2013 Arkle Chase: Review

A comfortable win for Simonsig - beating Baily Green by 2.25L (17f G/S) - but not in the manner expected.

The poorest quality Arkle Chase in terms of depth since Tidal Bay's easy win in 2008. From the beginning of the season only one horse could be identified as having the sufficient residual class to win the Arkle (from a betting perspective this structural occurrence will be discussed in the second part of The Value Myth).

Most likely as a result of a physical ailment, Simonsig decided to forego his previous composure and refused to settle. He jumped adequately until the ninth but even when ploughing through that fence he didn't pause and immediately moved onto the haunches of the leader, indicative of a desire to keep running regardless of circumstances: his trainer diagnosed a dirty scope post-race as evidence of his horse "running away" from something ailing him. He certainly ran to the front well enough and never looked in danger of being caught but the fact that the limited Baily Green (lost his first seven chase starts) was able to hang on to his shadow reveals just how much energy Simonsig had used up unevenly (unnaturally) before the latter stages, where he was urged and rousted along to the line. For a horse that has an abundance of sheer speed - he is the only horse allowed, on occasion, to work with Sprinter Sacre and was seriously considered for the Champion Hurdle prior to being committed to the Arkle - there was never really a point at which he displayed his marquee attributes. Some analysts have raised the spectre of this run being round about as good as he is over fences but such a view has little substantive worth, akin to the 'rumours' of Simonsig being unable to jump fences properly at the very time he was being far too flamboyant over them at home. In races with adequate depth and the prospect of sincere rivalry it is unwise to foreground comments from connections; this is not such a race: Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson were at pains to point out in equal measure both their relief at having won the big race and the raw disappointment of a performance a long way below what they had expected (and to an extent that which he had shown over Christmas and the previous season in the Neptune Novices Hurdle).

Once again therefore we are reminded of the strong emphasis placed on physical soundness and preparation at the Festival: Simonsig had not raced for two and half months; his skeletal infrastructure and oxygen pathways had not been broken down so as to guarantee rebuilding and recovery to elite level strength for the task at hand. Many lesser animals have wilted as a result although few would have contested a weaker championship race than this one. Nonetheless the race was unsatisfactory and the structure of Simonsig's running characteristics are still to be revealed in full: stepping into open company his physical robustness will be tested far more than it was in his novice season. He will have to run hard at a more even pace for longer against better horses and jump accurately in so doing for his winning record to match up to the high levels of residual class. He is perhaps most closely matched to Cue Card in terms of character and they could well meet on the Ryanair runway in March.

In some ways extraordinarily, Overturn was constantly referred to as either the strongest challenger or the likeliest winner, a thought process that from the outset was entangled in its own one-dimensionality. The Arkle Chase ruthlessly exposes any attributes that are not designed for an elite national hunt assignment over fences that relents in neither pace or intensity for over two miles. It was therefore a somewhat strange but not uncommon leap of faith to infer that a horse with 37 career starts prior to jumping a fence would be capable of transforming its physical and technical capabilities to meet the demands of the hardest race of the season. Overturn's performance was not surprising (beaten 30L) but the lack of basic questioning from racing media outlets of why a now jack-of-all-trades would win the most prestigious novice chasing event was little short of incredible. The high-end media prominence and marketability of the horse's trainer, rather than actual racing aspects, no doubt explains the situation. On the track, Overturn failed to really dominate Conquisto until passing the two mile pole at Doncaster (19f) and Tetlami never went a yard at Musselburgh. Both are handicappers and that is where Overturn's rating of 150 will lead him also.

Following his heroic effort Baily Green was pulled up at Aintree and beaten sixty lengths at Punchestown but had enjoyed a fruitful season before stepping up in class.

Arvika Ligeonniere displays some residual class. He has a lot of size with the build of a three miler but already an eight year old that size brings about physical fragility which has now been exposed twice at the Festival. He had also displayed a tendency to run with the choke out leaving him vulnerable in races where the opposition do not fade away. Away from the Festival his power, class and ability in deep ground make him a force in Irish contests over a variety of trips.

Running away? Simonsig finds more when required in the Arkle Chase