season Depth Model:

Update following the Betfair Chase:

Gold Cup

Elite
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
Cue Card

Elite with Exposed Limitations
Sir Des Champs
Long Run
First Lieutenant
--------------------------------------
Potentially Elite
Al Ferof
Dynaste
Lord Windermere/Invictus

A detailed review of the Betfair Chase itself to follow.
Cue Card is moved to occupy elite status for the Gold Cup as well as the Ryanair Chase. His final destination will likely depend in the first instance on his performance in the King George; in the second instance on the smoothness of his preparation for the Festival in the new year.

Dynaste remains 'Potentially Elite' as this was his first run in open company. It was an excellent run but he is now tasked with reproducing the same level on his next start. Al Ferof showed his wellbeing at Ascot and the King George will define his season.

Invictus is placed alongside Lord Windermere now that he has made the five-day declarations for the Hennessy. Both have strong chances in that race, as may have a couple of others.

Two of the three highlighted with "Limitations" have shown why they were poor long-term projects. Long Run has been beaten a total of 62 lengths on his first two starts this season; First Lieutenant has finished third and then a remote fourth, beaten 26L.